Micro 659: Game Of Thrones S1E2 GAME OVER

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VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

definitely scum

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guys we let BBT lurk his way out of a wagon again

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personally I'm finding the flavor discussion pretty useless

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How is that bad though? I could see town doing that to create discussion.

CC what did you think of Expedience's answer to this

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also I'm gonna say Wisdom town

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also I'm gonna say Wisdom town

Can you at least enlighten us why you think Wisdom is town? Cause this post makes you look like a scum who's trying to associate himself with a town.

What do you mean by "trying to associate" myself with him? I'm putting out a 2-page gut read and seeing if anyone disagrees.

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Calling the current discussion useless without providing something else to discuss is pretty dumb, yeah?

Why did you ignore my 57 and 58, do those not count as things to discuss?

And even if I hadn't said anything else, and I agreed with you that my post was dumb, why would that matter?

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I thought it made sence. Thinking about what you personally do when your scum is a pretty good tool for scum hunting in my experience, and it looks like a town mindset to me.

hmmm

on the fence about the conclusion, but I like the explanation

also I support the Kraeg wagon

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I'm still trying to narrow my list for today before we do any lynching

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Do you have any reads all yet?

Wisdom and CC are town, not voting them today or likely ever

unfortunately nothing has struck me as particularly scummy so I haven't had a solid hook by which to sort the rest of the players, having just played a game with scum!BBT where he didn't play for the vast majority of the game out I've seen no reason to move my vote

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I wouldn't call asking a question and a random townread "things to discuss"

why not? Other players found things to discuss about them, but you pretended like I didn't make the posts until I called you out on it

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What are you hoping to get from these questions?

Scum generally need to make up reasons to scum read people. Considering Kraeg is saying he thinks there's scum on his wagon, it'd be interesting to see who he thinks it is and why. It can also help support associatives/distancing if he flips red.

As for GL, he hasn't really provided much this game, so similarly I'm trying to get content from him. Engaging people and getting information is the only way for us to root out the scum.

This answer was a lot better then expected, good reasoning behind both of those

I don't think his answer was all that good, and it's strange to me that you took your foot off the gas here. Are you still scumreading shaddowez? If not then what exactly is in this post that scum!shaddowez could not have faked

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I wouldn't call asking a question and a random townread "things to discuss"

why not? Other players found things to discuss about them, but you pretended like I didn't make the posts until I called you out on it

Where? Aside from the answer to the said question.

And I ignored those posts because I didn't consider them real topics of discussion

well the person you are currently voting asked me about it in 61, and accused me of possible scum motivation behind it. If my early Wis townread is not a "real topic of discussion", then what do you make of Kraeg pushing me on it?

speaking of,

@Kraeg

did you ever answer this:

also I'm gonna say Wisdom town

Can you at least enlighten us why you think Wisdom is town? Cause this post makes you look like a scum who's trying to associate himself with a town.

What do you mean by "trying to associate" myself with him? I'm putting out a 2-page gut read and seeing if anyone disagrees.

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hey mollie

I think people want to lynch Kraeg because he threw up a "go ahead and lynch me, scum is on my wagon" response when I nudged his wagon along

are you thinking that his posting is townie or just not-scummy

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What are you hoping to get from these questions?

Scum generally need to make up reasons to scum read people. Considering Kraeg is saying he thinks there's scum on his wagon, it'd be interesting to see who he thinks it is and why. It can also help support associatives/distancing if he flips red.

As for GL, he hasn't really provided much this game, so similarly I'm trying to get content from him. Engaging people and getting information is the only way for us to root out the scum.

This answer was a lot better then expected, good reasoning behind both of those

I don't think his answer was all that good, and it's strange to me that you took your foot off the gas here. Are you still scumreading shaddowez? If not then what exactly is in this post that scum!shaddowez could not have faked

I know you said you didn't think that anything so far was particularly scummy, but what you think about shaddowez overall and do you think this answer means anything?

eh, shaddowez keeps making these robotic posts which ping me on a gut level but in the end I do feel he's legitimately trying to game-solve. Like he's asked me a couple useless questions which initially I thought may have been scummy, but then he posts stuff like this:

Asking questions is the only way to determine motivations, and information we gain from other players is the only tool we have to use. Just letting people say/do things without wondering why can only mean you don't care about the reasons.

which makes me think it's a playstyle thing more than an alignment thing.

Cakez's pivot on him was what I was trying to explore, because it looks to me like he felt like he needed an excuse to drop his push on shaddowez so he could hop on the Kraeg wagon

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hey mollie

I think people want to lynch Kraeg because he threw up a "go ahead and lynch me, scum is on my wagon" response when I nudged his wagon along

are you thinking that his posting is townie or just not-scummy

I think it is not scummy.

can you walk me through your reads?

you have wis and cc as town and i don't see it.

I have read through everything, now I'm just replying to things in order, so these reads are through all 11 pages

town: {Wisdom, CC, shaddowez}
not-quite-town: {mollie, BBT, Kraeg, Kuroi}
scum: {Cakez}

I can't see Wisdom as scum, he's been creating content the whole game and I vibe with his slightly militant way of calling people out (stuff like 29, 79), especially for the early game. there's no fear in his posts. with respect to CC, he interjected himself into the Expedience-Cakez dialogue without trying to picking out one side or the other as scummy, which is what I was looking to see if he would do when I asked him about it. Also posting 112 without unvoting strikes me as townie as well, scum would be a lot more self-conscious about doubtcasting a wagon that they're still sitting on.

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Shit.

Later today, I swear.

I'll vote you if I don't get anything by tomorrow.

this vote never happened

Kuroi, why haven't you joined the BBT wagon?

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hey mollie

I think people want to lynch Kraeg because he threw up a "go ahead and lynch me, scum is on my wagon" response when I nudged his wagon along

are you thinking that his posting is townie or just not-scummy

This post seems very two-sided to me. You admit that you nudged the wagon along, without actually voting him. Additionally, you're almost hand waving away and cherry picking the argument, making it sound like you're dismissing the scum read. So which is it?

eh well I thought at the time that Kraeg hit L-1 quite rapidly, so I nudged it along to see how he'd react and whether anyone would bail from the wagon or defend him and why.

What happened was he was actually only at L-2 since Cakez had moved his vote, but then Cakez jumped back on and mollie started questioning why he was a wagon before voting him again. If Wisdom and CC are town and Kraeg is a targeted mislynch for today, then it's likely that one of mollie or Cakez is scum.

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your reasoning on BBT is literally "he's prod-dodging, means he's scum"

you can't possibly expect us to take this seriously

BBT is skilled enough that he would never resort to lurking, it's crystal clear that the prod dodging is happening because he actually doesn't have time for the game.

I take it seriously, scum!BBT lurked out of Hot Fuzz mafia, and only posted to hammer mislynches on D1 and D2.

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Essentially, you're saying, "I'm as confident of him being scum as I possibly can be without a confirmed cop result." Is that correct?

i dont actually know
his posts feel so contrived so consistently that im starting to think hes just THAT bad
which i shouldnt be thinking ever because its against common sense but blame the years of me seeing bad town players playing badly

But I mean, people don't ever say, "If I'm wrong, I'm going to be taking a break," unless you're that certain of someone flipping scum. That's like saying, "I'll bet you a million bucks that..." You wouldn't say that unless you were that sure.

I don't like how Kuroi is riffing on this at all, it's a lot of framing

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anyway that's my shotgun of catchup posts for now, let me know if I missed anything

I'd like a Cakez/Kuroi/BBT lynchpool for today

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Well yeah the stuff Kraeg was posting was unbelievably scummy and Shaddowez had good reactions soooo the conclusion there is obvious for me

If Kraeg is unbelievably scummy then why aren't you considering that he might be town?

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Shit.

Later today, I swear.

I'll vote you if I don't get anything by tomorrow.

this vote never happened

Kuroi, why haven't you joined the BBT wagon?

Why would I?

You said you would. Why threaten a vote if you didn't intend to follow up on it?

Essentially, you're saying, "I'm as confident of him being scum as I possibly can be without a confirmed cop result." Is that correct?

i dont actually know
his posts feel so contrived so consistently that im starting to think hes just THAT bad
which i shouldnt be thinking ever because its against common sense but blame the years of me seeing bad town players playing badly

But I mean, people don't ever say, "If I'm wrong, I'm going to be taking a break," unless you're that certain of someone flipping scum. That's like saying, "I'll bet you a million bucks that..." You wouldn't say that unless you were that sure.

I don't like how Kuroi is riffing on this at all, it's a lot of framing

No. This is a lot of analyzing. I'm trying to analyze Wisdom's statements in a way that make sense to me.

To me it reads like you're trying to frame Wisdom's scumread into a level of confidence that he wasn't consenting to. What did this line of questioning tell you and what is your current read on Wisdom?

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oh lmao I haven't played a game with Kraeg, I was thinking of ConManMick in Open 635 when I was talking about Kraeg earlier. Kraeg modded an Open I was in which is how I got confused.

Then my worries about him being mislynch bait are out the window (unless someone else has meta with him)

mollie has meta with him and has already expressed worries about him being a mislynch. I don't like how you just vaguely reaffirm confidence in your top scumread, instead of asking her about it directly.

and the point of my question was that you keep switching between describing Kraeg as super scummy yet hedging it with points about how he could be lynchbait, and this is yet another example of it. I don't think your scumread of him is genuine

VOTE: Sir Cakez

L-1

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I think scum are usually more inclined than town to downplay their projected scumread, because they know that it's wrong.

Look at these bits of progression from Cakez:

I am concerned that Kraeg is just being lynchbait though, I've mislynched him before.

Yeah that post from Kraeg was scummy af

Meanwhile Kraeg is flinging shade at his wagon without actually contributing reads which is enough for me to think he's scum over lynchbait here

the stuff Kraeg was posting was unbelievably [

later clarified to: super

] scummy

Then my worries about him being mislynch bait are out the window (unless someone else has meta with him)

If he were town and he really thought Kraeg was obvscum, I don't think he'd be compelled to note his fears of a mislynch so much. It's more than just once, it's a pattern back and forth between very scummy vs possible lynchbait. The last one is especially bad because mollie has already talked about her meta with Kraeg and a belief that he is town, and Cakez is doubling down while also leaving room to walk back again in the parenthesis.

Granted, sometimes scum will go the opposite direction and

overplay

confidence in a scumread, but I don't see Cakez's waffling as town waffling in this instance. It'd be one thing if it was just once, but he's still doing it even after his meta "lynchbait" read turned out false.

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We have four days left, and I think we'll learn a lot about Kraeg, Wisdom and Pirate if we hammer, so let's do it.

so what did you learn

VOTE: KuroiXHF

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It's almost like you don't care what I have to say or you already know who scum is.

it's really not

Why are you hesitating to commit to a read one way or the other on Wisdom?

BBT - you need to give reads and preferably a lynch pool, ASAP

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why are you here if you're not going to play

like I can't deal with this, it's significantly harder to form reads when there is one player prodging and ignoring the game, and if you're town then scum is literally never going to NK you

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also, I think mollie is town

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one player vastly affects reads, what are you talking about? Depending on your alignment I am looking for one scum in the remaining players or two. The best way to know when you're townreading scum is when the rest of your reads don't fit or feel right.

You have no associative information and have contributed nothing by way of thoughts or pushes. Your play is either masking your alignment or giving scum a complete pass.

But the vote is a good start

P-edit: Kuroi are you aware that my second post you quoted is aimed at BBT?

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I haven't explicitly said that.

but yes, I am currently attempting to recalibrate after Cakez flip and thinking about things

what makes you call it a "big song and dance"?

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this notion that I am "so sure of myself" or that I won't listen to opinions is entirely invented by Kuroi

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so I thought about this for a while today, and as much as it pains me to change my opinion on Kuroi after he accused me of refusing to change my opinions, I am thinking he looks town here.

He says he believes "the only possible scum neighborizer" would not be in Episode 2,

BBT hasn't told me who he is. But the fact remains, I've

proven

to him that I'm a neighborizer. I also told him my role. I might as well tell you too. I'm Ros.

As I told him, the only possible reasonable scum neighborizer would be Petyr Baelish, who doesn't exist until Episode 3.

but then soon after openly acknowledges that his own character is not in Episode 2

I mentioned in the PT that Ros wasn't in episode two.

So that makes no sense to me either.

this contradiction is not a logical thought process, but I think scum is less likely to be careless in defending themselves like this. Also, I kinda doubt scum!Kuroi would neighborize a town!BBT, if I were a scum neighborizer I would neighborize a vocal player who was townreading me and make sure they were pocketed for the long game.

Meanwhile BBT exaggerated my posting by calling it a "song and dance" and then ignored me when I asked him about it. I also don't think the argument that neighborizer = scum is compelling at all.
VOTE: BBT

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that's L-1 btw

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it's not a reaction test, I think BBT is scum and I want my vote there

I don't think a quickhammer will happen, unless BBT self-hammers which would be a scum lynch at that point anyway

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GL - Other than BBT's lack of contributions, what arguments do you have for him as scum? The only other place you've voted toDay is Kuroi, and since they're basically scum reading each other I'm interested in why BBT right now, other than the fact his wagon was larger at the time.

He made it a point not to do anything on D1, and then turned this around to misrep me when I started calling him out for it on D2. I pointed out the misrep twice and he still has not addressed it. I also don't like the way BBT used Kuroi asking about flavor in the neighborhood thread to justify his push on Kuroi, it's what I would expect scum to do to capitalize on a potential mislynch because it's not information that we all have access to so twisting Kuroi's posting/motives is significantly easier and can't really be challenged directly by anyone.

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GL - Other than BBT's lack of contributions, what arguments do you have for him as scum? The only other place you've voted toDay is Kuroi, and since they're basically scum reading each other I'm interested in why BBT right now, other than the fact his wagon was larger at the time.

He made it a point not to do anything on D1, and then turned this around to misrep me when I started calling him out for it on D2. I pointed out the misrep twice and he still has not addressed it. I also don't like the way BBT used Kuroi asking about flavor in the neighborhood thread to justify his push on Kuroi, it's what I would expect scum to do to capitalize on a potential mislynch because it's not information that we all have access to so twisting Kuroi's posting/motives is significantly easier and can't really be challenged directly by anyone.

there has been a lot of other stuff that has happened and I wld really love see your thoughts on them. and an updated readslist from you wld be great.

what other stuff? I didn't really catch anything significant that I wanted to comment on

I will say I don't like how Kraeg casually hops on the shaddowez wagon with BBT supporting it as well. It feels like there's too much support for this lynch. I still think shaddowez is town, what is the case against him?

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hi guys

I have to run off to work, I will try to post something more substantive on my lunch break, or worst case, when I get home tonight (9-10 hours tonight). I read up and I think Kraeg is the last scum. He pushed the "scum is on my wagon" narrative in D1 when shaddowez wasn't on his wagon, throws a loose accusation at shaddowez in 539 when suspicion was building, but then in 563 makes an attempt to swing Kuroi back to BBT instead of shaddowez:

I don't think I'll get a lynch on BBT, but I do think Shaddow is scum. He has also been quiet.

VOTE: Shaddowez

You don't think you'll get a lynch on BBT? He was at L-1 before you unvoted. Shaddow has expressed his intent to lynch BBT. He's close to getting lynched.

before what looks like an inevitable bus vote in 576.

Also, as mollie pointed out, she supported the shaddowez lynch as well in 547, which would make the lynch look like a given to a nervous shaddowez partner (Wis+BBT+Kuroi+mollie support), and 574 reads like Kraeg felt compelled to invent a reason to vote him after Wisdom practically bullies him into it.

VOTE: Kraeg

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well my reasoning is what I just posted about why he IS the last scum, but I'll try to respond to your argument later. On first thought though I don't think NK spec can ever really clear someone, as even the most ironclad "scum wouldn't shoot x" claim becomes WIFOM once [x] is killed, but I'll chew on it more today

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what the hell was that, I said I would be here later today, why would you rush a hammer

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Let's just lynch and see how GL or Kuroi flips.

The thing is if I'm gonna vote for Kuroi, I'll doit to sheep your read and get this day over. Not necessarily because I think Kuroi is scum.

this is such obvious scumposting I can't even

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except I'm also town and that lynching me loses the game, so let's not

Wisdom I started to ISO shaddowez again and I don't see why you ruled Kraeg out as a buddy other than the NK. shadow's ISO has a bunch of empty distancing comments towards Kraeg, including his last vote before being lynched. I'll detail it tonight if the thread isn't locked by then

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Happy Birthday Radja!

I am Ned Stark, VT

VOTE: Kraeg

mollie what are the "VT tells" you mentioned seeing from Kraeg?

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bah! mollie if I had come in here casing Kraeg would it have changed your mind?

I didn't have time for this game Sunday/Monday but I felt you were leaning this way already, I am sorry I didn't put in more effort but I was going to start as of this post :/

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I am sorry shaddowez that I didn't have time to put more into the LYLO, didn't think mollie would hammer so quickly

thanks for modding Radja! The flair was great

and well done town, you guys were tough. BBT you played your role well hahah, that must have been fun. I think the swing to shaddow was the key to the town win here, maybe I should have done more to fight that wagon but people just seemed to suddenly lock in. It was a fun game and a positive environment, I enjoyed playing with you all.

any constructive criticism/feedback on my scumplay is welcome!

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we shoulda killed Wisdom n1 too, in hindsight