Micro 641: Confirmed Guilties (Game Over)

[BTD6_maker]

I'm working on a full probability analysis.

[BTD6_maker]

Also, this is from Town's viewpoint, not mine, so while I know Creature is confscum, I will not take that into account.

[BTD6_maker]

Suppose Infinity were Town.

In this case, Wingback, CR, and enomis are all scum for voting Infinity. In addition, Infinity is voting Creature so Creature is scum.

Hence Infinity being Town implies {CR, Creature, Enomis, Wingback} scum.

However, Farside22 (Town) is voting DLA (Town). This is impossible.

Hence,

Infinity is confscum

.

Your lies are no match for a Townie armed with logical analysis.

VOTE: Infinity

I have solved this already.

[BTD6_maker]

This is true regardless of whether you (Creature) are scum (you are) and even whether I am scum (I'm not). Though if I were scum I would not sgive this analysis out loud to Town. I would have ruled out this setup immediately in scumchat.

[BTD6_maker]

Confirm Infinity

[BTD6_maker]

Town won the moment I detected a pattern in my analysis. Next time scum should pick a setup that isn't broken. I'm sure I can help with that .

[BTD6_maker]

By the way, Creature is NOT confscum. IF Creature is Town a logically plausible scum team is {myself, DLA, Enomis, Infinity}.

Also,

Zoraster, Infinity self-hammered the lynch

.

[BTD6_maker]

I can check CFJ's setups for you, if you want.

[BTD6_maker]

This is truly the biggest mistake you could have made. You sent scum a "very basic setup that shouldn't be broken" that was actually broken. If 1 is Town the scumteam is {2,B,C,D} but 3 is voting A, which is impossible. Therefore 1 is confscum.

If you ever run this setup again, let me know. I would like to help with giving scum the recommendations.

[BTD6_maker]

That is not broken. Other teams include {2,A,B,C} and {1,A,D,E}.

[BTD6_maker]

1234ABCDE
=========
AAAA11122: Not broken
AAA141114: Broken (If 1 is Town, {A,B,C,D} so 4 is Town and E is scum, which is impossible)
AA4344433: Not broken
AAA144411: Not broken
AAAB41114: Broken (If 1 is Town, {A,B,C,D} so 4 is Town and E is scum, which is impossible)
AA4341344: Not broken
AAB433443: This is not a legal setup. What I presume you mean is:
AAB344334: Broken (If 3 is Town, {4,B,C,D} so A is Town and 1 is scum, which is impossible)

AAAB41441: Broken (If 4 is Town, {A,B,C,D} so 1 is Town and E is scum, which is impossible)
AAA142411: Broken (If 1 is Town, {4,A,D,E} so 2 is Town and B is scum, which is impossible)
AABC34334: Broken (If 3 is Town, {A,B,C,D} so 4 is Town and E is scum, which is impossible)
AAB334134: Broken (If 3 is Town, {4,A,B,D} so 1 is Town and C is scum, which is impossible)
AAAB41124: Broken (If 1 is Town, {A,B,C} and either D or 2 so 4 is Town and E is scum, which is impossible)
AABC13434: Not broken

Again, Zoroaster, if you run this or something similar again, please let me know.

[BTD6_maker]

You will need more setups in the list. If scum pick a "BTD-approved" setup currently, AAAA11122 and AA4344433 are bad (Town can lynch whoever has 3 votes). AA4341344 is also bad (lynch whoever has 4 votes).

This is not a complete broken as scum may have picked a setup that was not on my list, plus there is a lot of WIFOM potential here. This is why going by raw probabilities is often not helpful.
However, in both remaining BTD-approved setups, scum have a 1 in 3 chance of winning. I am not sure if it is possible to get better or if it is even meaningful (due to WIFOM).

[BTD6_maker]

My idea for a new version is that if Town lynch scum then scum must compulsively kill a Townie. Then everyone voting someone now dead will receive a new Guilty. It would ideally be White Flag because the 3P LyLo is a guaranteed scum loss.

[BTD6_maker]

I just ran the program again and used a more automated way to produce the output.

@BTD6_maker

: care to check the following setups for me?

Code: Select all

1234ABCDE
=========

AAA324433
ABBB11441
ABB114441

AA4324433
ABBB14441

ABCB14331
ABCC12421

AAA344433

AA4344433
AAA334433
AAAA44433

ABCC12421
ABCB12331

ABCC12221
ABBB14331
ABB113441

AA4A34433

If there are any problems here, there's something wrong with the program.
Otherwise, I guess 2012-me was either overconfident or having a bad day.

None of these are broken. Be careful, though, as I saw ABCC12421 twice.

[BTD6_maker]

If you or Zoraster ever run another one of these setups or something similar (and I have the right permissions) I can be your co-mod.