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Post #12 (isolation #0) » Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:03 am
Postby RedCoyote »
In post 0, zoraster wrote:It's pretty easy! For each state and major candidate I'll give an over/under number. If you guess correctly, you get a point. If you don't, you don't get a point. Your entry is your first guess, and here we go (next post).
Points will be adjusted based on how many candidates remain and how late we're in the process with a competitive race.
1) Do you plan on posting all the numbers the day of the caucus/primary?
2) What are you going to do for SEC/Super Tuesday?
3) Out of curiosity, where do you get your numbers from? Those don't correspond with RCP.
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Post #20 (isolation #3) » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:46 am
Postby RedCoyote »
SC is going to be a knife fight, I tell you what. Both sides.
GOP has three potential outcomes (only two are likely). It's either all aboard the Trump Train or we're setting the Cruz Control. I almost want to see Rubio recover though because if he were to somehow win, forget about it. Total chaos.
I don't care what anyone says about any firewall, Hillary is on such a downward trend that I laid some money down on the Bern. There hasn't been a poll in SC since before the Iowa caucuses, let alone NH. The spread in NH goes from Sanders +14 to a result of Sanders +22? What good news is going to happen for Hillary in the next two weeks? Momentum is totally working against her. She's just bleeding support and everyone loves an underdog story. The media are salivating at the thought of a "Sanders drawing comparisons to Obama" narrative. I'm absolutely loving this.
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Post #81 (isolation #8) » Sun Feb 28, 2016 3:41 am
Postby RedCoyote »
In post 78, zoraster wrote:Eh, I made it too wide perhaps, but I'm looking at polls and 538 predictions. The 538 prediction has a wider margin of victory than the one posted (Clinton 67, Sanders 29). A lot of pretty iffy polls out that afffect that, honestly. The two that've been released recently have margins of 50 and 23. Polls that are a bit older in the tooth have the margin at 28-29, so a 34 point spread isn't totally out of the question.
All that said, my goal isn't to predict the real world. It's to try and get people to roughly split on each over/under, and in that I clearly failed.
I thought that was a fair number. I actually would've predicted around that 66-32 as a final result, thinking that there was still a little gas in the Bernie tank to give him a slightly better break than that. It's clear to me now that there's zero appeal for Sanders in the south in spite of Hillary's shortcomings.
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Post #100 (isolation #10) » Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:46 am
Postby RedCoyote »
I'm game to keep playing. The GOP isn't going to wrap up anytime soon, and I don't really see why Sanders would drop with the money he's pulling/has to spend. Easy way to build some name/issue recognition.
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Post #133 (isolation #15) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:35 pm
Postby RedCoyote »
Tomorrow's results separates the men from the boys. We've got some close calls in Illinois and Ohio on both sides and in NC and Missouri on the GOP side. Exciting!
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Post #134 (isolation #16) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:36 pm
Postby RedCoyote »
I'm doing some work out here in Florida, and this is definitely Trump land. I suspect him and Hillary have it in the bag. What sense are you getting from NC, Reck?
