Micro 662: ArcAngel's Twin Trap Mafia (Ended)

[milkshake]

For the reasons outlined in my posts, I recommend everyone hop aboard the Sleepless Assassin wagon! Sleepless Assassin is OK with it. He told me himself.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Kop:

Hey Kop, got any reads yet?

I don't like being ignored

Right now, I haven't got any solid reads in my mind to put forward.

Gut feelings is that Milkshake, Lil Uzi Vert, are town. But that's just gut.

Could you try to verbalize those gut reads and maybe re-read and come up with at least one guess for scum?

----------------------

As much as I disagree with milkshake's attitude towards random wagons and apathy, he seems to believe it. To be clear, yes it advances the game to have early wagons. But at some point, you need to develop reads and push them. But I don't see the scum motivation in him pushing this stance, so it's more likely that he genuinely believes what he is saying and is probably town.

[Arnold Schwarzenegger]

This game is a bit weird. There's no huge amount of pressure on any of the wagons.

[MisaTange]

Agreed @Arnold

Also:

Isn't doing something that has a lower than 50% chance (and because it has a lower than 50% chance) a fallacy?

(Also, also: I believe that Pine's case on me is more "I am milkshake's scumbuddy", which isn't a strong enough case for me to address imo)

[Pine]

You've got it backwards. I think that there is 1-2 scum in {SA, Misa}, and milkshake's scummy pushing of SA over you makes SA Town and you the scumbuddy. You're the starting point, not the other way around.

[Pine]

Isn't doing something that has a lower than 50% chance (and because it has a lower than 50% chance) a fallacy?

No. That's not what a fallacy is. Learn to English.

[MisaTange]

Ah, sorry about the misunderstanding

Interesting uhh.

Say I am today's lynch. Who is scum then on the world I flip town?

P-Edit: The term I was looking for was "inductively weak", not fallacy. i.e. the concept that you don't lynch because its probability is less than 50%.

[Sleepless Assassin]

It's Day 1. Why are we even talking about teams and partners. We should be lynching the person most likely to be scum and figuring out the rest later.

Even putting that aside though...

Teams are pretty hard to figure out when we have people who haven't made a meaningful contribution yet.

[milkshake]

"Reads" on day one are less accurate than random chance.

In addition to Sleepless Assassin, I would also be happy lynching someone who hasn't participated yet. That fits my criteria well, too.

[milkshake]

Not just _I_ would be happy with it. Everyone should get on board. If we allow people to sit around because they don't like participating in bandwagons, that's exactly what scum will do when there is a bandwagon on their partner. And they will do so with impunity.

[Sleepless Assassin]

"Reads" on day one are less accurate than random chance.

Oh. You're one of those. You and I aren't going to work very well together this game, so hopefully you are scum lol

[MisaTange]

Don't confuse playstyle with scummy behavior, as much as I really disagree with milkshake's comment as well :p

[MisaTange]

Ah, sorry about the misunderstanding

Interesting uhh.

Say I am today's lynch. Who is scum then on the world I flip town?

P-Edit: The term I was looking for was "inductively weak", not fallacy. i.e. the concept that you don't random lynch because its probability is less than 50%.

can you ebwop 7 hours later bc i just realized just now that it needed clarification >_>

[Sleepless Assassin]

Don't confuse playstyle with scummy behavior, as much as I really disagree with milkshake's comment as well :p

Oh, I know. I'm actually townreading him right now.

[ArcAngel9]

VOTE COUNT - 1.2

milkshake -

Pine

Tyler the Creator -

Lil Uzi Vert,

MisaTange -

Sleepless Assassin,

Lil Uzi Vert -

ThinkBig -

Arnold Schwarzenegger -

Sleepless Assassin -

, MisaTange, milkshake

Pine -

Arnold Schwarzenegger

Kop -

Not Voting

Spade_Ace, ThinkBig ,Kop

With 9 alive it takes 5 for a lynch and 4 for no lynch.
Day 1 ends in (expired on 2016-12-08 06:46:00)

[/b][/color]

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Honestly this game is just weird in general. I've given my thoughts and opinions on the majority of what's went down and now it just feels like I'm reanalyzing in hopes I'm somehow convinced on the cases that's been presented.

At this point I'm just going to sheep Milkshake and hope for the best.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: SA

That's L-2

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Oh I forgot TB was in this game.

[Spade_Ace]

The main thing that has happened so far is SA's post 53 and the interaction it generated. I liked SA's style of scumhunting (analyzing each sentence and deducing possible intentions). But his conclusions seemed, quick, far fetched and a bit paranoid. Misa's "interesting exchange" comment was at the most a means of applying pressure on players at RVS.

@pine, I disagree with you at multiple places. One, I don't think scum (SA) would be eager to "fabricate reasoning" so early in the game. Two, how are you so confident SA-Misa can't be Town vs Town? Just because their initial arguments sound "contrived and forced", is that enough to rule out that possibility? Three, I doubt whether bussing and thereby attracting maximum attention is a good strategy for a scumteam, esp in a game that revolves around Tracker and Watcher. Fourth, "undue defensiveness" is a scumtell only with experienced players. There are times when newbie players get flustered and defensive when they feel that the pressure on them is unjust and they start attacking the player who applied the pressure.

@milkshake I don't understand why "pro-lynching" is the best stance. What if the person you bring to L-1 is a PR? What do we gain with a PR claim on day 1? I understand why and how a pressure wagon works, but random wagons serve no purpose according to me and I don't like the one being built on SA to be honest. The wagon would have served its purpose better on players who haven't contributed much like Kop and ThinkBig. Your, "i recommend everyone board on the wagon" comment is something scum would probably not say, I guess.

VOTE: ThinkBig
You said you would post an analysis and then didn't do it. But you had the time to welcome me. (thanks for the welcome btw )

[ThinkBig]

@Spade - I had some issues that came up IRL. Will try to get them in tomorrow. Sorry guys!

[milkshake]

Three points for Space_Ade:

1. I agree that a wagon on Kop or ThinkBig would be even better than the one on Sleepless Assassin. However, those players had no votes at the time, whereas Sleepless Assassin had 2. Now, yours is the only vote on Kop or ThinkBig, and Sleepless Assassin is at L-2. So it's a practical matter.

2. The risk of bringing a town power role to L-1 is just one we have to take. The alternative is stagnation.

3. As for "pro-lynching" not being the best stance, I really don't see how it could not be unless you are advocating a no-lynch? A no-lynch is something I would consider entertaining if you presented me with a numerical argument.

[milkshake]

(Of course if we did no lynch we would have to do two no lynches! One no lynch is factually horrible. The wiki demonstrates why: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... rs,_Part_1 )

[Pine]

No.

No, fuck off.

Take your moronic numbers and go.

Everything in those infantile percentages presumes randomness in the results, which is NOT factual. The results of games are not based on odds or calculations; if they were, it wouldn't be Mafia, it would be an Excel spreadsheet. Anything based on that sort of tripe would have Town subsume its agency to the will of fate, and allow only the Mafia a free hand to make changes. Why is it bullshit? Because it presumes that the Mafia are killing randomly.

They don't.

They kill threats to themselves, they kill active and influential Town, they target suspected Town PRs, and they let live people they think are easy to manipulate. None of that is factored into those odds, and calculations which ignore major variables are just bad science.

Fuck off with your bad science.

Unvote Milkshake
Vote Milkshake

Because that deserves to be voted all by itself.

/rant

[Pine]

[quote=Your stupid article]All are basic games, with Mafia and Townies only, starting with Night and assuming random lynchings and night kills. The numbers probably do not reflect what the actual outcome would be if real games were played, as they don't account for the Mafia giving themselves away through bad logic.[/quote]
I mean, even the author here tells you that those numbers are not to be taken seriously. It was clearly a thought exercise, or meant as a guide to trying to balance games from a modding perspective.
[quote=That thing again]Only games with probabilities between 30% and 70% are included (except for 5 players, where 25% is the closest to 50%).[/quote]
They even admit to fudging their numbers! How are you not only taking that seriously, but apparently as word of God?

It doesn't even include percentages for 7 Town/2 Mafia. It isn't valid for this game!

Fuck off. Fuck off for real.

[Pine]

Quote fail

Criticism remains valid.

[MisaTange]

(Of course if we did no lynch we would have to do two no lynches! One no lynch is factually horrible. The wiki demonstrates why: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... rs,_Part_1 )

I think you just played yourself because the smaller games statistically favor even numbers if you take that article as word of God.

Even though I completely agree with Pine in 146.