Open 623 (White Flag) - A Moment in Time (Over)

[Something_Smart]

First!
VOTE: Cerberus
Die, dog of the devil.

[Something_Smart]

I Question for everyone:
Given that this setup is white flag, what do you think of bussing in this game? Will scum do it? More importantly, would you do it if you were scum?

White Flag Gambit
Yeah, scum might do it. I probably wouldn't actively push my partner, since a successful bus puts you immediately on the verge of losing each day. But if my partner was going down for sure, I would try to play it naturally, which might include bussing.

[Something_Smart]

Best to just play the game naturally instead of planning out our strategies D1. If I don't know what I'm doing the Mafia surely can't counter my play.

I think you're scum with SS. Discuss.

I think you're scum with Rhazh and you're distancing.

[Something_Smart]

Lol you guys realize 21 was a joke right.

Vote on SS is now serious.

Interesting. Explain?

[Something_Smart]

So you think I'm dumb enough to pull out a serious associative tell on page 1.
Noted.

[Something_Smart]

I will not be using any associatives to scum-hunt this game.

This just caught my eye. Even if scum intentionally try to avoid associatives, they will still produce them. So why did you say this?

[Something_Smart]

Phantom why are scum's associatives unpredictable? The mechanic does not even kick in until two scum remain, what makes you think they will play differently with three alive?

[Something_Smart]

Phantom why are scum's associatives unpredictable? The mechanic does not even kick in until two scum remain, what makes you think they will play differently with three alive?

Can you rephrase this? It sounds like you're advocating for both sides here.

Okay.
Phantom, you said that you will ignore associatives in this game. You claimed this was because "the scum's associatives will be unpredictable." However, for the first few days this game plays no different from a normal game. So the scum's associatives will be just as predictable as they usually are. So what makes you say that?

[Something_Smart]

I think D1 associatives are very valuable in later days. And yes, associatives can exist before Mafia flips (see: whiteknighting) but they are more useful once one scum has flipped.
However, I think pointing out associations, without drawing definite conclusions, does have a place on day 1.
In any event, they certainly should not be ignored completely.

[Something_Smart]

Cause it was a joke
Relax, titus

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Rhazh
Attacking people without voting to support it, making unprompted references to what the scum want or do, inconsistencies in play. Overall feels like he is trying to fit in and play like everyone else is.

[Something_Smart]

Ah Titus I understand your pov now.
SirCakez feels off to me.

[Something_Smart]

I don't like Cakez because he's making unsupported statements while overly explaining his actions. He gives the feeling of scum trying not to stand out.
VOTE: SirCakez

[Something_Smart]

Now that's definitely a scum vote.

if you mean a vote on scum then yeah sure

[Something_Smart]

It wasn't a flip. "Off" means "not right". And Cakez you just said I was scum because of the scum motivation that you presupposed my posts would have, rather than looking at the actual motivation that they have. That's scum logic.

[Something_Smart]

SirCakez's posts are reading very cautious and contrived. And he's still ignoring my reasons in favor of a straw man.

[Something_Smart]

SirCakez how did you think I would read you? As town?

[Something_Smart]

Smart, Rz, and likely AI.

That's the team.

We can draw out this game scum, or you can put up the white flag. We can resolve this game in 300 posts, or we can draw it out.

Just gonna point out a few things.
1. You are scumreading 3 of the 4 newest players who have posted.
2. You believe that all 3 scum would pile on the same wagon at the beginning of day 1. In White Flag.
3. Your case on me is based primarily on one thing I did that another person who was scum also did.

Also Titus what is your read on SirCakez?

[Something_Smart]

1. Maybe you tend to read newbies more harshly (except for Dewy ).
2. You must think we're stupid, too.
3. Not to mention your case is really weak.

Give me some specific examples of SirCakez being obvious town.

[Something_Smart]

1. Nothing. I just noticed it.
2. The point of White Flag is that the scum need to go out of their way to avoid associating. However, now that you mention it I guess I might want to do that if I were scum. But I doubt my partners would.

Also, Titus, is it just your playstyle to be sure of everything? Because I would think only scum know the alignment of SirCakez as confidently as you do.

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart is probably town.

Speaking of buddying look at that first sentence.

Actually, I get the feeling that AI is more whiteknighting me. I could definitely see a SirCakez-AI team playing both sides of the wagon and soft double bussing.
Cerb and Titus on the other hand feel town to me.
Phantom is annoying and could go either way. Rhazh as well.
Pistachi0n is ok, seems honest and genuine enough.
Yonom's done very little except jump onto L-2 with scummy reasoning. Also, interestingly, she made almost the same joke as me, and caught no flak at all for it...

[Something_Smart]

Best to just play the game naturally instead of planning out our strategies D1. If I don't know what I'm doing the Mafia surely can't counter my play.

I think you're scum with SS. Discuss.

I think you're scum with Rhazh and you're distancing.

I think you're scum with SS and Rhazh and you're all distancing.

[Something_Smart]

you know what
VOTE: AlwaysInnocent
This is both whiteknighting and buddying, and it's unacceptable.

[Something_Smart]

also townreading someone who is scumreading you is fine
but townreading someone FOR scumreading you is scummy.

[Something_Smart]

I kinda have to agree with SirCakez and PC here, Something_Smart seems to be jumping on conclusions too fast and too randomly.

VOTE: Something_Smart

This was your only explanation for your vote. It seems like a weak buddying attempt and a crap explanation that could easily apply to several other players (how is the flashwagon on me not jumping to conclusions?). What I did was neither too fast (barely out of RVS) nor random (I gave reasons for each vote), and that qualifies your vote as opportunism.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, I usually look at how experienced the people I'm playing with are.
I pointed it out because I thought it was possible that Titus reads newbies more harshly. I still think that's part of the reason.

[Something_Smart]

Yonom, why do you not expect town to be scumhunting? I am focusing on the players I think are scum. It just so happens that two of the three I don't like are on my wagon, a wagon which half the players who have posted are on.

If you don't think that's how town should act, please tell me why what you are doing is any different.

Aside from this, there are several inconsistencies in your most recent post. The claim that I am first and foremost attacking people on my wagon is not even accurate. My vote is on one of the TWO players actually defending me.

Secondly, you spent an entire paragraph saying why your vote is to increase pressure and you don't necessarily want to lynch me, and then turn around and say I'm scummy, with only confbias as a reason.

Right now, my biggest scumreads are AlwaysInnocent and Yonom. If other people could let me know what their thoughts are regarding these players, I would appreciate it.

[Something_Smart]

I haven't really changed my opinion about them, I just have bigger fish to fry now. They are mild scumreads, you are moderate scum, and AI is scum.
Also my reads can be really capricious in the early phases of the game. Just a heads up.

[Something_Smart]

SirCakez, the confbias is real. When I vote you, you call it opportunistic and trying to avoid a lynch by pushing a counterwagon. When I move off of you, you say I'm moving my vote around too much. One of those decisions had to be consistent with your expectation of town, so why are you pretending that neither is?

[Something_Smart]

So basically, all townies tunnel from early day 1.

[Something_Smart]

Townies usually have confidence in their scumreads.

How much confidence? 'Cause I've been wrong enough to know that I may very well not be right here.
And while I do have limited confidence in multiple scumreads, I only have one vote. Are you telling me to only suspect one person at a time?

[Something_Smart]

I'm almost never confident day 1.
But that doesn't mean I don't have reasons.
And I haven't changed any of those reads. I voted Rhazh because he was mildly scummy. Then you were scummier so I voted you. Then AI was scummier so I voted him.
You're basically saying that once you have one scumread you should ignore everyone else and death tunnel that person. That's antitown.

[Something_Smart]

I'm almost never confident day 1.
But that doesn't mean I don't have reasons.
And I haven't changed any of those reads. I voted Rhazh because he was mildly scummy. Then you were scummier so I voted you. Then AI was scummier so I voted him.
You're basically saying that once you have one scumread you should ignore everyone else and death tunnel that person. That's antitown.

I agree with you man.

This is disgusting buddying.

VOTE: Rhazh
Attacking people without voting to support it, making unprompted references to what the scum want or do, inconsistencies in play. Overall feels like he is trying to fit in and play like everyone else is.

This doesn't sound like "mildly scummy".

I'm sorry I don't have your magical ability to discern town from scum on page 3, but for me anyway scumreads that early can only be so serious.

[Something_Smart]

What did I say wasn't serious?

[Something_Smart]

That's a good idea.

{Something_Smart}

{Titus, Cerberus v666}

{pistachi0n, TheCow}

{Viva La Gloria, Victor_Mortimer, NotAnAlt}

{Yonom, PhantomCobalt}

{RhazhBash, SirCakez}

{AlwaysInnocent}

And Rhazh you realize there is a difference between "a joke" and "a page 3 read that I don't want people to see as a huge commitment but that is my strongest so far". To say that it wasn't serious is a misrepresentation.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Rhazh
Attacking people without voting to support it, making unprompted references to what the scum want or do, inconsistencies in play. Overall feels like he is trying to fit in and play like everyone else is.

Oh my god SirCakez I totally see your point
This is like the biggest case ever

I think a better question is, why are you needling me about it?

Pedit: Yellow is null-leaning-scum. Already explained Yonom, and PC made his weird associative comment, voted me for questionable reasons, and hasn't done anything since.

[Something_Smart]

Titus, please read this. It's important.

Mafia is a profoundly psychological game. We try to understand why everyone is doing what they are, and it's hard sometimes. For a time I was mystified at how you could be so confident in such a small thing- and I would be just as mystified (only more upset) if you were right, because the fact is that it's not a tell at all.

Now, you jumped on it when we were barely out of RVS. That's ok- even semi-real votes in RVS don't mean that much. But the difference between this and a normal RVS is that normally, wagons will form and fall apart until the best wagon becomes a lynch. But here the first and only major wagon refused to die, and while there is certainly some scum effort in it, it's mostly due to you, Titus, whom I believe to be town.

Now we really get into the heart of the matter. I am believe that your case on me is based primarily on fallacies and bad assumptions. The first and foremost is your performance in Suidoken Mafia. This obviously gave a sense of validation to the tell, but it also gave you a pernicious feeling that it's always possible to be right on day 1, and that you should never back down. I fear I am about to pay for your stubbornness.

This is not Suidoken Mafia. It is a new game, with new players. You subconsciously want this game to go just like Suidoken, but the fact is it won't, and it's driving you to illogical conclusions. I believe you to be an excellent scumhunter, and it is my hope that your real scumhunting skills can be put to work, rather than being wasted tunneling alleged tells.

Another problem with this wagon is the positive feedback that results in tunneling. Confirmation bias is part of it; you see every thing I do as scummy because that's how you want to see it. This whole game I've felt trapped by the ability of other players to assign scum motivation to literally everything I do. Confirmation bias is normally acceptable bias, but when the case was built on such a weak foundation to begin with, it makes a mislynch dangerously easy.

Other fallacies that I see in this wagon are hopes and fears that defy probability and the fear of wrong action over wrong inaction. The first point is aptly summed up like this: why do people play the lottery, when statistically speaking they are throwing away their money? The answer is that they get starry-eyed dreaming of all the amazing things they could buy. The same way, you are getting starry-eyed at the prospect of catching all three scum day 1. But another part of the answer is that they are afraid that if today is the day they decide not to play their favorite numbers, then today might be the day that they come up, and how much of an idiot will they feel like then? You would feel so stupid if I actually turned out to be scum and you let me go that you can't even consider it.

The above effect is the fear of wrong action over wrong inaction. Suppose there was a train speeding toward a person tied to a track, and you could throw a switch diverting the train to a different track with five people on it. Would you throw the switch? Of course not. Now suppose you are standing on a bridge over the track, where the train is this time speeding toward five people, and you could push one person over the bridge to stop the train and save the other five. Interestingly, most people say they would not do it, even though mathematically it is the same as the other situation.

The fear of wrong action over wrong inaction leads you to feel less responsible if you lynch me and I flip town than if you stop tunneling me and I turn out to be scum. But the fact is that you will be more responsible when I flip town, because you failed to realize your mistake, and that the lynch was bad regardless in any event.

This is what I feel has gone wrong to cause my wagon. You've invested so much in this "tell" that you're afraid of what will happen if you leave me alive and you turn out to be right. As a result, you have to tunnel me until I die, even though (in your eyes) I very well could be town. But you don't, and I'm paying for your failure to realize that.

So far, Titus, I see mostly misguided town motivation in your posts. But if you continue to push me for no valid reason after hearing this, I will be inclined to see your actions as scum using an intentionally fabricated tell to drive a mislynch.

Please note that I am not solely trying to save myself. I am playing to my wincon, which is to lynch two scum before lynching four town. I know that the town will have an easier time lynching scum if they do not lynch me. Therefore it is in my interest, indeed in the interest of the town in general, to not lynch me.

Please note also that this is not an appeal to emotion. This is an appeal to the disregard of emotion, an appeal to reason and objectivity.

Titus, I know you are better than this. My life depends on your willingness to be impartial and objective.

[Something_Smart]

Droog's entrance was good, Eagle's was fine. People are saying they don't like my reads though, what about them don't you like?

[Something_Smart]

@Cerberus:
About PC, I don't like his accusation that my posts to him were "useless theory fluff" when he was the one who brought up the theory. I haven't pushed him because he hasn't been at the top of my scum list.
About Yonom, I felt a little better about her after her responses to my attacks, particularly where she acknowledged her fallacy.
About Rhazh, he's not being very helpful and he seems to be subtly egging on my wagon.
And another thing- I don't necessarily expect my 3 biggest scumreads to be the scumteam. So I don't think all my scumreads need to "fit in".

[Something_Smart]

So how confident are you then SirCakez? How confident can you be D1?

[Something_Smart]

Pretty confident. This discussion is going in circles.

Okay then SirCakez, answer this: What makes you so confident? Do you really think you are that good at Mafia?

[Something_Smart]

guys drop it about the avatar
how hard is it to read a name anyway

Pretty confident. This discussion is going in circles.

Okay then SirCakez, answer this: What makes you so confident? Do you really think you are that good at Mafia?

The reactions of you and others throughout the thread is making me confident. My townreads are agreeing with me is also making me confident.
And I don't think I'm good at mafia honestly.

So basically, confbias. Have any specific reasons?

[Something_Smart]

Titus, SirCakez has made weak cases, made reads based on who agrees with him, hasn't actually done that much scumhunting, and now this whole confidence load of crap.
Remember that scum's main problem is how confident they should appear in their reads. It's likely that SirCakez misjudged that on me and is now hurting for it.

[Something_Smart]

Eagle remind me where you changed your mind from not feeling good about lynching me (at least compared to Rhazh)?

[Something_Smart]

guys drop it about the avatar
how hard is it to read a name anyway

Pretty confident. This discussion is going in circles.

Okay then SirCakez, answer this: What makes you so confident? Do you really think you are that good at Mafia?

The reactions of you and others throughout the thread is making me confident. My townreads are agreeing with me is also making me confident.
And I don't think I'm good at mafia honestly.

So basically, confbias. Have any specific reasons?

The series of posts I quoted earlier. That progression of thinking was one I don't see coming from town.
The "It was a joke" thing. That's been hashed over a ton already.

So basically your argument boils down to "he seems too confident but he isn't" and "he joked in RVS".
I've already discussed the former. For the latter please read my wallpost to Titus in its entirety.

AI for the love of god could you please give a reason for anything you say.

[Something_Smart]

Yonom you summed up my thought process pretty well.
Basically, my feeling is that I have one vote and more than one scumread. Since my reads are constantly changing and shifting, my top scumread changes frequently, although any given read never changes that fast.
For instance, I find it likely that I will vote SirCakez soon. This is not because AI has gotten any less scummy, it's just I'm starting to see SirCakez as scum who screwed up how confident he was supposed to be in his reads.
Yonom's analysis is very good but could have come from town or scum. It seems genuine, but it also seems easy enough to fake (I recall faking a similar case in my first game).
That last sentence is horrible, however.

[Something_Smart]

My only completed scumgame
The big case I made on a town player
The similarity is that both were a methodical analysis of a player's actions and the possible scum motivation behind them. And the reason I pointed out that it could be town or scum is not because it's just a generic NAI post, but because I could see very distinct reasons for either alignment to do that.

And "finding something to complain" is also called "finding something to analyze." I'm trying to analyze others despite the pressure on me and not be caught up in self-preservation.

[Something_Smart]

SirCakez can you give an explained readlist please?

[Something_Smart]

Town

Something_Smart-

Objectively very protown.

Titus-

Super confident in a wrong conclusion, and her analysis seems very genuine. Scum would probably be more concerned with keeping up her image when her push succeeds and I flip town.

Cerberus v666-

The other extreme from Titus. They're so cautious and impartial in a game where it would be easy to hop on one wagon or the other with little explanation (and they have provided plenty of explanation). They're trying to avoid being biased, and I would say that they are the most likely to come to the correct conclusion today, for the correct reasons.

Droog-

Nothing wrong with droog's play thus far. His argument with Cerberus over avatars gives him an "I don't care" feeling that indicates town. And he's got a fair amount of valid analysis.

Extrapolated Eagle-

I don't see anything wrong with his play either. He hasn't adopted a uniquely towny viewpoint but I'm willing to put him as town for now.

Null

Pistachi0n-

Very little content. Hasn't changed or even reconsidered her vote in a long time. I would be interested to see her reads.

NotAnAlt-

Something about em just rubs me the wrong way. E hasn't contributed much and eir 180 smells suspiciously of whiteknighting.

PhantomCobalt-

Basically a non-presence beyond his early vote on me for debating his associative resolution. Like pistachi0n, I would like to see him reconsider his reads.

Yonom-

Seems to be trying to formulate a serious case on me where there is none. I've already mentioned what makes me uneasy about 333. However, one redeeming factor is that she has several times conceded my points, which she would have no reason to do if she was intent on mislynching me.

Scum

TheCow-

A lot of annoying unsupported statements, particularly about droog. Gives random reads without explaining them.

RhazhBash-

My minicase in 70 still applies, the meta read on Cakez is suspect, and seems to be trying to make me appear self-contradictory and scummy.

SirCakez-

This read has been discussed a lot. Needling me in order to get me to say something that can be misquoted or misrepresented later, the whole "townies should be confident deal", and using general statements as proof. However, I do like his reads; if you are town, Cakez, I would recommend you reread Yonom because your read on her seems to based on her saying what you were thinking. I'm not actually sure her motivation is towny.

AlwaysInnocent-

Ridiculous buddying/whiteknighting me; random, unsupported reads; "I am never townread by town"; utter lack of scumhunting.

[Something_Smart]

AI has not done anything protown all game. Why should he be townread?
AI, if you actually want to help town, you could make a case as to why I am town. That would benefit us both.

[Something_Smart]

I think because Titus always does that. But that's not the only read for that read.

[Something_Smart]

AI, why are you ignoring your top townread? Please explain your read on me.

[Something_Smart]

AI that reads list is so obviously half-assed that you didn't even bother to substitute in replacements.
Half-assing reads is basically a scumclaim because it indicates that your reads are fake.
What did you even say about Cerberus? Stop dodging the question and just give a few sentences explaining why you are so sure I am town.

[Something_Smart]

^why are we not lynching this

[Something_Smart]

Dang it, pagetop. Drixx, if you want to replace my previous post with a VC, be my guest.

Okay, but what about my and other people's reactions caused you to change your reads?

It's a secret.

^why are we not lynching this

[Something_Smart]

AI can you link to all your completed scumgames please?

[Something_Smart]

Yeah that's what I was afraid of
cause AI's meta is all over the place
The only thing I really got is that he's not trying as hard here as he has in other games. He did try harder in his scumgame, so that, if anything, works in his favor. But I wish we could see some of the actual analysis that he's been doing both as town and as scum in his other games. Perhaps this is an effort to try a different scum playstyle?

A warning: my reads are undergoing massive structural damage and will probably be unrecognizable pretty soon. I'm gonna do a full reread because I'm really having trouble making sense of it.

[Something_Smart]

A good point
One that I figured you'd be more likely to mention as scum
I would more see town saying "this isn't actually that different"

[Something_Smart]

How is it different?

More importantly, how is it better?

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart is probably town.

Speaking of buddying look at that first sentence.

Actually, I get the feeling that AI is more whiteknighting me. I could definitely see a SirCakez-AI team playing both sides of the wagon and soft double bussing.
Cerb and Titus on the other hand feel town to me.
Phantom is annoying and could go either way. Rhazh as well.
Pistachi0n is ok, seems honest and genuine enough.
Yonom's done very little except jump onto L-2 with scummy reasoning. Also, interestingly, she made almost the same joke as me, and caught no flak at all for it...

Lolz. The paranoia sure makes you look town.

I'm almost never confident day 1.
But that doesn't mean I don't have reasons.
And I haven't changed any of those reads. I voted Rhazh because he was mildly scummy. Then you were scummier so I voted you. Then AI was scummier so I voted him.
You're basically saying that once you have one scumread you should ignore everyone else and death tunnel that person. That's antitown.

I agree with you man.

LOL. What is it with these paranoid townies.

Why are we still discussing this? Something_Smart is obvious town.

VOTE: TheCow

I am never townread by town.

Okay, but what about my and other people's reactions caused you to change your reads?

It's a secret.

[Something_Smart]

1 & 3: I get bad vibes from the word "paranoid", mostly because I've never used it as town, but used it successfully multiple times as scum.
2 & 4: Buddying.
5: Already been discussed.
6: Not explaining reads is blatantly antitown.

[Something_Smart]

1. If you're paranoid it means your townread on someone is too strong. By calling me paranoid AI is implying that I am townreading him but for some reason don't feel good about that townread.
2. There's agreeing, and there's trying to get someone to like you. I am most certainly not "obvious town". Also the post AI purported to agree with contained an allegation that AI was scummy. (Pedit: you never gave the original reason for townreading me. Something must have started the circular logic.)
6. Okay, let me rephrase that. Sharing your reads without explaining them does nothing to help town.

Pedit: When I reread I will make a good effort not to be biased by playstyle. Honestly the odds are good that my scumread on AI will disappear (or at least weaken) but for now I haven't seen anything better worth voting. I'm really irritated by this game not producing obvious targets. (That wasn't a scumslip; don't even think about it, Titus!)

[Something_Smart]

EE those are some really good points. There's just a few things I'd like to mention.
1. AI is a very smart player and he probably knew most of what you said before the game. To me his posts have not shown a ton of town motivation per se, although I agree with you that the playstyle is not a normal scum one. But I think AI is capable of intentionally playing like this as scum. WIFOM ensues.
2. If finding scum is about reactions and trying to blend in, then why are you scumreading me for a slip that was not a slip when I don't fit your scum criteria?

[Something_Smart]

There it is... the word "paranoid" again (in 459). Ugh. It gives me the chills.
Here's why:

So now Tojam is confirmed scum, otherwise makesnosense or Kerkorrel would have hammered.
Kerkorrel, it's good to be paranoid, but the more we talk today, the more info the scum will have for who to kill.
And Drixx, I don't think Kerkorrel should post his reads; all that does is give the scum more possibilities to throw us off with a WIFOM kill. I think we already have enough information to lynch correctly tomorrow.

This from my scumgame, taken from 5-player LYLO, immediately before

Kerkorrel

hammered

tojam2

, after considering a potential scumteam of

Something_Smart

and

Drixx

.
I was proud of my use of "paranoid" to subtly imply that Kerkorrel's suspicion of me was unreasonable. Paranoid means more afraid of something than you should be; to say that I am paranoid about AI implies that I should not be afraid of him, and therefore that I should townread him. This is precisely the type of manipulation that scum will try.
However, I am convinced enough by your argument to put AI at null again.
And since I really don't like SirCakez's response to your case (and I haven't liked him all game),
VOTE: SirCakez

[Something_Smart]

uh yeah, I know what correct logic is
the post quoted is scumlogic
I used it because I was scum. My point is that the logic of several players reminds me of it.
However, I do understand if you don't know the correct usage of "paranoid". But that is what it means.
And droog why are you saying my reads haven't moved? I have twelve players to read, the fact that one read has not changed is hardly proof.
And as proof of the opposite, watch this: my townread on EE is gone. It is likely soon to be replaced with a scumread.

[Something_Smart]

Why has it gone away?

470 is horrible. Deliberately misinterpreting my post, being condescending and antagonistic, calling my post a slip for no reason.

[Something_Smart]

Really? What ways?

[Something_Smart]

I should probably start writing an epitaph for myself, huh
I'm still waiting on EE explaining why my logic was bad and why it was a scumslip because I'm really not seeing it

[Something_Smart]

i guess ill answer the first question first
you expressed a case on cake almost at daystart
and it hasnt really cahnged

meanwhile you wanted that everyone else
to take time to change their reads on you

theres bad dissonance

Whaaaaaaaat?
First of all, my case on SirCakez has changed since daystart. It's the read that happened to stay the same. Read the thread.
Second of all, I know all the scumreads on me are wrong, so of course I want them to change. If I knew SirCakez was town, I obviously wouldn't be pushing him.

[Something_Smart]

Seriously EE
Now he's already confbiased

[Something_Smart]

Keep reading please.

I don't like this. Obviously he's going to keep reading. It seems over-anxious to avoid being scumread.

[Something_Smart]

What would everyone's opinions be of an EE wagon? I'd prefer that to SirCakez, because I have given my reasons for voting SirCakez but this is starting to feel more and more like a mislynch. I'm trying not to tunnel too badly here.

[Something_Smart]

@Viva: Burden of proficiency is a fallacy. But I'm starting to be fed up with Titus literally scumreading everything I do.

[Something_Smart]

What is vote telegraphing?

[Something_Smart]

If townies do it why is it a scumtell.

[Something_Smart]

It's a scum indicator, not a tell.

Second, townies do it in the manner I described. You did it like scum do. Waiting for acceptance on a weaker read.

Nobody is obvscum. But a single vote on EE does nothing. If I had voted him you'd just have attacked me for changing my vote too much.

[Something_Smart]

"Town can be wrong"
That's a nice death tunnel you got there.
And what part of that said I was acting out of fear?

[Something_Smart]

I'm liking neither Viva nor titus right now. They're both maneuvering into weird positions that make me uncomfortable.

I haven't manuevered at all. My reads are pretty static.

Lynch SS.

Yeah your reads are pretty static for someone who's supposed to be analyzing what's going on.
Titus, before you die, can you at least read 224 instead of brushing it off with "nice wall"?

[Something_Smart]

@Viva: I don't want Titus lynched but I'm afraid she will be when I flip town.
@Cow: if you don't want to read the thread then don't play the game.

[Something_Smart]

I was townreading her in the beginning. Now she's kind of at null-leaning-town-unclear.

[Something_Smart]

I don't see why she's obvscum. Townies tunnel all the time.

[Something_Smart]

Okay yeah Viva you have a point. My opinion is that being stupidly confident in a scumread is a towntell, but the 180 on Yonom is pretty awful. The not fighting against the SirCakez wagon I understand.

[Something_Smart]

Why does that make it not a thing?

[Something_Smart]

Cakez if I get lynched and flip town will you want to lynch Titus then? Because my fear is that her tunnel on me will lead to tunnels on her when EE was far more scummy in his attacks on me.

[Something_Smart]

Something Smart has a strong read on Titus, is that really weird?
Yes, it is.

I was townreading her in the beginning. Now she's kind of at null-leaning-town-unclear.

Read the thread before making comments like that.

[Something_Smart]

Well then they're all wrong. I'd recommend you rewrite them now (at least hypothetically), because you should have independent reads and maybe a few associative ones.
EE, same for you, but to a lesser extent.

[Something_Smart]

Because Titus, EE, AI and Rhazh/Fire all have associative with SS. Some are townreading and some are scum reading so his flip will be invaluable to sorting those reads further.

I'm town. Adjust your reads accordingly.

[Something_Smart]

@Viva I'd like to engage you but I am obviously not going to dispute your townread on me. I am trying to work out whether it's towny rationality or whiteknighting, but talking to you about that won't really help.

[Something_Smart]

What part of "I'm trying to determine if it's whiteknighting" don't you understand?

[Something_Smart]

You're considering it which is close enough.

I'm considering that you may be a really bad townie but that doesn't mean I believe it. This is terrible logic.

[Something_Smart]

@pistachio

No. I've already said I'm scumreading ss for two reasons: 1. His vote at the beginning of the game, 2. His intentionally poor logic recently. Like I have said a million times now, outside of these two mistakes, ss would be a town read because of similar reasons to why ai is a town read.

Interesting, please explain where I used intentionally poor logic?

I think the quoted is intentionally poor logic. You think I'm skilled enough scum to play ALL GAME like your description of town, but dumb enough to slip twice? You haven't even explained why the second "slip" is a slip.

[Something_Smart]

^Too many townreads; only two scumreads which have both been super easy targets. Come up with some better scumreads. Make some enemies.

[Something_Smart]

There are three scum in this game. You have two scumreads. Do the math.
And the two scumreads you do have are ones you will catch no flak for having. Basically that is a risk-free readlist right there.
EE, you were talking about scum trying to blend in and avoid standing out? That's exactly what this is.

[Something_Smart]

You and your slips.
Why don't you stop pointlessly accusing me of using bad logic and scumlogic, and start pointing to the places and explaining where I did?
And if it's easy to play as your description of town then why are you townreading AI? He's done nothing to help the town thus far. (Granted that I am weak townreading him too, but I believe that it is hard to play like that as scum.)

[Something_Smart]

... I have?

You really haven't. All you've done is said "oh paranoid means one thing when you use it and another thing when I use it." The rest has just been quoting posts and saying "the logic here is terrible" without explaining why.

[Something_Smart]

You're dodging the question again, EE. How hard is this to understand?
I realize you have explained things. But you have not explained what I asked.
You have many times accused me of using bad logic. You have only once explained what about my logic was bad, and that amounted to "I used paranoid incorrectly and you're scum for interpreting it the way it's supposed to be used." And you also said "there's no point explaining to you because you're scum."
You have also called one of my posts a slip. You have never explained what in it constituted a slip. You are in fact the list here.

[Something_Smart]

lol the one time I decide not to hit preview
That last sentence should read "You are in fact the liar here."

[Something_Smart]

Thank you, EE, for giving us a textbook example of bad logic.
"He's not looking for scum, he's looking for people to lynch." You think scum win mislynches by acting like their target is town? Clearly, I want to lynch scum, that should go without saying. But I guess it doesn't, because you're not trying to lynch scum. You're trying to mislynch me, and say afterward, "sorry but he slipped so he had to go".

[Something_Smart]

'Cause my reads change really quickly and capriciously in early game, but they've kind of settled down. But I do feel a vote coming on EE, since I'm scumreading him too and it's unlikely SirCakez is his partner. Just looking at some ISOs I could totally feel an EE-FB team. But the reason I haven't changed yet is that there's been no support for an EE wagon and a lone vote is useless, so right now it's doing more on SirCakez.

[Something_Smart]

Touché.
VOTE: Extrapolated Eagle
I would like to hear Firebringer's thoughts about EE.

[Something_Smart]

I am noting how you stopped changing your vote when people gave you heat for it; I'm also noting how you were quick to vote EE when I pointed out it was odd that you weren't.

aw man, you figured me out
it wasn't just because you gave me heat, you also made a good point

[Something_Smart]

I mean, there's two ways to place your vote. You can vote your top scumread, or you can vote the one out of your scumreads who you think is most likely to be lynched. I'm still figuring out when is the appropriate time for each, and the only way I can gauge that is by others' reactions.
Out of curiosity, which do you think is stronger?

[Something_Smart]

No colors this time. It's symbolic of my approaching death.
Town
Cerberus
droog
AlwaysInnocent

Weak town
Titus
Viva
Pistachi0n

Null
Phantom

Weak scum
Cow
Fire
Yonom

Scum
SirCakez
Eagle

Even though SirCakez and EE are my top scumreads if one flips scum the other is more likely to flip town (unless the white flag gambit). I know you guys are going to want to lynch Titus tomorrow but I believe EE to be a better lynch. If EE is scum I could see very easily an EE/Fire team.

[Something_Smart]

AI, as my official bodyguard, I have a task for you. Rather than threatening the people on my wagon, why don't you hunt among them for players who secretly know I will flip town. Obviously at least half my wagon is town, probably more. So don't waste your time defending me. That does nothing to help the town. Rather, you can get a head start on catching scum day 2 since you already know my flip.

[Something_Smart]

EE is pushing my mislynch hard too. Do you see specific scum motivation in Titus's posts? Really, what I see is more stupid confidence in an RVS tell, and I think ridiculous confidence is a towntell (no, SirCakez, that doesn't mean lack of confidence is a scumtell). I see much more scum motivation in EE's posts. I find it noteworthy how EE in his catchup would rather lynch Rhazh/Fire than me. Then without mentioning Rhazh/Fire at all, he starts pushing me based on crap logic. It makes me think he is scum, and if he is, then Fire is his partner.
AI your thoughts?

[Something_Smart]

I think she thinks I am scum, and is rationalizing by saying, "even if he isn't, we'll have a good chance at a scum lynch tomorrow." Now this thought process is fine, but I think the choice of target is bad.
@Basically everyone: Why are you townreading EE? And why can you not see that when I flip town he will be obvious scum? Please at least give Titus the benefit of the doubt and lynch EE first.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, give Titus the benefit of the doubt. I've seen her play more scummily than this and be town. And I've heard that she's really good in the later days.
Out of curiosity, why is Titus scum for pushing my mislynch but not EE, when EE's way of doing it is far scummier?

[Something_Smart]

I suppose that's reasonable. I could see Titus-Cakez team based on lack of interaction. I could also see a Titus-EE team. That's why I think EE is a much better lynch.
On the other hand, I don't think EE-AI is impossible. AI's being pretty darn wishy-washy about him.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think anyone is scumreading EE right now except you.

Yeah that's what annoys me. Everyone's like "oh if SS flips town then lynch Titus for pushing him" when EE's push is more opportunistic and full of crap logic. Just freaking read his ISO; he's misrepresenting me like crazy and pushing me based off of lies and crap logic. Whereas Titus at least has a reason, albeit a fallacious one (she has used her tell successfully before).

[Something_Smart]

Look who's talking.

[Something_Smart]

Oh, I'm in complete and utter agreement with you.
Like I said, we should run up Titus and make her explain her reads better.
She can't then we lynch her, she can, we can look into other lynches.

Why is everybody ignoring me? How does this logic not apply even better for EE?

[Something_Smart]

You think voting her will make her engage? She'll just keep repeating what she's said and calling her wagon scum-led. Besides, if you notice, she does have an understandable (understandably wrong, but still) reason to vote me. EE on the other hand has a bunch of lies and misrepresentations.
Vote EE with me and make HIM engage.

[Something_Smart]

*rolls eyes*

You know, all three of you might be taken more seriously read-wise if you knew what "buddying" actually was and when it indicates scum instead of just attacking anything that doesn't look mad at you.

Did I say misrepresentation? EE is trying to discredit me by saying I'm falsely accusing others of buddying, when in fact I do not believe AI or Viva is buddying me.
This is obvious scum.

[Something_Smart]

I like Eagle's logic about Titus.
It makes me wonder why he can't use logic of a similar caliber about me.

@SirCakez: I don't expect Titus to explain better because she already thinks she has confirmed me as scum. I expect Eagle to give more scumlogic, but he might produce some real logic. Only one way to find out.

[Something_Smart]

AI, not everyone is capable of seeing that I am obvious town. But regardless of that, your feelings about Eagle are in the right place.

[Something_Smart]

AI, not everyone is capable of seeing that I am obvious town. But regardless of that, your feelings about Eagle are in the right place.

Not everyone, but some people are just pretending not to see it.

Titus can't see it because she's blinded by her own confidence in her "tell" (most likely).
Eagle is pretending not to see it. That's why he can't make a logical case on me.

[Something_Smart]

SS's flailing looks like it's from town. I'm not voting that.

How is he flailing?

He's flailing.

Watch his reads. They're only feelings based on who's attacking him and who isn't. Your reads are kind of like this as well. I suggest you stop.

The misrepresentation continues. I know 6 people in this town who are wrong. Some of them are being misled, and some are doing the misleading. You are the latter kind. You're making it sound like OMGUS. I suggest you die.

As to your point about Titus, being wrong about someone does not make anyone scum, and I doubt she's wrong on SS anyways. Titus has been wrong before as town.

AI, not everyone is capable of seeing that I am obvious town. But regardless of that, your feelings about Eagle are in the right place.

Not everyone, but some people are just pretending not to see it.

Titus can't see it because she's blinded by her own confidence in her "tell" (most likely).
Eagle is pretending not to see it. That's why he can't make a logical case on me.

Why did you respond to Titus the way you did on page one?

Because it's absurd to take an accusation of distancing on page one seriously.
I do agree with your logic on Titus. Because it's actually logic.

Wouldn't scum have desperation as well?

Yes. Which is part of why I'm still voting ss.

Yeah, I'd say desperation is a nulltell. Nobody wants to be lynched.

[Something_Smart]

I like how AI's scumread on Eagle suddenly developed only when Eagle started to get pressured by other players.

...I've been pressuring Eagle for a while?

Pedit: Sorry Eagle I misread your question. I thought you meant why I responded to Titus taking me seriously by saying "lol you guys realize that was a joke right".
I thought Titus's "you're scum with Rhazh" was a joke, so I joked back.

Peditedit: AI, Eagle is right, stop using Wikipedia to defend yourself.

[Something_Smart]

Eagle, I already answered it. My response to the quoted post of Titus's was to make that joke, as I thought there was no way she could be serious that early, especially saying "Discuss."

Pedit: Going on a bit? Really? That's saying he's scummy for changing his mind in the face of new information.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah Eagle don't worry, you can see if someone has opened a pm you've sent, so Drixx can confirm that Viva did not.

I like how AI's scumread on Eagle suddenly developed only when Eagle started to get pressured by other players.

...I've been pressuring Eagle for a while?

Pedit: Sorry Eagle I misread your question. I thought you meant why I responded to Titus taking me seriously by saying "lol you guys realize that was a joke right".
I thought Titus's "you're scum with Rhazh" was a joke, so I joked back.

Peditedit: AI, Eagle is right, stop using Wikipedia to defend yourself.

Are you seriously taking suggestions from scum?

Yeah, in order for scum to be believable, they have to be right about some things.

Pedit: no Cakez because Eagle dug himself deeper and deeper as I accused him. And it's not unheard of to be skeptical of a case out of the blue but change your mind once it is explained more or you look at it again.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know about SirCakez and Eagle because Eagle did vote SirCakez when he caught up, but I could see Titus with either one of them. And TheCow with any of them.
Don't forget Yonom either.

[Something_Smart]

[Something_Smart]

You know my reads. Please get Eagle tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

Also TheCow's hammer sucked so you might want to look at him too.
And Yonom, Cakez and Fire (especially if Eagle is scum).

[Something_Smart]

Well, it's been fun playing with y'all, hope I can improve my day one in future games.
I'll be rooting for town all the way!

[Something_Smart]

asdfghjkl;
I was god-awful this game. I listed five scumreads (out of 12 people) in the dead thread right after I died. THEY WERE ALL TOWN. GAAAAAAAAAAH
gg though. wp scum.