Open 631 - Diffusion of Power (Over)

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VOTE: Pistachi0n

Definitely scum.

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You're all scum.

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So shotty, is pistachi0n your scumbuddy?

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Let's be clear that that's still scummy as fuck.

I think sarcasm is much more of a personality tell than a scum tell. ou are making up scum tells now.

Where are you going with this?

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Nope. Jumping on wagons is awesome. Townread on snarky.

Are you really trying to deflect that hard?
I think you and snark are scum buddies.

unvote

vote lowell

Um,

VOTE: shotty

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Nope. Jumping on wagons is awesome. Townread on snarky.

Are you really trying to deflect that hard?
I think you and snark are scum buddies.

unvote

vote lowell

Um,

VOTE: shotty

Opportune much?

Oh the irony.

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Just to clarify I am not voting on Shotty because of him being sarcastic.

I voted on him because of his earlier read on KTS. He called KTS out for making up scum reads. At the time I assumed this was Shotty calling KTS scum, so I didn't understand why he didn't follow up on it, which was why I asked him where he was going with this. Unfortunately his response didn't really answer my question. But if Shotty did not think it was a scum tell, I am really curious as to why he would bring it up.

At the moment I am inclined to believe he did not in fact think it was a scum tell seeing as he is now voting with KTS (both are voting on Lowell). If that's the case I find it pretty questionable, as it seems to me like he was trying to discredit KTS' vote. It is also a possibility he was waiting for someone else to pick up on it or just trying to keep his options open in case a train should start on KTS. Overall it seemed like he was waiting for a train to join instead of trying to start one himself. In either case I have a hard time seeing this coming from a town PoV.

It is possible I am reading too much into his post, but when he voted on Lowell it just made sense for this to be a scum play. (as in waiting for a train to present itself, not pushing a train himself even though he called someone out, who he is now voting with).

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Also Rhaegar are you townreading Shotty?

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That's very interesting. Keeping your options open, huh?

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Um, you're pretty aggressive this game KTS.

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In case it isn't obvious, I'm 99% sure there is at least one mafia between Shotty and Rhaegar.

Rhaeger's entrance is very questionable. Hard defending Shotty (calling out everyone voting on him etc), yet not willing to commit to a town read. Sounds to me like he is keeping his options opens.
He also admits that Shotty is playing scummy but claims that he always does that, yet he still questions everyone voting on him for not considering that - but how do you even know? What if people do believe this is scum Shotty? (I have never played with him before by the way).

Your 'defense' of him is really weird based on what you've said. Could be a play for town credit in case Shotty should get lynched and flips town. (very quick to call people out for voting on him as well.)

So anyway I'm going to sleep now.

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The problem I have with Rhaegar is that he is basing his reads around Shotty being town, as he is suspicious of the people voting on him, yet he claims he isn't town reading him.

I don't really care about self-meta. I am not voting on Shotty because of his behavior.

What bothers me is that Rhaeger's reads are based around Shotty being town (suspicious of the people voting on him, calling them opportunistic etc.)
This would make sense if he was town reading Shotty, but he claims he is not.

Oh and can we stop with the "he always plays like this" excuse? Because it is irrelevant. If he always plays like this no matter what his alignment is I don't think you can blame people for applying pressure.

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Eh on my phone, realised I pretty much said the same thing twice, sorry.

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Boys and girls, this here quote is an example of setting up lynches. It's a common scum tactit in which someone attempts to justify two back-to-back lynches and get away with the first mislynch. And yes, I used the word mislynch, does that mean I think/know shotty is town? Of course not, talking theory right here.

I honestly don't think this makes much sense. How am I setting up anything? This wouldn't even work as it would be a terrible play.
And to be fair I don't even see how I am trying to set up anything. I find both of you suspicious and I believe there is at least one scum between the two of you.

@Duppin: Why do you believe that one of me or Shotty must be scum? Why isn't it possible for us to both be town? How is that scenario unrealistic in your mind?

It is obviously possible both of you are town, I'm not sure why you think that scenario is "unrealistic" in your mind. That's a pretty weird question by the way.
I however do not believe both of you are town. I do believe there is at least one scum between the two of you and it is even possible you are scumbuddies. (which would align with you attempting to keep your options open with a null read on him). Obviously I could be wrong but at the moment this is the way I want to go.

I have never played with Shotty because so I can't comment on his meta but I really don't think it matters as much (so much self-meta in this game by the way) as some of you seem to believe. Not only is it easy to play around but in this particular instance I truly do not understand your defense of him. I think mentioning him often being an easy mislynch is very important and several players has mentioned this including you.
The thing is that doesn't really mean anything at all. You also claim he always plays like this so that makes it a null tell, which means it doesn't matter either. So I am basing my read on what I've seen from him and if I think that's suspicious I will obviously vote for him. If you find him difficult to read (which you are implying you do) I honestly find your defense of him very weird, as voting on him for pressure could help get a better read on him.

Overall I think my issue with your play is that I don't think your defense of him lines up with your read on him. Most of your posts have been pretty good, but I find the defense really suspicious. Please note that what really bothers me is that you're calling out the people who voted on him, which pretty much only makes sense if Shotty is town - but you claim you have a null read on him.
I know you replied to my previous post claiming that his teammates would bus him early if he was scum, which is definitely a valid point, but I think it is ridiculous to pursue this when we do not know the alignment of Shotty and to be fair in that scenario Shotty would be scum anyway.
I can maybe understand if you think your way is safer (you believe there would be scum on his train no matter what Shotty's alignment is), which might be true. I'm not entirely sure I believe it is the correct play, but I think I'll take a look at the train.

I am not seeing where shotty considered KTS scum ? Please help me out if I am mistaken.

I assumed you know the answer to this question now (I believe you were catching up and have read all of my posts now).
In case you haven't, this was the post:

Let's be clear that that's still scummy as fuck.

I think sarcasm is much more of a personality tell than a scum tell. ou are making up scum tells now.

Shotty claims that KTS is making up scum tells. If you read my posts you all notice that I claimed that I am inclined to believe that Shotty did

not

scum read KTS (seeing as he never followed up on it and voted with him), which makes his post more suspicious to me as I don't understand why he'd bring it up then. The only possible explanations I could give of it were anti-town (discredit, waiting for someone else to pick up on it and not wanting to push himself. When he later decided to join the Lowell train I started to believe in this world, as it implied that he did indeed not want to push a train himself).
I did however also claim that it was possible that I was reading too much into his post. (could be a frustrated townie reacting to what he thinks is a silly push).

Okay what.

Hmm, I didn't get that vibes at all. It actually looked like rhaegar doesn't like shotty very much but had some experience with him. Three people literally confirm this - KTS, rhaegar and shotty himself, that shotty gets easily mislynched. Why the specific focus on rhaegar?

Um, what? Irrelevant.

The difference between KTS, Rhaegar and Shotty (why would you even mention him) is obvious. Rhaegar is not town reading Shotty yet he is basing his reads around a town flip - he has now claimed he think his teammates would be bussing, but I think that's silly to pursue day 1 - but overall his play might be safer which I stated in my reply to him as well. I'm not calling Rhaegar out for mentioning that Shotty gets easily mislynched and I have no idea why you believe that is the reason.

I think duppin is scum. His posts regarding rheagar seemed fake and forced.

That's a pretty vague and weak read. What exactly feels fake and forced?

Anyway in any case, I'm going to take a look at Shotty's train. While I still find Shotty suspicious, I think it's worth considering Rhaegar's play (unless I misunderstood what he is trying to do obviously).

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Chilledtea can you please read my posts?

Rhaegar is defending Shotty by pushing scum on the people voting on him. That is also how he is defending him.

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And I don't see how that feels "fake and forced" by the way.

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Oh and I clearly stated him mentioning that Shotty gets easily mislynched was a good thing (which you just happened to state again).

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I always have difficulty understanding the "one of these two must be scum!" like why? It never makes any sense unless you have some very specific information (for eg LYLO).

I already explained why. I think Shotty is scum, but if he is town I think that makes Rhaegar's play very scummy.

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Chilledtea can you please read my posts?

Rhaegar is defending Shotty by pushing scum on the people voting on him. That is also how he is defending him.

I didn't get that impression. I was on the train too btw, but didn't get that impression at all. It felt more like he was trying to explain the meta and wanted to be careful regarding shotty.

Read his posts again. It's obvious at this point that you aren't paying that much attention to the game. That's not necessarily a scumtell but it can be a bit frustrating.

There is NO doubt that Rhaegar was defending Shotty. He even said so himself.

I'm defending shotty because I've played with him at least 5-6 times before, if not more. I've seen him lynched day 1 as town too many damn times to fall for that. And in all fairness, I've been guilty of getting him lynched day 1 a couple of those times. It's a lesson I've learned, and I have no interest in making the same mistake again. It's an easy wagon for scum to push, which is why I think there is scum on it.

Because of his playstyle he is a hard player to accurately read, which is why I reserve the right to do that at a later point. I concede that he could be scum, but I contend that his general behavior and attitude so far fits with both his town and scum play and therefor isn't useful in getting a read on him.

I'll be back later and give my opinion on the people on Shotty's train.

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Chilledtea can you please read my posts?

Rhaegar is defending Shotty by pushing scum on the people voting on him. That is also how he is defending him.

Are you saying that acting opportunistic isn't a scum tell?

You mean like your vote on Lowell?

But yes, I'd say it is usually a scum tell.

So in conclusion, stop trying to say I am reading Shotty as town, or that a town read is what is predicating my actions regarding the players voting him. That is not true, and I think I've explained that fairly explicitly now.

I never said that you were town reading Shotty. In fact I keep questioning you for not townreading him. Your explanation didn't really change anything (but thank you for doing it anyway), I still think your actions were weird.

In case it isn't obvious, I'm 99% sure there is at least one mafia between Shotty and Rhaegar.

@Duppin: Why do you believe that one of me or Shotty must be scum? Why isn't it possible for us to both be town? How is that scenario unrealistic in your mind?

It is obviously possible both of you are town, I'm not sure why you think that scenario is "unrealistic" in your mind.

Care to explain the discrepancy here?

What kind of question is this? This is mafia, obviously it is possible both of you are town but at the moment I do not believe that to be the case.

It's an easy setup. You simply get one of the pair lynched and "whoops, they flipped town, that means the other guy must be scum instead, my bad." I've seen that play too many times not to call it out. It's an odd form of guilt by association, and it is poor scum hunting in my mind. I don't mind looking at associations after the fact, that is essential, but creating them beforehand like this is something I've seen scum do a lot. Yes, town does it as well, but It doesn't usually end well.

Sorry but this makes absolutely no sense to me and I fail to see how this would be a scum play - or well it would be a really bad one.
I think it's a fairly normal play and not alignment indicative. Not to bring up self meta but I do it all the time. And by all the time I mean every single game multiple times. I obviously don't mean that I go like "oh shame, he wasn't scum now let's lynch player B!1", because it all depends on how the game is progressing. I revaluate very often.
I do however always limit my lynch pool and look at associations. I try to look at the game and consider different worlds and then pursue the one that makes the most sense to me.
This can all change with a single flip from a night kill or perhaps a post.

What you're saying is that I am trying to set up a play where we first lynch player A day 1 and then I'm hoping for people to sheep my vote tomorrow when I try to lynch player B. I think that's a really bad play for scum and this would only work if town were terrible. I don't think it makes much sense for scum to limit themselves to one single lynching target day 2 and just hope for everyone else to sheep his vote. Sure it's WIFOM but I think it would be dumb. You could argue that it gives you a 'solid' reason for voting on someone day 2, but when you just park your vote doing nothing just saying "well told you there was a scum between the two of them so it's obviously this guy now, k thx" you are probably going to get lynched yourself.

No, I'm defending him by pointing out his meta so that people can do a better job of scumhunting.

I've only called out one of the people who voted shotty as scum.

Meh, that's not entirely true. Sure you've only voted on SnarkySnowman so far for voting on Shotty, but you've called out everyone else although it hasn't been as direct.
In #116 you called pretty much every single vote on him bad. You also later implied there were opportunistic votes on his train. In general your overall attitude has been that scum would vote for him because he is an easy mislynch.

This is also what I have been pointing out the whole time. My point was that I thought it was fairly suspicious that you chose to call out pretty much everyone indirectly for voting on Shotty and implied it was a scum train even though you weren't actually townreading Shotty yourself.

Yes you've explained why you did what you did and I do understand what you're saying but it doesn't change my opinion. I still think you went way too hard in your defense of him only later to kind of backtrack claiming he was a null read and you'd be okay with lynching him later (don't get me wrong, I know that'd obviously depend on how the game goes).

I'd also like you to consider that based on what you're saying this is the first game where you have defended him and don't want to see him getting 'mislynched' (if he is town) early because you feel bad for doing it to him before. Obviously I can't help but question this sudden change of heart (at least that is how it sounds like to me). It is definitely possible you are telling the truth but I hope you understand why it can seem a bit strange.

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Anyway about the Shotty train, this was how it formed:

#12: SnarkySnowman - Seems like a normal RVS vote. Mentioned that shotty has a meta of getting instalynched. Seems like a silly thing to bring up if he was trying to push this wagon somewhere. Changed his vote in #21, so most likely just a RVS vote.
#24: Shotty's first response. Reaction to SnarkySnowmans RVS vote (Snarky had changed his vote at this point). I'm not sure if he was asking about the vote on him or pisskop. Pretty weird reaction though.
#30: chilledtea - Voted on Shotty because of his reaction in #24 putting him at 1 vote.
#36: Snarky - Voted on Shotty because "Shotty did just kinda claim scum". (prob referring to #33). Shotty at 2 votes.
#40: Killthestory - Voted on Shotty, no reason given. Shotty now at 3 votes.
#52: KainTepes - Voted on Shotty, a sheep vote I think. (this made me ISO him and well.. just realised how useless he is). Shotty at 4 votes.
#61: Lowell - Voted on shotty. Shotty now at 5 votes.
#67: KainTepes - Changed his vote to KillTheStory, seems like a joke vote. Shotty at 4 votes.
#71: Kop - Voted on Snarky for "jumping onto a wagon that was quickly gaining momentum". I thought this was a bit weird seeing as Snarky was second on the train.
#76: Killthestory - Changed his vote to Lowell. Shotty now at 3 votes.
#77: duppin - Voted on Shotty putting him at 4 votes.
#97: Snarky - Changed his vote to Almost putting Shotty at 3 votes. The train pretty much died here.

So,

SnarkySnowman

: Nothing suspicious about the RVS vote. Some people are bothered with the second vote. I can understand why it seems a bit strange (Shotty's first response was in #24, Snarky responded to it in #25 yet didn't vote on him. Snarky first voted on him in #36, after chilledtea had voted.)
His vote did bother me a little at first but that was because I assumed he voted on Shotty because of his post #24 (in that case it is indeed very suspicious he didn't vote until someone else).
It does however seem like he did not vote for him because of that but because of Shotty's response to chilledtea's vote. (In #24 Shotty asked Snarky to explain his vote and in #25 asked which vote he was talking about. Overall I get the impresison that Snarky didn't really care that much about Shotty first post. When Snarky voted on Shotty in #36 he was also (at least that is what it seems like) referring to Shotty's posts to chilledtea. His vote doesn't seem suspicious to me).

Unfortunately Snarky hasn't really posted that much content yet, so I would like to hear more from him. I can honestly understand why some people would want to pressure him but I really do not think there is anything suspicious about his votes. In fact his lack of response to the initial votes on him bothers me a little more but oh well.

chilledtea:

Nothing wrong with his first vote, I personally didn't like Shotty's reaction either.
I've already talked a bit about chilledtea (since he pushed on me). I get the impression he isn't that focused on the game as I felt like he kept missing stuff. As I said back then that is not necessarily a scumtell. I've liked most of his posts today though.

KainTepes:

Honestly this guy is useless. Someone else referred to him as the VI and that might be true. I'd like to see him do something more but I doubt he is going to. If he isn't going to up his game a little I see no reason to keep him around. He is either scum or a just a trolling townie, none of which are helpful for town.

Lowell:

I have him as leaning town. I liked his response to the pressure on him and I like his stance. His vote was a bit meh but overall I have no interest in voting on him at all. I would like to see a hear a bit more from him though.

Killthestory:

I think he is town. His initial vote seemed like it was mainly for pressure. Has changed his reads on several players and is at least attempting to scumhunt.

So looking at the votes I can understand why some people are voting on Snarky - I'm still not getting scumvibes from him though. Would like to hear something more from him.
chilledtea is just a null read, still not entirely sure what to make of him.
KainTepes is useless. If he isn't going to play I'd honestly be okay with lynching him. The only problem with this is that it won't give us a lot of information.
I have no interest in voting on Lowell or KTS.

@Kop, why did you find Snarky's vote on Shotty more suspicious than let's say Lowell?

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I really fail to see where I backtracked on this point.

You backtracked in the sense that the way you opened you kind of implied that you were townreading Shotty (at least that was the impression I got, if someone did not get that from your first couple of posts I'd be fairly surprised but maybe it's just me), only later to imply that you'd be okay with a vote on Shotty (I hope you can see why you seem a bit hypocritical with your defense of him).

I'll be going to sleep now though, but before that I'll do this:

UNVOTE: shotty
VOTE: Almost50

I honestly forgot you were in the game. Not because you haven't posted but I haven't really noticed anything you've said. plx gib me something

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Hey guys, sorry for the lack of posts yesterday. Just wanted to tell you that this is going to be a very busy weekend for me and I can't promise much activity. I might have some time tomorrow though so I'll answer your question then Rhaegar.

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What are your thoughts on this post in particular. It's the main reason I am voting snowman right now.

I think I smell an Almost / Shotty team.

VOTE: Almost

The issue I have is he abandoned a viable (at the time) Shotty wagon for a nonexistent one, while still calling Shotty scum. The whole sequence there is really off and in my mind doens't show a town mindset.

What do you think?

It's a fairly weird vote yes, but I don't find it particular scummy. Why would he as scum abandond (to quote you) a viable wagon for a nonexistent one? I just think it was a weird play. It is possible that he realised the train was going to die and then chose to put his vote somewhere else but in that case it wouldn't make sense of him to move it to Almost50 seeing as his scumread on him was based on the fact that he thought he and Shotty were aligned. If the shotty train died because people didn't think he was scum it was unlikely they'd move their vote to Almost50 at the time. It's also possible he just moved his vote because he found Almost50 more suspicious.
In any case we don't know exactly why he did it, but I personally do not find it scummy.

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Oh and I actually like my current vote. I feel like Almost50 keeps asking random question without really following up on it. No hard reads from him either. I have no idea where you are in this game. gib some reads plx

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@duppin, I just don't feel snarky's actions show a town mindset

I don't really either. But I don't find his vote scummy either at all. I'm not against people pressuring him since I do not have a strong read on him but I don't agree with the scum reads.

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What the hell guys? Of course we aren't going to do a no lynch. That'd be a waste.

I'm actually revaluating my read on SS after his claim. I have a really hard time believing his claim. I also still think Almost50 is suspicious.

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We are not going to no-lynch.

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To be honest I think that's a silly play pistachi0n.

Anwyay guys, there is absolutely no way we are going to no lynch today. It's a bad play, can we please not discuss this any further. If you don't know why it's a bad play I'd gladly explain, but I'd rather have us focus on who we should lynch.

Does anyone have a votecount?

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@Almost50, in this particular setup? What makes you believe this setup changes anything?

Town should never push for a no lynch day 1. You have to realise that by not lynching anyone day 1 basically means that day 2 is going to turn into day 1 v2 - we will still have very limited information which also means that people are (most likely) going to pursue the exact same targets they did day 1 as it is unlikely anything would've changed their mind - so basically it sets town back one day.
This is not in town's interest. Not lynching does not progress the game.

There is no point in doing anything day 1 if we are just going to go for a no lynch (sure some interactions might come in handy later, but it's still not a good play). The game could just begin during nighttime then, as the only solid information we are going to get anyway is going to come from the NK's and even then it's doubtful we would gain anything from that either as it would be easy for scum to just kill someone who's flip won't have that big of an impact on the game (as in players who haven't really done much day 1).

You also have to realise that lynching is the only way for town to kill scum and that is obviously not possible if we don't lynch, so we're just giving away a free kill to scum. Yes it is possible we lynch town day 1 (in fact that is usually what happens), but that's still better than not lynching at all. We can then look at vote records and interactions and actually base it on something. This is not really possible now (which is also why I disliked Rhaegar's defense earlier, but let's not to there again). We need some flips, simple as that.

As for this specific game I think town are in a bit of a weird situation. Snarky claims he is a N1 cop - I personally don't really buy it, but it is possible.
The question is, what do we do with him? Some have been saying we should let him live, and while I'm tempted to agree people have to realise this is very risky.

This is going to be one big WIFOM fest and I'm not sure this is good for town. If Snarky is still alive tomorrow people have already hinted they would doubt his claim then, but that's so easy for scum to play around. Let's look at the possible scenarios.

A) He survives and has a guilty check: There is a guaranteed scum between him and his target. If he is scum it means we are (most likely) going to mislynch a town day 2 and it also means that day 2 is going to be pretty useless as a guilty check means vote records are useless - If Snowman is indeed the cop he should definitely not reveal that he has a guilty check rightaway, but again this would be fairly for him and his teammates to play around if he is scum.

B) He survives and has an innocent check: People are going to doubt him. Did he survive because he was scum, because he was protected or because scum is trying to frame him? It's going to be WIFOM hell. Day phase could prove to be very interesting though.

C) He dies: Actually a decent scenaro. We will then know he was town which makes his wagon a little bit more interesting (and I'd really look into the possible deflection going on then). Unfortunately we won't have his check.
Gaining this information is also possible by lynching him though.

So this is how I see it; if we do not lynch SS he has to either get a guilty check or get NK'ed. Him surviving with an innocent check obviously means whoever he targeted is confirmed town (if SS is a cop), but we won't know that until SS flips.

Normally I'd agree with the people saying we should leave SS alive (I too believe that is the mechanical correct play), but I think his claim is very questionable and I am really not interested in the WIFOM crap that might play out if he survives. I still consider him an option for today.

I'd rather lynch someone else though. Shotty or Almost50. Not interested in KTS. Willing to listen to other trains if someone has a proper case.

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Eh, TL;DR
- We are not going to go for a no lynch.
- Letting Snarky live is the 'correct' play - but might not be the best idea.
- I want to lynch Shotty or Almost50; willing to consider other trains if someone has a strong case.

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To be honest I think that's a silly play pistachi0n.

Why so?

It seems like I missed the context, I apologise. Might not be as silly as I thought.

Except we are likely to have cop investigation results AND a night kill. We can trace back the NK interactions and analyze their reads.

Very poor argument. Town usually has a cop in 99% of the games, that doesn't mean it's wiser to do a no lynch. I've also already explained why the information we would gain from the NK would be very limited (assuming scum aren't new players) if we decided to no lynch, as scum would most likely attempt to kill someone who's flip wouldn't matter much (based on votes and interactions from day 1).

What you say (the no new info) would only be true if the cop(s) got blocked (which is not applicable since we know there's no RB in the setup) AND there's no NK either, in which case; yes we're basically playing D1 v2, but then we also haven't lost anyone at all. I'd repeat the process on D2 if necessary and we would probably end up with 3-4 confirmed town players

It honestly feels a bit like you missed the point. I clearly stated that the only information we would get would be from the NK flip and even that would be very limited as scum would decide who to kill - not sure why you keep talking about the NK when I've already covered that. There is also a big difference between the information from a NK and a lynch. Town decides who to lynch and scum decides who to kill, in no possible way is it better to leave it up to scum to give us information.

About the cop, that's still not a very good point. Cop(s) (assuming we have one (or more) night 1 cops, which we don't even know) would still get a check in even if lynched someone (unless we obviously lynched them).

You see, in chess -say- there are pawns and there are powerful pieces. VTs are the pawns in this game. The situation now is like we have run out of pawns already, and all remaining pieces are rocks or bishops. Rather than losing either for no reason I would rather hold on to my pieces until they've done something that will help tighten the board and choke the opponent's remaining pieces.

No, no and no this is definitely not a good idea. We have X-night cops, which means they only get in one check. You can not expect everyone (actually I'd expect very few) to get in their actions. By wanting to give them a "chance" to do something you're basically giving scum a freepass as they could just claim they have a night 8 action. I think you're very wrong.
This is not a game of bishops or whatever. Everyone is pretty much a VT until they get their action in and after that they're a VT once again, therefore the game should be played like that. Obviously we should try to avoid killing people who has a night action the very next night, but that is also most likely what scum are going to claim. It is very important we do not turn this into a tpr show where we want to test out every single claim, because that is not how we're going to win this. This should be played like a normal game with the occasional cop check (and doc protect).

We will need to think why the mafia picked this target over any other.

We really don't. I'm not going to talk about the NK target once again, but just know that it's very doubtful we can read into it, especially in this game where everyone is a TPR. Sure we can discuss their choice for a while but we can't use it for anything. Maybe they killed him because they thought he was a threat or maybe they're trying to frame someone - in either case we won't know for certain and people better not base their reads on a NK. I mean sure if they already have a case on someone it might be worth mentioning the NK as well but they should definitely not base their read around it. I'm not sure why you are so interested in all this WIFOM crap.

It IS the town's only was to kill scum. It is also the town's only way to kill a townie. So, to make it completely and utterly true it should be "it's the town's only way to kill". Period.

The town needs to kill SCUM. I fully agree. The town does NOT benefit from killing it's own though, hence I'm calling for an informed lynch rather than one for the sake of lynching.

Very questionable statement.
Town loses every day they do not lynch. Sure it often happens we end up lynching a townie, but that's part of the game and it will give us information. A lynch is the conclusion of the day, if we decide not to lynch the day has basically been useless. In general town should never no lynch, although there are a couple of situations where it makes sense to do it. Not on day 1 though.
You're calling for an informed lynch, but don't realise that to get an "informed" lynch we need information - which is why we need a day 1 lynch because otherwise we might end up with another day 1 tomorrow. Wanting to keep people alive because they may get a guilty check in night X is simply wrong.

I honestly don't see the reason to continue. No offense but I think your arguments are poor but that doesn't necessarily make you scum. I'd say that you are either an inexperienced player or scum.
If that is not the case, I truly do not understand how you can possibly believe that it is better to no-lynch but oh well.

[duppin]

Actually you know what, I'm sorry I shouldn't have responded to that post. We should not discuss whether to no lynch or not anymore. You have your opinion, and while I disagree and think it's fairly questionable there is nothing more to it at the moment. It is obvious at this point that we are going to lynch someone today, so let's focus on that.

Almost50 you are the leading wagon. Who do you want to lynch? Keep in mind no lynch is not an option.

[duppin]

Does anyone have a reason for not posting/hammering?

I do. I will post after some time.

Still waiting for this by the way.

[duppin]

I kinda like chilledtea's reads. Kop hasn't been very active and I wasn't too fond of his earlier vote on Snarky (well his reasoning at least), which was also why I didn't like the Snarky train at the time.
But I honestly don't believe Snarky's claim so not sure what to think of it anymore.

What if we have no N1 cop? What if he is just saying so to attract whatever possible protections on N1?

let me say it one more time: If SS is alive in D2 he will provide an investigation result on someone. A guilty means we lynch the target and see their flip to confirm SS' alignment. A NOT guilty we lynch SS to verify his alignment and either confirm or refuse his investigation result. basically, unless SS hits on scum he is the lynch target of D2 (if he come up with a NOT guilty) or D3 (if he comes up with a guilty on someone who flips town). The only way SS will see D4 is if we lynch scum on D2 based on his investigation/recommendation.

If people seriously believe this, we have to lynch Snarky today, because if Snarky is telling the truth (as in he is a cop) and gets an innocent check, town are going to be in a pretty bad situation.

I can understand the reasoning behind lynching Snarky if he gets an inno check, because if he is town scum are not going to kill him since he is basically just a VT at that point + his target would be confirmed by his flip.
If he is scum he is obviously not going to get NK'ed. Basically he is just going to be a questionmark and an easy mislynch for scum to push seeing as a lot of players don't seem to trust him. Do we really want to let him live? If he gets a guilty check it obviously leaves us in a better position as we will have a confirmed scum between him and his check then, but I'm not sure it's worth the risk.

But I'm probably a bit biased since I don't believe his claim.

[duppin]

I can understand the reasoning behind lynching Snarky if he gets an inno check, because if he is town scum are not going to kill him since he is basically just a VT at that point + his target would be confirmed by his flip.
If he is scum he is obviously not going to get NK'ed. Basically he is just going to be a questionmark and an easy mislynch for scum to push seeing as a lot of players don't seem to trust him. Do we really want to let him live? If he gets a guilty check it obviously leaves us in a better position as we will have a confirmed scum between him and his check then, but I'm not sure it's worth the risk.

Except if we lynch him D2 and he flips town we have a confirmed town result, while if we lynch him today and he flips town we have no confirmation??

Scum would most likely just kill the confirmed town that night. Sure we might have have a N2 doctor or we may not. I have no idea why you're such a big fan of WIFOM but I personally prefer to avoid it as much as possible.

[duppin]

I can understand the reasoning behind lynching Snarky if he gets an inno check, because if he is town scum are not going to kill him since he is basically just a VT at that point + his target would be confirmed by his flip.
If he is scum he is obviously not going to get NK'ed. Basically he is just going to be a questionmark and an easy mislynch for scum to push seeing as a lot of players don't seem to trust him. Do we really want to let him live? If he gets a guilty check it obviously leaves us in a better position as we will have a confirmed scum between him and his check then, but I'm not sure it's worth the risk.

Except if we lynch him D2 and he flips town we have a confirmed town result, while if we lynch him today and he flips town we have no confirmation??

Scum would most likely just kill the confirmed town that night. Sure we might have have a N2 doctor or we may not. I have no idea why you're such a big fan of WIFOM but I personally prefer to avoid it as much as possible.

Yeah, but then they have to choose between the conftown and someone who might have a power in late game.

Who says the conftown doesn't have that?

[duppin]

Wait what, how did this KTS wagon manage to grow all of a sudden? KTS has been posting like this all game long, curious as to why people first find it suspicious now.
I'm personally not interested in the wagon, I don't think he is scum.

I'd rather support the other train.
VOTE: Snarky

I don't really need to explain this seeing as I've already said why it might not be a good idea to let him live. Him showing up now only to put a vote on KTS didn't really help.

[duppin]

^^^ 100% agree with this. I'm not totally sold on KTS scum, but he could be, and it's better than going after a potential PR.

Everyone is a PR.

[duppin]

Oh well, this is disappointing.

[duppin]

ye u could have had a better information lynch like this seeing as VIs wagoning obvtown like me isnt alignment indicative rly

Was this aimed at me? Because I did not vote on you. (I actually defended you).

[duppin]

Snarky, why did you check pisskop?

[duppin]

For what it's worth I don't believe Snarky at all. Would still like to hear him explain his pick, but I doubt he can come up with a valid reason. I think it is a very questionable choice based on day 1.

[duppin]

Really guys?

I obviously made my choice day 1, but what are you doing? "Drawn out bullshit" is exactly what we should've went for today, as we need more opinions from people and we need people to take a stance in the pisskop vs Snarky discussion. Suddenly piling up on one target is such a waste. Don't get me wrong, I do believe Snarky is scum but I'd rather get as much information as possible. It's obvious at this point that Snarky is getting lynched but whatever.

[duppin]

Since you like WIFOM Almost50, what if pisskop is scum and his scumbuddy then clears him tomorrow?

[duppin]

VOTE: Shotty

I can get behind this.

[duppin]

What Rhaegar says is correct.

The only 100% confirmed town right now is Almost50.
It is still possible for pisskop to be scum. If that is the case it means that Kop is his scumbuddy or town (n2 cop). In either scenario Almost50 is confirmed town.
I also have to say that the check on Almost50 was a really good choice as he looked fairly suspicious after Snarky's flip (for pushing no-lynch d1 when Snarky was at L-1)

I personally believe pisskop's claim, which means I also believe Kop.

That leaves Autti, KainTepes, Lowell, Rhaegar and Shotty.

Shotty is most likely scum. I've already explained why I thought he was scum d1, but I don't think Snarky's flip makes him any less suspicious.
If Shotty is indeed scum, it would be pretty weird if Rhaegar was his partner. (due to d1). Basically if that is the case it means that Snarky was bussing Shotty at first, but then Rhaegar bussed Snarky for unvoting Shotty. It would be pretty funny but I think it's unlikely. So if Shotty is scum, I think Rhaegar is most likely town.

I disagree with the people calling Autti suspicious right now. I do not find him scummy. He was also the only other player than me to really push for a Snarky lynch d1 when people were bandwagoning KTS.

If Shotty is scum I think the last scum is either Lowell or KainTepes. I think Lowell looks more towny at the moment.

[duppin]

Oh and if Shotty is town, then I still believe Autti is town as well. In that case I'd expect to find the last two scum in KainTepes, Lowell and Rhaegar. Rhaegar seems more town than the other two at the moment.

Obviously it is still a possibility that pisskop is scum, but that is really not worth pursuing yet.

[duppin]

Autti, share your read on everyone please.

[duppin]

VOTE: Ranger

I'm curious, what was your plan? Your read on me yesterday made absolutely no sense at all, and unless you go all illuminati on me it should be fairly obvious that it is extremely unlikely that I am scum. I can't blame you, you replaced into a bad slot but I thought you misplayed it.

Just to clarify I don't have a guilty check on Ranger, but I'm pretty sure this is a scumplay. I still think it's unlikely that Autti is scum based on his interactions with Snarky during the end of day 1, although it is possible. I'd much rather lynch Ranger today and I do believe the game will end there.

[duppin]

In any case, game should be over.

Town:
Almost50 (confirmed town)
Kop ( confirmed town)
Pisskop (most likely town)

Lean town:
Rhaegar (unlikely to be scum based on day 1)

Null:
Autti (was pushing for a snarky lynch during the end of day 1)

Scum:
Ranger (Was somewhat PoE when KT was in the slot, but Ranger has been straight up scummy. Came up with forced and very weak reads. Is attempting to lead town now even though we're doing perfectly fine, since she pretty much has to I guess).

It's pretty much auto from here, I mean unless Rhaegar or pisskop is scum which I personally don't believe.

We lynch Ranger today, if she flips town we will (most likely) be down to 5 tomorrow.
Then we lynch Autti, if he flips town we will (most likely) be down to 3 the day after. If the game isn't over at that point you are free to lynch me if I am still alive but I guarantee the game will be over by then since I'm 99% sure the last scum is between Ranger and Autti and Ranger looks much worse at the moment.

[duppin]

It's pretty much auto at this point, can we just get on with it?

I personally find Ranger more scummy simply because her reads yesterday made no sense in my opinion. Especially her case on me felt forced and felt like her trying to set something up. Obviously I am going to be a bit more biased, but I truly thought it was a really weak read and had a hard time seeing a town pursuing that at that point.

To me it felt like she was trying to make a case on me based on nothing. My play has been fine, my vote record is excellent, my reads have been great.
Sure you can try to consider a world where I bussed both of my teammates d1. I mean my biggest scumread all game was Shotty, who I tried to push on at the beginning of day 1, then later changed it to Sparky when he claimed and people began voting for KTS for no valid reason, where I tried to convince people vote with me. I also believe I was the first one to claim that I didn't believe Sparky's guilty check on pisskop (other than pisskop of course). Autti had already voted Snarky at this point, which is also one of the things that makes me trust him more than Ranger.
You should definitely consider it a possibility that I did bus them, but it's very unlikely and the way that Ranger tried to justify as this being obvious scum play made no sense at all.

.

[duppin]

Eh, Snarky* not Sparky.

[duppin]

I actually agree with Autti.

Ranger how about you explain exactly why I'm scum.

[duppin]

Oh sorry missed the last part of your post.

[duppin]

In any case Autti is correct, massclaiming at this point isn't bad at all.

I do however not believe people should claim their night (at least not the doctors), because then if we go into night phase the last mafia will have to either go fo the confirmed towns and risk that they might be protected or get rid of the doctor claims.
Both confirmed towns surviving would obviously be preferable.

Massclaiming roles at this point is fine, just don't claim nights. All of us are TPR's, it doesn't matter if mafia knows what exactly role we are as he will most likely have to either kill of the doctors and let the confirmed townies live or the other way around.

I'll start by claiming cop.
Kop is confirmed cop, pisskop claims cop. Lowell was cop.

That's 4 cops.

We have 3 dead doctors.

That means that the last 3 town could be:

a) 3 doctors
2) 2 doctors, 1 cop
3) 1 doctor, 2 cops


Almost50 is confirmed town, he should obviously claim last.

Autti, Ranger and Rhaegar are unknown.

[duppin]

There is no compelling argument for not massclaiming today. Hiding behind the "don't give scum info" speech is hardly valid at this point and massclaiming will only put the last mafia in a bad position, which Autti already explained. (they'll have to fakeclaim and should then at most only be able to get away with one mislynch).

[duppin]

Oh sorry missed the last part of your post.

[duppin]

I'd like to engage you when you have the time by the way.

[duppin]

Sure Ranger, sure.

I can't wait for your case on me.

Well I can do this too. Massclaiming pretty much ends the game today (if not today, then tomorrow). You simply can't deny that. I think you're scum for not wanting to massclaim since you know you're doomed in that scenario. Massclaming is perfectly valid and actually the safest play at this point. The only scenario in which it is not, is if pisskop is mafia but do you believe that to be the case? I don't.

[duppin]

Also the reason I'd like to engage you is because it feels like you're trying to avoid me. You're talking to everyone else about how "scummy" I am without addressing me directly.

[duppin]

If you think Rhaegar has a cop claim on you, he should just claim it.

[duppin]

Also we do Ranger because I know I am not scum and I think you are scummier than Autti.

My issue with your play is that your entrance felt so fake. You weren't asking yourself "who is the scum?" but more so "what if duppin is scum" and then tried to make a case based on that. I felt you were reaching with most of what you said. While I can appreciate players who are willing to consider every single possibility, this entrance was bad and seeing as I'm town hopefully you'll realise that as well. You focused so much on me for no apparent reason and Rhaegar's answer to my last question is kinda similar to what you're doing because if you think I am scum then yes what he said is possible, but how you opened is really not how a town should approach the game. They shouldn't try to focus on one and then just keep throwing reads out until it makes somewhat sense that person is scum. That is why I believe you are scum.

Massclaming is the safest play for all of us. If you are town, then yes sure you know not claiming is safer because you know your role but obviously the rest of us don't.

[duppin]

So I'm looking forward to your case as I'd like to hear it and it will give me a better read on you. Your original points were questionable as best though.

If you even want me to consider the possibility that you are town then perhaps you should work with me instead of this "me and Rhaegar are the best,". If Rhaegar has a cop claim on you he should claim. There's no reason at all not to. There is only one mafia left, there is no info to gain from waiting with a check seeing as there will be no deflection etc.

[duppin]

TL;DR:

Rhaegar if that was you softing an inno check on Ranger, just confirm it already. I considered it a possibility, but saw no reason for you not claim it straightaway as we already knew that it was most likely going to be between me, Ranger and Autti so any of pushing on each other can hardly come as a surprise.

[duppin]

Well since I have time at the moment, I might as well just post.

I think it is very important that Rhaegar confirms if he has an innocent check on Ranger. As it is now he can also later argue that it wasn't in fact a soft claim.
If he claims then Ranger is confirmed town - but Rhaegar isn't. (I personally believe he is town though).

Let's assume that Rhaegar will confirm this later. That leaves us with three confirmed town. (Ranger/Almost50/Kop).

Worst case scenario: Scum is between Rhaegar and pisskop.

This means that we will most likely end up with the last three being Ranger, Rhaegar or pisskop. Ranger would be confirmed town then.

Best case scenario (and most likely I'd say): Scum is between me and Autti.

Fairly simple, we lynch one of us today and the other one tomorrow.

Ranger seems to believe it is between me and Autti, which I also personally believe is the most likely simply because I have townreads on both pisskop and Rhaegar.

[duppin]

But in order for me to pursue the latter, I need Rhaegar to confirm it because I still find Ranger more suspicious. Her entrance didn't feel town to me at all, I'm a bit biased though.

[duppin]

To be fair I think Ranger's point is that it doesn't really matter that much if we mass claim at this point. After doing the math (oh yeah) I'm inclined to agree. It's also fairly obvious what people are at this point I'd say. (or at least what they're going to claim).

[duppin]

I'm sorry Ranger, but why do you think something advanced is going on? It's obvious that Rhaegar quoting your trust post could be a soft claim on you, but he needs to hard claim.

You also have to realise it doesn't confirm him as town, it only confirms you.

[duppin]

I know your reads were evolving, but you pinged me out really early and then you were just set on it.

Please post your case as soon as you have time.

[duppin]

And mass claiming tells me nothing I don't know. It's obvious what you and Almost50 are going to claim and if Rhaegar claims his check then you are confirmed. Rhaegar is obviously going to claim cop. I have no idea what Autti is going to claim.

The reason I wanted the mass claim earlier was because I concluded that Rhaegar wasn't soft claiming, because I saw no reason for him not to hard claim it. There's no reason for the subtle crap at this point. If Rhaegar claims then there's only two possible scenarios, which I've already covered. The most likely in that case is that Autti is the last scum, but from your point of view it would be between me and him and that's fine. I couldn't care less if I get lynched first.

You just have to keep in mind that if Autti is not the scum, you'll end up in the last three with Rhaegar and pisskop so if we lynch me today, you might want to discuss it that possibility tomorrow with the other confirmed town still alive.

[duppin]

I'm sorry Ranger, but why do you think something advanced is going on?

Because something advanced is going on.

Alright, fair enough then.

The thing I have in mind

does

confirm him as town.

Well, define confirmed? Because unless there is a cop check on him he is not confirmed. I mean I don't think I missed someone softing a check on him, but admittedly I wasn't really around for day 3.

I know your reads were evolving, but you pinged me out really early and then you were just set on it.

And? This isn't your first game with me. You know my modus operandi. (But, will do, it'll take a bit to get to it, but it'll happen today.)[/quote]

Valid point, but that is also why I am surprised that you're scumreading me.

[duppin]

Accidently failed the last quote, but well you get it.

[duppin]

You just have to keep in mind that if Autti is not the scum, you'll end up in the last three with Rhaegar and pisskop so if we lynch me today, you might want to discuss it that possibility tomorrow with the other confirmed town still alive.

Bluntly, if both {you, Autti} are town then I deserve to lose.

Forgot to respond to this.

It's not 'your' game to lose. If this ends up being the case, then all of us (town) loses.

Rhaegar is obviously going to claim cop. I

What makes you think that?

Are you saying you don't have an inno check on Ranger?

@Autti's claim, I claim night 5 as well.

[duppin]

Please see my posts from today. (mainly the interactions between me and Ranger).

[duppin]

Normally, sure. Now? Not at all.

If you have an innocent check on Ranger, you should claim it today.

[duppin]

If i were to be a cop with an inno on ranger, i would have waited on that inno. The reason would be that because many people (including the last scum,) had not interacted with him. Claiming an inno right away would deprive the town of uncensored, legitimate reads on him, you interfering with that supposed process is incredibly anti-town.

I already explained why I disagree with this, because our lynch pool as already limited to me, Ranger and Autti. It was obvious that we were going to bump heads. One of us pushing on the other doesn't make us more or less suspicious. There is only one scum left. If for some reason you believe that the scum would be more likely to push on Ranger (your confirmed town in this scenario), then yes sure you'd have a case but I sincerely do not agree with that. I think it would be much wiser to just confirm the town and then reduce the lynch pool and take it from there.

But well no reason to discuss this any further, I've already explained earlier on why I do not believe that would be the correct play and if you disagree that's fine.


As for the mass claiming, it's not anti town at this point either.

The confirmed town do not need to claim (at the moment Almost50 is the only confirmed town we do not know the role of, which is fine.)
Since you claim you do not have an innocent check on Ranger that means she is not confirmed. (Unless you just don't want to commit to it yet).

Getting the players who aren't confirmed to claim however is perfectly valid and the reason for that is simply because if the scenario that most people seem to be pursuing at the moment (scum between me and Autti) is false, then it would be better to have the unconfirmed people to commit to a role now than do it in the last of three.
If the scum hasn't claimed, it is much easier for him to come up with something then as he can look at the setup at that point.
If he has to claim now, he has to be more careful about the NK's as he will have to get rid of the confirmed towns + make sure he doesn't kill off the roles who would ruin his claim (as in the setup then wouldn't make any sense).

Giving this information to the last mafia is irrelevant at this point. I was personally not a big fan of claiming nights, but Almost50 asked for it so I chose to do it anyway.

[duppin]

Ranger softd doc and implied you are a doctor Rheagar. I guess he found a crumb somewhere?

Why the fuck are we prematurely trying to guess roles?

You and duppin...

I wasn't until Ranger implied you were both confirmed towns which seemed to imply she thought your post (quoting the trust part from her post) was you claiming you had an innocent check on her. That was pretty much the only way she could be confirmed (it sounds like she defines confirmed differently now though).

I thought that post was a bit interesting at first but ultimately decided it wasn't a soft claim until Ranger began engaging me which made me try to consider a world where she was confirmed town.

[duppin]

But now however it sounds like I misunderstood Ranger's post (as in her definition of confirmed).

[duppin]

conversly if ranger and almost claim doc, then we KNOW for a fact that the scum is a doctor claimer, and all cops are confirmed town, as we would have 6 docs and 5 cops (impossible).

thus regardless of our actions, it confirms both duppin and myself to be town, without a doubt.

Actually this is not true.

In a 6-5 the last scum could very well be one of the cop claims.

[duppin]

We already have 5 cop claims though.

[duppin]

You think he knows the exact setup?

[duppin]

I assume that is what you were referring to at least.

[duppin]

I have to be completely honest, I've now looked over day 1 again and I still think Autti looks way more towny than Ranger (well to be fair, it was KainTepes).

Almost50, I'm also curious as to why you never followed up on this: 370 since Snarky ended up flipping scum. Did you change your read on KainTepes? In that case, mind telling me what?

[duppin]

Eh mind telling me why*.

[duppin]

That's actually a really good catch and the logic is good. The scumread on me however is still bad.

It's also still a possibility this is a 5-5 setup, but I definitely agree that it seems veeery unlikely we have 6 cops.

[duppin]

That doesn't really make any sense though. It's not like he is questioning my claim either. There is just no point to it right now. I've already explained my stance to everything, whether I believe his claim or not (and he mine) is irrelevant.

[duppin]

It's more so that I think your play has been more scummy than his. Your point about them claiming cops is very interesting though and a good catch.

[duppin]

I do however not necessarily agree with the 6 doctors, although it is possible. When shotty claimed we had 3 dead doctors and one confirmed cop. If this is 5-5 I don't think him claiming cop is that surprising.

[duppin]

Oh god.

Well it isn't. I am town and not sure why you'd hammer before Ranger gave her case on me, because truth to be told I'm pretty sure she doesn't have a solid case on me - that doesn't mean she is scum though, it just seems she is pursuing the world in where the cop claims are scum and her logic is fairly good. I'm honestly a bit disappointed I was lynched because my ISO is great and it should've been fairly obvious that I was most likely town. I'm also curious as to why people just sheep the unconfirmed town (Ranger) instead of voting with confirmed (Almost). You could argue it doesn't really matter at this point though.

In any case Ranger, as I've already pointed out a 5-5 setup is just as likely as a 6-4 because 3 docs were dead when Shotty claimed. Autti is most likely the last scum though.

rip me

[duppin]

Well played Ranger. Still don't understand how I got lynched though.

[duppin]

The claim didn't really have anything to do with me getting lynched though.