Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame


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Post Post #1275 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:58 am

Post by BlackVoid »

In post 1274, goodmorning wrote:Alright, I'm bored, I'll take pity:
Strong Town: Raskolnikov, BlackVoid, MariaR
Weak Town: Jaack, CloudKicker
Scum: Hoopla, VictorDeAngelo, I Am Innocent, Sotty7

idek: Creature

Scum are in No Particular Order but note where my vote currently is. That Hoopla post was the single scummiest thing to come from anyone this entire game.
Yeah, I wasn't a fan of that Hoopla post either although I felt Sotty7's D1 play had almost no town motivation. I'm considering whether TwoFace was killed because he had Sotty7/Hoopla pegged as a team as opposed to me who argued that they weren't partnered.

I've actually come around to a townread on Creature. Jaack is still town for me. Even more so if Sotty7 is scum. I don't agree with you on Victor and IAI.

Thanks for this post. It reasssured me that my earlier townread on you was right. I was starting to get concerned.

The only people I don't have townreads on are Sotty7, MariaR, Hoopla, and Rask.
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Post Post #1276 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:08 am

Post by BlackVoid »

Wait, I seem to have glossed over this but the last thing you said about me was that I could be scum and then you have me in your top town list?

I'm assuming you think Rask's case is town and misguided? Still wondering what your response would be. He's not wrong that you didn't do much around deadline to push Victor over GreyICE.

Need to think this over. This game is hard.
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Post Post #1277 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:24 am

Post by Creature »

lol you're strong townreading MariaR.
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Post Post #1278 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:36 am

Post by MariaR »

Instead of shade casting why don't you do something about it Creature?
I bet Maria is scum this game
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Post Post #1279 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:38 am

Post by I Am Innocent »

In post 511, Hoopla wrote:I was working on this yesterday, but ran out of time. Here are some READS:

FUTURE TOWN BLOC MEMBERS WHO WILL SERVE AS THE BACKBONE (ALONG WITH ME) IN GUIDING THE TOWN:

Michel
- I see him as a voice of reason type who we seem to be lacking in this town (not that everyone else isn't reasonable -- it just seems like everyone is all over the shop and shooting from the hip)
Raskolnikov
- seems to be the most universally read as town player, which will be useful for collective PoE efforts later in the game

TOWNIE BUT A TINGE OF PARAN
OIA:

BlackVoid
- makes good posts, is active and seems like a good townie, but from what I've seen of him, he seems competent enough to be able to fake these things convincingly. Hopefully he is town and can serve as a consultation role to the primary town bloc.

S
T
U
B
B
O
R
N
/
L
O
O
S
E
C
A
N
N
O
N
T
O
W
N
I
E
S
:

Maria
- unpredictable, but I'm a sucker for exclamations like
"It's fun to ask why people sr me because it's so much more fun to prove them wrong ^_^"
- I just don't see scum saying stuff like this as often as town
Victor
- has that abrasive town feel about him, but I'm mostly townreading him because of other people's reactions towards him.

LURKERS/NULL/DUNNO:

Jaack
- post some more please
I Am Innocent
- post some more please
Cloudkicker
- hard to get a read on his motivations when he is fresh to MS's metagame. Sometimes he says filler-y/random agreeing posts, but I feel like that's just trying to fit in and act in a way how he thinks is expected of him on this site rather than anything scummy.

SCUMLORDS:

Sotty
- Actually feel like she's closer to null these days, but I have too many townreads and by PoE I think all the scum is in my null/scum section
goodmorning
- If Victor is town, I think it's quite likely that one of goodmorning/twoface are scum jumping in on the dogpile
TwoFace
- see above, probs not scum together tho
BlueBloodedToffee
- Upon reread is my top suspect is BBT. I noticed the same thing BlackVoid did but didn't have enough to post about it, which is why make the declaration that Rask is town, then later in the day start questioning someone else about their Rask townread. Seems like scum making up an arbitrary read early in the game (rather than really believing it as town) then later, just throwing out random filler-y questions as is scum's wont, without really recognising it doesn't make sense from a town perspective.

Might be some partner combos that are unlikely within my scumlords section, so sprinkle in the null/lurkers where appropriate to get the rest of the team.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BBT
Interesting that hoopla's unvote was for sotty, who is still a scum read ("but probably closer to null these days")

Prior to this vote exchange, Sotty was up to 4 votes and BBT was tied for 2nd at 2.
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Post Post #1280 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:41 am

Post by I Am Innocent »

In post 512, Hoopla wrote:I think the Sotty/BBT competing wagons look quite delicious and I am fascinated to see how they will progress.
Very next post. Yet despite the two delicious wagons and seeing how they progressed (BBT/grey was lynched and flipped town), hoopla seems to have forgotten all this D2:
In post 1266, Hoopla wrote:First of all, kudos to GreyICE for replacing into a probably doomed slot and putting a ton of effort into providing analysis for the town -- I think if I were around late in the day that effortposting might have been enough to sway me and I'll review your reads later. Some anti-kudos for the predictable name calling and blame-the-other-guy spazzing out, but whatevs.

Personally, I find the mason claim highly likely to be true. I'm very curious about those who claim scum do this all the time, because I rarely see it... at least not in mini normals where balance can be judged upon massclaim. Two mason fakeclaims will stick out like a sore thumb in a sea of PR claims if they are indeed fake. The most likely situation is we have two masons and one other good PR or two masons and two weak to middling roles. There's pretty much never two masons in a town with three or four other PR's, so we can easily tell later in the game if the mason claim is fake. So, everyone should just drop it until massclaim occurs... which we'll be doing the Day before mylo/lylo.

Anyway, while I'm catching up, I see there is a goodmorning wagon and how could I not take that opportunity? I still think there was a scum involved in that nonsensical argument that Victor/me/goodmorning/TwoFace had yesterday. She almost certainly isn't a mason too which is bonus points in my eyes for avoiding accidentally wagoning the other mason.

VOTE: goodmorning

...more to come.
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Post Post #1281 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:56 am

Post by Creature »

In post 1278, MariaR wrote:Instead of shade casting why don't you do something about it Creature?
Okay you're town.
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Post Post #1282 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:59 am

Post by MariaR »

In post 1281, Creature wrote:
In post 1278, MariaR wrote:Instead of shade casting why don't you do something about it Creature?
Okay you're town.
nanaanana you do NOT get away from me that easy

Let's talk about the maria sr you "had"
I bet Maria is scum this game
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Na Maria isn't towny enough to be scum this game~
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Post Post #1283 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:00 am

Post by Creature »

Well, I had, but actually you're hard to read.
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Post Post #1284 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:07 am

Post by MariaR »

Okay what pinged you the wrong way about me then there was clearly something.
I bet Maria is scum this game
~Firebringer
Na Maria isn't towny enough to be scum this game~
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Post Post #1285 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:08 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1268, I Am Innocent wrote:Hoopla who else do u suspect? Thoughts on Sotty?
I'm not particularly suspicious of Sotty anymore. I found the meta analysis of her being more active as town and quiet as scum convincing. I wouldn't be super surprised if she's scum, but there's at least three others I'd lynch before her.

I think Maria and Rask are probably town. I think Cloudkicker is loltown. I feel like my Michel town read has expired since it's literally 1000 posts later and I don't have any real read on Creature yet.

My scumteam are in IAI, goodmorning, Jack. Maybe someone like Sotty/BV as a wildcard. I'm still kinda in catchup mode, but that's where I'm at right now.
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Post Post #1286 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:10 am

Post by MariaR »

I still don't understand the scotty wagon 2 of my big sr's are voting it and that's bias for me the kill doesn't make since for scotty scum either and I never really got the whole case yeah scotty has had a few posts I disagree with but nothing that screams scum to me

talk me through it everyone I have a few ideas if scoty somehow flips scum even if I highly doubt it.
I bet Maria is scum this game
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Na Maria isn't towny enough to be scum this game~
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Post Post #1287 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:19 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1270, goodmorning wrote:A. We don't have 2, we have 1. Scum doesn't have to all FC together.
B. Historically, # of roles in Normals has been decreasing. We could very well have few enough PRs that a couple Masons wouldn't look that weird. And Scum has a vague idea how night-strong Town is - their # and roles have to balance.
If Victor hasn't been NK'ed by the Day before LYLO, we make Victor claim his partner. We then massclaim as town. We either catch Victor as he claims no partner, or he ties himself to a buddy and we catch him AND his partner by setup speculation.

Historically, there has only been one Mini Normal out of hundreds where I've collected data, that the town has had 2 PR's. Typically the town gets 3-4 PR's (depending on what the scum gets). As such, it should be obvious in most massclaim situations if the mason claims are fake or not. Two mason fakeclaims + 3-4 other PR claims... yeah, the mason claims will be bogus. One or two other PR's? The mason claims are highly likely to be true.

Most of the time, the mason claim is true, and Victor will soak up the NK in one of the coming nights (I am a little surprised scum didn't try and kill him tonight), but regardless, if it is fake he has painted himself into a corner and will be caught. There's no point going after him today when there's decent odds the claim might be true. We find out either way after massclaim.
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Post Post #1288 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:23 am

Post by Creature »

^
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Post Post #1289 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:23 am

Post by Creature »

Sadly it's something any scum can say.
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Post Post #1290 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:23 am

Post by Creature »

Still think GM is town.
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Post Post #1291 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:25 am

Post by VictorDeAngelo »

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Creature
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Post Post #1292 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:27 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1289, Creature wrote:Sadly it's something any scum can say.
I'm laying down the blueprint for what town should do with our mason claim and massclaim in general.

It may be something anyone can say, but I am sad that I actually have to say it, because it's clearly the optimal way of dealing with things.
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Post Post #1293 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:37 am

Post by Creature »

I know.
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Post Post #1294 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:43 am

Post by Hoopla »

Creature, why did you say this:
In post 1290, Creature wrote:Still think GM is town.
When the previous mention of goodmorning was here:
In post 1230, Creature wrote:
In post 1186, Creature wrote:
Raskolnikov

goodmorning
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How exactly did she go from a suspect to "still think she's town"... when you never townread her to begin with?
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Post Post #1295 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:45 am

Post by Creature »

Did you look her posts between these two posts?
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Post Post #1296 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:48 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1295, Creature wrote:Did you look her posts between these two posts?
"Still think gm is town" implies you thought she was town to begin with, which you didn't.
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Post Post #1297 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:50 am

Post by Hoopla »

What happened between 1230-1290 that made you think she's town?
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Post Post #1298 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:52 am

Post by Creature »

Her posts.
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Post Post #1299 (ISO) » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:52 am

Post by Creature »

Hell, idk how to explain it, I am getting a different vibe from her.
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