That said, it'd be mathematically fallacious to assume that a second VT is less likely just because one's flipped. (That said, VT – and less powerful/protective roles in general – tend to be more common fakeclaims for scum because they're harder to confirm and give less information away. Additionally, many players who are used to more normal games are in the habit of claiming VT as the "default" claim for scum. So a VT claim in a game generated like this still makes me more suspicious of a player than most other claims would, just for different reasons.)
In post 623, Heartache wrote:The odds of 3 rolls being protective are just incredibly low. Statistically.
There's four protectives (Doc, JK, Bodyguard, Roleblocker) and a JOAT, that's 5/27 or 5/25 chance to get protective. The chance for a town player to get VT is 1/27, and we possibly have two. I don't want to do the math, but I think the odds are higher for three protectives than two VTs.
I mean, someone has to be a blocker of some sorts anyway, Bodyguard is confirmed and I don't doubt Sgz13's doc.
"I still cant believe Leonshade just talked his way out of getting lynched by posting Lion King gifs"
- Vecna
I can understand why Gamma Emerald thought that Sgz was scum; he was blocking Sgz, there was no kill, it seems reasonable. However, a number of unexplained blocks have been claimed; and the fact that I was blocking Sgz repeatedly means that it's
less
likely that Sgz is responsible (because being blocked means that he couldn't block anyone else). Meanwhile, there's a need to explain the no-kill, and most likely either Sgz was performing the kill, or Sgz was the target (likely because scum had somehow determined he was a Weak Doctor and thus a huge threat).
Do you think I should have strong views on Sgz based on dayplay, or only on night actions? If it's based on night actions, then why don't you think 1SVT is scum?
Night actions. The unexplained blocks couldn't have been done by town, otherwise why lie during the massclaim? So yes, either Sgz was the target or scum from your POV.
I don't think 1SVT is scum, I think you're scum. 1SVT is my strongest TR.
"I still cant believe Leonshade just talked his way out of getting lynched by posting Lion King gifs"
- Vecna
Wow, just reread McMenno as a result of this conversation, and the ISO is all sorts of terrible. I don't think he explained any reads all game until D4 (unless I missed something), and then tried to narrow the lynch pool to me/Heartache/Leonshade based on a dubious theory argument (#595 which translates to "I claimed VT therefore I can't possibly have taken any night actions even if I'm scum").
Why does it seem like everyone's ISO is terrible this game? At the moment it's hard for me to know who's scum because there are so many choices.
@McMenno
: Care to explain the reasoning behind some of your reads earlier in the game?
In post 629, Leonshade wrote:Night actions. The unexplained blocks couldn't have been done by town, otherwise why lie during the massclaim? So yes, either Sgz was the target or scum from your POV.
I don't think 1SVT is scum, I think you're scum. 1SVT is my strongest TR.
There are a few situations involving multiple scum roleblockers/rolestoppers/jailkeepers too, but I agree that Sgz was most likely either the nightkill target or the nightkill performer N2.
However, what I don't get is why you'd think I'd conclude from that that Sgz is scum. There are unclaimed blocks going around. I know I wasn't responsible for that (and in a "my POV" argument, you have to make the assumption). I blocked Sgz. Thus isn't it more likely that the unclaimed blocks came from somebody else?
My point about the blocks wasn't that Sgz was the blocker (he couldn't have been if you're telling the truth). My point was that from your POV Sgz HAS to be either the target, or the performer, of the N2 NK. Scum wouldn't block their own kill. Town would claim their role honestly in a massclaim. As such, from your POV, the kill had to be blocked by you.
"I still cant believe Leonshade just talked his way out of getting lynched by posting Lion King gifs"
- Vecna
For example, say you're scum with Heartache and actually a roleblocker. You block me N2, Sgz's protection on 1SVT goes through and stops the kill. That doesn't seem that implausible to me.
Me being the target N2 isn't that unfeasible really. The major scum reads on me didn't come until D3, plus there's the possibility my role was discovered or maybe there was a gut feeling I had a strong PR because of my lesser activity early on.
For example, say you're scum with Heartache and actually a roleblocker. You block me N2, Sgz's protection on 1SVT goes through and stops the kill. That doesn't seem that implausible to me.
Hmm, that's true. I hadn't considered that since I know it's not true, but it is a possibility you have to keep in mind.
Sgz13 wrote:Me being the target N2 isn't that unfeasible really. The major scum reads on me didn't come until D3, plus there's the possibility my role was discovered or maybe there was a gut feeling I had a strong PR because of my lesser activity early on.
Also true, scum might also have been afraid of NKing one of me and 1-Shot in case of a protective and decided to shoot you instead.
If CFJ is telling the truth, 1-Shot is not conftown. But if CFJ hasn't blocked Sgz13 both nights, 1-Shot is conftown. The only scenario in which scum!Sgz would claim 1-Shot is conftown is if he knew he was blocked both times and could later backtrack on it. That's not very likely, so I think Sgz is probtown.
"I still cant believe Leonshade just talked his way out of getting lynched by posting Lion King gifs"
- Vecna
This.really it should be a 1 v 1 against me and heart anyway right?
Heart claims no result meaning Roleblocker in some way. I am saying that only I visited so either I am confirmed Roleblockerror or heart is lying.
CoJ just seems to be focusing on me as the role blocker meaning that he believes I am flipping scum in this.
Trying to save the buddy and all.
I'm willing to no lynch if we can figure out a plan to verify mine/someone else's role or alignment that way. Though with the unexplained action failures, and the possibility of losing the game if Sgz13 docs scum, means we'd have to come up with a good plan.
"I still cant believe Leonshade just talked his way out of getting lynched by posting Lion King gifs"
- Vecna