Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Ircher]

Except that's not possible cuz with the setup as-is, that would 100% tilt the game drastically in scum's favor.

[Bins]

yeah I'm joking

[Ircher]

@Bins
It might help you if you go ahead and vote....

[Bins]

idk yet i'd like tyler to say something

[Ircher]

Think about it this way: the one who hammers has to explain themselves.

[Zulfy]

Votecount 5.02

Jaack

: Ircher

toolenduso

: Jaack

Not voting

: toolenduso, Bins, Tyler the Creator

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-07-01 10:06:00)

[Bins]

Ughhhhhhhhh I'll look at this after Father's Day.

[Ircher]

I'm still here, if anyone wants to discuss reasons why NOT to lynch Jaack today.

[Jaack]

I would argue against my lynch, but I just sat in three hours of traffic in 115 degree weather in the middle if nowhere, so it'll have to wait for tomorrow, because I lack the energy at the moment.

[toolenduso]

Got prodded. Just back from a camping trip. Will post tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

Stuff like this kind of made me start to doubt myself a little bit toward the end of last week:

But I can see I'm pretty dead today anyway, so this is mostly for posterity.

Just because it violates the whole ethos of the last remaining scum who has to stay alive in order to win. So I thought about it a little more while out camping, and I realized it actually makes sense for scumJaack. Especially in the context of the last day phase, where Jaack originally was pushing for either me or Tyler to be the day's lynch instead of xyzzy. In this situation scumJaack has very few options, and needs to pursue those options in the least scummy-looking way possible. So he deliberately goes the exact opposite way scum would go (xyzzy was the easy lynch, so Jaack insists that it isn't xyzzy). He gets an assist when Tyler brings out a case against me, but he hung back without voting me to see what other players would do. Xyzzy comes out against me, and voila -- Jaack has an excuse to go after xyzzy

and

enough town players to get the mislynch through.

Lines like the one I quoted above are also, I think, part of the tactic. He's doing the stuff he knows goes against the grain of textbook scum. That's kind of an inelegant explanation but yeah.

I do want to give some attention to the NKs.

[toolenduso]

Spoiler: Dunn kill

A post in Dunn's ISO reminded me of this:

Don't sleep on the possibility that TOF is actually a godfather.

If TOF ends up in lylo its certainly something to consider

This could partially explain last night's NK insomuch as it explains why Dunn died instead of the TOF slot.

Whereas Tyler said right away he didn't think TOF was a godfather:

i mean playing into GF paranoia is one of scums very few plays to make right now so im not all too surprised

TOF has looked pretty town regardless - that's something you forgot to mention

TOF himself had Jaack as most likely scum:

If I picked an order right now (dunno if we'd lose at 2 mislynches? I think 3rd is a loss, but I can't math. Too tired)

Jaack
Xyz
Tool
is my order.

Dunn laid out his thoughts on scum relatively clearly before he died:

For the record I'm positive that Bins is town.

I actually feel pretty good about tyler too, and was feeling good about tool

Think it's still in xyzzy/jaack

So with xyzzy getting lynched, Jaack was next on Dunn's list.

Bins has been less clear, but this post definitely made it look like xyzzy and Jaack were her top two:

Part of me wants to say that I believe Jaack's reaction more than I do xy's now but ugh.

So if Jaack is scum, he basically had three more-or-less clear townies to choose from for the NK, and all three thought he was scum. But he had his "TOF might be a godfather" theory, so thought TOF could be useful to have around for LyLo. No clear reason I see to choose Dunn over Bins, but I suppose that's reason enough -- could've been a coin flip choice for all I know.

If Tyler is scum, he'd see a bunch of clear townies who didn't suspect him. In that case it actually might have made more sense for him to go for Bins instead of Dunn, since Dunn seemed to think I looked more like scum than Tyler, while Bins straight up said she'd vote for Tyler instead of me if it came down to LyLo. I mean that could go into WIFOM territory pretty quickly, but the scumJaack explanation for why Dunn died is much more straightforward here. Occam's razor says Jaack.

The kill before that one is Jake, and the reason why Jake died is obvious.

Spoiler: Zachstral kill

This kill was a little surprising. I can only imagine that scum didn't suspect Jake as the cop, or Bins as the voyeur. I also suppose they probably thought there was still room for the Robertslot (later TOF) to be lynched, and so they didn't want to eliminate that slot.

That actually points toward scumJaack as well -- Jaack kept pushing for Robert after Robert's claim, and then continued the push into D2.

Tyler was one of the people who voted Rob after Rob's claim, but the difference is that Tyler didn't keep pushing it. Tyler said, I think 200 posts or so before Zachstral's NK, that he was warming up to the idea of Robert being town (here).

On who might have suspected that Jake was an investigative, I don't see anything in Tyler's ISO (post-Jake's claim) to indicate that he caught on about Jake. Don't see any indication of that in Jaack's ISO either. So nothing to go on there.

Zachstral's reads are a little harder to look at as evidence for why scum would want to kill him. Zachstral made sarcastic votes, joked a lot and generally bounced around the game unpredictably. His last few posts showed he was townreading the Desmond slot (previously zakk and floof, here) and that he was on board with a lynch of either Dunn or xyzzy (here). Both have now flipped town. I went back a ways in the Zachstral ISO (not all the way through) and didn't see much clear indication of what his reads were other than that.

Lean Jaack on this one too, just because the Zachstral kill makes a little more sense if you think about it in terms of somebody who wanted to keep Robert alive.

Yep. I'm ready to do this.

VOTE: Jaack

[Ircher]

Someone hammer pls.

Preferably Bins.

[Bins]

I feel like HA is a good lynch. But I feel like it's a tad fast to lynch right now and I kinda want to sleep on this and come back and look at it with a fresher eye tomorrow. So in the meantime I'd like to ask for no hammers on H_A just yet. And certainly don't do it without getting a claim out of him first.

This doesn't look like a scumpost. Too obvious.

[Ircher]

@Bins
Anything to discuss before Twilight (cuz I'm assuming you'll be hammering?)?

[Bins]

I wanna say that my read on Tyler/suspicions on Tyler are very different from my suspicions on Tool. Which is true.

Tyler set up the Floof lynch. He led it. Which is interesting now that xy flipped town, because now I can't call it a counterwagon. Come to think of it, Keyser was completely MIA during the zakk v. xy lynch choice battle. That was completely town game except for one person. Anyways, beside the point. Tyler's read on Keyser also bugs the fuck out of me and I think that's the main reason. Because it's the only reason, that's why it's paranoia. He said Keyser was "pretty town tho" when looking @ Creature. Which seems like a v. likely buddy stance to take.

Tool is the opposite. Tool has done nothing I would deem incorrect in terms of logic. While Tyler's logic now seems to be opportunistic/scum driven/buddying, Tool always seemed very... logical. However, he was very MIA during a lot of the major stuff. I feel Tool and I aligned on a lot of stuff. But the reason I'm paranoid of Tool... is exactly that. I'm only townreading Tool because of what he has done. Not his tone, his mannerisms, his presence. All of that feels very null to me.

I don't want to say I don't think Jaack is scum. Jaack is also a very different paranoia. Jaack has been completely illogical and opportunistic this entire game. But his tone was very bold. Very unflattering when he would have been evidently bussing or trying to save H_A by going after Robert.

Anyways, that's my 2 cents. I know this LYLO is unavoidable if it happens.

[Bins]

1) hammer looks towny, why?

He showed intent, but didn't show much hesitance in his hammer, like I would expect scum to go "Can I hammer?"

2) robert is literally confirmed town so good job

Yep, sorry. Still wanted to add a comment on.

3) tool and i are different people thanks

Like I said, I didn't see anything particularly scummy, just a gut read.

4) that's not really true at all? everyone posted more day 1 than day 2 or 3 and xy has posted readable content on all of those days - which way is your read leaning?

I am currently seeing xyzzy as town.

5) all of his pushes? which ones? why?

Not all of his pushes, I disliked 673, he says his plan was to lynch Robert but decides to lynch h_a first, but in his next post he changes his vote to Robert.

6) what does "her claim is coincidence" mean precisely? Like you're saying she's scum because her results were easy to give? why can't that also be true if she's town

That can, but why can't that also be true if she's scum? I don't liker her behavior at all.

6/6 of these reads seem fake to me

This wasn't a very well thought read. I got time now.

One thing I do note is just how little voting Keyser did in this game.

Well, despite the lack of votes, he was genuinely pushing in D1. He can be considered passive at D2, the way he was focused on h_a posts points he wanted to scum hunt by association.

And how low-activity he was too.

Low-activity isn't very accurate, he could be busy or just not in a good mood to play mafia game. Seeing he stated he would replace out if he didn't finish his post, I believe it must be one of it.

That does go against what I remember of his town game,

Would like to see that game.

and Creature's entrance today fits scum very well.

How did you reach to that conclusion?

I am thinking atm that if Creature flips scum then Jaack would be less likely to be partner -- in which case I think I'd be looking at xyzzy based on PoE.

And if I don't?

[Bins]

This is too much. Ircher, if you are in LYLO, I hope you really go through the posts Tool makes when he votes Creature and the way Tyler talks about/approaches Creature. I really do think Tyler is more likely to be scum than Tool... by a big margin. And if Tool is scum, this is really well played by him. But I have never underestimated Tool's scumgame.

[Ircher]

I would read more if I did end up in LyLo.

I wouldn't vote immediately.

[Ircher]

Ooh, nearly forgot:

What were your other night results?

[Bins]

My full results were

N1 Robert was investigated
N2 Dunn was investigated
N3 Jake was killed
N4 Nothing on Tool

[Ircher]

Whats your thoughts on the fact that Tyler really isn't participating rn? (Nor is Jaack, tbf, but that's cuz of what will prob. be his impending doom, so he doesn't feel he can do anything and thus has given up)

[Ircher]

UNVOTE:

I'm gonna give Jaack til tomorrow morning to post a defense.

[Jaack]

Okay, let's get started

Just because it violates the whole ethos of the last remaining scum who has to stay alive in order to win. So I thought about it a little more while out camping, and I realized it actually makes sense for scumJaack. Especially in the context of the last day phase, where Jaack originally was pushing for either me or Tyler to be the day's lynch instead of xyzzy. In this situation scumJaack has very few options, and needs to pursue those options in the least scummy-looking way possible. So he deliberately goes the exact opposite way scum would go (xyzzy was the easy lynch, so Jaack insists that it isn't xyzzy). He gets an assist when Tyler brings out a case against me, but he hung back without voting me to see what other players would do. Xyzzy comes out against me, and voila -- Jaack has an excuse to go after xyzzy

and

enough town players to get the mislynch through.

I'm sorry, but this is totally wifom. I must be scum because I'm acting exactly opposite how scum would act.

Furthermore, at the time of my vote on xyzzy, both you and xyzzy had equal number of votes on them, and we were close to deadline. Why would I, as scum, swing the lynch towards the easier to lynch player in xyzzy. There was more unconfirmed room to hide in the tool wagon (which I imagine Dunn or bins would have hammered on at deadline with no lynch being the only other option) and xyzzy would have been far easier to lynch today than you.

[Jaack]

Spoiler: Zachstral kill

This kill was a little surprising. I can only imagine that scum didn't suspect Jake as the cop, or Bins as the voyeur. I also suppose they probably thought there was still room for the Robertslot (later TOF) to be lynched, and so they didn't want to eliminate that slot.

That actually points toward scumJaack as well -- Jaack kept pushing for Robert after Robert's claim, and then continued the push into D2.

Tyler was one of the people who voted Rob after Rob's claim, but the difference is that Tyler didn't keep pushing it. Tyler said, I think 200 posts or so before Zachstral's NK, that he was warming up to the idea of Robert being town (here).

On who might have suspected that Jake was an investigative, I don't see anything in Tyler's ISO (post-Jake's claim) to indicate that he caught on about Jake. Don't see any indication of that in Jaack's ISO either. So nothing to go on there.

Zachstral's reads are a little harder to look at as evidence for why scum would want to kill him. Zachstral made sarcastic votes, joked a lot and generally bounced around the game unpredictably. His last few posts showed he was townreading the Desmond slot (previously zakk and floof, here) and that he was on board with a lynch of either Dunn or xyzzy (here). Both have now flipped town. I went back a ways in the Zachstral ISO (not all the way through) and didn't see much clear indication of what his reads were other than that.

Lean Jaack on this one too, just because the Zachstral kill makes a little more sense if you think about it in terms of somebody who wanted to keep Robert alive.

This is a real reach.

If I were scum and really wanted to lynch robert, than I would have killed jake n2, since he was much more anti Robert lynch than anyone else d2.

Furthermore, I didn't push Robert at all going into d3, I pushed xyzzy in my opening post.

While I will admit that nothing about the Zach nk clears me or makes me look particularly more townish, the reasons you give for connecting me to it are non-existent.

Need to take a break, but will cover itches vca when I get back