Micro 639: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game Over]

[GuiltyLion]

Hi everyone

I think we should lynch the scummiest of the 4 corners today

VOTE: Lane0168

[GuiltyLion]

If we lynch the middle, we lynch a confirmed town and allow scum to kill their preference of the 4 corners

If we lynch our preference of the 4 corners, we might hit scum, and we force scum to kill the IC which removes WIFOM NK manipulation

lynching the middle is clearly worse

[GuiltyLion]

But we have full control over the scum kill if we lynch the corner too, since scum trivially lose if they don't kill the center after that.

Then we can force the kill again with our lynch on D2

I'm pretty sure town can force every scum kill in this game, if I'm thinking about it correctly. Which makes lynching in the corner better as we have a non-zero chance of lynching scum.

[GuiltyLion]

also D1 scumhunting just simply won't work if we all agree to lynch a confirmed townie

[GuiltyLion]

Can't force a scumkill on them, but we can guarantee that we'll lynch them as follows:

alpaca

lynching Luna Fox would force a D3 lynch on Alpaca

umlaut

lynching atm would force a D3 lynch on Umlaut

or Dunnstral?

eh you got me there, but lynching Dunn on D2 would be safe (although it would give scum semi-free reign for D2 night kill)

We're not going to be able to force certain players to be scumkilled if we play in the center either. After the scum NK and our D2 lynch, you'll have the same problem that you're pointing out here. You're just delaying this problem in the setup by one day, after you lynch confirmed town.

[GuiltyLion]

My point is, let's say we go your plan, scum kill atm, we lynch java, alpaca turns up dead, now we're forced to lynch Dunnstral, scum is forced to kill lane, and everyone else is immune from NKs

[GuiltyLion]

But I just showed you how "after that we can still go wherever we want" is false. Reread what I'm saying, when scum kill in the corner D1 our lynch on D3 is still going to be mandated by scum.

Also Luna the strats are just gonna get more gnarly on D2 so I hope you're willing to think about it and contribute at least a little bit. And yes, that's exactly true.

[GuiltyLion]

I would like others to weigh in on whether they think Lane is arguing with my points in good faith.

[GuiltyLion]

eh okay yeah I see what you're saying more clearly now, you're right about that. I think I was assuming we always wanted to lynch the scummiest on D2 regardless of where the first scum kill happens, but you were saying we can kill the scummiest either way by lynching or lynching opposite them to force the NK on them.

I'll think about this, have to run for the evening now

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty I've got a town read on you. Did you fool me before? Oh I just remembered I almost fooled you in that multiball. Anyways, I think if we lynch the opposite corner from me and those two sides it should be a win...

Haha Lane I think I've been town every time we have played together

also I am thinking you are town here
UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

My strategy is keep upper right corner alive. If scum don't kill IC then we'll win from tic tac toe. If they do everyone in bottom left dies.

This is the best approach, I think. If we can all agree on a corner block with three townies, we can lynch the opposite corner and force the other six players to be killed. Worst case scenario is both scum are in the block of 3 and we lose, meh scenario is a 2-1 LYLO, best case scenario is autowin.

What do people think of {lane, GL, javajoe} as a block? Unfortunately I'm not all that inclined to believe in town!java

[GuiltyLion]

atm hasn't picked up his role pm and confirmed yet, according to the mod

you think that makes the slot likely to be scum?

[GuiltyLion]

feeling sliiightly better about your alignment after that response

[GuiltyLion]

If we lynch atm, then scum are forced to kill McMenno

then we have 4 choices of lynch: Alpaca, GuiltyLion, Dunnstral, Lane
(lynching anywhere else would be -safe- from a tic-tac-toe perspective but would give scum a free kill on whoever they wanted and the ability to drive the rest of the game)

if we lynch Alpaca, scum are forced to kill Dunnstral, then we are forced to lynch lane, then scum are forced to kill GuiltyLion
if we lynch GuiltyLion, scum are forced to kill Lane, then we are forced to lynch Dunnstral, then scum are forced to kill Alpaca
if we lynch Dunnstral, scum are forced to kill Alpaca, then we are forced to lynch javajoe, then scum can kill whoever
if we lynch Lane, scum are forced to kill GuiltyLion, then we are forced to lynch Umlaut, then scum can kill whoever

so in 50% of worlds you're left with {java, umlaut, Luna} final 3, in the other 50% we don't know who LYLO will be

[GuiltyLion]

(this is all ignoring the question of the alignments of the players involved, obviously)

[GuiltyLion]

I'm calling a Luna+Alpaca scumteam tbh. I'm drunk rn but I'll be back for actual play tomorrow

Also mod I unvoted Lane but it doesn't matter so here's another
UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

When you are back, I'm interested in talking about the Luna scumread.

I am back

Basically I am scumreading Luna because I think she is trying to appear helpful and townie while not actually pushing anything that changes the gamestate. I also felt 57 was a scummy vote, the way she says "I'll trust your strategy" feels like a subtle way of deflecting blame.

Weirdly enough I am fine with a Dunnstral lynch even though I think he's more likely to be town than a few other players because I don't think the scumteam is java-Lane or java-Umlaut, both of which would be the only two teams (FMPOV) that have a clear path to win if we lynch Dunnstral (and java-umlaut would still have to work to secure an Alpaca mislynch). Lynching Luna today would basically guarantee Alpaca to survive until endgame so I don't want to go there.

[GuiltyLion]

Thanks for typing those out Wingback.

For a Luna Fox lynch I like option 2, for a Dunnstral lynch I like option 3. But that's mostly shaped by me not wanting Luna or Alpaca to make it to final four people alive.

[GuiltyLion]

Not sure I want Umlaut and Javajoe at the end. I suspected bussing when Umlaut pushed on Javajoe so early in the game. In this setup bussing isn't a bad idea given the lynch setups are mostly determined in advance so in scenarios where scum die, it's best if their partner comes out looking good by having accused them.

I guess I can sort of see this, but think about the end game here: with Umlaut advocating a Luna Fox lynch followed by a java lynch, Lane is forced to be NK'd, followed by obligatory Dunnstral lynch, followed by scum forced to kill Umlaut. If he's scum committing to a bus on a partner starting with a vote on Luna Fox, it comes out as an auto-loss for him in the end.

Can you explain your scumread on Alapaca?

Alpaca is active lurking. He hasn't once offered a legitimate effort to sort people, instead what he has posted has been RVS joking and then small questions/comments on theory. He also called McMenno town in his 154 in a way that pings me as fake:

I am pretty sure Luna and Wing are town so are guilty and mcmenno
@Dunn - Are you still for lynching mcmenno?

the way this is written it feels like he's just naming names and threw on McMenno afterwards because the slot is confirmed town. Like, am I on the same tier of towniness to Alpaca as the IC, why am I separated from Luna/Wing? I can't figure out exactly how to put it into words, but it doesn't look like something town would write.

For someone espousing a townhunting + POE style, it makes sense to latch onto a few townreads and lynch outside of that.

I mean it makes sense, but why couldn't scum!Luna have faked it?

My main reason for townreading Luna include suggesting the possibility of her lynch, pro-activeness in developing two quick townreads as early as page one (Post 21, Post 22), those townreads being the same ones as mine, asking whether scum can kill themselves in thread as opposed to in the scum PT (Post 28), saying that Blitz game is making it harder for her to get townreads which reads like genuine concern (Post 53), not using that excuse to not have townreads (she's already got three, you, me, and Lane), townreading me despite my lynch on D1 being beneficial to her as it gets her into LYLO.

I've never played with Luna before but I just think these are things that competent scum can fake. Especially the early townreads on myself and Lane, we were both actively engaged and demonstrating evidence of thinking about the setup - I feel town would be more likely to be paranoid. The last point is probably your best one - I suppose you can make the same argument for town!Luna (assuming scum!Alpaca) as I just made for town!Umlaut.

[GuiltyLion]

It feels like everyone in this game has very similar reads, I don't know what to make of it

[GuiltyLion]

Well we need to get a lynch going, and since you guys want to lynch me at some point down the line might as well do it now.
VOTE: Luna Fox

So you have Dunn in your leftovers pile but you'd rather lynch yourself than him??

intent to hammer

I'll wait for Umlaut. Unfortunately this means Alpaca survives a long time, which may be why LF is doing this

[GuiltyLion]

okay, intent to hammer on Dunnstral since his lynch leads to Alpaca death quicker

will do this after I grab lunch

[GuiltyLion]

so, scum lost if this was simple tic-tac-toe rules

Town (O's) can force a win by lynching Lane or Luna Fox. Also Luna Fox is strictly better of the two because it forces scum kill onto Umlaut (unknown alignment) rather than McMenno (conftown).

the only thing we have to do is make sure we don't get endgamed. If the scumteam isn't Alpaca-javajoe (or GL-alpaca or GL-javajoe, but FMPOV I know those combinations aren't possible) then scum guaranteed a loss by killing Wingback, so I'm trying to wrap my head around this kill since it either means scum threw the game or Alpaca-java is the team.

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - Town (

X's

), not O's. Mixed that up

[GuiltyLion]

lane do you think scum just threw the game? Or do you think it's java-alpaca team?

[GuiltyLion]

wait we could also lynch Umlaut for autowin too, but again it would hypothetically get endgamed by java-alpaca team

[GuiltyLion]

I agree with the lynch Elmo today followed by java tomorrow plan. Of course it means nothing coming from me, but I know it's not a Guilty-Alpaca team so the only way we'd lose is a Lane-Alpaca team, and at the moment I'd be willing to bet the game on Lane being town.

[GuiltyLion]

I still think it's Elmo-Alpaca and if Elmo flips scum then we auto-win

[GuiltyLion]

then we lynch javajoe as he is most likely scum remaining. If you're opposed to that you better spend the day campaigning on who would be a better D3 lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

as long as Lane is town I think we win. and if Elmo flips scum then it's guaranteed win

[GuiltyLion]

McMenno decides who to lynch today

then whoever he decides, we have everyone else vote, in the order McMenno decides. I'm pretty sure that this is the best guard that we have against scum quickhammers.

[GuiltyLion]

also I'd like JJ to explain exactly why he thinks I'm more likely to be scum than Lane

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: alpaca

why did you make this vote

especially since I JUST laid out a plan to avoid scum quickhammers

[GuiltyLion]

I'm kinda pissed, while Cass is scum that was an extremely suboptimal lynch from a mathematics of LYLO perspective

java's case on me is terrible and I will respond in full tomorrow (assuming we are in twilight right now) but this lynch makes the next day far tougher than it needed to be

[GuiltyLion]

actually I'll just respond to javas points now:

Can't force a scumkill on them, but we can guarantee that we'll lynch them as follows:

alpaca

lynching Luna Fox would force a D3 lynch on Alpaca

umlaut

lynching atm would force a D3 lynch on Umlaut

or Dunnstral?

eh you got me there, but lynching Dunn on D2 would be safe (although it would give scum semi-free reign for D2 night kill)

We're not going to be able to force certain players to be scumkilled if we play in the center either. After the scum NK and our D2 lynch, you'll have the same problem that you're pointing out here. You're just delaying this problem in the setup by one day, after you lynch confirmed town.

This is the first time you mention alpaca being scum, before I think he had truly done anything scummy. I believe you are bussing your partner for town cred, painting a picture to town of me and alpaca as scum because you lay a plan in the future to let you, lane(who you are buddying), and me make it to the final three. Thus making me the obvious choice to lynch winning you the game.

I'm not calling alpaca scum in my post, I'm responding to Lane's question about how we could kill alpaca if we lynch Lane and scum kill center. There's a lot of projection/assumption in the rest of your quote here - now that I've pointed out that I'm not calling alpaca scum in 20, do you still feel like the rest of your point holds up?

[GuiltyLion]

My point is, let's say we go your plan, scum kill atm, we lynch java, alpaca turns up dead, now we're forced to lynch Dunnstral, scum is forced to kill lane, and everyone else is immune from NKs

You had just said that alpaca is scummy, but in this post you said he will turn up dead, insinuating that he is town.

Yes, I am insinuating alpaca is town in this post. First of all, I had not said that he was scummy, so that's a misrep. Second, this post is talking about the logic of the tic-tac-toe setup, it's making no reads on anyone's alignments. It's not that I think Alpaca is town, it's that I'm assuming he is town because he would be the scumkill to prevent the TTT victory. You should understand this, and I have a hard time believing that you don't.

[GuiltyLion]

Further soft bussing on alpaca. Earlier you had said he would turn up dead and you don't seem to have any independent argument for him being scum that I saw. Maybe you can point it out if I missed it?

Can you explain your scumread on Alapaca?

Alpaca is active lurking. He hasn't once offered a legitimate effort to sort people, instead what he has posted has been RVS joking and then small questions/comments on theory. He also called McMenno town in his 154 in a way that pings me as fake:

I am pretty sure Luna and Wing are town so are guilty and mcmenno
@Dunn - Are you still for lynching mcmenno?

the way this is written it feels like he's just naming names and threw on McMenno afterwards because the slot is confirmed town. Like, am I on the same tier of towniness to Alpaca as the IC, why am I separated from Luna/Wing? I can't figure out exactly how to put it into words, but it doesn't look like something town would write.

[GuiltyLion]

lane do you think scum just threw the game? Or do you think it's java-alpaca team?

Here is where you start pushing for me and alpaca being on the same team, which benefits you by bussing your partner for town cred and throwing shade at me for an easy mislynch.

I still think it's Elmo-Alpaca and if Elmo flips scum then we auto-win

But just a few posts later you "still" think it's an Elmo alpaca team? When did you ever say it was an Elmo alpaca team? And you just said a few posts ago it was me and alpaca.

Called it here:

I'm calling a Luna+Alpaca scumteam tbh. I'm drunk rn but I'll be back for actual play tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

It's annoying because if we lynch the scum correctly in Lane/Joe, then we are guaranteed to have conftown McMenno in LYLO

how can you like Joe's case?

[GuiltyLion]

Real reason is because I want Cass/alpaca dead, and I'm not going to risk the least contributing person in the game pick someone all by themselves. Why are you so mad about scum being lynched? How does mcmenno choosing who to lynch avoid a quick hammer anyways? All he has to do is pick the wrong person and boom. Quick hammer

also I explained this

he chooses, then he also chooses the order that people vote

It doesn't matter at this point but I'm more concerned with how you ignored what I said and recklessly voted anyway

[GuiltyLion]

like we could have all sorts of tells if McMenno had picked Alpaca/Cass, then had Java vote, then me/you, etc. It would have created content.

Instead we just flipped obvscum and didn't gain any kind of useful information between javajoe/you/me as for final scum, other than JJ's shitty case and your out of nowhere LYLO vote

[GuiltyLion]

If. If we lynched scum. Why would you want to take that risk? Why would you take any risk of missing when you HAVE to lynch scum.

And before you were going to just leave it up to mcmenno, now you're annoyed it wasn't Java or me. What if mcmenno picked Cass?

Oh that's right, you were banking on him being more concerned with staying alive and not picking alpaca.

BTW VOTE: cass just in case

I didn't ignore it. I just didn't think it was a good plan. The only person that plan benefits is scum guilty assuming mcmenno will vote for Joe first

Well when I originally posted that, Alpaca/Cass was not confirmed scum, remember

If McMenno picked Cass, we'd go with it, but I'd make the point still that it would have been strictly better for us to have conftown in LYLO. Our current chance of winning is 33% instead of 50%, because we lynched Cass.

How do you know what I was or wasn't banking on? Why are you assuming I'm scum now?

like we could have all sorts of tells if McMenno had picked Alpaca/Cass, then had Java vote, then me/you, etc. It would have created content.

Instead we just flipped obvscum and didn't gain any kind of useful information between javajoe/you/me as for final scum, other than JJ's shitty case and your out of nowhere LYLO vote

Well we know I'm not scum, because I would've waited for mcmenno to vote Javajoe, and then lynch for the win. Because that would've been easiest, and we know mcmenno was going to vote Joe.

We don't know you're not scum, like at all. We don't know who McMenno would have picked, because you went ahead and voted before discussion/consensus happened.

[GuiltyLion]

this is like a fucking scum-off between Lane and Javajoe and it's gonna give me a major headache tomorrow.

whichever you is town and accusing me of being scum should be ashamed

[GuiltyLion]

also Lane, explain why you said you liked Joe's case, given that I pointed out he's accusing me of things that aren't in my posts, or saying I didn't do things that I did in fact do

[GuiltyLion]

I would've picked not lane

but it's probably guilty yes... I'm really not sure currently

HMM MAYBE THAT'S WHY WE SHOULDN'T HAVE SPEEDLYNCHED

In Five Nights at Freddy's Mafia scum!lane immediately voted out the gate in LYLO, when I wasn't confirmed town, he treated me like I was in an effort to buddy me. His vote here is similar, it's a safe and easy bus to make if Cass is his partner, and it makes me worried.

Lane, you realize we have 1/3 chance of hitting scum tomorrow, yes?

[GuiltyLion]

which things do you agree with, and why

[GuiltyLion]

I didn't ignore it. I just didn't think it was a good plan. The only person that plan benefits is scum guilty assuming mcmenno will vote for Joe first

also no, you need to explain this. My plan literally benefits all town, it's completely neutral of all players alive since it relies on the only person we know having pure intentions

If it were a Java/GL team then you would have lost as soon as you voted.

[GuiltyLion]

also lane

if McMenno picked java and java flipped scum, would you be saying the exact same thing about me? Would my alignment still be scum?

If not, then you can't say that I'm scum for wanting McMenno to have the final say in the lynch. Like, your argument has to assume java is a mislynch in order to say that I'm scum, and

of course

that's true (assuming that you are town) given that we're the final 3 players alive. You have to explain why my action is scummy regardless of java's alignment, otherwise you are just assuming the conclusion and dressing it up like an argument.

[GuiltyLion]

No it doesn't. It only benefits scum. Your plan leaves a chance to hit town and give the scum the win. My way lynched obvious scum. It wasn't a Java GL team. There was basically no chance of that considering alpacas play and night 1 kill.

AND TOMORROW WE HAVE A CHANCE TO HIT TOWN AND GIVE SCUM THE WIN

AND YOU STRICTLY INCREASED THAT CHANCE

[GuiltyLion]

like now we have to make the EXACT SAME DECISION

only WITHOUT a confirmed town

[GuiltyLion]

My argument doesn't have to assume Java is a mislynch. My argument points out the fact that your plan gives an extremely high probability to hit town compared to just lynching alpaca. You wanted to take the chance to lose right here right now, instead of lynching one scum, and finishing tomorrow.

why is it an "extremely high probability to hit town" compared to the "extremely high probability to hit town" we have tomorrow? In fact you wanna talk probability, your way is CLEARLY worse, instead of 33% today and 50% tomorrow, you went with 33% today and 33% tomorrow.

If you assume alpaca is confscum then it's breakeven, 100% today and 33% tomorrow, vs 33% today and 100% tomorrow.

Stop spinning it like I was trying to "take a chance to lose". I was trying to generate as much content as possible and use the CONFTOWN PLAYER we have to reduce the risk as much as possible of autoloss.

[GuiltyLion]

In fact you wanna talk probability, your way is CLEARLY worse, instead of 33% today and 50% tomorrow, you went with 33% today and 33% tomorrow.

sorry this isn't exactly right, I assumed I was town in the first half and that we weren't lynching me.

From a completely neutral perspective it'd really be: 50% today and 50% tomorrow vs 50% today and 33% tomorrow. Yours is still worse

[GuiltyLion]

wait that's not right either, since I'm assuming we'd lynch between Lane/Java to keep McMenno alive, from neutral perspective it might not actually be 50%, it's only 50% from my perspective

STILL

[GuiltyLion]

you also haven't answered my question about what you liked about java's case

[GuiltyLion]

also

instead of arguing about this with me BEFORE the vote and BEFORE the flip

you chose to do it now, after Alpaca/Cass is confscum

why? You had no comment on my post before the flip

[GuiltyLion]

I'm MORE CONCERNED with you being scum and capitalizing on universal towncred and town!java having a wrong belief while also being mislynchable too

[GuiltyLion]

if java comes in here and starts gunning for you, you'll have to defend yourself against these charges

[GuiltyLion]

K so java is scum

[GuiltyLion]

Also use "[ post ] [/ post] " tags, with the post number between and no spaces

[GuiltyLion]

Hi sorry, I'm here, don't have much time for a morning post but I'll be back again throughout the next 2 days. I think Java is scum, Lane, your responses to me yesterday felt more like bullheaded town who was convinced in his point and the way java jumped on it to push against me is skeevy.

[GuiltyLion]

As to your rebuttals to my case on you, I have replies but do not have the time or energy to go over every one, that is something we can go over tomorrow. Suffice it to say you were right on some points and I was wrong on some, but there are still points I think hold true.

He doesn't say what these points are, just that he wants to stick by them.

I could see if you were only saying we shouldn't have quick hammered, because I can agree with that, but you are arguing that we should have lynched between me and lane. You are using math statistics to try and back up your argument instead of using logic and scum hunting ability. This is probably the scummiest thing you have done so far in my opinion.

Read this and tell me if this is more likely to come from town or scum.

I was primarily arguing that we shouldn't have quick hammered, with a side of "if it were me I would have lynched in java/lane to keep the conftown in LYLO". But my primary reason for posting was that I was annoyed the day was already going to be over so quickly, that conftown barely contributed, and that I felt we needed more day discussion. Java

knows

this, he even acknowledges it in the first part of this quote. Then he says I'm using "math statistics" as if that's inherently scummy, when it's not. Like why are math and statistics more likely to come from scum!GL than town!GL?

If I was scum there, I wouldn't have flipped out and started several pages of arguments just cause my partner got lynched. I would have been cool and bussed him and sheepy and blending in. That's why I was worried Lane might be pulling off an easy bus. I think town!java would have been more worried about it too, instead he's gunning for my mislynch to win.

[GuiltyLion]

What is normal?

I get you think I am scum and I am fine with that

, but unvote so we can get some discussions in today before someone quick hammers!

Read this and think about whether it's more likely to come from scum or town.

Town is NEVER fine with conftown thinking that they're scum in LYLO. If java were town here he wouldn't be so conciliatory. He'd be indignant and mad, the way that townies get when they're about to be the game-losing mislynch.

[GuiltyLion]

sigh

java's case was so blatantly full of crap

[GuiltyLion]

Lane I mean this as a genuine improving-at-this-game question, what could I have done to defend myself better? Why did you think I was scum?

[GuiltyLion]

also if we had lynched java yesterday then I guarantee Cass would have been the lynch today, so I was totally right about Cass being the wrong lynch yesterday, just saying

[GuiltyLion]

i was definitely getting paranoid about Lane in twilight of that last day but then he started towntelling hard again

i wish i could have done the same

java idk how you got out of that McMenno vote but you deserve props for that