Provable randomness
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1-(6/7 * 5/6 * 4/5 * 3/4) = 58%?
are you sure the 1- is necessary? shouldn't it be just 42%?When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
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42% would be the chance that the assassin isn't lynched (6/7 chance they're not lynched D1, 5/6 chance they're not lynched D2, etc). 1 - 42% => 58% would be the chance the assassin is lynched.- GreyICE
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In post 7, TheButtonmen wrote:Town on average in the early portions of the game lynches worse then randomly, in fact setups are generally created to be slightly town favouring which means dice tags are the optimal strategy if they're allowed.
Really?
A random lynch on a 10:3 should give you roughly a 23.1% chance of hitting scum. I'd wager that we're better than 1:4 on day 1 lynches.ShowThat which is done out of love always takes place beyond good and evil
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In post 102, GreyICE wrote:In post 7, TheButtonmen wrote:Town on average in the early portions of the game lynches worse then randomly, in fact setups are generally created to be slightly town favouring which means dice tags are the optimal strategy if they're allowed.
Really?
A random lynch on a 10:3 should give you roughly a 23.1% chance of hitting scum. I'd wager that we're better than 1:4 on day 1 lynches.
When I was looking at Newbie games, this definitely wasn't the case. While this is anecdotal, when I first started I looked at the last 10 newbie games, and there was zero D1 scum lynches. I think I had to go back to 15 before I found a D1 scum lynch.- GreyICE
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From the fact it was 10:3, I'd like to point out I was discussing real games.
Newbie games are hives of scum and villainy, and while finding scum day 1 is easy, getting them lynched over the derpasaurus rex that is in the game (and typically in the SE slot) is hilariously difficult.ShowThat which is done out of love always takes place beyond good and evil
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Okay, just checked the last 12 complete mini normals, and it was 7:5 town:scum
Not a large enough sample size obviously, but I'd be surprised if the town was below random (which would be about 9:3)ShowThat which is done out of love always takes place beyond good and evil
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Any data set we use aside from newbies is going to be too small to be statistically significant, but there's the often-used statistic that of the 11 instances of 11:2 mountainous (40% EV) games run on mafiascum, town have only won one.- GreyICE
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We've run 11:2s? I'm pretty sure the data set you're discussing is a 10:2, and 10:2s are brutally scumsided. 11:2s are theoretically balanced.ShowThat which is done out of love always takes place beyond good and evil
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Mmmm. You're right that I may be thinking of the 10:2 era. But 10:2 still has an EV of 35%, which actual play was falling far, far, far short of.- GreyICE
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In post 108, Magua wrote:Mmmm. You're right that I may be thinking of the 10:2 era. But 10:2 still has an EV of 35%, which actual play was falling far, far, far short of.
While I do think that 10:2 has a demotivating factor that makes it shit (it's a setup where no lynching day 1 without talking is correct for fucks sake) I'm not sure a record of 9-1 is so far outside that, statistically. Regardless, I'm pretty sure there's setup components that skew off strict statistics (otherwise this game would be pointless).
I do think that it's impossible to avoid a random lynch if people really want to. You can use pseudorandomness based on things like the timestamp of moderator votecounts, for instance.ShowThat which is done out of love always takes place beyond good and evil
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The software I used to use to compile c# does not seem to want to work. So I did what I could math wise.
I figured if I was gonna find an error it would need to be a big one to send the 60% to below 50% and I did not find said big error. So your math is good
I did find it interesting that 6 player AITP was 50% ev with random lynching. I once believed 5 player was the most balanced version of AITP. Seems its actually 6
I designed something called WITP a while back. Can your code be applied to it to determine when random lynching gives each kingdom 33% odds and assassin 34%? There are 2 kingdoms in WITP so striving for 33%, 33%, 34% would be most balance I could get.When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
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In post 110, PokerFace wrote:The software I used to use to compile c# does not seem to want to work. So I did what I could math wise.
I figured if I was gonna find an error it would need to be a big one to send the 60% to below 50% and I did not find said big error. So your math is good
I did find it interesting that 6 player AITP was 50% ev with random lynching. I once believed 5 player was the most balanced version of AITP. Seems its actually 6
I designed something called WITP a while back. Can your code be applied to it to determine when random lynching gives each kingdom 33% odds and assassin 34%? There are 2 kingdoms in WITP so striving for 33%, 33%, 34% would be most balance I could get.
The wiki link is broken for WITP.- PokerFace
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When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly- Magua
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Not sure that town in WitP benefits from a randomly determined lynch, because the odds of a random person being on your team are < 50%, unlike AitP where the odds of a random person being on your team are (x-1)/x.
Most strategies fall apart because town has an incentive to lie about their allegiance.- PokerFace
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In playing the game it seems most balanced at either 7 or 9 total players. You can't have 8 players since you got 1 assassin, 2 kings, and 2-3 guards for each king (4-6 total). King A and King B are not on the same team and neither are their particular guards
Which do you think would be better balanced 7 or 9? I lean towards 7 as less players means less info for the assassin to find. In running the game I believe assassin has won 4 out of 6 times. One loss was with 7 and one was with 9. Three of the four assasin wins were with 9 and one of them was with 7When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
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here is an interesting example of why dice rolling is against your win-con
the overall odds of winning a 3-way with no clears as town is 1/3 assuming a random result. however, placing a random vote as town resolves this to a 1/4.
typically, people will withhold votes in a lylo until a lynch is decided on. in this case the 1/3 odds stay intact... but the second someone casts a vote without knowing for sure that it will be hammered, it decreases their odds.
they have a 50/50 chance of autoloss by voting town. if they miss this 50/50, they have the additional 50/50 of being crossed by scum and being hammered. the chances of casting a vote without knowing that it will be hammered are therefore 1/2*1/2 = 1/4
if everyone in town agrees to go along with a dice-roll, the odds are restored to 1/3, but this is unlikely, so the random vote decreases your odds of winning by a margin.
this also applies to scum, as a random vote turns a 2/3 into a 50/50- PokerFace
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because of this thread, I have decided to run
Contagion in the Palace
during the next marathon day with 4 guards, 1 king, and 1 assassin. (6 players total)
Running it should provide some interesting observations. Feel free to join it during the july 2-5 marathon weekend http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p6956066When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
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Wiki wrote: This should effectively limit discussion to zero outside day 1. And the assassin has even less means of protesting their lynch as it only take one player to eliminate the assassin with the disease. This version of AITP truly is a lottery.
What are you intending to get out of this?- vettrock
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In post 118, Magua wrote:Wiki wrote: This should effectively limit discussion to zero outside day 1. And the assassin has even less means of protesting their lynch as it only take one player to eliminate the assassin with the disease. This version of AITP truly is a lottery.
What are you intending to get out of this?
According to previous research on AITP with provable randomness, 6 players results in 50-50 odds for both sides
The first running of CITP was ruined by the mod revealing players' roles onlythey had selected who they would infect next. The player's role should be revealed once the player is infected. This isafterthey select their infection target.before
Yes, the game has a lottery element, but it may not be "directly" hindered or enforced. During the game the. While a player is selecting their target, anyone is allowed to post. Will you help town guards, as they select who to infect? Will you try to confuse the Assassin, as he selects who to infect?thread will not be locked at anytime
I'm basically running a game where provable randomness results in 50-50 odds. While allowing players to attempt wifom should they perceive it can better their odds. I plan to study if wifom is used in the heat of the moment. And how it is used in a heat that is generated faster than in normal AITP.
I am running this game during marathon weekend as its lottery element makes it unsuited for the main forums and I feel the heat/drama will increase in a marathon format without offending the mind sets of a player. Players get invested in month long games. Peoples feeling get invested in month long games. Peoples feeling get hurt in month long games. Something that is a lottery should not be an investment that could hurt feelings
I plan to update that wiki page shortly as its initial draft lacks some of the information given hereLast edited by PokerFace on Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:33 am, edited 3 times in total.- Magua
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@vettrock:That is bad for the same reason every single "Here's a role, you can't claim anything about your role or you'll be modkilled" role is terrible. It's very, very difficult to have a rule based on subjective interpretation.
@Pokerface:Good luck.- PokerFace
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I edited http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p6959915
do you mean that sarcastically or are you actually curious, Magua?When I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
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A little of column A, a little of column B?
I don't think AitP is a good setup or worthy of being played as-is (for the same reason I don't think 8 town:1 SK would be a good setup), but you're running an experiment and I can respect that and don't want to piss all over it.- PokerFace
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Well put
I have updated the wiki to better represent the purpose of CITP without dismembering its integrity/balance as much as it had previously been dismemberedWhen I joined this site, I was a software tester for mobile business applications and the song PokerFace was not yet written by Lady Gaga
Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly - PokerFace
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