Micro 533: Restricted Great Idea Mafia (Game over)

[GuiltyLion]

Sweet, we have a wolf, a fox, a frog, and a lion in this game!

VOTE: Soren

[GuiltyLion]

Four posts and no comments on not mafia's claim?

I didn't know whether it was normal to claim immediately in Great Idea Mafia or not (I'm pretty inexperienced, this is my first non-newbie game). And even if it were normal to claim, it could easily be a joke or a lie so I didn't really put any stock in it.

[GuiltyLion]

Kop is trying his damnedest to get us out of RVS, do you all think that is more likely to come from scum or town?

Let's get some more votes on the Soren wagon as he is clearly scum ignoring the pressure

Sorry I didn't post much, busy weekend as my parents were in town. I will be more active from here on out.

Also hi Vedith!

[GuiltyLion]

@Vedith - what do you mean by "trying too hard"?

Post 31 is bad, since it was relatively clear to me what Silver's posts meant, and 33 is a useless question, but 40 was meant to create discussion and switching vote in 35 reads like someone flailing around trying to make activity happen. It's activity for the sake of activity rather than directed questioning, but I think scum would have an easier time lurking than making 8 or 9 posts on one page. He explains his motives in 41 and I thought it was genuine. Although posts like 46 are pretty worthless.

[GuiltyLion]

@Fro99er - Yeah, I don't really have a read on him. He's still null for me. I asked my question in 43 to both a) create more discussion and b) see if anyone felt strongly about his actions so far one way or the other. I posted 51 to respond to Vedith. It's an answer to "why do you feel he is trying to get us out of RVS", not "what is your read on Kop".

[GuiltyLion]

To explain my null read as a fleshed out answer to your question - If we are to believe that dragging a lazy town out of RVS is something only townies do, then I would say Kop is town, because I do believe he is genuinely trying to advance us out of RVS. However, I'm inclined to agree with Soren, it's something scum could easily do for free towncred, so it doesn't make sense to read it strongly one way or the other. Therefore, Kop is still null for me.

[GuiltyLion]

gut read town.

Why is it so important to you that I express a read on him this early? Do you think that your read (or my read) on Kop is likely to be accurate solely based off his posts so far?

[GuiltyLion]

@Fro99er

- that was a quick unvote. Did you vote me to generate pressure or because I was your current top scumread? I don't think your fast vote/unvote is necessarily indicative of alignment (and I'll probably meta you on it later) but I'd like to know your playstyle so I can read your actions better.

@ASP

- This question feels a bit forced, Soren has had only four posts and only three of substance (I'm ignoring 14). I'm going to assume you are asking me about him in particular because my RVS vote is there and I joked that we should get more votes on his wagon.

His initial question to Not_Mafia about his claim is null to me, could be either town!Soren asking for clarity and a read on Not_Mafia or scum!Soren rolefishing to assess whether NM would be a good NK. He didn't follow up on it after NM rebuffed him, which I think is slightly more likely to come from scum (if town, what was the point of asking the question if you don't care about the answer?), but it's not extremely indicative. In 47 he claims there is "something to be learned" from the claim, but doesn't offer up what he learned other than a theory that NM is "trying to get attention to himself", which seems to me fairly shallow evaluation and not a deep effort to discern alignment.

So

@Soren

- do you think drawing attention onto himself is more likely to come from town!NM or scum!NM?

I did like his line of questioning onto SilverWolf, and the overall feel of 47 is a solid effort to glean meaningful content from mostly fluff up to that point. So overall he's rather null, some town-motivated stuff with a few potentially scum-indicative things sprinkled in.

I haven't seen someone scummier to move my RVS vote yet, and I try to generally move my vote only when I have a decent suspicion about someone's slot. Nothing's struck me as particularly scummy yet this game.

Now as for something that did seem a bit odd to me:

Not_Mafia's claim instinctively makes me read him as town because of the obvious attention it would draw. The silence is consistent with meta from both sides, so is in effect a null thing.

If something is town because of obvious attention, what prevents scum from doing it for towncred? And if you're going to hedge your read with his subsequent silence, then how is this read of yours any less WIFOM-y than my 64?

Also, what scum benefit would I gain from offering a wishy-washy WIFOM explanation of a null read 3 pages into the game? Fro99er pressed me for a read and I gave what I had. Do you expect town!GuiltyLion to have a firmer read on Kop than scum!GuiltyLion? I'll notify everyone when my read on a player changes significantly one way or the other.

--

Strongest read I have right now is probably a townlean on SilverWolf, because of 69 and 70. These are the subtle kinds of town-motivated questions that scum have to be on the ball in order to quickly call out. I also give a few townpoints to ASP for linking to a past game of SilverWolf's (that he was not involved in), that indicates that he's put in some work to discern her alignment.

[GuiltyLion]

Actually, a quick EBWOP hedge on my last sentence - I didn't originally consider that this is multiball, so it's possible that ASP is one scum faction assessing whether SilverWolf could belong to the other. It might be better to just weigh it as evidence against a hypothesis that ASP and SilverWolf are on the same team.

[GuiltyLion]

Oh, maybe I misinterpreted the setup. I read the requirement that "there is at least one scum faction with 2 or more members" and thought that a setup with a scum faction of 2 and a scum faction of 1 is allowable.

But I realize now that if both have to have at least two members then it's very unlikely in terms of probability.

@mod - do any and all scum factions have to have at least 2 members?

Sorry if this is a newbie question

[GuiltyLion]

you seem reluctant to offer any sort of solid thoughts. All you've got is that everything is "not extremely indicative" or "slightly" one way or another.

That's because I don't yet have any solid thoughts on Soren. I simply don't have strong feelings one way or the other about a player who has 4 posts, especially since Soren is presumably competent and hasn't written anything that would be a noticeable scumtell (if he is scum). If you saw a scumtell that I missed, you should share it.

I willingly volunteered my relatively stronger read on SilverWolf and made a "solid thought" about something town that you did. I also notice your point about searching for links between Soren and me, that is a town motivation behind your question that I originally missed. So you're also a slight townlean for me now.

However, you didn't address what I think is my most important question: Do you expect town!GuiltyLion to have a firmer read on Kop [or Soren] than scum!GuiltyLion?

If you don't, then I don't see how my lack of solid reads on those players at this point can tell you anything about my alignment. Exploring a potential link between Soren and me makes sense, but otherwise I don't think it's productive to ask me for firmer reads this early in D1.

My comment about the silence thereafter from NM is not to discredit my read; it is a "tread wearily, this isn't always a scum thing from him" statement, intended to specify that a case built on him because of it wouldn't have my vote because it's not a telling thing.

Ah okay, this was a misunderstanding on my part. I thought that when you said "is in effect a null thing", you were clarifying that your overall read on him is null, but I see now that you meant that the silence is null, whereas the immediate claim pings you as gut town. I misread it and you are right to ignore my question about WIFOM.

[GuiltyLion]

Really? They appear to be easy questions that doesn't require much effort to me. I agree on your second read though.

I agree that they are easy questions that do not require much effort, but my thinking last night was that they are also questions that are easy to

forget

to ask. They're questions that don't immediately jump out to me as something that needs explanation, but then I read them and think, "yeah, you know, that is something worth pressing on". So my first gut read interpretation is that lazy scum that's trying to blend in (and not truly solve the game) would take those posts that she questioned at the surface level and not bother to press for details.

That being said, I wasn't a fan of SilverWolf's vote in 79. It felt rushed and lazy, but if her thinking was along the lines of the question she posed in 91 then it makes a bit more sense.

Also her point about Not_Mafia in 87 firmed up my townread of her a little bit as well.

UNVOTE: , I don't want my vote here anymore at the moment.
--

I don't think speculating on the setup is entirely useless. We shouldn't be implicating people based on convoluted theories about multiple scum factions, but I think it's worth keeping in mind that we may be dealing with two entirely separate groups of scum, and so associative tells do not necessarily guarantee towncred should one person flip scum. I think Kop had a good point about waiting for NKs.

However, I very much agree with Frogger that 81 reads like scum talking about theory as an effort to look town. There was a lot of significant content between 55 and 81 and Kop commented on none of it, and asked questions about none of it.

VOTE: Kop -

This is L-2

Kop

, what do you think of the back and forth between A Simple Plan and me, and did it tell you anything about our alignments?

My one hesitation about this vote is that Not_Mafia was the first vote here.

Not_Mafia

, you say not much is going on in Kop's ISO. What's going on in yours?

[GuiltyLion]

Also Fro99er could you address my question to you in 73?

[GuiltyLion]

You said you got a town lean from those questions but now you say that you have a lazy scum read on it?

No, I still have a townlean on SilverWolf. What I was trying to say is that lazy scum would forget to ask those questions, which is why they are evidence of a town mindset to me. It's not something that is impossible for scum to fake, but the two things she questioned are easily digestible on the surface, so my theory is that scum looking to press on something confusing/scummy for towncred in the early game would likely push elsewhere.

I have more thoughts but I am phoneposting on the way to work so they'll have to come later during lunch. Just wanted to answer the direct question to me for now.

[GuiltyLion]

Alright, I'm here for those lunchtime thoughts that I promised.

I don't want this to feel like it's OMGUS, but I really don't get a town or null feeling about it. If it's his playing style for both town and scum, then what can we class it as in this game?

The phrasing of these two lines pinged me as pretty scummy.

a) Why do you care what your vote feels like? If someone is your top scumread, they're your top scumread, and I don't think town should care about how it looks when they vote. If someone accuses you of OMGUS you can address it then, but preemptively explaining yourself feels over-defensive.

b) That question is pretty empty. It's crowdsourced to the audience, but people have already expressed some opinions on NM one way or the other. And if you recognize that it can come from town!Not_Mafia and scum!Not_Mafia, then why does it feel scummy rather than null to you?

Not_mafia's play is so sketchy right now that it's so easy to pin him as scum simply based on a lack of town mentality. And I guess I'm slightly biased here too since I'm reading not_mafia as town.

This is the kind of introspection that comes from town.

And then #121 came along, and like Vedith says, it doesn't give me any more reason to think Kop is town. I really don't like the vote switch here. Why unvote when you haven't heard anything at all from the person you just voted? Are you unvoting him just because other people are reading him as town? Or did Vedith appear so scummy in the four posts he made in between yours that you had to vote him immediately?

Why are people voting kop?

Also not liking this question at all. Most people gave reasons for their votes already, and this question is just kind of tossed out to the audience (similar to my point b to Kop above) - is there a specific person whose vote needs more explanation? It sounds to me like you're trying to see what people think and make them do the work of defending/re-evaluating their read, so that you can take a convenient position later once you see the responses to your question. At best, it's lazy, and I think it looks scummy regardless of Kop's alignment.

With respect to Vedith, this kind of trolling/joking is general playstyle for him, as I have looked at his meta before. I don't read alignment into it either way, if anything, I think he likes to act scummy as town to see who scumreads him and why.

With respect to Not_Mafia, he can't keep avoiding questions the whole game. I'm willing to give this kind of behavior a pass and not scumread him for it because it's Day 1. It would be a problem if he carries the attitude all the way into lategame, but as of now he is pushing on a scum suspect and offering a few explanations/reads, even if they are minimal.

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - "he can't keep avoiding questions the whole game,

so I don't see it as a huge problem or scum-indicative right now

*"

[GuiltyLion]

I'm getting close to prod range - not much has changed for me. Didn't think Vedith was intentionally softing but it was obvious that Fro99er thought he was, so I'm not sure why Vedith drew it out.

Wagon on grayfox feels forced, I don't scumread people for lack of content unless they are still posting in the thread. Still liking my vote on Kop for now but I'll be back later with some questions to maybe push the thread along.

[GuiltyLion]

Can someone lay out a Kop is scum case cuz I still don't see it?

For me it's primarily the unvote on Not_Mafia without any response from NM, which he justified because he wants his vote where it will do something. It's clear he still finds Not_Mafia suspicious because of the immediate roleclaim, yet his vote is on Vedith for a lack of scumhunting and he hasn't asked Vedith any questions. There's a lot of IIoA instead of looking for answers. It's not a bulletproof case but it's who I'm most suspicious of right now. I just don't think he should care about what we think of his wagon/vote, especially this early in D1.

@Kop

- if you could get someone lynched right now regardless of what the rest of the town thought, who would it be? Is Vedith more likely to flip scum than Not_Mafia?

@Vedith

- Why is grayfox's lurking more likely to come from scum than RL-busy town? He's at three votes and has several people asking him for answers, what more pressure can we put on him?

[GuiltyLion]

@GL and Soren

, how do you feel about the Fox wagon?

Don't like it, don't like it at all. Vedith has only been pushing Fox and hasn't really poked around much beyond that, other than a back-and-forth with Fro99er that didn't go anywhere. ASP has no content and openly admitted to sheeping with his vote. I have no idea why Fro99er was willing to hammer so quickly (we have 6 days left) and the entirety of the case on Fox seems to be that he was lurking originally and that his meta shows that he's more active as town. I agree that he should be posting more frequently than he had up to that point, but I don't agree with using meta as justification for a scumread, as meta is easily manipulated and changes often. Meta should only supplement understanding of playstyle, I wouldn't use it as the foundation of a case to lynch someone. Plus he even explicitly said that RL has been keeping him from this game. The lynch feels really rushed to me which means scum is probably okay with it.

It's also eyebrow raising to me that both Fro99er and Kop are asking for a claim already. Feels like rolefishing.

@Kop

, 268 and 269, why on earth would you say that? What does town gain from you saying that?

Also, what are your thoughts on the Fox wagon? You said you think he's a good lynch but didn't vote him, do you think there's scum on the wagon?

[GuiltyLion]

Is it not an instance for you to ask for somoene to roleclaim or do it yourself, if your one vote away from being lynched? Or are you more happy for someone to keep there roles to themselves, and just be allowed to be lynched?

Usually I figure the person who declares intent asks for the claim. What pinged me about the way that you did it was that 254 is asking for a claim without declaring intent to hammer.

And also can I point out GL, I didn't say at all in this game, that he would be a good lynch. Could you point that out to me where I said that?

Sure:

If I had to lynch, it would be in this order 1) Vedit

2)Fox

3) NM

Is your top 2 scumread not a good lynch? And what do you think of this Not_Mafia wagon?

Pls don't be a pats fan. Pls don't be a pats fan

Pats had a bye this week, so it's unlikely, right? Fingers crossed!

~Ravens fan

[GuiltyLion]

Hahaha yesss, I was such a mess Thursday but it all worked out for the good guys in the end. I still think we have a shot at playoffs if we win the next few games, we'll see what this Givens guy can add to the offense cause it's gonna be tough without SSS next week.

Anyway I got Soren and SW as town leans that I don't want to vote today, barring massive slips in their posts. Fro99er and Grayfoxxx are living in that 'probably town but could be skilled scum' area. I doubt Not_Mafia would lurk this hard as scum but I agree he needs more pressure to start actually playing. Still sorting Vedith and ASP, ASP for lack of content and Vedith for content that could go either way, I have a hard time reading him. I don't like how aggressively he pushed the Fox wagon for a weak case and his back and forth with Fro99er where he drew out that Fro99er thought he was softing. Still have reasons to lean scum on Kop. That's where I'm at right now.

[GuiltyLion]

SW - talk to me about your read on Kop? What's he done to advance the game in a protown way that scum wouldn't be able to imitate?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't really have much time tonight, I'll try to post something more substantive tomorrow. This game is weird, very little content/activity but then these fast wagons spring up out of nowhere. I'm really not a fan of NM being at L-1, I'd much prefer an ASP lynch if we're going to lynch a lurker since ASP has provided basically nothing with his lurking whereas Not_Mafia has made several good pushes/points.

Scumreads outside of Kop - mainly ASP (catchup didn't do it for me), then probably Grayfoxxx - I originally thought the case on him was weak and so I figured he was probably town, since people were quick to want to lynch him. But now rereading his ISO I do agree with the mantra that he's been defending himself but not really looking at things much elsewhere, and he seems happy to be pushing the easy lynches. So since this NM wagon has Kop and Grayfoxxx on it, I'm not really inclined to support it. I would like to emphasize that Kop is still far and away my biggest scumread and I will try to write up my points against him tomorrow. The only "town" thing he's done is repeatedly softed which I find extremely annoying because it's just WIFOM about his alignment and anti-town at best.

I thought I liked where Soren was at for most of the day but I agree 393 was extremely weak. That said, Soren's reads are mostly the same as mine, which usually means that person is also town.

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - when I say Soren's reads are mostly the same as mine, I don't mean in terms of the tentativeness/hedging, but rather I agree with his town-bloc and my main 3 scum suspects are all in the bottom of his 'null' pile, other than SilverWolf who I'm leaning town on as well.

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah I'm growing more and more unhappy with this NM wagon, especially since he claimed tracker. Why don't we lynch ASP, NM can track Kop, and Vedith can shoot Grayfox? (since I'm sure he's going to do that regardless of whatever we do today)

[GuiltyLion]

Or we can lynch Kop and NM can track ASP. I'm fine with that too. I'll try to dress up a Kop case at lunch, phone posting on the bus to work right now.

[GuiltyLion]

But the advantage of NM tracking Kop is it resolves this annoying softing business from Kop and basically 1v1s them on their claims.

[GuiltyLion]

Actually I just read over the deck and there's a mafia tracker so the tracker claim can't really be validated either way, nevermind. Kop case coming soon.

[GuiltyLion]

Kop is claiming cop (I think). Why push him, if you're unhappy with people pushing NM?

Kop hasn't claimed anything, just said that he's going to "visit" people, while completely un-pressured to volunteer that information. If he's not going to claim a hard role then I view those softs as extremely worthless - especially because we might be in LyLo tomorrow. Imagine a 3 person team, we mislynch today and scum kills someone, now it's 7 alive with 3 person scumteam and Kop claims cop with a 'guilty' on a townie. If he's really a cop, it's completely anti-town to soft it so forwardly like he has. If he's really a cop, then had Vedith not claimed then all these softs would do is draw attention to him and get him killed by scum.

Is anyone opposed to an ASP lynch? Is anyone townreading him?

NM is a fucking idiot if he's a for real tracker and claimed in his first post. He's also not exactly looking town to me in any way, shape, or form this game. Also, all the PR softs, hints, etc. people need to either STFU about it or ignore it. Speculating on what it going on with all that is anti-town at best and very, very annoying. Let's leave the WIFOM out there for scum to deal with. No more talk about that shit!!

SW

- what are your opinions on Kop's 268, 269 and 406, if you think speculating/talking about PRs in a WIFOM manner is anti-town? With my recent posts with PR speculation, I haven't introduced any new information that wasn't already out there, so I think it's useful evidence in deciding on a lynch target.

Ignoring RVS, N_M has voted on grayfoxxx and Kop.
Kop has voted on Vedith and N_M, while sitting on the sidelines encouraging the Fox lynch (but never voting).

If we think Fox is likely scum and Vedith likely town, then N_M's pushes are a lot more town-motivated than Kop's.

I know I said I'd write more at lunch but work today is unexpectedly busy. I'll make more posts tonight.

[GuiltyLion]

Of course I've heard of fakeclaims, I acknowledge it could be fake in my first couple posts. I'm just frustrated that my top scumread is pushing an easy lynch and everyone seems to be totally okay with it alongside Kop's stupid as hell softing and giving him the benefit of the doubt. Part of that is my fault because I haven't pushed him that hard, partially because these past few days have been a ton of RL work coalescing around this game's deadline.

I'm starting to get the sense that there's possibly some cooperation between some group of fox/silverwolf/kop, given how quick they all jumped onto the NM wagon and how much Kop has coasted without suspicion. Additionally, NM is a gut townlean but I don't want to be his lawyer and his lack of effort/transparency is starting to wear thin.

I'll think about no-lynch, not sure that it's the best course of action but I don't have a lot of confidence in my scumreads either. Gonna watch hockey at a friend's and unwind, I'll be back tonight.

[GuiltyLion]

Alright here's the abridged gist of why I find Kop scummier than Not_Mafia:

KOP

Spoiler: Kop

Kop's first serious vote was on Not_Mafia, because of "roleclaim and naked vote with feeble excuse". If a vote has a reason, it's not naked IMO, and then there was the hedging with "I don't want this to look like OMGUS" which I already called out my problems with in 137.

However, after Soren and Fro99er say Kop's vote looks like it's going after an easy target, Kop immediately switches to Vedith, with no posts from Not_Mafia in between his first vote and his second. "Jesus bloody wept" - seriously? Crazy overreaction to literally two people disagreeing with you.

Next, Fox wagon picks up steam, and Kop in 158 sheeps the lurking accusation and says, "consider my vote on gray but I'm not going to put him at L-1 yet". This is encouraging a wagon without throwing any meaningful support behind it. Would look bad if we see a scum flip on Fox.

In 177 Kop's lynch order is:

1) Vedit 2)Fox 3) NM

He makes some more meta arguments about scum!Fox without ever voting him, pushes for a claim from Fox when he hits L-1 without stating intent. Then randomly softs his visiting role, meanwhile there's literally no pressure on Kop at this point in the game.

Says he's against an ASP policy lynch in 278. But his whole reason for suspecting Fox has been a lack of posts/answers to questions coupled with his meta where he has been more active. So to me this looks inconsistent: Kop initially suspects Fox for lurking, Fox comes in and defends himself, Kop doesn't want to lynch ASP for lurking, but Kop doesn't say what's particularly scummy about Fox's posts in this game.

"I never said Fox would be a good lynch" in 340, this is inconsistent with 177. Then says in 365 that Fox is falling down his scumlist, but doesn't elaborate or explain why. This is the point in which he first prefers NM over Fox.

384 calls out Not_Mafia for WIFOM, but I see literally no WIFOM in suggesting to Vedith that he needs to shoot. Like, that's literally just a statement to Vedith. More on this in my NM section.

And now in 452 he's suddenly willing to vote A Simple Plan. Part of the reason I suggested a ASP lynch is to see if Kop would change his mind from 278. He did.

CONCLUSION

: I don't really see consistent behavior here. Kop has voted for Not_Mafia, Vedith, encouraged a Fox lynch without ever voting it, then back to Not_Mafia, now onto ASP. He's just surfing along the tides of prevailing public opinion and it looks like he's okay with almost any popular wagon. I see someone pretending to be town and pretending to scumhunt, not someone being town and scumhunting. His scumreads involve some form of Not_Mafia, Fox, ASP, and Vedith (until the claim), shifting around in order and lynch-desirability without any discernible reason as to why.

NOT_MAFIA

Spoiler: Not_Mafia

Opens with the claim. This is about on par with Kop's softing, so I'll be fair and say at best I cannot understand why he felt compelled to do this, other than a joke.

Votes Kop, because there's "not much going on" in his ISO. That's not a detailed explanation, but it's obvious he feels Kop is not really scumhunting.

Furthers his scumread on Kop by pointing out the quick vote switch from N_M to Vedith. 124 is a completely transparent reason to suspect someone.

238 sheeps Fro99er's push on Fox. This is a poor vote, as many of you have acknowledged.

264 explains the vote in a little more detail, similar to the pattern of vote -> explain on his Kop vote.

SW accuses Not_Mafia of being scum because 'town would have made sure Fro99er was correct'. semi-valid point from SW, but here's my issue: wouldn't scum feel more compelled to explain their vote than Town? Like scum's entire goal in this game is to blend in and avoid unnecessary suspicion. I think a lack of fact-checking when sheeping a case is generally just more likely to come from lazy/apathetic town than scum. If NM trusts that Fro99er isn't gonna bullshit about meta, or that Fox would call him out on it if he did, then it makes sense to sheep a meta-case and assume the case is either valid or will be appropriately rebuffed. Not_Mafia himself even points out that "scum is more likely to dress things up" in 168.

374 is telling Vedith he needs to shoot to prove his role. How is this anti-town or WIFOM? It's the only thing that makes sense - if you're going to claim dayvig, either you will get killed or you will get roleblocked. Therefore, might as well shoot to prove yourself and use your ability in the event of the former. In the event of the latter, you will know there is RB'er and therefore even if you are lynched/flip, town gains information. It just seems to me like common sense, and I don't get why Kop thinks it's WIFOM. It's not.

I have to admit I'm missing something about the policy lynch discussion in 411. I guess Not_Mafia is saying you can policy lynch a townread (Kop said Soren should not want to vote a townread) because their behavior is anti-town and the WIFOM about whether or not they could be scum is not worth bringing to LyLo. Kop again accuses N_M of using WIFOM, which I still don't see, just short opinions.

Finally, Not_Mafia tells Vedith to shoot Gray or Kop (two of my own three scum suspects). Again, just straightforward expression of his opinion.

CONCLUSION:

There's bits of scummy/anti-town looking things in here (claim, blatant sheeping, multiple prods and a lack of detailed explanation of his posts/reads), but the overall sum of his actions seems to be coming from a town mindset from where I'm sitting. I really think he's just apathetic/intentionally scummy-looking town. Nothing he's done has pinged me as a "scum would gain more from this than town would" post in the way that several of Kop's have. It's obvious that his scumreads are Kop and Grayfoxxx, possible scumleans on ASP and Silverwolf, and that he's townleaning on everyone else.

Short of any flips/associative information, I don't think my reads can go any further on these two, but it just looks to me like Kop is trying to fit in and get anyone lynched, whereas Not_Mafia is pushing his own suspects and trying to expose scum. I've been having a hard time because I want to settle on a target that Kop doesn't appear happy to lynch, but I can't do that because literally anyone who starts getting votes becomes someone he's willing to vote on. Fox would probably be the best candidate for a possible partner if I am to assume scum!Kop, but like I said earlier, I'm pretty sure Vedith is just gonna shoot him (and Fox doesn't really seem too concerned about it).

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - vig, not dayvig. Not sure where the 'day' part come from, that's just me being tired.

[GuiltyLion]

Well I hope ASP is trolling or NM is scum, hah. I'm good with this lynch, I was gonna post intent but NM fast hammered. I think Fro99er is town but I'll revisit after we get flips. Sorry for lack of activity, work has been very busy this week as I am on quality monitoring. But wanted to get these thoughts in before thread lock.

[GuiltyLion]

Kop did you receive a "town" result or a "not mafia" result on NM?

I'm okay with mass claim but will wait for others opinions.

[GuiltyLion]

And you are claiming "Cop" as your role?

[GuiltyLion]

Ah, I apologize, I made a mistake here, I thought you had already claimed cop. I see now that I was mistaken, it was Grayfoxxxx/Vedith who had said they thought you were a cop.

If you are not a cop then I have no problem with what you have said.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm a cop, which is why I was pressing so hard on Kop, because a cop can only tell "mafia" or "not mafia". I'd really love to know which role can insta-confirm someone as town. Idgaf whether he's alien or mafia, I care that he somehow confirmed NM's alignment as town.

Investigated Fro99er last night, he is

not mafia

. But he may or may not be an alien.

[GuiltyLion]

Oh shit. There's one other town role he could be that confirms his target as town...

Yeah. No. Kop should not even claim. He's conftown IMO.

Okay, hold up, I don't think I can just let this go. I am looking at the Basic Mafia and Aliens subdeck linked in the original post, and as far as my understanding goes, none of these roles can confirm a target as town. Especially not in the way that Kop has been softing ('I will visit x to help me know about them').

Further, if I'm missing it and there is a role that confirms someone as town, then scum are equally capable of figuring out what you just figured out. So I don't understand what benefit Kop not claiming serves, unless you are willing to gamble the game on scum being as confused as I am. Kop even already said that he will claim when massclaim happens, in 529. So if his role is more valuable unclaimed, it doesn't seem like he was on the same page.

Where I'm sitting, this is potentially LyLo (4v3), and so all information is important. If Kop scumslipped by 'confirming' NM as town, then we need a hard roleclaim to settle this. However, I can't believe that you would defend a partner so blatantly, so there must be something that either you or I am missing about the Basic Mafia and Aliens subdeck here, and I want to know what it is.

[GuiltyLion]

ah shit okay had no idea that was how Hider worked, I assumed it just avoids targets from other players. That totally explains all the softing, too. My bad.

Waiting on Soren

[GuiltyLion]

Still don't like that Vedith shot GF after his obvious soft though.

1 - I didn't say that.

Vedith, what does this mean, exactly?

I agree Kop and Not_Mafia are conftown (barring an incredible gambit/scum game from NM).

Soren's claim makes him a viable partner if Vedith flips scum.

Unfortunately since Fox is a confirmed protective/roleblocker role, we have to consider whether he prevented the kill by either jailing the target or the killer. I don't think it's safe to assume that he jailed NM.

Vedith looks pretty scummy, but I can't quite convince myself yet that he would claim vig D1 knowing that he would have to produce a body.

I need to look over some D1 ISOs but I'll be back with more in a bit.

[GuiltyLion]

Vedith what are your scumreads right now?

Say vs see explanation makes sense, I guess. Not sure why you didn't fix it since it changes the meaning of your post entirely.

[GuiltyLion]

Actually with a not mafia on Fro99er the only thing he could be is an alien and that would mean 3 possible kills. Only one went through. The only way Fro99er is an alien with a blocked kill is if Vedith is the vig and scum shot GF and he was protected and then the alien shot whoever GF protected.

Why do you rule out the possibility of an Alien scum faction with no mafia team?

Also, claiming conspiracy theorist with an already flipped conspiracy theorist seems like a pretty bad fakeclaim and we know scum don't have the same roles as town so.

Yeah, it comes down to Soren and Vedith as scum. I do want to ISO them and others to make sure but this is pretty much where I'm at as of right now. Of those two, I'd rather go for Vedith just in case I'm way off and Soren is actually a doc.

Otherwise, I generally agree with this. I would really like to see some scumreads from Vedith/Soren since it feels like everyone is leaning towards them being scum, which is giving me one of those 'this lynch is too easy' vibes.

[GuiltyLion]

Btw, can I point out that someone else could have also killed Gray.

This is an argument I don't understand. If you are the town vig, why on earth would scum risk wasting a kill by going after Gray? It was pretty obvious you were shooting him given how aggressively you pushed his D1 wagon. I even predicted you would do so in 419 and 435. I don't know why you would use this as defense instead of just assuming that Fox or Soren blocked the kill.

Which brings me to this next point:

Soren doc claim? Did any one ask why he protected GL and not Gray if gray soft claimed?

Why are you throwing shade on Soren? If you vigged Fox, then scum either also killed Fox (which would be stupid, as I explained above), or Fox blocked the kill/Soren healed me. If you're town vig, it seems like you should be much more convinced of these latter two scenarios than the rest of us, but you're introducing these defenses which don't feel like they're coming from a town vig mindset.

Another post coming up in a sec, because there are other points outside of Vedith that I want to touch on

[GuiltyLion]

SilverWolf, I don't think Gray's soft was as obvious as you are making it out to be and pushing Vedith and Soren on this point feels like a reach from you. First, I don't see anything in Fox's soft that implies a particular role, it's just an ominous warning that Vedith should not shoot him. That could come from town or scum.

I've also been suspicious of Soren all game and she's been very inactive and I am having a hard time following her train of thought on some of her reads where Vedith is pretty much crystal clear.

How is Vedith crystal clear? D1 I see scumread on Fox (confirmed town), and then complete confusion on D2, suspicious of Kop, me, you, and Soren in 604.

Looking at the ASP lynch, we have Kop, Not_Mafia, Fro99er, SilverWolf, and Fox on it. Fox is confirmed town, Kop/Not_Mafia very likely town. I didn't get a chance to vote because of the quick hammer but I would have been on it too, so you all can include me on it if you want.

I doubt it was an all town wagon. If we believe a Vedith/Soren scumteam, then ASP was lynched without either scum pushing it or being on it. Seems unlikely to me. I want to make this point today before we get to D3, in case I die tonight.

That said, we need to hear more from Soren. I'm willing to lynch Vedith unless he can convince me of a better lynch candidate. Fro99er has probably had the towniest play on D2 so far.

[GuiltyLion]

I mean, to try and use me typing say instead of see or whatever it was as an argument proves how fucking petty this game is.

Dude I never said you were scummy for that, it was just annoying that we had to spend a back and forth clarifying what you meant. Instead of just complaining about how attacked you feel, put some effort in and tell us who you think scum is.

SilverWolf you say PoE means Vedith/Soren. What if Vedith's not scum?

Also I hate to complicate things more but Kop do you get any kind of indication of a successful/failed hide? Otherwise you may have been jailed and we don't know for certain that Not_Mafia is town.

[GuiltyLion]

I assumed JK roleblock resolves first before a hide, but I might be wrong. I don't know if hiders can even be RB'd. Regardless it's probably not worth speculating on at this juncture since I think there are better suspects than NM. It just would have been cool if you had like a hide confirmation or something so we'd know for sure.

Sorennn where are you?

[GuiltyLion]

Ah I was saying if you were jailkept, not if NM was jailkept. But this is a distraction I just wanted to bring it up because it struck me last night as a possibility to consider that NM might not be confirmed town.

[GuiltyLion]

Oh unless you mean you die if you don't hide? I should really just do some research on this role.

[GuiltyLion]

Silver that wiki link you posted on Enabler says that Enablers enable a 'role' but not a person. Wouldn't that make Fro99er conftown if you knew beforehand that you enabled him specifically?

It would make sense to say that you know you enable Fro99er once you knew that he was a Conspiracy Theorist, but he hadn't claimed yet when you claimed. So if you knew that you enabled "Conspiracy Theorist" roles then it would have been possible that you were only enabling ASP at the time you made 536

Did your role PM say Fro99er or "Conspiracy Theorist"?

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah but read the Enabler link... says Enablers enable roles not players.

[GuiltyLion]

Okay well the point is there are discrepancies between what you posted as your role and that wiki description of your role, but maybe enabler works differently here than it does in that wiki description. The fact that the list in the subdeck says 'linked player is random' supports your case.

Everyone's claim can be fake so I don't think you should take offense to people trying to figure out whether yours is or not.

At this point it seems like Silver, Soren, Fro99er, myself are okay with lynching Vedith... would like to hear from Kop and Not_Mafia before voting.

Also Kop you are still misunderstanding me - what if YOU were JK'd, is what I was trying to say. But agreed with Silver it doesn't reallly matter because we don't know who Fox JK'd.

[GuiltyLion]

I think it's Vedith plus Soren scumteam. Probably Mafia since Soren is not an alien. However, I'd be willing to have Soren checked tonight by GL. She should protect GL while this happens is she's town. This would solve the issue of Soren one way or the other. I usually don't like to tell scum what PR's are doing overnight but at this point, I think it hardly matters. Fro99er can do what he wants. Even if I die, he can still check someone one more time as long as I'm not lynched today.

This paragraph makes complete sense to me. I've been trying to do my homework to avoid giving scum a free mislynch on Vedith here, but I don't see a lot of obvious scum jumping on this wagon, lack of NK combined with Vedith's defense/lack-of-D2-scumhunting looks bad for his vig claim.

Biggest paranoias for me are some kind of Alien faction with Fro99er+SW+(possibly even Soren?) because Fro99er is extremely sure about Vedith, or a Soren+SW scumteam. If we have Soren+SW, town still has a chance in D3 and it should be obvious one of them is scum. If we have Soren+SW+Fro99er we lose, but I have no reason to think such a hypothetical team is

more likely

than the Vedith+Soren team, and I reserve the right to complain postgame about NM and Kop not helping me out here if that is the case

I'll give Vedith some time to post. But I'm okay with you voting him SW, he is currently my top lynch choice as well.

[GuiltyLion]

these quickhammers... did we just lose?

investigating Soren tonight if Vedith flips mafia, if he flips town then noooobodyyyy knowwwsss

[GuiltyLion]

if he flips Alien then I'm probably worthless and Soren should protect Fro99er

[GuiltyLion]

Kop+NM+Fro99er makes sense as a possible Alien team, I guess. I think the massclaim hurt me more than it helped, I just kinda assumed Kop wouldn't crumb his role all game and then clear the obvious suspect immediately on D2.

[GuiltyLion]

nah if town lost there's plenty of blame to go around no one has to shoulder sole responsibility

[GuiltyLion]

I had a townread on NM through D1, probably would have pushed him more D2 except Kop cleared him as town which I feel like would make him town regardless of Kop's alignment, unless they are a team together.

we're prob just overreacting and Vedith is scum

[GuiltyLion]

Fro99er I still think Soren should protect you if Vedith flips Alien

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah I would just hide behind NM again. If you hide behind a suspect and announce it scum could just kill you to WIFOM the shit out of us so I don't see how that helps.

[GuiltyLion]

gg all, it was a lot of fun playing with everyone! My D1 reads were bad but I'm glad we kept NM alive :p

Fantastic job SW and Kop in LyLo! Fro99er I feel like you got PoE'd more than explicitly caught, tough break at the end. And thanks CDB for modding!

[GuiltyLion]

loool town can win day phase in spirit whereas Fro99er can get actual win