Open 648: Ari's Donner Party Mafia! Game Over! :O

[Realeo]

Good day. I'm impressed that I entered the RVS at page 2. Usually like page 5?

And do people still do RQS today? I thought RVS is the old king in the gang.

[Realeo]

My first impression scum is {cytheflyguy,Franky}

Accuracy level : ????

[Realeo]

My first impression scum is {cytheflyguy,Franky}

Accuracy level : ????

Why franky?

I'm just picking two names who I feel their opening feel awkward.

You don't ask why cy? Do you also scumread cy?

[Realeo]

Pissed off by you

is not equal to

Scumreading you

I have been in a situation where I town tunnel a guy that I really "hate".

[Realeo]

I have been in a situation where I town tunnel a guy that I really "hate".

VOTE: Realeo

It's not you. I'm not talking about you.

[Realeo]

To be honest, it's in your favor to respond first.

[Realeo]

Yeah, you said that already.
I fail to see how that's outside his expected range or why it's overblown. Can you fill those two gaps in logic up for me?

I will try to fill in this because I am also bothered by the same thing.

Have you ever heard the phrase, "The innocent relax, The guilty shouts." I mean, it's classic scene where your mom accuses your dad cheating, then your dad shouts back at your mom saying, "You bitch! How dare you accuse me of cheating! We have been marrying for 25 years! Do you never believe in me?"

And it turns out the father is cheating.

When I poke cy, cy just relax. When Dunn poke Franky, Franky becomes dad.

[Realeo]

This is shit 'cus mafia have daytalk and cy's bud might be telling him how to behave under pressure.

I fail to consider this. My bad.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Shinobi

[Realeo]

I looked through the links and I think alpaca from what I saw of his town and scum games will be the one I wait to see on this game.

Realeo: Why Shinobi?

Shinobi is in questioning mode. I want a conclusion. I think a vote will accelerate the process. Two will help, too.

[Realeo]

To people who are fosing Alpaca because "he's bleding into the crowd", can anyone explain it?

By the time the reasoning is shot at 72, Aplaca only posted twice. How do you call someone "blending into the crowd" with just two posts?

[Realeo]

There are 12 players in this game. You only have 10 people in your read list.

[Realeo]

Still 10. You forget Bins.

[Realeo]

For the record, you're sober, JR?

[Realeo]

I know the why. It's part of the sober test.

[Realeo]

Waiting for Jaereed to reveal that his reads list was upside down

I'm actually would be surprised if it's upside down given my meta on him.

[Realeo]

I have no scum game.

JaeReed's readlist seems legit. I isoed his readlist with page per page and it seems good.

The only question is,

JaeReed

, why the leap of Shinobi from middle tier at page#3 to top tier at page #4. He is the only guy to jump two tiers.

[Realeo]

I admit page #4 is rebuttal page of Shinobi but it's kinda too radical jump.

[Realeo]

Dunn seems town.

The reaction feels weird though.

Me was online when JR start posting and me being the bottom teir when Io literally put me in the top is like shocked.

So Dunnstral surprised is NAI for me. But what disturbs me is when he votes JR. Half of my brain says he's a scum panicking--but he later ractified his read on Bins.

I will put Dunn on SK list.

And my 163 is being ignored....

[Realeo]

Wut why is Dunn Sk again

His reaction is scummy but I reckon that if he's a mafia--he will be more relaxed.

Why he will be more relaxed as mafia? Psychology dictates that having a companion--like scum partner--helps to calm yourself because you know someone have your back.

Dunnstrall was being retaliated by JR, Bins and forsaken by me. No one has his back.

Dunnstrall town? Maybe. Dunnstral SK? Maybe. Dunnstral mafia? I don't reckon.

[Realeo]

I will move my vote to Dunn after Shinobi gives the readlist.

[Realeo]

I kinda confused at people who fos me due to that post. I told previously that I vote Shinobi to accelerate Shinobi's conclusion. I don't fos him. The moment he comes to a conclusion, I don't need to vote him any longer and I can go to the next suspect in the line.

[Realeo]

Hmm. ok.

Let me rephrase the sentence.

I fos Dunnstral to a level that I feel I need to vote him. However, my vote has other priority. I am foreshadowing the vote now so there won't be additional fuss afterward when Shinboi give his conclusion.

I mean, imagine Shinobi giving his conclusion than I move my vote. That would create more confusion.

Does this make more sense?

[Realeo]

Can someone rephrase the meaning? I am not exactly native speaker.

[Realeo]

Jaereed won't give a reason and realeo pretty much went on about how I'm probably not mafia, but I could totally be the sk but

didn't have a real reason

The reasoning is your panicking.

The reason I said "maybe" is I want to gauge people to give me reasoning why you are town.

I mean, gameplay went "WTF people, Dunn is town!" but he didn't exactly tell reasoning. How can I fish response if I show certainty? When I show unceratainty, people starts rebuttal me. Just like 104. I throw analogy, it got destoryed. I am expecting something in line like that.

[Realeo]

You don't????

[Realeo]

I ain't saying Dunn's argument is bad. I acknowledge him rectifying his read on Bins. He initially fos Bins then later fos JaeReed and I acknowledges it. What makes me wonder is why he is being impulsive when Bins enters the arena. I acknowledge his read but question his reflex.

About Shinobi, I get cranky if people don't make any accusation. I don't care if it's good or bad reasoning. I just want to pin you on the map and see you moving. That's why I am the first(or second?) one to put initial fos. I want to see the ball rolls. After the ball rolls, I can move on. I saw shinobi attacking Majiffy and Dunnstral, but does this mean he fos him or just simple interrogation? I don't know until he told me so.

[Realeo]

Two people are misreading my argument so I am going to use analogy. It helps with my argument with Franky

Video

I didn't dare to play it due to internet quota but if I'm right this is the video.

This is a video of a guy being surprised by another person. The pranked guy instantly punch the other guy.

Read:

You maybe in danger so punching is a good option

Reflex:

Don't you even bother seeing what is happening?

This is my problem with Dunn. His read is nice. His reflex when JR start producing the readlist and Bin joining the action disturbs me.

[Realeo]

I ain't saying Dunn's argument is bad. I acknowledge him rectifying his read on Bins. He initially fos Bins then later fos JaeReed and I acknowledges it. What makes me wonder is why he is being impulsive when Bins enters the arena. I acknowledge his read but question his reflex.

About Shinobi, I get cranky if people don't make any accusation. I don't care if it's good or bad reasoning. I just want to pin you on the map and see you moving. That's why I am the first(or second?) one to put initial fos. I want to see the ball rolls. After the ball rolls, I can move on. I saw shinobi attacking Majiffy and Dunnstral, but does this mean he fos him or just simple interrogation? I don't know until he told me so.

I think I've been particularly vocal wrt my distrust of majiffy.
Is there any reason you think the opposite?

My experience shows that it's not always the case. You kinda have to be explicit sometimes.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Dunn

[Realeo]

Why are you so confident you're in the top? I mean, even before the JaeReed incident, I still put you on null.

[Realeo]

farside, I'm confused.

Do you live with internet server that takes 24 hours to update?

[Realeo]

OOT. Does anyone see Io as scum? Because I am thinking that I may be able to use gameplay's argument on cy at Io.

[Realeo]

I got town so fk u I aint votin

What type of person actually sees this as pro town?

Is he like this in other games too? xD

Btw, for anyone wanting to use this as an argument that I'm just joining the biggest wagon (bc I get that a lot xD),

I'm compleltly not doing it for the same reason the other two. xD

VOTE: JaeReed

(1) I do
(2) So why? Because the 2 questions feel forced?

[Realeo]

*cough* *cough* Prod time for Franky, Aristophanes.

I was just about to check that!
Thanks for this though!

[Realeo]

@

JaeReed

. Why are you townreading me now? Coz I sheep you? I ain't D&A.

[Realeo]

Time to pressure goon and SK. I love setup spec.

I have a question. If SK and Mafioso are the final two and SK don't have his protection remaining--is it mutual win or mutual loss? I was thinking mutual loss because the clause says

kill all killers and 50% control

for mafioso and

last player alive

for SK and nobody complete their victory condition since they kill each other????

[Realeo]

farside, I'm confused.

Do you live with internet server that takes 24 hours to update?

No.

Why do you ask?

You are agreeing with Dunnstral vote at JaeReed when Dunnstral already moved his vote to Franky.

[Realeo]

A three ways draw or two ways draw?

[Realeo]

Okay so the long post from JaeReed bugged me.
I'm curious to read why he thinks Dunn is scum and all I saw was based on dunn's franky push.
I just find the point garbage since frank hasn't come back at all to respond to dunn.

So you're saying that JaeReed is mafia for fosing Dunn having a trash argument on Frank?
So JaeReed is scummy for trash's trash?
If JaeReed is scummy for trash's trash then can't Dunn is scummy for trash as well?
Or are you implicating that it's impossible for {JR,Dunn} to be a scum team?
Or I am missing the point completely?

[Realeo]

HERE!

You work hard, but new page is after every 25 posts. That's just 15 posts.

[Realeo]

Another thing I will say. I am now pretty confident Cy and Dunn are the Mafia team.
And it's mainly for how Dunn's early gameplay in the RVS played out.

In post 17, Dunnstral wrote:
VOTE: cytheflyguy

OK second post in the game. Really nothing really of note here just RVS. And their next post looks like just a light hearted joke.
In post 23, Dunnstral wrote:
Holy moly cy is scum guys

I say it's light hearted because it honestly didnt' take long for them to move on in the RVS, and #56 looks like they even had a change of heart and now want people to stop voting for Cy.

In post 56, Dunnstral wrote:
Everyone voting Cy should flip to franky


Now I've already said why I think they are scum for the Franky interaction, but what I didn't notice was their opening and trying to shift people off of Cy in the RVS and onto Franky.

The argument actually make senses. One caveat, if it's {Dunnstral,Cy}, do Dunn really need to shift his vote off Cy? Wouldnt people shift off their vote normally? It's RVS after all.

[Realeo]

But I think this is the right time for Dunnstral to explain the shift from Cy->Franky.

[Realeo]

I personally labeling cy TOWN. I find that it is easier to label him "An overexcited town with Town of Salem mentality" where we know ToS mentality don't really fit here instead of "Fumbling mafia who is flailing".

[Realeo]

But I think this is the right time for Dunnstral to explain the shift from Cy->Franky.

Because Franky looked scummy and opportunistic and so I voted him

You mean this one?

VOTE: Cy
3 pages in one night fk u
But this guy seems like a legit place to place a vote
Liking Realeo as town

Indeed
VOTE: cytheflyguy

Legit argument actually.

[Realeo]

UNVOTE: Dunn

I really want to solve {Bins,Io,Franky} before sorting out {Majiffy,Dunnstral} who are in my second teir of priority.

[Realeo]

Why not? For me, Shinobi >Dunnstral so I move the vote.

[Realeo]

[*] Majiffy : I have seen people who follow the principle "I am innocent! Don't care!" and I have seen he played in that fashion before he was banned. I am actually disturbed by Bins.

[*] Franky: I just want to hear more.

[Realeo]

If it's meta then I am royally disappointed.

[Realeo]

Noted.

[Realeo]

I reread and lo switches reads on dunn and it only happens after others expressed that view.

I will throw in that Shinobi kinda falls on this area.

[Realeo]

UNVOTE: Dunn

I really want to solve {Bins,Io,Franky} before sorting out {Majiffy,Dunnstral} who are in my second teir of priority.

Can I point out that all alpaca has done is lob questions while pushing no scum reads at all.
I looked at the links and I give the guy credit his town/scum game have started to blend but typically he has reads about players more when he'said town.

Mmhmm. I noticed that too at Jea's questionings

Am I missing context because I failed to comprehend the meaning?

[Realeo]

FRIENDLY WARNING THAT EFFORT AND ARGUMENT QUALITY IS NOT (NECESARILY) ALIGNMENT INDICATIVE.

I reread and lo switches reads on dunn and it only happens after others expressed that view.

I will throw in that Shinobi kinda falls on this area.

What exactly are you saying here?

At day 2, fry says "Alpaca is scummy for bleding in" and you sheep fry.

I can't believe it.

The shinobi I know is a journalist who is going to poke around other's player logic and won't let their prey get away with fallacy.

So for Shinobi just follows fly and votes Alpaca is a question mark. Why so easy? I personally associate Shinobi with Anderson Cooper and I know Anderson won't vote Alpaca that easily.

[Realeo]

What confuses me about Cy is he keep using emoticons like xD and that really throws me away.

gameplay argument is completely valid and to be honest more seems like scum flailing instead of town with questionable fos (shinobi in my case) but the xD though.

At one point, I feel like this is town trying to express himself. On the other hand, this maybe actually classified fillering.

This maybe seem stupid, but this is fucking seriously flustered.

[Realeo]

Guys. I think I just made a breakthrough.

Using meta search, I have found correlation that the number of xD used by Cy is related with his role.

The hypothesis is: The more often Cy uses xD, the more likely cy is scum.

I am going to tabulate the result in a minute. I maybe wrong but I kinda confident that it's the case.

[Realeo]

Newbie 1700: 21 xD for 3 day flip = 7 xD each flip

Town

FakeGod's Summer Waltz : 48 xD for 4 day flip = 12 xD each flip

Scum

Note: Cy didn't speak at all on 2 day flip, so 24 xD each flip?
SirCakeZ Adventur Mafia: 13 xD for 6 day flip = <2 xD each flip

Town

This game alone? 41 xD.

I may make mistake. Recount please.

[Realeo]

I am possibily counting xD twice or more due to quote (I use Iso btw), but by all mean, please recount.

[Realeo]

Guys. I think I just made a breakthrough.

Using meta search, I have found correlation that the number of xD used by Cy is related with his role.

The hypothesis is: The more often Cy uses xD, the more likely cy is scum.

I am going to tabulate the result in a minute. I maybe wrong but I kinda confident that it's the case.

> doesn't want a meta case on dunn
> meta cases cy

Realeo, don't do this to me.

No. Here's the thing.

Common meta is usually a voluntary thing.

In Cy's case, this is a not voluntary thing. You can't play with this. You can't alter this. It's like someone who always lips their lip when they lie or play with their poker chip when they flopped a full house. You can't help.

And do we really expect a Town of Salem player to modify his meta that radical? Do Town of Salem player intentionally uplift his amount of xD when town?

"Oh. I flip town today. I am going to raise the number of xD."

It's not a giveaway, it's not a done deal, but LOOK."

[Realeo]

I am going to check Newbie 1705.

I maybe want to deliver reasoning why Shinobi is possible town, but later.

[Realeo]

New entry.

Newbie 1700: 21 xD for 3 day flip = 7 xD each ]flip

Town

FakeGod's Summer Waltz : 48 xD for 4 day flip = 12 xD each flip

Scum

Note: Cy didn't speak at all on 2 day flip, so 24 xD each flip?
SirCakeZ Adventur Mafia: 13 xD for 6 day flip = <2 xD each flip

Town

Newbie 1705: 46 xD for 5 day flip = * xD each flip

Scum

This game alone? 41 xD.

I will check for this game. cy quoted himself a lot this game.

[Realeo]

New entry.

Newbie 1700: 21 xD for 3 day flip = 7 xD each ]flip Town
FakeGod's Summer Waltz : 48 xD for 4 day flip = 12 xD each flip Scum
Note: Cy didn't speak at all on 2 day flip, so 24 xD each flip?
SirCakeZ Adventur Mafia: 13 xD for 6 day flip = <2 xD each flip Town
Newbie 1705: 46 xD for 5 day flip = * xD each flip Scum

This game alone?

41

33 xD.

I will check for this game. cy quoted himself a lot this game.

(Done)

[Realeo]

No. No matter how much I have faith in statistics and data science, I would like to see lane's conflict resolves first.

[Realeo]

I feel like vigilante can kill cy easily.

[Realeo]

So you questioned people like hell then vote without making any comment? So that's how your roll altogether?

[Realeo]

I am not only talking about lane, I am talking about your vote @ Alpaca during D2.

[Realeo]

*page 2

[Realeo]

It just makes no senses.

So analytical thinker (like gameplay) + voting on impulse (like far) = Shinobi?

I was under the understanding that analytical thinker + voting on impulse = 404 not found.

[Realeo]

Policy lynch? It doesn't really smell like "I scumread Majiffy". I can see you scum reading Dunn, but not Majiffy.

[Realeo]

I like people who try to do things.
I don't like people who don't try to do things.

Why on earth would I

ever

lynch someone who's trying to push a read over someone sitting in the corner and doing nothing even though they're capable of doing so much more?

That's exactly the definition of policy lynch! "He's trash. Kill him!"

[Realeo]

I read. You're not exactly making policy lynch like in EpicMafia ("He doesn't have avatar! He's stupid newbie! Kill him") but the reason you choose majiffy>cy is.

The reason I make fuss over this policy lynch is this game has

3 nightkill

Fucking. 3. Nightkill.

I maybe can accept a policy lynch at newbie with only 1 nightkill, but 3. Please think something else.

[Realeo]

I'm sorry for getting carried. I never get used to killing fiesta. One of the reason I don't play Town of Salem anymore. Too many death.

You're working with numbers way too low to actually get anything accurate.

Which is why I denied gameplay's request to vote with him.

[Realeo]

I think we need context.

In one side, I understand line's argument: Why the fuck vote somebody who doesn't vote.

In other side, I understand Bin's argument: Our scenario is unique. If it's a guy who siteflake like a Newbie game, yeah. But Franky actually online and didn't siteflake. So we thought he's intentionally lurking.

[Realeo]

*why the fuck vote somebody who doesn't post

[Realeo]

On a side, note please do not refer to Summer Waltz the game is still in progress.

Thanks.

Aish. I forgot about it. cy flipped so I tally it. My bad.

[Realeo]

Oh please. Stupid push. If I recalled correctly, only gameplay votes on you.

EVERYBODY STOPS TALKING NOW AND WAIT FOR MAJIFFY TO TALK!

[Realeo]

I think super analytical is the wrong word. Super journalistic is the right word.

[Realeo]

Even though there is no such thing as super journalistic, I am confident that everyone but you understand what I mean.

[Realeo]

Nevermind don't answer, I pendant wouldn't understand anyways

If you don't even hazard a guess, why do I need to answer?

[Realeo]

Hint for lane: Try to iso Shinobi+Majiffy+Dunstral in one page. You'll see the conflict.

[Realeo]

I'm beginning to think that both Bins and farside are scum.

I've had this nagging feeling that Bins has kind of been talking about nothing, IE her posts about me/majiffy unvoting and voting which seemed somewhat superficial. Her vote on Dunn (which came for what I'm assuming is a nonexistent reason) doesn't help matters at all and her whole thought process seems relatively disjointed.

Farside's read flip on Io seemed to come at a really unnatural time. She had started pushing Io so long ago and only very recently started looking into her meta way,

way

after the fact once nobody jumped on the wagon on her. (Not to mention the switch came after she found a new wagon and the meta case she came up with is nowhere to be found. What changed? It's a mystery.)

I still think Majiffy is a reliable third so I'm keeping my vote there. Otherwise, that's where I currently stand.

I kinda agree with your argument on Bins. Farside? Could it be possible that she's playing with feeling? I mean, if Farside is playing with feeling, then bias is going to be a factor and the biggest bias is going to be recent events.

Example:
->Io was completely out of radar until I mentioned about him @ 318. When I talked about Io, he starts talking about Io.
->When Lane throws about Shinobi, he starts voting you, maybe swayed by Lane's argument.

If this feels weird, think about supporter of Donald Trump. Most Donalud Trump voter are emotional voter. "OMG, there's a radical islam attack at Nice" *silently moves from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump*

[Realeo]

@lane

I kinda flustered at you so let me hazard you an explanation since you don't even try to guess.

He got into a fight with gameplay

Idk Cy seems really awkward, fake and whatnot.

Can you elaborate on this a bit more? This answer doesn't particularly sate me.

No
You're annoying. bb

Sorry for asking you to play the game, I guess?

I am playing the game, searching for scum and you're sitting there asking me dumb questions.
I find my answer satisfying enough and you aren't going to get another one so sorry.

But you aren't saying anything. Throwing a hissy fit and spitting in my face because you can't elaborate on a scumread is not a good look and isn't going to impress or convince anyone.

He got into a fight with Dunnstral by questioning his logic

Yeah, you said that already.
I fail to see how that's outside his expected range or why it's overblown. Can you fill those two gaps in logic up for me?

Because I naked voted him basically

And he acted like I was "so sure" of my vote and overreacted and such

And so I'm keeping my vote on him

This doesn't really answer my question.

He got into a fight with Majiffy for being lazy.

What you're used to from me?

Aggression.
Oomph.
Passion.

Here, you just seem kind of floaty and whatever about things. It bothers me.

And this happens in page 5!

Which is why I'm labeling him super journalistic (for keep asking) and Dunn label him super analytical (for keep poking Dunn's logic)

Before you say "That's not analytical", let me say that there's something called figure of speech

and for Dunnstral, he's using a figure of speech called irony.

Show me 2 posts of him analyzing anything. It should be easy to find something that isn't majiffy or alpaca being lackluster. Some real super analyzing. There isn't any

You're arguing over whether he was actually thinking about his stuff in depth or trying to appear busy

I wasn't saying either of that however

[Realeo]

Me and Dunstral (I believe) are making this call by its

quantity

, not by its quality. I haven't decided Shinobi at all.

[Realeo]

Oh My God. You're not being sarcastic????

[Realeo]

Farside goes from voting to defending Shinobi. Shinobi goes from scumreading to not anymore. That's shady as shit

If I recalled correctly, this is 2nd occurence.

[Realeo]

I'm taking the liberty to be a pseduo-asshole and

Prod request for Majiffy

[Realeo]

Can we at least eliminate {gameplay, farside, JaeReed} from today's lynching block?

We're 5 days from the deadline so it'll be a good idea to eliminate some nominee.

I'm not exactly townreading JaeReed, I still have some shroud of doubt, but want to know your opinion.

[Realeo]

Aish. I keep forgetting of the concept of time zone difference.

[Realeo]

Welcome back!

[Realeo]

Maji I dropped the Cy tunnel because nobody else was agreeing nor willing to vote. Also at some point I actually saw a slight chance of me being wrong. I am still up for cy but I won't waste all my time if nobody is even going to read my.posts.
Secondly @mod I am voting.Bins not cy

I can confirm this. Currently, I am statistically tired to pull quote but I remember that gameplay giving up on cy.

[Realeo]

Can I propose lynch on {Cy,Alpaca,Majiffy}

This is a POE so if you want to know why I came to this result, it will easier for you to ask why I eliminate certain person.

I am on the tipping point whether Majiffy/Dunn.

[Realeo]

@Majiffy

Ye cy is scum but nobody is going to vote him so meh.
He

is

going to get lynched and you are going to see he is scum but ok.

Vote:Bins

Idk who to.vote at this point. I see shinobi as town, Far vs shinobi seems town. Idk bout Maji was thinking of.voting him but I really don't feel.its right mainly because he has posted so little. Was thinking of voting Alpaca as well but iso'ing him made me think newbtown. So I will just go with Bins. Dunn is still town too.

@Cy

I asked you something don't ignore.me.for the 3rd time.

[Realeo]

So aside from those 4 do you at least town lean everyone else?

That is correct. It's POE. I am simply have hard time of eliminating you.

• At the beginning, I dislike how Bins keep making reference to his life, like Shinobi pointed, but he changed as game progress so eliminated.
  
• I think Io is good? If anyone want to rebuttal this go ahead.
  
• Since day 1 I marked gameplay v farplay a Town v Town.
  
• I can't make even an excuse as JaeReed is scum. I am still open, but skeptical about it.
  
• I don't really need to explain line?
  
• Shinobi bothers me, but he is pretty much being consistent on his train of thought. His train of thought is
  I hate inactivity nor "inexplainable reasoning"
  . I disagree with this line of thought but I think he was being consistent, including during line v shinobi.

That leaves me:
{Cy,Alpaca,Majiffy,Dunn}

Cy? Deep down in my heart, I want that meta to become True. Bias aside, I can't really eliminate him. I can't create excuse not to eliminate him.

Alpaca? You're just null, but I'm townreading a lot of people.

Majiffy/Dunn is a problem. I'm not convinced anymore Dunn is scum, but Majiffy is kicking in activity. I am still waiting for JaeReed's big argument.

So I fos {Cy,Apaca,Majiffy}, but I am still open for {Bins,Dunn,Io,JaeReed}

[Realeo]

GoodMorning replaces CyTheFlyGuy!
Thank you so much, and have fun! =D

This is a pleasant update Hi GM!

[Realeo]

VOTE: GM

[Realeo]

VOTE: Majiffy
His profile gif scares me

Hasn't really talked about Majiffy since this post

Are you still voting him because his profile gif scares you?

I'm not exactly sure but isn't this a classic scum tell? Their fos and their vote doesn't sync?

[Realeo]

VOTE: Alpaca

[Realeo]

@Alpaca So you question his roleblocker claim?

[Realeo]

I dont know where u got that but no I beleive it.

Sorry. Half doozed.

[Realeo]

It's going to be a deadlock 6-6.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Alpaca

[Realeo]

The let down is not the fact that Shinobi is lynched.

The let down is the fact that neither {GM,Alpaca} ded. I feel, tunnelvision time.

[Realeo]

My basic instnict is to vote Alpaca, but he's vla unlike GM so it's kinda unfair to vote him.

On the other hand, I'm very happy xD that the meta observation turned out to be correct xDD. I never guessed that such a xD will contain a decisive clue to the puzzle xD.

[Realeo]

*back to serious mode*

Dunn couldn't be sk.
Dunn couldn't be in a cross-fire with JaeReed, or we will have the body already. An exception though, it's possible Jae the vig kills Dunn. Maf kills Jae? Since GM is not the scum, it implies that Dunn is not scum.

But here's my hypothesis:

Scum tried to frame Dunn by killing JaeReed. But Vig or Sk turned out to kill Dunn. Let us be honest, if Dunn is still alive D2, GM may still survive today D3.

Why would we ever quicklynch with just the rb info? In this setup? Why are you wary of that?

Frame kill? I agree with Bins that it's possible to be a frame kill, but if it's a frame kill, it doesn't work.
Quicklynch maybe an impression due to GM's ultra quick lynch?

[Realeo]

Dunn can't be SK.

SK have 1 time nightkill protection (if he's killed simultaniously, it still doesn't work. He must be killed again tomorrow) and 1 time roleblock protection.

If he's SK, he will still be alive D2 even if he got shot N1.

[Realeo]

Unless we are arguing that vigilante tried to kill farplay, the SK twice (N1 and N2), then SK is still on the table.

[Realeo]

I am going to assume that you accuse Gameplay as sk?

[Realeo]

Gameplay have been pushing on cy/GM from get go. Unless you're saying he's bussing him from get go. I mean, well yes, I remembered that you accuse gameplay for stop pushing on cy when the wagon collapses.

I will reread, but I have to admit that it doesn't click.

[Realeo]

Real kind of has a point. But clearly you're the type to reject evidence in favor of gut.

Hey! I present ridiculous number about Cy's xD meta, so I am capable of evidence.

Here's the thing. When you are scum, you are meant to have a strategy. We town do scramble like chicken, but scum are a little bit organized.

Majiffy suggest that gameplay's strategy is to bus cy from a very early point.

If this is a classic mafia v town, gameplay has a lot to gain from bussing cy and I will seriously consider Majiffy's argument.

But this is multiball. Yes, gameplay may get towncred, but he may get killed by sk instead. At this point of the game, I think sk will focus killing town. Mafiasos are sk's enemy, but at the beginning, they are "friends" for making the game quicker.

[Realeo]

I throw a hypothesis earlier.

I think the reason JaeReed is dead is scum want to frame Dunnstral, but by magic-o-magic, he got killed by SK or vig. The question, who on D1 scumread Dunnstral?

I have an actual train to catch, so I will try to chime in in train.

[Realeo]

Thank you xD.

[Realeo]

Alpaca, why the quick hammer on page 1 of day 2?

Thank you! I am waiting for you to ask for this.

[Realeo]

OK, so Dunn has to be Town. Almost 100% sure of it. There is a slight chance that he was a Goon, but not a huge one.

Quite the contrary. I almost 100% sure that Dunn is 100% scum. There is a slight chance that he was a VT.

[Realeo]

No. You stahp.

D1's kill is Dunnstral and JaeReed right? 2 kills only. Let us assume that vigilante doesn't kill

Dunnstral <- killed by SK
JaeReed <- killed mafia

But why would sk kill Dunnstral?

Let us flip it.

Dunnstral <-- killed by mafia
JaeReed <-- killed by SK

But why anyone kill the lynch bait?

SK definitely going to kill, due to roleblock immunity.

Dunnstral <-- killed by vigilante
JaeReed <-- killed by SK

Where's mafia kill? Roleblocked by lane.

[Realeo]

The only rebuttal is JaeReed is killed by both SK and maf. Which is why I say that there's a little chance that Dunn is VT.

[Realeo]

Jiffy - It's been a long time since I played Jiffy and he's being understandably less of a dick atm, so this one's going to be difficult. I like the interactions with Shinobi. Not much else there. Null/Slight Town.

GM is V obvious

I think this is NA. GM is basically mentioning the obvious. Majiffy was just released from permanent ban and Zoraster warned him that any minor mistake will mean that Majiffy re-enter the blacklist. He's understandably less of a dick atm. He can't risk being a dick that will result in another permanent ban.

[Realeo]

I don't know how much stock I put into that xD thing but it sounds legit so I should probably be voting there huh

interested to hear what cy has to say about it

So does Dunn.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Alpaca

[Realeo]

My votes today are Maji/Alpaca and maybe just maybe lo just because she is the other one I am not sure on.

Well you're voting the wrong one.

The only real problem is the SK could have been attacked just as easily as Mafia being roleblocked.
And honestly I don't see why Dunn would preform the kill as there was a good chance he was being roleblcoked in the first place.

That's a good argument, actually. I fail to consider that.

[Realeo]

L-1 majiffy... Intent to hammer. Last quick wagon was a success lol

When you put it that way...

[Realeo]

The only real problem is the SK could have been attacked just as easily as Mafia being roleblocked.
And honestly I don't see why Dunn would preform the kill as there was a good chance he was being roleblcoked in the first place.

That's a good argument, actually. I fail to consider that.

On second thought, I will rebuttal this.

And honestly I don't see why Dunn would preform the kill as there was a good chance he was being roleblcoked in the first place.

The one with the lynch wagon is GM. GM can't risk killing it right? Especially when lane hinted that "You can't convince me over Alpaca. You can only convince me over GM"

SK could have been attacked just as easily as Mafia being roleblocked.

lane is an open target. Why don't kill him?

[Realeo]

Some people are going for {Majiffy:maf,Alpaca:sk}, I encourage you to lynch the sk first. Even if Alpaca flips Sk but the game doesn't end, that indicates my prediction is wrong, we can still roleblock Majiffy. Granted, it's possible that mafia wifom with majiffy, but (1) at least it's not unstoppable like Sk. (2) Lane can infinitely roleblock majiffy for Hapilly Ever After. I don't think this is an ideal ending, but I think this should be at last given consideration.

[Realeo]

Before someone chimes in, JaeReed cannot be the vigilante. I don't know about farplay.

[Realeo]

But at that point I thought chances are if she has time to sit down and make an organized defence someone will hop off her at least to hear her out and than we might forget about her and hop on a compeltely different wagon and at that point i didnt want to risk it.

I kinda understand your feeling, lane. =p

[Realeo]

@Aristotaphanes : Please explain the consequence of Happily Ever After

[Realeo]

In post 1292, Realeo wrote:
@Aristotaphanes : Please explain the consequence of Happily Ever After
Please clarify what you mean.
Unless this is one of those "when does a consecutive lack of killing action end in a draw?" questions. In that case, the answer is after 3 phases, as it appears to be the site standard.

Some moderator grants the victory to Town as long as at least 1 town member survives. Some call 3 ways tie while some call 3 ways loss.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Alpaca

That's a hammer.

[Realeo]

This fake hammer is obviously a bad investment. My bad.

[Realeo]

I've tunneled buddies so hard they've replaced out.

Clarification

cy replaces out of all game that he played, not only this game. Unless you're saying that he was tunneled on all those games.

[Realeo]

To everyone who is fosing gameplay and Majiffy, explain like I'm a 5 years old. Why would any of them will kill farplay? Farplay townread both of them.

Wifom? God, give me a break. You don't play wifom unless in end game, or else the message will not be sent.

[Realeo]

Ok. I feel better ignoring fos at gameplay. Thank you for the reference.

Before we move on. Did my argument that mafia is ded makes senses? If people rejects my proposition then ready or not I must attack D3 differently.

[Realeo]

I feel that I'm tunneling, but this tunnel feels different... Feedback plz.

[Realeo]

Maj, how are you feeling about lo lately? You asked early if we are going to just let her skirt by. And we have. I'm pretty sure she killed dunn

I personally have been trying to insert Io's name in my argument for scum/sk, but I kinda fail to find the proof.

[Realeo]

The thing that rattle dazzle me is why I'm not dead? farplay and me are (1)universally townread--with few exceptions (2)Push on {GM,Aplaca,Majiffy}.

If I were SK I'd gun for the mafia ASAP, the sooner you get them down to the same level as you the better.

I always considered this. However, personally if I'm SK, I will just kill JaeReed, frame Dunstral as a lynch bait and spend my kill on other player. But that's just me.

[Realeo]

See I think lynchbait opportunities should be saved for late-game. You do it early and people aren't likely to fall for it again.

That clicks. Not 100% agree but that clicks.

Dunn <-- Killed by SK.
JaeReed <-- Killed by Scum. (I don't think vig?)

Logic dictates at this point, Dunn and JaeReed are T v T, correct? The next question will be, why will JaeReed killed by scum. Why not roleblocker instead? lane already called GM's plan to fake CC at d1 and GM hardclaimed not-roleblocker, so the opportunity to wifom the roleblocker is off the table...

You should always try and mislynch as scum with the exception that at some point in multiball you will want to lynch or kill your opponent.
Just not day 1-2 or night 1.
I get the idea of hiding a dead mafia but it would be very likely all Mafia and vig are dead if there is only 1 kill day 2 and 3 so killing Mafia night 1 only works for like 2 day phases

Is it possible for vig to no-kill? Maybe we face a competent vigilante, for once.

[Realeo]

That clicks. Not 100% agree but that clicks.

The reason I not 100% agree with Majiffy's

See I think lynchbait opportunities should be saved for late-game. You do it early and people aren't likely to fall for it again.

is that I don't believe that's the case in a game of Vig v SK v Maf. If it's SK v Maf with town having no vig, I agree. On a case where there is a vig, a sk kill can be confused as a vig kill and people believe that it's not a lynch bait.

I will play ball for the time being.

[Realeo]

If Dunn is not scum, then why either SK or Mafia kills JaeReed? Why not lane? That is the only question that I failed to answer and the only way to answer it is by involving Alpaca. It only has 1 assumption, so it obeys the almighty Occam Razor.

[Realeo]

So I fos {Cy,Apaca,Majiffy},

POE 3OF3

I really want to play with everyone in the ruture.

[Realeo]

I like how I always make at least 1 good argument and at least 1 bad argument.

Like I can't have a flawless victory.

[Realeo]

Ari, did you win as Moderator? How many page top did you make?

[Realeo]

For those who are wondering why Ari has temporary OCD with page top vote count:

I sent him this role PM.

Moderator

You are

Moderator

You win when you post votecount on pagetop at least 50% of the times.

[/quote]