Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Zulfy]

Bounce it
Bounce it
I'm about to throw a couple thousand

Votecount 3.08

Xyzzy (L-1)

: Bins, Tyler, Toolenduso, Dunnstral

Dunnstral (L-2)

: JFSF, Jaack, Creature

Creature

xyzzy

Not Voting

: TheOtherFiction

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-02 17:20:00)

[Jaack]

Checking into to say that, while I may not be able to endorse an xyzzy lynch under the current circumstances, I think that it is an adequate enough lynch.

[xyzzy]

I'll

uneventfully

claim if anyone would like me to.

I mean, you basically just did.

that's true, yeah.

Can somebody posts some reasons why xy is scum? I can't seem to find them in the posts where the votes were made.

Here:

HA's interactions with...

(snip)

xyzzy:

-Only three mentions of xyzzy in HA's ISO, and two of them are when he's using xyzzy to explain his townread on Dunn.
-The third is in his readslist in #281, and it's an underdeveloped townread on xyzzy.
-This is maybe partner material.

Spoiler: xyzzy

-The three posts from #34-#42 are potentially scummy, and people noted it at the time. Xyzzy goes after Dunn in a kind of provocative way, only to keep their vote on Jaack and not really come to a conclusion on Dunn. Xyzzy's explanation in #59 is that the game is still early and they're going to wait to see what Dunn does later in the day. Just seems like it could be scum searching for a good first wagon to build momentum on without wanting to be too central in the push.
-I didn't notice this before, but in #89 (xyzzy's first post-by-post analysis), they talk about at least two of their own posts...a little bizarre, since I would think the point of a post-by-post analysis would be to scumhunt. Adding in a post from themself just seems like filler.
-I noted before that xyzzy's vote on zachstral in #89 was an "easy" vote to make. In #158, xyzzy responds to my point by saying that it's partially just a vote to get Zachstral to talk. The problem with that is that Zachstral had actually been posting quite a bit relative to other players at that point, while floof had only posted once and HA hadn't posted at all.
-The approach to Jake in #174 also bugs me a bit. Jake had naked voted Zachstral, and xyzzy responded by asking Jake about his reasons -- normally might come across as town to me, but xyzzy specified that they were fine with votes on Zachstral. Seems like trying to come across as suspicious while simultaneously trying to keep Jake's vote on Zachstral.
-#286 only adds to that weirdness, because xyzzy says Jake is scum and then says they're going to keep their vote on Zachstral. No mention of the fact that Jake was voting Zachstral, nor the implications for Zachstral's alignment if Jake -- who was voting Zachstral -- was scum.
-Xyzzy agrees with a point from HA that I thought did not make a whole lot of sense in #393.
-The turnaround on HA #447, #561 and #566 does seem kind of...opportunistic, for lack of a better word. It's just that xyzzy didn't pay a ton of attention to HA up until that point, and actually had kept their vote on Zachstral for most of the game. Then when HA gets close to being lynched, Xyzzy reassesses and gets on board with an HA lynch.
-Should be noted that xyzzy comes out against a Robert lynch in #652. If nothing else this tells us that if Xyzzy is scum, scum expected HA to die from the doc claim.
-In #852, xyzzy defends the all-D1 Zachstral vote by saying it seemed more productive than a Jake vote. This doesn't really make a ton of sense to me; I don't remember much of any pressure on Zachstral yesterday.

Overall xyzzy looks worse than I thought. The interactions with HA (from both perspectives) are not good, the posting and voting arcs are a little confusing and possibly event contradictory, and there's a general air of trying not to open themselves up too much.

To narrow it down further, I think there's one scum in {Xyzzy/Tyler} and one in {Creature, Jaack}.

(snip)

Xyzzy:

-Again, Xyzzy responding to their own posts in #89 makes it seem like the post-by-post analysis is just filler on show to look like they're doing work. And again, the Zachstral vote was an easy one to make.
-Don't like xyzzy questioning ira but then softening the blow of it by saying they don't necessarily disagree in #158. Comes across, again, like they're trying to do work but lack conviction in it.
-Same deal when questioning Jake's vote of Zachstral in #174.
-#447 and #561 is Xyzzy coming back and, after not doing much of anything with HA up until that point, deciding to go back and reread HA's ISO. Then Xyzzy comes back with a scumread on HA. This is all happening with HA at L-1 -- this is a scummy-looking turnaround.
-Xyzzy didn't go for Robert after the macho claim in #652, noted.
-Xyzzy being happy about Tyler not dying in #698 seems like it might be a like "hey look I didn't know who was going to die!" moment. Like trying to sound ignorant.
-It kinda looks even worse in the context of #852. The reason xyzzy said they were happy Tyler was alive was because they were curious about a post Tyler made D1 saying to lynch Xyzzy or floof on D2. Then, after bringing up that post (could be an attempt to get some momentum going on the floof slot), Xyzzy votes for zakk.
-#1626 is more of xyzzy explicitly stating something to show that they didn't know what the night kill was going to be.
-I'm also a little leery of xyzzy saying in #2001 that Robert's claim "probably" makes him town. I should think it's the closest thing to a guarantee that Jake is town that we could get short of him being an innocent child. It just kind of seems like xyzzy is taking pains to be careful and cover all their bases, especially since they previously were talking about believing Bins' claim, which came after Jake's claim.

I'll go point through point talking about my thoughts, because I haven't really fully responded to a lot of this:

-I don't personally feel that h_a's limited interactions with me are indicative of me being scum, or necessarily of anything at all.
-34/42/59 -- I basically didn't get what Dunnstral was doing at all at this point in the game; I was being cautious to avoid making dumb early mistakes.
-89 -- I mostly was just trying to contextualize my earlier posts and offer followup to them based on how others had responded; doing that in response to my own posts seemed like a reasonable solution given the fact that a lot of people had said things regarding my posts, and there was no strong reason to pick anyone's response to specifically say something about.
-158 -- Zachstralkita was talking a lot at that point, but it was nothing but filler.
-174 -- I don't want someone voting for someone without a clearly stated reason. if he had motives that didn't feel faked for doing so, I would've been happy with his vote being where it was.
-286 -- finding one person scummy but not as scummy as the person you're voting for isn't really a good reason to move your vote.
-393 -- I generally feel like the move of just directly asking someone a question like "are you scum?" to see their reaction has some validity; later, there was reason to question h_a's use of this, but I don't think the basic concept is an inherently flawed one.
-447/561/566 -- "It's just that xyzzy didn't pay a ton of attention to HA up until that point" -- I'd pretty much agree; once I started paying attention I saw problems.
-852 -- that's fair. I agree that, in retrospect, my day 1 voting didn't accomplish a whole lot.
-158 (2) -- asking "why do you believe this thing you said is true?" isn't indicative of disagreement; in this case, I was basically neutral on the subject.
-652 -- I'm not really sure what you mean by this.
-698 -- I was genuinely super curious about Tyler's post, more due to the call to lynch me than anything else.
-852 -- as noted, my interest in that post had far more to do with my mention on it.
-1626 -- I was surprised, because I had felt confident up until that point that Zachstralkita was scum, and that was my genuine real life reaction.
-2001 -- I'll agree that the timing of that was pretty poor for me.

I've gotta admit, I've kind of had most of my energy drained from me in this game, and I've not been nearly as active or attentive for much of it as a result; I've been somewhat sick for about 2 weeks now, and I've also been dealing with some really bad personal things that have taken away a lot of my motivation, and on top of that, there was a period where every single time I returned to the thread there were 5-10 new pages, which hasn't really been great for my ability to meaningfully focus on this game. if I happen to live, I'll definitely be trying harder as I get back to normalcy, but I just wanted to apologize for my significantly lower contributions to the game lately. I think those factors are part of what's making me look scummy right now, which is obviously bad for me, but in general it's just bad for the game as well, so I'm sorry my real life issues have been getting in the way of the game lately.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Creature

[TheOtherFiction]

Now, TOF, I have done what you asked. Please do what I ask and answer these questions:

1) Have you read the entirety of D3 -- essentially, Dunn's claim, the retraction and the aftermath? If not, I will post a summary for you that will explain why we should not lynch Dunn.
2) Who are your top three picks for today's lynch, in order?
3) Do you agree that if Dunn is town, Jaack and Creature are likely not on the same scumteam (because it's unlikely both scum would try to lynch the easy mislynch like that without having enough town support to make the lynch actually happen)?
4) What do you think of xyzzy?

1. Yes, and I was really gunning for Dunn's lynch in my initial post because of the sheer convenience of his cop claim. (With a BG dead, my role is significantly more likely.) It was safe to "clear" a mostly confirmed town, and it outted the doctor. However, other people's reactions to his gambit covered my feelings, so I erased it. I still really don't like him, and if anything, I want him lynched cause it would provide more information, and since GF isn't blacklisted, it's a pretty safe call that he should be lynched before lylo.

2. I wish I had an order, but I only have a top 2: Dunn Jaack. I outlined why I really dislike Jaack's early game behavior and setting up lynches for day 2 on what turned out to be a scum flip. However, he said that the town should lynch Robert (my role) first, and if scum, then lynch h_a. Since I would flip town, that means h_a would be less scummy as a result of my flip. This is doesn't sit well with me. However, with h_a flipping town, he wrote along piece trying to get Robert lynched day 2 anyway, and that level of tunneling is suspect especially how he gives up on it (showing lack of conviction after a ridiculous level of tunneling) to just go with the lynch for the day. It's very suspect to me. Dunn, on the other hand, provides a lot of information and is too dangerous to keep in the game later.

3. It's day talk, so given the multiple views on the matter. Is it less likely? Sure. But it would have been better not to acknowledge this so that the analysis of how the wagoners might abandon the wagon is more information.

4. In my lasdt post, I said xyz is an issue for me because I don't see his play as scum or town motivated but disengaged player motivated. I think I am leaning very slightly scum, but only because I can better reason his disaffected state as being the result of:
semi-afk partner
h_a got destroyed day 1
He doesn't wanna put in effort to fix it.

Since Town has a scum lynch within first 2 days, the only way a town can be disaffected is if he's (personally) feeling railroaded by scum and no one wants to listen. This is less likely as a person who is town could at least work and say "hey, when I flip town, look at the play of people pushing me" or try to find some sort of pattern on what happened in the past.

But, xyz's last post is KIND OF like that, talking about posts over the past few days so we have something to reference should he be lynched today. Scum could also do this, so reading him is just flat out harder cause its difficult to read anyone who just doesn't give a fuck. :/

[TheOtherFiction]

Also, wtf Creature!? Dunn is likely scum, let me agree with him? Care to explain a bit?

[Dunnstral]

Creature's just scum

let's flip to him

[Jake from State Farm]

Sad to say due to a death in the family I've got to replace out.

mod please replace me

[Bins]

):

sorry for your loss Jake

[toolenduso]

Shit sorry Jake. Best wishes.

I'm not sure if Creature is more likely to happen than xyzzy. Things might change with Jake's replacement, who knows.

VOTE: Creature

I might take a closer look at what xyzzy and TOF wrote, like later. I am pretty buzzed rn now tbh.

[Bins]

I've gotta admit, I've kind of had most of my energy drained from me in this game, and I've not been nearly as active or attentive for much of it as a result; I've been somewhat sick for about 2 weeks now, and I've also been dealing with some really bad personal things that have taken away a lot of my motivation, and on top of that, there was a period where every single time I returned to the thread there were 5-10 new pages, which hasn't really been great for my ability to meaningfully focus on this game. if I happen to live, I'll definitely be trying harder as I get back to normalcy, but I just wanted to apologize for my significantly lower contributions to the game lately. I think those factors are part of what's making me look scummy right now, which is obviously bad for me, but in general it's just bad for the game as well, so I'm sorry my real life issues have been getting in the way of the game lately.

I'm sorry to hear about the personal things. But if you really are town, you need to stop lurking. Because you went from wall stuff to nothing. And you don't always need to post wall stuff. And the face all you've done so far is this null-analysis is really hard on the town, because you aren't engaging anyone. It may be in your best interest to replace out, regardless of your alignment anyways.

VOTE: Creature

[Bins]

1. Yes, and I was really gunning for Dunn's lynch in my initial post because of the sheer convenience of his cop claim. (With a BG dead, my role is significantly more likely.) It was safe to "clear" a mostly confirmed town, and it outted the doctor. However, other people's reactions to his gambit covered my feelings, so I erased it. I still really don't like him, and if anything, I want him lynched cause it would provide more information, and since GF isn't blacklisted, it's a pretty safe call that he should be lynched before lylo.

There's a really weird thought I've been having that I want to toss around re:Dunn's stuff.

Let's assume Dunn was scum. Then he'd have to be GF. His initial reaction was "GF is blacklisted, so I don't even see what you're saying." Initially, this bugged me because I didn't know GF was blacklisted. And thought, maybe Dunn had extra information / had done research and stuff because it was his role. But now I'm thinking, if Dunn was scum, his best argument BEING GF and knowing GF ISN'T blacklisted was "Hey no, GF is blacklisted." Which would a) be a really shitty play in terms of fairness and sportsmanship (trying to deceive based on false rules) and I doubt he would do that but also b) why would his main argument be something that will easily be refuted and something he knows is not true?

I just don't think scumDunn knowing that GF isn't blacklisted (because it is his role) would use that as a defence.

[Zulfy]

Triste final para ti, triste final para mi
olvidarnos mejor será hoy

Votecount 3.09

Creature (L-1)

: xyzzy, Dunnstral, Toolenduso, Bins

Dunnstral (L-2)

: [JFSF], Jaack, Creature

Xyzzy

: Tyler

Not Voting

: TheOtherFiction

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-02 17:20:00)

Note: My condolences Jake.

[TheOtherFiction]

1. Yes, and I was really gunning for Dunn's lynch in my initial post because of the sheer convenience of his cop claim. (With a BG dead, my role is significantly more likely.) It was safe to "clear" a mostly confirmed town, and it outted the doctor. However, other people's reactions to his gambit covered my feelings, so I erased it. I still really don't like him, and if anything, I want him lynched cause it would provide more information, and since GF isn't blacklisted, it's a pretty safe call that he should be lynched before lylo.

There's a really weird thought I've been having that I want to toss around re:Dunn's stuff.

Let's assume Dunn was scum. Then he'd have to be GF. His initial reaction was "GF is blacklisted, so I don't even see what you're saying." Initially, this bugged me because I didn't know GF was blacklisted. And thought, maybe Dunn had extra information / had done research and stuff because it was his role. But now I'm thinking, if Dunn was scum, his best argument BEING GF and knowing GF ISN'T blacklisted was "Hey no, GF is blacklisted." Which would a) be a really shitty play in terms of fairness and sportsmanship (trying to deceive based on false rules) and I doubt he would do that but also b) why would his main argument be something that will easily be refuted and something he knows is not true?

I just don't think scumDunn knowing that GF isn't blacklisted (because it is his role) would use that as a defence.

Except it would be in his best interest to play town? Consider he is scum and is GF, and he already knew GF was blacklisted. Upon seeing his PM, he might find out if this was a mistake. As such, it would be reasonable to act what he (dunn) would have done had someone brought up the GF argument: "What? No, GF is blacklisted."

This follows because town dunn would have been surprised, so a scum dunn (trying to act town) should logically say the same.

It's also possible that given the rarity of the role (I have been in one game that used it several years ago and no others), town dunn could also reasonably question "is that role allowed?" see that it is blacklisted, and then say 'yeah, no guys, it's blacklisted."

Both scum and town dunn could do this, and since I don't know his personal skill as a mafia player, I can't say whether or not he'd be clever enough to think about this, but he could have planned this outcome from the start since it was possible he'd need to fake claim and suspected a cop was in the game (as, in this scenario, he's GF. Kinda pointless without a cop.)



A better argument against lynching Dunn is the scum perspective on claiming cop today. One of them is dead, so there are only two. The only reason for dunn to get himself killed outting the cop is if the third member has been erroneously cleared by the town. This would be very difficult to do with, say, my role (the most cleared of non investigated roles, but I don't recall who the other Jake result was) because claiming can't be bodyguard townie is both a poor claim AND scum have little reason to suspect a BG + cop power role in town since the GF would weaken the cop enough to possibly allow a doctor (or paranoid doctor, whatever, I don't balance games).

Therefore, the odds that dunn is scum go down because it would be slightly insane cause scum have day talk. This kind of gambit pays very little off and they could organize a much, much better plan than this.

So, if I had to guess from an actual consideration, dunn is unlikely scum. His wagon has Jaack and Creature, both of whom I dislike. Shame day 2's lynch wasn't informative.

I think I'm willing to HAMMER Creature, but not sure if we should consider waiting for Jake's replacement.


(This post is a bit all over the place, woops)

[TheOtherFiction]

Quick reread on relevant stuff:

the Jake/Dunn thing not resulting in a Dunn lynch is so insane.

Rereading different parts of this game wildly changes my town/scum reads. :/

[Dunnstral]

The only reason for dunn to get himself killed outting the cop is if the third member has been erroneously cleared by the town.

In which case you're mafia and we're both godfathers ?

[Dunnstral]

Oh you're arguing against it

I thought GF was blacklisted because that's what I learned after joining the site. I didn't read in-depth to realize this game for some reason isn't following current rules. (which have been active ever since I've joined the site)

Yeah as GF I don't have a reason to make a big spectacle about there being a gf

I think creature is most likely scum and would honestly just rather get a move on and have jake's replacement come in during the night

[xyzzy]

this was mentioned a long while ago in the thread, but the change to godfather being blacklisted in normal games went into effect in April, and Zulfy entered the mod queue well before then, so this game was eligible to have one; however, I think the gambit of pretending to not know this fact as evidence that you can't be one would be... a really dangerous plan, to say the least, so I don't think the scenario where Dunnstral is a godfather is plausible at all. and I think the fact that Dunnstral as a godfather would logically have to know that there is a cop (in order for his role to make any sense in the context of this game) means that the fake claim is way too dangerous to be worth it.

[Jaack]

Checking in once again to say that while I still cannot support the lynch of any player other than dunn, I continue to see the futility of arguing that today and I have no other major problems with a creature lynch.

Between creature and xyzzy, I believe xyzzy is probably more likely to be scum but that creature's flip will provide us with more info either way.

[Zulfy]

Tyler and Creature have been prodded

[toolenduso]

Well, I was hoping to get TOF on board with a xyzzy lynch (or Creature, now that we've switched to that), which would be nice because then we could have a lot of confirmed or near-confirmed players on the lynch, and hence hopefully avoid WIFOMing later on. If Dunn and Jaack are his top two, and he has read up today, that makes me a little pessimistic that it can happen. Pretty sure I've said all I can say on the Dunn matter, and so have other people.

Of course it's possible a Jake replacement could change things, but it would be shitty for anyone to replace into that slot because it's probably just going to die tonight anyway. It'd be like a public service replace-in.

@TOF: What about Creature, could you lynch that slot?

[toolenduso]

Also,

Please remember that Dunn has to at least be lynched before mylo/lylo

Can anybody explain this thought? Is it only true if you think Dunn is scum?

[Tyler the Creator]

doesn't look like i missed much lol

[Tyler the Creator]

Checking in once again to say that while I still cannot support the lynch of any player other than dunn, I continue to see the futility of arguing that today and I have no other major problems with a creature lynch.

Between creature and xyzzy, I believe xyzzy is probably more likely to be scum but that creature's flip will provide us with more info either way.

guys read this; he's like transparently talking out of both sides of his mouth

[Tyler the Creator]

"dunn is the only lynch ill support"

"but ill lynch creature or xy"

xy is more scummy but creature provides more "info"

like those don't feel like real thought processes and it makes me wonder which one of those two he's looking to bus if it comes down to it