Micro 639: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game Over]

[lane0168]

Yes I think lynching the middle is best play. The middle is most powerful. Getting the middle gives us more leeway and options when trying to lynch for scum starting day 2 and takes away options for scum. It will be easier to force scum to shoot who we want to shoot. Easier to force scum to possibly shoot themselves.

If we have the middle, we can pretty much lynch anyone and scum have to kill to block us by shooting the third square. If we lynch in a corner, we lose that advantage entirely.

VOTE: memento

[lane0168]

If we lynch the middle, we lynch a confirmed town and allow scum to kill their preference of the 4 corners

If we lynch our preference of the 4 corners, we might hit scum, and we force scum to kill the IC which removes WIFOM NK manipulation

lynching the middle is clearly worse

No. We lynch middle. Say they kill me. Then we lynch whoever we want and scum is forced to kill the third square in the row. We have the advantage of controlling the scum kill by lynching the middle. That's entirely more beneficial than having a confirmed Townie who will be dead tomorrow anyways. Chances are we won't hit scum lynching elsewhere. This is best play. Who cares about innocent child when you have full control over the scum kill?

[lane0168]

If I'm lynched and scum kill center, how would you force a kill on alpaca umlaut or Dunnstral?

[lane0168]

No there is no delay. There will be no problem. You want alpaca dead, you lynch Java and scum is forced to block us. After that we can still go wherever we want. We don't have to lynch who we want dead. We can lynch the person across from them if it's the smarter tic tac toe. Scum still be forced to follow our 3 in a row the whole game.

Its an innocent child that will be killed night 1. We get exactly the same amount of information out of them whether we lynch them or they get night killed. And we get control of the scum kill. We get control if the tic tac toe board as well.

[lane0168]

If we wanted Java killed, we'd just lynch alpaca. They both end up dead and we don't give up any tic tac toe position.

[lane0168]

o [] []
X x o
[] [] []

Is what we have in that case. How is that mandated by scum? Reread what I'm saying

O [] []
[] x []
[] [] []

That's what we have going into day 2. We want lower middle dead, we lynch upper middle. We want upper middle dead, we lynch upper middle. Either way we end up with this

O x []
[] x []
[] o []

Day 3. We want upper right dead, at lynch lower left. We want lower left dead we lynch lower left.

We want middle left dead we lynch middle left, we want middle right dead, we lynch middle left. The only time we give it up is if we want to lynch the opposite corner of their first kill

[lane0168]

How do you feel about atm guilty alpaca and Luna? They will all die next.

If we go the corner route, we need to consider the scumminess of the adjacent sides since we can most easily force their deaths. I'm against lynching me with guilty being on my adjacent side. If you want me dead lynch Luna.

My preferred corner lynch would be Dunnstral, obviously.

Lynching corners our best case scenario will be

X [] []
O o []
X x o--- at this point we're in lylo. So if we can pick the corner with the three least likely to be scum, we should be able to still win pretty easily with lynching a corner, as long as that corner doesn't have both scum. Which I'm pretty sure is my corner. I think guilty is town. Null on javajoe

[lane0168]

O x []
X x o
[] o [] - - - one scenario for killing middle first. If we think 3 corners are Towniest we can go this route.

O [] []
X x o
[] [] X another scenario with scum having next kill. Less control this way. Lylo the next day.

O [] o
X x o
X [] [] - also another choice.

Ok so basically if we can pick a corner with only one scum in it at most and kill the rest, killing the middle isn't necessary

UNVOTE:

[lane0168]

Maybe. I didn't catch it

[lane0168]

VOTE: dunnstral

Lynching both adjacent sides is best option. But we don't necessarily want to lynch the person we scum read most, first

[lane0168]

Guilty I've got a town read on you. Did you fool me before? Oh I just remembered I almost fooled you in that multiball. Anyways, I think if we lynch the opposite corner from me and those two sides it should be a win...

[lane0168]

Everyone is aware this is a

BLITZ

right?

[lane0168]

My strategy is keep upper right corner alive. If scum don't kill IC then we'll win from tic tac toe. If they do everyone in bottom left dies.

[lane0168]

Actually, VOTE: atm

This is better for me subjectively than Luna.

You're scum reading guilty?

[lane0168]

You just gotta stay on top of it is the trick. Check in often. Don't worry so much about rereading. No time for falling behind

[lane0168]

fire, would it be a huge pain in the ass to put the board in your vote counts?

[lane0168]

Guilty I've got a town read on you. Did you fool me before? Oh I just remembered I almost fooled you in that multiball. Anyways, I think if we lynch the opposite corner from me and those two sides it should be a win...

Haha Lane I think I've been town every time we have played together

also I am thinking you are town here
UNVOTE:

While writing that I had this guy feeling you fooled me and was feeling very hesitant to town read you. But then I realized it was the other way around lol

[lane0168]

fire, in a Lylo situation, if town lynch town for 3 in a row, who wins with 1 scum 1 town alive?

Pedit- me either, but that's OK cause we can lynch him in lylo

[lane0168]

Which corner do you like mcmenno?

[lane0168]

Oh not sure

[lane0168]

You are scum reading me and guilty Java?

[lane0168]

A vote on atm ensures our death

[lane0168]

Also I'm more concerned about alpaca checking in and then nothing than atm not being here at all

[lane0168]

I guess it doesn't per se. But if we're trying to play this with any sort of strategy, adjacent sides to our first lynch die and youll be left with Java, umlaut and Luna as your final three.

And since as of now I'm town reading guilty the most, I don't want him dying

[lane0168]

Atm still dies if we lynch dunn

[lane0168]

If we lynch atm, then scum are forced to kill McMenno

How does this happen? Are you just assuming they will go for that kill because they can still kind of kill everyone on the board can't they.

Yes that's the assumption. If they don't, town will win via tic tac toe. I will make sure of that

[lane0168]

Basically. But also because I townread guilty. If I scum read Javajoe id push for a lynch on luna

[lane0168]

Luckily all 4 of the people you want dead will die my way

[lane0168]

As long as both guilty and Java aren't scum, we're good

[lane0168]

As far as youre concerned, as long as both scum aren't found in me guilty and Java, you're good too

[lane0168]

Who's a confirmed town slot? You're the only one. Dunn is not confirmed town slot and youre not looking at the big picture

[lane0168]

Nvmd, you're probably talking to Dunn. I'm dumb

[lane0168]

Ninja'd bitch jk

[lane0168]

Originally I thought that might be the best play. I don't think we need to do that anymore no

[lane0168]

Hurry up fire. It's a blitz you know

[lane0168]

Speaking of blitz. 1/3 through the day and 5 pages? Unacceptable. Lurkers gotta lurk I guess

[lane0168]

Reiterate FoS on Java, that intent is pure survivalism on his part

He is in almost no danger of dying. How is that survivalist?

[lane0168]

Umm, why the fuck would you put your second x on the side?

Pedit. Ok

[lane0168]

You've got second most posts by far. What are you talking about and why are you feeling guilty?

[lane0168]

Holy shit, now you're trying to actually give away the game to scum via tic tac toe. Brilliant

[lane0168]

2 or 4 for luna, 1 or 3 for Dunn.

[lane0168]

Wing, why #1 over #2? Town read on Java?

[lane0168]

Nvmd, I was looking on wrong table

[lane0168]

I've got a harder scum read on alpaca than Java. I almost think if we lynched Dunn then alpaca we'd win. Dunn is way too survivalist. If Dunn doesn't happen though I think I can trust wing and guilty to play the lynches right

[lane0168]

Well we need to get a lynch going, and since you guys want to lynch me at some point down the line might as well do it now.
VOTE: Luna Fox

You just brought Dunn from l-2 and you l-3 to Dunn l-3 and you l-2, to get a lynch going? Alright, I don't understand it but ok. Guess it works for me.

VOTE: luna

L-1

[lane0168]

If they kill me, lynch Dunn. Ill hold all my other what if's for tomorrow

[lane0168]

I don't like luna lynch first though. Leaves alpaca alive for too long who's just been coasting. Do not like one bit

[lane0168]

Well we need to get a lynch going, and since you guys want to lynch me at some point down the line might as well do it now.
VOTE: Luna Fox

So you have Dunn in your leftovers pile but you'd rather lynch yourself than him??

intent to hammer

I'll wait for Umlaut. Unfortunately this means Alpaca survives a long time, which may be why LF is doing this

Good point. We lynch Dunn, they both die.

[lane0168]

I'm not saying switch to Dunn there. I'm just saying that could be what she's trying to avoid

[lane0168]

You thought I sheeped your lynch the middle joke and made up a bunch of reasons because I wanted to go with the flow? Your joke post wasn't A "flow" to lynching towards the middle. If there was flow towards lynching the middle, I dug the ditch for the flow. Then i deemed it unnecessary when I figured out you can get essentially the same people dead without lynching the middle, even with scum having more options if we lynch corner. What would be the middle ground you'd have liked to see? Suggesting lynch the sides?

Pedit. It's more important to not have 2 scum in the final 4 because if that happens we've already lost. I originally worked it out to figure out final 3, but you did the more important to find the final 4

[lane0168]

VOTE: dunn

[lane0168]

If Javajoe and alpaca are scum, they're not forced to kill themselves. They kill town and win. Same with umlaut and alpaca, Java and alpaca

[lane0168]

You won't be

[lane0168]

Well, maybe you will be. I guess we'll see

[lane0168]

Shouldn't be. Alpaca day 2 lynch, you're day 3. I believe is the way we'll go

[lane0168]

Ok. Can we get a hammer. 5 hours and no reason to take anymore time.

[lane0168]

Nice scum claim with the quick hammer being "ok with this"

[lane0168]

[lane0168]

No hard feelings Dunn. It's just business you know?

[lane0168]

VOTE: luna

[lane0168]

VOTE: elmo

Yeah that's what I'm thinking

[lane0168]

We lynch elmo, scum shoot umlaut. Then we lynch alpaca. Unless there's 2 scum in me mcmenno guilty and Java, we'll make it to Lylo with probably guilty Java and me.

@guilty, I'm thinking scum is Java and alpaca, and they killed wing to keep alpaca alive.

[lane0168]

It doesn't matter if they have free night kill. Alpaca will be dead. Who the scum are trying to keep alive. I don't care if they have mcmenno, guilty, Java, and me to choose from. That's the scenario I first came up with and I still like it

[lane0168]

Actually, lynching Luna and then Joe could work for me. Assuming one of them is scum (and I do), Mafia is forced to kill Lane leaving McMenno around for lylo. Then we lynch the scummier of GL or Alpaca (hint: it's Alpaca).

Nvmd. This works for me.

[lane0168]

Actually... Idk. I think I'd rather lynch alpaca

[lane0168]

Obviously you're going to be less impressed than I am with a plan where scum is forced to kill you over McMenno, because (given that you're town) you know you're town whereas I'm only pretty sure. Are you sure you'd feel the same way about it if you were standing in another slot? Because that's not really a reason you can sell to someone else.

That said, I could do the Elmo-Alpaca plan, so I'm content.

VOTE: Elmo

The only reason I'd like to say lynch alpaca is he's most likely scum. And the outside, like way way outside chance he's scum with guilty, I'd like alpaca dead. However, lynching Joe leaves confirmed town alive for lylo. So idk. That is my objective thoughts. Or subjective. Whichever I mean lol.

[lane0168]

But what about lane- Java? My whole thing is lynching alpaca to make damn sure there's not 2 scum in the final 4

[lane0168]

Which Im pretty sure lynching Java does. But I'm more sure lynching alpaca does it too

[lane0168]

This is a funny wagon. I could make the bad reference of Scum normally don't replace out but I feel its going to be on deaf ears

You're just a place holder unfortunately. Sorry. Thanks for replacing in though lol.

[lane0168]

I'll be dead tonight anyway

If we're killing Elmo then I'll be dead tonight (or else we win tic-tac-toe by lynching me tomorrow).

This is a funny wagon. I could make the bad reference of Scum normally don't replace out but I feel its going to be on deaf ears

Elmo, do you understand the setup? Thinking someone is scum is not the only reason to lynch them. In particular I'm pretty confident the scumteam is Alpaca/Java. This is a tactical choice.

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[lane0168]

This is a funny wagon. I could make the bad reference of Scum normally don't replace out but I feel its going to be on deaf ears

Who do you think is scum though?

[lane0168]

Elmo, if it makes you feel any better, I won't assume it's a scum claim if you self vote lol

[lane0168]

Alpaca is most likely scum considering wingback kill

[lane0168]

After the tic tac toe game is basically over with elmo's lynch. Lynching you won't give us a ttt win. Lynching alpaca won't keep us from one side we don't play it all the way out. We stop at the lylo lynch.

Pedit. Good point. I'll also look at the associations

[lane0168]

Here's a thought. Would the mod put the scum team in positions that would make them less likely to be lynched? If so umlaut makes sense with alpaca because they are both sides, and not across from each other so no chance of forcing them to kill the other. Now if what umlaut flips town tonight that would mean that GL would have to be scum based on that logic, which I really can't see. It could be lane, but he would be a corner and a prime lynch candidate. But then again if umlaut does flip town then at least one of GL or Lane has to be scum from my POV. If this is so, then wow, well done guys, you guys deserve the win with a game well played like this.

Pretty sure it's random.

And if one of us are scum and win (obviously considering both points of view) then we'll only have ourselves to blame for losing as town. Considering we basically town blocked each other lol

[lane0168]

If we're not going to get a single post in 12 hours, can we just get a hammer?

[lane0168]

Honestly. 16 hours since anyone has posted in a blitz. Firebringer, can I get a temp double vote?

VOTE: elmo[/elmo]

Don't worry guys, you just give me your proxy votes. I'll take it from there

[lane0168]

A sign of life! I thought maybe it was the rapture, and everyone here made it but me and firebringer

[lane0168]

as long as Lane is town I think we win. and if Elmo flips scum then it's guaranteed win

For my own sanity I had to look through our history. I found no reason to be so paranoid. And so I will suppress it. Shove it deep inside, until the day that you fool me

[lane0168]

VOTE: alpaca

[lane0168]

VOTE: alpaca

why did you make this vote

especially since I JUST laid out a plan to avoid scum quickhammers

Just a reaction test. Alpaca is replaced. But since we know Cass is scum, let's figure out who partner is. You? Or Joe. I gotta be honest, I'm liking Joe's case

[lane0168]

Nevermind. I actually wanted to vote that slot, so it should be considered a hammer. I just said that it was a reaction test because for a second I thought we should've been lynching me, thinking we'd win via ttt, but then again remembered we wouldn't get that far
. Scum just would kill town. Double brain fart

[lane0168]

VOTE: alpaca

why did you make this vote

especially since I JUST laid out a plan to avoid scum quickhammers

Real reason is because I want Cass/alpaca dead, and I'm not going to risk the least contributing person in the game pick someone all by themselves. Why are you so mad about scum being lynched? How does mcmenno choosing who to lynch avoid a quick hammer anyways? All he has to do is pick the wrong person and boom. Quick hammer

[lane0168]

I'm kinda pissed, while Cass is scum that was an extremely suboptimal lynch from a mathematics of LYLO perspective

java's case on me is terrible and I will respond in full tomorrow (assuming we are in twilight right now) but this lynch makes the next day far tougher than it needed to be

Why are you so concerned with mathematics of it? There's a game going on with 6 posts from alpaca and an obvious night kill to keep him alive. We lynch scum. We're not doing math. Seems like you were just hoping mcmenno would choose Javajoe

[lane0168]

If. If we lynched scum. Why would you want to take that risk? Why would you take any risk of missing when you HAVE to lynch scum.

And before you were going to just leave it up to mcmenno, now you're annoyed it wasn't Java or me. What if mcmenno picked Cass?

Oh that's right, you were banking on him being more concerned with staying alive and not picking alpaca.

BTW VOTE: cass just in case

I didn't ignore it. I just didn't think it was a good plan. The only person that plan benefits is scum guilty assuming mcmenno will vote for Joe first

[lane0168]

like we could have all sorts of tells if McMenno had picked Alpaca/Cass, then had Java vote, then me/you, etc. It would have created content.

Instead we just flipped obvscum and didn't gain any kind of useful information between javajoe/you/me as for final scum, other than JJ's shitty case and your out of nowhere LYLO vote

Well we know I'm not scum, because I would've waited for mcmenno to vote Javajoe, and then lynch for the win. Because that would've been easiest, and we know mcmenno was going to vote Joe.

[lane0168]

Mcmenno voted Java twice before you posted while interacting with Java. I think it's safe to assume he was going to pick Java, and because of that, scum lane would be happy to go with the plan. Also because of that, town lane was not happy to go with the plan. And now guilty is mad because we lynched scum, and didn't take a 1/3 chance of hitting scum.

[lane0168]

Because he also said some things that you did do. And I agree with them.

[lane0168]

I didn't ignore it. I just didn't think it was a good plan. The only person that plan benefits is scum guilty assuming mcmenno will vote for Joe first

also no, you need to explain this. My plan literally benefits all town, it's completely neutral of all players alive since it relies on the only person we know having pure intentions

If it were a Java/GL team then you would have lost as soon as you voted.

No it doesn't. It only benefits scum. Your plan leaves a chance to hit town and give the scum the win. My way lynched obvious scum. It wasn't a Java GL team. There was basically no chance of that considering alpacas play and night 1 kill.

[lane0168]

also lane

if McMenno picked java and java flipped scum, would you be saying the exact same thing about me? Would my alignment still be scum?

If not, then you can't say that I'm scum for wanting McMenno to have the final say in the lynch. Like, your argument has to assume java is a mislynch in order to say that I'm scum, and

of course

that's true (assuming that you are town) given that we're the final 3 players alive. You have to explain why my action is scummy regardless of java's alignment, otherwise you are just assuming the conclusion and dressing it up like an argument.

No if Java was scum, then you'd be town.

My argument doesn't have to assume Java is a mislynch. My argument points out the fact that your plan gives an extremely high probability to hit town compared to just lynching alpaca. You wanted to take the chance to lose right here right now, instead of lynching one scum, and finishing tomorrow.

[lane0168]

Yeah WE have to make the decision. Not one single person that apparently because they're confirmed town you think they are somehow better at finding scum. Who had already wanted to lynch Java joe which could've ended the game.

[lane0168]

like now we have to make the EXACT SAME DECISION

only WITHOUT a confirmed town

Confirmed town doesn't mean shit of he was wrong

[lane0168]

You should be more concerned with telling me why Joe is scum. Rather than what I liked about his case on you.

Pedit. My vote was what I thought about your plan. You're the one arguing that voting scum was the wrong play

[lane0168]

So... Mcmenno votes Java twice. You come in and say let's let mcmenno decide. And I vote my partner just to make the game last another day? Is what you're considering.

I'm universally townread. I don't need more town cred. And I don't need to delay the game to get it when it was pretty obvious to me mcmenno was leaning towards voting Joe.

[lane0168]

Alright guilty, who is scum?

[lane0168]

Guilty?

[lane0168]

Mcmenno scared me. I saw they were last post and thought something went terribly wrong lol

[lane0168]

Why haven't either of you voted? That's so weird to me.

VOTE: guilty

[lane0168]

UNVOTE:

[lane0168]

VOTE: guilty honestly I could go either way and I fucking hate lylo I just realized

[lane0168]

I'd rather be town fighting for my life

[lane0168]

sigh

java's case was so blatantly full of crap

sorry. I should've known. I never should've gone against what I knew from the start. I failed you

[lane0168]

Lane I mean this as a genuine improving-at-this-game question, what could I have done to defend myself better? Why did you think I was scum?

Nothing. It was literally my own paranoia. I unvoted you cause I knew I shouldn't go against my read I had on you from the beginning. But I alone fucked my own head. My fault

[lane0168]

Glad I got called out for:

A. wanting mcmenno dead day 1 (which would have instantly won us the game on day 2)

B. wanting to lynch javajoe and "messing up the tic-tac-toe" (Which you guys messed it up anyway somwhow

If you guys had stuck to the order and lynched javajoe instead of that (frankly dumb) vote on cass (enen if they were mafia) town would have won the game

Not if guilty was scum. Easy to say knowing the scum team