Tarot uPick II - GAME OVER

[Kamigami]

Cop result was influential but not 100% of it. He is off the table because he's lower likelihood scum than ns, and we lack position to drive a lynch on him anyway, largely because of OT's nonsense.

The relevance of the cop result is that he inno'd you when it would be more in keeping with a scum win-con to either guilty you or inno fluff. It's also relevant that his Day 9 play looks like he has something, and I don't think he's a great actor.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

What makes you think he is not a good actor?? :/

[Kamigami]

What makes you think he is not a good actor?? :/

Because I thought he was extremely scummy for most of the early game, and would have lynched him over pisskop without the rolecop result. If he's scum, he would have had to suddenly become good within the past few Days.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

Why was he higher likelihood than ns Day 8?

That's all from me.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

Ok.

[fferyllt]

VC 10.3

The lip of the well seems impossibly far away.

Fluff Central

(1): Kamigami

Not Voting

(3): Perpetual Nonsense, Fluff Central, Aj The Epic

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline: December 30, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-12-30 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

[Kamigami]

I would actually not be unhappy at this point if we go to night and fluff goes for the no kill.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

VOTE: kamigami

notscience you should vote on your actual hydra

[Aj The Epic]

I think Bins has been gone for a while.

[Oil Tycoons]

What are your thoughts right now, AJ?

[Oil Tycoons]

I find it interesting that Kamigami claims credit for being a major driver of the BRantz lynch; reread is showing that to not be the case. Kami made an initial vote on Brantz in this post then backed off when other people started reading Brantz's wall as town and supported a Prohawk wagon. Flexes back to Brantz in this post, backs off pretty quickly yet again. Lynch vote came here when counterwagons had died down and it had become much more clear that Brantz was getting lynched that day.

Post-Brantz lynch response is this:

I think Brantz pushing Wisdom/KN at the same time suggests that both Wis and KN are town.

I want to lynch in Brantz's null/void reads today. (his 1st read list, not the second)

...which is a decent ping against the slot, in my opinion.

I believe Luna is town by her claim, and I'm willing to gamble that this is Ceph's town game. (I'd expect more mastin if they drew scum I think) I have Nacho as nullish town for now, with the understanding that Nacho_scum would need to bus his buddies at some point in midgame if only due to BoP, but I'm not sure how to approach Tammy.

This read on WoF is not a read I'd expect if the hydra had an innocent on them.

Shoodly doo doo doooooo.

I see we need more peeps from dat Wisdom wagon. Move it! You too Kami.

Also, Pisskop, AJ, wanna go ahead and claim now to save me the trouble of making a wagon to put you at L-1?

I don't think ffery would use a scum-town lover pair.

I don't think wisdom and far are lying about being lovers.

Your thoughts?

Vote: Idiocy

Drive on the Idiocy wagon was prompted by us: Kami also tried to guide us off that by saying that they thought a scum-lover pair was unlikely (thus appealing to our incorrect townread on Wisdom to push us off lynching Idiocy).

VOTE: pisskop

Drive here was vote #5, when the pisskop wagon had again already built pretty decent momentum (and wasn't a strange place to bus, considering Wisdom was also pushing through pisskop decently hard).

yeah, I ignored most of their posts too, but do you think Pie vs Wisdom thing was faked?

Because that's a level of scum theatre I have not witnessed in a long time.

Playing up the pie-Wisdom interactions is an additional ping.

Vote: Bacde

First vote on Bacde wagon, drove this one harder than previous scum lynches.

[Oil Tycoons]

I find it interesting that Kamigami claims credit for being a major driver of the BRantz lynch; reread is showing that to not be the case. Kami made an initial vote on Brantz in this post then backed off when other people started reading Brantz's wall as town and supported a Prohawk wagon. Flexes back to Brantz in this post, backs off pretty quickly yet again. Lynch vote came here when counterwagons had died down and it had become much more clear that Brantz was getting lynched that day.

Post-Brantz lynch response is this:

I think Brantz pushing Wisdom/KN at the same time suggests that both Wis and KN are town.

I want to lynch in Brantz's null/void reads today. (his 1st read list, not the second)

...which is a decent ping against the slot, in my opinion.

I believe Luna is town by her claim, and I'm willing to gamble that this is Ceph's town game. (I'd expect more mastin if they drew scum I think) I have Nacho as nullish town for now, with the understanding that Nacho_scum would need to bus his buddies at some point in midgame if only due to BoP, but I'm not sure how to approach Tammy.

This read on WoF is not a read I'd expect if the hydra had an innocent on them.

Shoodly doo doo doooooo.

I see we need more peeps from dat Wisdom wagon. Move it! You too Kami.

Also, Pisskop, AJ, wanna go ahead and claim now to save me the trouble of making a wagon to put you at L-1?

I don't think ffery would use a scum-town lover pair.

I don't think wisdom and far are lying about being lovers.

Your thoughts?

Vote: Idiocy

Drive on the Idiocy wagon was prompted by us: Kami also tried to guide us off that by saying that they thought a scum-lover pair was unlikely (thus appealing to our incorrect townread on Wisdom to push us off lynching Idiocy).

VOTE: pisskop

Drive here was vote #5, when the pisskop wagon had again already built pretty decent momentum (and wasn't a strange place to bus, considering Wisdom was also pushing through pisskop decently hard).

yeah, I ignored most of their posts too, but do you think Pie vs Wisdom thing was faked?

Because that's a level of scum theatre I have not witnessed in a long time.

Playing up the pie-Wisdom interactions is an additional ping.

Vote: Bacde

First vote on Bacde wagon, drove this one harder than previous scum lynches.

[Oil Tycoons]

This is also not meant as a formal case, FWIW.

I wanted to read through again to doublecheck that I still feel notscience is town (I do), I wanted to see if Kamigami's claim of having "bussed the hell out of their scumteam" was a good one (it's not), and I wanted to see if Kami got more aggressive in pushing through town suspects as opposed to the scum lynches earlier in the game (true).

I don't think the innocent claim on WoF was a huge action from scum!Kamigami: WoF was going to be a difficult lynch anyways, clearing them didn't give them a significant hit to their lynch pool.

The miller result on AJ would have been more significant if they didn't use it as leverage in the way that they did; as soon as they got the result, they were already claiming that they wouldn't claim miller result on AJ as scum which is motive for the play right there.

My final answer is still a Kamigami lynch.

[Kamigami]

The good news is that it's pretty probable that we get to No Lynch, and ns can't afford to kill PN.

So you don't get to lose us the game!

[Oil Tycoons]

The weight of the game in MyLo doesn't lie in the hands of the treestump, sorry.

[Kamigami]

You're doing your best.

[Oil Tycoons]

You aren't.

[Kamigami]

If it makes you feel better, I had enough respect for you that I've asked over the course of several days enough questions to determine that it's impossible that you changed alignment, that you gained a win condition with the tincture thing, and that there's no possibility of a judas-like role.

[Oil Tycoons]

If it makes you feel better, I had enough respect for you that I've asked over the course of several days enough questions to determine that it's impossible that you changed alignment, that you gained a win condition with the tincture thing, and that there's no possibility of a judas-like role.

It doesn't.
We could have had a smoother last day if we worked together instead of butted heads, but that didn't happen and so the alternative is to stand up and fight.

If you are town, you are absolutely 100% correct: I am the reason why the town will lose the game. AJ was correctly reading you as town, PN would have probably been swayed to hammer Fluff despite not really feeling it due to apathy/lack of hope. But telling me this now isn't really going to help work towards that purpose, nor will it make me perform better in the future. You are an unknown quantity and I am doing my best to sort out the game. I think you are scum, and telling me that I am losing town the game, despite it being an entirely true statement, isn't going to help. If it's helping you feel better for now, fine, but it will be much more productive/be much more likely to help after the game when you are no longer an unknown quantity.

[Kamigami]

You've asked for an argument on NS scum.

I think he's deliberately gambitted on a strategy of basically being as pro-town as possible and hoping that he can get through the game that way. It likely would have backfired if klingon and anen had used their roles properly, but they didn't. I think this is in keeping with the general scum macro-plan which seems to have involved wisdom getting himself killed early and trying to make KN appear obvtown.

The best argument, and one that's very correct despite your objections, is that he can't keep it up. Yes, NS has been trying harder lately, but he still hates being scum and this situation we're in today probably causes him near-physical pain. He did indeed vanish about when there were no partners left to safely bus. He was resistant to bussing plot, I think because of the remnant of the "KN goes the distance" plan. Bins doesn't like being scum either (FG tells me).

I also do think it's relevant, again despite your objections, that NS listed 11 people as town and that they were all town. Yes, I had similar reads and I even said so in the water hood. That readslist seemed so good to me that that's the reason I had him as town for much of the game. None of this changes the fact that there's about a 1% chance of successfully naming 11 out of 16 town in a 21 player game, and though I like ns, I just don't think he

that

incredible.

Have to put child to sleep, will continue this later.

[Kamigami]

Maybe he should generate an argument for why I'm scum, because what he had at the beginning of the day is "Kamigami should have died," which makes no sense, but is somehow more compelling to him than AJ being scum.

[Oil Tycoons]

As a whole, notscience has voted scum more often than you have. He has defended scum, sure (plot in later days), but he's defended them in places where it doesn't really make sense to defend them from a scum perspective (aka when their ship was already sunk). You have voted scum wagons late (your most convincing scum push was the push on pisskop, which was 5 on the wagon), and you've leveraged flips in order to get scum deeper into the game (the two points in particular was calling Brantz scumreading Wis-Kuroko as a reason to call both town, and the "lovers are probably town-town or scum-scum" claim). You played a more significant role in pushing Bacde than you did any of the first three scum lynches at a time when getting those specific mislynches was very, very important.

I can see you clearing WoF as scum. I can see you clearing AJ as scum. I can see you clearing ProHawk as scum (this is the most significant clear you've given the game, BTW). They are ballsy plays as scum, sure, but you have to play ballsy as scum if you want to win this game sometimes and this was certainly the game to take some risks.

I can't really see scummy pushes in notscience's ISO. His interactions with flipped scum seem pretty smooth, believable, and, if scum, he took the risk that I would hammer through mislynches and protect the shit out of him in a way that no one else would even though our reads weren't particularly wackadoodle at this point in time.

There have been points in this game where I've read your posts and I've flinched; in retrospect, these look like missteps in an otherwise impressive game. Notscience hasn't made me flinch in those same ways, and ultimately, this is why I've ended up on you-scum as opposed to notscience scum; I believe that when you're in a LyLo between two reads that were, before this day, pretty strong townreads, you choose the one who has made the most missteps if the evidence for them being town is comparable enough.

[Kamigami]

Then I'm sorry that your model is wrong, and I hope you update it.

I'm not sure what more you can expect.

I lynched scum every day I was active except for kling, who I defended the best I could at the level of confidence I had. I have performed nearly flawlessly with Night actions. I'd have won this game for town if NS had not given you that tincture, as you note above.

[Kamigami]

anyway, actually have to get this kid to sleep.

[Perpetual Nonsense]

I was worried Gaiden might rush the vote just cos Kaga asked him to, cos he loves to deliver divine justice!

We have been torn between Kaga yolo vote and no lynch screw it

I'm actually more worried about AJ than notscience
Waiting to hear back from Gaiden before WE proceed
But it's looking like a NL anyway since WE aren't gonna vote fluff

This head doesn't have it in him to vote notscience if NL happily ever after is an option, after that ffery-notscience-Bert endgame in that really old newbie game from 2013, unless I actually think he's scum (I find him null).