Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Bins]

Unless they really wanted to fuck everything except Dunn's towniness to win them the game

[Dunnstral]

1)I can't believe you changed anime jazz hands. on the other hand Ibuki is pretty great.

2)I agree:

VOTE: Jaack

You should take a peek at Zach's avatar

We basically need to decide that Dunn is town or else lynch him today.

Thought we decided I was town yesterday
Also creature was scum so....

Basically who else would I target

Bins why are you a voyeur?

Not a psychological question

would I have put Creature at L-1 and then not move my vote once the wagon on him almost completely dried up if I was his scum partner?

No clue because you barely react to stuff

Creatures intent to hammer was awkward as fuck

As Dunn pointed out when it happened
Creature made a really strange switch in reads quickly
Almost like "oh ya he's fucked gotta scumread"

It looked like he was bussing jaack and also looked like he was bussing xyzzy so

Ehhh, I don't think xyzzy is the last scum in light of creature's flip. Creature was willing to hammer xyzzy, and I don't think that makes much sense, particularly since the last scum is most likely a PR, since town had a cop and means of protection for said cop.

I guess that leaves tool or tyler. Will have to investigate some more.

Not lynching tool or tyler before you regardless of what you investigate

[Dunnstral]

1)I can't believe you changed anime jazz hands. on the other hand Ibuki is pretty great.

2)I agree:

VOTE: Jaack

Scummy post

Ehhh, I don't think xyzzy is the last scum in light of creature's flip. Creature was willing to hammer xyzzy, and I don't think that makes much sense, particularly since the last scum is most likely a PR, since town had a cop and means of protection for said cop.

I guess that leaves tool or tyler. Will have to investigate some more.

Not as scummy post

But it is a scummy post from Jaack

He knows that once xyzzy flips town he's next so he has to try to casat doubt on other people while still leaving xyzzy open for an easy mislynch

[Zulfy]

I would prod Tyler but whoever that is doesnt read their alt's inbox

[Tyler the Creator]

[Tyler the Creator]

Dunn I do not approve of that avatar change just sayin

[Tyler the Creator]

gonna iso keyser quick and then vote

[Tyler the Creator]

Hi toolenduso! I was overjoyed to see your name on the player-list.

"see your name on the playerlist"

that line creeps me out

[Tyler the Creator]

VOTE: Dunnstral

This "no GF would do that" argument is terrible.

dunn is confirmed town btw

[Tyler the Creator]

meh.

vote:xyzzy

[Tyler the Creator]

jaack and tool are both more town than xy by play 10 fold

plus xy stapling their vote to creature is probs a bus

[Dunnstral]

Dunn I do not approve of that avatar change just sayin

??? You kidding this avatar is SWEET

[Dunnstral]

And it matches with Zachstral

[Dunnstral]

I think Jaack is mafia and xyzzy is town

[Tyler the Creator]

We should really remove xy sooner rather than later.
Plus they're probably scum.

[Zulfy]

Votecount 4.02

Jaack (L-2)

: Dunnstral, xyzzy

xyzzy (L-2)

: Toolenduso, Tyler

Not Voting

: TheOtherFiction, Bins, Jaack

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-17 23:22:00)

[toolenduso]

We basically need to decide that Dunn is town or else lynch him today.

Well, consider this. On top of the reasoning for Dunn being town that we already had (why would a godfather gambit if they knew they were cleared by the cop?), we now have something else to throw on top of it: Dunn led the charge at the end of the last day phase to lynch Creature, who flipped scum.

Which, if Dunn is the last scum, why would he bus his partner when xyzzy was already on the table as a lynch option, AND most people remaining were already treating Dunn like town?

btw, odds of 4 scum? Low? I'm thinking low.

Pretty sure the only time I've seen 4 scum in a mini normal (or theme, for that matter) was when there were two scum factions, and there are clearly not two scum factions in this game.

would I have put Creature at L-1 and then not move my vote once the wagon on him almost completely dried up if I was his scum partner? I doubt very much that I would've done so. me being scum forces Creature and me to have been bussing each other to a really extreme degree yesterday.

You and Creature were the two wagons most likely to go through yesterday. So yes, it would make sense for you to bus each other under those conditions.

Still working on reverse interaction ISO readthroughs.

[TheOtherFiction]

I've seen it twice with a single scum faction. One had a mafia who only won if the godfather was dead and he was alive, and the other had a mafia who was actually a cult leader and won only if the cult won.

One was a theme, forgot what the other was, but I think that role is "usurper?" or soemthing? I dunno.

Anyway, I'd prefer a Jaack lynch cause of earlier play and the general neutral feel of his day 3/4 posts. Why xyz over Jaack?

[Dunnstral]

I'd also prefer a jaack lynch as I think he's trying to get the vote off of xyzzy just to save himself for later. He doesn't have a reason to suspect tool/tyler over xyzzy in his position as town

[Zulfy]

Correction, Jake From State Farm was a

macho

town cop

[xyzzy]

...I was thinking earlier as I was about to take a nap, a 4 player scum team seems incredibly unlikely in a game with a bodyguard and a macho cop.

[Dunnstral]

And a voyeur.

We don't really need another reason for me being town but why would we have a voyeur if the mafia team is two goons and a godfather

[Jaack]

Uff, been swamped, but tomorrow is free. Will get to this then.

[toolenduso]

Interactions that the remaining scum possibilities have had with the keyser/creature slot:

Jaack

-Starts off with an unexplained townread on Keyser in #66, which continues through #127. In #357 he has Keyser as his number one townread and says it's because Keyser has a similar train of thought to him. My gut leans town on this because the default for scum is to want to not look connected to their partners.
-Suspicion of the slot starts in #1620 after Creature replaces in.
-But he comes out and says he doesn't like the creature lynch in #2005.
-#2164 is kind of a weird post. It's Jaack's brainstorm on lynching between {creature, Jaack and Dunn}, and he actually more or less concludes by saying that town should lynch him (Jaack). He says in his post that Creature's flip wouldn't give anybody info on his own alignment...which, now that we've seen a scumflip from Creature, does look a little odd. Like it almost looks like Jaack is trying to preempt town's suspicion of him once Creature flips scum, but he doesn't want to lynch Creature.
-Comes in in #2219 to say he has no major problem with lynching Creature because it will give info. Also says xyzzy is more likely to flip scum, then in his next post (#2229), Jaack says he would lynch Creature first over xyzzy (while still saying we should lynch Dunn before either of them).
-It's interesting that Jaack's entrance to D4 was to say that xyzzy doesn't look as much like scum since Creature's flip. I can only imagine xyzzy would be the best mislynch option for scumJaack.

Tyler:

-Like I said when going through Keyser's ISO, there was a lot of "clinical" discussion going on between these two early game. I'm a little torn on #303 though, where Tyler asks Keyser about one of his points on HA being scum. It just feels like a non-partner thing for Tyler to do (talk to one scum partner about why he's bussing the third), but at the same time Tyler is clearly a competent player so it's not like it's hard to imagine him doing this as scum, sort of an atmospheric hey-look-im-not-partners-with-these-two-teehee thing. Idk. I feel like it comes out as a small townpoint for Tyler.
-Tyler says Keyser's approach to HA doesn't look like partners in #753, and I know he did this several more times later on as well. It needs to be noted, but then, I thought the exact same thing that Tyler did around that time, so.
-After Creature replaces in, Tyler does a look back at a VC in #1894 and comes to the conclusion that Keyser bussing HA might actually make sense. Says Creature is probscum in #1869.
-Waffles around a lot on Creature after that. In #2095 he puts Creature as his third preference for lynching. Says he'll hammer Creature in #2226.

Xyzzy:

-#89, xyzzy's first post-by-post analysis, includes a non-opinion on Keyser. Basically that they liked a post but don't have any conclusions from it. Seems like filler (which I've already noted in other aspects of that post and others that xyzzy's written).
-The note toward Dunn at the end of #89 actually strikes me as non-partnery. Xyzzy asks Dunn to let them know if Dunn's read on Keyser changes. Kind of a too-obvious vibe from this one.
-I think I've noted xyzzy's soft questioning in #158 before, but it's more significant now that we have a scumflip from the Keyser slot. Xyzzy was kind of trying to question ira over ira's vote on Keyser, but then xyzzy said that they don't disagree entirely. That's the kind of leaving-open-a-back-door I expect from a scum partner.
-In #393, xyzzy switches and says ira looks worse than Keyser.
-Says Keyser is probtown in #852.
-In #1959, says Creature's early posting looks bad but gives the slot a pass because xyzzy was townreading Keyser.
-In their next post (#2001), xyzzy turns around and says Creature looks worst by PoE, but they don't feel too strongly that Creature is scum because of Keyser's play, oh and Jake is probably town, and xyzzy trusts the people voting Creature so they'll vote Creature. This all looks like manufacturing reasoning to me.
-#2269 is WIFOM and totally fits a narrative where xyzzy was bussing. Like I can see the conversation in the scum thread now: "Are we fucked?" "Yeah probably. Maybe if you bus me you can still win." "OK I'm gonna bus you and you keep pushing Dunn and maybe there'll be enough support for a Dunn lynch. And if you get lynched I'll just argue that I bussed you so I can't be scum."

[toolenduso]

Why xyz over Jaack?

Here are two reasons:

1. The "scum coordinated on HA's claim" theory. Basically, since we know scum have day talk, I believe that they would have talked about HA's doc claim before he claimed. And since that's likely, it meant scum would have had a strategy. The strategy would have either revolved around expecting HA to live after the claim or expecting HA to get lynched after the claim. And again, because of day talk, I believe the other two scum would both adopt the same approach to HA's claim. Keyser/Creature reacted to HA's claim by immediately distrusting it, pushing to lynch the slot even harder than before, arguing for why ira's counterclaim was town and then continuing to push for HA's lynch even after Robert's macho VT claim. That means scum expected HA to get lynched. Tyler and Jaack both jumped on Robert as a possible lynch after his claim, while xyzzy continued to push for HA's lynch. Therefore, xyzzy looks the most like a partner working in tandem with the Keyser slot.
2. Creature's push on Dunn. This was done in tandem with Jaack. I don't think scum would both push on Dunn together the way that those two did. There was not a whole lot of town willpower to lynch Dunn, and it was obviously a risky play. Dunn's retraction meant, essentially, that town had just finished a quadruple play by all-but-clearing Jake, Robertslot, Bins and Dunn. In those circumstances, it would be very bullheaded for both remaining scum to work together on a risky lynch that would look awful if Dunn flipped town. This is basically an argument for Jaack being town more than it is for xyzzy being scum, but eliminating Jaack means that the only two options left are Tyler and xyzzy, and of those two xyzzy looks overall much, much scummier (see my previous summary of notes for TOF in #2183).

There are also a couple in my last post looking at xyzzy's interactions with the Keyser/Creature slot. Bins more or less said my thoughts on Creature's turnaround on xyzzy yesterday, and my last post looks at xyzzy's turnaround on Creature.