Mini 1770: College Mafia! (Game Ovah)

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Night Hunters

[GuiltyLion]

Was Jeanne's joke so bad that it didn't warrant a response?

I wouldn't say the joke is bad, but shows up basically once per RVS for me.

I agree with BBT, SC has had a weird change in heart and only in less than a day.

Why does it being "less than a day" matter? Is it supposed to take someone a long time to change their mind? This reads to me like someone who is trying to add an extra spin to something to make it sound scummier than it is.

VOTE: tojam2

Night Hunters - why do you think Firebringer would go out of his way to hard townread a scumbuddy this early?

[GuiltyLion]

GL, why do you think Fire would be town reading a buddy? Why can't he be town reading a townie?

shhhh don't interrupt my question

I'll answer this once NH answers

[GuiltyLion]

GL, why do you think Fire would be town reading a buddy? Why can't he be town reading a townie?

So the reason I asked that question to NH is because I'm not seeing SirCakez as strongly scum as they are - their push feels forced. I really doubt a Fire-SC scumteam would open the game this way. If anything, I would think it would be more likely that Fire could be scum WKing town!SC. But NH forming pre-flip associatives like 106 is ew.

[GuiltyLion]

You're claiming that because you don't agree our scumread is forced? That makes no sense.

It's not just that I don't agree, it's the way you're aggressively over-selling the scumread. 90 looked to me like you're shaping your read of Fire around your scumread of SirCakez, without considering alternative scenarios where SirCakez is town, which is why I asked you about it.

Your train of thought also reeks of bullshit. You asked us why Fire scum and SirCakez might be scum together in 104 and you argued our answer in 106 was creating unjust associative pairings. You asking a question that suggests we assume a preflip association (that might or might not be true) cannot be a logical foundation for claiming preflip associations are scummy.

I was hoping to see some sort of deeper thinking or natural doubt when I asked 104, but instead you just again restated this SC-and-maybe-Fire theory in plainest terms possible.

And to act like you're not forming an association there or pushing Fire on it (with the parenthetical "might or might not be true") is bogus. You're obviously scumreading SirCakez, and you're obviously suspecting Fire for townreading him, and you literally said "they make sense as partners" just a sentence later.

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion, I miss your old avi man. What happened to Nathan Fielder!!

Hahah, I might bring him back soon! I'm starting to get tired of this one

[GuiltyLion]

@GL, Until Fire justifies what pinged his gut, he doesn't get a pass on that. *shrug* You seem much more concerned with painting my arguments than actually responding to them. You say my scumread on Cakez is oversold. Are you scumreading Cakez and just objecting to my methods? Then why ankle bite me. Are you townreading Cakez? Then why are you focused more on my perception rather than analyzing the substance of my arguments.

The attempt to move my independent but possibly aligned scumreads to the both being certain scum is bad. If you try to force all my posts to be arguing that Fire and Cakez must be scum together, you can argue only one is town and then dismiss the case on the other.

Why are you focused on the perception of me?

I am not trying to paint your arguments in any way, I'm trying to get a read on you. I see your points about SirCakez, but I just don't find them all that alignment indicative and so I'd rather push on the people on his wagon to see whether I feel it's a town driven wagon or scum driven wagon.

I've never understood the site meta of aggressively committing to scumreads early on, it's an easy way for scum to find things to push and townies to confbias themselves into reading the game incorrectly. Nearly every game I play (especially minis) starts with a big wagon on someone who winds up town, with at least one scum taking the easy vote onto the main center of attention.

So I'm slight townlean on SirCakez due to the amount of people pushing on him. I'm not sure I understand what you mean by focusing on perception, I'm trying to figure out if your scumreads are genuine.

[GuiltyLion]

The cakey wagon has kind of died out, a lot of you want either a Fire policy lynch or a Gl scum lynch, and seen as he voted for me basically for agreeing with someone else:

VOTE: GL

That's not why I voted you. I voted you because of the way you described your vote on SC - you didn't like his change of heart in 'only less than a day'. Why do you think a quick turnaround is scummy?

And who is pushing for my lynch? Two votes on me are from RVS. NH has vocalized concerns with me but as far as I can tell they are more concerned with SirCakez.

[GuiltyLion]

Also, I am against a Fire policy lynch. Either you think he's scum or you don't, we're not going to give everyone convenient excuses to join a wagon without trying to play the game. Policy lynches are terribly anti-town.

[GuiltyLion]

What's the criteria here? Why is SirCakez the "early wagon on town" but I wasn't?

This seems weirdly self-conscious. Your wagon felt like it was mostly an attempt to drag the game out of RVS, no one gave any specific or particular reasons for voting you, and it died immediately, lasting maybe two pages at most. Hardly a legitimate wagon.

The difference is with SirCakez we have people making cases on him and pushing him as scum. Aside from BBT's 61 calling you scum, I don't think this was ever the case with your wagon.

Do you see the irony in italics here?

Is that supposed to imply that Firebringer isn't playing the game? If so, what gives you that impression?

My point was just that policy lynches give everyone an excuse to not scumhunt. I don't think BBT is scummy for suggesting it but it's a bad idea regardless.

I feel like you've asked NH a loaded question and are now trying to push them based on their answer. I don't like this at all.

Also, your wording suggests that at this time you're reading SC as scum, is that correct? Because if so, you need to explain why NH's read is forced and if not, you need to explain the line that says 'not reading SC as strongly as scum as they are'.

I don't think I ever pushed NH, I poked at them to get a reaction and develop a read. If I were pushing them I'd be voting them.

My phrasing there isn't clear though, at the time I was null on SirCakez. I wanted to emphasize that I didn't think their reasons for scumreading him were all that alignment indicative. Basically, instead of reading it as "I'm seeing him scum, but not as much as they are", which seems to be how you're interpreting it, it should be read like "I see what they're saying, but I don't think it necessarily makes him scum".

I thought their points in 83 were valid, but then their 90 was way overconfident and I don't see pro-town motivation in it. Further, 106 didn't really show any of the deeper level thinking or doubt that I was looking for with my question, it was just "he's scummy". Again, I didn't really disagree with their points about SC, but I didn't think they were as indicative as NH seemingly thinks they are in 90 and 106.

[GuiltyLion]

Do you disagree with the arguments against him? Or do you just townread anyone that has a wagon forming on them?

Here's the post that started this whole line of conversation and wagon against SC (at least, in my head):

You're hypocritical on wagons (go night hunters wagon but not massive), not stating your reads but engaging in pointless setup spec (47), advocating being passive in (74), looking for a bail out in (80).

I agree that SirCakez treated the NH wagon differently than the massive wagon, it is the most suspicious thing that he has done.

the "not stating your reads but engaging in pointless setup spec" is a reach. 47 isn't really "spec", it's a one-liner about theory, and further, I don't know how many reads you can really have and express 2 pages into the game.

The "advocating being passive" argument I feel conflicted about. It's true that SirCakez was saying we should have a legitimate reason to wagon, which feels like a contrived reason to explain his massive wagon defense. However, 74 was a direct response to BBT's 73, so the way NH used this particular post to indict him felt shoehorned.

And then the "looking for a bail out" argument rests entirely on the assumption that SirCakez is scum, which I don't like. It's an explanation for his posting after already making a conclusion about his alignment. It's

possible

that scum!SC is doing exactly what NH said, but it's the certainty in the explanation that pings me.

Altogether, it was mostly justifiable claims about his play so far, but nothing convincing and certainly easy enough reasons for someone to fake a scumread over. And then you have all the subsequent posts like this:

I agree with BBT, SC has had a weird change in heart and only in less than a day. VOTE: SC

and this:

You have no scum reads, and don't want to continue wagoning people....yep, I'm good with this wagon.

VOTE: SirCakez

and this:

For now, I'm interested in the SC-Firebringer connection and the possible WKing theory floating about. I need to see how certain things develop.

and this:

In any case, I don't find it a reason to townread SirCakez

and it all reads together like a lot of action on the sidelines around SirCakez, where I believe there is a better chance of scum posturing than there is of SC being scum (by sheer probability). That's why I get suspicious of the early wagons and why I'd rather investigate the voters instead of the voted.

[GuiltyLion]

Also, NH has twice now accused SC of faking his reads:

It's because you're scum faking your reads and desperate for attention off of you.

SirCakez faked his reads

and I find that to be alarmingly uncharitable - again, it's assuming he's scum first and then making the case second.

NH - can you explain why you think his reads are fake?

[GuiltyLion]

@tojam

Can you please specify "a lot of you", because from what I saw it was a total of around 3 people.

signal boosting this, because I asked the same question to you in 183 and you didn't answer. I want this explanation as well.

[GuiltyLion]

@BBT or @GL: could you explain why agreeing with someone is scummy?

Can you show me where either of us has said that?

And can you answer the question you've dodged again?

a lot of you want either a Fire policy lynch or a Gl scum lynch

who is pushing for my lynch? Two votes on me are from RVS. NH has vocalized concerns with me but as far as I can tell they are more concerned with SirCakez.

Can you please specify "a lot of you", because from what I saw it was a total of around 3 people.

[GuiltyLion]

No. It doesn't. This allows him to attack any wagon without taking a position. He also didn't attack our wagon.

I'm not "attacking" just any wagon though, I'm pushing on the early SirCakez wagon.

This is a point about things that I could theoretically do, instead of things that I have actually done, which is the kind of argument that often comes from scum.

[GuiltyLion]

Let's discuss this, shall we?

1. I had not noticed tojam's early vote on SirCakez til this post and I went back and re-read. After seeing it and realizing that his next post is hopping from SC to you, I find this wishy-washy and certainly potential posturing against town!SirCakez. It gives me a town-lean on you and SirCakez because tojam's latest post(s?) have not changed my mind that he's scummy. Would you agree with this assessment?

2. What do you think of shaddowez' post 214? Lots of good questions and content. How does this post and other shaddowez actions fit into your posturing investigaton?

3. Since I never actually voted for SirCakez, did my exchange with him give you the impression that I was pushing him? If you have time to read all of it, what is your over-all take-away from both our stances during the exchange and how does my behavior fit into your posturing investigation?

4. This looks like possible shadow-casting. Would you agree? massive has been getting stronger on my scumdar and if SirCakez is town I definitely see the alleged posturing here.

1. I would agree with that assessment completely, but tojam has since outright claimed a PR which means he is probably town
UNVOTE:

2. 214 is a very townie-looking post - most of it aligns exactly with how I was reading things. Shaddowez is certainly not the first person I would come after for posturing, but I've also never played with or read from much from him before so I don't have any beat on how capable he is as scum.

3. Your initial exchange with him did give me the impression that you were setting yourself up to move there, particularly "I see things that are worrisome but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say if they want to look like they're scumreading someone but don't want to jump on yet while everyone else is doing their dirty work.

I also didn't understand how your question about the logical train of thought (A therefore B) would uncover anything alignment indicative, and I wanted to see where you took that, but then you dropping the conversation left the exchange overall rather null for me. Can you explain how this lead you to townread SirCakez?

4. Yes, massive is currently in my lynchpool for today

[GuiltyLion]

I'm anticipating a wagon directed at me; I don't know where that question you are talking about is GL, quote it or give a link please.

I said the reason I voted for you GL was because I agreed with BBT's analysis, so by attacking what I've said is saying I'm not allowed to agree with someone, why so?

This is incredibly frustrating to me now that I think you're town. You're not paying any attention to the game. I have literally quoted it multiple times, it was "who do you think is talking for my lynch" (as of the time you said 'a lot of you want a GL lynch').

Your question is a complete misrepresentation of why I voted you and I'm explaining myself

again

now. I was not voting you for agreeing with BBT, I was voting you for the way you phrased your suspicion of SC.

Why does it being "less than a day" matter? Is it supposed to take someone a long time to change their mind? This reads to me like someone who is trying to add an extra spin to something to make it sound scummier than it is.

That's not why I voted you. I voted you because of the way you described your vote on SC - you didn't like his change of heart in 'only less than a day'. Why do you think a quick turnaround is scummy?

[GuiltyLion]

Your phrasing was perfectly clear but now you're trying to change it. It's not 'how I'm interpreting it' it's exactly what your words were saying.

The 'as' is key, it implies you at least agree to an extent with what NH are seeing. So it's pretty scummy for you to try and turn this around to say I'm interpreting your posts incorrectly, I think you realised you couldn't respond to my post and as such needed to try and change the original meaning of what you wrote.

This is garbage. I literally explained that I did agree with what NH was seeing in that I also -see- it. I did not agree that it was necessarily scummy, especially not to the degree that NH is saying. We agree on what SirCakez did, we disagreed that it meant he was scum, and NH further polluted the read and drove me away from the wagon with 90 and 106, and making a bunch of arguments that assume SirCakez is scum first to describe his posts second ("he's asking for a bailout, he's faking his reads").

[GuiltyLion]

I could do a GL lynch. He really defended the fuck out of SC questioning that wagon (without pressuring SirCakez) and didn't question those on the toe jam wagon much. Pretty sure Dwlee is too but I am checking with him.

why would I question people that are on the wagon that I'm on? It's like you're just trying to invent inconsistencies in my play.

and again, why do you think SC is faking his reads?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: massive

[GuiltyLion]

GL, are you reading Shadow as town for 214 or is it just a townie looking post? To me, it looks like a whole load of easy questions that scum could ask and outside of that, Shadow is a non-presence. I'm also happy with your 318 as a response.

Just a townie looking post. I agree that it's conceivably fakeable from scum, but backing me up being against PLs while still saying it doesn't make you scum mirrored my own thoughts closely. However writing out that sentence makes me realize that it is actually pretty similar to exactly what I had already said in the thread.

I see Massive as town because no good reason has been provided to scumread massive and SirCakez and GL want it. GL being Mr. Repeat the same question already asked and answered three times is shitty. His response that he didn't vet his own wagon is crap too.

This is bullshit. When I question a wagon, you say I "have a reason to attack any wagon" in 245. Then when I don't question people who are on a wagon because I think it is a good wagon, you frame that as if it is scummy. You've set up a situation where you can call me scum if I push against wagons or if I don't.

This early VT claim makes me a little less sure about this wagon.

Can you explain at what point you were more sure about the wagon? Because your jump on it was extremely tentative, you said in 350 , 355, and 358, you didn't have anything really scummy from massive, but then jumped on in 360 because BBT asked you to. Immediately afterwards in 362 you were still casting doubt on the wagon.

This seems like odd phrasing to jump off, because I don't get the sense that you were sure at any point when voting him.

[GuiltyLion]

Thor - why would scum!Firebringer claim a PR on D1 at the slightest sign of pressure? What does scum gain from that? He saves himself for a day or two at most.

[GuiltyLion]

So my question back is - what has he done that remotely seems like something scum wouldn't do and why?

Also, while we're at it, what do you think of his reaction to me?
Do you see that as a town reaction of someone who felt the need to hint being a town PR?
Or do you see that as nervous scum recognizing that he is busted?

Because I know what it looks like to me, and it's so blatant I am concerned that you don't see it - so what do you see?

My thinking is that Fire isn't stupid, he knows what will draw attention to himself and what won't. If he is scum, claiming a PR early may save him from being a lynch target D1, but when D2 and D3 roll around then he's going to need to hardclaim to explain why he's alive and at that point he's likely SOL if he doesn't have a rock-solid fakeclaim. I don't see why he would resort to such a gambit so early.

Frankly I don't see anything in his ISO that scum wouldn't do, but that's kind of my problem with this wagon, if he's scum here then his survival strategy is solely to claim PR then pollute the thread with WIFOM. I would expect scum to try harder.

As far as his reaction to you, I'm also not sure that scum would encourage you to continue pushing him like he did in 435.

[GuiltyLion]

Why the naked massive vote? You were very interested in his wagon early on, then mention in 315 that he's in your lynch pool, but never really give an explanation.

I've been waiting for someone to question me about that vote actually.

I generally agree with BBT (a strong townread) that massive isn't contributing anything to advance his reads or the gamestate at large. A lot of his gameplay early on was centered around me (188, 211, 243, 247), but by the end of our back and forth I felt he was townreading me and yet not pursuing anyone else, other than pushing on Fire after his PR soft. I think he's coasting, and I also wanted to try to bait a reaction to me voting him without explaining any reasons.

Kirroha tentatively jumping on but then jumping off again at basically a moment's notice makes me lean scum on her, regardless of massive's alignment (and also gives me more reason to townread SirCakez for pointing it out). I'm keeping my vote on massive because I don't particularly like the Fire or Cakez CWs, but I'd be even happier with a kirroha wagon and I'm disappointed you moved your vote from her to Fire so quickly.

[GuiltyLion]

Cake's vote on me is gross.

why? Was it not gross when shaddowez voted you or when I voiced a desire to do so as well?

[GuiltyLion]

I would prefer a NH lynch to a Thor lynch. NH has been actively misrepping me and I feel the push on SirCakez came from a conclusion about alignment before the analysis of play (accusing SirCakez of faking his reads, asking for a bailout when pressured, etc).

Also, the inconsistency in the Fire read is noticeable too. Dwlee has been posting that Fire is obvtown, Titus is now advocating him being scum. I would expect a town hydra to come to agreement on what they think of each player and define consensus scumreads to pursue, instead of wagoning a player who one hydrahead apparently thinks is clearly town.

If NH flips scum I would say they are clearly white-knighting Thor as well, which is why I'd rather lynch NH today.
VOTE: Night Hunters

[GuiltyLion]

Guys we have one day left, can we try to come to consensus? Jeanne and zefiend slots need to join actual wagons. I'd do Thor at deadline over Fire if necessary, but I want more stances for/against the NH wagon

[GuiltyLion]

Is it too late to start an Aristophanes wagon? The way he accepts NH's claim at face value and then retroactively argues that's why he was town reading them in 607 and 613 makes me strongly believe he is scum. Also, his push on tojam in 613 feels particularly disingenuous - "giddy to kill a PR"? Where was the giddiness in tojam's posts?

VOTE: Aristophanes

I don't really like NH's claim but I agree best not to lynch for today. And if Ari flips scum I'd say they're almost cleared.

I can reluctantly do anyone at deadline including tojam but for now that wagon looks pretty yuck to me.

[GuiltyLion]

Thor - it's pretty clear Fire lynch isn't happening today, who are you willing to compromise on?

[GuiltyLion]

This tojam wagon is awful.

VOTE: tojam

Won't be back any closer to deadline, and don't want a no lynch. Claim doesn't preclude scum here.

At the time of this vote, tojam and Ari were both at L-4. Shaddowez pushed Ari for scum earlier in the day. But now he votes tojam instead.

I have a -strong- feeling tojam is going to flip town. Their intern claim feels legit (it was unprompted but ???)

-Dad

Then why the hell did you join the tojam wagon yesterday? If tojam flips town this is literally trying to get towncred off of your own wagon.

I'll hammer tojam at deadline if nothing has moved but I think that scum is driving this lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

"giddy to kill a PR"? Where was the giddiness in tojam's posts?

I want Ari to address this. Why did you say choose to say that he was "giddy" to kill a PR?

VOTE: Aristophanes

[GuiltyLion]

To prove it....

@mod Did I unknowingly target someone last night?

Because that's totally a question the Mod will answer...

Are you ignoring my question?

Though, actually, in thinking about it, the worst I could say about Ari's play is something I could also say about both the people voting him.

No idea what this is supposed to mean, can you explain? My vote isn't naked, I posted my thoughts D1 - I found Ari's claim that he recognized NH as a PR from their "softing" dubious, and then his explanation for his vote on tojam incredibly scummy. My biggest problem is with how he said "tojam is giddy to kill a PR [referring to his NH vote]", which looks to me like what scum would say when they're trying to push a wagon through. There's no natural reason to describe tojam's play that way, it's pure embellishment.

[GuiltyLion]

Well, scratch that. Lynch me.

What is the point to saying this? What was your goal here?

[GuiltyLion]

I am thinking about these claims. I agree with NH that three blocks in a night is highly unlikely. I am not ascetic.

So there are three major pieces of information here.

1. Fire claims to be JKer who visited Jeanne.
2. NH claims to be a tracker that was blocked last night, but also claims to know by mod-error that shaddowez went nowhere.
3. shaddowez claims to have attempted to visit me and gotten blocked.

So if we are to believe that there are fewer than three RBers, one of Fire/NH/shaddowez must be lying. I think one of NH/Fire is probably lying, as I don't think it makes sense to have both a town JKer and a town Tracker in a hood, and I also strongly doubt shaddowez would invent a roleblocked claim here.

[GuiltyLion]

Jeanne, did you intentionally ignore my question? Why are you saying you want to be lynched?

(also why is friggin everyone ignoring my questions this game)

[GuiltyLion]

The neighborhood started at the start of last night, is working during the day and has the neighborizer in it.

Given this, shaddowez's neighborizer claim makes no sense

VOTE: shaddowez

[GuiltyLion]

^btw

this is L-1

, apologies for not announcing it earlier. On reread I realized I miscounted votes, thought I was making it L-2

[GuiltyLion]

scum having a BP is interesting. That would suggest either a vig or an SK.

shaddowez townflip makes me think that the other neighborizer is probably scum.

GL, why are you ascetic?

I'm not ascetic. I don't know why you keep saying this. Explain your accusation, cause where I'm sitting this looks like the third mislynch you're trying to push this game.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Aristophanes

this lynch should've happened D1

[GuiltyLion]

No there isn't.

We have to explain how Shaddowez didn't neighborize GL.

We were blocked.

Two blockers exist or GL is ascetic.

shaddowez was clearly roleblocked.

The fact that you pushed him over this, and are now pushing me because "i must be ascetic", while also claiming no track results this entire game, makes me think there's one scum roleblocker and they're on your team.

problem solved!

P-edit: yeah Fire that makes a lot of sense to me here

[GuiltyLion]

He or GL would be the lynches for today.

how about you tell the class why you haven't voted or pushed on Aristophanes once this game, despite continually including him in your scumpool?

[GuiltyLion]

@Fire/@GL, Why aren't you two investigating each other?

what do you mean by this

[GuiltyLion]

SirCakez it's because NH is scum

claims to scumread Aristophanes, still won't join a wagon on him, instead trying to foster discord between Fire/myself who are both pushing Aristophanes.

[GuiltyLion]

shaddow claimed to have visited guiltylion but didnt neighborize them which means they're ascetic

No it doesn't, I'm not ascetic. The fact that you keep repeating this (and were doing it yesterday before shaddowez even flipped) basically confirms you as scum IMO. We don't know that you were blocked, you are the only source of this claim, and even if it's true that a town!tracker!NH was blocked for two consecutive nights, then there would be other scenarios that you are not considering, such as:

1) Fire could be a scum RBer
2) Even if Fire is town JKer, there are plenty of possible explanations where shaddowez could have been blocked without me being ascetic. Bus Driver, Redirector, etc

The only reason you have for pushing me is "oh he's ascetic because shaddowez says he targeted him and was blocked", which is just a train wreck of poor assumptions and opportunism.

[GuiltyLion]

I'd also like to mention that we've been signing our posts mom and dad since almost the beginning which we would only do when that is our flavor because of ~counterclaims~ and so we should be pretty much confirmed town.

lmao

[GuiltyLion]

Because I

knew they were sifting a PR from the get go with their "Mom" and "Dad" post signing

. I had them as a strong townread because of this and due to their play!

Let's not forget this post

[GuiltyLion]

Honestly Dwlee, you seem so right on your reads on some people its been making me think you are informed scum.

Speaking of this, I just remembered this:

I have a -strong- feeling tojam is going to flip town. Their intern claim feels legit (it was unprompted but ???)

-Dad

Like this is transparently obviously scum. Dwlee posted this

while they were on the tojam wagon

.

[GuiltyLion]

So why did you feel the need to express to the public thread that you thought tojam was town, and yet not the need to tell Titus to vote Aristophanes or any other viable D1 wagons?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't believe you were blocked. It's an easy excuse to explain why you're still alive. Why would scum RB shaddowez instead of an outed tracker?

So you whiteknighted your own wagon. Never seen that one before.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't believe you were blocked. It's an easy excuse to explain why you're still alive. Why would scum RB shaddowez instead of an outed tracker?

So you whiteknighted your own wagon. Never seen that one before.

This is

exactly

why I think you're scum.

You're not answering the question put to you but invalidating it. Try answering my question instead of just dismissing the premise.

I mean the question is very transparently intended to create a narrative that I fundamentally disagree with.

But for the sake of entertaining you, here's an easy answer.

Scum RBer targets NH
Redirector sends Fire to shaddowez

two blocks explained without me being ascetic. Like this should be obvious if you were genuinely considering all possibilities.

[GuiltyLion]

guilty lion is pretty much confirmed mafia

this Ari flip is going to sink you given his interactions with you and how you've avoided his wagon all game

[GuiltyLion]

P.S. he was supposed to vote GL and never appeared.

Fire can you talk to me about this? A loose paraphrase of what's going on in your hood would be useful here

[GuiltyLion]

That seems like way too much blocking power if it is a regular setup.
So either FB lied, GL is Ascetic, or we are in full multiball.
I don't think FB lies right now. So we need to flip GL and find out wtf is going on here!

Why aren't you considering the equally likely possibility that NH lied? Like they're claiming a tracker with no results that lived into D3

Hmmm

[GuiltyLion]

I see no outstanding reason to believe NH is town

[GuiltyLion]

Like try to quote one of their pushes that is clearly town motivated

[GuiltyLion]

From where I'm sitting I see two mislynches on PRs, along with a Fire push in tandem with scum!Thor, and a push on me based off of nothing but claims about setup spec that are tied fundamentally to their own claim.

And that looks town to you

[GuiltyLion]

Since we have just over two days to deadline and you already have votes, sure.

VOTE: Thor

You sheepy scum? Thor is obvtown and you've piled on almost every wagon.

Oh and look, here's a chainsaw against town voting scum

[GuiltyLion]

oh look, here's NH jumping off the bus at the nearest opportunity.

Explain why am I "more definitively" scum than Ari. Ari's role is functionally a counterclaim to an already flipped town role.

[GuiltyLion]

because I'm not ascetic holy shit

explain how I am more scum than a neighborizer after we already have a flipped town neighborizer

explain why two claimed PRs are both alive on D3 after outing on D1

[GuiltyLion]

Like fire is claiming to have been role blocked in addition to yourself and you are going after me instead of him because you think I'm an easier mislynch than a claimed PR

[GuiltyLion]

The only thing keeping me from voting NH at this point is that Ari is already basically confirmed scum by setup

[GuiltyLion]

I see two possible worlds:

1. Firebringer is a scum RBer and there's another RBer who has been keeping silent (town or scum, would probably be scum at this point for not speaking up)

This is the world we are in if you are town

2. Firebringer is town JKer, and there's a single scum RBer who is on the same team as you

This is the world we are in if you are scum

Given everyone's play, world 2 is far more appealing to me than world 1. Neither you nor Fire has died. Unless scumteam has two RBers, I can't imagine why this would be the case if you were both town. You're avoiding a wagon on obvscum, who is also townreading you for no apparent reason. You're pushing me instead of Fire, despite Titus calling Fire for scum D1 (with Thor), and Fire almost certainly being scum in a world where you were town.

And now you're just trying to reach out to me since I've highlighted all the problems with your play. It didn't work in HR:HR and it's not gonna work now.

[GuiltyLion]

GL: Why does scum-Aristophanes neighborize scum-NH?

Maybe they don't have day talk? If Fire is town, it would kind of make sense to me to keep him alive in a hood with two scum to make sure they know who's safe to carry out a kill and manipulate him. But this is actually a great point, I feel that a neighborize would be better used on a town player. That's why Ari should be the lynch today as opposed to NH.

As a counterpoint, do you think it's likely that there would be two town neighborizers?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: GuiltyLion
If this is town then 99% sure NH is scum.

holy shit this just tanked you on my reads. You're gonna have to give actual reasons for voting me instead of using me as a lynch to try to sort another player.

[GuiltyLion]

What I'm failing to understand is why NH can't believe that FB could be scum if FB is lying about his role/who he blocked as scum blocker. Am I missing something or is it not possible where NH and GL are both town?

^This

The fact that NH isn't considering it at all is what bothers me about their play. And they're trying to push me based off ascetic-spec, which I know to be 100% false, instead of lynching Ari, and they started this yesterday before shaddowez flip even happened

[GuiltyLion]

like if I were ascetic scum, I would have just claimed it when shaddowez said he tried to neighborize me

scum!GL gains nothing by lying about not being ascetic, and instead I have 3 people voting me solely because of this

[GuiltyLion]

Ok, totally abusing mod error here.

1) I assumed we were roleblocked given we were an outed tracker and got no result (explicitly).
2) The mod changed our result to Shaddowez went nowhere. This tells me that we were not likely blocked but the mod change was due to error in blocking.

3) The mod then told us again that we got no result. This change back suggests that Shaddowez is an ascetic.

VOTE: Shaddowez

Shaddowez's responses today all suggested someone who knew he wasn't tracked today. First implying I had nothing on him, trying to discredit our result from a place of knowledge. His whole exchange reeks of you have nothing.

He doesn't even vote GL when I make it apparent that the most likelihood is that someone is lying.

He claims vague investigator, somewhat counterclaiming us but never claims the type of investigator.


There is a chance Shaddowez could have just known I was blocked and the mod double fucked up on roleblocker as well.

Either way, right now I'm thinking Jeanne Shaddowez and one of Fire/Ari.

Cakes, do not hammer. Kirroha hammers or he's the lynch tomorrow.

This isn't complicated at all.

There's a hood. It was started by a day neighborizer. When pressured, Shaddowez claimed neighborizer that failed.

For Shadowez and myself to be town, town must have a roleblocker that targeted myself or Shadowez. (Even if you suppose Fire's a lying scumfuck that targeted one of us, you would still need a town roleblocker to block the other). None have come forward.

GL being ascetic with the neighborizer here being scum which nets a two for one in the rare event Shadow does flip town.

Shadow not providing reads is also pretty scummy. He leaves, knowing he's near hammer and just says no reads.

I really suggest everyone read these posts again.

NH is pushing this "ascetic" crap for a second mislynch, and continually laying the seeds to lynch me on it D3 as well.

They repeatedly acknowledge that the other neighborizer is basically confirmed scum, but won't join the Ari wagon today and is instead pushing a mislynch on me. To me it looks transparently planned.

[GuiltyLion]

explain how I am more scum than a neighborizer after we already have a flipped town neighborizer

I want this question answered by anyone voting me (except Aristo, obviously)

voting me is basically a scumclaim

[GuiltyLion]

@SirCakez

From where I'm sitting I see two mislynches on PRs, along with a Fire push in tandem with scum!Thor, and a push on me based off of nothing but claims about setup spec that are tied fundamentally to their own claim.

And that looks town to you

also, answer the question about Ari

[GuiltyLion]

Aristo should fullclaim with flavor I think.

Would this change your read? What new information does this bring?

I think the game is stalling because scum is avoiding the Aristo wagon. If he were town he'd be (mis)lynched by now. His role is literally a counterclaim to a flipped town role.

[GuiltyLion]

how?

Explain

[GuiltyLion]

how?

Explain

If the claim looks legit then my read would adjust for that obviously (._. )

Aristo should fullclaim with flavor I think.

I'm the University Acapella Group!
Each day I recruit two people to sing with me.

That's why I posted a song from Pitch Perfect as my first post in the Neighbourhood thread, Fire & NH.

Like this seems legit to me tbh.

This makes absolutely no sense to me.

What about this claim is impossible to come from scum!neighborizer Aristophanes? What is a "legit" town flavor?

And in general - ignoring the context of this game and Ari's claim - mods provide fakeclaims to scum

all the time

. The only claim that matters is role. Flavor is always going to be solely smoke and mirrors, and I don't like how you're using it as an excuse for not voting or scumreading Aristophanes. If you're townreading him by play, then make that case, but there's nothing in a flavorclaim that can only come from a town alignment. It looks like you're reaching for reasons to not vote him today.

[GuiltyLion]

Shadow is a flipped neighbourizer, I am a neighbourizer as well.
NH is a claimed Tracker
FB is a claimed JK

GL is assumed to be scum due to night action results.
N1 NH was blocked. Fire JK'd Jeanne (you). Shadow claims to have been blocked.
This is too much blocking power, thus the assumption of both multiball and GL or FB scum.
Either FB lied about his block, GL is Aescetic (thus no neighbourization), or an unknown third blocking role blocked Shadow.
This means we can assume the blockers to be at least partially scum aligned, as there are too many of them to all be town.

Or here's the explanation that accounts for the fact that I'm not ascetic:

NH is lying scum
FB is town JK

N1 NH was not blocked, Shadow was blocked.
(as an aside, LOL at Ari saying Shadow "claimed" to be blocked when shadow is flipped town)
N2 NH was not blocked, Fire was blocked - which is why Thor was killed.

The only reason there is all this confusing crap about ascetics and multiple blockers is because NH is claiming to be a D1 outed Tracker with no results that is still alive in D3.

Town!JKer Fire and scum!NH is a tremendously simpler explanation than a world with two scum blockers or one scum blocker in addition to me also being ascetic-scum that lied about it the whole game.

The wrench in my thinking here is I have literally no idea what the fuck SirCakez is doing.

[GuiltyLion]

So, you think Our Parents are aligned with Crippling Debt??

Why not? Is there some rule in Aero's posts that I missed that proves that they can't be?

I believe 100% that they are a PR.

Which you've never explained, btw. You've been pressured

repeatedly

since D1, to answer for this:

Because I knew they were sifting a PR from the get go with their "Mom" and "Dad" post signing. I had them as a strong townread because of this and due to their play!

Signing posts with "Mom" and "Dad" is not at all a reason to believe that they are a PR.

[GuiltyLion]

GL if you're so sure NH is scum why are you voting Ari?

Because I'm even more sure about Ari and because I have only one vote

[GuiltyLion]

Scum have literally no reason to avoid my wagon.

The counterclaim rhetoric is too easy to push and is a legitimate concern. I'd expect they would be all over that! It lets them legitimately look like they're scumhunting and they can always go "but he should have flipped scum!" as a defense when I don't.

This post makes no sense considering I feel like I'm fighting tooth and nail to get him lynched

Look at D1 and D2 again. NH and Thor avoid his wagon like the plague.

[GuiltyLion]

GL, FB, I've got a deal for you.
I'll compromise on an NH lynch today.

If they flip town, we lynch GL tomorrow.
If they flip scum, we lynch me tomorrow.

Thoughts?

If you can get the votes on NH then I'll go there but I'm thinking this is just wine for after your flip

[GuiltyLion]

i'm just waiting for Ari to get hammered

[GuiltyLion]

It also makes me feel really uncomfortable about how "confused" players are jumping at this 1 v 1.

Who were you referring to here?

I think zefiend and Nahdia are both town. Did either of you get scum vibes from SirCakez opening post today? The "not sure if MyLo or not" feels fake.

I can see scum!massive but it's mostly by proxy of him coasting all game. He's in my lynchpool but SirCakez's "yeah sure" attitude makes me hesitate.

NH

- read on massive? Why didn't you respond to Nahdia suggesting to lynch him?

[GuiltyLion]

SirCakez can you walk me through why your read on NH went from scum to town over the first three days, and where it stands now

[GuiltyLion]

fine with NL as well, would like answers from NH/SC first though

[GuiltyLion]

prodge, friend is visiting and work has been busy so I haven't had much time for mafia, aiming to get to this tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

actually I lied ignore the prodge, I have a few minutes now and the catch up was quick

I think the best play here is to let everyone say whatever they want to say and then no-lynch.

NH didn't answer my question about their read on massive so I'm gonna quote it again:

NH

- read on massive? Why didn't you respond to Nahdia suggesting to lynch him?

Don't like how NH jumped on my question about SC meant for Nahdia/zefiend either. With respect to your Nahdia/SirCakez theory in 1359 - explain why you're scumreading Nahdia? That Jeanne wagon looks a lot worse in hindsight (with Thor on it), and I think Nahdia looks town.

[GuiltyLion]

I can go more in detail when I get home but basically I hated their entire push on me because it was full of misrep (faking my reads for example) but

then once they moved past me they improved

.

Can you be more specific about this bolded part, when "they improved"? Which posts and when?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm going to repeat these questions AGAIN towards NH/SC, I see only scum motivation for ignoring them at this point

NH didn't answer my question about their read on massive so I'm gonna quote it again:

NH

- read on massive? Why didn't you respond to Nahdia suggesting to lynch him?

Don't like how NH jumped on my question about SC meant for Nahdia/zefiend either. With respect to your Nahdia/SirCakez theory in 1359 - explain why you're scumreading Nahdia? That Jeanne wagon looks a lot worse in hindsight (with Thor on it), and I think Nahdia looks town.

I can go more in detail when I get home but basically I hated their entire push on me because it was full of misrep (faking my reads for example) but

then once they moved past me they improved

.

Can you be more specific about this bolded part, when "they improved"? Which posts and when?

[GuiltyLion]

sorry i haven't put like, a huge amount of thought into this game. but maybe not overthinking will make me better. if we're not NL'ing, I'm probably voting GuiltyLion. who else would you recommend for the chopping block?

if your conclusion is that you want to vote me then you need to think harder about this game

[GuiltyLion]

GL, why the wakeup call on SirCakey?

I think zefiend/Nahdia are town

Therefore scumteam is in NH/massive/SC

I don't like how SirCakez is pushing you after townreading you in D2/D3. The read doesn't really seem like a natural progression to me. And I don't think generally he's been a proactive scumhunter this game. Instead of interacting with players directly, he seems to instead look at groups of people arguing and then arbitrarily picks someone in the group as scum. His scumread on me felt like it was a "you have the highest chance of getting lynched" scumread.

Do you agree with this assessment?

[GuiltyLion]

NH is obvious town but I guess we're insisting on NL'ing and just letting them die so I don't have much to say.

How is NH obvious town? He is literally the most suspicious player in this game right now.

Their efforts to solve the game are blatantly genuine.

Would you still feel this way if I could somehow prove to you that I'm not ascetic?

Clearly I can't do that, but FMPOV their "efforts" all hinge on explaining set-up spec and night actions that all stem from their own claim about being a RB'd tracker. I rarely see them actually attempting to sort by play, outside of D1. I see them pushing mislynch after mislynch, and avoiding the wagon on obvscum!Ari for as long as possible, instead pushing me. It's baffling to me that you call them "obvious town".

[GuiltyLion]

Anyway, I think we're just talking in circles at this point

VOTE: no lynch

Let me know if you have any questions directed at me or if I missed some.

[GuiltyLion]

Ari wasn't group scum FTR. GL being town explains why both lynches stalled out. Scum didn't really have a preference.

Do you think scum would want an SK alive or want them dead? Do you think anyone knew Ari was SK?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't believe I ever claimed: I'm a CS Major, VT.

I agree that NH claiming that Fire must have lied somewhere is ridiculous.

zefiend, what's your read on Cakez? We need to be looking at teams at this point, and I'm thinking it's either NH/Cakez or NH/massive

With respect to setup spec, we know scum have a roleblocker and a BP, and that there was a SK. Is that balanced against BP-with-enabler/Neighborizer/JK/Backup *and* a Tracker? Like Nahdia was the first VT that flipped this game, I can't believe that there would still be more PRs alive.

[GuiltyLion]

Cakez, when did you think I had claimed?

[GuiltyLion]

If that's the case, how on earth do you get to NH-scum? It would seem to me that, if you believe NH-scum, there's no real reason to believe there's a scum-RB.

Shaddowez and Fire both claimed to be roleblocked.

Are you paying attention? I can't imagine how you'd forget that if you were trying to solve the game

[GuiltyLion]

titus is yet to read but they told me they wouldn't cry if I voted zefiend ;D

Ew

zefiend is literally the towniest player to me right now

[GuiltyLion]

Pls what? Why is zefiend scum?

[GuiltyLion]

I didn't forget. I asked "where's the proof?" I'm pretty sure mathematically it's been proven that Fire at least lied about N1, which means that both he and Shaddowez can be explained by Fire's own "results." Or do you think Fire was telling the truth? If you do, why is NH claiming Fire lied just "ridiculous" (1519) and not flat out scummy?

How has it been proven that Fire lied? Walk me through that one.

NH claiming that Fire lied IS ridiculous. It's rejecting information coming from a proven town in order to justify their own claim. It should be obvious to you that that's scummy, I don't know why you're acting like I'm supposed to explicitly state as much.

[GuiltyLion]

zefiend, why are you town reading NH just because they are "consistent" in their claim and their frustration? I find scum is usually more consistent than town, both in projected persona and content.

Also you're claiming that I'm both ascetic and there's a role blocker? How does that make sense? Shaddowez being role blocked fits if you assume NH is not actually a tracker. Otherwise I don't know why scum would let NH get a free action, if they were town.

[GuiltyLion]

can't I make the exact same argument about myself and not lynching you? Are you referring to yesterday when NoLynch was the optimal play, or the day before when we lynched SK!Ari? I don't see how "not lynching gl" (even though I'm not sure you would've been able to do that anyway) makes you town.

Also

V/LA until Monday

, I'm going to Coachella. I may be able to mobile post in the mornings, but no promises

[GuiltyLion]

massive/gl or massive/cakez?
~Dwlee

At what point did massive become a scumread? town!NH would be considering a GL/SC team here, no?

zefiend, what do you think about the fact that NH starts town reading you as soon as you stop scum reading them? Their play is completely survivalist. NH is scum and my vote will be on them today

[GuiltyLion]

Also: Why does town reading someone for reevaluating a read (something scum don't have much motivation to do at this point in the game with titus and I's slot) = survivalism?

When zefiend was scumreading you, you scumread him and talk about voting him. Then when he townreads you, suddenly you townread him in return. It reads to me like you're dropping the need to crossvote as soon as it no longer looks like he may vote you, like your original scumread was out of necessity rather than a genuine belief in him being scum.

[GuiltyLion]

The town players aren't really helping

Who are you referring to here?

There are 4 days left and I'm getting the sense that you're stalling it out. Do you still think SC is scum? Do you think NH is town?

[GuiltyLion]

Also: Why does town reading someone for reevaluating a read (something scum don't have much motivation to do at this point in the game with titus and I's slot) = survivalism?

When zefiend was scumreading you, you scumread him and talk about voting him. Then when he townreads you, suddenly you townread him in return. It reads to me like you're dropping the need to crossvote as soon as it no longer looks like he may vote you, like your original scumread was out of necessity rather than a genuine belief in him being scum.

This is interesting, but what worries me is that you insinuate that a cross vote would have happened between me and NH. That sure as hell would not and will not ever happen, because you have called me town already and SirCakez currently has his sights on a NH/massive team. It is painfully obvious to anyone reading this game that scum!me does not back off NH if at least one townie is strongly supporting voting him.

So you wouldn't have voted NH if they voted you? Dwlee was threatening to do it early in the day, that's why I thought it could have happened.

What's your definition of cross vote? I was using it in the sense of what normally happens in LYLO when two players vote each other, the cross vote coming immediately after the first vote, because if it's a TvT vote then the game is already lost at that point.

[GuiltyLion]

Thor - why would scum!Firebringer claim a PR on D1 at the slightest sign of pressure? What does scum gain from that? He saves himself for a day or two at most.

GL -- you said this about Firebringer but it obviously applies to NH as well. Can you answer your own question?

There were important differences in how they claimed. Fire claimed PR incredibly early in the day, before there was even a substantial wagon on him, and he didn't claim a specific role.

NH claimed tracker as the day was winding down when they were much closer to being lynched. I've seen scum!Titus do this before (it was a blitz game, I can dig it up when I get on a computer), she claimed Cop in an open setup when she was at L-1 with a day until deadline. In a closed setup I would guess she would not at all hesitate to fakeclaim a PR to save herself, whereas Fire wasn't even remotely close to being lynched yet.

[GuiltyLion]

I haven't even voted lol

That's the point. You hadn't. If you were town, scum would have voted given the strength of your read that never waivered.

Can you explain this? I'm not following the logic here - who would scum be voting?

It looks to me like this is where we are at:

SC/GL want to vote NH
NH/Massive want to vote SC
Not sure who zefiend wants to vote

If zefiend is town, we should be okay here (in terms of no quicklynches) as long as the team isn't SC/massive. If zefiend is scum then this is an auto win for scum as it stands.

[GuiltyLion]

lol if this page isn't the fakest shit I've ever seen

VOTE: Night Hunters

[GuiltyLion]

Also zefiend will be basically conftown if neither SC/massive is quick lynched. Looks like that will throw Titus' cake/zefiend theory out the window

[GuiltyLion]

I'm p sure it's NH/massive, so up to you Cakez/zefiend. NH/Cakez is a slightly less probable team, I'd put it at 20%, but their interactions all game read closer to TvS than SvS

[GuiltyLion]

Zefiend, it should really be clear but I'll put it another way.

1) Scum need only one townie to vote to win.
2) If a town was tunneling another townie to the point of no return, scum have no reason to vote the townie to get the ball moving. It reinforces the mistaken townie AND likely triggers the townie to vote incorrectly.
3) SirCakez and GL have been posturing voting us. If either were town, the scum in Massive/Zefiend would have voted us ages ago.

I strongly prefer Cakey as I had minor doubts on GL until the recent exchanges where he failed to grab the basic concept here AND he failed to ask. When you were tunneling us, and GL then floated a vote there, it felt icky but I just didn't see the pattern.

Failed to ask? Does 1682 suddenly not count as asking?

Your logic would hold up here except it also assumes you are town, so

[GuiltyLion]

"really fucking hard", "insanely so", "if you were town you would have done this"

This is how scum pushes mislynches. Overloaded language and hypotheticals

[GuiltyLion]

Like I strongly encourage everyone to reread my ISO and see just how "fucking hard" I defended SC.

It's not arguing over personality, it's a common scumtell. Scum exaggerate to manipulate townies into thinking non-indicative things are actually indicative.

[GuiltyLion]

^because they're scum desperate to stall this out or survive

Will you be around at deadline to put your vote back? Same question to zefiend. We have less than 4 hours now.

[GuiltyLion]

It's been fun but I'm VLA for the next few hours.

The only acceptable votes to us are SirCakey and GL.

~Titus

[GuiltyLion]

like seriously, I have to fight hard as shit to get obvscum!Ari lynched over myself, now suddenly I have to fight hard as shit to get obvscum!NH lynched this close to deadline?

Dwlee just townspews whoever's townreading him - with no consistency between him and Titus - and then falls back to "i'm obvtown" whenever he's questioned.

[GuiltyLion]

So, GL is claiming that he's hardly defended you if he did at all. That's not accurate. That's someone avoiding being called out for bullshit. You should realize that if you're town.

WOW talk about misreps

I'm claiming that to say I defended SC "really fucking hard" or "insanely so" is not accurate. It's all about

how

you're selling your narrative, it's completely embellished. You're exaggerating the extent to which I defended him to make it look like we are a team (a line of reasoning you're now abandoning ). Obviously I did push against the early SC wagon, but to the degree that you implied that I did? Absolutely not.

[GuiltyLion]

I found Ari's claim that he recognized NH as a PR from their "softing" dubious, and then his explanation for his vote on tojam incredibly scummy. My biggest problem is with how he said "tojam is giddy to kill a PR [referring to his NH vote]",

which looks to me like what scum would say when they're trying to push a wagon through. There's no natural reason to describe tojam's play that way, it's pure embellishment

.

OH LOOK THAT'S EXACTLY HOW I CAUGHT SCUM ARISTOPHANES TOO

[GuiltyLion]

You went

for pages

about how Cakey couldn't be scum despite his transparently fake read Day 1 on our slot

show me

the pages

show me "the pages" of posts about how I said Cakez couldn't be scum

[GuiltyLion]

dude ari was sk, he wasn't group scum and therefore was scumhunting naturally.

It's not about "scumhunting", it's about the level of conviction displayed in your pushes.

Town always have a level of doubt, and rethink and take an objective view of things. They have no incentive to exaggerate.

Scum on the other hand, even if 3rd party solo scum, feel the need to "prove" their towniness and thus tend to express an extra level of conviction in their reads and their pushes, to make them seem more genuine and make their logic seem stronger than it is. In doing so, they often exaggerate non-indicative things, just as Ari did and just as you are now doing.

[GuiltyLion]

zefiend I don't see why you're forcing me to bet this game on choosing correctly between SC/massive when NH is transparently obvious scum

p-edit: ugh fuck this

[GuiltyLion]

actually zefiend has expressed willingness to lynch all three of myself, SC, and massive in the past few hours

is a zefiend/NH team possible

SC don't vote yet. you voted massive earlier and I want to see if NH/zefiend got ruled out in that time period

[GuiltyLion]

hmm, zefiend had one post while SC was sitting on massive, and NH was posting at the same time

if scum have daytalk that would have been a quickhammer by a hypothetical NH/zefiend team

if scum don't have daytalk, it may have been too difficult to coordinate as SC was also still active

gonna say zefiend is still probably town here

[GuiltyLion]

I will hammer massive at deadline if NH lynch is impossible, but blaming zefiend/massive for loss if this is a mislynch

[GuiltyLion]

like literally zefiend you keep posting all these great reasons for scum!NH and then being like "I WILL LYNCH ANYONE ELSE" with an hour left to make this decision

[GuiltyLion]

do we try to wait 30 minutes for him to show up or should I just hammer?

[GuiltyLion]

Yes because I believe that lynching you, SC, or massive has a better chance of hitting scum than lynching NH.

Yes and this belief is terrible and will likely cost us the game

[GuiltyLion]

like even if massive flips scum the game is still lost at this point in a zefiend-NH-GL LYLO

when have I avoided talking about choosing between SC and massive? Throughout D4 and D5 I pushed SC and I pushed massive to get better reads on them. I think massive is more likely scum but I'm less confident in that read than I am in the scum!NH read

[GuiltyLion]

because NH/SC team is more likely than NH town, but we can argue that postgame if that's the case

because you've flat out stated repeatedly today that you don't want to lynch NH, therefore it'd be stupid of NH to kill you tonight if it's not an NH/SC team

anyway
VOTE: massive

p-edit: does it have to be NH + one of them? I'm not sure that it does, but NH has been calling me scum all game so

[GuiltyLion]

explain

[GuiltyLion]

you're forgetting Aero's post, one sec

[GuiltyLion]

Let's just be clear here. If there is/was a tracker in the game, they would receive NO RESULT if the player tracked is role blocked. They would also receive NO RESULT if the player is jail kept. If the player does not visit anyone, they would receive PLAYER DID NOT VISIT ANYBODY. Finally, if the tracker was blocked, then the tracker would receive NO RESULT

IF NH is tracker, then shaddowez being blocked would explain "two RBs"

the problem was I don't see why shaddowez would have been blocked, and NH never brought this up themselves

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: SirCakez

LOL, you went for the early bus because you knew the towncred here would still win you the game. town!SC wouldn't hop between massive/NH so casually, I should have known something was off when you pushed for either lynch.

I'm going to Europe for 2 weeks on the 9th, so I'll be V/LA after that. I'll stick with it to finish this game out, but my ability to post will fall off substantially starting next week, so zefiend it would help me a lot if we make the most of the next 3-4 days. I know you said earlier there was 100% scum in NH/GL - honestly, I would have agreed at the time. But if you still believe that it's gonna cost us the game

[GuiltyLion]

I wasn't speaking about you specifically, just that your behavior from a town!slot could only be consistent with someone who was certain in a NH/massive team. It makes far more sense now coming from a scumbuddy with massive

[GuiltyLion]

also wow you are always scum when we play together, huh

[GuiltyLion]

the only way you and NH were both town is if Fire lied which I highly doubt

No, this is a false notion that I've figured out.

Aero's post:

Let's just be clear here. If there is/was a tracker in the game, they would receive NO RESULT if the player tracked is role blocked. They would also receive NO RESULT if the player is jail kept. If the player does not visit anyone, they would receive PLAYER DID NOT VISIT ANYBODY. Finally, if the tracker was blocked, then the tracker would receive NO RESULT

Obviously you must have blocked shaddowez N1 and Fire N2, who just happened to be the track targets both times. The ascetic push on me never made any sense which is why I was so certain NH was scum

[GuiltyLion]

In fact, as I reread shaddowez's ISO, it fits perfectly:

It definitely feels like Cake is White Knighting massive based on his willingness/joking regarding the NH and Jeanne wagons.

You have no scum reads, and don't want to continue wagoning people....yep, I'm good with this wagon.

VOTE: SirCakez

SC - Do you have anything new to contribute? Basically every post of your since 180 has been repeating yourself (which you say in your posts) or asking for other people's opinions on NH. Do you have any other reads?

shaddowez was pushing you early for a lot of D1, which would explain why a scumteam with SC would block him.

Also I found this when digging through his ISO:

Thor is obvtown precisely for his Fire push. Scum Thor could easily justify jumping on Cakes or massive, instead he pushes Fire. Unless his team is SirCakez and massive, Thor is town.

lmao

[GuiltyLion]

You seem to have a lot of knowledge about the scum roleblocks huh?

zefiend I hope you can see through this shit

[GuiltyLion]

To be SC+massive means you and NH are town. Only way that's possible is if both NH and shadowez were independently blocked. NH probably by the scum blocker and shadowez by Firebringer (who claimed to have blocked Jeanne).

BECAUSE I'VE BEEN SAYING THE WHOLE GAME THAT THERE IS 100% PROBABILITY OF SCUM IN NH/GL UNLESS FB LIED.

If FB didn't lie, SC gets the hammer. If FB did lie, then fuck him and this game.

These two posts probably. SC already made the "FB didn't lie" point

[GuiltyLion]

But this quote contradicts your general sentiment throughout the game that "why wasn't a tracker (NH) blocked?" Explain.

I was arguing why wasn't the tracker killed, since they were claiming throughout to be blocked. The problem was other players were also claiming blocked.

I didn't see a reason why scum would target someone other than an outed tracker on D1 with a NK/RB, and I knew shaddowez wasn't lying about being blocked as soon as I saw his flip. Then Fire claimed to have jailed Thor and been blocked, and NH kept pushing the two blockers or GL!ascetic angle, and since I'm not ascetic the simplest explanation was that one of the blocks was made up since the shaddowez/Fire blocks were confirmed

As for why they were left alive, I didn't consider the possibility of a ninja

[GuiltyLion]

I meant I highly doubted Fire lied. Fire could have lied and GL still be scum, they aren't linked now that the weird Tracker rules have been clarified.

Speaking about that, and since NH is conf-tracker, can you please detail what you think N1 and N2 looked like? Please include names, roles, and targets. I'm still trying to apply the unconventional roleblocking/tracker mechanics to this game.

@GL I would appreciate if you did this too.

I think it went down like this:

N1
SirCakez blocks shaddowez
shaddowez attempts to neighborize GL (fails)
NH tracks shaddowez (no result)
Fire JKs Jeanne

N2
SirCakez blocks Fire
Fire JKs Thor (fails)
NH tracks Fire (no result)

So there was one blocker throughout targeting other players, and scum weren't worried about NH's tracks because massive was making the kills. This explains why NH thought there were two blocks in play and why they were left alive for so long

[GuiltyLion]

[GuiltyLion]

I was adamant about lynching Aristo because he was

obvious

scum, both by play and by role. I had him pegged D1. I think SirCakez wanted to keep him alive because he knew Artisto would get lynched eventually and Aristo was going to kill me that night.

Also I was not largely distant towards massive. I started a huge wagon on him D1 with BBT. The problem with his slot was that it was so lurky that I couldn't get a solid read on him one way or the other, and then I felt NH was scum and wound up spending most of the game fighting with them.

[GuiltyLion]

p r o d g e b o y s

is any wagon ever pointless?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm town because I got a green role pm. I think it would help if you asked me more questions about things I did that you in particular find scummy or can't understand. Anything else I post pushing SirCakez or advocating for why I'm town is just gonna be exactly what I would also post if I were mafia here.

[GuiltyLion]

What argument are you asking me to make, exactly? If there's some magical townie post that would convince you of my alignment, what would stop scum!me from making it?

My point was that your 1900 asking "tell me why you're town" is a useless question. If anything, I would probably bullshit an answer much harder if I were scum. I personally think my efforts to game solve speak for themselves, but I'm happy to answer any and all questions about my play that you might have.

Again, tell me what you're missing and I'll try to help. Where do you see honest efforts to sort people in SirCakez's ISO? I made a post at some point yesterday describing why his play is scummy and I still think it fits, I'll dig it up for you.

[GuiltyLion]

GL, why the wakeup call on SirCakey?

I think zefiend/Nahdia are town

Therefore scumteam is in NH/massive/SC

I don't like how SirCakez is pushing you after townreading you in D2/D3. The read doesn't really seem like a natural progression to me. And I don't think generally he's been a proactive scumhunter this game. Instead of interacting with players directly, he seems to instead look at groups of people arguing and then arbitrarily picks someone in the group as scum. His scumread on me felt like it was a "you have the highest chance of getting lynched" scumread.

Do you agree with this assessment?

here

[GuiltyLion]

also ftr I think my scum game in lylo is pretty good, I won the past (and only) two LyLos I was in as scum (although both games were Newbies). So yes, I could fake a "why are you town" post if I needed to

[GuiltyLion]

GL you missed the point of the question entirely. Obviously just quoting a post and saying "here, this is why I'm town" renders my question pointless.

The point of the question is to see HOW people respond to the question, and HOW they shape the argument that they're town in conjunction with the posts they dig up.

You failed to do both. Thanks for ruining it.

I'll get to your wall in a second, but this just makes me mad.

I'm town regardless of whether or not you can see it. Your question isn't designed in such a way so that town answers one way and scum answers another. If you want to get somewhere, case me and I'll tell you where you've made mistakes, because that's the best way to get you to see things correctly without polluting the thread with WIFOM. This is what you did with your other post that I'll respond to next.

I've seen scum win too many games by writing up a bunch of pandering crap in LYLO and spamming the thread with NAI arguments that only serve to confuse townies. That's how I myself have won before (see N1667, Bushfire). I will do what I can to show you I'm town, but part of that includes not stooping to distractions or meaningless walls that allows scum to thrive.

So no, I didn't *ruin* anything, you asked a useless question and are now arguing as if I'm scummy or somehow wrong for telling you that it's useless. I hope you can see why that's bad play. It's setting yourself up to be sucked up to

[GuiltyLion]

- his trajectory in this game follows no natural progression or intent to solve the game; rather, his votes and opinions seem to revolve around whatever is currently going on and he hasn't really produced any independent content

This is what I was saying, and why it should be obvious that SirCakez is scum.

The reason why my gut says GL:
- large distance from massive all game. The notion that you started a big wagon on him is false. You naked voted him and then when the wagon started to blow up you said your vote was some kind of bait or trap, but didn't expound any further. That is not a convicted push like you are trying to suggest.

It was not a convicted push because it was day 1. My naked vote was a bait to some degree - I like to naked vote my scumreads and see how people react to them. I have a history of doing this and can dig up some examples from past town games if you want.

I didn't leave the massive wagon until it completely died and he wasn't a viable lynch any more. While I didn't exactly post a thesis on why I was okay with lynching him, I also don't think it fits the play of someone presumably bussing their partner D1.

- in retrospect, you were very very wrong about NH whether you're town or mafia, and looking back on the arguments you had with him in a new light has made me very suspect of you. Since NH is conftown now, I can read his posts with the understanding that he's coming from a completely townie mindset. Most of your retorts to him are denial and counter tunneling. YOU as a townie weren't ever considering that he could be town until it became necessary for you to align your views that way.

I never knew that they were coming from a townie mindset either. What exactly looks bad about our interaction to you? Why are you reading it TvS instead of TvT?

I will fully admit to having a bad read on NH. you've already saved the game once by refusing to lynch there.

- to build on that point, your focus for most of the game up to and including yesterDay has been NH. You barely scraped the surface on massive/SC partner which I called you out on and you still didn't give a concrete reply. If SC is town, then fypov all you have to do is remain adamant about NH and either he gets lynched or a NL happens, and you win. SC on the other hand actually considers switching to massive; transition to next point
- this still has yet to be explained; if SC is scum then he can just leave his vote on NH and guaranteed win the game. Because you were tunneling NH and never giving the impression of voting massive, a massive lynch wouldn't have happened from his pov. Any other lynch or NL wins SC the game. There is no reason for scum!SC to suggest pulling the votes together for massive when he knows town!GL is willing to vote town!NH.

EVEN IF you try to make the argument, "Well zefiend you refused to vote NH so his lynch wouldn't have happened, and it came to an impasse where deadline was approaching so the only logical lynch was massive," SC STILL brought up the notion of lynching him while YOU waffled about "not wanting to guess between SC and massive today."

- the way I see it, YOUR play is more indicative of being backed up against the wall with a partner who abandoned the game during Lylo (sorry btw) than being town and trying to make the best of a tough situation. Whereas if SC was scum, I don't think he would have been so brazenly switching his vote between NH and massive. He would have locked in NH and just stuck it out.

Brazenly switching between two players in LYLO is not town play. I had a scumread I was willing to bet the game on, and I didn't move anywhere else. It was wrong, but being wrong is not the same as being scummy.

You say there's no reason for scum!SC to be willing to switch to massive, but I think this argument you are making is _exactly_ the reason for him to do that. If we lynched massive without SirCakez on the wagon, he knows he would have been absolutely sunk today. So he came into 5p LYLO with a crossbussing plan to give him an out if his NH lynch didn't go through.

[GuiltyLion]

The fact that you didn't even TRY and instead are trying to have a strategy/theory debate with me is VERY peculiar. You failed the reaction test hard.

Explain to me why peculiar = scummy. Why would a scum!GL argue this with you instead of pandering and doing what you wanted? My point here is clear - asking both players to cater to you only serves to benefit whoever pushes your buttons correctly.

If you test me and conclude that I'm scum, that's your test failing to make a correct read, and thus a fault of your play. But we can argue this postgame because you probably won't believe what I'm saying until you see conclusively that it's coming from a town POV.

[GuiltyLion]

Look, I get mad and bullheaded when someone calls me scum and I know I'm not. I tend to tunnel and scumread those people because I assume it has to be scum-driven since my towniness should be obvious. You're saying I'm scum just because I couldn't read NH correctly and that's not grounded in anything indicative.

Next, saying NH engaged in "vote swapping" similar to SC is incorrect - NH was a hydra posting multiple times from two separate people. Which "swaps" from NH were similar to SC randomly voting massive with 8 hours until deadline and then switching to a ML wagon as soon as my vote went on it?

[GuiltyLion]

Next, I don't really consider myself a part of a massive wagon. That was not at all a lynch I wanted yesterday, my vote was just to make sure there was

A

lynch because I didn't know if you'd be back to hammer. I don't know why you're acting like I'm trying to gain towncred from voting massive. Instead, I'm saying that SirCakez was fine pushing/driving a massive lynch because

he knew already that he was scum

. I didn't have that information which is why I didn't want to lynch outside of what I thought was obvious scum

[GuiltyLion]

Explain to me why peculiar = scummy.

Why would a scum!GL argue this with you instead of pandering and doing what you wanted?

My point here is clear - asking both players to cater to you only serves to benefit whoever pushes your buttons correctly.

You begrudge my reaction test on the basis that scum can pollute with WIFOM, then you ask a blatant WIFOM question. Really?

How is that WIFOM? I'm asking you to consider what scum motivation I would have for answering as I answered. You're saying it's strange and therefore it's scummy, but you're just completely wrong.

[GuiltyLion]

Also look at what SC said makes him town - the fact that he pushed massive and the fact that he posted with 8 hours to deadline. He's literally using the wagon to angle for towncred, as I am trying to show you!

[GuiltyLion]

DEADLINE SUDDENLY APPEARS 8 HOURS
VOTE: massive
I am more confident in this being scum then NH

Like, what about this reads to you like town pushing their scum suspect? This is an insurance vote. He moves to NH as soon as I showed up and we were in a crossvote

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: massive
If massive is town I'm gonna flip my shit not gonna lie

Also this is just fake

[GuiltyLion]

Also I really don't appreciate you saying I "tunneled NH all game". I had a lot of dialogue with both massive and SC trying to read them on D4/D5. I just never felt like I had a firm enough read to vote one of them in LYLO

[GuiltyLion]

It also makes me feel really uncomfortable about how "confused" players are jumping at this 1 v 1.

Who were you referring to here?

I think zefiend and Nahdia are both town. Did either of you get scum vibes from SirCakez opening post today? The "not sure if MyLo or not" feels fake.

I can see scum!massive but it's mostly by proxy of him coasting all game. He's in my lynchpool but SirCakez's "yeah sure" attitude makes me hesitate.

NH

- read on massive? Why didn't you respond to Nahdia suggesting to lynch him?

SirCakez can you walk me through why your read on NH went from scum to town over the first three days, and where it stands now

I can go more in detail when I get home but basically I hated their entire push on me because it was full of misrep (faking my reads for example) but

then once they moved past me they improved

.

Can you be more specific about this bolded part, when "they improved"? Which posts and when?

Cakez, when did you think I had claimed?

If that's the case, how on earth do you get to NH-scum? It would seem to me that, if you believe NH-scum, there's no real reason to believe there's a scum-RB.

Shaddowez and Fire both claimed to be roleblocked.

Are you paying attention? I can't imagine how you'd forget that if you were trying to solve the game

I didn't forget. I asked "where's the proof?" I'm pretty sure mathematically it's been proven that Fire at least lied about N1, which means that both he and Shaddowez can be explained by Fire's own "results." Or do you think Fire was telling the truth? If you do, why is NH claiming Fire lied just "ridiculous" (1519) and not flat out scummy?

How has it been proven that Fire lied? Walk me through that one.

NH claiming that Fire lied IS ridiculous. It's rejecting information coming from a proven town in order to justify their own claim. It should be obvious to you that that's scummy, I don't know why you're acting like I'm supposed to explicitly state as much.

The town players aren't really helping

Who are you referring to here?

There are 4 days left and I'm getting the sense that you're stalling it out. Do you still think SC is scum? Do you think NH is town?

I'm p sure it's NH/massive, so up to you Cakez/zefiend. NH/Cakez is a slightly less probable team, I'd put it at 20%, but their interactions all game read closer to TvS than SvS

Look at all this non-NH tunneling

[GuiltyLion]

DEADLINE SUDDENLY APPEARS 8 HOURS
VOTE: massive
I am more confident in this being scum then NH

Like, what about this reads to you like town pushing their scum suspect? This is an insurance vote. He moves to NH as soon as I showed up and we were in a crossvote

I only moved to NH because it looked like massive wasn't going to happen -

because of you voting NH!

zefiend - look at the bolded. SC is acting like I derailed his massive wagon by voting NH. I voted NH _after_ they had already voted me. Crossvoting is the only appropriate vote for me there because if it was TvT then the game was already lost (fortunately it wasn't the case in this game as massive wasn't here). NH was the one refusing to join a massive wagon first, but SC is presenting a different narrative where I stalled his lynch. He's not reasoning logically, he's spinning it to make me look scummy.

[GuiltyLion]

How was I derailing lmao

NH and I were in crossvote, you don't move from that because it only increases town chance of losing on a TvT vote

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: SirCakez

I'm looking elsewhere for now.

I like the target, I hate the vote.

1. Why Cake?

2. Why not Firebringer? (and, as an addendum to this question - what are your thoughts about his nervously self-noted OMGUS on me after I claimed I caught him as scum, like, you find that the townie reaction? Y'know, when you play as scum and someone is like "I *know* you are scum" your immediate reaction is to vote them, laugh it off as OMGUS, and not start demanding to, y'know, ask 'why' they claim to know you're scum, since clearly they have to be wrong, and also it would be slightly psychotic for scum to try a 1 v 1 on Day 1, so...y'know, they're either incredibly bad scum you ought to be able to own, or really mistaking town you should try to sort...that's how you'd play it, right, with an OMGUS? Talk me through your reaction, or specifically your lack of one, to that.)

Thor on replacing in did a lot to steer attention away from both massive and SirCakez and push it onto Firebringer. This post in particular is a long case singling out kirroha and trying to move her from Cakez to Fire. It's exactly what NH said -

unless his team is massive/Cakez

, Thor is town, because he went for a completely different (and difficult) push rather than jumping on a plausible mislynch, if either of them had been town. NH got the read wrong because the top two wagons of the day so far had been on scum

More in a sec as I'm mobile posting

[GuiltyLion]

Overnight - Nigh Hunter makes a move I agree with for reasons that are unclear to me.
Firebringer continues to claim scum by playing AtE bombs against both people voting him while tryingto appear playful and making 5+ posts with zero scumhunting in them.
The rest of the thread sleeps and continues to miss the scum claims, or is sitting there scared to comment on the ongoing events for reasons that also escape me.

Not sad with the current vote count, that one will be atreasure trove later. I am intrigued that as I come in and start a hard push on scum the massive wagon disintegrates and the Cake wagon builds. I have no idea what that means now, but on the off chance I'm not around later I'd just like to note to everyone that a few flipped alignments will make that one super interesting.

I also notice a couple of times that Thor draws attention to both massive and SirCakez simultaneously (while pushing neither). There's another quote I accidentally deleted that I'll put up right after this one. But this one is particularly noteworthy because Thor starts trying to distance

between

massive and Cakez. He's making it sound like one is town and one is scum, and I suspect he planned to push that angle later if one of them ever got flipped.

[GuiltyLion]

Hurm, that post wasn't signed, but I will take by inference that you are saying it was Titus.
My counter then to your gut read is - ask Titus about my usual "tone" and then come back and clarify if you still think this is how I play as scum but not as town. I think that will save me a headache and you time.

In the meantime - on the basis that I agree Cake is screwy and massive is bad, please sheep me on Firebird.
Seriously - ask Titus to read my entrance and Fire's claim again in context, then sheep.

Here's the other post where Thor suspects both Cake and massive in the same breath. It may be all just WIFOM (I usually look at what living players say about the flipped scum rather than vice versa), but I think he's being cheeky here and covering for two partners simultaneously. Surely he wouldn't soft-scumread-and-distance from BOTH partners, right? That's what I would want to think when rereading him, which was probably his design.

[GuiltyLion]

All of the votes that aren't on one of the top three wagons need to move to one of those wagons. Fire isn't happening today.
We may have to move back to Thor if we can't get the NH votes.

This post from Cakez is interesting. He's softly floating a Thor lynch, but with very little conviction. Similar to how he 'pushed' massive yesterday. It a grab for towncred in case Thor wound up being a surprise D1 lynch, but then he kept his vote on NH and then moved to tojam

[GuiltyLion]

Also Cakez saying Thor "heavily pushed" him is scum embellishment. Thor didn't ever vote Cakez, he chased down people who were voting Cakez instead.

[GuiltyLion]

SirCakez argument is "he was scumreading me and avoiding GL", but he doesn't show why that supposedly makes him town.

Like I said in 1946 Thor never "pushed" Cakez once (I define pushing as "advocating for their lynch"). Instead, he explicitly tried to get kirroha to move her vote off of him, and pretty much tunneled Fire for the entirety of his time alive.

It's true that he didn't push me either, and started "townreading" me, but that behaviour is more consistent with how he treated NH and zefiend as well.

What did you think about my point about Thor's 451? Scum!Thor is calling out how a wagon shifted from scum!massive to SirCakez, and said that will be "interesting" after a few flipped alignments. What would he gain from that comment if SirCakez was town? If SirCakez were to flip green, then he's locked into a massive scumread. If massive flips red, SirCakez is ostensibly off the table for a future lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

Cakez why do YOU think Thor suggested only one of you/massive would be scum, while scumreading you both?

And Thor 'scumread' you. He never pushed you. He never voted you, never explicitly endorsed your wagon.

Also how much experience do you have with Thor and Thor meta? You are making a lot of claims about what type of player he is or isn't.

[GuiltyLion]

don't forget about SC trying to make chain lynch plans with Ari. I feel we didn't bring that up too much

[GuiltyLion]

to be fair we really should have won yesterday if massive had just shown up

I'm kinda surprised I pulled it out today though. I warned you I had a good scum LYLO game

[GuiltyLion]

zefiend for what it's worth I thought you played awesomely. Your 180 on NH really made the game challenging in the end

[GuiltyLion]

This game seemed to go on for a very long time....

It sucks cause I was going to trigger vote GuiltyLion at the start of Lylo due to Cakez coming back and lynching massive. Then the site crash happened and I lost train of thought on this game, and GL was able to sway me with all his arguments at the end :/

When you see the mafia thread you'll see I had basically given up after the massive lynch. And even then I was so sure you had me dead to rights when you posted 1915-1918

[GuiltyLion]

Now that you're here, thanks for modding Aero! This was really well run, and I think you did do the night resolutions correctly (once I figured out what was going on ). The flavor was great as well!