Mini 1709: Radjarok: Game over!

[Accountant]

VOTE: Gob

I don't like his avatar. It's too fat. :3

[Accountant]

Vote: Hopkirk

. He knows why.

Can we know why too?

[Accountant]

Hopkirk: Can we know why too? :3

[Accountant]

As the official contrarian of this game I'm gonna have to push for a Trivium lynch, since he's the other non-confirmed.

DOWN WITH HOPKIRK HATERS
VOTE TRIVIUM

VOTE: Trivium

[Accountant]

He literally just said he does not know why Haschel. Dunno why you're being so cagey over a random vote.

Trivium: I plan to be fairly active

[Accountant]

VOTE: Haschel Cedricson

for now.

[Accountant]

Well, he implied pretty heavily that he had no idea what you were talking about.

[Accountant]

Gob:

8. vijay2vasandani - Though inactive he is definitely giving me the "i really wish i werent here right now" vibe. To me it seems like he is just forcing himself to play yet another game of mafia.

I'm not getting this vibe at all. Vijay has been acting fairly aggressive so far, calling for votes on Haschel and then turning around and voting someone else. I think he's scummy, specifically because he seems eager to kickstart bandwagons, which became clear after the (IMO) silly texcat wagon.

Klingoncelt is rubbing me the wrong way at the moment, what with a lack of content followed up by a naked vote. Klingon, care to justify?

Right now I think the best option is to vote either SamX or Vijay. Given that SamX is an easy wagon at any time due to inactivity I would rather vote Vijay.

Townreads: Haschel, gob, stoz. Would be very interested in seeing Haschel's reads list.

Will do a roster run once I get access to a computer.

[Accountant]

VOTE: Vijay

[Accountant]

Actually, scratch that, Texcat's right.

Then i looked back and saw this and i felt sad again. Is it just that i haven't confirmed, or is there some other reason you're hiding?

UNVOTE:

This makes me think that VeeGee isn't scum. Retraction of read feels genuine to me. Easily faked, but I'm treating this as a towntell for now.

Gob also hasn't addressed the people putting pressure on SamX, which is the exact same as his argument not to put pressure on inactives, which I don't agree with.

[Accountant]

Klingoncelt is rubbing me the wrong way at the moment, what with a lack of content followed up by a naked vote. Klingon, care to justify?

I don't make large posts.

Gob comes in out of nowhere and makes a weak reads list partially based on post counts. On page 4.

And as Hopkirk pointed out, the exchange between VeeGee and Vijay looks like 2 Scums with no Daychat.

And this makes them all confirmed scum? You certainly implied that in your earlier post. Do you have a strong read om them or are you just sheeping Hop?

[Accountant]

Vijay, why do you think texcat is a possible vote? I still don't like the vibes he's giving off, he seems to be deflecting more than anything after calling for "moar votes" twice.

VeeGee is trying hard to seem town but that's a nulltell in my book, town has incentive to seem town.

Gob
[quote=gob]But they are reads, and my reads are usually pretty fucking amazing.[/quote]
How can you be so sure of accurate reads this early into the game?

[Accountant]

Vijay, why do you think texcat is a possible vote? I still don't like the vibes he's giving off, he seems to be deflecting more than anything after calling for "moar votes" twice.

Huh? That wasn't me calling for moar votes.

"He" refers to Vijay.

SamX is waffling, there's definitely enough content to slap at least a vote down somewhere. A vote is a townie's best weapon during the day and he's choosing not to use it.

I'd like to hear some solid content from Sam especially given his low activity earlier. What makes me even more suspicious is the fact that he waffled AFTER receiving pressure for being quiet.

Vijay, can I ask you to lay out a full case against VeeGee, preferably with quotes? You seem invested in attacking him. I think we can get a lot of stuff out of Vee, but its been short snippets so far. Would be great if you could lay everything out in the open and we'll see what we can get. This is especially useful because a lot of people have strong reads on you.

[Accountant]

vijay...why are you flying to Boston?

I've caught up on the game and have no reads of significance. Could be in part due to fatigue. Past my bedtime.

Not in RVS anymore though so....

UNVOTE:

Note: this stinks of active lurking.

[Accountant]

Just did a reread(thanks Vijay) and post 116 really feels scummy as hell to me. That looks a lot like an intentional misunderstanding, and according to the latest vote count there's no votes on VeeGee.

VOTE: VeeGee

[Accountant]

Dessew, what are your thoughts? Are you still planting your vote on Hopkirk? Because I don't see him as very suspicious.

[Accountant]

I read over newbie 1632, which I believe was the game gob was referring to. You will note that he quickhammered nachomamma the VT on day 1, and was subsequently lynched on D2.

[Accountant]

Texcat:
I townread gob as he seemed to be transparent and fairly open with his thoughts about how the game progresses(even if he's being arrogant and condescending). That in my book is a towntell.

Right now I want more out of Dessew and fitz. I would also be interested to hear from Trivium's replacement when he gets here.

I currently have scumreads on VeeGee and Vijay. Oddity: Vijay and VeeGee are fighting. This could be a staged bus, but it could also be a sign that they're of opposing factions.

Hopkirk and Tex are probably my biggest town reads right now.

VeeGee, why did you vote gob?

[Accountant]

I felt that Vijay was trying to deflect attention of himself by trying to shift the spotlight to another player. This seemed scummy to me; thus, I called it out.

[Accountant]

One of my favorite exchanges I ever read on this site occurred shortly after I joined this site, and it's stuck with me ever since:
Player 1 I feel like my only options here are to A) either prove I'm a townie or B) convince you to lynch somebody else instead.
Player 2: The only way for you to do "A" is by dying, so if I were you I'd get started on "B".

Do you disagree with the arguments that vijay was making?

At the time that I made the post, I felt that his arguments were weak and a flimsy excuse to push attention off hinself. I have since voted VeeGee since Vijay has made a more concrete and sound argument against him.

[Accountant]

I must admit that the summary swayed me, because I'm more likely to vote based on a coherent tied together argument than snippets of Vijay quoting VG and saying "this is bad".

That said, I still have scum read on Vijay. He hasn't done anything to persuade me he's town.

Oh, and. Haschel, who are your biggest scumreads and townreads?

[Accountant]

Right now my strongest scumreads are on VeeGee and Dessew. I'm not sure what gob's doing, he started off fine with clear reads and then went on into a ramble about newbie games and how his reads are always correct. If I had to guess he's VI/scum.

My vote on VeeGee stands. I'm not particularly impressed with Hopkirk's vote splitting, especially as VG hasn't given a very sound defense and has (even more suspiciously IMO) not answered Haschel's question.

Biggest town reads are Haschel, Tex, hop.

[Accountant]

Convince me why I should vote gob over you, VeeGee. Build a case against him, because right now I'm pushing for your lynch, not his.

[Accountant]

@Haschel: Personally, I think she's mafia.

@stoz: If gob was mafia defending his buddy, would he really do it as blatantly as declaring Dessew his top town? The "subtle" defense of gob by Dessew disturbs me a lot more though.

@Dessew, gob: what are your reads on each other? Do you still think the other is town what with all the suspicion flying in your general direction?

[Accountant]

I agree that we need to lynch VeeGee, but we definitely should not hammer early. To be clear, I'm autolynching anybody that quickhammers VeeGee, even if VG turns out to be scum.

[Accountant]

I agree that we need to lynch VeeGee, but we definitely should not hammer early. To be clear, I'm autolynching anybody that quickhammers VeeGee, even if VG turns out to be scum.

That's playing against Town's win condition. It's also narcissistic.

I'm precommiting to this in order to deter people from quickhammering in the first place. Note that mafia also has reason to quickhammer other mafia at L-1. It makes them look good and also allows them to cut short the day.

[Accountant]

But they got the game moving from what i can see.

The game was well out of RVS when you made that post, Haschelwagon had started and ended and accusatioms were already being thrown around. Don't take credit for something you didn't do.

At this point i think we need to look at VeeGee and Acountant, Acountant's logic just seems off.

The thing about a player seeming off - that's a matter of subjectivity, and not really provable. But a flaw in logic, is, by its very nature, provable, and I would therefore like you to give a thorough explanation of what you don't like about my logic.

[Accountant]

Phone post coming, so don't expect anything too detailed. I only had time to briefly skim the thread, but I think I noted down and answered all the questions. If I missed any questions, please re-ask so I can wrap them up.

Gob

Gob is sixteen different kinds of off, and by that I don't mean he's acting conventionally scummy. It's just that my read on him is all over the place. I've seen his games on the Town of Salem forums(under the name "Gobln") and he seems to consistently display a large ego, often asking for protection on night 1.

Town!Gob
- Posted a clear and unambiguous reads list early in the game. I can't imagine that scum would commit to a position so early, especially with such strong opinions.

- Has been transparent in his thinking. If he thinks someone is scum, he doesn't hesitate to say it. Same for townreads.

- I feel that most of the votes on him are weakly supported. This could be mild evidence for scum trying to mislynch an easy target.

Scum!Gob

- Dodged quite a few questions. What does he have to hide?

- Does not seem to be actively pushing a town agenda. When Haschel Cedricson posts, I get a sense that the game is clearer for me, the metaphorical outlines of players slightly sharper. When Gob posts, I'm left scratching my head. I can't think of a single post of his that left me going "yes, this post definitely helps town and is pushing a town agenda".

- Incomprehensibility. Claiming that my logic is off because I flipped reads from "gob is town" to "gob is VI or scum" doesn't really make sense. Reads should be updated as the game goes on, yes? Not to mention his ??? ramble about the setup early in D1 and his claim that his reads are always right(even when presented with evidence they aren't). After that, he claims that his reads list got town moving, although it didn't.

CONCLUSION:
Gob is vanilla townie : 0%
Gob is power role : 5% given his known meta for acting somewhat unbalanced as a PR
Gob is a clueless town member: 40%
Gob is scum: 60%

Gob is most likely VI/scum.

[Accountant]

Haschel Cedricson is my top town read by far. VeeGee needs to generate content or things are going to go badly for him, regardless of what his alignment is.

[Accountant]

Town has no reason to sit on their asses after being asked to generate content.

[Accountant]

I detest wallposts.

You're going to like me half the time and hate me half the time!

Hey gob, give me a four-or-five-word read on the following players: stoz, texcat, Accountant.

VeeGee, you may do this as well.

I'll do it too.

Stoz: Nothing special, no clear read.
Texcat: Solid content, probably town.

[Accountant]

Gob, I think you're most likely scum, and if you aren't then you're fucking around and need to stop. Is that clear enough for you?

[Accountant]

did not leave clarity on her stance

In addition: this is the hottest BS I've heard so far in this game, given that I literally gave percentages for what your alignment was.

[Accountant]

stoz

I don't like leaving people as "no clear read", so I'm going to go ahead and take a closer look at stoz's ISO.

He has nine posts total, three of which are fluff. Six content posts in an eleven-page game is eye-brow raising, I think, but can be forgiven if the posts themselves are full of good, meaty insights. Let's take a look.

#93:
States that Trivium's question could be town, then says that it could also be scum. Concludes that it's a null tell. This seems like he's just trying to pretend to analyze, this point gives absolutely no content and could be summarized as "the RVS is a null tell for me", which is hardly an amazing discovery. Votes an inactive, which is fine at that point in the game.


#122: Took a stance on gob's reads list, even if it was a mild one like "I don't think it shows he's scum". Pretty standard, average post, just commenting on mod vote counts and such.


#137 and #166: stoz puts pressure off SamX, shifts it onto VeeGee. This does tell me something about his thought process, but he hasn't come up with any original ideas so far, having mostly agreed with vijay about VeeGee. I do not agree with Dessew's statement that he's been fence-sitting, commiting to VeeGee is a pretty clear indication that he's picking a side.

#208: This to me is stoz's saving grace. It's an original idea and after reading it I felt genuinely convinced of a possible Dessew buddying Gob or vice-versa(which was only reinforced after they both agreed that each other were scum). I agree strongly with gob that his feels very townish to me. I can imagine scum!stoz writing this, but it's not as obvious as town!stoz writing this.

#232: Promises to address the rest of Dessew's post.

Remember to make a note if he fails to do this.

Overall read on stoz: town. #208 was a strong town post and the other two, while not exactly the meatiest of posts, had nothing overly scummy about them. I don't think he's a particularly strong town or obvtown, but I do think he's town.

[Accountant]

Okay, so I would like everyone who reads this post to post a quick(one sentence) read on me, plus an addendum about whether you think I'm fence-sitting. Because the way I see it a 20% more likely chance of being mafia than town is pretty big, especially 11 pages in on a guy who's been messing up all my reads with his incomprehensible posts.

[Accountant]

Why would I? I'm not confident you're mafia and theres no reason to lie to town about my reads confidence. Especially not on the eleventh page.

[Accountant]

This is going nowhere fast. Im going to step away and let others give their input. Suffice to say that when I write up a gigantic megapost talking about your pro and anti town attributes and give you a 20% chance higher of scum than town I don't feel its fencesitting.

The reason why scum likes to fencesit is because they can be flexible and throw their support behind whichever wagon gains the most popularity as they like. This is directly contradictory to me locking myself in with hard numbers about your alignment and possible role.

[Accountant]

Haschel, can you ISO me so we know what awful posts you're referring to?

Klingoncelt: I don't have much of a read on him. I will do an ISO when I get access to a computer. I will point out that I can't think of any good quality posts by him off the top of my head.

[Accountant]

Thanks for the analysis. I'll address it once I get to a computer.

[Accountant]

This comes across as "I am willing to bus you, but I don't want to."

According to post #253, I'm the first to vote VeeGee, and I haven't taken my vote off since even though other lynch candidates(such as Dessew or gob, or even stoz) have been pointed out. Do you think a mafia would bus their buddy that far on Day 1.

I've noticed that people who are under pressure tend to be able to notice a lot of scummy things about other people, perhaps because they're incentivized strongly to convince town to lynch someone else. At worst, I get more content out of a scummy, fairly quiet player. At best, VeeGee provides convincing evidence against gob, who is then exposed as scum and lynched.

At the time this was posted VeeGee only had four votes on him and was in no practical danger of being quickhammered, so why bring it up as a possibility?

It's a standard habit I have every time a player looks like a viable lynch candidate. Most of my forum mafia experience is from a forum where quickhammers were fairly common, especially because a large portion of the players were new to mafia. Gobln, who quickhammered in Newbie 1632, is also in the game, so I needed to put it out early.

Did you read his reads list? It didn't have strong opinions at all.

This was my error; upon reread, I concede that the reads list was indeed not very strong. My point that scum had no reason to post an unasked-for reads list with stances taking on certain people("literally bare-bones stuff, just trying to get by" makes it pretty clear what he thinks of me, for example), because it gives them less flexibility in a fluid situation like Day 1 where reads can change fast(sort of like how I went from townreading gob to VI/scumreading him).

These are mutually exclusive.

Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. What I meant was that Gob is transparent in that he throws out whatever he's thinking off the top of his head when unprompted or given a loose question like "what are your reads?", but becomes evasive when someone else asks him specific, direct questions.

If you actually think that gob is definitely not a vanilla townie, why the hell would you announce that in the thread? I can see literally no scum motivation for that. Also, if he's not vanilla, and he's only 5% a power role, then where does 40% clueless town come from?

I was giving my best read on gob at that time. Perhaps you can't see any town motivation for that, but scum wouldn't have any reason to do so either(if I was scum and suspected gob was a powerful role, all I have to do is wait for night and go "pst! let's NK gob!".

"power role" referring to a powerful role, not a role with a night ability. Cop is an example of a power role; something like Deputy isn't.

I agree this part should have been more clear, so I'm clarifying it now.

You've been talking me up quite a bit in this game, even in posts that supposedly have nothing to do with me. It's one thing for me to be a townread, but after a while it comes across as buddying.

My point remains. I think you're a strong player and most likely town. Look at that in whatever way you want to.

If you are town, why do you care what other people think about you? It's one thing to defend yourself against a case, but a general question like this is more about making sure you're

looking

town instead of actually

being

town.

I wanted feedback about whether gob's accusation of me fence-sitting had any substance, because if it was and people told me I was indeed engaged in fencesitting, that would be a sign to correct my behavior. Same with the reads; if 5 people had responded to that post with "I think you're filthy scum", that would be a sign that I was doing something wrong, especially since this is my first game on MafiaScum(I played in a newbie, but had to be replaced after 3 posts).

I fail to see how scum asking this question would make them look town. If they're being scumread, asking this wouldn't make them look more scummy than before.

[Accountant]

Do I think scum would put pressure on their buddy at the start of the game and then look for a reason to leave? Sure. Also, you haven't moved your vote from him but you also haven't been trying very hard to convince other people to join you.

I've received many reasons to leave the VeeGee lynch, including the presence of more popular targets like Dessew or gob. If I wanted to look for a cheap excuse to shift my vote off, I've had a few chances to do so already. As for VeeGee himself, he's V/LA, so I can't really put pressure on him until he comes back.

At first this appears like a good point, but it ignores one important scenario: rolefishing.

How does this help scum!Accountant gain a better lock on gob's real role?

Is this standard terminology on those other forums you mentioned? gob, can you confirm/deny?

It is standard terminology on the Town of Salem forums. This is due to the way their role lists are formatted, which gives categories of roles instead of exact roles; when "power role" is said, it can mean "role that falls under the category Town Power", which usually means the strong, town leading roles.

In FM 7C, I claimed power role day 1, and people still thought I was claiming town power all the way until the start of D2. There isn't really a consensus on the actual meaning of the term "power role" on those forums, with most situations depending on context to figure out. In this case, I feel that gob's actions could be that of a strong, powerful town role acting weirdly to discourage mafia from targeting him.

If you're worried that other people think you are fence-sitting, then you make sure that your stance is posted unequivocally and move on. There's no reason to test the waters to see if you need to "correct your behavior".

That's what I thought I did, but then gob said I was fence-sitting, which made me wonder if I actually was.

[Accountant]

Constantine, what are your reads?

[Accountant]

Anyone up for putting VeeGee at L-1? I'm guessing if he comes back to find himself a hairsbreadth from being lynched he'll be more cooperative with us.

[Accountant]

To clarify my read on gob:

I think there is a roughly 40% chance that he is town-sided.
Out of that 40% chance, I estimate a 5% chance of him being some sort of powerful role, such as cop or vigilante.
I think there is a roughly 60% chance that he is scum-sided.

@Dessew: I don't understand your question. Being incomprehensible and not pushing a town agenda helps scum enormously, right?

[Accountant]

In general, I'm going to make the assumption that anyone who does things that help scum is most likely scum. Otherwise any scum can do what he likes and claim VI

[Accountant]

Calling attention to Klingon's naked vote. I think the case against gob is clear enough(even if I don't think it's as strong as the case against VeeGee, who hasn't even spoken) that the vote doesn't require too much explanation, but this is something to keep in mind if he makes more naked votes in the future.

[Accountant]

Phone post. If I've failed to address any of your questions, bring them up ASAP.

@Dessew: Because gob has shown that he can string two thoughts together(like when he accused me of fence-sitting) and so when he goes full retard and just spouts out shit I begin to wonder why.

@Klingon: Those percentages are Bayesian priors. In other words, you indeed pull numbers that look semi-accurate out your ass and update them when new evidence comes along. If I see anything to change the way I view gob majorly, I'll post a revised estimate. I prefer to use hard numbers as opposed to "hmm he seems sorta scum but could also be town I guess"(just look at my username!).

Also, can town members not have top townreads? I don't understand what you are saying.

@SamX: I may be biased, but post 334 sounds opportunistic as fuck. Also, how do my numbers not make sense?

Okay, now for some concerns I have.

1) I'd like more out of texcat. He seems to be playing it rather low-key.
2) Haschel, what are your feelings on Gob and VeeGee? If you have already posted them, please link so I can see.

[Accountant]

So what do you think Accountant, is Gob town or scum?

I think that he's scum, but he's not my top scumread(that's Wanderer still). If gob flips scum, Dessew is almost certainly scum; if gob flips town, at least one of the people on his lynch is almost certainly scum.

If Wanderer defends herself competently, I would not be unwilling to switch trains to gob. I really find it suspicious that VeeGee replaced out as the heavy prrssure piled on, but gob is sufficiently scummy, and his flip would give us a sufficiently large amount of information, that I don't think he's a bad lynch candidate at all.

[Accountant]

@wanderer: That's the scummiest of VG's posts, but I feel that what makes him really scummy is the fact that he basically quit the moment pressure was applied.

@SamX: That huge wall of pros and cons, those are my reasons.

I feel ready to switch to a gob lynch now since Wanderer is generating content and nobody seems willing to push on him. He's still my strongest scumread, however, and unless something changes I will probably vote him again tomorrow.

@gob: I feel that vijay is vanilla town.

has anyone considered that the Salamence slot might be a jester?

[Accountant]

I was being sarcastic. In clearer terms, what I meant was that your slot has been acting scummy as hell and shitposting ceaselessly.

[Accountant]

116 presents an intentionally misleading set of choices and seems like an overblown obfuscation meant to conceal a scumslip. I don't like it at all.

"Ceaselessly" meaning that he never ceases his shitposting, from first post being a rather weak RVS to the present, across three separate accounts.

Why aren't you voting your strongest scumread right now?

I am. You are my strongest scumread, or rather your slot is. I haven't unvoted yet.

Updated gob numbers:
Powerful role like Cop: 3%
Vanilla Townie: 20%
Scum: 75%
Buffer(aka "give or take this amount of percentage points"): 2%

@Wanderer: Why are you voting me, by the way? If you want to stop yourself from being lynched, gob is your best bet, so I'm interpreting this as a genuine scumread on me. My question is what posts of mine seem scummy to you?

General Observations:
- Haschel Cedricson has voted me and named me as his top scumread, but I don't feel like he is applying heavy pressure. He's stopped questioning me and there wasn't any "we need more votes on Accountant!" call or anything like that.

-SamX is scummier in my eyes. The way he jumped on me right after Klingoncelt does feels opportunistic, and I don't remember him contributing significantly during the early stages of the game. #381 is a trash post, it's calculatedly vague; if Scum!SamX wants to push a mislynch on Salamence(who is an easy ML slot) he can point to this to springboard, but if things don't turn it out that way he can brush it off as an idle comment. In other words, it feels like scum trying to remain flexible and not commit to an opinion that he can be questioned on.

-Salamence, you won't be fulfilling your wincon, no matter what align you are, if you refuae to generate content.

[Accountant]

I still think VeeGee was scummy, and Wanderer's replace-in guns blazing reminds me so much of BlueBloodedToffee replacing in as scum my last game.

Do you mean this in a meta sense or an analytical sense("BBT employed the scum strategy of being aggressive upon replacement to further his scum aims, and Wanderer is doing it too for the same reasons")?

[Accountant]

I think Vidjay is town

is very suspicious however

Pick one.

[Accountant]

Im planing on moving it. Why is it such an issue.

Its not like Im wagoned or anything

Why the hell would you

not

move your vote? A vote is probably one of the strongest indicators of stance out there. By voting yourself, you're making yourself unreadable, especially with your smokescreen of yelling and general troll aura getting in the way. Or, to put it in more simple terms:

Why are you not moving your vote from someone you believe to be confirmed town(yourself) to someone you believed to be almost confirmed scum(vijay)?

I don't have the time to do a VeeGee ISO, but I promise I'll get it done soon. In general, I feel suspicious of VeeGee because he acted scummy on the first day, and then went utterly silent when placed under pressure, which is something I don't think people are emphasizing enough about his behavior. I do not like people who replace out when a wagon forms on them, and it invariably makes me think that they're scum who's retreating now that everything went tits-up. And the few posts he did make before he replaced failed to address any of the questions directed at him too, which makes me feel that he's being evasive, another big scumtell.

Wanderer's aggressive replace-in behavior is a null tell for me however; I can see why a town would do it just as much as scum. I still think his slot is scum, so I'm still voting him. Right now there seems to be 0 pressure placed on him, I don't see people pressuring Wanderer as actively as they're pressuring gob(which I must admit is also partially my fault), which is mildly frustrating because I sort of feel like the wagon has stalled.

@Gob's numbers:

I get numbers for reads as a way to quantify how I feel about a situation. A read of:

John is 70% town 30% scum

might be expressed as "John seems pretty town to me, I can't find any posts of his that are scummy at all" for someone else. I keep getting asked to justify these numbers, when I'm pretty sure that if I had just posted "gob is acting weird, I think he's scummy" I wouldn't be questioned and voted based on it. I stand by my decision of expressing my actual feelings about the probability that he's a powerful role. If I read him as 90% powerful it would be a different story, but I don't see how it helps scum for me to say that I feel there's a 3% chance he's powerful. Nor can I see how it helps me rolefish, gob's not going to softclaim just because I suddenly posted a percentage on him.

Anyway, how do you know whether it was intentional?

What, VeeGee

accidentally

presented a set of choices that was very obviously misleading, and which he should know was misleading?

@Accountant: What are you using Bayes for there?

I find that expressing your feelings as probabilities and then updating them accordingly is a useful method to quantify your feelings about any particular issue. Think of it as that scene in Death Note where L goes "there's a 95% chance that Light is Kira". We all know the actual chance is probably not 95%, but it helps the investigation team to understand where exactly L stands on his "scumread"(so to speak) of Light.

@Everyone who's voting me:
If you think I'm scum, who would my partner be?

[Accountant]

Damn I hate that post above^

Also theres alot of bitching that Im not unvoting myself but not enough talk of a Vijay wagon for or against.

You've talked a lot about lynching vijay, but have neither given any evidence against him, stated a single reason why we should vote him or even voted him yourself, which you would think would be the most fundamental step.

Why don't you like my post? What other reads do you have other than "Vijay and Accountant are confirmed scum"?

[Accountant]

@Accountant: Then why did I have to repeatedly ask for your updated numbers on gob? And where are your numbers on my slot? I think you could be buddies with gob and either Vijay or Dessew. I have to admit I didn't look into associations yet (I don't like doing that before any flip) but you and gob being buddies I'm basing on your reluctance to vote him even though you hinted at that, and gob townreading you while finding things you did scummy.

If you want numbers on your slot:

90% scum
6% town
0.01% powerful role
3.99% buffer

[Accountant]

I townread Vijay. Salamence is probably town, but if so he's the shittiest VI I've ever seen. He's tunneling extremely hard on Vijay and me.

@Wanderer: What do you mean use my numbers? They are a reflecrion of my thoughts.

[Accountant]

Hardclaim Vanilla Townie. I want more out of Haschel, he seems content to let the wagon ride after attacking me earlier. Could also be a chainsaw.

Scumreads, in order:
WANDERER!!!
Dessew & Gob (paired, I get a lot of association tells between them)


Top townreads, in no particular order:
Vijay
Stoz
Texcat
Hopkirk
Salamence

Haschel Cedricson could swing either way, I can see how his actions could stem from a scum as well as town motivation.

Everyone else I'm not sure about. Numbers on demand.

[Accountant]

If I do get lynched, pay attention to post 450, it lists down all my reads so you can go through them on Day 2. You shouldn't lynch me though; Wanderer is a far better lynch.

Good luck town.

[Accountant]

@Salamence: To be blunt, because no scum would act that stupid.

[Accountant]

I don't agree.

I think you guys should unvote and vote Wanderer instead.

[Accountant]

I'm not getting any scumvibes off you. It seems questionable for a scum replacing in to immediately draw lots of attention, then act stupid and tunnel a townie.

[Accountant]

1. No, I'm not a real accountant. I just like numbers. Accountancy is an easy class, yes.

2. At first he wasn't scummy enough to merit a vote, then a more scummy target, namely VeeGee, came along.

3. I didn't.

@464: Blatant tunneling.

[Accountant]

What is wrong with voting someone in RVS? I mean, the fact that it's RVS should be a pretty big tipoff.

Do you have any scumreads other than vijay and me? Or, to put it another way: if both vijay and me revealed as innocent child right now, who would you vote?

[Accountant]

Bandwagons generate reads. I don't see what was the harm in wagoning Haschel as it dissipated fairly quickly. Additionally, Haschel would probably not have been lynched based on that flimsy reasoning alone, so why would scum try to push on him then? Personally, I just found Haschel's evasiveness about his beef with Hopkirk(especially given Hopkirk's response to Haschel's vote, saying he didn't know what it was about) sorta eyebrow-raising, and in the RVS that's a perfectly valid reason to vote someone.

Salamence, what are your thoughts on Wanderer?

[Accountant]

We

cannot

No Lynch today, people, we need flips for Day 2. There's still time to switch to a Wanderer lynch. Hell, I'd rather you lynch me(a Vanilla Townie) than NL.

[Accountant]

havingfitz, are you voting because you don't want an NL or because you believe I am the genuine best lynch candidate for today?

[Accountant]

Someone needs to hammer Accountant. You can all come after me tomorrow if she doesn't flip scum but I'm about 98% sure she will.

Remember to come after her tomorrow after I flip town

[Accountant]

Can't say I'm happy at being mislynched D1 in my first mafia game. However, I would like to request that people ISO me after I flip with the knowledge that my reads were in good faith. Also, lynch wanderer and cop gob/dessew(if no cop, L-1 and make them claim).

[Accountant]

New to this site, yes. I have played two full games and 2 half-games(replaced in, died immediately) on the Salem forums.

[Accountant]

Whelp. I was VT.

Get Wandereeeer

[Accountant]

I think playing the blame game just hampers town discussion and that anyone who tries to lock up analysis tomorrow with a "who's to blame for the accountant mislynch" are giving off a major scumtell. It's important to look at the wagon, yes, but I really don't want my legacy(so to speak) to be 10 pages of "X and Y scream at each other about who's the filthy mislyncher". I'm also certain that at least two scum are on my wagon.

[Accountant]

You can most effectively express your apologies by turning my death into a benefit for town; look at my ISO keeping in mind that they were coming from a town motivation, analyze my wagon and use that to catch mafia.

[Accountant]

Good game.

[Accountant]

The Accountant reads were quite on point I can see.

Yeah, but by that time I was too dead to tell it to the rest of the town