Mini 1762: Game Over

[Raskolnikov]

As long as everyone agrees to get syndesis after I flip town, feel free to end the day.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This thread is in dire need of GiF content and for non-tired Synd to weigh in. I'm not for sitting around not getting everyone's input simply given that we have Nino and 1 to 2 other clears.

[GuyInFreezer]

Saving this thread in (expired on 2016-04-14 15:53:46)

[Syndesis]

I see a lot of being swamped in my future so this is my best attempt at isodiving etc.

GiF

: I still have a rather negative reaction to ink's posting, but that's so far back that I can't pin down context or reasons for why, and I know I have a lot of syntax biases so that's null for now. Nothing jumps out at me from GiF's portion of the iso; there's a couple of mixed things that bother me and a couple that ring town (1656 has been teetering on this fence for a few days but I'll hesitantly call it town).

Ras

: Probably scum? They don't seem to be reacting in the way I would expect if they were town, and through the earlier days they've been pretty...coasty, I guess? Is that the right word? I thought it was because they were a PR. I'll check the wagons D3 again but for a lot of my Robster wagon it felt like they were running interference.

MoI

: Mostly townreading Rubix, mostly on the basis of tone, I guess? There's a lot of stuff that tends to correspond to my town mindset and just generally there's nothing that gives me pause (I only did a flyover on this section though). MoI not so much? Hammer of GR isn't ~super townvibes~ and yet I have a hard time figuring out a team including MoI, so I dunno. I think the fact that they're putting so much energy into generating discussion has been town though.

kirroha

: I had a pretty strong townread on her at some point but now I don't remember why and I'm struggling to decide if that was just consensus reading or a towntell that I could only pick up as it happened. I'm not going to pick through her early iso too much because it's going to make things blurry; I think some of the things MoI brought up are relevant (some are kind of tunnelly). I dislike that she's been coasting but that can be said of almost everyone in this game; it just feels worse from her. IIRC she did counterpush the GR wagon too but I don't think she's scum with Ras. (I think? upon looking at the final VC again this may not actually be the case, but yeah.)

implosion

: I don't have a very strong or solid read on implosion but if I had to pick I'd go with town (would reconsider in the event of Ras flipping town, probably). Early to middle posting is a bit rough but I really like what he's been saying in the last few days. There's also some coasty bits, but, again, everyone in the game; plus he's stopped coasting so I'm okay with that. Tenuously town?


To do at some point (poke me if I don't):
- Read through D1 in context looking at Shortcut?
- Reread GR's iso?
- Look at D3 vote movement again?

I am apparently in a content-providing mood, so AMA right now!

[MagnaofIllusion]

I eagerly await GiF’s indicated posting.

I am up for lynching Rask or Syndesis.

I’m skeptical that after yesterday went down that you have Synd as a viable lynch candidate is you believe Rask is scum.

Because Rask scum means that both Golden and Rask would have chosen to bus their partner Synd as opposed to going for a me lynch instead which they could have egged Radiant and his ego into I’m sure.

And Rask Town means that scum chose to bus each other (Synd and Golden both were on each other much of the day) instead of going with a Rask possibility lynch which already had Implosion and had my support. Better chance of survival for Golden if the default deadline lynch wagon choice sits on Rask at L-1 with me there to butt heads with Radiant about whether Rask is a good lynch or not.

Either way I really don’t see them as possible partners at this stage.

This post worries me that we are looking at a Kirroha / Implosion or GIF team.

As long as everyone agrees to get syndesis after I flip town, feel free to end the day.

I’m of two minds on this post.

First if Rask actually is Town I’m peeved that he’s be so willing to roll over and try link lynches like this when we are only guaranteed two lynchs to get at least 1 scum. Especially given all I’ve had to say about why Synd doesn’t make much sense as a Golden partner based on how yesterday shook out.

On the other hand this is really on a base level AtE “look at me I’m resigned Town” posting I can see from scum. And Rask still has never done that Kirroha re-read he mentioned and when I pointed out it never came said “Oh, I’ll get to it”.

Rask – Synd case … make one!

[Raskolnikov]

I did re-read her. Bad assocation with GR, and nothing interesting with syndesis. Individually her votes make sense and I don't see anything wrong with her day 1-3.

Syndesis herself I already talked about but I'll summarise again. Bad jump off of GR's slot (before gr replaced) near the end of day 1 onto two others, apathetic d2. First serious push from her is onto GR mid day 3 at the point where scum can afford to bus. The push itself was weak af and didn't really pick up until people started suspecting/bringing attention to both of them.

I can talk about the list she posted today though, thats new. Weak reads on everyone to allow her to vote anyone, and notice how her reads on me is weaker than it should be when she was convinced of me/gr partners yesterday. If she was town and actually in doubt about my alignment I think she should be offended by what I'm saying (lynch her after me) but she straight up doesn't care which doesn't make sense. I'd only completely ignore someone saying what I'm saying if I was 100% they were scum but in her read she doesn't even say that but leaves it open to change when she "looks back at the d3 wagons".

[Raskolnikov]

I guess it could be GiF/syn though.
If MoI is scum at this point he's scum making more sense than any of the town.
Nino's town and probably kirroha but they're not really showing any depth of thought today with analysis or association. Nino especially is disappointing because as conf-town (that probably gets NK'd tonight) she should be playing her heart out today :/

[Raskolnikov]

First if Rask actually is Town I’m peeved that he’s be so willing to roll over and try link lynches like this when we are only guaranteed two lynchs to get at least 1 scum. Especially given all I’ve had to say about why Synd doesn’t make much sense as a Golden partner based on how yesterday shook out.

If at the end of the day I'm wrong and we lose in lylo from the return lynch, I can still say I tried and look to see where I misread. It's way more preferable to take something I'm 90% on by trying to force a 1 for 1 than to step back and hope other people just lynch correctly after I'm gone (with this town my confidence is almost 0). Even if it's a mislynch none of you can really criticise me for that after you mislynch me; the game would be more or less a collective failure. I also feel forced into this because anything less memorable generally gets ignored after death and I'd rather be right/wrong (because if you are wrong you can learn from it) than essentially dying for nothing and having no real impact on the game.

[GuyInFreezer]

First of all I would lynch Rask in a heartbeat if it wasn't for my gut is yelling Rask-town. I guess my next step is figuring out why my gut is telling me that he's town.

[GuyInFreezer]

Keep suggesting to 1v1 with self after losing a scum member is probably one of the reason.

[GuyInFreezer]

What the hell?! IaI is like one of the least scummy dudes out there. Seriously. I'd rather lynch Robster, even though in his recent entrance he was a lot townier than his predecessors. I'd rather have no lynch than to lynch someone whom I've gotten nothing but a town read on throughout the whole game.

VOTE: Golden Robster

But then...

WHO'S ONLINE POST NOW. IF THERE ARE 6-7 (0-1 people are currently on the wagon) PEOPLE THEN HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET A TOJAM (beeboy. Was town.) OR BBT (Also town.) LYNCH INSTEAD

we have the votes for gr then

VOTE: Golden

Are we seriously ignoring Rask, whose apparently content with jumping off the BBT wagon to the Kill wagon and then to the IaI wagon and finally my wagon.

Are we seriously ignoring Syndesis, who lead the IaI wagon and started it without evidence.

Are we seriously ignoring Tojam (Town) who crumbed a role and publicly told us that he has a pr role.

Are we seriously ignoring BBT (Town) whose content in saving his own ass and outright publicly stating that the other wagons are completely fine in order to save his own ass.

[GuyInFreezer]

Yeah 891 also makes me think that Rask is not scum.

[Raskolnikov]

Who do you think is the scumteam?

[Raskolnikov]

Nvm I just saw 1688

[implosion]

Who do you think is the scumteam?

I still want to hear an answer to this question. Just because he hunts mostly by poe doesn't mean he shouldn't be able to give a most likely scumteam at this point in the game. I also want to hear Synd's answer to this; I have a better sense of her person-specific reads but she's hinted at some teams she finds unlikely and I'd like some elaboration on that.

[Raskolnikov]

Well he should be posting more soon, I doubt this was what he meant when he said save the thread.

[GuyInFreezer]

sure I can do a recap, if the quotes didn't hint it off.

kirroha -> (implosion/syn) -> Rask -> MoI is where I'm standing at rn. sorting stuff in parenthesis is my next course of action.

[GuyInFreezer]

why did kirroha went so below for me all of the sudden?
I have no clue how exactly it happened but it just happened to turn out like that while I was sorting.

Nano is town, and based on the GR's panic near the end of D1, I believe rask and syn lean toward more town. (So I guess implosion->Syndesis).

But then implo is a gs inno. So his mathematical chance of being scum is lower. (Syndesis -> implosion)

MoI his general contribution looks town. I'm gonna admit I didn't really paid that much attention to him much in terms of figuring out the alignment and assumed that he's town but the only place he can be switched in my readlist... is with kirroha.

[GuyInFreezer]

So part of my next course of action would be to find out if I want to persue an association or a mathematical probability.

[GuyInFreezer]

So after I quoted the late D1 stuffs, I thought hard about what can I assume and not assume. kirroha's quotes, tbh, I have no clue what conclusion I can draw from that. Usually rushed situation gets the most honest reaction thus my decision to look there. But it's hard man.

[Metrion]

Vote Count 4.1

Raskolnikov

(2)

: implosion, NinoMasaki

(L-2)

Syndesis

(1)

: Raskolvnikov

(L-3)

Kirroha

(1)

: MagnaofIllusion

(L-3)

Not Voting

(3)

: GuyInFreezer, Syndesis, Kirroha.

With 7 players alive, majority is 4 today.

[Syndesis]

I can talk about the list she posted today though, thats new. Weak reads on everyone to allow her to vote anyone, and notice how her reads on me is weaker than it should be when she was convinced of me/gr partners yesterday. If she was town and actually in doubt about my alignment I think she should be offended by what I'm saying (lynch her after me) but she straight up doesn't care which doesn't make sense. I'd only completely ignore someone saying what I'm saying if I was 100% they were scum but in her read she doesn't even say that but leaves it open to change when she "looks back at the d3 wagons".

I waffle as all alignments...

It's because your chain lynches are bad? Whatever your alignment, it's not happening.

Who do you think is the scumteam?

I still want to hear an answer to this question. Just because he hunts mostly by poe doesn't mean he shouldn't be able to give a most likely scumteam at this point in the game. I also want to hear Synd's answer to this; I have a better sense of her person-specific reads but she's hinted at some teams she finds unlikely and I'd like some elaboration on that.

This is something I'd need to finish trawling for associatives to do and I don't really have the time right now. (I'm swamped for the next week or so.) Just looking at my notes though... I'd say Ras+GiF with an outside chance of kirroha? ...actually I'm not sure I'm not just sticking two players together at random at this point. Ugh. Third scum is really just...not clicking for me, for some reason.

And now I'll return to crying alone in my corner.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA from approximately 5pm today until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

Since this day is relatively fresh I see no reason to rush forward. I’m happy to wait to see the fruit of GiF’s final analysis before I posit some of my theories.

As long as everyone agrees to get syndesis after I flip town, feel free to end the day.

Here’s the thing – if you get lynched today I don’t think anyone cares about your chaining. Personally I will not be voting Synd tomorrow if you flipped Town. I don’t feel strongly about your reasoning for requesting this stance or your reads as they have played out this game. So if you are town promptly throw away your “Town is going to do this if I get lynched” notions and just play the game.

Why do you think scum was in a good position to bus Day 3? Actually that was the worst time to bus given that the mass-claim had flushed out all the Town power-roles and had not resulted in any identification of scum. It would have been far better tactically to work for another mislynch and make today LYLO.

[Raskolnikov]

Syn/gr had to bus day 3 because they were both under suspicion and one of them needed to come out looking better.

[Raskolnikov]

Oh and if you're taking everything from yesterday/today at face value you have another thing coming.

Lynch syn or me or both, please.