Mini Normal 1829 - Game Over

[MichelSableheart]

Vote: Blitzkrieg

A vote is far more likely to generate discussion if you actually give a reasoning that can be discussed. The lack of reasoning with your vote could be the result of the fact that you don't actually want to generate discussion.

Transcend, do you feel gambits are a good way to start discussion? If so, why?

[MichelSableheart]

He was the first to do nothing but place a naked vote. Transcend mentioned his rolepm, you switched.

He could have discussed your vote switch, he could have discussed Transcend's remark about the vote being based on role pm. He could have made up a reason based on past experiences with players. He could have made up a reason, period. Anything that can be discussed is better then no discussion at all.

[MichelSableheart]

Its RVS. No one besides me (since I'm leet!) is really going to have a reason to vote anyone and its odd that you expect anyone to have a reason even if its a joke reason. I mean obviously Trancend's "reason" is lulz and not even you believe it so I'm not sure why you think Blitz or anyone should discuss that other than it being slightly conscious.

Just 'cause Blitz was the first "naked voter" I don't really see why we/you should focus on it.

You feel I should have focused on someone/something else, then?

@Transcend: why is your #6 a better reason to vote, given that you were lying about your rolepm?

[MichelSableheart]

@Transcend: what you're probably seeing is that I tried to find something in the thread that might be indicative of mafia. As it was still Arbitrary Voting Stage, there wasn't much to go on, so of course my reasoning is going to look forced.

[MichelSableheart]

Actually giving a reason why someone could be scum during AVS is a great way to get the game started, but it draws attention like crazy, particularly from weaker players who automatically seem to assume off-meta behaviour = scum. Not entirely sure what to think of Transcend here. I feel his reactions to me are more thoughtless then flat out scummy.

Blitzkrieg, if you feel selective replying is worth pointing out, then why are you conveniently ignoring the wagon on you and the discussion it sparked?

[MichelSableheart]

Nero, where are you getting the weird idea that i think joke reasons are acceptable? If you look at my suggestions for what Blitz could have discussed in post #16, you'll see that what I suggest is game related, not a joke. A joke reason is only marginally better then no reason at all, and far worse then an actual game related reason. I believe that the main goal of the early game is to get discussion started, so that we have interactions on which we can build reads. The AVS originally developed with the idea that the arbitrary votes would give players something to respond to. However, it's now been used so long by players who have no clue why it's there that it's become essentially useless in that regard. So I will make sure players have plenty of reason to respond to my AVS votes, and I will criticize those who don't give us anything to respond to.

@Maria: There is no such thing as a random voting stage. There are early arbitrary votes to get discussion started, but once discussion has started there's no reason to vote randomly. Your vote isn't currently accomplishing anything and could be far more useful elsewhere.

Also:

Where the F did I say "I want to stay in RVS stage!" I'm saying we're still in it

Michael's first posts have been a load of bs and feels like

he's trying to get something rolling on town (ironic cause I'm doing the same thing)

Jarjar made one post and it wasn't a joking post it was a chainsaw lynch post that was god awful

VOTE: MariaR

Explain the bolded.

Vote: MariaR

[MichelSableheart]

I don't want you to explain your reasoning. I want you to explain why you are trying to get a bandwagon started on someone you know is town.

[MichelSableheart]

Are you seriously going to be as uncooperative and annoying as you were in our previous game?

[MichelSableheart]

Oof... Can you people cut down on the spamposting a little please? It's ok to think before you post. It's not ok to completely drown out everyone else.

and I will criticize those who don't give us anything to respond to.

except you only criticized blitz, which was selective.

Fair enough. Though attacking everyone would have led to a theory discussion rather then a discussion on who was scum, so I had to vote somewhat arbitrary.

So Maria, let me summarize: you were considering pressuring your mason partner in the hope that he would give off towntells under pressure? In a game where the main way for mafia to win is to get town mislynched? And you were surprised that you got bandwagoned when you implicitly mentioned this in thread? You couldn't understand why such a remark would be considered a huge scumslip?

Sigh. And this is supposed to be our mason pairing.

Unvote

@Gerry: any particular reasons to disbelief the maria/transcend claim, other than that they're two players who could try such a stunt as scum?

I have a townread on Blitzkrieg for finding that original post by Maria.
The behaviour of Thor and IAI during the Maria bandwagon also gave me pro-town vibes.

I'll have to look deeper in the kraska wagon, but that won't happen tonight.

[MichelSableheart]

I've looked at Kraska, and must admit there is some merit in that wagon. Kraska, could you explain where your initial townread on Maria came from? It went against the feeling of all other players at the time, so what did you see that they didn't?

Thor, what makes you say that Elyse's vote was the most opportunistic on the wagon? If I had to point out an opportunistic vote, I would look at Karnos. The reason he gave for joining the wagon was Maria's refusal to explain. I have a hard time thinking of a reason why scum would be more likely to refuse to explain then town, which makes me feel he might just have been looking for an excuse to join the wagon. Elyse's "I don't think Maria would get that flustered as town" seems far more natural to me.

Gerry, what did you accomplish with that gambit?

Note to all EM players: gambiting is a terrible idea on a site that focusses on finding scum through dayplay. If you want to be able to find the lying scum through day discussion, you have to be able to rely on what your fellow town players are saying. Lying as town makes all reads unreliable, while giving scum the perfect cover to hide behind. That's why Lynch All Lyars is a thing here. Benefit of lying for town is non-existent, benefit for scum is far too great to allow liars to live.

Vote: Transcend

Town Transcend willing to lie for unknown maria seems far less likely then scum Transcend willing to lie to solidify her townread of him.

[MichelSableheart]

Nero does this change your reads at all?

maybe...probably. I was coming around to the idea of a kranka/shadow/kanos team. Would Trancend, as scum, put that much heat on himself? I actully think I rather lynch someone else today. Gerry can policy vig that.

@Nero: I would argue that Transcend, as scum, would try the mason fakeclaim whenever he felt he could get away with it. If it works he has made himself essentially unlynchable for the first couple of days, while also buddying up to Maria. There's huge payoff there. The heat his actions generate seem more detrimental to town then to scum as well. From his perspective, if he is town who is trying to defend a townread, he risks two mislynches instead of just one if the plan backfires. Whereas if he's scum fakeclaiming with Maria town, his lynch could easily be followed by a Maria mislynch push from his buddies afterwards.

The mason fakeclaim is something he would always do as scum, and not nearly as much as town. As such, it is far scummier then anything else that happened in the thread thus far. No reason to leave the situation to other players, do what you can do: vote Transcend.

@Maria: If you're interested in the thoughts regarding game balance on mafiascum, you may want to read this or this thread in mafia discussion. General consensus is that we're making games that aren't nearly as townsided as they should be.

[MichelSableheart]

Not really all that sure, to be honest. Generally speaking I find it easier to identify who is town than who is scum.

Next to Transcend, Maria is by far my topmost suspect. There is still her scumslip in post #78, and I would have hoped town maria would have realized how dangerous Transcends mason claim was.

After that, my scumreads are a lot weaker.

I'm somewhat suspicious of kraska, as I don't understand how a pro-town player could get an early townread on Maria.

Both shadowstep and Karnos have contributed virtually nothing useful, and could easily be lurking scum.

Though I don't understand Gerry's dayvig gambit, I don't really see how it would benefit him as scum, so I have him more as neutral.

The rest of the players seem to be actively scumhunting to me. I'm particularly townreading blitzkrieg, Thor and you, with more doubts about JJD, Elyse and Nero.

---
Transcend and Maria seem ballsy enough to try fakeclaiming masons as a scumteam, and their play is erratic enough that a lynch of the other is not automatic if one of them gets lynched.

[MichelSableheart]

@kraska: fakeclaiming is a huge deal, because it is never good for town. It outs powerroles, makes reliable setup speculation completely impossible, and causes town to act on bad information. Each of those is a recipe of mislynches. On the other hand, fakeclaiming is extremely good for scum: it causes confusion, and in some cases allows scum a plausible excuse for their behaviour. Fakeclaiming is something scum does 100% of the time, because they cannot afford to claim truthfully. So you have an action that scum will do 100% of the time, and town shouldn't do ever. That makes fakeclaiming one of the biggest scumtells there is.

I'm particularly townreading blitzkrieg, Thor and you, with more doubts about JJD, Elyse and Nero.

I would easily and happily argue that JarJar and Nero are both blatantly better townreads than Blitz (or IAI for that matter).
Why are you conflicted on those two?

Conflicted is the wrong word. It's more that I don't have as strong a townread on them as I have on Blitz and IAI.

post #80 by blitz was a very good find, that I don't think she would have made if she's scum with maria, and that she's unlikely to make if she's scum with transcend. Maria for obvious reasons, and the implosion of Transcend in response to pressure on Maria was somewhat foreseeable in my opinion.

IAI feels town because he has been keeping an open mind about me. He gives me the feeling that he's genuinely trying to understand my reasoning, without immediately trusting everything I say. That's honest scumhunting that I feel is very difficult to fake.

With Nero and JarJar, they have been playing well, participating, scumhunting, but I don't have anything in particular that I can point at to say "that's why I think they're town". So I'm slightly wary that the good vibes I'm getting from them might be the result of them agreeing with me rather than anything particularly townie they're doing. So I have them as neutral, leaning town.

That isn't a scumslip and I already said why I thought you were trying to get a bw going on town and I was doing the same thing so he can town tell so PLEASE tell me how that's a scumslip again

Simply put, bandwagoning a townread so he can townslip makes no sense whatsoever for town. You would be actively making others more suspicious of your townread, making his lynch more likely. And there's no guarantee whatsoever that the townslip you're hoping for will happen. On the other hand, scum wants to wagon someone they know is town. So that's an action scum is extremely likely to do, and town is extremely unlikely to do. But that has been explained to you before.

[MichelSableheart]

Ok Nero, this is getting ridiculous. Posts #14 and #16 were made during AVS, with the intention to get discussion started. If I had posted a vote for Blitzkrieg with an obvious joke reason there, you wouldn't have batted an eye at it. My vote did far more to get the game started then a joke reason ever could. So why would I be more likely to make that vote as scum then as town?

You want to argue that the reasoning wasn't great? Sure, go ahead, I would fully agree with that. But do take into account when the vote was made.

[MichelSableheart]

Posts #14 and #16 were made during AVS, with the intention to get discussion started.

So your defense here is that you were just making up a reason vote and get the game started and you weren't really scumreading Blitz?

Almost. I think that voting without giving reasoning is better for scum then for town, as it does nothing to get discussion started. This made Blitz slightly more likely to be scum, but the difference was marginal. If the other players had a 3 in 12 chance (0.25) of being scum, I felt her chance of being scum was something like 0.2505. Marginally higher, not strong at all, but if I have to vote during AVS to get discussion started anyway, I might as well vote for something that might be indicative of scum.

As for why I didn't say "oh hey I wanted to start the game"? Doing so would have shut down the discussion we had going. Besides, I felt that my focus on getting discussion started in #53 and #87 made it obvious.

Elyse was either drunk or crumbed not sure which

I see very good reasons why scum Transcend who has a good chance of being lynched would make this post. But I see no reason why a pro-town player would want to point out crumbs by others.

[MichelSableheart]

@Gerry: The reason why you should vote Transcend is pretty simple: He was the one who made the fakeclaim that he and Maria were masons.

As town, that's a risky proposition that he's not all that likely to do. From that perspective, it risks two mislynches instead of one if things go wrong. Also, if he would change his mind on Maria later for some reason, it would be difficult to convince others without causing his own mislynch.

As scum, on the other hand, it's a play he's likely to make. He can expect to survive a couple of lynches based on that claim, while either protecting a buddy or building towncred with her. Best case scenario, it might even cause other players to disbelieve an investigative claim later.

Given that he's taken an action that he's likely to do as scum, and not as likely to do as town, Transcend is likely scum and should be the lynch of the day.

[MichelSableheart]

@Blitzkrieg, Thor: Feel free to join me on the Transcend wagon. If only one out of Transcend/Maria is scum, it's more likely to be Transcend (who started the fakeclaim) then Maria (who only went along with it).

[MichelSableheart]

Yawn...

Ever heard the story of the boy who cried wolf?

[MichelSableheart]

I would be more likely to join the Kraska or Elyse wagon than to hop on a Transcend wagon at this stage - your case has loose merit at best, and overlooks that despite it being bad play people do that sort of gak all the time.

That's my point though. If he's town, he wouldn't do this all the time. He wouldn't do this if he felt his townread on maria wasn't strong enough. He wouldn't do it if he felt he had other ways to safe her. He wouldn't do it if he felt Maria was not worth saving. He wouldn't do it if his own role was too important to risk over a fakeclaim.

If he's scum, on the other hand, the only reason I can think of for him not to pull that gambit is if he felt Maria wouldn't go along with it. But given Maria's feelings on him at the time, the chance of that is neglectable.

[MichelSableheart]

But you're never going to find actions in thread that town would never take. If town never takes them, scum can't afford to take them either or they would get lynched in a heartbeat.

If you know nothing about a player, he has a certain chance to be scum.

If he subsequently takes an action that he's very likely to take if he's scum, and not likely to take if he's town, it becomes far more likely that he's scum, even if there are situations where he would take that action as town.

[MichelSableheart]

Let's assume Transcend is scum why wouldn't he let my lynch go through as scum I think he's smart enough to think of the backfire the mason thing has and I may not have town read him for it doesn't it seem risky

If you're both scum, he would try to safe a teammate.

If you're town and he's scum, he would be getting a free pass the first couple of days (see the response to the mason claim). If the claim eventually falls through and people start lynching the claimed masons, his team will still be able to get the mislynch on you out of the deal.

[MichelSableheart]

But you're never going to find actions in thread that town would never take. If town never takes them, scum can't afford to take them either or they would get lynched in a heartbeat.

If you know nothing about a player, he has a certain chance to be scum.

If he subsequently takes an action that he's very likely to take if he's scum, and not likely to take if he's town, it becomes far more likely that he's scum, even if there are situations where he would take that action as town.

That is a gross oversimplification of my rebuttal, and also of the very concept of the game.
The point is that actions have rough percentages, some are more likely to be done as scum, or as town, even though both alignments do them.
You are presenting that there is zero chance town do what he did.
I am showing evidence that town explicitly do it - and am suggesting they do it in fairly even numbers.
You're then debating emptiness with me, I don't get it.

No, I'm presenting that there is a relatively low chance that he does it as town, and a very high chance that he does it as scum.

That you can find an example where a town player fakeclaimed mason doesn't really counter that. Given your evidence, I have a 50% chance of lynching scum if I lynch someone fakeclaiming mason, as opposed to (generally) a 3 in 13 chance if I lynch completely randomly. Those are awesome odds!

[MichelSableheart]

No, I'm presenting that there is a relatively low chance that he does it as town, and a very high chance that he does it as scum.

You have failed to show this in any way.
What you *have* argued is that town shouldn't do what he did, a point I will happily agree with, but that is not then translatable into a low chance that he or other town would do that action.

That you can find an example where a town player fakeclaimed mason doesn't really counter that. Given your evidence, I have a 50% chance of lynching scum if I lynch someone fakeclaiming mason, as opposed to (generally) a 3 in 13 chance if I lynch completely randomly. Those are awesome odds!

I am willing to wager that outside of L-1 situations town fakeclaims more than scum do, even allowing for the larger number of players that draw town roles and allowing that alignment is not a fakeclaim.

You are also being a bit fast and loose with percentages there, as one could easily argue that any given player has a 50% chance to flip scum, as well as a 23% chance in this setup. I am not interested in debating percentages when neither you nor I have anything remotely close to valid info to draw those numbers from.

Given how bad the mason fakeclaim is for town, I believe there was a significant chance for Town Transcend to actually realize that it was a bad play and not do it. I do believe that there is a significant correlation between bad play for town and unlikely to be made by town.

You seriously believe that town fakeclaims more than scum do? That would mean an enormous meta shift in the past couple of years. Town fakeclaims simply didn't happen, except perhaps by total newbies who didn't know any better. Whereas things like cop claim gambits happened with some regularity by scum. If you're right, then play quality has deteriorated far more then I realized. Are things really that bleak?

And why isn't Lynch All Liars used more to deal with it? I mean, a fakeclaim is so obviously anti-town that it would make any player far more likely scum. Yet for some reason, you're willing to give the Trans slot a free pass here. Just how strong is your townread on the transcend slot, actually? Would you be willing to deadline lynch there, for example?

As for being loose with percentages, guilty as charged, though I do feel they give a reasonable approximation of the actual odds.

---
welcome giga, and thank you for replacing in. I know how annoying the bloat in this thread can be. There have been a couple of instances where I've been away for a couple of hours, only to come back to several pages of mostly useless content. Must be far worse for you.

The main thing you should be aware of, as you can see from the earlier part of my post, is that Transcend claimed to be masons with Elyse, then later retracted that claim. I hope you'll understand that I'll be pushing for your lynch.

[MichelSableheart]

Mod: your last vote count is missing JarJarDrinks

@Gerry: The reason why you should vote Transcend is pretty simple: He was the one who made the fakeclaim that he and Maria were masons.

As town, that's a risky proposition that he's not all that likely to do.

Transcend fake claims every game as town or mafia lol

Sorry, I simply don't believe that. I'm willing to accept that he fakeclaims as town some of the time, perhaps even a lot of the time, but there must be situations where he, as town, realizes fakeclaiming in that particular situation is a bad idea. Perhaps he feels that particular read isn't strong enough to fakeclaim for it. Perhaps he feels that something other then fakeclaiming works better. There will be situations where he's trueclaiming and therefore won't retract his claim.

Yet because players like you won't lynch him over it, he knows he can get away with fakeclaiming as scum. Which means he will indeed fakeclaim as scum to his hearts content, whenever he sees the opportunity.

All this means that even from him, a fakeclaim is more likely to come from scum then it is from town. So why are you letting him get away with his scum fakeclaims?

So I'm on page 20 right now and I have to ask people's opinions on something: The mason claim was pretty obviously a load of bs-ass bullshit and people discussed why. Maria wouldn't have acted the way she did when her wagon built up because she'd have the claim to save her. But then why are people hesitating to vote for Transcend/Maria at that point? Is this more of a site meta thing where the claim is just assumed to be true? This might just be hindsight bias from knowing the claim is obviously fake but I feel like there should be a vote in this post.

Town fakeclaiming is something that in my experience (4 years out of date, admittedly) never happened. So when two players claimed mason together, I felt it was either scum+scum or mason+mason. Given that, accidentally suspecting one of our strongest powerroles felt far more likely then two scum risking everything on an early day 1 gambit. If I had been more aware of how accepted town fakeclaims appearantly are in the current meta, I would have looked into it far more, because then all of a sudden one scum+one fakeclaiming town becomes a possibility.

I've already explained why Gerry is scum, I don't believe in making the thread toxic and asking people to vote Gerry in every post I make.

Why did you think explaining why Gerry is scum would be enough to get him lynched today over the more popular wagons? Because there's absolutely no chance of that lynch happening if you're not trying to convince others at all. I have to agree with giga's assessment that your vote was on a vanity wagon there.

Also, where the ... did that karnos vote come from? You didn't mention him at all before maria suggested him. On the other hand, you had shown quite a bit of suspicion on the gigaslot. Why is karnos a better lynch then giga is?

UNVOTE:

gig is towntelling a little bit. Not enough to totally negate my scumread of the slot but enough for an unvote. Also feel like a scum replacement doesn't make that claim there.

Why the unvote if you were still scumreading the gigaslot? If you felt there was a better wagon around I could understand, but why is your vote better spend voting noone rather then voting a scumread?

I think that voting without giving reasoning is better for scum then for town

town do naked votes all the time but yea, I generally think that not giving reasons for your votes is pro-scum.

This made Blitz slightly more likely to be scum, but the difference was marginal. If the other players had a 3 in 12 chance (0.25) of being scum, I felt her chance of being scum was something like 0.2505.

This part is junk though. Like there was no way that Blitz's naked vote was scummier than any other naked vote.

vote:Michel

It does mean she was scummier then the players who hadn't voted at the time, though. And scummier then you, who by switching gave players something to question you about. And scummier then transcend, who with his rolepm post gave people something to respond to. You could even argue she was scummier then shadow, who at least said something alongside his vote. So basically, I arbitrarily chose to vote blitzkrieg over IAI during Arbitrary Voting Stage.

On one hand, Michel just coming back this makes a little sense but at the same time why would he not take an effort to look at the current state of MS and rigidly play to late 2000 standards?

I simply do not have the time to read games I'm not in. Just keeping up with one game takes up all the time I have available for Mafiascum. I read mafia discussion a bit, but the "how much have things shifted" thread didn't mention anything about an increase in town fakeclaims. But even if town fakeclaims have become more prevalent, I see no reason to consider a fakeclaim as anything other then a huge scumtell. As I mentioned in my reply to Gerry above, there's just no way that town fakeclaims more then scum.

---
The way that giga combed through Elyse's post, finding fault with most of them, feels like giga starts out wanting to suspect Elyse and then goes looking for reasons, rather then giga suspecting Elyse and explaining her reasons. The way Elyse dealt with the mason claim, and the fact that she may be lining up the giga and maria lynches are valid reasons to suspect her. I would expect town giga to focus on those, rather then criticize almost every post in detail.

[MichelSableheart]

Haven't got much time now, full post hopefully to follow later today.

I really don't want to lynch outside the fake mason claim. Nothing anyone else has done comes close in scummyness.

So with the momentum for a giga wagon completely gone:

Unvote

Vote: MariaR

[MichelSableheart]

Grr, so no time to complete my read. Thanks. Will have to post what I have then.

The way that giga combed through Elyse's post, finding fault with most of them, feels like giga starts out wanting to suspect Elyse and then goes looking for reasons, rather then giga suspecting Elyse and explaining her reasons. The way Elyse dealt with the mason claim, and the fact that she may be lining up the giga and maria lynches are valid reasons to suspect her. I would expect town giga to focus on those, rather then criticize almost every post in detail.

Why does explaining why I think an ISO shows a scum-thought process imply I have an agenda? Elyse asked me why I suspected her since I was asking for other people's reads on her, and I felt that if I showed how I came to the conclusion that she was my strongest scumread then people would understand. I've never played with you before so I don't know if this is a misrep, but this feels like confirmation bias.

If you genuinely suspected Elyse, it would be because of the way she dealt with the mason claim, and the fact that she may be lining up lynches. So when answering the question why you found elyse scummy, you would focus on those points. You would quote 416 and 462, and explain why those post contradict with her vote at the time.

Going through her entire ISO and discussing each post in detail is not the result when you want to explain why you feel suspicious of her. It's the result of you thinking "People want to know why I suspect this player, so let's go through their ISO and see what I can find".

And that's more likely to come from scum, who has to make up reasons for their suspicions, then from town, who only has to explain their reasons.

[MichelSableheart]

Also, where the ... did that karnos vote come from? You didn't mention him at all before maria suggested him. On the other hand, you had shown quite a bit of suspicion on the gigaslot. Why is karnos a better lynch then giga is?

I want more pressure on the slot and we have enough time to lynch Giga.

This is no explanation whatsoever for why karnos is scummy. Worse, "pressure" implies that you weren't actually looking for a lynch 2 days before deadline. Are you intentionally trying to avoid committing to reads? You're giving us very little to work with.

[MichelSableheart]

So basically, I arbitrarily chose to vote blitzkrieg over IAI during Arbitrary Voting Stage.

yeah you did. Both Shadow and IAI naked voted but you tried to justify voting Blitz b/c she was "scummier" which I think is total BS and not a town thing to do.

Now you're putting words in my mouth that were never there. The only mention of Blitz being "scummier" then Shadow/IAI came from you, in Post #15. I understood that post as a question why I was voting Blitz over Shadow/IAI, but I never felt that Blitz was actually scummier then the other two. Yet this complete misrepresentation is now being parotted by Kraska.

Both

shadowstep

and Karnos have contributed virtually nothing useful, and

could easily be lurking scum

but he's voting Maria?!?

shadow/michel/blitz scum team calling it now

You know, if you had actually taken the time to read the full post you selectively quoted from, you wouldn't have to waste my time with ridiculous statements. Here, let me quote it in full. I'll even go so far to handily bold the relevant part.

Not really all that sure, to be honest. Generally speaking I find it easier to identify who is town than who is scum.

Next to Transcend, Maria is by far my topmost suspect.

There is still her scumslip in post #78, and I would have hoped town maria would have realized how dangerous Transcends mason claim was.

After that, my scumreads are a lot weaker.

I'm somewhat suspicious of kraska, as I don't understand how a pro-town player could get an early townread on Maria.

Both shadowstep and Karnos have contributed virtually nothing useful, and could easily be lurking scum.

Though I don't understand Gerry's dayvig gambit, I don't really see how it would benefit him as scum, so I have him more as neutral.

The rest of the players seem to be actively scumhunting to me. I'm particularly townreading blitzkrieg, Thor and you, with more doubts about JJD, Elyse and Nero.

---

Transcend and Maria seem ballsy enough to try fakeclaiming masons as a scumteam, and their play is erratic enough that a lynch of the other is not automatic if one of them gets lynched.

Seriously Nero, stop misrepresenting me.

[MichelSableheart]

The Elyse wagon was poor. Gerry's and Maria's votes lacked reasoning. Nero votes Elyse as a compromise after defending her most of the day. Then after getting a claim Kraska immediately unvotes, followed by IAI and the wagon completely disperses. Like, seriously? Nero, Kraska, was that just wagoning the hope of getting a claim from her?

[MichelSableheart]

Continuing my reread, I'll post more if something comes up

[MichelSableheart]

Still happy to see a Maria lynch though, for the record.

[MichelSableheart]

Nero, here's something for you to do at night:

Read the second page of Mini 533. I'm town in that game, and having exactly the discussion about AVS there as I'm having with you here.

[MichelSableheart]

@thor: I spent a large part of yesterday trying to convince you that transcend/giga is scum, but didn't manage to convince you. Yet I still haven't got a clear idea where your townread on the slot is coming from. Could you try to convince me, please?

@Michel your top three town reads please.

I only have two strong townreads at the moment.

The first is Thor, who I can only see as scum if giga is (one of) his scumpartner(s). If giga is town, there was no reason for thor scum to block that lynch and risk a compromise wagon on one of his teammates.

The other is JJD. I've seen him make some solid remarks, bringing up good points, and found myself if not agreeing, then at least understanding his points.

My other townreads are a lot weaker then that. If I'm forced to pick a third though, I would probably say Elyse, because the poor wagon on her at the end of day 1 felt scum driven.

stop trying to delay Shadows claim. :/

Why are you so incredibly pushy for claims? As town, there's no particular need to know. It's mafia that want to see claims outed, as it helps them eliminate the dangerous powerroles.

With a that lurking they are doing you'll be waiting a long time. :/

Fuck off, go and check what lurking means. I live in a different timezone.

So? It's the quality of your posts that's atrocious. You're giving us virtually no reads, and no explanation for the reads you're giving us. You seem to intentionally make it difficult for anyone to read you based on your posts. You're not contributing anything despite posting regularly. That's the definition of lurking to me.

FoS: Shadow_step

Don't want to put him in hammerrange at the moment with players like Karnos around, but I do support this wagon.

[MichelSableheart]

Sorry team, had a very busy couple of days, and I'm having trouble thinking straight. I'll probably go to bed in a moment, expect a more thorough post tomorrow morning. I'll have to think if I believe that claim, among other things.

In the meantime, I'm not happy with the blitz wagon. It's being pushed by three of the four players I have most doubt about. With giga, nero and shadow all supporting it, karnos is my only scumread who hasn't mentioned being in favour of this wagon.

[MichelSableheart]

When I look at Blitzkrieg, I see a player who focussed almost exclusively on Maria and Trans/Giga. That's not surprising, given how scummy that fakeclaim is, but it makes it difficult to know her thoughts on other players. That being said, I don't think she did anything super scummy. Yet JarJar, Giga, Nero all joined that wagon while giving virtually no reasoning, and shadow's willingness to hammer also comes after he didn't discuss blitz at all. This is a poor wagon.

I'm particularly disliking Nero's play here. Both with the Elyse wagon day 1, and the shadow and blitz wagons today, he seemed more interested in getting them to claim then in actually getting a lynch. It's in large part due to him that there are two powerroles out in the open now. That's not scumhunting, that's powerrole hunting, and more likely to come from scum then from town. Add the way he was smearing me day 1, and I would be happy to see him lynched.

I still prefer a Giga lynch though. Given how many players in this game were willing to give him a free pass for fakeclaiming, the mason claim is a relatively low risk way for him to potentially coast through the first couple of days, and build some towncred with maria in the process.

Vote: Giga

Shadows claim is conveniently safe for scum. It gives us little information, particularly when he's using it to confirm claims.

Karnos hammer yesterday was terrible, and it still looks like he's getting away with not adding much.

Unless I hear some very good arguments for someone else, I want to lynch one of these four.

[MichelSableheart]

Michel and Blitz (and anyone scumreading me for that matter), what scumteam with me in it kills IaI? Especially because Blitz believes that my ""partners"" refuse to bus me, I don't really understand the benefit of picking a nightkill that makes it easier for me to get lynched. Is there someone else in a theoretical team with me that's worth more than me, or a more nuanced reason to kill IaI that I'm not getting?

Well, who would be the alternative for the scum nightkill? Was there anyone who was both attacking you and generally considered town? As far as I can see, your scumteam would have to give up significant mislynch potential if they wanted to take out one of your attackers.

I'm particularly disliking Nero's play here. Both with the Elyse wagon day 1, and the shadow and blitz wagons today, he seemed more interested in getting them to claim then in actually getting a lynch.

Sometimes I wonder if you actually understand what you post or if you are just randomly saying things. Like there was a day left on day 1. Its customary to have the person claim before they get lynched. Getting Elyse to claim 24 hours ahead of deadline gave us the room to lynch her or not and decide what we wanted to do. Are you upset you are not getting the mislynch you wanted?

I wanted Shadow lynched. I wanted Blitz lynched. Saying that I only wanted their claims is an unbased opinion. The kicker here, is that he doesn't believe Shadows claim but thinks I'm scummy for outting him, scum talking out of both sides of thier mouth?

Frankly, the only reason why you would want someone to claim when they're at L-1, is if you would lynch them unless they have a very strong powerrole.

Given the speed at which the Elyse wagon disappeared after a VT claim, I would argue that the willingness to lynch wasn't there in the first place, and any townie reaction would have dispersed the wagon. Which means there was no need whatsoever for the claim you were pressing.

Something similar happened with the Shadow claim. Vanilla cop gives town virtually no information whatsoever. It allows goons to hide behind a VT claim, and it risks outing powerroles. It's probably the weakest of the investigative roles. Yet again, after that claim, everyone unvotes.

Yet when there actually is a strong powerrole claimed in Blitz' doctor, the wagon doesn't budge.

Given all that, what's the point for town for asking for those claims? If the claim has no relation to whether the player gets lynched or not, then there's no point asking for claims in the first place. Better to simply keep them secret and not leak information to scum.

[...]

<Translated by Thor>
Blitz focusing so heavily on the Mason claims is scummy (please ignore that Micheal did the exact same thing)
But Blitz isn't scummy (then why explain how she's scummy?)

I really dislike Nero's play and will discuss how it is scummy for a paragraph.

That said, I want to lynch Giga off the mason logic still.
</translation>

I think you're misreading what I'm saying about Blitz. I don't think it's scummy that she's exclusively focussing on the fakeclaimed masons. It does make it more difficult to know her thoughts on other players, but it's not more likely to come from scum then from town.

So why mention it? Simple. I wanted to see if I could figure out what the players on the wagon were seeing. In that context, it's important to note that she doesn't have many interactions that I can base my opinion on. It's also important to note that the interactions that are there are understandable from my point of view. Both of which I do in my post.

I'm particularly disliking Nero's play here. Both with the Elyse wagon day 1, and the shadow and blitz wagons today, he seemed more interested in getting them to claim then in actually getting a lynch. It's in large part due to him that there are two powerroles out in the open now. That's not scumhunting, that's powerrole hunting, and more likely to come from scum then from town. Add the way he was smearing me day 1, and I would be happy to see him lynched.

What a coincidence...you start calling Nero scum just as the "Nero is scum" sentiment starts flying about the place

You do realize I was already mentioning these points at the end of yesterday? That other players are starting to express suspicions of Nero when I finally make the time to write down my thoughts on my biggest suspects is indeed coincidental.

Similarly, note that I was actually trying to defend blitz, even if it appearantly wasn't perceived that way. Any of the other four players mentioned in my post are better lynches then her, with a preference of a Giga lynch over Nero over shadow/karnos, with noone else on the table unless I hear a very convincing case.

I'm particularly disliking Nero's play here. Both with the Elyse wagon day 1, and the shadow and blitz wagons today, he seemed more interested in getting them to claim then in actually getting a lynch. It's in large part due to him that there are two powerroles out in the open now. That's not scumhunting, that's powerrole hunting, and more likely to come from scum then from town. Add the way he was smearing me day 1, and I would be happy to see him lynched.

What a coincidence...you start calling Nero scum just as the "Nero is scum" sentiment starts flying about the place

TBF, I just think the guy is derpy. Him being scum would help explain why he found Blitz' naked vote scummier than the other naked votes; distancing. But I mean there's so much reasonable doubt in Shadow, Gerry, Karnos.

Again, I did not find Blitz naked voted scummier. That terminology was introduced by you in post #15. I arbitrarily chose Blitz because she was the first to vote without encouraging discussion in some way.

preview edit: have not yet read Giga's latest post.

[MichelSableheart]

Do you think you have a good number of interactions?

I think so, yeah. Though I have been focussing mostly on the mason fakeclaim, I feel I haven't made a secret of my thoughts on other players. My series of posts at the end of day 1, my first post at day 2, and post #1642 should give you a reasonable idea of my feelings on players other then giga/maria.

@Shadow: any particular reason why you voted Karnos over Giga? The Karnos wagon won't become viable without a serious attempt to convince others to join it. Just voting there without that attempt won't do much.

@Thor: something similar goes for you. If things don't change, you'll be forced to choose between Blitz and Giga, both of whom you seem unwilling to lynch. Why aren't you trying to convince others to join you?

[MichelSableheart]

With regards to blitz not claiming her target: it's probably not that important. IAI seems like a scumkill to me, which means that her target will mainly give us info on her, and not on other players in the game. And I don't think there's anyone who is going to change his/her mind wrt the claim based on who she targetted. So it's probably better to keep the scum guessing if she doesn't get lynched tonight.

[MichelSableheart]

@Elyse: There were two actions Blitz made that were far more likely to come from twon then from scum, IMO:

Her post #80, which shows an attention for scumslips that scum is less likely to have.

And her push against the Transcend slot around #930. The reasoning she gives in #935 after Thor pushes her is far too solid to have been made up on the spot in a couple of minutes. Given how quickly she answered there, it's far more likely that she had already given the question some thought, which again town is more likely to do.

Don't you think you're tunnelvisioning what is in essence uncommon play?

[MichelSableheart]

Just a reminder Sable that you town read Gerryscum for "towntelling"

I know I've been wrong before, and I know I may be wrong here. That's why I'm trying to make my reasoning public: to allow the possibility of a well reasoned argument to convince me I'm wrong. This doesn't seem to be the game for that, though Thor seems happy to just passively sit on his vote, and everyone else seems to be bandwagoning while giving virtually no reasoning, while completely drowning the reasoning that might be there in lots of fluff posts. It feels like I'm playing a completely different game from everyone else.

@Nero, JarJar: any particular reason why scum blitz would be more likely to make that reasoning? Because bad reasoning is bad reasoning regardless of alignement. Only when scum is actually more likely to make a certain play then town does it become a scumtell.

@Thor: there's no need to lynch a claimed doc. If you join the Giga wagon, there should be enough there to secure a lynch. With a very strong argument from you there might still be time to pull of a karnos wagon, even, but that requires you convincing players on both wagons that Karnos actually is the lynch for today. Put in that effort or join one of the major wagons.

@Elyse: you really have nothing to say about my 1767?

[MichelSableheart]

@Karnos: no need to rush. Please give Thor a chance to weigh in first.

[MichelSableheart]

@Karnos: no need to rush. Please give Thor a chance to weigh in first.

I find it strange that you call me scum in one post and then make a request like this in the next.

1. You seem to prefer a giga lynch over a blitz lynch. So do I. Pointing out that there is no need to compromise before Thor has weighted in helps us both achieve that.
   
2. If will try to prevent you from cutting the day short like you did yesterday.
   
3. There are four players I suspect of being scum. It's unlikely that there are actually four scum in the game, so I'm probably wrong on at least one player. Since I don't know on who, I try to work with them all.

Michel, don't you see the way that Shadow is tiptoeing around voting either Giga or Titus? He doesn't want to hammer his buddy and he needs Thor to vote Giga before he can flash hammer. I mean you look at that and just go "geez that makes sense as not buddy play"

Shadows play wrt the wagons doesn't make much sense if he's scumbuddies with blitz, to be honest. In that scenario it would make far more sense for him to simply push the giga lynch and try to convince Thor to follow him. By voting an unviable wagon, he's making the alternative to a blitz lynch less likely, and therefore a blitz lynch more likely. The play actually makes more sense for scum shadow/town blitz. In that scenario, he can go "see, I didn't want the blitz mislynch" when he actually didn't do much to stop it.

[MichelSableheart]

By voting an unviable wagon, he's making the alternative to a blitz lynch less likely, and therefore a blitz lynch more likely.

no? Like Titus is sitting at L-1 and Giga is sitting at L-2. If Thor gets on and votes Giga you bet your ass he's going to vote Giga. Even if holds out for a no lynch (a ton of scum motivation in that) I fail to see how that makes Titus town.

That requires completely depending on Thor, though. By not voting giga, he doesn't invite players currently voting blitz to compromise on a giga lynch, and he encourages players on the giga wagon to compromise on a blitz lynch. See Karnos, for example.

[MichelSableheart]

The blitz flip makes me think I was probably wrong on Giga. From what I remember, blitz was tunneling on Giga, without really looking for alternatives. As such, she was a strong cause of the development of a Giga wagon. Given that blitz was the lynch day 2, I would expect scum blitz to try to get an alternative wagon on a non-scum player, which makes Giga town.

That means I'll have to rethink the entire game though. I'll probably have to reread everything (ooh boy) looking for connections to blitz. Previously my trans/giga read colored the way I percieved everything being said. Due to the magic prereleases this weekend, I'm a bit strapped for time, so that might be a while.

I agree that Gerry is likely a vig kill. From the point of view of an SK, scumGerry would have been a good lynch. That reminds me of blitz' doc claim. She launched some discussion yesterday on there being a vig, and one of her accusers responded that this likely meant scum had a mafia doc. I'll have to reread the details, but I'm interesting in hearing what the thoughts on this are. Because if we have a vig who tried to kill night 1, it may be a good idea for him to claim his night 1 target, as it was likely stopped by a scum doc. A scum roleblocker probably wouldn't have led blitz to the vig speculation, and a town doc in addition to the two investigative roles that have flipped would lead to follow the cop scenarios so is unlikely.

Karnos, please don't self vote. Unless it's part of a game breaking strategy, your lynch is contrary to you achieving your wincondition. It's poor play as either alignement.

[MichelSableheart]

Thinking about it some more, with a tracker, gunsmith, vig in the game, mafia doc would make an awful lot of sense.

[MichelSableheart]

@Elyse: given Blitz' doc claim, plsu the combination of tracker, gunsmith, likely vig, a scum doc seems far more likely then a scum roleblocker to me.

I'm fine with a massclaim today.

I'll hopefully have some time to reread tomorrow.

[MichelSableheart]

Michel, since you're reevaluating the game, what are your thoughts on Thor's massclaim?

Thor's massclaim is perfectly fine. If we have a vig who shot someone still alive night 1, we want the vig to claim that because his target is almost certainly scum. There were a number of vanilla claims out in the open already. So just locking scum into their claims should help quite a bit.

Let's see... Shadow vanilla cop, Elyse VT, Karnos VT, Thor VT, Kraska didn't contradict shadows vanilla investigation on her, so:

I'm Vanilla Town.

Popcorn to Nero.

Reread to follow when I've spent time on it.

[MichelSableheart]

Vote: Shadow_step

With Nero claiming to have shot shadow night 1, I see four possibilities:

• Nero is lying (either about being vig or about shooting shadow)
  
• some other townie prevented the kill and is lying about it
  
• scum blocked nero from killing
  
• scum protected shadow

Given the discussion we had about the fake mason claims, and the fact that this massclaim was done at least partially with the purpose of finding out if and who the vig targeted night 1, I think we can safely dismiss the first two. If town is lying and we mislynch because of it, we deserve the loss.

So either scum blocked nero, or shadow was protected. Out of those two, a protect on shadow is far more likely. A mafia doc goes perfectly into a setup with a tracker (who tracks the protections), gunsmith (doc does not have a gun and therefore functions as a godfather) and vig (mafia doc stops the vig kills). Compared to that, some form of roleblocker would be a very blunt instrument.

And if shadow indeed was protected, he's (almost) certainly mafia.

I've read the first 20 pages during my reread, continuing reading now.

[MichelSableheart]

I've made it up to page 30 now, but bedtime is approaching rapidly. Tomorrow starts early again. For now, a summary of my observations. I'll go more in depth when I've reached the end of day 1 and have taken some time to think about what I read.

Maria, trans and nero were dominating the discussion, which makes it difficult to get a good grip on the thoughts of other players. In particular, there weren't really any interesting interactions with blitzkrieg, except that blitz was pushing against the masons.

I'm not all that interested in Nero or trans. Nero is an uncountered vig and therefore almost certainly town, and giga being heavily attacked by blitz as the alternative to the blitz lynch makes her likely town as well.

By page 30, shadow had done absolutely nothing. He hadn't commented on maria's early post, he hadn't commented on the mason claim or its implications, the only thing he had discussed was Gerry's fake dayvig. I see no reason whatsoever in his posts up to that point to consider him town.

Karnos also didn't offer much, but he was happy wagoning along on both the maria and the trans wagons. Add in the "trans is town, but let's lynch him anyway" of #678 and I could easily see him as the third scum.

Up to page 30, Thor has been consistently asking good questions of Maria, while keeping an eye on everyone else as well. It's rare that I can't see where his line of questioning is coming from. He's probably experienced enough to fake this as scum, but overall my impression of him is good.

Kraska mainly stood out for defending maria when it was unpopular. From the first 30 pages it isn't clear where those feelings come from, though.

Elyse's first Maria vote might have been overexplaining a bit, but her vote on transcend in #628 looked genuine.

Overall, based on just the first 30 pages, shadow and karnos are the obvious lynches.

I'll hope to reach the end of day 1 tomorrow at work.

[MichelSableheart]

[...]

"almost certainly" wtf is this shit.
Why aren't you keeping an opening mind? Why the fuck can't there be a RB or a JK who blocked NC.
Stupid Nero has made it so easy for scum to jump on my wagon, it's ridiculous.

Let's see...

First of all, a mafia doc is much more likely then a mafia roleblocker because of setup speculation. A mafia doc interacts differently with a vig (block the kill), a tracker (can be tracked) and the gunsmith (investigate as innocent), making it an interesting role in the setup. By contrast, a roleblocker is far less interesting, as it interacts with all town roles in the same way. I believe that chilledtea therefore would be more likely to give the mafia team a doc then a roleblocker.

Secondly, blitz speculated that there was a vig during day 2, when we hadn't seen a vig kill yet. She is far more likely to guess there's a vig when scum has a doctor (whose main job is to prevent kills) then a roleblocker (which stops a wide variety of roles).

Thirdly, a mafia doc is more likely to prevent a vig kill then a mafia roleblocker. The mafia doc is going to target the scummiest member of the scumteam, and the vig is going to target scummy players in general. The chance of both roles targetting the same player seems to me higher then the chance that a roleblocker would specifically target the vig. Given that a kill was prevented night 1, this is therefore more likely to be the result of a scum doc.

Okay let's just consider this for a second.
IF nero shot me and I was protected by scum doc, it means I am scum.

Consider this

6) A mafia member can only carry out his faction kill, or his individual ability, but not both.

If the scum doc protected me N1, he would protect me N2 as well.
Which means I did the kill, but only I didn't! I investigated Kraska.

^this is why i'm hesitating, Elyse

he could have fakeclaimed vanilla cop, but what's with the Kraska investigation? A lucky guess??

I'm with Kraska's post #2172 on this one. Scum vanilla cop makes quite a bit of sense, as we have a rather strong town. And I strongly disagree with his reasoning that a scum doc would have to protect him night 2. I can easily see the scumteam choosing to gamble that there either isn't a vig, or that the vig won't target the same player 2 nights in a row. Especially since that gamble would give them an additional rolecop result, and therefore help them find the powerroles.

@Giga: I'm only up to page 40 in my reread, so I find it difficult to answer your question of who is scum if Shadow is town. Goon/Goon/Roleblocker doesn't seem completely out of the question to me, as the roleblocker is a pretty powerful role. I'm reasonably happy to rule out you as scum in that scenario though, as I really don't think blitz would have pushed hard for your lynch as an alternative to hers in the situation where you were both scum. I'm also pretty happy to consider Nero a vig. Currently, I would probably look at a Karnos/Elyse pairing in that situation, but my opinions on Kraska and Thor can still easily change.

[MichelSableheart]

If a roleblocker blocked nero, the scumteam wouldn't have any indication that that block did anything. They wouldn't have reason to believe there is a vig in that scenario. So their powerrolereads might simply have changed, causing them to block someone other then nero night 2.

But if it's your belief that a scum roleblocker would have targeted nero night 2, isn't that more evidence for there being a mafia doc rather then a mafia roleblocker, making shadow scum?

[MichelSableheart]

Out of those scenario's, two seem plausible to me.

Investigating Kraska N1, noone N2 is a possibility. Elyse had already claimed VT during day 1, so she was a safe fake investigation target. Or shadow could be confirming his partner's (Elyse's) fakeclaim.

The scenario where shadow investigates and partner shoots seems more likely to me, though. A vig whose kill got blocked is not that likely to shoot at the same target and risk getting blocked again. Besides, since there was no vig kill night 1, scum could have thought that there was no vig in the game. Scum doc could just be there to give the tracker more results, after all.

[MichelSableheart]

I've completed my day 1 reread of day 1, but it's bedtime for me now. I'll hopefully find the time to gather my thoughts on day 1 tomorrow. I'll definately continue reading day 2 tomorrow, as well.

[MichelSableheart]

If I look at the rest of day 1 (starting from page 30), there are a couple of observations I want to make. I'm not going to comment on Nero, as he is very likely town given the Gerry kill.

First of all, there is the transcend situation. He was rightfully replaced, but posts like blitz' #915, #922 or #942 look like she may have been goading him. Given that, her arguing for a transcend lynch rather then replacement in #930 could easily be an attempt to create an emotional mislynch. Which makes Giga more likely town.

Thor continued keeping up his consistent good play. His townreads in #1326 are all either confirmed town or highly likely town. His consistent defense of Giga looks good now that a giga/thor scumpairing has become effectively impossible. I'm still inclined to read him as town.

Kraska used day 1 to mildly push against blitz and elyse, while defending most other players. She wasn't all that involved though; the blitz wagon never gained much traction, and the Elyse wagon was mainly pushed by other players. It feels like she might have been trying to get townpoints for defending pro-town players without actually doing all that much to actually protect them. No strong suspicions, but I could see her as scum. Interesting to note is her #1376, which set up the shadow (role)cop claim perfectly.

Other then me, Elyse was probably the strongest advocate against the fakeclaimed masons, arguing strongly for giga scum. She was willing to compromise, starting a shadow wagon in #1186, then joining a Gerry wagon in #1218. Between that vote and the end of day 1, she didn't post anymore, so we didn't get to hear her thoughts on the Maria wagon. I find it difficult to draw strong conclusions on Elyse based on day 1, and could see her going either way.

Karnos continued his poor performance during the rest of day 1, finding the wrong reasons to argue for the trans lynch in #860, providing a virtually empty read list in #1345, showing intent to hammer without giving reasoning in #1379, and then ignoring the various requests not to hammer. Then in #1401, he already seemed to be preparing for a maria town flip, arguing that the giga scum/maria town scenario was most likely out of the four combinations (despite just having hammered maria).

As for shadow, I guess he made posts during day 1, but he was essentially non-existent. He felt that explaining why Gerry was scum one time was good enough to park his vote on an unmoving wagon, then switched to karnos despite not commenting at all on him before that. He would have been a good lurker policy lynch day 1.

[MichelSableheart]

I don't think I have been criticizing your blitz and elyse pushes. I was defending blitz and elyse before the blitz flip, but I was more concerned with the behaviour of giga, nero and shadow on the blitz wagon. From what I can remember, I was mostly ignoring you, except for questioning your townread on maria day 1. Which kind of supports what I was saying here: you weren't a big factor in the discussion.

Also, a major event happened that forced me to reread and rethink my reads. So I do that, and as a result, my reads change. That shouldn't be surprising.

[MichelSableheart]

Ok, first things first:

@Mod: Due to a holiday, I will be on vacation with very limited to no access from friday october 7th till the evening of tuesday october 11th (european time)

@Everyone else: that means I might not be able to post before deadline once my vacation starts.

Sorry for taking so long to post this. I find it difficult to motivate me to do work in a game when there is a risk I'll be nightkilled, so I kind of put of the last part of my reread until a couple of hours ago. It's now past 1.30 am, but I've completed my reread and want to post my thoughts today.

Nero is obvtown, thor's replacement almost certainly protected him after he's proven vig.

During day 2, blitz was pushing Giga hard, even when it became clear that blitz would be the other wagon of that day. I just don't see a scumteam of giga/blitz making that play. Bussing is fine if it gives towncred, but bussing to the extend that it makes a townlynch essentially impossible? Extremely unlikely. I'm considering giga town.

kraska's consistent blitz push during day 2, as well as her defense of giga, speaks strongly in her favour. Another positive point in her favour is giga's belief that she's not playing to her scum meta. There are two negative points: she was defending shadow throughout day 2, and her flipflopping between Karnos and Shadow during day 3 might have been testing if a karnos mislynch was possible that day. The points in favour of her being town seen stronger at the moment, but I'm still not fully convinced. Nero, what are your thoughts on Kraska?

Karnos has been completely tunnelvisioned on giga throughout day 2 and 3. He was fighting the wagons of shadow day 2 (post #1500), and the blitz wagon throughout day 2. Only at the very end of the day was he willing to reluctantly switch to blitz. Throughout day 3, it's the same story: he's pushing giga, and only switches to shadow when there's effectively a guilty. Basically, the only thing that speaks in his favour is the way shadow attacked him at the beginning of day 3 (no, he didn't seem a viable lynch day 2 to me).

Elyse is worse, though. Her position on the blitz wagon is exactly where I expect bussing scum to be: joining the wagon after it already gained substantial moment, on weak reasoning that can be abandoned when a good opportunity arises. Then during day 3, she was fighting the massclaim which revealed nero's guilty on shadow, heavily pushing for a karnos lynch instead. I'm currently inclined to suspect her most.

One question: I'm not familiar with shadows meta, but do you feel that he's more likely to fake an innocent on a partner (Elyse/Kraska) or ignore his partner in his investigations (Karnos)?

I've been having doubts. Like, idk I still feel like his early game was a bit wonky and I wouldn't put it past him to go "look I'm RVSing scum so I can't be scum!" Sometimes, I think players play pro-town as scum and play like shit as town. I mean when Michel and I played in viewtopic.php?f=53&t=67506 he spent the whole game lynching town and never ONCE did he go back and reasscess. So why does he do that here? Why is a scum flip cause for a reassessment but not a town flip?

The reason I didn't reassess in that game is simple: I concluded that iranoa and gerry were town, and that zap was likely town as well. That left BigYoshiFan, you and maria as the possible scum. BYF townflip didn't contradict that view, so there was no need to reassess.

In this game, on the other hand, blitz scum flip did contradict my previous belief that giga was scum, as the way blitz attacked giga was unlikely to come from scumbuddies. This forced me to rethink.

[MichelSableheart]

If there is a day 5, I may not be able to post before going on holiday, as 48 hours from now leaves only Thursday evening European time for me.

The overall plan of lynching Karnos and Elyse to find the last scum seems good, but I'm still having some doubts about Kraska. Nero, I really could do with your thoughts on her, as you're effectively confirmed town.

How was I supposed to know that massclaim would put Nero's guilty? Even if I was scum I wouldn't know that. Why couldn't he just not have shot or there not be a vig?

I still think I was right with the information I had. Now it makes sense why Thor wanted it - he was a bodyguard who could protect the vig. But from my PoV it would only out the vig, and I thought any guilty would have been out in the open already.

Plus if you look back I was like the only one to stick with the guilty the entire time. If I was scum hesitant about bussing shadow, why wouldn't I feed into people's paranoia that shadow was town?

Idk I'm just confused that I was widely townread and now I'm considered to be on the same level as fucking karnos. Really?

I think it's well possible that as scum you were trying to prevent a shadow guilty to come out. The gerry kill almost certainly came from a vig, and since scum is highly likely to have a doctor, you would know who you protected night 1. Once the result was out in the open, it couldn't really be fought, but trying to prevent the result to come out seems like a viable scum tactic.

[MichelSableheart]

I can make a post now, and another one in about 1-1.5 hours or so, but after that I'll be gone till tuesday.

The nightkill seems obvious to me as well, so I don't think we gain much by No Lynching.

For me, Elyse seems like the lynch to go for. Her play during day 2 and 3 seems like it could very well come from scum: bussing blitz when her lynch had gained momentum, and trying to keep the shadow guilty hidden.

I still have a nagging thought in the back of my head that I can't be sure about Kraska, but I have no real reasons to suspect her. Giga, you are townreading kraska, right?

[MichelSableheart]

As I mentioned, I currently feel that Elyse is most likely scum. If Giga and Kraska both vote her, I'm willing to gamble that kraska's town.

Given that, I don't really see a need to keep you waiting till tuesday in that situation.

Vote: Elyse

Giga, if you reach a different conclusion regarding Elyse and Kraska, I'll read your thoughts when I come back.

I'm going to say goodbye for now, see you on tuesday.

[MichelSableheart]

@mod: It probably doesn't matter, as I shouldn't go up to three prods, but is an announced V/LA really equal reason to prod as an unannounced disappearance?

Ok, I'm back, so I should be able to answer any questions you may have for me.

In the meantime, I keep having doubts about Kraska. I'm not really comfortable with 2510-2512's fishing for a hammer opportunity, yet at the same time it feels rather blatant for scum.

@Giga: how should I read your reaction in #2513?

[MichelSableheart]

Phew, that settles it.

@both non-confirmed townies, why are you town? serious question

It's not an easy question to answer though. I already know I'm town, which makes it difficult for me to answer that question from the perspective of someone who doesn't know that.

The best way for me to answer the question is probably to point out how you can determine the answer for yourself. Throughout the game, I have tried to make the reasoning for my suspicions clear. If you read through my posts in this game, it should be possible to understand where I was coming from. Look at that reasoning, and judge for yourself if that was a town perspective.

If I have to point out one moment where I feel I contributed to the town, I would have to point at my day 3 play. Not only did I realize there I was wrong about giga and adjust my reads accordingly, but I also feel I was pretty instrumental in getting shadow lynched.

[MichelSableheart]

My reaction to mhsmith dying was just stupidity lol.

I also don't think that if I was set up to be the "deep townie", Shadow would fake a result on me. Seems unnecessary to potentially join us together like that.

Claiming that he wouldn't fake on you because it would lead us to you is a WIFOM argument. You are essentially arguing that faking a result on his partner is good for him, but because we know this, he becomes less likely to do it. As soon as he thinks we might think that, he becomes more likely again to fake on his partner.

All else being equal, Shadow would love to confirm his partners claim, because as long as he doesn't die, it makes you less likely to die as well. So the base action is likely to be done scum. From a neutral viewpoint, WIFOM can lessen the strength of that base argument somewhat, but to claim that it makes you town is ridiculous.

[MichelSableheart]

If I was too aggressive there, I apologize, but we can't afford you influencing kraska and giga with nonsense.

You're claiming town points for it, so what risk are you talking about? If you can correctly claim townpoints, then there's no higher risk of getting lynched. And vice versa, if there's a higher risk of getting lynched, it's because this action is more likely to come from scum and you shouldn't get townpoints for it.

[MichelSableheart]

@Elyse: So you take something that is likely to come from scumpartners, and you say that because it's likely to come from scumpartners, scum wouldn't do it, which makes you town. That's the definition of WIFOM reasoning.

Fact is that you had already claimed VT, so you were a logical nighttarget for a town vanilla cop. So shadow claiming to have investigated you makes both your claims more believable. At low risk, because until you claimed the oppositie today, noone brought up the argument that shadow must have investigated his scumbuddy.

@Giga: I'm wondering what you think you found. Because from my POV, Elyse' interactions with blitz make perfect sense for scumbuddies. She ignored her most of the time, and distanced when the goon got under heavy pressure.

[MichelSableheart]

Thanks for the game, everyone! Was a fun one.

I'm fine with making the mafia thread public.

This game felt pretty well balanced, but very swingy. Mafia had enough power to offset the town, but a few different night actions could have made all the difference. Oddly enough, if nero had shot gerry and karnos night 1 and 2, I don't think we could have made it, because we would have needed to mislynch both Elyse and Kraska to get there. Similarly if shadow had been the doctor instead of me.

@Nero: I'm sure I would have made the same, or at least a very similar, AVS vote.

[MichelSableheart]

I'm mightily impressed by shadows ability to find town PR's, by the way. He was the one directing the first two nightkills.

[MichelSableheart]

@shadow: vanilla cop was only useless because you were awesome with your nighttargets. If we had killed thor as I suggested night 1, we would have needed your investigations to find those investigative roles ASAP.

@chilledtea: any chance of the review/mod topic? I'm quite interested to see that discussion as well.

[MichelSableheart]

mhsmith, while I agree with you that the mafia doctor was very powerful in this setup, I think you are severely underestimating the town power here.

If the tracker tracks the mafia doc to one of his partners, it's difficult for the doc to find a claim that can explain that action. Doctor doesn't work, as it's likely the most scummy member of the mafia team that was protected. I would probably have to claim either jailkeeper or roleblocker in that situation, but both of those are obvious scumclaims given the other powers the town has. Similarly, Vanilla Cop/Neapolitan is also too much investigative power, so the mafia vanilla cop also has trouble fakeclaiming. If the tracker targets any of the scumteam during the night and survives, there is a good chance that scummember will be lynched as a result.

Similarly, even though the gunsmith isn't as strong as a full cop (1 incorrect innocent, 1 incorrect guilty), he can also detect two of the mafia members.

Finally, the vig. If mafia doc prevents the vig shot, then that effectively functions as a guilty result on the player targeted (as could be seen during night 3). If he shoots 2 town players, town gains a mislynch. And if he shoots 1 townplayer, he becomes conftown himself, without actually costing town a lynch (as his target would likely have been lynched anyway).

Add the bodyguard, who should help keep conftownplayers (vig/investigative/investigative results) alive and confirm himself town in the process.

Basically, scum used it's nightabilities optimally this game, killing both investigative roles night 1 and night 2, preventing a vig kill, then killing confirmed innocents night 3 and 4. Yet we still lost 2 scummembers (at least partially) to night interactions. blitz' fakeclaim wasn't believable given town power, and the vig shot on shadow essentially functioned as a guilty investigation. If perfect nightactions leave you with 1 scummember who needs to dodge 4 kills (lynch, vig shot, lynch, lynch), I don't think you can call the mafia abilities overpowered.

[MichelSableheart]

I agree with you that scum has more power then goon/goon/roleblocker. Doc is comparable to roleblocker in the way it counters the town powers, so the vanilla cop is added bonus.

What I disagree with is your assessment that town is weak.

Start with the vig. If the vig gets off two shots, even on town, he has gained town a lynch. (suppose that nero shot karnos night 1, and all other nightkills and lynches remain the same. Then day 4 would see Nero, Giga, Kraska, Elyse and me alive, with Nero and giga confirmed and me needing 2 mislynches). The only way a vig kill will be stopped is if he targets a mafiamember, which in lategame spec is similar to a guilty result (see the day 3 discussion). The vig, even 2 shot, is a very strong role in this situation.

Next, the gunsmith. He gets a fake guilty on the vig, but the vig has provable actions, so that's unlikely to lead to a mislynch. Other then that, he gets a correct guilty on 2 out of 3 mafia members. That's not as strong as a full cop, but is still an extremely useful role.

Third, the tracker. This role gets a correct guilty on 1 out of 3 mafia members, and severely limits the ability of the other two mafia members to fakeclaim, as he may have contradictory results. If IAI had tracked me night 1 and survived, I would have to claim jailkeeper/roleblocker and coordinate that claim with shadow during night 1. Once shadow claimed vanilla cop during day 2, I didn't have a good claim that could explain my night 1 action anymore. Again, tracker is not as strong as a full cop, but it is a second strong investigative role.

The bodyguard is far from useless. It increases the chances that the strong roles in the setup (vig and 2x investigative) survive to use their abilities. If thor had protected IAI night 1, town would have had a guilty result on blitz. Even if it fails at protecting the powerroles early (as was the case here), it can still force the mafia to nightkill the bodyguard rather then the player they wanted to target. I had to keep Giga alive to Mylo because you protected Nero.

The weakest role of the 5(!) is the ascetic, but even that role functions as a named townie with a confirmable ability, so is not completely useless.

Sure, most of the townroles were limited to 2 or 3 shots, but that's all a town powerrole can hope for anyway. Surviving as a town powerrole to day 4 is rare, so the limited number of shots is not a huge downside.

My estimation is that scum was stronger then a usual scumteam, and town was stronger then a usual town (I would rate this town as stronger then any you listed). That's why I rate this game balanced, but swingy.

[MichelSableheart]

Let's compare the towns you listed to this one:

1823: 2 shot vig is marginally weaker then full vig, tracker is the same. bodyguard is somewhat weaker then doctor, ascetic is somewhat weaker then 1 shot bulletproof, but gunsmith adds a very strong investigative role.

1782: follower & voyeur is a slightly weaker investigative role combination than tracker & gunsmith, but it becomes similar when you add in their neighbour status. That leaves the JK/RB combination, who together have an action every night. Their actions are unlikely to have more impact than those of the vig, however, and this town has the bodyguard and ascetic on top of that.

1775: universal backup has a similar impact on the game as the bodyguard, in that it helps town powerroles survive, though it's somewhat stronger. The JOAT has far less investigative power then the tracker/gunsmith combination (gunsmith is close enough to cop that the added tracker makes the combination stronger then a single full cop), and the jailkeeper will have a weaker impact then the vig. Add the ascetic for added town power here.

the mini theme: odd night vig is weaker then 2 shot vig, bodyguard is the same, watcher is comparable to tracker, IC is weaker then gunsmith (who can also get guilty results). This comparison is therefore fully dependent on the strenght of the flavour info and comes closest, but if the flavour has impact comparable to the named townie status of the ascetic, then this town is stronger.

[MichelSableheart]

The problem is that you can not significantly nerf scum while keeping tracker+gunsmith+vig+bodyguard in the game. This is a mini. With the vig in the game, mafia only gets 4 nightkills to work with. Each of the four named roles is provable and therefore unlynchable. Mafia has to hit these four powerroles with their four nightkills, or is forced to take a confirmed innocent into Mylo/Lylo regardless of the actual nightactions of these four powerroles.

Yet the tracker and the gunsmith can create more confirmed innocents, and the vig can reduce the lynch pool as well. Even if they never target scum (which would mean the doctor has no effect whatsoever), scum risks losing simply due to process of elimination.

Your main complaint seems to be that scum doctor massively nerfs the vig. This is not the case. An important function of the vig, getting rid of scummy looking town, is completely unaltered by the scum doc. And even if the scum doc does stop a vig kill, that is essentially the same as a guilty investigation in this setup. As you can see from the discussion of day 3, once it's clear that there are a vig and a gunsmith in the game, scum doctor becomes a logical conclusion, which means that the failed vig kill must have been on scum.

You can alter something in the margins, like getting rid of the X-shot on the gunsmith (what is the chance he will live past night 4 to make use of that?) or the X-shot on the bodyguard, but you can't significantly nerf the doc without getting rid of town power.