Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Tyler the Creator]

and if creatures scum he did a bang up job on not reading the scum chat

like how did you literally miss everyone's claims?

[Tyler the Creator]

that seems like it would have been a topic of discussion

mean maybe he faked it but shrug xy is just scum we should kill that and move on

[Tyler the Creator]

But then who's mafia with xyzzy? creature/tool? And jaack is town?

mebbe jaack

[Dunnstral]

EHHHHH

I'm not so sure that they'd be mafia together though? Like if you looked at the way jaack was flipping his vote around day 2

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE:
for now

[Zulfy]

Ya no quieres mirarme
Ya no quieres hablarme

Votecount 3.04

Dunnstral (L-2)

: JFSF, Jaack, Creature

Creature

Toolenduso, xyzzy

xyzzy

: Tyler

Not Voting

: [Robert2424], Bins, Dunnstral

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-02 17:20:00)

Note: Still seeking replacement for Robert2424
Zulfy will be un available tonight so mod actions may be delayed

[toolenduso]

and if creatures scum he did a bang up job on not reading the scum chat

like how did you literally miss everyone's claims?

Not sure how willing I am to believe this. Creature didn't replace in until the beginning of the day phase, and a lot of stuff happened at once. Entirely probable to me that details could get lost in the midst of that.

Tyler, why xyzzy and not Jaack?

[toolenduso]

All right. Finished up ISO'ing the lynch pool, have some thoughts. Want to wait to hear from Tyler first and then will post.

[Tyler the Creator]

it's not really a super strong point for creature town i guess, but its something
plus keyser would have needed to bus ha into the dirt
plus jaack is wking it
plus xyzzy is pushing it
plus stuff

[Tyler the Creator]

Want to wait to hear from Tyler first

and are you seriously still considering me scum? just curious

think ive town told at least 100 times day 3 alone lol

[Tyler the Creator]

Tyler, why xyzzy and not Jaack?

i think that xy is scummier

[Jake from State Farm]

Prodge.

I see wee need 2 more votes. Let's go

[Bins]

: |

[Bins]

i wish xyzzy WOULD NOT POST IN SMALL BURSTS

[Bins]

like there's only so many times you can try to spark a dialogue with someone before the "maybe they're just social inept" turns into "okay yea they're scum who literally is incapable of engaging you at all

: |

ok i feel ya i really do

[Bins]

like i do this time it aint like zakk-o

[Bins]

VLA until Tuesday night

i can prob check up on tuesday tho but for now god save the queen

[Dunnstral]

Where is everyone

[Dunnstral]

For me I still think it's Creature + jaack/xyzzy is the thing

[toolenduso]

are you seriously still considering me scum? just curious

The way I see it right now is that you're in a pool of four people where two are scum. I have you fourth out of the four, but still.

To narrow it down further, I think there's one scum in {Xyzzy/Tyler} and one in {Creature, Jaack}. That's why I feel pretty confident town is going to win right now.

So, here's my ISO notes:

Jaack:

-#13 was an opportunistic vote on Robert.
-#66 is Jaack switching to ira without dropping his scumread on Robert, and right as Keyser is pressuring Jaack for his Robert vote.
-#221 is a bit of a reach with his reasoning for why I look scummy -- nothing in the game had really been all that "popular" at the time. I remember because the game was moving so slowly and it took longer than usual to see any kind of real wagon with momentum.
-Jaack's decision to vote HA over ira in #358 continues to strike me as being not partner-y. There wasn't really a pressing need to bus HA at the moment, and he had been pressuring ira for a while. This vote, in fact, sparked two more down the same page. Thinking about this in comparison to the way Keyser voted HA, I am thinking this looks less like a partner bussing than Keyser's did.
-I can let go of the fact that Jaack backed off HA following the doc claim while simultaneously doubtcasting the doc claim. That could go either way. But the going after Robert, and then continuing to go after Robert the next day, is something scum would do in that situation.
-Thinking some more about it, I don't think Jaack's logic in #635 makes sense. He gives two reasons for thinking Robert is the best person to lynch first. The first reason is that Robert could be scum with ira or with HA. I point out that it really wouldn't make sense for Robert to be scum with ira, and Jaack kinda sorta backs down on that point, but then brings out argument number two. Which is that if all three are town, Robert is the best to have die by a town mislynch. Which actually doesn't make a ton of sense to me. If we lynch Robert, then what happens is that scum have to kill ira because they'd assume ira would protect docHA. So HA's target that night wouldn't even matter. Whereas if we mislynched HA, scum would still kill ira. Either way it's the same outcome, but Jaack's using it like it's proof we need to lynch Robert first. And now we have an investigative clear on Robert, a townflip from ira and HA flipped scum.
-#1217 looks bad too. After spending a good chunk of the day arguing for why zakk isn't a good lynch, Jaack votes zakk on the grounds that "it's better to have a vote on a wagon than not." Why, exactly? His other read was xyzzy, and it's not like xyzzy was being widely townread or something.
-Dunn vote in #1700 comes at an opportunistic moment. The continued arguing for why Dunn is scum actually strikes me as being possibly town...just based on the grounds that it was clearly not the popular trend and it would have been easier for scum to just back off and go "oh yeah guess I was wrong." I'm not totally convinced of this one, but it's my gut feeling on it.
-Doubtcasting on Bins' claim is bad.

Keyser:

-OK, Keyser's unvote of Jaack in #205 is actually a little weird now that I look back on it with fresher eyes. Keyser had already stopped scumreading Jaack a while ago, and since then had just been kind of talking with other players and asking them questions. But he waits until now to unvote Jaack, and he doesn't have anybody else to put his vote on? Just seems sorta self-conscious.
-The reaction to ira in #295 is a little aggressive/defensive.
-#297 is where Keyser responds to HA and votes him, and suddenly a possibility comes to mind which I have no idea how I never thought of it before. What if it was HA bussing Keyser and not Keyser bussing HA? As in, Keyser had just come under pressure from ira and Dunn had already stated his "sneaking suspicion that Keyser was scum." What if HA decided it was time to distance himself from Keyser in case Keyser wound up being the day's lynch? This is making sense to me right now. Given the lack of wagoning that happened before this on D1, it could make sense that scum would wind up going for each other instead.
-The three-part takedown of HA's entire ISO beginning in #912 does seem a little excessive. It's like Keyser was looking for any evidence he could to show why HA was scum. Overeager, perhaps.
-Creature's contributions are much fresher in my mind and I've already summarized my thoughts on them so I'm going to skip them for this analysis.

Xyzzy:

-Again, Xyzzy responding to their own posts in #89 makes it seem like the post-by-post analysis is just filler on show to look like they're doing work. And again, the Zachstral vote was an easy one to make.
-Don't like xyzzy questioning ira but then softening the blow of it by saying they don't necessarily disagree in #158. Comes across, again, like they're trying to do work but lack conviction in it.
-Same deal when questioning Jake's vote of Zachstral in #174.
-#447 and #561 is Xyzzy coming back and, after not doing much of anything with HA up until that point, deciding to go back and reread HA's ISO. Then Xyzzy comes back with a scumread on HA. This is all happening with HA at L-1 -- this is a scummy-looking turnaround.
-Xyzzy didn't go for Robert after the macho claim in #652, noted.
-Xyzzy being happy about Tyler not dying in #698 seems like it might be a like "hey look I didn't know who was going to die!" moment. Like trying to sound ignorant.
-It kinda looks even worse in the context of #852. The reason xyzzy said they were happy Tyler was alive was because they were curious about a post Tyler made D1 saying to lynch Xyzzy or floof on D2. Then, after bringing up that post (could be an attempt to get some momentum going on the floof slot), Xyzzy votes for zakk.
-#1626 is more of xyzzy explicitly stating something to show that they didn't know what the night kill was going to be.
-I'm also a little leery of xyzzy saying in #2001 that Robert's claim "probably" makes him town. I should think it's the closest thing to a guarantee that Jake is town that we could get short of him being an innocent child. It just kind of seems like xyzzy is taking pains to be careful and cover all their bases, especially since they previously were talking about believing Bins' claim, which came after Jake's claim.

Tyler:

-I think I noted before that #505 looked like trying to set up another lynch based on a lynch that hadn't happened yet. Now we know that HA was scum and floof was town. I guess the thing I want to highlight here is the timing of this post, it happens as Tyler comes back right amid HA's doc claim and ira's CC, and it's his fourth post since all that happened. It just seems a little out of order, perhaps, since Tyler hadn't committed at that point to saying whether he thought we should lynch HA or ira. It's perhaps like he was trying to get out ahead of HA's scumflip, basically.
-And again, it has to be noted that Tyler switched to Robert in #628 after initially arguing against a Robert lynch despite the macho claim. Tyler leaving a door open to lynch HA in #646 doesn't help either, but I do concede that it makes sense from a town pov as well (if Robert was scum at that point then HA was certainly scum too).
-The combo of feeling "spooked" about how fast the wagon on xyzzy disappeared combined with the "im bored" vote on xyzzy in #1308 does seem town to me now that we know the zakk slot was town. Just because if Tyler was scum this would just mean that he worked against a mislynch he had essentially been pushing since the end of D1, and one that looked likely to go through.
-Some minor townpoints for standing up and saying dunn was town in #1731.

At this point, Tyler's hopped around between Jaack, Xyzzy and Creature. Coupled with his "I've been towntelling post," I am getting townfeels from him.

And there are a couple things making me lean town on Jaack as well -- some very scummy-looking things to be sure, but some towny things as well. One is the post from HA I highlighted before where it looked like he was treating Jaack as town, and another is Jaack choosing to vote HA over ira.

Xyzzy and Creature both continue to look like scum. Of the two, Creature looks bad whereas there's a possibility Xyzzy is just not that active and that's contributing to the scumfeels I've been getting on them. Vote stays on Creature.

[Zulfy]

TheOtherFiction replaces Robert2424. Make him feel at home yea?

[Dunnstral]

Welcome home

[Dunnstral]

thinking creature>xyzzy>jaack

I'm also getting kind of town vibes from jaack but he's just so scummy acting right now

VOTE: Creature

[Jake from State Farm]

Don't be fooled by dunn's niceness. He's confirmed scum. He claimed cop and I CC'd him and have voyeur results proving me as legit.


Please vote Dunn

[Zulfy]

Ella hace todo

again?

De todo de todo de todo

Votecount 3.05

Dunnstral (L-2)

: JFSF, Jaack, Creature

Creature(L-2)

Toolenduso, xyzzy, Dunnstral

xyzzy

: Tyler

Not Voting

: TheOtherFiction, Bins

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-02 17:20:00)