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I'm figuring you mean three nights, not two. You've already had two nights. But yes, dying is bad, which is why soft claiming today was wholly unnecessary. And I've never seen a hedged claim (mini-claiming on one day, to make sure your value isn't 0. Except for breadcrumming, but that's shitty).In post 599, karnos wrote:On the other hand, waiting too many nights increases the chance that I will just be killed before I can share at all, which reduces my role's value to 0. I figure two nights is the sweet spot.
But why did you start by soft-claiming on ironstove then? Let's look at this with a shitty logic table. If you think (not actual results, but based on your intuition),In post 598, karnos wrote:I'm not saying I would have claimed yesterday, but I see advantages to not revealing my target.
If I have two people who I have used my power on, and I question one of them about it, they can't just lie and say "oh yeah, I did get that message on night 1" - not unless they want to gamble a 50% chance of getting the night wrong.
But if I spell out exactly who I targeted and when, they can just lie if they are scum and the investigative potential is wasted.
N1 = town, N2 = town
then claiming today has no benefits (you got no interesting information)
N1 = town, N2 = scum
then asking N1 to confirm makes complete sense (they confirm ironstove (N2))
N1 = scum, N2 = town
then asking N1 would have made more sense than asking N2
N1 = scum, N2 = scum
then asking no-one and waiting for the N3 sweetspot would have made the most sense.
Your play just never makes sense to me. Unless you investigated people that you have no read on, which we both agree would not be a good move right? Or you don't trust your intuition (which you should, if you're town. Because even if you're 10% worse at catching scum as other players right now, then you still have 10% more information than other people, because you know yourself as town - you'd be playing at an above average percentage. Good bets all round).
Additionally, you're wrong about your gamble (leaving it at that).
Honestly, even this discussion shouldn't have happened. But then again, neither should you claim.
(As a side, until we figure out how the rules changed from the chairman day, we should really not be voting at all until we majority-wise decide to lynch someone. There is literally no advantage to pre-emptive voting right now. Just throw FoSes around).
