Mini 1672: Bastard++ (Game Over)

[SilverWolf]

VOTE: Belisarius

I should of kept my vote here the last time I voted for him.

[SilverWolf]

At least now we know there's a cult.

[SilverWolf]

Does the result say if its cult leader or not? Cuz ifnit then this lynch is nit helpung, or am I wrong?

Ummm.......................yeah, he's cult. We lynch him.

[SilverWolf]

Well sure, Maruchan should tell us if his result gets cult leader or cultists or whatever with his result. But we should still lynch cult positive result unless he's not the leader and we can find the leader today or we can find mafia. If we lynch another townie and cult recruits, that would be even worse that lynching a cultist and cult still recruiting overnight.

[SilverWolf]

Nothing interesting in Beli's ISO except this:

Belisarius is your biggest pusher. He thinks you are cult because Vonflare kept saying he was disappointed he wasn't culted.

Actually, I thought vonflare was scum trying to kill a weak cult leader. Killing Molla still gives an above-average chance to confirm the existence of a cult if not, though. Vote stays.

I'm not getting the same read from Sal because I'm 90% certain he's taking the piss out of me.

Sal could be cult.

Also, Peace unvoted him for no good reason and then posted this when questioned about it:

Bruce... Is it OK if I call you Bruce?
Why the crispy crunchy Christ would you unvote me without having a better
vote? o

well, since you are engaging and I appreciate the shtick... not thinking you are scum...
I haven't decided where to put my vote yet...
it is just a vote...or unvote in this case

So Peace could be as well. Otherwise, nothing. The only people Beli voted for were House and vonflare. I truly believe he though vonflare was mafia.

[SilverWolf]

In the mean time, Let's lynch Belsarious, who

returned a result of Cult on my investiagation

!

Let's worry about Beli's buddies after a flip.

He could be cult he could be mafia.

Anything he says is wifoming at this point.

So Im still VT.
Brb.

There is no cult

So why are you guys thinking he's not cult or there isn't one if Maruchan's result says he's cult? Am I missing something?

[SilverWolf]

Survivor should just claim honestly at this point but they may not.

[SilverWolf]

Great, still following, well that means we have one lynch as a town to get the cult leader, or we have to rely on mafia killing them. We may just be boned anyway.

3 mafia
2 cultists
4 town

That can be the setup if Beli is regular cult.

Well shit..........................Maruchan needs to tell us if his result got cult leader or cultist at this point.

[SilverWolf]

Never mind. Bins is right, he only gets the result of cult whether it's Cult Leader or Cultists.

Also I don't think he's faking. Beli pretty much accepted that result as true.

We have 9 alive right now.

1 inspector, 1 loved townie (assuming not culted), 1 cult (not sure if leader or cultists), 6 VT's

Of those 6 VT's there is mafia and cult in there.

If we mislynch today we are done.

[SilverWolf]

We should still lynch Beli.

[SilverWolf]

Maruchan-Inspector

McMenno-Loved Townie

Beli-Cult

Titus-VT

Bins-VT

Sal-VT

Shos-VT

Peacebringer-VT

SilverWolf-VT

OK, So maybe ISO all the VT's and see if anyone looks like cult leader or mafia?

The problem with this is, if we mislynch town today we lose.

pedit: Yeah, we probably need to lynch Beli today and hope for the best. It kind of sucks regardless because drixx claimed early and vonflare's mislynch hurt us as well.

[SilverWolf]

Agree'd-we shouldn't be paying attention to Beli's behavior-it's all WIFOM there.

[SilverWolf]

Alsp has the loved status been tested yet?

Not today. It was proven yesterday.

[SilverWolf]

I can't see them leaving Maruchan alive under any scenario.

[SilverWolf]

VOTE: unvote

SW, look at the math. I don't think we can lynch Belo safely today as I think we have to hit the cult leader. While Beli could be, I don't think he is.

Why isn't he the cult leader?

[SilverWolf]

He's rolling over and playing dead. If cult leader survives, they can get themselves into a position where town is kingmaker. If the cult leader dies, then cult must join with town to have any shot at winning (unless there are three cult).

Hmmmm.....................well, how do we find the cult leader then?

[SilverWolf]

Does anyone know what happens if there's a 3 way tie with cult, town, mafia or 2 factions tie and another loses because they can't get the majority?

There's no way to calculate exact numbers of how many scum and town there are without knowing if the cult leader is weak or not and not knowing if any scum were recruited overnight.

There are likely 3 cult-cult leader can recruit nightly and isn't dead.

9 of us alive so we need to figure out what would happen if we lynched cult, cult leader, or scum today as close as we possibly can calculate it anyway. Mislynching town is not an option.

Maruchan and McMenno are not cult leaders and likely town anyway. Beli is cult.

We need to PoE down the rest to figure it out and we need to calculate some numbers to see how many of each faction are likely alive or will be alive depending on how we lynch.

9-2 town and 1 cult=6-me because I know I'm town=5. Bins, Titus, Shos, Sal, Peace-of you 5 there are 2 cult, and however many groupscum (not sure of exact numbers) and any remaining town.

I'm going to figure out one scenario assuming there are 2 groupscum not recruited by the cult, 3 cult, 4 town and cult leader is lynched. Say scum kills Maruchan.

Next day=2 cult, 2 scum, 3 town. Cult likely loses here.

Say we lynch Beli and he's not the leader and scum shoots maruchan and cult recruits town=3 cult, 2 scum, 2 town.

If we lynch Beli and he's not the leader and they recruit scum (leader isn't weak), scum shoots maruchan=3 town, 4 cult, 1 scum. Scum likely loses here.

We don't lynch Beli and mislynch town-we can't do this or town loses.

We don't lynch Beli and lynch scum and they kill maruchan plus a recruit happens-cult probably wins here.

So we have to either lynch Beli and hope he's the cult leader or find and lynch the cult leader-these are the only two options for town to stand a chance.

I don't have a clue who the cult leader is or how to find out. Beli got a cult result-he could be the leader. Letting him live is chancing a town loss. Killing him still gets rid of a cult member.

Unless my math is way off, I don't get the setup, or someone knows who the cult leader is and can prove it, lynching Beli is the only way to go.

[SilverWolf]

That makes more sense then if they can't be recruited. That weak modified confused me into thinking they could for some reason.

Anyway, they would RB Maruchan if there were 3 and he's been able to investigate so they haven't blocked him. So how does that mean there are 3?

[SilverWolf]

Oh FFS, I think I finally figured out the set-up after all this time. I wasn't seeing the number of M's and C's that way.

Derp, derp.

OK, I agree with what you are saying now, LOL.

[SilverWolf]

Wait-How do we know if cult recruited every night? If they failed, they would know that person is scum right? So we should check to see who pushed who D2 like you said. If they were successful every night and there's 3 scum, we are already in a 3 way tie.

I don't know. I'm getting a headache trying to figure this out. I'll look at D2 and go from there.

[SilverWolf]

We can still look at those pushes and try to figure it out which I will do later.

And if we are in a 3 way tie, then I already know you are not town Titus since I 100% know my role PM and know I am.

We either lynch Beli or we check reads from D2 and see if we figure out the leader if Beli isn't.

[SilverWolf]

Just based on his reaction alone, Beli is cult.

That's L-1 I believe.

[SilverWolf]

Unfortunately this game has been plagued by inactivity and drama so I'm not sure what we are going to get out of any voting patterns or pushes which kind of sucks. :/

[SilverWolf]

Happy scumday Bins and I have no objection to a hammer.

It's really the only option at this point, I believe. So go for it.

[SilverWolf]

Town is probably tied with cult right now. Mafia needs to die. We should prob lynch shos or peacebringer today.

[SilverWolf]

I'm not sure how to even go about this.

I don't think Titus is town BTW.

[SilverWolf]

@Beli - Why me?

@PB - So you no longer want to vote Beli because he is engaging while not actually saying anything related to the game. K.

Also you didn't answer my question. People find you scummy a lot, sure, whatever. What I want to know is if the majority of the time it is town v town or not, links would be great, thanks.

Good good post again I like this guy. This is Titus' slot, I can mark it as a solid townread by now I think.

That exchange right there is

precisely

why I only use my vote {outside of RVS} when I'm convinced someone is scum. Jumping on and off of wagons is just asking for opportunistic scum or overzealous town to jump down your throat. That makes it all the more amazing to me that I am often criticized for being careful with my vote. There's a bit of cognitive dissonance when it comes to voting. Perhaps that would make an interesting theory discussion in the theorycrafting forum?

This is a good post too, and Drixx should go townread as well. The exchange being talked about is at the top of that page, more or less. you can really see PB's posting style there, btw. Not surprised he's from another site.

Still no case on peace, where is vonflare?

BUT WHY ARE THERE SO MANY PEOPLE DEFENDING HIM. I mean I get attacking a bad case but for fuck's sake when there's no case why are there like 11 people rushing it. I also understand the scumreading of vonflare - I read him as scum too - (by now I know he's town/BBMolla) - but for god's sake let people defend themselves how else can you read them

This game seems to be moving through a Molasses tidal wave.

Drixx is town doctor and dead, Maruchan town inspector and dead.

You replaced Mikazuki. Titus replaced Kaerutsune. Salmanence20 replaced snscompt1.

McMenno is loved townie unless he was culted N2. We tested him D2 but not D3 and if he's cult it doesn't matter today. We have to lynch mafia so he's not the lynch today.

Everyone else alive right now has claimed VT.

snscompt1 had almost no activity and terrible posting, Salmanence20's post have been asking to be culted and not much else. I can see him as scum.

I think Titus might be cult due to unvoting Beli and saying she doesn't think he's the leader. I'm not too keen on lynching her today.

I agree that Mika and Bins looked town. The reason I'm not townreading Mika as much is because of the replace which is similar to how she replaced as scum in another game I'm in plus BBmolla was scumreading here and he's flipped town. I would consider a lynch of shos except that's not really a great reason to scumread someone and his latests post look o.k.

Peacebringer aggravated me during my interaction with House and really seem to be adding fuel to that fire. He hasn't participated much at all in the game and only reacted under pressure when he was at L-2. He was a scumread of a lot of people and by PoE, he's my top choice for a lynch today.

I'd be willing to wait to get a consensus because we aren't getting a lynch unless we can get 5 votes but he's my top pick right now.

[SilverWolf]

Wait, either Peacebringer OR Salmanence20 would be fine for a lynch today.

I can see them both as scum.

[SilverWolf]

Town is probably tied with cult right now. Mafia needs to die. We should prob lynch shos or peacebringer today.

I don't think Titus is town BTW.

Just saying.

[SilverWolf]

I think there was very little chance of a town win here regardless of what happened.

Flames-who was the lynchee?

[SilverWolf]

Town would have won, if you would have listened to me.

Town was screwed.

I'm not complaining. It was a fun game and Bastard so that's totally fine. I'm just saying, this was scum sided.

[SilverWolf]

Peace-I was totally scumreading you for your behavior during that House vs me interaction and then backed off when you got so frustrated because I get frustrated as town for similar reasons and I started sympathizing a bit.

I was almost recruited but then Bins says I buddied her after she townread me. That's totally a towntell for me Bins, LOL.

Good game everyone, hope to see you guys in another one in the future!!

Thanks for the game flames!!

pedit: by the time shos made that post, it was too late anyway

[SilverWolf]

Both PR's claiming early hurt but you played well Maruchan.

That's a good idea Titus, I might have thought of it if I had more experience with this set-up.

[SilverWolf]

I think the key is figuring out if it is town or scum frustration. Vonflare should of given his case before replacing. :/

[SilverWolf]

I had no idea what I was doing in this game but it was fun while it lasted?

You're not alone. I was pretty clueless as well, LOL.

[SilverWolf]

I am a terrible liar.

So am I and I hate lying. I have a hell of a time with that.