When I talk about scheduling luck, I'm talking about expected performance vs. a random schedule. Total points against doesn't tell the whole story - what really matters is how those points are distributed throughout the season.
He could have scored more points by starting Doug Baldwin, sure. Other teams could have made similar adjustments with 20/20 hindsight. But based on the points he
did
score, and based on the points the rest of the league scored each week, he was unlucky to have only gone 9-5. (The glaring example of bad luck was week 2, when he had the second highest total for the week and lost by 0.04 points to you.) On the flip side, he was also unlucky for Yiley to have gone 10-4, and for 4 of his losses to have been against division opponents.
Explanation of stats:
EPE is the "Everyone Plays Everyone" record. Rather than matching up with a single team each week, your score is compared to every other team's, so you can score anywhere from 0 to 11 wins for a week. This is equivalent to answering the question "what would my record have been, on average, against a random schedule?" - just divide the numbers by 11 to get your expected record.
WDST is a measurement of expected wins based on the distribution of scores, rather than a discrete comparison. For example, based on the week 2 scores, a score of 111.56 is around the 98th percentile - Wraith was expected to win that week about 98% of the time. Unfortunately, that week fell in the 2% for him, and he lost. The WDST record is the sum of these probabilities, multiplied by 11 to make it comparable to the EPE. In some sense it's a better stat than EPE; EPE normalizes for schedules based on the scores that were actually put up, but WDST normalizes for schedules
and
the distribution of those scores. That 111.56 still counts as a 10-1 record in EPE because of PokerFace's 111.60, but WDST looks at the distribution as a whole (that is, how likely was it for that 111.60 to be there ruining Wraith's day?), and credits Wraith with about a 10.7-0.3, almost the same as PokerFace. EPE is easier to explain, though.