Scumleague FF 2015 (Locke, Yiley, TD37!)

[Locke Lamora]

/in.

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, I really don't mind how the divisions fall. It's fun to play people you've had good matchups with before but I don't care whether my division is full of previous winners or players with no experience. You should have to beat good teams at some point anyway, and there's enough randomness involved that I think it's a fairly pointless exercise trying to determine a 'fair' divisional alignment in advance, unless you know for sure that certain teams are going to check out after Week 3, in which case those teams shouldn't be playing anyway.

[Locke Lamora]

Sounds reasonable. I did autodraft last year, but it was at a very UK-friendly time that I unexpectedly wasn't able to make at the last minute (and thus got 4 QBs) so I won't count myself in the category of 'forced to autodraft'.

[Locke Lamora]

We do 14 weeks, or at least L1 has every year I've been in it. 13 is more common but that's often with byes for divisional winners in week 14, or the ESPN double-week playoff format. You play everyone in your division twice (total of six matchups), three in the first three weeks and the return in weeks 12-14 then everyone outside the division once each in weeks 4-11.

[Locke Lamora]

I'll do it again, unless anyone else is keen to. I'm sure everyone is eagerly awaiting the updates.

[Locke Lamora]

I wouldn't have put him

that

far over, though... two touchdowns and ~90 yards before the half. Way to go Eagles.

KMD invoked the Tally voodoo by saying the whole division would win. It spilled over to zoraster's team too.

[Locke Lamora]

Now that there's no risk of any more stat corrections, it's time for...

L1 Week 1 Results!

Lamora's Lynch Mob 93.00

-86.12 JPPs4FingaDethPunch

Tally Whackers 104.54

-96.14 Rob
Mr Toad's Wild Ride 78.64-

99.50 Heifer Skelter

KMD's Raiders 98.42-

106.60 Mask of Zorotter

Wrath of Romo 89.14

-81.34 Bone's Scum-Boners

Beavers Love Wood 104.16

-101.32 InstaGraham

The battle of the Mannings between AGar and I was a dud, but DeAndre Hopkins and Jamaal Charles led the way to overhaul Antonio Brown's big Thursday, despite my gamble to stream the Tampa Bay D/ST, and AGar's belief in a Monday comeback from Anquan Boldin. As previously mentioned, a voodoo-infused Julio Jones crushed Rob's hopes in a more successful Monday comeback, while Carlos Hyde did an even more extreme version of the same for zoraster over KMD, after zor went into Monday down by 22 with just Hyde to play and ended up the week's highest scorer. Cow had already beaten Flameaxe before Monday, so Matt Bryant just padded the score, with Tyler Eifert's huge game still failing to prevent Flameaxe getting the week's lowest total. T-Bone needed a big night from Jordan Matthews and Adrian Peterson to overhaul Nero, and while Nelson Agholor did nothing, Peterson's disappointing showing ensured there was no drama and a 4-0 week for - surprise, surprise - the Voodoo Division. IS came away with the victory in the closest matchup of Week 1 despite zeroes from both DeSean Jackson and Adam Vinatieri, as he got over 80 points from the combination of Aaron Rodgers, Chris Ivory, Jason Witten and the Seahawks D/ST, while Panzer's contributions were more evenly distributed and he was left short by 29 yards from DeMarco Murray or another Cody Parkey field goal on Monday night. That rounded off an 0-4 week for the mith's Envy division, with the Division of Death going 2-2.

[Locke Lamora]

Let's just do everything by DVOA.

[Locke Lamora]

L1 results from Week 2, before I forget/Week 3 starts:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 78.70

-57.76 Beavers Love Wood

Tally Whackers 98.04

-56.20 Heifer Skelter

Mr Toad's Wild Ride 112.84

-55.60 InstaGraham

Rob 143.16

-91.48 Kmd's Raiders

Mask of Zorotter 75.40

-62.90 Wrath of Romo

JPPs4FingaDethPunch 111.98

-93.06 Bone's Scum-Boners

[Locke Lamora]

L1 Week 3 results:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 115.64

-81.68 Mask of Zorotter

Tally Whackers 114.50

-82.88 Bone's Scum-Boners

Mr Toad's Wild Ride 136.98

-82.22 Wrath of Romo
Rob 92.48-

93.10 InstaGraham

Kmd's Raiders 80.82-

88.50 Heifer Skelter

JPPs4FingaDethPunch 108.76

-101.62 Beavers Love Wood

[Locke Lamora]

L1 Week 4 results, before we start Week 5:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 89.82

-85.42 Rob
Tally Whackers 67.88-

92.86 Beavers Love Wood

Mr Toad's Wild Ride 83.62

-76.68 JPPs4FingaDethPunch
KMD's Raiders 62.84-

70.30 InstaGraham

Mask of Zorotter 68.26-

73.56 Bone's Scum-Boners

Wrath of Romo 104.34

-84.24 Heifer Skelter

[Locke Lamora]

I agree with Rob. ESPN's four-man bench, even with an IR slot, is the one that feels off to me, because you're in real trouble with a couple of guys on bye and someone else questionable. Six feels like the right balance, because you still have to make difficult decisions but that's better than having no choice at all, and the pool of available players is diminished a little without there being no-one available. If you extend the bad luck argument, you can just keep going and going. What if someone has even more guys hurt? Should we have two IR slots? Seven or eight bench spots? What if people drafted injured guys to use later on the season? Do they deserve more bench space, or does that not count because it isn't bad luck? Injuries are unfortunately part of the game, and so is dealing with them.

[Locke Lamora]

I should rephrase, then - the four man bench we have in the auction league!

[Locke Lamora]

I've posted all the L1 scores here but I can PM them to you if that's best.

[Locke Lamora]

I think I waited long enough for all stat corrections, but I'll double-check when the totals are up.

[Locke Lamora]

All good, both standings and points are spot on.

[Locke Lamora]

Pretty sure he didn't say that. I think the point might be that if you're worried about having to work round injured players, don't compound any problems by starting off with one early in the draft.

Also, if you go through the season without having at least one week when you're scrambling because of bye weeks or injuries, your league is too shallow or your league mates are making your life way too easy.

[Locke Lamora]

We're not doing anything with Panzer's players. The odd thing is it isn't inactivity - he's made pickups before each of these weeks, including as recently as last Wednesday. Not really sure why someone would bother making moves but not setting a lineup.

[Locke Lamora]

I don't veto trades unless I think there's collision, so I haven't vetoed this. I think Rob is by far getting the better of it but I think owners should be allowed to run their teams how they want to, providing they're trying to win.

[Locke Lamora]

To save me from making any further comments, here's L1 Week 5:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 98.34

-79.04 Wrath of Romo
Tally Whackers 79.82-

119.62 Mr Toad's Wild Ride

Rob 118.60

-76.34 Mask of Zorotter

KMD's Raiders 104.80

-62.06 Bone's Scum-Boners

Heifer Skelter 96.16

-92.94 Beavers Love Wood

JPPs4FingaDethPunch 88.74

-51.70 InstaGraham

[Locke Lamora]

L1 Week 6:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 124.44

-89.18 Kmd's Raiders
Tally Whackers 76.94-

86.26 Mask of Zorotter

Mr Toad's Wild Ride 115.40

-81.70 Beavers Love Wood

Rob 106.62

-73.94 Bone's Scum-Boners
Wrath of Romo 98.32-

124.18 InstaGraham

Heifer Skelter 97.50-

101.76 JPPs4FingaDethPunch

[Locke Lamora]

I can't watch - why are the Jets winning and holding them to three points so far if the coverage is ridiculous?

[Locke Lamora]

Blair Walsh of the Vikings. Playoffs might be tricker now that Foster is probably done.

[Locke Lamora]

If you think it's over when you're two games back of the wildcard with a higher points total and 7 to play, I don't really know what to tell you. Kmd was three out with three to play last year and still made it. Tally went from a sure-fire playoff team at 6-0 to a shaky 6-5 and I believe didn't clinch until Week 13. Barring a strange sequence of events, I should be 7-0 and I'm not taking the playoffs for granted.

Also, I don't think I'm just speaking for myself when I say that having bye weeks during a regular fantasy season that's this short sounds very dull.

[Locke Lamora]

I rest my case.

[Locke Lamora]

Unless you've assembled a disaster of a team (or an incredibly high variance one), that should be true for the vast majority of weeks you lose.

[Locke Lamora]

Running a bit behind, here are Week 7 & 8 for L1:

Week 7:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 131.60

-80.54 Heifer Skelter
Tally Whackers 86.20-

91.72 InstaGraham

Mr Toad's Wild Ride 77.54

-71.18 Bone's Scum-Boners

Rob 114.74

-106.50 JPPs4FingaDethPunch

KMD's Raiders 111.10

-84.82 Wrath of Romo

Mask of Zorotter 105.58

-102.00 Beavers Love Wood

Week 8:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 96.96

-61.74 InstaGraham

Tally Whackers 112.30

-95.54 Wrath of Romo

Mr Toad's Wild Ride 107.28

-88.82 Mask of Zorotter

Rob 121.94

-47.08 Beavers Love Wood
KMD's Raiders 97.44-

122.40 JPPs4FingaDethPunch

Heifer Skelter 87.38

-81.98 Bone's Scum-Boners

[Locke Lamora]

Been playing around with running some simulations for playoff (and relegation) odds and I thought I'd post them here for fun. I ran 5000 simulations of the remaining schedule based on the performance of every team so far, and here's what I came up with:

Playoff Odds:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 98.92%
Mr Toad's Wild Ride 90.12%
Rob 78.52%
Tally Whackers 46.22%
JPPs4FingaDethPunch 32.20%
Mask of Zorotter 31.62%
Heifer Skelter 20.64%
Wrath of Romo 1.48%
InstaGraham 0.04%

Tally has the edge in the three-way tie in the Voodoo division, with comfortably the best scoring team in the division so far and two divisional wins in the bag. Myself and Flameaxe are both close to securing a spot, while Rob is in good shape with the highest-scoring team in the league and current possession of the wild card spot, although AGar is still in with a good shot of both the WC or the division. In two simulations, Panzer's much-maligned squad actually snuck in too, once with a division win, and once through the wild card.

Relegation Odds:

Bone's Scum-Boners 99.70%
Beavers Love Wood 89.66%
Wrath of Romo 76.66%
KMD's Raiders 68.48%
InstaGraham 29.78%
Mask of Zorotter 16.48%
Heifer Skelter 14.94%
Tally Whackers 4.30%

T-Bone is almost as close to being locked in to relegation as possible, with just 15 seasons out of the 5000 in which he isn't relegated. IS and his bad luck also look to be in serious trouble, while all four teams in the Voodoo division still have a non-zero chance of going down.

[Locke Lamora]

It would be kind of a disappointing way to lose my streak. Otherwise I'd totally be on board.

Before we get into Week 10, here's L1 Week 9:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 88.94

-65.16 Tally Whackers

Mr Toad's Wild Ride 134.84

-89.70 Rob
KMD's Raiders 79.02-

131.16 Beavers Love Wood

Mask of Zorotter 84.78-

90.98 Heifer Skelter

Wrath of Romo 100.86

-90.82 JPPs4FingaDethPunch

Bone's Scum-Boners 113.96

-76.48 InstaGraham

Updated odds!

Playoff

Lamora's Lynch Mob 99.94%
Mr Toad's Wild Ride 99.36%
Rob 77.32%
Heifer Skelter 42.64%
Tally Whackers 31.98%
JPPs4FingaDethPunch 23.10%
Mask of Zorotter 19.58%
Wrath of Romo 5.92%
InstaGraham 0.04%

Relegation

Bone's Scum 98.98%
KMD's Raiders 87.44%
InstaGraham 61.54%
Wrath of Romo 54.44%
Beavers Love Wood 45.66%
Mask of Zorotter 29.42%
Tally Whackers 16.12%
Heifer Skelter 6.30%
JPPs4FingaDethPunch 0.06%
Rob 0.04%

[Locke Lamora]

Rob - as long as you're not mathematically eliminated, there's always a chance, and as Agar says, both of you could lose out and be relegated. 0.04% is so small that for all practical purposes you can say you won't go down, but it's possible. If anything, it's probably slightly too low, as all the spreadsheet knows is the results so far (which I'm thinking about adding to but then it does get more complicated), and so the highest scoring teams fare better than they would by Yahoo's projections.

[Locke Lamora]

Watch Hopkins put up a 30 point week and ruin my upset bid.

In DeAndre we trust.

[Locke Lamora]

L1 Week 10:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 65.90-

83.04 Bone's Scum-Boners

Tally Whackers 61.58-

102.24 JPPs4FingaDethPunch

Mr Toad's Wild Ride 85.42-

85.56 Kmd's Raiders

Rob 128.32

-62.86 Heifer Skelter
Mask of Zorotter 60.28-

82.64 InstaGraham

Wrath of Romo 85.48-

108.22 Beavers Love Wood

I should have a chance to run the odds again tomorrow, to see how T-Bone's great escape is going.

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, Week 11 was pretty much as bad an outcome as possible for T-Bone. No win, no points, and wins for all of the four win teams that he might have been able to overtake. I'm guessing the odds are going to come out at virtually 100%.

Voodoo and wild card are going to be pretty exciting, as are the other relegation spots.

[Locke Lamora]

If West is out, stick with Ware. I might actually prefer Draughn over Bradshaw after that - he's the only back getting work in San Francisco, which doesn't mean much but it's probably more reliable than Bradshaw's workload. None of the receivers are exciting to me, I think I'd start all three of those RBs over them.

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, if Gore is out then Bradshaw is clearly a start too. All the information from the Niners suggested he wasn't going to miss a week, so I assumed Bradshaw would get less work.

[Locke Lamora]

L1 update before any more Thanksgiving games get completed:

Week 11:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 101.48

-74.72 Mr Toad's Wild Ride

Tally Whackers 91.00

-80.38 Kmd's Raiders
Rob 64.02-

87.20 Wrath of Romo

Mask of Zorotter 100.24

-98.08 JPPs4FingaDethPunch

Heifer Skelter 93.00

-43.80 InstaGraham
Bone's Scum-Boners 38.46-

87.28 Beavers Love Wood

[Locke Lamora]

Ran the odds again:

Playoff (I did come out at 100%, just to confirm that it works):
Mr Toad's Wild Ride 97.22%
Rob 69.76%
Heifer Skelter 42.02%
JPPs4FingaDethPunch 32.42%
Tally Whackers 29.96%
Mask of Zorotter 15.42%
Wrath of Romo 12.72%
Beavers Love Wood 0.42%
InstaGraham 0.06%

Relegation:
Bone's Scum 99.88%
KMD's Raiders 96.48%
InstaGraham 79.26%
Wrath of Romo 44.28%
Mask of Zorotter 36.82%
Tally Whackers 19.82%
Beavers Love Wood 16.34%
Heifer Skelter 7.08%
Rob 0.04%

Sadly, this was before AGar started taking T-Bone to town, so that 0.12% chance is probably no longer accurate.

[Locke Lamora]

I agree, although I don't think it will matter - his points for are terrible and he's already well on his way to another loss. Maybe we should have a three strikes type policy specified in the future.

And yes, you can definitely win the division. Panzer isn't helping, but it's far from impossible.

[Locke Lamora]

Well, I don't think L3 should have to take an inactive player either. If someone shows this lack of interest repeatedly, then I think it's fair to just say they're not playing next year.

[Locke Lamora]

Nero's win keeps T-Bone alive mathematically, but he needs to start scoring 150 points a week to have any chance. We could actually have four 6-7 teams in the Voodoo division after Week 13, with one in the playoffs and one in the last relegation spot.

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, I like it in this case especially, it's a lot of fun to have that many teams in both playoff and relegation races. The difference without divisions is that both Rob and AGar would be in the playoff spots right now, instead of just one. There's a pretty good chance that at least one 6-8 team gets relegated this year, and maybe two.

[Locke Lamora]

If you win both games, you'll almost certainly win the division. No team would be better than 7-7, you'd beat Cow in a division tiebreaker and you have a decent points advantage over zoraster. The only way it wouldn't happen is if Tally beats zoraster by more than you beat Tally, plus five.

[Locke Lamora]

Unfortunately it doesn't (assuming I haven't misread the table). After the division lead is settled, all tiebreakers go to total points first (and this is really all that matters with decimal scoring). That means you can beat Cow this week, he could lose next week, and you can still finish behind him at 6-8 if he covers the winning margin in your matchup plus three. Not only that, but it's possible for both Kmd and IS to finish 6-8, and they would beat any 6-8 team in your division unless there are some really weird scoring games, which would likely leave two teams in Voodoo going down. Panzer can technically escape too ahead of you even if you win this week, although given the attention paid to his lineup, that seems less likely.

[Locke Lamora]

Oh, that makes more sense. I play in more leagues that do go to Week 14 regular season now than not, so I forget 13 is more common.

[Locke Lamora]

You can do it T-Bone! Just looking for 160 points this week and at least 3 of the 5-7 teams to lose. Easy.

[Locke Lamora]

I'll save the actual score updates for Thursday as usual, but here are the L1 updated playoff odds based on the provisional scores:

Playoff:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 100.00%
Mr Toad's Wild Ride 100.00%
JPPs4FingaDethPunch 68.76%
Tally Whackers 49.08%
Rob 30.98%
Wrath of Romo 28.78%
Heifer Skelter 17.18%
Mask of Zorotter 5.22%

Myself (11-1) and Flameaxe (9-3) have obviously clinched, and I just need one win or one Flameaxe loss for the 1 seed. AGar (7-5) can still win the division but needs to win out and hope for a T-Bone victory over Flameaxe, which would give him the division on a tiebreaker. He also needs to win to hold off Rob (6-6) for the wild card, who has the highest point total, 65 more than AGar, so would likely be the wild card in the event of a tie. Tally (6-6) holds the best divisional record and therefore currently possesses the fourth playoff spot over Cow, whose 1-3 divisional record and lowest points total in the Voodoo division actually means that the simulation thinks Nero (5-7) has a better shot of making the playoffs than Cow. Zoraster (5-7) also has a shot, but suffers from barely having more points than Cow, so his best bet is a Cow victory over Nero and two Tally losses, allowing him to take the division on the tiebreaker over Cow.

Relegation:

Bone's Scum-Boners 100.00%
InstaGraham 87.36%
KMD's Raiders 73.64%
Mask of Zorotter 48.84%
Beavers Love Wood 39.64%
Wrath of Romo 23.06%
Heifer Skelter 22.02%
Tally Whackers 5.40%
Rob 0.04%

Although it's mathematically possible for T-Bone (3-8) to not get relegated, it didn't happen once in 5000 simulations, as he not only needs to win out with huge scores but also has to rely on almost all of the 5-7 teams to keep losing, and the sim just accounts for teams being exactly as good as they've been so far. Panzer (5-7) has a higher relegation chance than Kmd (4-8) because while the sim doesn't know he keeps not setting his lineup, it does know that his points total is terrible and is unlikely to win either game or any tiebreakers. Kmd will face IS (5-7) in a crunch Week 14 matchup, which may be a loser gets relegated situation, as they both have significant points advantages over the Voodoo and mith relegation candidates. This also demonstrates the tight race in Voodoo, with even division leader Tally having more than a 5% chance of going down, while the sim continues to insist that Rob can get relegated, which happened twice in the 5000, despite his massive points total.

[Locke Lamora]

Also Lamora what site are you using for the league predictions?

I like divisions as entities to determine who plays who when, but not to determine who makes playoffs.

I made a spreadsheet with the results so far and the league schedule, and wrote a macro to simulate who wins the remaining games and calculate the resulting standings 5000 times.

[Locke Lamora]

The elegant solution to all of these issues (if you think they're issues) is to go to 14 teams, drop back to a 13 week regular season with no divisions where everyone plays each team once, and have six making the playoffs with the format zoraster outlines.

[Locke Lamora]

edit nm. i like LL's suggestion, but 14 teams is hard to do a lot on the waiver wire.

Yeah, I suspect complaints about the structure would be replaced by complaints about the scarcity of talent.

[Locke Lamora]

Aside from the neater structure of the schedule (and I know we've debated the benefits of that before too so I don't want to start that again), I like it because I think the schedule symmetry creates more late season showdowns between teams that are both competing for the same spot (in the Voodoo division this is actually both matchups this week, and potentially next week too), and the divisional record tiebreaker makes those games more important than the out-of-division games. With six games against the people in your division, it's also like a mini-league that if you win, you're most likely in the playoffs. I won't argue that it's fairer but it's more entertaining to me. Fundamentally, we do single head-to-head matchups because it's fun, not because it's fair, so the idea that it's fun to play the same group of people twice for a division title and playoff spot seems pretty in keeping with that. I'll agree that 'because the NFL does it' is not a good argument for it in the sense that almost none of the reasons that it's practical in the NFL actually exist in fantasy - but again, if someone finds it fun that NFL teams can make it into the playoffs with a losing record, they'll probably think the same in fantasy.

I'll also agree that we don't have the optimal setup to make the best argument for divisions: as we use relegation, divisions are somewhat less relevant because there are very few teams that fall into the category of not having anything to play for with two games left, and we do lose some of the rivalry aspect too because of that.

[Locke Lamora]

It's all relative. You have to adjust your points expectation downwards but everyone's on the same playing field. At some point you actually get to the stage where you hardly have a choice at all, but that's well beyond 14 team league level.

[Locke Lamora]

The last odds I posted were up to date, so not quite. There is a scenario in which six teams get 7 wins, you lose both remaining and go down with T-Bone, Kmd and one of Nero or Zoraster. That happened twice in 5000 though, so almost assured not to.

[Locke Lamora]

I've never seen a 1RB league. It's always been the third WR that gets dropped for the Flex (or they keep both, like the Auction league setup).

I think there's something to be said for maintaining the current roster spots because there's actually quite a lot of history now, especially for L1, based on this setup. I probably appreciate this more than most but I personally quite like looking at the historical data and records, and once you start messing with lineup spots and scoring, they don't mean anything any more.

[Locke Lamora]

Nine?! That's insane.

Just realised I never posted the:

League 1 results and standings through week 12:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 112.44-83.78 Beavers Love Wood
Tally Whackers 85.70-66.52 Heifer Skelter
Mr Toad's Wild Ride 114.38-60.50 InstaGraham
Rob 104.30-128.00 Kmd's Raiders
Mask of Zorotter 72.02-78.72 Wrath of Romo
JPPs4FingaDethPunch 106.54-76.54 Bone's Scum-Boners

Voodoo	Record	Division	Points
Tally Whackers	6-6-0	3-1-0	1043.66
Heifer Skelter	6-6-0	1-3-0	1003.38
Wrath of Romo	5-7-0	2-2-0	1048.58
Mask of Zorotter	5-7-0	2-2-0	1006.26
Division of Death	Record	Division	Points
Lamora's Lynch Mob	11-1-0	4-0-0	1197.26
Rob	6-6-0	2-2-0	1265.44
Beavers Love Wood	5-7-0	1-3-0	1090.56
KMD's Raiders	4-8-0	1-3-0	1109.04
mith's Envy	Record	Division	Points
Mr Toad's Wild Ride	9-3-0	4-0-0	1241.28
JPPs4FingaDethPunch	7-5-0	3-1-0	1200.62
InstaGraham	5-7-0	0-4-0	913.08
Bone's Scum	3-9-0	3-1-0	932

[Locke Lamora]

Been quite the close week. Two matchups with less than a point in it and a couple more that could still be very close.

I assume you set your lineup this week primarily to annoy AGar, Panzer?

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, after last week, 7 wins was always safety. Two teams were never going to make it and because you face each other, at least two teams in your division can't get to 7, so we were guaranteed to have four at 6 wins or worse no matter what happened.

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, after last week, 7 wins was always safety. Two teams were never going to make it and because you face each other, at least two teams in your division can't get to 7, so we were guaranteed to have four at 6 wins or worse no matter what happened.

Guess I never did the math before this week.

It's possible I may have done too much.

[Locke Lamora]

So clearly what we should do is have a side league next year in which everyone drafts one aspect of the setup eg. DDD drafts first, he picks no divisions; Rob picks 2QB league; D3f picks nine-man bench; I pick anyone complaining about the format gets an automatic loss (ok, so it would have to be restricted to actual Yahoo settings, but you get the idea). Obviously someone can't draft something that contradicts a rule already drafted, so if someone had picked 2QB, you can't then change it to 1QB with a later pick. Then people pick their draft slot, in reverse order, to balance out the rule drafting. I'd totally play in that.

[Locke Lamora]

It's just one round, and the choices are pretty restricted in a lot of cases (and we could restrict them in those that might render it unplayable if they weren't). It's not like it's all just enabling or disabling a rule or position. There's easily enough to do one round's worth, with positions, playoff rules, scoring, etc. I'm sure it would almost certainly be silly in some regard, but I think it would be pretty simple to do and a fun change.

[Locke Lamora]

To be clear, I am talking about an entirely separate side league that has nothing to do with our current setup. The people who didn't like the idea would just not be playing. Having said that, Kublai's idea is the best.

Assuming no stat corrections, L1 playoffs are pretty simple for the most part. Myself and Flameaxe are in as 1 and 2 seeds. Tally and Rob will be in as the Voodoo division winner and wild card respectively if they win. If they don't, Cow and AGar need a win to overtake them. The other possible scenario is that both Tally and Cow get in, which happens if they win and AGar and Rob lose, handing the wild card to Cow. It's technically possible for AGar to overtake Rob on points scored, but he needs 60.55 to do it, which is a bit much for a single week.

Relegation is a five-way battle, with only T-Bone guaranteed to go down. Kmd is in the most trouble at 4-9, but he also has the best points total of the bottom six and can guarantee that he finishes above 5-8 IS by beating him this week. He then needs help from Tally and Cow, who have to beat zoraster and Nero (both 5-8) respectively for Kmd to finish above them. Zoraster also needs at least two of Nero, IS and Panzer (6-7) to lose, as he has a worse points total than everyone but Panzer and already-relegated T-Bone. A loss for him means certain relegation. IS is just under 20 points ahead of Nero, so it's possible the lowest-scoring of those two will get relegated this week even if they both win. Assuming he doesn't get relegated automatically, Panzer is guaranteed to stay up with a win but could be in trouble with a loss, on account of his terrible points total from all that failing to set his lineup. If he does lose, two of those three 5-8 teams still have to win to relegate him.

[Locke Lamora]

Kinda screwed you as well. If Panzer lost to AGar then you'd only have to rely on one person to lose this week.

[Locke Lamora]

well, it wasn't

actually

an attempt to spoil the league. I just happened to be talking to him this past week.

Haha yeah, I figured. Just thought it was funny you actually managed to do both.

Panzer: not if Nero and zoraster both win and you lose. Then you, IS, KMD and T-Bone get relegated.

T-Bone: you get to spoil Panzer's season. We believe in you!

[Locke Lamora]

Presumably this also depends on if mith recovers from this season. Maybe the Cowboys somehow getting out of that disaster of a division to make the playoffs will do it.

[Locke Lamora]

The draft grades, and the projected records in particular, are an exercise in futility. Even if they could accurately predict a team's points total - which they can't - it would still be a shot in the dark. There's so much fluctuation in player value, and so much value that isn't even drafted, sticking a rating or a projected record on a team before any games have been played is really just for fun. I had to autodraft in L1 so Yahoo had to rate me based on my no TE, no kicker, no DST approach, which really confused the automated comment generator (it just decided not to acknowledge that at all) and I was projected for 1-13. If they actually wanted to make an accurate system, they should probably include a projected range (or playoff odds) and try to account for available replacement level talent in some way.

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, I forced every player (barring Gronk and maybe another high end TE or two) and DST for those slots to the do not draft list. I also forced every QB after the top ten or so to it. If you don't, Yahoo will automatically fill your starting lineup slots before your bench, so you will definitely waste a mid-round pick by reaching for kickers and DSTs, and quite probably a TE, unless you end up in a slot where you can take one of the few who are worth it in the early rounds. Yahoo also gets to a point where it just starts ignoring your rankings and reverts to its own, so say I ranked Tannehill at 120 but the Yahoo default was 80th, sometimes the autopick just takes him over ten or fifteen players you have ranked ahead of him, I guess because there's a limit to how far off their own rankings the autopick will actually go. The only way to stop it is to use the do not draft list.

The way I did it (and versions of this are pretty common amongst anyone who is used to autodrafting, I think) means you get to use those mid-round picks on RBs and WRs for your bench, and then you can just swap the last three picks, who are late round flyers anyway, for your kicker, TE and DST. I always stream DSTs unless one of my streamers emerges as an elite option, kickers are pretty random, and tight ends are a lottery once you get into the mid rounds anyway, so you might as well wait and pick up whoever is left.

As for who I drafted that actually made my team good, Hopkins, Marshall and Martin (who I took in the seventh, which is exactly when the autodraft would have definitely screwed me with a reach as my QB, RB and WR slots were full) are probably the best value for money. I picked first and had Charles until he got hurt, so that helped in the early weeks. I managed to pick up Palmer early on when Peyton looked awful so that has helped a lot too.

[Locke Lamora]

Divisional record only counts as the first tiebreaker for the division. For everything else, it's total points.

I'll post the L1 scores when I get in as I already have them on my spreadsheet.

[Locke Lamora]

The only relevant stat correction was an extra yard for Jason Witten, which was a little less than IS needed, so nothing changes results-wise in L1, which were as follows:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 117.04

-116.28 Kmd's Raiders

Tally Whackers 114.36

-108.20 Wrath of Romo

Mr Toad's Wild Ride 131.80

-92.96 Bone's Scum-Boners

Rob 90.80

-84.72 Beavers Love Wood
Mask of Zorotter 92.24-

103.10 Heifer Skelter

JPPs4FingaDethPunch 95.08-

95.22 InstaGraham

Week 14 Matchups:

Voodoo:
Tally Whackers vs Mask of Zorotter
Very simple if Tally wins: Tally wins the division, zoraster gets relegated. If zoraster wins, Tally needs to hope that Cow loses, while zoraster is hoping for two of Cow, KMD and T-Bone to win.

Wrath of Romo vs Heifer Skelter
A Cow win and a Tally loss gives Cow the division. If Tally wins, Cow needs Rob and AGar to both lose to get the WC. Nero will almost certainly stay ahead of zoraster unless he loses and zoraster wins. A Nero win will keep him up even if IS wins if he outscores IS by 19.51, or if IS loses, or if Panzer loses. If he loses, he gets relegated unless he covers that same points margin and IS also loses.

Death:

Lamora's Lynch Mob vs Rob
If Rob wins, he's practically guaranteed the wild card, unless AGar also wins and overturns that 60.54 points margin. A loss means he has to rely on both Cow or Tally and AGar losing. I have nothing to gain other than another win.

KMD's Raiders vs Beavers Love Wood
KMD has to win and get help from Tally and Cow winning to stay up. IS could stay up even if he loses, but only if Nero and zoraster also lose. A win gives IS a pretty good chance of staying up, as Nero has to then cover that 19.50 spread and Panzer also has to win to prevent it.

mith:

Mr Toad's Wild Ride vs JPPs4FingaDethPunch
AGar has to win and hope that Rob loses for a realistic chance of getting the wild card. Flameaxe also has nothing to gain other than another win.

Bone's Scum-Boners vs InstaGraham
T-Bone is finished and will be last in the league no matter what happens. He can affect whether Panzer gets relegated by beating him. If Panzer wins, he definitely stays up, but IS, Nero and zoraster will all pass him if he loses and they win.

Odds for the final week (excluding those whose fate is already decided):

Playoff:
Tally Whackers 83.80%
Rob 55.18%
JPPs4FingaDethPunch 42.02%
Heifer Skelter 19.00%

Relegation:
KMD's Raiders 89.62%
Mask of Zorotter 88.20%
Wrath of Romo 72.76%
Beavers Love Wood 26.30%
InstaGraham 23.12%

[Locke Lamora]

You may have just been snarky, but I wasn't, and I don't think the others were either. If anyone repeatedly fails to set their lineup, and I'm talking leaving bye week and long-term injured players in rather than a couple of game time decisions, I think it's entirely reasonable to talk about whether they should be in the league, especially when we have two other leagues of people who could take that spot. Mith sets the leagues up and Tally is the commissioner, so it's not up to us, but it's a fair question.

[Locke Lamora]

Thought the odds looked a bit weird in some cases so I checked my formulas and a couple of teams didn't have their points calculating correctly for this week. They should be as follows:

Playoff:
Tally Whackers 82.24%
Rob 77.74%
Heifer Skelter 24.32%
JPPs4FingaDethPunch 15.70%

Relegation:
KMD's Raiders 86.22%
Mask of Zorotter 78.94%
Beavers Love Wood 56.46%
Wrath of Romo 54.38%
InstaGraham 24.00%

[Locke Lamora]

This is all subjective. People can't even agree on the best way to measure how good teams are - we've seen people argue for both total points and EPE pretty recently. What about if your team had a high points total because it was great for the first 7 weeks and then mediocre for 7 but you sneaked into the playoffs ahead of a team that started badly to get way behind in total points then put up the highest score in the league for the last four? The other team is probably going to be much better in the playoffs but any of our regular suggestions would have your team in the playoffs.

I said this last year but I'll say it again - if you want the head to head matchups to mean something, you have to accept the random fluctuations and luck that comes with that.

[Locke Lamora]

Oh yeah, I'd never claim that divisions don't add an extra element of luck to the process. I just think that people spend so much time talking about whether teams did or didn't deserve their record but they gloss over the fact that the fundamental H2H structure of most fantasy football leagues is a fairly flawed way to determine which team is 'best', however you want to define it. If you actually want to address what we might define as unfair records, we should just stop using single H2H matchups.

As for doing divisions differently, I'd rather do something like what we did in baseball this year and have the division winners draft their division the next year than use draft grades. That at least offers the chance for some balance and rivalry rather than being completely random.

[Locke Lamora]

No, he hates divisions, he's definitely not saying that. I'm not speaking for everyone but I would say reasons include: people like the matchups that mean a little bit extra (particularly with the schedule set up to have the three divisional matchups the last three weeks); they like some semblance of rivalry with certain teams (even if it's just for a season or two); and in some cases they like the fact that pretty much anyone can get into the playoffs, regardless of experience or skill level.

I'm not sure everyone would phrase the last one that way, but fundamentally I think adding more randomness keeps teams interested that otherwise would not be because the competition is always going to cluster more closely around the mean when you add extra luck, and that gives you more variety in playoff (and in our case relegation) teams from year to year.

[Locke Lamora]

The divisional matchups do mean more just because they count towards the tiebreaker. It might only be a little bit more overall because that doesn't come into play very often, but a divisional win helps your playoff chances more than a non divisional one. As for whether scheduling the last three games in-division makes for more or fewer late-season decisive matchups, I don't know, and anecdotal evidence is irrelevant when trying to prove or disprove it. Maybe I'll run a bunch of simulations to find out but what people believe about it won't be based on actual statistical evidence.

I'm not arguing that any of these reasons are good or that they make the league better for players who are actually 'good'. You just asked why we do it, and I made some suggestions for why people like it this way, in spite of the fact that it introduces more luck into the process. It is goofy from the perspective of making the results favour the better teams, but as we've seen, the teams who sneak into the playoffs as a result of the divisional structure are happy about it, and the teams who get an easier matchup in the playoffs as a result probably aren't bothered either.

[Locke Lamora]

I'll happily be in a division with you guys, sounds good.

[Locke Lamora]

I really don't mind being in a division with teams that have done well in previous seasons. We may have been three of the five best teams this year but there's no guarantee it'll be the case going forward. Let's just have fun with it. We'll take Flameaxe too, as he seems keen on the idea.

Final Week 14 scores in L1:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 127.10

-85.98 Rob
Tally Whackers 83.88-

130.00 Mask of Zorotter

Mr. Toad's Wild Ride 92.02-

94.98 JPPs4FingaDethPunch

Kmd's Raiders 111.24

-71.92 Beavers Love Wood
Wrath of Romo 52.46-

71.08 Heifer Skelter

Bone's Scum-Boners 94.30

-73.72 InstaGraham

Zoraster saved himself from regulation and cost Tally a playoff spot in the process by putting up the highest score of the week, while Cow somehow made it in despite the second-lowest score of the week, as Andy Dalton's early departure killed most of Nero's hopes of avoiding relegation pretty quickly on Sunday. AGar claimed the wild card with a spectacular comeback victory over Flameaxe on Monday night, as the Eli Manning Show (heavily featuring Odell Beckham) came to Miami to deny Rob the playoff spot at the very last moment. Kmd's hopes of avoiding relegation were dashed by zoraster's victory, but he did drag IS down with him. Panzer escaped despite losing to T-Bone thanks to Kmd and Cow's victories.

Playoff matchups:
Lamora's Lynch Mob (1) vs Heifer Skelter (4)
Mr Toad's Wild Ride (2) vs JPPs4FingaDethPunch (3)

Consolation matchups:
Rob (5) vs InstaGraham (8)
Tally Whackers (6) vs Mask of Zorotter (7)

I'll post some more stuff later on standings, stats, EPE etc. so we can construct a series of entirely hypothetical leagues.

[Locke Lamora]

Looking forward to it, AGar. Would be nice to have another 40 point game from someone.

[Locke Lamora]

Championship!

I thought I might lose in the weirdest way after Hightower went nuts but Eli came through for me by being terrible without Beckham. Good matchup AGar, I look forward to our division of death next year. Thanks for another fun season everyone!

[Locke Lamora]

L1 final scores for mith:

Championship:

Lamora's Lynch Mob 108.50

- 100.36 JPPs4FingaDethPunch

3rd place:

Mr. Toad's Wild Ride 150.74

- 95.08 Heifer Skelter

5th place:

Rob 111.70

- 82.28 Mask of Zorotter

7th place:

Tally Whackers 90.86

- 66.64 InstaGraham