Micro 597: TTH's Normal Micro (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Hello, hello! Normally, I would be asking you who I should be sheeping, but I've actually read part of this game, namely the end of Day 3 and all of Day 4. The number of claims on the table is ridiculous, so let's start there.

I am legitimately a town neighbor. That means one of you lovely folks is a filthy liar. Based on TheDominator37's and RadiantCowbells's behaviors, I'm inclined to think that both RadiantCowbells and Titus are what they say they are, leaving Fire Assassin. I'm not sure why Fire Assassin would claim 1-shot bulletproof as scum, but then again (1) there's no reason for a mafia 1-shot bulletproof and (2) there's all the reason in the world for a mafia neighbor.

I was going to go "I'd like to read the rest of this game before kaboom," but now that I've written all that, I think I'm going to go big (or go home). Bombs away!

Vote: Fire Assassin

Fire Assassin hates setup speculation, so let's make the fate of this game rest solely upon the shoulders of setup speculation. That'll be fun.

[Equinox]

Wait, FA was in the neighbourhood as well?

No. It was only me and jmo16mla.

[Equinox]

Any explanation why Jmo was NKed if you're town?

Not a clue. I haven't read Day 1. Either jmo16mla found all the scum and I should be listening to him, or the rest of you sucked!

[Equinox]

Can you catch up and engage in macho repartee with FA to help me solve this?

Well, sure, if you think us screaming at each other with accompanying looks of mild contempt will accomplish something. I should probably warn you that I'm a slow reader, and the only reason I'd even read 46 pages at this point would be to make sure neither you nor Titus are taking me for a ride. Or, well, TheDominator37, who I will be sure to blame for this loss if it turns out either of you are scum.

[Equinox]

Equinox, there's cases for the both of you open here. I think the best approach is to just present your cases and RC and I will discuss them. :nod:

My case on Fire Assassin is literally "I am not scum and probably neither are you nor RadiantCowbells; therefore, Fire Assassin is scum." I could make up stuff for a fatter case, but that's being dishonest!

Think about it, though:

1 mafia ???
1 mafia goon

1 town doctor
1 town neighbor
1 town nurse
1 town role cop
2 town vanillas

1 mafia neighbor
1 mafia goon

1 town 1-shot bulletproof
1 town doctor
1 town neighbor
1 town nurse
1 town role cop
2 town vanillas

Which one makes more sense? The one on the right seems damned overpowered for town. From your point-of-view, it's

possible

that the neighbor has an additional role, but that's not exactly common.

[Equinox]

I forgot that float tags do that. Pretend that didn't happen.

[Equinox]

Let me ask you something: Does a "mafia neighbor and 1-shot strongman" in this setup make sense to you? It doesn't make sense with a mafia goon. Bundling those two powers on one player makes this hypothetical setup ridiculously swingy and arguably more town-favored than it should be because of all the protective power.

Neighbors are ridiculously underpowered. The NRG made me upgrade from neighbors to masons when I tried to run a 13-player Normal with all goons (original setup was two neighbors + one roleblocker versus three goons). It makes much more sense to make up for a potentially negative utility with a protective plus backup, in addition to the pseudo-investigative who can really only confirm the doctor and nurse if the stars align.

Also, I admit to being colored by bias here, but look at what Fire Assassin has done since I came in. He saw I was paranoid about RadiantCowbells, so he tried mildly (or jokingly?) suggesting that we might lose to RadiantCowbells -- despite TheDominator37 all-but-guaranteeing RadiantCowbells's innocence -- and, when Radiant Cowbells complained that Fire Assassin's antics didn't seem town, Fire Assassin announced that he would cease posting until lynch.

Compare all of that to me, golden townie extraordinaire!

[Equinox]

I've rewound to the start of Day 2, and this is what I see:

(1) Fire Assassin calling jmo16mla's death an "odd kill." Totes obv scum.
(2) Fire Assassin immediately objecting to RadiantCowbells seeking out jmo16mla's neighbor(s). Totes obv scum.
(3) ZZZX claiming immediately despite how it looks. Totes obv town.

RadiantCowbells, are you

sure

my reading this thread from the beginning to the end is going to help you? It's obvious to me that the only thing I'm going to read in it is Fire Assassin is scum, you and Titus are town, and there is an outside world to explore. I might do it anyway for the heck of it, but I doubt it's going to be as productive as you think it would be.

Not to mention I tried reading Day 1 and wanted to gouge my eyes out.

[Equinox]

I'll be honest here.

I'm playing to win, but I won't be particularly torn up if this is lost. Given that all three of you were ready to lynch LynchMeSideways at the time I joined, the status quo of the game was "town loss," so it's not like anything changed. I am, however, going to be quite annoyed if I read all 48 pages and

still

lose. While I understand that you two are hesitant and don't want to throw the game when there's that part of you that suspects that I'm town and right about this game, I'm weighing the cost and benefit here of doing what you're asking me to do, and your posts right now are squarely pointing to "not worth the effort."

While everyone is here, I'm going to go find what Titus is asking me to find. If I don't find it -- or do -- I'm going to let the cards fall where they may. Just end it sooner rather than later.

[Equinox]

Meh setup spec FA is guilty

Play wise maybe ZZZX thing but I've mled him before

Gleefully pointing this out for later.

[Equinox]

I don't see any need to hide this anymore, so I am claiming BP.

Either I'm super blind or Fire Assassin didn't react to this or to Creature's second attempt at claiming bulletproof.

Not to mention that Fire Assassin, to "wake up the game," started a wagon on Titus when Creature's wagon was two votes from lynch three days from deadline.

Wish I had some alcohol.

[Equinox]

You are saying I should have assumed there wasn't a second BP and immediately pushed Creature for it?

I would have. "There must be a second X" isn't the usual reaction that a town power role gets when someone claims their role, especially in a Normal.

[Equinox]

Mod: Would you notify a hypothetical 1-shot bulletproof that their shot has been used?

I'm squinting. Quite hard, unfortunately.

[Equinox]

Mod: Would you notify a hypothetical 1-shot bulletproof that their shot has been used?

I'm squinting. Quite hard, unfortunately.

Posting this so TellTaleHeart sees it in case she missed it.

I don't know how closely she has been following this game, but she was posting last night after I posted this question and has been posting this morning. If she has seen it and is not responding, it'd be safe to say that the bulletproof here is purely hypothetical and doesn't exist or else she would've had an answer already.

[Equinox]

I don't understand why Equinox would ask that question as town, I really don't.

It has to do with Titus suspecting that Fire Assassin pre-empted TheDominator37's soft claim, hence my comment that I was "squinting." I'll explain when I get to a proper keyboard this evening, but I had a very specific reason for that question.

[Equinox]

Good game, all. Thanks for hosting, TellTaleHeart, and I'm sorry for having put you in that position.

[Equinox]

Sorry, Fire Assassin. Setup speculation is still an excellent scum hunting tool.

In my defense, I ended up reading the majority of the game; the only part I did not read was Day 1. It just happened that the strongest case against you was your claim, which didn't make sense given the other two claims on the table. As it turned out, I was right for the wrong reasons, anyway.

Speaking of which, TheDominator37, "vanilla" doesn't necessarily equal confirmation that someone is town. Some moderators will give you that result for mafia goons.

[Equinox]

He asked me explicitly if he would get vanilla for mafia goons and I told him he would.

Huh. That explains why TheDominator37 was still 0.2% uncertain about RadiantCowbells.

[Equinox]

Does anyone else think the setup is unbalanced? 2 Goons vs 1 Tracker and 1 Doctor in the Matrix6 setup has a town win rate of about 43.8%. I figured my gated investigative role was similar enough to give a similar rate.

Knowing now that RadiantCowbells was vanilla, I think the setup was balanced as is.