Micro 592: Lovers Mafia GAME OVER

[Maestro]

^

You're already making excuses for potentially leading mislynches and pointing to your record in pre-game.

Noted.

[Maestro]

He didn't say it was scummy, he was just noting it. What are your thoughts on my opening post.

Meh, my feelings were pretty clear though. No idea why it's got Smart leaning-Scum on me but I'm sure he'll figure that out. Personally, I didn't like the post at all. I've modded you once now - one of your Scum wins in case you've forgotten - and I closely followed Micro 573 (or whatever-it-was) where you and Smart imploded with the rest of your Town. Your opening post here feels infinitely more like your fake Dayvig in my Micro 590, and Smart seems to already be forcing connections to fabricate a leaning-Scum read on me after one post.

Using the word "doubtcasting" seems to imply to me that I was being subtle about something, in this case, my dislike of his post. I wasn't being subtle about it at all, and in general, I'm not in the habit of being subtle about anything.

VOTE: Fire Starter

Moar votes plz. This game can be over in one lynch, boys and girls.

[Maestro]

Your opening post here feels infinitely more like your fake Dayvig in my Micro 590

Hey, FS, I'm lazy. Link your other Scum game.

[Maestro]

Oh jesus, wait a minute.

itlepip was the other one from the bad LyLo in 573. This must be a lil' reunion.

[Maestro]

Funny? you mean the emoji? That was more of a "wow can't believe you just posted that" laugh than a "OHEMGEE I FIND THIS STATEMENT HILARIOUS" laugh - maybe " " would've been more appropriate

[Maestro]

And it was worth noting because I doubt his intentions for posting it were entirely ingenuous. Seems like it was meant as

1)

a way to attempt to pseudo-confirm himself via meta ("I'm gonna suck this game because I'm Town again, sorry")

2)

a preemptive strike against any argument that his play in this game is bad or antiTown by calling out his past bad performance as Town - this is related to (1), and maybe

3)

a way to allow himself to lapse in contribution or activity throughout the game ("I'm using this game as a learning experience, I don't need to take the foreground; I don't require a leadership role so please don't insist on involving me").

Take your pick from the above really, and yeah it could be reading into things but it's as good a place to start as any. I don't see anybody in a positive Town mindset posting 3 along with their confirmation: if he's Scum, saying or even implying any of the above (which I think he did in 3) is an early out for him in this game. He can point back to it for every mistake he makes. If he's Town he shouldn't be sitting on his 2 losses and moaning about this premature prediction for poor performance in this game, he should be doing the opposite (e.g. "I haven't won as Town yet, so I'm ready to take a leadership role and reevaluate past in-game habits of mine and catch and lynch Scum and win the fuck out of this game" etc.).

I'm a big fan of mindset-hunting, so tell me where any of my interpretation is off, or tell me where you see it coming from Town in their first post.

[Maestro]

Spoiler:

premature prediction for poor performance

Try saying this five times fast, yo

[Maestro]

Smart being very apologetic and removing fault if this turns out to be a ML, noted. He's not wrong though.

VOTE: Suz

[Maestro]

Actually, I'm a townie. So go ahead and lynch me. I just assumed bad.

Although for what it is worth. We should probably lynch Something smart, because only scum agree with my crazy logic.

VOTE: Something smart

I don't understand this cognitive leap at all, btw. Explain?

[Maestro]

I'm not, but nice try. I'm just acknowledging the implication in Smart's post - same as FS's first post, there's an implicative mindset here that's aiming to remove blame in case X happens in this game. For FS, the "thing that might happen" is his reads sucking or him pushing through a ML or two. For Smart, it's more specific: he's actively leaving a crumb for him to point back to and say "look I had doubts" just in case Suz turns out to be Town.

[Maestro]

I apologize, Suzune, but I don't think there's any way we can let you live here.

The only way for you to be town is if you either horribly misread your role pm or are completely trolling.

To be clear, I agree with the bolded part here. There's no reason for normal Town to say the first bit out loud because you shouldn't be apologizing to a Scumread if you want them lynched, and every lynch except a confirmed-sane-confirmed-Cop/P.I. guilty result is going to instill doubts in some people. It's therefore more likely that it's the crumb I'm referring to in my previous post.

[Maestro]

UNVOTE:

I'm making myself paranoid. Hold on a moment.

[Maestro]

Yeah, Suz. You need to come back in and post. Why did you

heavily imply

you were a Lover if you were actually a Townie? (Note that I say heavily imply because she never did outright claim it, as Smart seems to think. Reread the ISO.)

[Maestro]

That doesn't answer the question why are you certain that Suzune is a mislynch? You are doing the exact thing you are accusing SS of by preparing a lynch tomorrow of SS assuming Suzune is a miss WHICH SHE ISN'T!

Stop preparing a lynch tomorrow if you think suzune just slipped. I agree that in a normal game connection can be drawn between Suzune and SS but not in a game where the first scum lynch just ends the fricken game.

Pedit: Holy shit dude. Scratch what I said about Suzune/SS I'm pretty sure its you and suzune given how hard you are doubtcasting that lynch.

I never said I was certain and I wasn't doubtcasting. I thought Smart was correct when he said "the only way for [Suzune] to be town is if [she] either horribly misread your role pm or [is] completely trolling" but look back at her ISO. She never claimed Lover.

NEVER

. He wants us to think she did. I'm not preparing anything, I'm fully not supporting this lynch anymore.

The connection isn't between SS and Suz, it's between SS and FS. The quick defense coupled with the quick deflection onto Suz after one of her early posts, then a slight misrep on somebody who didn't read the setup or their Role PM correctly and you've got an easy D1 ML. Suz looks like a newb after her posts, but not Scum. Scum don't react with 40 and 41, not in my experience.

The wiki says Scum have Daytalk here. They know the first Scum lynch is their loss. They would be coaching the fuck out of one another THIS WHOLE TIME and you think there's ANY chance that Suzune somehow misread her Role PM, and her PT OP, and that her partner didn't clarify that they were the only Lovers? There's no fucking way it's this easy. Tell me I'm wrong, I dare you.

[Maestro]

Also, why the misrep about doubtcasting?

[Maestro]

VOTE: Smart

This is the way to go today.

[Maestro]

I'll lynch Suzune to prove you wrong if you like.
But then we get to lynch you tomorrow and win.

[Maestro]

I really fucking wish FS and lovely could come post so I could stop being paranoid.

[Maestro]

Because I don't know if you guys have noticed, but if Suzune is Town she could get MLed easily. All it would need is Smart, his partner, +2/4 of us. Contrarily, we need

EVERY SINGLE VT

present and voting the same person to lynch Scum and win D1, since Scum will never willingly bus their partner in this setup, except as an insane gambit that would have to stop at the last second.

[Maestro]

The gamestate so far heavily implies that Suzune is either Scum

ONLY WITH FIRE STARTER OR LOVELYGIANT

, or that she is Town. It can't be this easy.

[Maestro]

Think about it: all 3 of us were voting her at one time. She is almost certainly Town and getting MLed by Smart, who hoped his partner would appear and solidify the wagon. The odds of both Scum being on the wagon are almost nothing or it would've gone through with a lynch, and the odds of it being all Town are impossible since Suz never self-voted.

Fire Starter is only Scum with somebody who isn't lovelygiant, and vice versa.

PEDIT: Newb. Not Scum. Now answer my / Fire's question: why did you give up like you did in 40/41?

PEDIT: On this site, Lovers are informed of their lover-ness.

[Maestro]

Wait, what. You've played more than 20 games on-site before, including a Greater Idea. How did you not already know on-site convention for the Lover role?

[Maestro]

process of elimination, and also because of what he has posted till now

WTF "process of elimination" how? Also, FS has made 2 posts since his opening post. Buddying and a leaning-Scum read on somebody who's been completely inactive, out of thin air. Can we lynch this slot please? It is

NOT

Town.

Also @tea, I understand how you can

independently

read both myself and itlepip as Town given our

independent

reactions to the Suzune "slip" issue, but how do you reconcile those reads and then conclude with the assertion that [Maestro, chilledtea, itlepip, Suzune] are all Town? If so, that also seems far too easy to me to be true, and I wouldn't trust it even if you did have much to back it up.

@itlepip: you still think Suzune slipped, correct? If so, who is her partner?

PEDIT: Why are you voting lovelygiant?

[Maestro]

Ok, fine. If Suzune isn't Scum, who is Scum? Is it still me?

[Maestro]

SHE'S NOT CONFIRMED SCUM BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION

itlepip, answer the fuckign question. Entertain the possibility if you must, but answer it.

[Maestro]

I'm not literally confirmed anything but a fool this game.

Can you scumhunt? It would be really nice if you could scumhunt.

[Maestro]

No, I do not want a reads list. Reads lists are shit. Reads lists =/= scumhunting.

@itlepip: you have no support for a Suzune lynch anymore, admit it. Who is Scum if not her?
@FS: who is Scum if not Smart/tea?

[Maestro]

Honestly, your play bugs me a bit. Are you usually like this as town? You're really aggressive and that doesn't seem to be coming from a town mindset.

Why not?

Meta me yourself. Self-meta isn't useful meta.

PEDIT: Why does everything rely on Suzune for you, pip? Do we have to lynch her to prove she's Town?

[Maestro]

I'm at work.

I didn't see anything directed at me. What did you expect me to be saying?

[Maestro]

Uh, Y U NO PEDIT

I don't understand the tone of 108, itlepip...?

[Maestro]

Suzune, why're you making me paranoid? 107 is opportunistic as fuck.

[Maestro]

I think it was too, I just can't tell what tone he's trying to convey.
I thought it was frustration with you, but I wanted to clarify.

[Maestro]

I'll also note that Maestro's tone is seeming less demanding than my past experience with him. More subtle. Not calling it towny or scummy but acknowledging the difference.

You have how much experience with me? One game? Either way, yeah I'm more cautious here. Game can be over in 2 lynches if we fuck up, or in 1 if we don't. Ofc I'm more cautious here. Less demanding? I disagree.

I kind of feel stupid about it to be honest~

Although this does seem a little "I've been caught" panicky. I'll accept that there's two reasonable sides to the Lynch Suz debate.

No, it doesn't. It soudns defeated. I've been in that place enough as Town to recognize it when I see it - there's no way she's Scum with the reaction she's used. She's not a great player - look at the lack of activity and overall...

fatalistic isn't quite the right word

resigned tone

she's displayed since the "slip" - but she's not Scum.

PEDIT: Why are we still discussing this?

[Maestro]

VOTE: Maestro
PoE and like his posts the least.

These are bad reasons. Why do you like my posts "the least"?

[Maestro]

I think there is a strong argument to be made for that vote. Maestro was in a good position in the game I think a tad of pressure me show us a lot.

This makes almost no sense. Try again, in English this time please.

[Maestro]

look at the lack of activity

You know I am online and active in this game quite as often as I can be. We do not seem to have a lot of overlap in hours, but I would not say I am unactive.

Posting words =/= being an active participant, IMO. You not understanding this concerns me. "You don't say a whole lot about much of anything when you do post" - that's what I'm getting at.

P.S. Not quite sure I understand half of what LG and FS are talking about, since Suzune is kindof interrupting them or assuming they're talking to her half of the time. I'm confused after rereading the top of this page 3 times in a row.

[Maestro]

Hum Dee dum dum.

This isn't an explanation about why you don't like my posts...?

[Maestro]

Ah. I see what I didn't like. It might be your play style. Sort of joking around with every post and, not really all over the place, but not really keeping a focused clear mind through text.

This is what checking meta is for, specifically relatively-recent meta:

Stream-of-consciousness

LG is a much better vote.

[Maestro]

It might be your play style. Sort of joking around with every post and ,not really all over the place, but not really keeping a focused clear mind through text.

[Maestro]

Meh. Meta is a tricky subject - go read some MD threads; don't debate with me here. Meta-things like playstyle aren't useful indicators of alignment, I agree with that. That's actually exactly the conclusion I was supporting by informing FS that my playstyle could be called "stream-of-consciousness" despite my alignment. He said his problems with my posts may be problems mainly with my posting style, so I pointed to my meta, where my playstyle is fairly consistent across alignments. Something isn't clicking in your head here.

What "tone change in posting style" "really pinged you?

And, actually, I haven't critiqued you that much...? I've been saying you're Town for half the game, such as it is. The fact that you're not playing amazingly well as Town isn't my fault, but do you expect me to not call it like I see it? You were talkign yourself about how badly you fucked up on page 2. ????!?!?

[Maestro]

Yeah, I never got to the reread the other day. Been busy.

I think itlepip thought lynching Suzune was going to be way easier and then when the wagon dissipated wasn't sure what to do so he just sat on it and pouted, knowing the vote wasn't actually gonna happen and wanting to seem "genuine" by not switching off.

Ok, so but wouldn't this imply that if itle were Scum his partner was on the wagon with him? and the third person was Town, because she got to L-1 right?

[Maestro]

Nahdia's Town but lovelygiant really wasn't ugh

[Maestro]

Agreed.

chilledtea looks particularly optimistic throughout this whole exchange and the dialogue I had with itlepip rang way more Town than Scum to me. Nahdia - what're your thoughts on that bit? I can go find the part I'm talking about if you didn't already read it in detail.

PEDIT: LOL WRONG in this game in particular we should be Townhunting - FS using PoE and voting me is the only thing keeping me from considering him confScum. Town should be looking for reasons (any reason, really) to call somebody Town in a game where the Scum would normally be so closely linked. They'll be trying to hide it with all their might. That's why I'm not sold on itlepip/chilledtea and it's the main reason I'm less sold on itlepip in general (mainly @Nahdia). I had him in my townpile and you in my Scumpile because lovelygiant was a lurky fucksack. I will lynch {Fire Starter, chilledtea} today, no exceptions.

PEDIT: Nahdia, itlepip is Town. Fucking work with me.

[Maestro]

Agreed.

chilledtea looks particularly optimistic throughout this whole exchange and the dialogue I had with itlepip rang way more Town than Scum to me. Nahdia - what're your thoughts on that bit? I can go find the part I'm talking about if you didn't already read it in detail.

This is @191. That post does not look to me like Scum desperation or distancing.

[Maestro]

There are 4 town, 2 scum. In this game you don't need a good reason town read someone, you need a good reason to scum read someone.

There is a 66% chance a person is town in this game. And that is if you pick them randomly. If someone seems in sync with your thoughts then it is better to go along with their thoughts, no?

Anyways. If I am scum, I would be super dumb to try and buddy someone like this. Like my chances of getting lynched is 16% and that is if you pick me randomly. This is why I thought that scum would try to not be too aggressive.

What the actual fuck is going on ITT

[Maestro]

didn't mean to quote those, I was going to say something else about them but I guess it doesn't matter now, my b

[Maestro]

chilledtea's vote on itlepip was opportunistic as heck considering they were saying they townread them and scumread my slot like 5 posts prior lol.

This is another fucking strike against itlepip being Scum, dude. Are you reading your own posts?

[Maestro]

gurl

EBWODP

[Maestro]

Fair enough.

[Maestro]

Wait, this is good. If itlepip doesn't hammer, he's confScum with chilledtea.

[Maestro]

That would force us to assume you're Town tho

[Maestro]

Wait, this is good. If itlepip doesn't hammer, he's confScum with chilledtea.

This = me "licking my lips with opportunism"?

[Maestro]

Jesus this page.

V/LA until tomorrow night

[Maestro]

Boom. Back. Reading up and stuff in a bit.

[Maestro]

Finally.

[Maestro]

That's as awful as a reads list. These are not the way to go. Scum will automatically think "ok, I can NK this person and have exactly this much support for a lynch on this person tomorrow because all these people posted about being ok with their lynch" lolno

There's plenty of theory discussion to back up what I'm saying. If I have time, I'll go through ISOs in a moment for anything that heavily pinged me from specific people, but I'm not going to put everybody in any kind of order; it just allows Scum to make a more informed NK.

[Maestro]

But, really, at this point half the playerlist has been replaced. I'm going to have some issues here.

[Maestro]

There are no night kills in this game. It is nightless.

Oh. Wow, I'm an idiot.

I'm not asking for an order. I'm asking you for people you're willing to lynch, and people you're not willing to lynch.

Very willing to lynch { FS/Soldier , SS/tea } and in this game that's all we need. The rest doesn't matter and may change on reread, but I doubt it.

[Maestro]

I have Chilled as town because I can't think of a single partner that makes sense. Like, Me/Chilled could work from other points of view than mine, but from my POV it can't be.

What the actual fuck.

[Maestro]

Also:

Weigh in everyone, D1 ends in just under 2 days.

Time left: (expired on 2016-04-01 12:42:49)

nice try

[Maestro]

Yes it is

[Maestro]

Sigh. I wish I had time.

@Nahdia: why itle > chilledtea/Soldier? I'm more interested in getting itle off of Suzune to have him hammer whichever of those two we get to L-1.

[Maestro]

It should be interesting to see who puts the rest of the two votes on me. Chances are both scum will be on this train. If we assume ittlepip's one of the scum, either maestro or thesoldier will have to vote me if not both. Thesoldier's opinion was that I am not scum because I am not likely to be anyone's partner.

This is fucking terrible confbias. I've wanted you gone since before you replaced in because your predecessor was worse than you are. Prepared to hammer.

PEDIT: gtfo chilledtea I don't even fucking care anymore

VOTE: tea

[Maestro]

self-righteous shit

[Maestro]

Excuse me?

[Maestro]

OH well played.

itlepip was the third vote I thought I was still on you when I thought I was hammer.
And you think

I'm

Scum (with him?!) because he hopped right back on you after me? How does that make sense?

That makes this easy then. Soldier (or Soldier's slot, if he gets replaced) hammers you and we win. You two are Scum.

Anything else?

[Maestro]

Ok what the fuck I keep getting this game mixed up, need to read up sorry

[Maestro]

poor RC

VOTE: Nahdia

[Maestro]

you fucker

[Maestro]

You had me sold on RC - I thought he was voting his partner to distance.

PEDIT: ...wtf is going on

[Maestro]

Right - forgot that we won when there was only 2 of you left.

gg

[Maestro]

Hooray for no VC in awhile and no updated OP

[Maestro]

Yes. Well done, but you couldn't pull it through. RC did us a huge favor.

[Maestro]

I thought we'd have to wait out another apathy lynch on RC's slot but then he replaced in and hooray.

[Maestro]

Hey, don't blame RC. Suzune went AWOL and RC was just calling it like he saw it.

[Maestro]

Me and Maestro FTW

FTFY

[Maestro]

I dislike these kinds of endgames. Initial reads don't matter. What you made happen matters. Sorry?

[Maestro]

Not at all; you did you

[Maestro]

Nothing wrong with that

[Maestro]

I specifically said you're NOT bad