Mini 1769: Ice Cream Mafia - Game over!

[Ircher]

I wanna lynch Ircher Keysor and Kain today.

I see nothing in here that changes that.

And your reads make zero sense.

[Ircher]

D1 Major Wagons: Keyser, BBT, Keyser, GuyFawkes, Ircher (Started forming around deadline) Kein (Died fairly early)

I wonder...What if all of these wagons were town?

That leaves us with:

Pops, Massive, Aqua, Boon, Titus, Slandaar, Thor, TTH

Take out the confirmed towns amd dead players, and we simply have:

Pops, Massive, Aqua, Titus.

My belief is Aqua is town.

That gives us a scum team of {Pops, Massive, Titus} - Anyone else thinks this is a good possibility?

[Ircher]

Spoiler: Major Votecounts

Votecount 1.5

KainTepes (3) - TellTaleHeart, Masquerade, Aquanim
mn (2) - massive, popsofctown
Masquerade (1) - OceanWind
Golden Robster (1) - BlueBloodedToffee
OceanWind (1) - Golden Robster
Phoenix Wright (1) - Slandaar
Keyser Soze (1) - mn
Aquanim (1) - KainTepes

Not voting (2) - Phoenix Wright, Keyser Soze

(expired on 2016-03-13 08:31:00) remain until day end

Votecount 1.9

Keyser Soze (4) - Thor665, GuyFawkes, BlueBloodedToffee, Boonskies
Ircher (2) - Golden Robster, KainTepes
Thor665 (1) - massive
GuyFawkes (1) - TellTaleHeart
Boonskies (1) - Slandaar
KainTepes (1) - Aquanim
Golden Robster (1) - popsofctown

Not voting (2) - Keyser Soze, Ircher

(expired on 2016-03-13 08:31:00) remain until day end

Votecount 1.14

Keyser Soze (4) - Thor665, GuyFawkes, BlueBloodedToffee, Boonskies
GuyFawkes (4) - Keyser Soze, Ircher, TellTaleHeart, popsofctown
Boonskies (1) - Slandaar
Aquanim (1) - KainTepes
BlueBloodedToffee (1) - Aquanim
Ircher (1) - massive

Not voting (1) - Titus

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch someone.

(expired on 2016-03-13 08:31:00) remain until day end

Votecount 1.17

GuyFawkes (5) - TellTaleHeart, popsofctown, Aquanim, BlueBloodedToffee, Ircher
Keyser Soze (5) - Thor665, GuyFawkes, Boonskies, KainTepes, Slandaar
Ircher (2) - massive, Titus

Not voting (1) - Keyser Soze

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch someone.

(expired on 2016-03-13 08:31:00) remain until day end

Votecount 1.19

GuyFawkes (7) - TellTaleHeart, popsofctown, Aquanim, BlueBloodedToffee, Ircher, Keyser Soze, Thor665
Ircher (4) - massive, Titus, Boonskies, GuyFawkes
Keyser Soze (2) - KainTepes, Slandaar

Not voting (0)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch someone.

(expired on 2016-03-13 08:31:00) remain until day end

Anyone up for analyzing these wagons? I may try to later.

[Ircher]

Cuz he was one of the major D1 wagons.

[Ircher]

but Aquanim may be GODFATHER, which is MAFIA,, i said that already, it is a possibility?

READ THE WIKI; GODFATHER WOULD RETURN AN INNOCENT, NOT A "NO RESULT", RESULT PM!

[Ircher]

@Ircher, VCA pre scum flip should not be done unless unavoidable as well.

~Titus

Why can't I use VC anakysis.

In this case, I'm ignoring associations. but rather looking at what wagons the scum let people fight over then used PoE to narrow it down to 4 suspects.

[Ircher]

Gunsmith
Jailkeeper
Odd night Cop
Mafia Roleblocker x3
VTs

Is it plausible?

No

[Ircher]

VOTE: Ircher

Back to this. Still not sure how we haven't lynched him yet.

And quite frankly, I'm not sure how you have NOT learned anything about me during Mini 1755. Unless of course, you are scum trying to exploit my weakpoints.

[Ircher]

In Mini 1755, your argument was "I do too many scummy things so I must not be scum." Are you saying that's also your defense now? Do you want me to point out some glaringly obvious errors in your gameplay if you're actually town? Like, to start with, not basing POE on a complete supposition about Day 1 wagons? Usually POE works better with facts.

And you're perfect? I think not.

In fact, I haven't seem much from you at all this game, other than your pathetic tunnel on me.
VOTE: Massive

[Ircher]

@Massive
If you think my method is 100% useless, then show me your cases for your scumreads. Aka, PARTICIPATE AND GET INVOLVED; SHARE THOUGHTS AND STOP TUNNELING PEOPLE who you have no reason to tunnel when you've literally done nothing this game.

[Ircher]

Alrightm that is suspicious @Titus
Now, aside from myself, who else is the scumteam in your opinion?

[Ircher]

Wait... should we be voting Boonskies today?


Theoretically, if Boonskies is not scum, his gambit should have worked. Someone scum who actually targeted the N1 victim should have fessed up and gone for the head-to-head.

Why didn't his gambit work? If a scum refused to take ownership of visiting the victim and Boonskies announced which person did visit the victim, but didn't take ownership, they just die without getting the head to head, which is strictly worse when Boonskies said he had two names.

Furthermore, X-shot vig double targetting the night's actual victim is a really sketchy, convenient claim.

Occam's razor, Boonskies is a scum-aligned tracker that saw Thor visit the dead player, then had a crazy idea. He started with a watcher claim on the night's victim, which is safe if he was tracked, then switched to a vig claim on the night's victim, which is ALSO safe if he was tracked. He was hoping 2 players visited the dead player.

He said when he revealed his gambit that he really tried to kill me, but he was jailed (or I was) by TTH.

[Ircher]

I will get back to this thread

[Ircher]

Alright, what questions do you guys have (about me)?

[Ircher]

@Ircher, VCA pre scum flip should not be done unless unavoidable as well.

~Titus

Why can't I use VC anakysis.

In this case, I'm ignoring associations. but rather looking at what wagons the scum let people fight over then used PoE to narrow it down to 4 suspects.

And how do you know which ones are the ones scum "let people" fight over versus the ones that are actually on scum?

VCA is best used to clear people, not to force through scum reads.

The closest thing you could get to a VCA is that the Keysor wagon is almost all flipped town or obvtown and that's a little sketchy by methodology.

I guess I cannot say for sure.

Some things that can be said though:

I was the main one who tried to get another wagon going, as I didn't like the case for the Keyser wagon.
BBT, Titus/GR, Massive, Pops, Aqua were not very intensely imvolved in the latter half of D1 where most of the D1 wagons began to form.

So, IF I were to take a gander at those just watching, it would be those people.

The fact that Keyser's wagon has mainly flipped town is a bit disturbing, but it is def. possible. I still think there is a good chance of town Keyser.

The person who I want sorted is Massive. In my last game, Massive was scum. Thinking over it, his play here largely resembles his play then -- Lurktastic, and not really providing any content. I refuse to let him slide by simply on his meta; I demand that he gives more substandial reads and would be more engaged in this game.

[Ircher]

@Massive
If you think my method is 100% useless, then show me your cases for your scumreads. Aka, PARTICIPATE AND GET INVOLVED; SHARE THOUGHTS AND STOP TUNNELING PEOPLE who you have no reason to tunnel when you've literally done nothing this game.

Meanwhile, OceanWind had the exact opposite read of Keyser (79) and Ircher (his replacement) isn't catching up, except enough for a STRONG townread on Keyser, is voting a null read, but still wants to make sure his ducks are in a row for when Keyser is ultimately lynched.

Add in the blatant rolefishing and I'm still happy with my case. Claiming I've done "literally nothing" when it conveniently ignores the quite sound case on you -- doesn't make it true.

---

What are the differences between Ircher's play in this game and in 1755 which make you think Ircher is scum in this game?

I'm not sure what you're asking here. Ircher's play in 1755 made him an easy mislynch -- but you seem to be suggesting I should forgive obviously-scummy behavior because "he's played like this before," when I would suggest that I would lynch anyone (and probably Ircher specifically A LOT) if they behaved in this fashion. I'm not going to give him a pass just because he plays scummy in every game.

---

Someone want to explain Titus to me? I'm not seeing it.

Few things:

1. The strong defense of Keyser was genuine. Yet at the same time, I, knowing my meta, am quite well aware that I have a tendency to do stuff that make me an easy mislynch. Therefore, the "distancing" was there as a precaution, in the slim case that I was wrong.

2. I've done scummy stuff this game. Rolefishing is definitely one of them. Sometimes, I am not thinking about how things go through, though I admit that the rolefishing was a bit more intentional versus some stuff I've done in the past that has gotten me mislynched.

3. The only thing you've done this game is tunnel me. You didn't give your thoughts about Keyser D1, you never said anything about Thor D2, and you continue to insist on tunneling me when there are so many other people who you should also at least be giving some attention to. Your strategy -- Tunnel me until I'm lynched makes zero sense and does not help town because there are 3 mafia. It may be acceptable if there was 1 scum left, or we're searching for a SK, but tunneling me without giving the slightest attn to anyone else (What's your thoughts on Kein? Boon? Titus? (You say you townread him in the quoted post -- why?) Keyser?). I may be slightly misrepping you here -- maybe you have given some opinions on some other people besides me. But the core point persosts, you haven't tried to analyze anyone except me despite knowing there are multiple scum.

4. So in other words, you are saying that having a meta of being easily mislynched due to scummy actions means you are EVEN MORE likely to scumread a player for that. Again, I admit, some of the stuff I've done here have been blatantly poor/scummy, and while I intentionally did do some of it (Rolefishing, poor VCA), I had no intentions of manipulating / using my meta as a way to defend myself for those actions (let me clarify: I'm defending myself with meta, but I am also taking responsibility for my actions. Rather than just using my meta, I'm also admitting that my play in some ways deserves to be found scummy). Back to the original point -- Meta is not something you just trash.

Meta is important

A solely meta defense or meta scum-read is NOT what I mean by meta is important -- That fails as meta can be manipulated and is always changing. No, what I'm saying is that meta lays the foundation for how you read a player. Let me use you as an example: you have a meta of lurking. While lurking is generally scummy (antitown at least), it's not a very valid argument against you since you do it regardless of alignment. People therefore CANNOT base their read of you SOLELY on your activity as lurking is what you do as your playstyle. A person who has a tendency to do scummy stuff (as town) that gives them mislynched should mean that players should be more cautious in scumreading them. Yet, you imply that the opposite should be expected. Why? What's the point of having a meta if you ignore it / are held to an illogical standard that is the opposite of your meta?

[Ircher]

I will say this for Titus -- There's a chance he may be town & his read of me is not a mislynch attempt; aka, he may genuinely believe I'm scum.

He is certainly the most vocal scumread of mine, and he does occassionally provide reasons for what he says. I haven't seen this from Pops or Massive though, so I am almost certain those two are scum.

[Ircher]

Mafia have a RB since Kein got No Result N1. Kein's claim still fits since Gunmith gets lots of false guilties and the Cop is OddNight. JK and RB nuklify Follow the Cop strategy and balance the setup for the double investigative. The Vig can mainly be considered negative utility as vigs shoot town more often than not.

I would not believe any further claims though.

[Ircher]

I think I am still good with my reads. Massive obvtowned.

I am going to be voting the biggest of my scumreads unless someone obvscums.

Why is massive a townread?

[Ircher]

L-1

VOTE: Titus

As much as I'd prefer a Pops or Massive lynch, its quite obvious that isn't happening. Apologies Titus, if you're town, but I'm still pretty confident you are scum.

[Ircher]

@BBT:

Explain to me why you quickhammered.

[Ircher]

VOTE: BBT

Also, we're in LyLo.

[Ircher]

Not until you answer my question.

You quickhammered Titus -- 20 minutes after my vote -- why?

[Ircher]

So, you think scum will conduct an extended quickhammer involing all 3 of them?

Fine, whatever.

Answer my question though.
UNVOTE: BBT

[Ircher]

And so did I, but I was beginning to doubt myself that she was scum.

Nonetheless, why did you

quickhammer

. Just because you

think

someone is scum does not always mean they

are

scum.

Quickynches are

anti-town

and standard policy is to state intent

before

hammering,

in case

that player was town. Even if we still lynched Titus, you didn't give her a chance to speak. You didn't let her put out her final reads. You didn't let her further her win con before death. Allowing a player to speak before they are lynched rarely hurts town: if the lynched player is scum, one can dismiss what they said as wifom.

Now, i'll ask you again:

Why did

you

quick

hammer

Titus?

[Ircher]

Really, if you're town, these reads should make pretty good sense to you.

Keysor's on it because Thor wanted it and is dead and confirmed town.

Thor was lynched by us (town) because we miss-read the limitations of a fake-Watcher-gambit.
Thor was not killed by scum because of his reads.

If Thor was night-killed by mafia you may have an argument.

"Keysor's on it because Thor wanted it and is dead and confirmed town."

- just because a confirmed townie reads someone as scum, it doesn't make them more likely to be scum. Thus, your reasons for wanting me lynched are based on a logical fallacy.

I.e Thor's personal read of me has nothing to do with my alignment. We are not lynching on the reads of the dead.

Neither am I going to blindly town-read his town-reads. Are you happy to invest in this false reasoning?

So, no Titus, your read does not make "pretty good sense" to me.

This does remind of something though, although it prob. doesn't apply here: sometimes, the dead players ARE right. In other words, I think you need to give them a bit more credit than it seems. (I'm specifically referring to how RC manages to figure out the scumteam and yet never explains why so he's just ignored......)

[Ircher]

I'll say it again.

Because I thought she was scum.

You missed the entire point of the post.

Here, let me make it a bit more blatant:

Why did you

*QUICK*

hammer Titus?

You are avoiding my question. Obviously, you thought she was scum. But why not give her a chance to speak once more? Why play the blatantly anti-town move instead of quickhammering?

[Ircher]

Wait... should we be voting Boonskies today?


Theoretically, if Boonskies is not scum, his gambit should have worked. Someone scum who actually targeted the N1 victim should have fessed up and gone for the head-to-head.

Why didn't his gambit work? If a scum refused to take ownership of visiting the victim and Boonskies announced which person did visit the victim, but didn't take ownership, they just die without getting the head to head, which is strictly worse when Boonskies said he had two names.

Furthermore, X-shot vig double targetting the night's actual victim is a really sketchy, convenient claim.

Occam's razor, Boonskies is a scum-aligned tracker that saw Thor visit the dead player, then had a crazy idea. He started with a watcher claim on the night's victim, which is safe if he was tracked, then switched to a vig claim on the night's victim, which is ALSO safe if he was tracked. He was hoping 2 players visited the dead player.

Despite BBT avoiding my question, BBT is NOT on the top of my lynch list.

No, rather, Pops is.

What I want Pops to explain is how this above explanation was Occam's Razor.

Imo, (and indeed it was), Occam's razor is simply Boon took a risky gambit, scum saw it ahead of time (though there's a clue -- BBT understood it), and another Townie happened to visit the same player.

The above explanation seems no simpler than what the truth was.

[Ircher]

And so did I, but I was beginning to doubt myself that she was scum.
...

Why did you put Titus to L-1?

Fair enough.

Not my top pick, but I was feeling somewhat lazy.

1) I would've preferred a Pops or a Massive lynch. That wasn't going to happen, as it was quite obvious that it was either me or Titus who was getting lynched. So, I settled for third best since there's three scum.

2) Too lazy to make an actual case against Massive or Pops not to mention how difficult that would be as they both have very few posts.

3. Didn't expect BBT to come out and quickhammer Titus.

[Ircher]

So are you saying there aren't any significant differences you see from the last game you played with Ircher, in which he was town?

You're not going to get me to say "This is Ircher's towngame." Because, if it is, it's shitty, and it needs to be corrected. Your job as town is to BE TOWN and not do scummy stuff in the hopes of building your own meta up.

And also this

A person who has a tendency to do scummy stuff (as town) that gives them mislynched should mean that players should be more cautious in scumreading them. Yet, you imply that the opposite should be expected. Why? What's the point of having a meta if you ignore it / are held to an illogical standard that is the opposite of your meta?

is horseshit. If you are getting consistently mislynched as town THEN FIX. YOUR. GAME. This is not "Oh well I can't help that I do scummy stuff, you should know I always do when I'm town" because YOUR JOB as town is to make so I don't have to think "is he town and just bad or is he scum?" YOUR JOB is to be the paragon of towniness. So if you are town GET RIGHT.

But you're not. Of course your defense of Keyser was genuine -- you know his alignment, so it's easy to be genuine. You already admit to misrepping me (including saying I townread Titus, when the quoted bit merely says I don't understand the case on Titus, primarily because there isn't one). My posts during D2 should show, if NOTHING ELSE, that I am trying to sort Thor, so saying "I made no comment on Thor D2" is flat-out a lie.

And your criticism that I need to focus elsewhere because "there are three scum" is ludicrous. I caught one. I can look at associatives after we lynch you. I don't need to hunt a whole pack at once.

I noted I might be slightly misrepping you since you have a very sparse ISO, I didn't remember the facts exactly (cuz your name barely appeared), and I was too lazy to verify what I said.

[Ircher]

Because I thought she was scum and wanted her lynched.

You're making an awful big deal out of this after you're the one who put her to L-1.

I'm not the one who quickhammered: What don't you understand about quickhammering is anti-town.

Furthermore, I just explained why I put Titus at L-1 and quite frankly, those are better reasons than you have decided to share.

{BBT, Massive, Pops} is our scum team. We should lynch Pops first though.

[Ircher]

And quite frankly, putting someone at L-1 and bolding the fact that it is L-1 is not quite as scummy as just coming in and quickhammering without explanation.

[Ircher]

@Kein - What were your results last night?

[Ircher]

Can you shut up BBT. You have been absent and not played all game, only present at the end of each misslynch wagon... and now you want to control Day Four?
F**k off.

You are being lynched today.


Where has my 180 come from? Read my ISO since yesterday and your f**king pathetic hammer. That made me want to quit mafiascum completely.

I am freaking tired of quickhammers too and the fact that BBT refuses to say more than "I thought she was scum" to explain his actions makes me have a scumread on the slot again.

[Ircher]

The only thing that *might* save BBT today is the fact that Massive is prob. scum too and since we seem to have agreement there........

[Ircher]

I mean, it's pretty obvious from your post that you thought massive was the only person who could be scum off the wagon.

So, when you deny that, it's a flat out lie.

@BBT
For one who's been here for 2 yrs, how is it you cannot understand what Keyser is saying?

Also, Titus said that VCA is best for when scum flip -- scum haven't flipped yet & even if you don't listen to Keyser or I, I'm pretty sure you could believe Titus.

What you are basically doing is being as scummy as you possibily can be. So, pls stop with your ignorance if your town.

[Ircher]

But, his scumread was based on VCA WIFOM.

On the other hand, KS expressed a more substandial case stating why he thought Titus was scum.

[Ircher]

I think massclaim is useless at this point.

[Ircher]

Setup:

1x Town Odd Cop (Kein)
1x Town 1S Vig (Boon)
1x Town Gunsmith (Thor)
1x Town JK (TTH)
1x Mafia RB (???)
1x Mafia Encryptor? (??? - Seems kinda common nowadays)

This setup was reviewed for balance and that is balanced.

JK & Mafia RB break any breaking strategies. And presumably, the RB overrides the JK.
Gunsmith gets a lot of false guilties, and the cop is limited to odd only.
The Vig is negative utility in general and we would've lost already if it wasn't for TTH.

And, massclaim is nullified cuz all the prs save one are dead.

[Ircher]

Kain, can you vote Keyser please?

If he does, I'm voting you.

I'm sure KS and Aqua wouldn't mind lynching you and certainly one other person will be willing to vote/bus you.

Nonetheless, I would strongly prefer us not lynching immediately like your stupid quickhammer yesterday and actually have a D1-ish type of day again where we get good amount of info.

[Ircher]

It's swingy, but it's balanced. The odd modifier on Kein being a Cop should actually confirm he's not fakeclaiming -- that's a very strange fakeclaim when town has a full gunsmith. Furthermore, Mafia has a RB who has been RBing Kein the entire game. Finally, gunsmith is weaker than I originally thought. It would get false positives on the Cop and Vig and possibly the JK too.

[Ircher]

And how many times do WE have to explain to you that we're using our time to search for scumbuddies?

[Ircher]

Pops & Massive conf scum for lurking :p

Ok, not really, but they haven't posted at all yet this day phase and have in general a fairly sparse iso.

[Ircher]

Gunsmith + RB + JK is actually weak:

Mafia can RB Gunsmith.
Town cannot protect the gunsmith (Nullified Follow the Cop)
Gunsmith can get false results.

That would be unbalanced for town as there are tons of ways scum/town can mess that up.

[Ircher]

FOR FUCK'S SAKE YOU NITWIT I AM NOT ONLINE ON THE WEEKENDS

This is town BBT and I'm kinda irritated he didn't show up earlier.

I still want to lynch Ircher and I'd probably be ok with Keyser. That's it for today. Pops and Aquanim you'll have to convince me on tomorrow.

I can xompromise lynch Massive

[Ircher]

..... BBT is confirmed scum. Massive is likely scum for hard defending BBT at town without explaining.

That leaves Pops, Aqua, and KS.....

I townread Aqua/Keyser : That leaves Pops

[Ircher]

Cuz people townread Keyser and aren't scummy idiots.

[Ircher]

Well, it looks like we were wrong the entire time. Well played Kein & Aqua (@Kein -- Who gave you the idea of including an odd modifier in your role?)

As to Massive: No kudos to you. You were your same lurktastic self and I am apalled that no one really questioned whether you were town the entire game.

@BBT
You acted very antitowm D4; however, its okay; townies make mistakes too. Overall, good game.

@Keyser
It seemed I was right about you from the start.

@Pops
As town, you should've contributed more.

@Aqua & @Kein
First of all, the fakeclaim was well executed. Second of all, even if we did lynch one of upyou, we wouldn't find the other as you two bussed each other all game.

@Boon
Your gambit was a good gambit, but it sadly didn't work out. I wonder what tipped scum off.

@SirCakez
Thanks for modding. I had fun when I replaced in.


This is the first game I've been endgamed on, so that's new.

[Ircher]

Yeah, it is. Combining it with RB though made it almost infallible (esp. with the gunsmith being lynched)

[Ircher]

Hmmm... Well my game is in the normal queue. While I certainly would accept you, that may drive away other players, which as a first time mod... cannot really be having. You understand the dilemna pf letting you into my game, right? (I would only reject though if I got a ton of complaints)

Looking at the dead thread... We basically lost from the start... Oh well.

[Ircher]

No, you played fine. Experience will help and that's about it. That and not using caps all the time.

[Ircher]

Kein wasn't lynched because Odd Cop + RB sounded balanced.

[Ircher]

I see TTH jailed me -- I want to know -- Was it cuz you thought I was scum or thought I was town?

[Ircher]

No, you did wiell in garnering the town's respect.

[Ircher]

I thought mafia thread was to be released in 24 hrs....

[Ircher]

As to Massive: No kudos to you. You were your same lurktastic self and I am apalled that no one really questioned whether you were town the entire game.

to be fair, this is how he always is. He posts the same amount every time. He doesn't post at specific times. He's very consistent, and I don't think that's a bad thing. I've been scum with massive before, and I really enjoyed it. When I mod, I always invite him to the games I mod, and is one of the names I look for when looking at playerlists to /in at.

If you asked me whether I would rather be 2-0 vs Ircher-town, or get kudos, I would pick 2-0 every time, by the way. And I love ya Boons.

I have had enough of lurkers & will prob. launch a crusade against you the next time we play.

[Ircher]

I am thinking about writing a post labelled "The Case Against Lurkers" to prove a point that lurking meta should not be an excuse for lack of contributions.

You don't seem to get that lurkers get COMPLETELY ignored, I mean, its like IMPOSSIBLE to get a lurker lynched cuz there is NEVER anything to incriminate them with cuz of their absurdly LOW frequency of posts. People should pay more attn to lurkers regardless of their meta, so lurkers do not automatically slide by every game.

[Ircher]

And, that sums up my thoughts exactly ^

Aqua did well with the DayTalk aspect.