Scumleague FF 2015 (Locke, Yiley, TD37!)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I guess I'll take my spot in league 2, place high enough to get boosted back to league 1 next year, place low enough to get sent back to league 2 that year and on and on.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I prefer Sunday, might be out of town playing Magic on Saturday.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

For what it's worth, in the future I think it makes more sense to bookend divisional games because that leads to teams never playing divisional games during bye weeks.

In the future, it makes even more sense to just get rid of divisions.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm not sure that's true. Even outside of the "it's fun" perspective, there's no real way to run a 12 team league and have a fair distribution of games unless we want to truncate our seasons to 11 weeks (which admittedly would allow for 2 week playoff games if we weren't using Yahoo). The problem is that in a 13 or 14 week season teams HAVE to play an asymmetrical schedule. Divisions at least give structure to that and assure that at least within divisions you're competing on the same field.

Personally I don't see what's "fun" about playing random people in a divisional race as opposed to playing them in a division-less structure. Maybe a few years ago when things were more stable you could cultivate rivalries but things are too big and mobile now for that to be a compelling argument to me. I certainly don't feel anything resembling a rivalry towards BS2000 just because we're in the same division. As for everything else I think I said it best in this unresponded to comment from last December.

It's not arbitrary - the goal is that, since we can't have identical schedules for the whole 12 team league, we can at least make groups of four teams have the same schedules amongst themselves, and in this case it makes some sense to reward the winner of each grouping, since they have done best amongst teams with the same schedule, who they have also played twice. In some cases, that means one of the teams left out of the playoffs has a better case than someone who got in - IS v. Tally is your example, though Tally was a deserving playoff team by EPE standards, it's hasdgfas that is the outlier - but in other cases a better team can finish with a worse record as a division winner than the fifth place team (Yiley v. Panzer in League 2).

For me, having divisions is more fun, and also is more elegant. I do think ignoring divisions would give "better results" in some fraction of cases, but that fraction is small - much of the time, the division winners were all among the four best teams by any measure, and occasionally one would get bumped in favor of an inferior team if we did away with divisions because of scheduling quirks. I don't think making a change is worthwhile, but if there is strong support for getting rid of divisions I will consider it.

I guess my big problem with that logic (besides the unaddressed double jeopardy of being in a weak or strong division) is that I don't see the schedules being that different because of the league size. Divisions sort of (and not even that well, NFC South) work in the NFL because you don't face half the teams in the league. The Bengals and the 49ers share two common opponent this year; the Bengals and Raiders still share only four common opponents for five shared games. But in fantasy we literally play everyone at least once, so that's a minimum of eleven games of overlap with a random other team in a fourteen game schedule. As such schedule variance matters so very little compared to random weekly variance of individual teams.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Jasmine isnt playing anymore. Shes free wins because she doesnt swap out on byes

We need some mechanism to replace people who flake or need to radically change our playoff structure to include more teams. Free wins seriously screw over the wild card spot in playoffs. If the free win slot plays everyone in their division twice, how is anyone in another division meant to finish ahead of all of them?

Yay! Divisions.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Jasmine isnt playing anymore. Shes free wins because she doesnt swap out on byes

We need some mechanism to replace people who flake or need to radically change our playoff structure to include more teams. Free wins seriously screw over the wild card spot in playoffs. If the free win slot plays everyone in their division twice, how is anyone in another division meant to finish ahead of all of them?

Yay! Divisions.

Divisions PROTECT against this. Without using divisions, teams still play the dead team multiple times, but the damage is wider because all slots are essentially wild card spots. With divisions, everyone in the division gets the same boost from the dead team, so the only damage done is to the single wild card spot, while the other two divisional spots are not affected by the dead team.

The ONLY way to totally eliminate it is to make sure that teams play each other the same number of times, which would necessitate an 11-week schedule with 12 teams.

I mean you are right about unbalanced schedules versus balanced but still wrong about divisions.

No matter the format someone is going to suck, maybe it's the guy who doesn't even try, maybe it's the guy who drafted awful, maybe it's the guy whose roster is decimated by injuries. Without divisions you've got four open spots to compete for and while it stinks to be on the hard end of the schedule it happens; with divisions when you're on the hard end of the schedule you're already locked out of two spots so those other two spots matter all that much more and you amplify the schedule problem because if you've got the hard schedule you're competing against the good teams in your hard schedule for one spot (divisional) and you're comparing records against teams that have an easier schedule for the last spot (wild card). If you're going to have an unbalanced scheduled the best way to minimize feel bad situations and to give the best teams the best chance at the playoffs is to give them as many spots to compete for as possible not to arbitrarily lock some away.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

You have an opinion of what reduces hurt feelings, but I can tell you without hesitation that I'd rather be screwed by uneven divisions than screwed because someone randomly got to play some team twice and got a marginal spot over me in a divisionless system. This is essentially how it is in one of my other leagues (There are divisions, but they're meaningless, the schedule doesn't follow divisions and overall standing is how playoff spots are filled) operates and it stinks. It really, really stinks.

But uneven divisions is caused by the exact same unbalanced schedule that you're already complaining about! It just makes the situation worse because of the double jeopardy that I've mentioned. Like I get it, you hate unbalanced schedules and frankly I'm ambivalent towards them but you're letting your dislike for them blind you to an obviously superior system given unbalanced schedules exist.

Let's play a game; you have a 12 team league and everything is completely predictable, if you schedule a game between teams 1 and 2 then 1 wins; a game between 2 and 3 then 2 wins. So here I'll create a divisional structure and the records it would yield.

1 14-0*
2 12-2*
3 10-4
4 8-6

5 10-4*
6 8-6
7 6-8
12 0-14

8 7-7*
9 5-9
10 3-11
11 1-13

We've screwed over teams 3 and 4 in favor of teams 5 and 8. But let's imagine the exact same schedule but without divisions and suddenly the playoffs are teams 1, 2, 3, and 5. Team 4 still gets screwed and that's unfortunate but by breaking up the divisions we've already produced a superior if not optimal outcome.

I bet you, that you cannot create a scenario where divisions produce a superior result to a divisionless structure.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Assuming projections play out as they currently are for this week, Peg will clinch his division and DDDP will clinch a playoff spot in league 2

I won't technically clinch this week, there is an exact six game scenario where I (or some other 10-4 team but likely me) get left out because yay divisions. I have to lose my last two, Rhinox has to win his last two; Rhinox would steal the division away from me on divisional record tiebreaker, Yiley needs to win out and Wraith wins his non-Yiley game which makes them both 10-4; Yiley wins the division on divisional record that means Wraith and I would be competing for the wild card spot and Wraith has an approx. 20 point PF lead after this week and would go 1-1 over the last two games to my 0-2 stretch.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Reading through DDDP's posts and the post above this, lead me to the conclusion we should get rid of divisions

Well yeah, it's asinine that a 7-5 team should have a playoff spot clinched when four teams with better records exist and don't have playoff spots locked up. Especially since it makes a mockery of the unbalanced schedule argument; PEG and I have literally played an identical schedule to this point other than our match between each other and one additional game (both against a 3-9 team); the one game difference warrants overriding my three game lead in record?

Now think if we had these exact same schedules but didn't have divisions: instead of PEG having the luck of the draw to be thrown into the easy division and already snatched a playoff spot instead PEG would have a slightly easier schedule down the stretch run and we'd be wondering if he could convert that schedule into the wins he'd need to grab the three or four seed with some losses elsewhere. It's not perfect because the schedule is unbalanced but it's a whole lot better than the status quo.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

The idea of divisions isn't that they are more fair (although I've learned from this thread that some people think they are?). It's that it's more fun. If you are 6-6 and there is no shot at making the playoffs, but you're pretty safe from relegation, you might get careless. Because why bother? But if you are 6-6 and tied for a division lead, you're going right down to the wire. Championships tend to go to teams that deserve it most of the time anyway. But yeah, just like the fact that we play head to head and not roto, it's just more fun. Even the relegation system adds to it. I mean, I'm 4-8 and I care more about this league than most of my others right now. If it didn't matter, I probably wouldn't have just won against Rob because I'd leave the better pickups for the past month to people who have a shot to do something and focus on my teams that are in playoff races right now. I mean, yeah, I always play to win. But I put extra time in where I really care.

Relegation solves most of the competitive at the bottom argument; I don't know the other league standings, but literally league 2 wouldn't change without divisions, same teams would be in the playoff race, same teams would be in the relegation race. They'd just be shuffled a bit in a way that makes sense.

whoa is me says the guy who hasnt had an opponent score 100 or more points against him.

Divisions are fun. Divisions exist in every('major')sport.

Like....

I'm in 5th in an overall picture.

SERIOUSLY?

SERIOUSLY?

I made this argument earlier in the season, at the beginning of the season and at the end of last season; this has nothing to do with my current standing, it's just demonstrative of the problem. Fun is a subjective point and one I disagree with and pro sports have divisions... seriously. The only reason divisions even remotely work in the NFL is the lack of schedule overlap but that's not an issue in fantasy, we share 11/14 games and the most foreword thinking league in American sports, the NBA, have realized how worthless they are and have all but phased them out.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Our system is fine. The no division argument is dumb since groups of 4 teams will still be playing the same schedules anyway.

That's not true, schedules would/should be randomized instead of featuring pods so each team would face three random other teams; I've only assumed identical schedules in my arguments because they could randomly turn out that way and because it's easier to demonstrate the inferiority of the current system by 1-to-1 comparison.

I'm just baffled by the continued calls for complexity when the solution is so simple and the default in every fantasy football league.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Our system is fine. The no division argument is dumb since groups of 4 teams will still be playing the same schedules anyway.

That's not true, schedules would/should be randomized instead of featuring pods so each team would face three random other teams; I've only assumed identical schedules in my arguments because they could randomly turn out that way and because it's easier to demonstrate the inferiority of the current system by 1-to-1 comparison.

I'm just baffled by the continued calls for complexity when the solution is so simple and the default in every fantasy football league.

I don't think you understand how not different the schedules would be without divisions, there would still be pods so to speak.

I know exactly how schedules would work; Team 1 faces Teams 2-12 once and then play three games against previously played teams. Now you can schedule them so that each team in Teams 1-4 faces each other in a little pod, but it's just as easy to have Team 1 face Teams 3, 7, and 10 and Team 2 face Teams 3, 8, and 9 and for Team 3 to face Teams 1, 2, and 12 or whatever other random pairings get spit out of a random number generator.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm ambivalent about Flex replacing a WR spot; I'm opposed to it replacing a RB spot. And I hate short benches.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

FLEX
FLEX
FLEX
FLEX
K
FLEX
K
FLEX
STRONG SAFETY
FLEX
CONCESSION SALES
FLEX
FLEX

Ha, I didn't suggest it because I'm sure someone around here would think it was a great idea, but I've amused myself for a couple years with the idea that there should be more flex for realism's sake, something like...

QB
RB/WR/TE
RB/WR/TE
RB/WR/TE
WR/TE
WR/TE
K
DEF

If you want to run the Fantasy Wishbone you can, if you want to run the Fantasy Air Raid you can do that as well.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

In playoffs: PEG 8-5

In playoff contention: DDDP, Rhinox, Yiley, Wraith (10-3, 9-4, 9-4, 9-4) It is possible to not make playoffs if you are 10-4 in league 2

Assuming projections play out as they currently are for this week, Peg will clinch his division and DDDP will clinch a playoff spot in league 2

I won't technically clinch this week, there is an exact six game scenario where I (or some other 10-4 team but likely me) get left out because yay divisions. I have to lose my last two, Rhinox has to win his last two; Rhinox would steal the division away from me on divisional record tiebreaker, Yiley needs to win out and Wraith wins his non-Yiley game which makes them both 10-4; Yiley wins the division on divisional record that means Wraith and I would be competing for the wild card spot and Wraith has an approx. 20 point PF lead after this week and would go 1-1 over the last two games to my 0-2 stretch.

It's like a prophecy coming true before our very eyes.

Tell me about it, I can't even trust in a loss because you, Yiley, and Wraith are all favorites this week. Yahoo's bad predictions have the exact combination of switches that need to be thrown in combination up to 11.1% up from the 1% and change it was last week.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

RELEGATION

Not regulation.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Dalton is out after one drive, Eifert is doubtful to return, well I've lost.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Well you've missed the important part, the worst team in the league has given Lamora their only loss of the season wooo!

Also I'm beating Panzer, time to drag him down with me!

bring him to us!

Interestingly t-bone, wraith and I will likely still be in league 2 next year. If DDDP gets 4th overall, we could form an afc north like division in league 2 next year
T-bone = Ravens
Wraith = Steelers
DDDP = Bengals
Me = Browns

No, Tannehill is going to suck and I'm going to find a new quarterback and tight end and win a playoff game and get promoted. You can keep Rhinox instead and double up on one of your awful teams.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

FF isn't going to be fair. While there is some skill involved its going to be mostly luck.

but if we got rid of divisions then the whole "but I scored more points than you, you have a better record but my team is better!" then the argument becomes "ok, lets axe PVP and go straight point scored" and I think that'll be boring.

Getting rid of divisions isn't about getting rid of variance, it's about not adding more variance for the sole sake of adding variance.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Oh yeah, I'd never claim that divisions don't add an extra element of luck to the process.

I just think that people spend so much time talking about whether teams did or didn't deserve their record but they gloss over the fact that the fundamental H2H structure of most fantasy football leagues is a fairly flawed way to determine which team is 'best', however you want to define it. If you actually want to address what we might define as unfair records, we should just stop using single H2H matchups.

But why are we adding luck to the process when the process already comes with plenty of luck built in?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

No, he hates divisions, he's definitely not saying that. I'm not speaking for everyone but I would say reasons include: people like the matchups that mean a little bit extra (particularly with the schedule set up to have the three divisional matchups the last three weeks); they like some semblance of rivalry with certain teams (even if it's just for a season or two); and in some cases they like the fact that pretty much anyone can get into the playoffs, regardless of experience or skill level.

I'm not sure everyone would phrase the last one that way, but fundamentally I think adding more randomness keeps teams interested that otherwise would not be because the competition is always going to cluster more closely around the mean when you add extra luck, and that gives you more variety in playoff (and in our case relegation) teams from year to year.

A) I'm not convinced this is actually true. In fact, in L2 this year it seems like we got the opposite result, with three weeks to play every game other than one mattered in the playoff race for D2 and D3 but that would've been the case without divisions as well. But none of the games in D1 mattered in the last three weeks but without divisions suddenly every game PEG played would've been vitally important.
B) L1 was so devoid of rivalry last year that we picked some arbitrary thing to create divisions on; this year in L2 they were completely random. I feel no sense of rivalry with any of them, nor anyone else I could be paired up with. We've already got PF making divisions for next year based on arbitrary criteria. Rivalry might've mattered once, it's not exactly important after so many years of relegation.
C) This argument is goofy, getting rid of divisions will make results more correlated to what little skill this game requires and that's a bad thing? Look if you'd decided you wanted players from Florida teams in the draft and picked up Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, and Blake Bortles you'd be in the playoffs and everyone at the time of the draft would've thought you mad. There's more than enough variance already for "good" players to lose and "bad" players to win.

no randomness----fantasy football

choose one.

the biggest voice of the division stuff is the guy who had the fewest points scored on him for the year.

so

welcome to fantasy football. shit happens.

Ooh an ad hom, let me try one. Or maybe we shouldn't listen to the guy who only made the playoffs because he randomly got placed in the bad division. I know you don't care about the facts but I started making these arguments last year when IS (who I don't even like) got minorly screwed by the divisional structure in L1.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Back to back weeks with my QB getting injured during the game, thrilling.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Yates was kind of a shaky play any way though dddp, I'm not sure if he would have gotten many points regardless.

HE PLAYED

YATES

OVER RYAN IN THE PLAYOFFS?

WHAT THE FUCK WERE YOU THINKING DDD?

THIS LEGIT MAKES ME ANGRY THAT I'M NOT IN THE PLAYOFFS

Ryan is like the 28th best QB on the year in points per week and has been even worse than usual lately and has averaged 10.3 points over the last three weeks. Let's not pretend this is Matt Ryan circa 2013, this is 2015 Matt Ryan and he went for a pedestrian 12 points on the week, I was right to look somewhere else and Yates played fine in his one full game of action this year and had a great match-up against an awful Colts D.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Yates was kind of a shaky play any way though dddp, I'm not sure if he would have gotten many points regardless.

HE PLAYED

YATES

OVER RYAN IN THE PLAYOFFS?

WHAT THE FUCK WERE YOU THINKING DDD?

THIS LEGIT MAKES ME ANGRY THAT I'M NOT IN THE PLAYOFFS

Ryan is like the 28th best QB on the year in points per week and has been even worse than usual lately and has averaged 10.3 points over the last three weeks. Let's not pretend this is Matt Ryan circa 2013, this is 2015 Matt Ryan and he went for a pedestrian 12 points on the week, I was right to look somewhere else and Yates played fine in his one full game of action this year and had a great match-up against an awful Colts D.

But Ryan was going against the disgusting Jaguars D.

And scored 12 points. He was the 23rd best QB this week with two to play. You can second guess the Yates decision but not playing Ryan was absolutely 100% correct.