Open 633: Near Vanilla-GAME OVER

[MagnaofIllusion]

:v I'll hammer if no objections to waiting

Could you give me an hour - very busy today. Thanks!

[heuristically_alone]

Hello everyone. Feel free to call me Alone. I could read 38 pages on the current progress, unless someone wants to give me a quick run down....?

Welcome. I concur with everyone else, you should probably read the whole game from the beginning.

Questions:

When you randomed on Snarky, was that just between the top wagons on the most recent votecount, or out of the list of all players?

What is your opinion of the Nosferatu and Bellaphant slots?

Nosferatu, at this point, it seems that Nosferatu has been leaning on Snarky and CoM as scum just like me, so I'm thinking town.

Bellaphant, it's hard to be sure. It seems that Bellaphant would post super detailed posts pretty much the same way whether town or scum. Since I'm thinking Snarky and CoM are scum at this point, I'll have to say town leaning at this point.

[MagnaofIllusion]

We had no trouble getting ChurchOfMercy up to L-1. People kept unvoting because they didn't want them in hammer range but for the vast majority of the day, ChurchOfMercy was the default lynch option. It's only now that another option emerged. What trouble are you talking about?

See this is the kind of response that drive me nuts. Why would you not want someone you read as scum not within hammering range? Especially when the game Day is well past 3/4ths done. I’m sorry but that sort of ‘caution’ is just an exercise in thread inflation. The thread has blossomed from 27 pages when I went V/LA to 40 now. And I will argue with you as much as you want that this hardly constitutes a benefit to Town – a good portion of the thread in that page range is more or less noise IMO.

So another lynch option has emerged? So what. Are you saying it is a better lynch option than CoM. I disagree completely. CoM has been scummy this entire day. But let me address the “lack of depth” accusation you’ve been throwing my way multiple times since I went V/LA. How is my CoM read lacking in depth?

There is nothing in CoM’s ISO that indicates they are actually interested in finding scum. Let’s talk about the many ways this is evident.

1. The contradiction of jumping on Creeper’s wagon but later in the day Town reading the slot as “low hanging fruit”.
2. The insistence in voting the Kain slot (who had not posted in thread) over the claimed scum Bella slot (who actually had posted in thread) with the justification that Kain was obviously more scummy for having flaked yet not being able to support that position with anything other than “you don’t know site meta”.
3. Alternating waves of pointless sarcasm, claiming scum and Appeals to Emotion and Fear.
4. Hopping on every wagon that looks to save their own necks with that being the sole justification.
5. Complete void of scum-hunting from the slot.

Again – this is a summary. Do you disagree with my statements here?

I’ll continue with my discussion of your “lack of depth when we discuss my Severa read.

Are you saying Severa is mafia with ChurchOfMercy or that he's mafia in the event ChurchOfMercy flips town? If the former, do you think he was bussing?

My townread on him comes from how he reacted to the case on him. The sudden aggression looked like town that thought they finally found something strong to push on. Severa wasn't in any real danger of being lynched so I don't know why he as mafia would panic at SnarkySnowman catching him and push back hard rather than stay on the bus/mislynch of ChurchOfMercy and put off Snarky for the following day.

Yes I’m saying I think Severa makes a reasonable candidate for scum with CoM. But let’s get back to my “lack of depth” of read. Bring up Severa’s ISO and read along.

Severa replaces in and her first posts 296, 302and 302 are all more or less fluff. In 302 she suggests she’s OK with the CoM wagon. More short, contently posts follow without a vote until finally we get a vote at 337. Here next handful of posts are more fluff basically re-iterating her vote on CoM. In fact her first alignment indicative post about anyone other than CoM is 576 where she makes suggests Snarky is scum with CoM and is trying to generate a counter-wagon on her.

To this point I see a player who has hopped on the dominant wagon with little reasoning and isn’t looking at anyone from a scum hunting perspective how doesn’t address her. In fact during this period I asked her for reads (see 445 as example) which she dutifully ignored. This ISO doesn’t read as Town looking to find scum. It reads very much to me as possible bussing partner.

612 is her first vote-switch to Snarky. Her reasoning is basically superficial – he doesn’t have reason for thinking Severa is scum. CoM is still scum “on principal” at this point but now Snarky could be scum with them or scum wanting to line up a mislynch on Severa. Her next post is a vote back to CoM and claiming Snarky and CoM are buddies.

Again through here we see no interest in looking at anyone other than the one player calling her scum. She still fails to interact with CoM in any meaningful fashion.

618 is her post where she justifies her vote move back Snarkly because “the wagon is more interesting”. This is where my scumdar really started triggering on her. The justification of moving from a solid wagon to start a new one on a supposed CoM because it “is more interesting” is very scummy. Note this is before Snarky’s actual case was made.

Snarky makes his case at 613. Is it great? Nope. But it does absolutely valid points. His point about post 312 I agree with as evidenced above. His point that Severa was “de-railing” the case made by Kill on Bella was pretty nonsensical. But that doesn’t make it scummy. And the thrust of his Bella / Severa discussion is revolves around the fact that Severa isn’t willing to look at Bella at all through the prism of someone looking for other scum. And he was absolutely right on that issue – as I noted above Severa had gone out of her way to refuse to look at anyone besides CoM and Snarky. Generally a ham-handed presentation but with valid points.

From this point Severa latches onto Snarky and begins the attempt to move the wagon from CoM to Snarky. 620 is a direct request to stop lynching CoM simply because Snarky is scum. She further now starts to inject doubt about CoM as scum at 621 by suggesting that Snarky is scum regardless of CoM’s alignment. She continues to straddle the fence on CoM at 631

This is where I began to seriously consider Severa as a possible partner for CoM. Because many of the accusations she throws at JMO I’ve highlighted above as exactly what she was doing – no scum-hunting or any desire to actually discern alignments. But now thanks to Snarky’s case there is something for her to try and exploit as scum behavior aside from CoM’s scum play. And when I question her about trying to derail the CoM wagon she either tries to shrug it off “I would have done it much earlier” or calls me scum chainsawing for Snarky.

This is more or less exactly where I went V/LA.

I see an experienced partner hiding behind an alt (which was clear from her comments and she does not deny) who saw an opening to push a counterwagon to a partner and took it. Of course if CoM is by some reason not scum that associative tell goes out the window.

But again to address my point – how exactly does my read “lack depth”. Just because I lack time on the weekends to generate a large post like this doesn’t mean I’m not thinking about my stances.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Wow. An hour to the minute to produce that one response. I'm sifting through the noise from this weekend. I'll post as I can but feel free to hammer CoM. I don't want any shenanigans surrounding the wait for deadline.

[ChurchOfMercy]

VOTE: ChurchofMercy

We were town.

[OceanWind]

Severa was being very obvious about derailing the wagon. For a player like ChurchOfMercy who will probably get lynched early game, a partner's best move would be to bus, and bus in a way that'll get maximum towncred.

Severa's vote on SnarkySnowman was the first vote on the wagon. Based on many player's readslists, it was apparent that most of them preferred ChurchOfMercy as a lynch. So, why would an apparently skilled player like Severa hop off of the wagon and put himself in the limelight? If he fails, and ChurchOfMercy gets lynched anyways, he's the top target the following day. That'll take out 2/3 of his team in two days if he can't talk himself out. Let's say he succeeds and SnarkySnowman gets lynched. ChurchOfMercy is still a likely lynch on day two anyways considering how useless they've been. Day three, town will notice who derailed a wagon on flipped mafia to mislynch a townie on day one, and Severa gets into the hot seat again. While it's possible the majority would have a similar thought process to me, it's also possible most people will think like you and lynch Severa. I have a hard time reconciling the move as one a partner would make.

Why do you think mafia would be more inclined to save a partner who was the default lynch by risking their own skin with a small chance of success?

I'll keep posting but that was a hammer so I want to get at least this bit in before the mod closes the thread.

[ChurchOfMercy]

Dude, we are town. There's no reason for us to lie at this point. Talking as if we are going to flip scum is only hurting yourself.

[ChurchOfMercy]

Wtf, Ocean is scum. Runs away as soon as I call him out.

[kelbris]

vote count 1.15

Bellaphant (0): none
Severa (1): SnarkySnowman

Jim

Heuristically_Alone (0): none

jmo16mla

SnarkySnowman (4): OceanWind, Xisiqomelir, ollie, Nosferatu
MagnaofIllusion (0): none
Imperium (0): none
Killthestory (0): none
ChurchOfMercy (hydra, Klingoncelt and Albert B Rampage) (8) [LYNCHED]: Lowell, Imperium, Bellaphant, MagnaofIllusion, acryon, Severa, Heuristically_alone, ChurchofMercy
Lowell (0): none
Nosferatu (0): none
acryon (0): none
OceanWind (0): none

KTthecreeper

Xisiqomelir (0): none
Ollie (0): none
not voting (1): killthestory
With 14 players alive, it takes 8 votes to lynch.
day 1 has begun, it will end in (expired on 2016-04-18 19:01:46)

[kelbris]

It was a long and arduous day, and yet, the town had finally come to a decision. It was to be ChurchofMercy, that would hang. As the noose was hung around his neck and the floor dropped from the stage ending his life, the town wondered-had they made the right choice or not? After a quick check of CoM's house, it was revealed that

ChurchofMercy:

Vanilla Townie

had bee lynched day 1. Night one begins now, it will end in (expired on 2016-04-20 17:01:46)

[kelbris]

As the night drew to a close and day took it's place. It was noticed that a member of the town was missing. After a quick head count, they found that Xisiqomelir was not at the gathering. When checking his house, the rest of the town found his corpse in his lounge room. Upon closer inspection of his residence, it was determined that

Xisiqomelir:

Vanilla Townie

had been killed night 1.

[kelbris]

vote count 2.01

Bellaphant (0): none
Severa (0): none

Jim

Heuristically_Alone (0): none

jmo16mla

SnarkySnowman (0): none
MagnaofIllusion (0): none
Imperium (0): none
Killthestory (0): none
Lowell (0): none
Nosferatu (0): none
acryon (0): none
OceanWind (0): none
Ollie (0): none
not voting: Bellaphant, Severa, Heuristically_Alone, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion, Imperium, killthestory, Lowell, Nosferatu, Acryon, OceanWind, Ollie
With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
day 2 has begun, it will end in (expired on 2016-05-04 20:01:46)

[OceanWind]

Glad I wasn't killed. I didn't want to die with my last words being that Severa was town. He's my biggest read change from overnight reading. I had a pretty strong townread there but after going through his ISO while I was reading MagnaOfIllusion's case, and the knowledge that ChurchOfMercy was town, my read reversed.

It's true that Severa focused only on Church for the most part, but when called out by Snarky, he responded by pushing him back. What I found most scummy though is how he was both negotiating with Imperium to lynch Snarky on D2 while setting up Imperium to take the fall for the Church mislynch.

I'm fine lynching CoM today if you join me on SS tomorrow or make it happen if I'm dead. Is that a deal?

I don't want you agreeing that he could be scum or anything like that.
Do you agree, in sickness and in wealth, that your vote will be married to SS's slot tomorrow if I vote CoM?

On hindsight, this does quite a bit to advance a mafia wincon by setting up consecutive mislynches assuming Snarky isn't Severa's partner.

IF you're wrong here and I have to choose between you and Oceanwind, I'd take Oceanwind. Sorry.

This sets up suspicion of Imperium while also taking my side. Considering Imperium and I have had a strong presence in the game, setting us up against each other creates a ton of town vs town conflict and also pushes Imperium on the backfoot. I think mafia is hoping that their credibility would be shot from being so sure on Church.

And like I said, this is if you in fact derailed my SS wagon to push the lynch back onto town. If you're going to hit scum I don't have an issue falling into line obediently. But if we're going to be doing this forever and you won't be hitting scum for it I'll start to have a problem.

This is a pure burden-of-proficiency argument where he is setting up to discredit Imperium and shoving the responsibility for the mislynch squarely on them. This despite the fact that the majority of the town wanted Church dead and we didn't have the numbers to switch regardless of Imperium's push there. Another issue I have is the vagueness of his threat. "I'll start to have a problem" leaves him open to either discredit them or push for a mislynch without committing to a position.

This is the most blatant chainsaw I've seen in my life.

This "chainsaw" accusation directed at MagnaOfIllusion is also a really shallow read. If anything, based on what I've seen so far, I think MagnaOfIllusion would be the type as mafia to play the long game rather than put his weight behind defending a mostly useless partner.

The consistent theme in Severa's posts is to set up lynches for the following day on Snarky, Imperium, and MagnaOfIllusion (for the last two, I think even if he couldn't get them lynched, he's trying to put them on the backfoot and make it harder for them to influence the game). I think he's backing me as a counterbalance to them to stir up conflict.

I don't have the same confidence in SnarkySnowman being mafia that I did D1. There's the possibility that he and Severa are cross-bussing but not very likely. Suspicion of MagnaOfIllusion also abated after seeing the case. I stand by my comments that Severa's play around Church did not make sense as a bus but I could see how someone that was so confident in Church being mafia could see it as such.

VOTE: Severa

(This is interchangeable with Jim/heuristically_alone, my other strong scumread.)

Several issues I have with Jim's posting. I can go more in-depth but a short summary:

• His reads don't mesh with his comments on the game. He has issues with MagnaOfIllusion's posts but puts him as a townread, then claims he mixed him up with Lowell. Hard townread on jmo16mla/Snarky is premature.
• Logical inconsistencies between several of his reads, and some reads such as the ones on KTthecreeper and Imperium involve jumping through too many hoops. Imperium is his strongest townread because KTthecreeper was verbose after Imperium said that newer mafia aren't verbose which is a ridiculous stretch.
  
  
• Having hard scumreads on Acryon and Church just through process of elimination despite not having confident townreads elsewhere.

heuristically_alone contributed nothing to the game in the time he was here. Most of his posting has been non-game relevant. I'll give him a bit more time to get caught up, but I'm very confident today's and tomorrow's lynches need to be Severa and heuristically_alone (in any order).

[SnarkySnowman]

VOTE: Severa

Nothing has really changed for me overnight. This still needs rope.

[Nosferatu]

So we (sans Imperium) ignored my comment on severa because?

[Severa]

Lynch me then.
SS is scum.

That's why I don't sheep people. my reads are just better.

[Killthestory]

VOTE: Severa

alright i know its scummy but im gonna say it anyway. my reads were, yours werent, sheep me to victory.

[Severa]

KTS if you were actually good you wouldn't feel the need to be such a dipshit about it.

[Ollie]

I still think the tone of Severa's posts is town, they're wreckless. She's like an amalgamation of several posters I know who attract attention every game. & she's not even bothering to defend herself.

@SEVERA

we should see some of your previous games, doesn't matter if they're on a different site.

The rest of this post is about Lowell... At the beginning of the game he was gathering allies, started to do something with them, then just ducked out of the game... During this time, he didn't respond to a big post I mostly directed at him. 541 This is yet more evasion which he was doing earlier in the game, that kind of thing was why he fell into my scum leans.

Part of the reason for my preference for a SS lynch was to do with how sturdy the CoM wagon was throughout a large portion of day 1. Why is this an issue? Well if you draw a line in the sand early in the day & get your vote sorted then you can just coast along never having to change it. Safety in numbers too etc. I find it hard to believe there was no scum on that wagon with the way it played out. Lowell's vote was made really early on April 5th 157 & it stayed until the flip. His participation fell way off after that. & there was this which was never fleshed out or followed up on despite it being questioned, counting that as more evasion as well...

^^^ this is a scummy post

Futile gathering of allies. Parks vote. Evasion. Lowell's day 1. VOTE: Lowell

[Severa]

Fuck off.

If you think I'm town you're going to vote SS.

[Killthestory]

KTS if you were actually good you wouldn't feel the need to be such a dipshit about it.

LOL we got a c a s e of ad hominem on the field. why so aggressive now and not before?

anyway, i think thats the only way to go about this. im better at reads, sheep me and we win

[Severa]

I think I'm blacklisting you from here on out.

[Killthestory]

cool dude, tell me that post game after ive destroyed your mafia team, k?

[Ollie]

Fuck off.

If you think I'm town you're going to vote SS.

Why are you so eager to lynch SS?

Show me some of your past games.

[Nosferatu]

Severa's whole case on how SS shouldn't have a scum read on her is a prime example of why I hate read lists like the one SS provided. I have no idea why these types of readlists have become prominent recently but it seriously needs to stop. Making an ordered list from town to scum with little to no explanations at the time of the read is unhelpful for town and beneficial to scum. If SS had explained his SOLE FUCKING SCUM READ as soon as he declared it, I for one would not be suspecting the severa read to be disingenuous.

The whole fucking idea that it's an ok thing announce reads but not go in depth AT ALL is absolutely trash. I'm not necessarily one to talk seeing as I often make votes and not explain those immediately, but when I suggest a possible lynch on someone, I make damn sure to explain why the hell I'm proposing to do so.

This is why I don't know how to sort SS, because I can't know if he fabricated the read on severa or not because of this shitty new read list meta.

TLDR SS post more so I can tonally read your sorry ass.