Mini 1774: Formation of America's Mafiascum - Perfect Town W

[Dierfire]

Hello everyone!
I see that the Mod is treating "Fire" as ambiguous, but actually I usually go by "Dier" so I'll probably just assume that any mention of "Fire" is referring to Firebringer.

I actually like Persivul for Town here--I do think that the Mafia would read the game more thoroughly before casting a vote.
I also don't want to vote for Nosferatu, though. It seems a reasonable thing to do as Town if someone (supposedly) casts the L-1 vote without any notice.

VOTE: BBmolla

I'm suspicious of 114. It feels calculated to me and I would definitely like BBmolla to elaborate.

[Dierfire]

I still like my vote on BBmolla.

His explanations for his vote on Window Attack (134, 168) don't ring true to me, and in particular I think those justifications would work equally as well for Persivul and Firebringer, respectively.

[Dierfire]

I feel like a few people are voting for Window Attack (although it's difficult to be certain as we haven't had a VC in some time). I did a short ISO there and I don't see anything that makes me agree with Firebringer's opinion (that Window Attack's posts seems fake). I think that all of their reads are reasonable, although I think that they're prematurely discounting the potential that Nosferatu would vote for Persivul as Town (it's an easy reason to vote for Persivul as Mafia precisely because the reasoning from a Town perspective is obvious). I'm undecided on Killthestory--some of the problem might be stylistic or (site-specific) cultural.

[Dierfire]

Oh, hey, I missed that Nosferatu was voting for me.

@Nosferatu

Why are you voting for me?

[Dierfire]

I return!

I don't like the supposed "reaction test" by Window in 251. I agree with Firebringer that it looks like an invitation to spectacle rather than an actual attempt to form a read. I also don't like that the vote was removed and not replaced--it seems to me that the result of a test that turns up Town should be to go find Mafia.

@Window Attack (or @wgeurts, maybe?)

You offered to provide prior examples of your similar use of that test. I would like to see them.

[Dierfire]

Anyone else wanna give their opinion on Cakez here? It's pointless for me to keep arguing with him about why he's scum so I'd rather talk with some other people about it now.

I agree with this and can expound further.

Dierfire has done fuck all in game, not really much to read there.

Alch why do you hate my Persivul vote? What's wrong with adding pressure to a slot doing nothing?

I'm null scumreading it for lack of content. Thought it was pretty clear but apparently not.

It does seem that SirCakez is retroactively assigning motivation to his vote that was not present at the time, and in particular it doesn't seem as though his attitudes toward Persivul and me make a coherent stance.

UNVOTE: BBmolla
VOTE: SirCakez

I'm still suspicious of BBmolla, but I'm moving my vote to a larger wagon.

[Dierfire]

I don't think that "present but not doing much" is a read that addresses the concerns about SirCakez that I and others have expressed.

My thoughts are in 372. The essence is that SirCakez is trying to retroactively justify a vote on Persivul with a motive that was not present at the time (and that should have led him to vote for other slots such as mine earlier in the game).

Alchemist21 gave thoughts in 333 and 338. The essence seems to be that the vote on Persivul looked opportunistic and was not accompanied by evidence of suspicion.

Nosferatu gave thoughts in 366. The essence seems to be that SirCakez is opportunistic (from the timing of the vote in 330, I speculate that it's a reaction to the vote on Persivul in 315).

Do you have comments on the specific things? Could you elaborate why Nosferatu seems more suspicious to you now than before?

[Dierfire]

That appears to be L-1 for SirCakez.

I'll be back with more content in about 12 hours.

[Dierfire]

I'm a little nervous that so many people (Suzune, Shiro, Klingoncelt, Window Attack) haven't given a read on SirCakez as the deadline approaches and he's the leading wagon.

I read Window Attack again and didn't find anything else that struck me as suspicious. I'll wait for the additional content, but I have no plans to move my vote there at this time.

[Dierfire]

I'm already voting for SirCakez.

[Dierfire]

VOTE: Firebringer

The halfhearted defenses of SirCakez stood out to me, but at this point I suspect a high density of Mafia players on the Window Attack wagon (I'm using 476), so I would also likely vote for BBMolla, Shiro (but probably not if Firebringer is Mafia), or Klingoncelt.
I'll read Suzune again (tomorrow, I think), but I was thinking that SirCakez was reluctant to case a vote for Window Attack because too many other Mafia players were already there, which would seem less likely if Suzune were Mafia.

[Dierfire]

UNVOTE: Firebringer

I think that I trust Firebringer and Suzune for now.

VOTE: Shiro

The more likely that Firebringer is Town, the less comfortable I am with Shiro's activity.

[Dierfire]

Good, I've caught up and I don't feel that much has changed.

I'm still liking my vote for Shiro because I don't see a good reason for Shiro to cast so many votes with which Shiro appears to disagree (376, 454, 639). It definitely seems more like Shiro wants to emphasize the interaction with Firebringer, but not to actually persuade Firebringer to use the partnership well.
---
It seems that we're waiting for Klingoncelt to return, so I'll devote some time there when she posts an update.

[Dierfire]

It seemed to me like the point was "I care so much about this arrangement that I will punish Firebringer for breaking it" more than either "I think that Firebringer is likely Mafia for his behavior here" or "I think that I can persuade Firebringer to put his vote to better use" (that is, I don't believe that there's any support for the idea that Firebringer would only break out of the arrangement as Mafia, and I don't see any evidence that Shiro was trying to actually

persuade

Firebringer to change "their" votes).

[Dierfire]

I don't quite understand what's going on with Firebringer but I assume that Suzune has a good reason to trust him.
---
I was expecting more from Klingoncelt.

@Klingoncelt

Why is killthestory the best vote?
---

@Shiro

You said that your approach to Firebringer was helping you read him. What have you learned about his alignment?

[Dierfire]

@Klingoncelt

I guess that by "more" I mean that I was hoping that you would provide reasons for at least a few of your reads. That seems to me to be a better way to engender discussion than a list of reads without reasons.
It seems that you find it unreasonable for Killthestory to be suspicious of you at this time. This is not especially persuasive to me because I feel that there are at least a few good reasons to be suspicious of you (your absence when SirCakez was lynched, your failure to read him or interact with him at any point, your position on the alternative wagon that SirCakez was reluctant to join). Is there anything about Killthestory that is suspicious to you that is unrelated to his vote on you?

[Dierfire]

@Persivul

I don't quite understand what's going on with Firebringer but I assume that Suzune has a good reason to trust him.

Why do you assume that? What is the town motivation for their play?

I could throw out a few possible Town-related motivations, but I'm hesitant to assist the Mafia in seeking roles.
I think that the better question is this: what is the reason for them to make that play as Mafia that will not be exposed in time? For example, if we get to D4 and they offer a reason for the behavior that is obviously insufficient to justify it, then we'd lynch them anyway.

[Dierfire]

That seems like it would be a shortsighted plan, and I would be inclined to allow it to proceed.

[Dierfire]

@Klingoncelt

You want me to explain my reads? But Kill doesn't have to explain his read on me. Got it.

Just so we're clear: I'm asking you to explain your reads rather than asking Killthestory to explain his because I find you more suspicious than him. I'm not really considering moving my vote from Shiro to him; I am considering moving my vote from Shiro to you.
I'll wait for your more detailed reads.

[Dierfire]

Why would you want to lynch wise and noble Dier?

[Dierfire]

To me, it seems as though we're waiting for votes from Persivul and Suzune.
I still prefer the lynch on Shiro but I'll move my vote to Klingon if necessary.

[Dierfire]

As best as I can tell, everyone is voting for Klingoncelt or Shiro currently.

I'm willing to vote for either at this point. My slight preference for Shiro is a combination of the fact that Klingoncelt is not voting for Shiro (seems not to indicate the survivalist impulse that I would expect from a Mafia player at this point) and that Shiro hasn't given any reasons for any reads.
I'm willing to change my vote to Klingoncelt because I still think that there should be a high density of Mafia players on the D1 Window Attack wagon.
---
I've just remembered to check on BBMolla and I see that his vote in on me, which surprised me.

@BBMolla

Why is your vote on me? Why do you think that Shiro and Klingoncelt are both Town?

[Dierfire]

Sorry to be absent, I'm coming back with content within six hours.

[Dierfire]

Ha ha, "aggressively null" is a new one for me!

Anyway, I'm back. I read Klingoncelt again and I've decided that I don't want to lynch her any longer. She feels belligerent in a way that makes me think that she knows that those reading her as Mafia will be proved wrong by her flip.
This possibly means that I've been ruling too many people out today.

[Dierfire]

@itlepip

You appear to be all alone on the beeboy wagon, and the deadline approaches. Are you able to explain more clearly why you think that beeboy is the best lynch? To me, it seems unlikely that you will get a lynch there before the deadline.

[Dierfire]

I've received no information that gives me any further insight into the alignments of Suzune and Firebringer.

I need to reevaluate the game. I liked the case on beeboy presented by itlepip in 975. I need to review Persivul again, as my read on him hasn't been updated in some time while I was focused on others.

[Dierfire]

Ha ha, fair enough!

[Dierfire]

I'm putting this off for another day because I've been unexpectedly busy and tired.

I didn't send in a protest vote N2.

[Dierfire]

All right, I return.

Here is a summary of where I am.
I think that Firebringer, Suzune, and Alchemist21 will sort themselves out. Of those, Alchemist21 was my strongest read for Town, which further lends credence to Suzune's approach. I am least confident in Firebringer due to his position on the Window Attack wagon.
Nosferatu seemed unlikely to be a partner of SirCakez on D1. I'm looking especially at P17 with the case that SirCakez developed on Nosferatu (413), the reply by Nosferatu (416), and the response by SirCakez (419). To me, the tone of the responses by SirCakez seems to be actually requesting a response (that is, not just making noise).
I reviewed Persivul in ISO. I think that my residual read on him as Town was from his first vote. Since then, the only thing that supported my read was his initial reaction to the situation with Firebringer and Suzune, which I thought was persistent in a Town manner (or possibly in a manner that would indicate that he and Klingoncelt are both Mafia).
Klingoncelt is mostly suspicious to me for her positioning on the Window Attack wagon. I still don't see a reason for SirCakez to avoid that wagon if they were planning on killing Window Attack anyway unless he had partners there. On the other hand, I thought that her belligerence when it looked as though she would be lynched was anticipating vindication when lynched.
I liked the case on beeboy (now Ranger) by itlepip, but the same bit about the Window Attack wagon applies there.
I reviewed Killthestory in ISO and I find his style difficult to read. I'm going to say that I'm leaning Town on him. I think that his approach to Klingoncelt is what I'd expect from him as Town.

Once again I've come to a point at which I think that I've too many people as Town. My plan is to wait for Ranger to finish catching up and assess her slot again. Meanwhile I will be identifying those players in whom I am least confident of my read as Town for further evaluation.

[Dierfire]

@itlepip

Wait what about the Window Attack wagon?

Was this for me? I am referring to this:

I still don't see a reason for SirCakez to avoid that wagon if they were planning on killing Window Attack anyway unless he had partners there.

[Dierfire]

@Klingoncelt

... position on the Window Attack wagon...

I'd appreciate it if everyone would read my sig.

Note that I'm in bed asleep while most of you are posting.

That means that I claim at L-1/ post/ vote on other wagons in the middle of the fucking night. After everyone else is long gone.
You know how often I go to a game I'm in, ready to post and I find it locked because someone's been lynched while I was offline?
Besides that, position on wagons is no longer alignment indicative. Scum have changed their tactics since the 2014 model.

I'm not sure how your sleep schedule is relevant to your vote on Window Attack (468). You were awake then, right?

[Dierfire]

Sir Cakes was at L-2 at midnight on March 21. He was hammered at 6:24pm. I wasn't here during those hours. My last post was on Sunday the 20th at 10:01pm eastern. (I was in several other games at the time, plus R/L Spring Break stuff.)

Right, but what was special about those hours? You could have voted for him earlier than that!

[Dierfire]

Hurrah, well played!
I think that I had a pretty good D1 and a pretty bad remainder of the game, but I guess that the rest of the Town had things well in hand (even if Alchemist21 did murder me).
Killthestory was accurate, especially in that last slot, and Ranger's timely replacement seemed to change the momentum of the game significantly.

@Mod

Thanks for running the game! The mechanics were very interesting.