Open 601: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[insanity018]

VOTE: Mathdino

Long time no see!

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And before you die, give me a Vig-shot so that I can Nightkill Mathdino again. ^_^

Sadly, I can't give you a vig shot but I can help you kill Mathdino.

Join me on his wagon!

VOTE: kyndy because her first post weirds me out.

How so?

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Ah you meant kyndy's second post haha. I was getting confused as to why her RVS joke was different to any other username/avatar joke. Hmm, I sortof see what you mean. What I am a bit uncomfortable about with kyndy is the way she makes herself appear non-confrontational. ie ':P' in first post and 'jk' in the second.

I agree that cop/doc claim needs to happen at some stage. But I'm not sure when it would be best. The advantage of doing it today is probably that scum would be unlikely to have spent much time planning what they are going to claim yet.

I definitely disagree with people claiming the day before they are supposed to activate. I think that would make it easier for scum to predict who may or may not be protected. (The last time I played Diffusion, the scum team lost partially because they were paranoid of doc protects and thus made some less-optimal night kill decisions.)

3. Roles claim after they've been used. Obvious reasons, allows docs to protect better targets.

Only for cop results I think. Doctors shouldn't claim unless they protected somebody on a night where there was no successful kill.

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I've also been wondering what's stopping us from all claiming, we can build up a tonne of obv-towns.
Like, if a Day 1 doctor claims doc and ask for a day 1 cop. Then the doc will die whatever that night, but that's not a huge loss as they'd be VT for the rest of the game anyway.
Plus the scum are forced to kill the doc otherwise they basically let an IC alive.

Let's say you claim Night 1 Doc.

Scumteam can try to figure out who you are likely to protect and therefore consider killing someone else.
You're still alive and not an IC.

What is the advantage?

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Seriously, let's not claim nights.

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I'm fairly sure scum don't have day talk.

Okay, you can be town for now, Mathdino.

I'm finding the claims that wgeurts wants to draw out when there is no causing an IC or anything quite fishy.

VOTE: wgeurts

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I think the best way to ensure survival of cops/people in general is to have ambiguity about how many and who the docs are in a given night. As I have said, this contributed to scum losing due to paranoia causing bad night kill decisions. (Open 559)

Similar to your scenario: Day 1
Scum 1 claims N1 doc
Player X claims N1 cop....

This cop is probably going to die...

^This is effectively a situation that follows what wgeurts suggested in post 26.

I've played one game with wgeurts and modded one. wgeurts was town in both and I can't remember him doing any rolefishing or making odd suggestions.

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@You have any ideas, is everything 'pretty good' or 'not bad' to you?

Really people. DO NOT claim which night you will be acting on.

@wgeurts, explain how you hypothetically not dying tonight would make you more likely town than not.

p-edit: Precisely! That is why nights should NOT be claimed. Maybe later on when there's less people remaining and some conftowns but DEFINITELY not today.

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I am a doctor. Popcorn to: you have any ideas

In case you haven't noticed, I am

not

resisting claims. But your idea of having doctors or cop for that matter claim the day before is flawed.

What happens if somebody claims Night X Doc and then nobody claims to be that night's cop? That's the doc for a night outted for what benefit?

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^ Do you have any other thoughts on the game so far?

@Metal, why did you want to know who Mario is thinking of investigating?

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For now MarioManiac who are you leaning towards for an investigation?

why would you ask this

Assuming he is the N1 cop he will now be treated differently by everyone for the next 13 real world days. So I was hoping that since he claimed so early in the day there was something in someones post so far that he saw that gave him he a gut feeling.

And why does who he might investigate matter to you?

At least 4 people here will be cops some day. Why should we be treating them differently? Are

you

going to be treating him (or yhai) differently now?

VOTE: Metalcyanide

[quote="In post 62,

What happens if somebody claims Night X Doc and then nobody claims to be that night's cop? That's the doc for a night outted for what benefit?

As doctor that then would become a VT dying is better than a potential later cop dying. I think this is better than taking a potshot at blocking the kill.[/quote]

*sigh* The scumteam doesn't have to shoot the doctor. They could still kill someone else who they perceive as more of a threat, including a future night cop.

All this is doing is giving mafia more information to make an informed kill choice with.

p-edit: Theoretically, everyone (who is town) could be a night 1 cop/doctor.

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wgeurts, my point is that there are many situations where the doc claiming the day before has limited or no advantages for town while merely giving the scumteam additional information.

Because getting information out of people matters to me.
Yes there will be multiple cops but this one claimed N1 cop on pg 3 of D1 seems really early to me even for this mass claim plan to say what night your power works, so with that in mind I was hoping he saw something, maybe something that stood out from playing with others before. He also answered so the next part of my question

I don't buy this. Mario is the only person you have tried to get information from. Right after he claimed to be a Night 1 cop.

Did it occur to you that someone (wgeurts) had also been pressuring N1 cops to claim?

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Anen.

So we have two claimed day 1 cops. Right?
I think they should ckeck each other. They are doc-protected, so they are guaranteed to survive the night. We don't risk that the cop checks a person who dies in the same night.

Not a bad idea. There is one thing I'm wary about though. If one of wgeurts/Rubeus is scum, one of the claimed cops could be killed tonight which would then be a waste of both investigations.

(Restarted RVS)
Enough setup talk

Why should we restart RVS?

More objectionable is her 154. Sheepy, she's just unvoting to go along with everybody else. She says "since we all agreed," well, we didn't all agree, she's just going along with what the biggest voices are saying.

^ This is exactly what I was thinking.

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I dislike how SC shows up once people start talking about them. And still says nothing meaningful.

I'm a little worried about Soft-spoken. It feels like all of their posts are merely parroting what other people have already stated. The Marcrell vote is also rather weak imo.

Yes I treat cops differently in games where I'm scum. I try to get them lynched before they can investigate anyone.

Nope. It looks like you want to know who Mario is investigating so that you know if you should be worried about being investigated yourself.

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Reubus, so far your only contributions to the game have been to find out why someone voted you and why someone is suspicious of your doc claim. I get that you are busy or whatever but do you have a general idea of who are your scum and town reads?

And he's gone. This is ridiculous.
VOTE: Marcrell

Talk.

What is the point of pressure voting someone who seems unlikely to ever shop up in thread instead of say, continuing to pressure SC or anyone else you have concerns about?

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I'm at work atm so I need to read up more thoroughly but gut is that NM's entrance seemed town.

Fromage, there are only 7 cop claims listed in post 260.

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Okay. So we have 7 cop claims and 6 doc claims. All this means for now is that there is at least one scum in the cop group.

When I thought we had 8 cop claims, I thought this meant more likely that not NM would be town. As surely the last (scum) person to claim would be able to add up the number of cop/doc claims so far and pick the one which would result in a 7-6 split? Since this is no longer the case, that gut townread has been somewhat vitiated. I don't find the scepticism of claiming by itself particularly alignment indicative. But fully claiming after not liking even a mere cop/doc claiming seems contradictory.

@N_M

Why did you claim your night? I doubt you believed you were such a high priority nightkill target that you would need doctor protection.

Also:
No to no lynching.
And no to randomising doctor protects. This gives scum too much wifom possibility if any of the doctors are scum.

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There is evidence of Marcrell being online, yet not contributing. There is no evidence of any SC heads being online apart from when they post. Marcell is not even trying, and he tends to do that as scum.

Do you have meta that Marcrell-scum wouldn't even post in the game?

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Do you have meta that Marcrell-scum wouldn't even post in the game?

Wgeurts has and has promised us to show it.[/quote]

I was curious as to whether Mario had any actual knowledge of this or whether he was just parroting what wgeurts said.

As dodgy as N_M's claim is, it's probably best not to lynch him today.

Fromage, what is your opinion of Metal?

p-edit: NM should investigate whoever he likes (if he is town) and not reveal who that is until tomorrow.

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EDIT (I must stop messing up quotes )

Do you have meta that Marcrell-scum wouldn't even post in the game?

Wgeurts has and has promised us to show it.

I was curious as to whether Mario had any actual knowledge of this or whether he was just parroting what wgeurts said.

As dodgy as N_M's claim is, it's probably best not to lynch him today.

Fromage, what is your opinion of Metal?

p-edit: NM should investigate whoever he likes (if he is town) and not reveal who that is until tomorrow.[/quote]

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Because getting information out of people matters to me.

He directly states that he has a town motivation for his actions. Sure, it can be faked as scum but I still like it.
I don't think it's a scumtell that he asked Mario who he planned to investigate (53. I don't think that the the question helps to find the scumteam. However I don't see the scum motivation either. Wgeurts had announced that he'd protect Mario, so scum couldn't shoot Mario anyway.

To conclude, I lean newbtown on him. If he was town, he would be easy mislynch bait. However I'm a bit wary because he's been registered on the site for 6 months. Metal, could you please link us your completed games?

The thing is - I wouldn't say he has been making much effort to get information out of people. Asking Mario about his cop investigation is pretty much the only thing he has shown interest in.

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wgeurts,

I've always had the impression that you had a reasonable grasp of setups. So, how do you keep coming up with confirmed town? Particularly instances when you are that townie?

Nobody is confirmed town until they are investigated by a dead cop.
If someone claims an innocent on you, this only means that we must lynch them before you. And if the claimed cop flips scum, we can still consider lynching you.

Asking people why they aren't considering themselves as scum isn't scumhunting

Asking people why they call themselves confirmed-town when they aren't is scumhunting. For example, I know that I'm town. But I know also that you can't know for sure that I'm town.

^^This. (Yay?? Fromage and I think alike!)

If we're going to have paranoia on every cop claimed result we will gain almost nothing from then until they flip. Which is what I said.

And if we take every innocent claim at face value, we are practically begging scum to claim innocents on their partner.

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@Not_Mafia

@N_M

Why did you claim your night? I doubt you believed you were such a high priority nightkill target that you would need doctor protection.

MetalCyanide made the most sense in the middle of that whole massclaim, this is just a discredit thrown out with a weak token townread

How so? I don't think Fromage discredited Metalcyanide at all.

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Fromage, your case is quite sound. I am interested in what NM has to say. The only thing I disagree with you is about the initial reluctance to claim being scummy - so many replacements are told to claim upon replacing in that scepticism is probably normal. But obviously, NM then full claiming after this reluctance is bizarre.

Also, who wants to hear insanity argue against pre-emptive night claiming again? Looking at today's play, it's pretty obvious that we don't want to lynch the people who have claimed to have an action tonight. So any under pressure scum member is likely to claim that their actions is for the upcoming night in an attempt to delay their own lynch.

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I got it from here.

It would clear me as town or confirm him as scum, those are the only possibilities.

Well, you said 'clear' not 'confirm' but still. NM-scum saying he has an innocent on you does not clear you.

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Very well wgeurts - I misread that post.

p-edit: Finally something I can agree with you about!

I've been thinking how odd it is that the biggest wagons so far [Marcrell/NM] and SC have been because of lurky/non-existent posting. Would not be difficult for scum to try to push a bandwagon there. Aside from Fromage, Mario is the only one who has been on both.

Why is soft-spoken town?

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I still like the plan that the doctors claim the day before they act. Cops should only claim if they can be protected. Fake-claiming isn't easy under these circumstances and has clear disadvantages for scum.

Don't forget that all the cops are out in the open even if their night is currently unknown. If for example, many of the doctors reveal early nights, then scum can easily pick off the later night cops later. Alternately, if there are no claimed doctors acting on a particular night, scum know they can take a free shot at whichever cop they feel most threatened by.

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NM, the D1 plan was that cops only claimed when there was a claimed doctor to guarantee them protection for the night...

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re 343 Mathdino, I agree that it is unlikely that scum distributed themselves as 3 cops or 3 docs. I don't believe we need to prioritise lynching one group over the other at this stage though.

I've been staying off the SC wagon because I wanted to watch it but it's kinda weirding me out how it hasn't gained any steam. In fact NO wagon has gained much steam, probably because everyone's scumreads are currently unlynchable. The question on SC is whether that means his scumbuddies aren't voting for him (which would make YHAI town) or scum are afraid to jump on his wagon.

This is interesting. You are right. Even though SC has been one of the bigger wagons, it's still been progressing very slowly.

I could see SC as town apathy. I would expect lurking scum to simply throw around more fluffy questions or excuses why they can't post. (Like Reubus is currently doing actually).

I agree with Mathdino's 346 - An SC lynch would be low-information (aside from wagon analysis of course)

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I'm willing to vote MC if somebody explains the case on him (besides the awkard tone in all his posts).

My case on Metal is that the only thing he has shown interest in is who Mario is investigating. It betrays a mindset of concern about who that investigation target is - such as concern that Metal himself would be investigated.

Outside the N1 claimers, I think Metal is the best lynch for today.

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Welcome Persivul! Please claim if you are a cop or doctor. But not the night you are supposed to act (Unless you happen to be an N1 doc)

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- no claims prior to night actions

My hero!

innocent investigations are kept secret, and only revealed if a mislynch is imminent

I would have agreed with this but in my experience sometimes the cop gets killed or derp-lynched themselves before the result can be revealed.

So, leaning town on Persivul now for seeming to put some fair effort into those reads posts.

I have a question though:
Your main reason for leaning town on NM is due to thinking that there is no benefit of claiming N1 cop to Mafia. Well, the advantage would be to avoid getting lynched today. And NM has been one of today's leading wagons. Conversely, what would be the town motivation in NM claiming when he did? There is no way he would have considered himself a high priority nightkill target who needed doctor protection.

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pistachi0n, do you merely find Fromage's NM case objectively wrong or actually scummy? What are your thoughts on the other posts Fromage has made in this game?

It helps a little bit because it's highly likely that whichever group has the most claims has more scum.

Not necessarily.

Fromage's case on NM is better than any other cases. I have a townread on him for producing it.

What do you like most about Fromage's case?

What do you dislike about other cases? What are your thoughts on Metalcyanide's slot?


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Stray observation - how is Reubus still sitting on an RVS vote

--
Agreeing/disagreeing with arguments about the setup shouldn't be the basis for reads on a player but can definitely inform figuring out if someone's thought pattern is more town or scum motivated.

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@Mod: Can we get a prod on kyndy please?

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re Persivul 434 I agree with you that a 1 for 1 trade would be bad for scum. But we don't know that scum-NM would be a surefire lynch tomorrow. (eg maybe he knows that one of the doctors are scum who will screw the whole triangle investigate up).

I suppose misunderstanding of the plan for the day is possible though as there have been so many different ideas floated about the setup.

pistachi0n, what are your thoughts on Metal's slot then?

Thanks for the reminder yhai. Do you have any other comments on the last 6 pages?

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re Persivul 434 I agree with you that a 1 for 1 trade would be bad for scum. But we don't know that scum-NM would be a surefire lynch tomorrow. (eg maybe he knows that one of the doctors are scum who will screw the whole triangle investigate up).

I'd say that if the cop who was supposed to investigate him turns up dead, he's still likely to be lynched,

and

the associated doc will have some explaining to do. Could get a two-fer out of it.

Fair point. I wouldn't rule it out scum-NM as a possibility though. Avoiding a lynch will always have advantages over being lynched. The more I think about this though, I think that scum-NM would probably have been able to avoid getting lynched in other ways.

I agree; last minute scrambles aren't very strategic I've found and usually mislynch :/ I think we should lynch SC because they /still/ haven't produced a follow up reads list.

You have noticed that SC has been replaced right?

I just went back through kyndy's ISO and it has been painfully empty since 163 which is based mostly on agreeing/disagreeing with arguments on setup theory.

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Also, I'm starting to town lean wgeurts. Trying not to be biased because we disagree a lot about theory, his posts and questioning actually seem quite natural.

Although I don't really get this whole vote control thing. wgeurts, as you currently have Fromage as a scum read, why would you want to give him control of your vote?

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Welcome miih! (Also, we're scumday-buddies!)

As as town he has no reason to turn down this offer, scum giving you his vote to vote a scum read is always good. However if he's denies it, it shows he's not 100% sure Jazz is scum. His reason for his Jazz read is that me and NM are avoiding his wagon, and if he's unsure of jazz that means he's not sure me and NM are actually scum.

I don't get the impression that at any stage Fromage thought Jazz was 100% scum. Only that her slot is a better lynch that the other main wagons (himself and Metalcyanide - who Fromage has stated a townread on.)

Why did he change to jazz when NM, a scum read he's given reasons for is so much stronger than the Jazz one and both had equal people on the wagons?

The reason for this has been stated. He didn't think anyone else was going to jump onto NM.

Metalcyanide is also pinging, more subtly perhaps, for his no-lynch proposal and

what appears to me to be overly "safe" type of posting, i.e., posting 'safe' content without adding original content

.

Pot-kettle-black.

Agreed.

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@insanity

: what's your take on Fromage and wgeurts

I don't have much issue with Fromage pushing that NM case as I agree with large chunks of his reasoning (though am not as convinced as he is). And I think its inoptimal to lose his investigation if he is town. Adding more reasons to scumread someone after they have done something different seems normal to me? I just looked back and Fromage actually did have SC as a scumread way back. (279) Even though I disagree with his reasons here - There is a difference between lurking (someone like Reubus comes to mind) and flaking-out-any-second. (SC)

I also townread Fromage based on his proactive entrance into the game and stances he's made throughout the thread.

My townread on Fromage is also based on his proactive entrance to the thread and the stances he has taken throughout the thread.

I have started weakly townreading wgeurts. Somehow, he's one of the better looking among the N1 claimers. But I want to take a closer look at his ISO as well.

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To summarise my thoughts on Metalcyanide which I admit are spread out over a lot of posts.

- Majority of his posts are fluffy questions/setup comments
- Despite saying that 'getting information out of people' matters to him, the only thing he shows interest in is actively asking Mario who he is interested in investigating. And this questioning emerged straight away after Mario claimed N1 cop (the only claimed N1 cop at the time)
- He also mentions N1 cops being treated differently.
- Weak SC vote
- Thus, Metal has shown no interest to do any scum-hunting and his preoccupation with Mario's investigation target demonstrates a mindset of concern that perhaps Mario is interested in investigating him (or a buddy).

I also just realised based on this that Metal and Mario are probably not scum together.

Heh, I could have sworn that many others have stated interest in voting Metalcyanide. I'll have to have a closer look back at what they're actually doing because in light of this, I actually thought there were more votes here.

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Also, in the case jazz does flip mafia; fromage will be town beyond reason.

How so...?

I actually have no idea what to think of the vote deal because I have no idea why town (or even scum) would want somebody else to control their vote??

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I have no interest in lynching Fromage. As far as I can tell, wgeurts' case is Fromage didn't 100% believe Jazz/SC was scum (has been explained in thread) and uses pre-flip associatives (which are not scummy to take into consideration imo).

I have started weakly townreading wgeurts. Somehow, he's one of the better looking among the N1 claimers. But I want to take a closer look at his ISO as well.

This I disagree on. wgeurts is looking scummier to me. Building a case on and voting Fromage only to buddy with him a little later bothers me.

Good point, that is rather weird. If I had to describe wgeurts' play in one word, it would probably be 'weird.' Eugh... my read of wgeurts is shifting back to I have no idea.

What do you think of wgeurts' reaction his wagon? I like posts 568-570. They appear as town who is not afraid of their own lynch. I dislike that self-vote there but it happened because of a vote deal and I don't understand the point of the vote deal.

I'm oppose lynching wgeurts because somehow (stupidly), we have many outted N1 cops and I feel like we need the extra doc protect to give the cops some semblance of protection.


--

@miih

Is making you laugh a towntell for you?


--
Yay,

Titus!

Please don't be scum?

Why did you decide to vote wgeurts?

Never mind. You answered this later.

Hmm, my first thought of that plan was I'm wary of there being an announced investigation target who won't be doctor protected. But if the announced target is somebody who is being heavily scumread, I am okay with this. The other cop should investigate whoever they think is best out of the entire playerlist though.

--

Interesting that you observed this too. I told my wife (she doesn't play but likes to analyze my games with me) that Fromage and mathdino were very good but straight-forward players (which is how I would categorize myself as well), but that insanity is better, as she has a subtlety that we lack.

Thanks!

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Jazzmyn, I understand that you don't want to post in detail when you haven't read the entire thread (I am like this as well). But if you could post a general idea of who are your strongest townreads or people that you have had strong impressions of, that would be extremely helpful. You could even specify that these are your thoughts eg only reading up to page 20.

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Okay, I am generally liking miih's catchup post. (557) Good reasoning even though the reads themselves are not new.

I find her townread of kyndy based on being funny and making fluffy comments rather odd.

Not sure where Kyndy (575) or even pistachi0n's (592) overwhelming love for it is coming from though.

Persivul, thoughts?

I am also getting an increased desire to lynch Kyndy.

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Kyndy's or miih's?

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Dino

UNVOTE:

Titus, we had previously decided that there should be no randomness with doctor protects so that each doctor is fully accountable if any of the claimed cops die.

I will vote Jazzymn over Fromage.

But let's see if I can do this instead.

VOTE: Kyndy

Throughout this game, kyndy's posting has been extremely fluffy. She has been appearing non-confrontational by avoiding making any pushes or making significant contributions about her reads. 163 was her reads post but this is mostly analysis of post counts with reads based on how much she agrees/disagrees with setup theory arguments. I think she has been coasting upon peoples' perception of her as mislynch bait town.

I dislike kyndy's jump onto Fromage. (535) The timing of the vote is opportunistic. kyndy says that she finds it weird that Fromage accepted the whole vote deal but is not certain whether Fromage is town or scum. Yet, in doing so, she abandons the SC/Jazzmyn wagon that she had been strongly scumreading for so long.

p-edit:

Persivul, what's changed since here:

I mostly agree. wgeurts was getting me suspicious and I dug up some issues on Fromage for pressure questions, but he responded as I'd expect from town.

Do you think Fromage and wgeurts might be scum together?

[insanity018]

Firstly, congrats to Persival! You played strongly from start to finish and definitely deserved to pull off a win.

I am kinda disappointed with how the rest of the days went though. While getting those 2 guilties on Night 1 were (obviously) great, in a way they still hurt town by encouraging a quick lynch and effectively stifled discussion - a pattern that continued because town got confident and continued to quicklynch without much reevalaution. I never got to post on Day 2 and though miih was confirmed town by this point, she was unable to post on Day 4. I (with a bit of hindsight bias ) would have liked to have continued questioning Persivul about the way he suddenly flipped on Fromage and yet didn't believe in a Fromage/wgeurts team.

That said, gg everyone and thanks to Netherspite for modding! I don't think that there were any issues with the modding quality at all.