Brexit

[Shanba]

[24-Jun-16 9:34:51 PM] Peter Dalton: I am busy amusing myself by imagining break up songs as being sung between the EU and the UK
[24-Jun-16 9:35:07 PM] Peter Dalton: it's saaad, oh so saaaad, WHY can't we talk it over?
[24-Jun-16 9:35:47 PM] Peter Dalton: sad to see you go, was kinda hoping that you'd stay
[24-Jun-16 9:36:02 PM] Peter Dalton: ne me quitte pas, ne me quitte pas, ne me quitte pas
[24-Jun-16 9:36:19 PM] Peter Dalton: now and then I think of when we were together
[24-Jun-16 9:36:34 PM] Myko: shanba stop :'(
[24-Jun-16 9:36:42 PM] Peter Dalton: YOU'RE A LITTLE LATE
[24-Jun-16 9:36:44 PM] Peter Dalton: I'M ALREADY TORN

[Shanba]

Reading all the racial abuse and discrimination as a result of Brexit winning is fucking terrifying and I hope it does not devolve into extreme levels of violence

Here's some context.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... -and-wales

The problem with this vote to leave the EU is two-fold. Firstly, the economic damage the UK will suffer as a result. What degree of economic damage is unkown, but it will be some amount - some companies will move abroad to dodge uncertainty about the UK's future - in particular, in the financial sector that London depends so heavily upon, there could well be a mass exodus (most likely to Frankfurt) as the UK's particular advantage for foreign (US) firms was that it provided easy access to the entirety of Europe's markets. Now that is in doubt, and the financial sector hates doubt. That will hurt London.

THere are other possible economic consequences. Until new trade deals are organised, anyone who exports to those countries will be at a disadvantage. I strongly suspect Article 50 will not be invoked until the exact details of Brexit are agreed - in particular, Britain's relationship with the EU - but the EU itself has hundreds of trade deals with countries around the world that the UK will lose the benefit of. Pure bureaucratic workload suggests at least some of these will not be renegotiated very quickly:

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2 ... 149622.png

UK is a net importer, but British exports will necessarily be hurt by this. On the other hand, UK exports are also getting the benefit of a cheaper pound, so maybe some of that levels out. Cheaper pound, however, means more expensive imports (the flipside) - directly harming consumers.

The UK also risks having it's credit rating downgraded, increasing the cost of borrowing. If this happens, since the UK has substantial national debt (despite years of austerity) there will be a direct and immediate hit to the UK's finances. See http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu- ... m-36626201.

That said, taking stock of the actual economic fallout of this decision is something that's probably going to be easier in retrospect. There are far too many variables to take into account to actually know how things will turn out. I would expect it to be somewhere from bad to disastrous, however. The real issue is the genie that cannot be put back into the bottle - the rise of the racist right - linked to the kinds of incidents you see in the article above. There was never any question that UKIP was tapping into these resentments, and the referendum has basically legitimised them. It's now OK to be racist in a way it wasn't before. This is a trend that is occurring all around the world, in every community - the establishment consensus on these issues is slowly being eroded. I feel we're entering a new era of fear and scapegoating, where being insufficiently "native" in any given country is becoming more and more dangerous.

Personally, I think I will be taking on Belgian citizenship now.