Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Robert2424]

Well, props to Jack for put his words into action. I did say vote me if you think I'm lying more or less. But I imagine people might jump lynching me simply cause I said I don't like day one lynches.

@H_A that last post. Don't try getting on my good side by repeating and agreeing with me. If you didn't look so scummy the town would be in allot better shape. I would say more but it make me look like an ass.

[Zulfy]

No te vayas
No me dejes
Quédate conmigo
Un ratito más

Votecount 1.13

heuristically_alone (L-2)

: Keyser, Floof, iraonavp, toolenduso, JFSF

iraonavp

: bins

Zachstralkita

:xyzzy, heuristically

Robert2424

: Jaack, Tyler

Not voting

:Robert2424, Zachstralkita, Dunnstral

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-05-06 16:00:00)

Note: This votecount includes the post by Tyler the Creator just below.

[Tyler the Creator]

unvote;
vote:robert

[Dunnstral]

I think at this point either they're both town or they're both scum.

I definitely still think it's possible for robert to be town and H_A to be mafia even pretty likely

I do understand why robert would out his role there - why are people starting to vote robert here? I personally believe he's town and that h_a is possible mafia regardless of what robert is

[Dunnstral]

Robert would be little more than a named townie with only the macho modifier. Since doc is slightly better than bg, h_a would be slightly more useful than ira. So the "best" lynch in this scenario would be robert, and then have ira protect h_a and h_a protect someone aside from ira.

Assuming at least one is scum, then once again Robert is the best lynch, as it's highly doubtful that a macho townie with no night role exists in a game with just a lone doc/bg. If one of ira/h_a is scum, Robert almost certainly is as well.

I guess there is the possibility they are all scum pulling a ridiculous gambit, but that is infinitesimally unlikely and would become obvious by d3.

VOTE: robert2424

Most logical place to start.

I'd much prefer if h_a protected ira and ira protected nobody; regardless of which role is "more useful" I definitely believe ira's claim while I"m not sure on h_a, and that arrangement would be much better for the town i think

All scum? That's not really a possibility since two of them claimed protective roles and then nobody else did (how would they know there wasn't going to be anyone else claiming a protective role, and why wouldn't there be one in the game?)

Robert's role makes sense if they're all town - can't be protected in a setup with 2 protective roles

[Floof]

I still want a H_A lynch.
I feel as though whenever wagons move this late it is a result of a wagon moving off scum.

[Jaack]

I think at this point either they're both town or they're both scum.

I definitely still think it's possible for robert to be town and H_A to be mafia even pretty likely

I do understand why robert would out his role there - why are people starting to vote robert here? I personally believe he's town and that h_a is possible mafia regardless of what robert is

There are four scenarios:

1. All three claimants are town
2. Two of them are town, the other is scum
3. Two of them are scum, the other is town
4. They are all scum

Scenario 4 is ridiculous but in the 1/10000 chance it is true, it doesn't matter who we lynch first.

Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.
Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.

In scenario 3, Robert has to be scum. Scum counterclaiming scum with protective roles in a game with a macho townie is absurd.

Scenario 1 is unlikely but not unreasonable.

This means the three possible arrangements are all town; Robert and h_a scumbuddies; Robert and ira scumbuddies.


If these are in fact the three possibilities, lynching Robert gives us the most info on a town flip. A town flip from h_a does not really help us.

[Jaack]

Of course a scum flip is the best case scenario

[toolenduso]

I mean, you make some salient points. But there are a couple of points not quite making it all the way through my head:

Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.

Wouldn't it only make sense for Robert to have been trying to stop HA's lynch, given the fact that Robert didn't claim until

after

ira counterclaimed? Put another way, ira was not in danger -- so how could scumRobert's claim have been a means of getting scumIra out of the noose?

And if it is the case that Robert-ira doesn't make sense as a scum team, then doesn't that change your possible arrangements to {all three are town} or {Robert and HA are scum together; ira is town}?

Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.

I don't believe I've ever played with a macho role and I don't really understand why it would make more sense to have a macho role with two protective town PRs than with one protective town PR.

[Jaack]

I mean, you make some salient points. But there are a couple of points not quite making it all the way through my head:

Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.

Wouldn't it only make sense for Robert to have been trying to stop HA's lynch, given the fact that Robert didn't claim until

after

ira counterclaimed? Put another way, ira was not in danger -- so how could scumRobert's claim have been a means of getting scumIra out of the noose?

And if it is the case that Robert-ira doesn't make sense as a scum team, then doesn't that change your possible arrangements to {all three are town} or {Robert and HA are scum together; ira is town}?

The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.

Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.

I don't believe I've ever played with a macho role and I don't really understand why it would make more sense to have a macho role with two protective town PRs than with one protective town PR.

Well macho town with no night role is almost 100% pointless. Macho is primarily used to balance a powerful role in a game with a doctor (e.g. a Cop+Doc is really powerful, while a Macho Cop+Doc is reasonable). There isn't really any reason for a Macho VT to exist in general. In order for such a role to come into play, both a doc and a nk would have to target what is essentially a VT. In order for that role to make any amount of sense, there would have to be multiple protects. Even then, it still seems weird, particularly if Robert is the only Macho townie.

Doc+BG is weird. Macho VT is weird. Doc+BG+Macho VT is weird, but there is a bit of logic there.

[toolenduso]

The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.

So you're arguing that we should lynch Robert first because ira/Robert is still possible, if unlikely?

[Jaack]

The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.

So you're arguing that we should lynch Robert first because ira/Robert is still possible, if unlikely?

That's part of it. It's also better in the event they are all town, as macho townie is by far the weakest of the three roles. It doesn't matter all that much since in that event scum probably nks the two surviving claimants on successive nights, but I guess there is a small chance that having an outed doc/bg could be useful while an outed macho townie has no chance of being beneficial.

[Jaack]

Like if I were to put totally made up odds on it

64% - Robert and HA are scum, Ira is town
30% - All Town
5% - Robert and ira scum, HA town
1% - Something stupid

[Dunnstral]

I mean you can bring up scenarios and percentages all day long, realistically I don't think Robert is mafia so I'm not thinking this is a good vote

[toolenduso]

I mean you can bring up scenarios and percentages all day long, realistically I don't think Robert is mafia so I'm not thinking this is a good vote

Sorry if you've already addressed this, but I looked back at your posts and didn't see anything -- what do you make of the fact that Robert said he had never heard of the macho modifier, then later said he was a macho townie?

@Jaack: Idk...I mean, I get what you're saying. I think we disagree about the likelihood of a Robert/ira scum team. But I'm also a little afraid that if we don't lynch HA now, he gets off the hook.

[Jaack]

@Jaack: Idk...I mean, I get what you're saying. I think we disagree about the likelihood of a Robert/ira scum team. But I'm also a little afraid that if we don't lynch HA now, he gets off the hook.

I don't think there's much of a chance of that happening.

Robert is the right vote. He's probably scum, and if he is town, his role is less than useless. We can lynch HA D2.

[Dunnstral]

I mean you can bring up scenarios and percentages all day long, realistically I don't think Robert is mafia so I'm not thinking this is a good vote

Sorry if you've already addressed this, but I looked back at your posts and didn't see anything -- what do you make of the fact that Robert said he had never heard of the macho modifier, then later said he was a macho townie?

@Jaack: Idk...I mean, I get what you're saying. I think we disagree about the likelihood of a Robert/ira scum team. But I'm also a little afraid that if we don't lynch HA now, he gets off the hook.

Honestly I've never heard of any of those modifiers myself but it looked like he had a valid explanation? Nobody called him out on it

In my opinion, h_a is the most likely to be scum individually, and that's who I want to get. I Believe both robert and ira are town


Worst case scenario is that all 3 are town and we lynch both robert and h_a; I don't believe lynching robert is a good choice because I believe he'll flip town which will tell us nothing

I'm tempted to vote h_a and put them to L-1 but I'm worried that if all 3 are town we end up tunneling a lynch day 2 and get 2 town lynches

[Dunnstral]

Jaack why do you think Robert is probably scum?

[Zachstralkita]

To be honest I don't vibe with Robert being scum either.

[Jaack]

Why Robert is scum:

1. His claim does not add up, particularly if one of HA or ira is scum. Macho VT is a role that just doesn't exist, particularly if the only protective role is a bg, which is perfectly balanced.

2. His claim was done idiotically.
He soft claims something that could explain both HA and ira being town in 563.
He then says that he is a 'week townie' (583) but describes the macho modifier. The weak modifier is literally nonsensical without a night action (if you're weak, you die if you target scum).
Jake and I tell him he is not referring to the correct role (584 and 586)
Robert claims to have never heard of macho in 587 while reaffirming he is weak.
In 596 he says his pm says he is weak.
Then in 604 he claims his role pm says macho, after four people (jake, bins, tool, and myself) tell him that what he's claiming makes no sense.

[Tyler the Creator]

i voted rob primarily because he question dodged me when i asked him about why he thought weak meant macho

and 626 hit my gut really hard in ways i'd struggle to articulate

i'd still support an ha lynch

[Zachstralkita]

Robert had no real scum motivation to do what he did initially imo

[Zulfy]

"Porque sufriiiiiiiir el dolor
Porque lloraaaaaar en silencio"

[Zulfy]

"Las consequencias de entregar el corazon--"

*hic*

"--A alguien que no te amaaaa"

[Zulfy]

No lo duden
Una lengua venenosa es mas mortal que un cuchillo

Votecount 1.14

heuristically_alone (L-2)

: Keyser, Floof, toolenduso, iraonavp, JFSF

iraonavp

: bins

Robert2424

: Jaack, Tyler

Zachstralkita

:xyzzy, heuristically

Not voting

:Robert2424, Zachstralkita, Dunnstral

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-05-06 16:00:00)

Note: No change from Votecount 1.13