Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Dierfire]

All right, here I go!

I'm reading culted as Town. The vote for Secret Agent Jin in 41 and the reasoning given in 62 indicate an attempt to read alignment (is paying attention to why Secret Agent Jin is asking certain questions), and 57 looks like a good attempt to break up a fight between two players that culted reads as Town and focus on Secret Agent Jin instead.

CloudKicker and MiniDeathStar also both seem Town to me. My opinion of CloudKicker is mostly anchored in the "Town slip" business (mistaking the number of players in the game); I find it relatively unlikely that CloudKicker decides to fake this. I think that I have a good question that will help me be certain. My opinion of MiniDeathStar is mostly anchored in 154 and 155 (reconsidering the read on CloudKicker when many players seemed inclined to agree with MiniDeathStar rather than CloudKicker means forfeiting an easy opportunity to be on the "right" side--that is, the popular side--of an argument with a Town player unless both are Mafia, and I think that CloudKicker is unlikely to display such hostility to MiniDeathStar at this stage in the game if both are Mafia).

I'm undecided on Secret Agent Jin and have not much useful to say there at this time. My default would be to follow culted.

Flubbernugget is showing evidence of paying attention to details (75 looking at the VC, 135 paying attention to the reads that massive gives). Ordinarily I consider these things to indicate Town alignment and effort to solve the game; in this case I have a vague feeling that they don't conform to my previous experience with Flubbernugget as Town, so I will check that at some point to be certain.

I'm agreeing with Aj the Epic in 178 that the vote from Io in 166 doesn't seem to have a good reason for the vote. Also of importance to me is that the other major read that Io seems to have is that CloudKicker is Town, but she fails to make a meaningful attempt to interpret votes on that wagon (in particular, in 87 she declines to cast a vote despite having reasons to be suspicious of -Grey- and Kairal that are, as best as I can see,

stronger

than her reason for voting for Aj the Epic).

That's it for my first pass.

UNVOTE: CloudKicker
VOTE: Io

[Dierfire]

@CloudKicker

I'm wondering what sorts of reactions you usually see between Mafia players D1 in your previous experience. Specifically, how often do you see each of these scenarios?

1. Mafia players pretend to suspect each other early on but drop the act when sufficient distance is created.
2. Mafia players pretend to suspect each other early on and maintain that pretense.
3. Mafia players communicate behind the scenes to coordinate a lynch on a Town player.
4. Mafia players largely ignore each other and try not to vote as a team.

[Dierfire]

@Secret Agent Jin (and @Kairal to a lesser extent)

Thanks for the words of welcome!

[HellloooNewman]

First of all....



Seriously, I miss a day and come back to pages upon pages of definitions, and Cloud losing his mind over MDS. Damn.

To reply to what was asked of me:

Man, that Cloud/MDS exchange was a lot to absorb first thing after waking up.

Unvote Culted
Vote CloudKicker

You claim scum, I will vote you without hesitation. Not to mention the overly forced "TOWNSLIP!! I MADE A TOWNSLIP GUYS!!! HEY, DIDJA SEE MY TOWNSLIP?!?"

Like i said, dont use it to read me and claiming scum doesnt make me scum yknow

''i dont believe the townslip, hes scum and forced a townslip '' incoming

That was for the kind of you Helllloooo

You do not get to tell me what to use, or not to use, when reading for scum.

FYI, I don't think you're scum for the slip....I think you're scum for driving the point into the ground so hard that it probably popped through to the other side.

You claim scum, I will vote you without hesitation. Not to mention the overly forced "TOWNSLIP!! I MADE A TOWNSLIP GUYS!!! HEY, DIDJA SEE MY TOWNSLIP?!?"

Is it important the order in which these things happened?[/quote]

Not at all. Those are two independent things that both look scummy to me.


I see that most people feel Cloud to be town. That's fine, but nothing has occurred to change my mind. In fact, the way he's bullying his way around convinces me even more that he's scum.

I know I haven't played here in years, and all my recent Mafia playing has come in places that are very different from here. So my perspective is likely to be very different from the rest of yours. Someone explain to me why he is town?

[CloudKicker]

cubic is ribic or aj

[CloudKicker]

rubic*

[CloudKicker]

First of all....



Seriously, I miss a day and come back to pages upon pages of definitions, and Cloud losing his mind over MDS. Damn.

To reply to what was asked of me:

Man, that Cloud/MDS exchange was a lot to absorb first thing after waking up.

Unvote Culted
Vote CloudKicker

You claim scum, I will vote you without hesitation. Not to mention the overly forced "TOWNSLIP!! I MADE A TOWNSLIP GUYS!!! HEY, DIDJA SEE MY TOWNSLIP?!?"

Like i said, dont use it to read me and claiming scum doesnt make me scum yknow

''i dont believe the townslip, hes scum and forced a townslip '' incoming

That was for the kind of you Helllloooo

You do not get to tell me what to use, or not to use, when reading for scum.

FYI, I don't think you're scum for the slip....I think you're scum for driving the point into the ground so hard that it probably popped through to the other side.

You claim scum, I will vote you without hesitation. Not to mention the overly forced "TOWNSLIP!! I MADE A TOWNSLIP GUYS!!! HEY, DIDJA SEE MY TOWNSLIP?!?"

Is it important the order in which these things happened?

Not at all. Those are two independent things that both look scummy to me.


I see that most people feel Cloud to be town. That's fine, but nothing has occurred to change my mind. In fact, the way he's bullying his way around convinces me even more that he's scum.

I know I haven't played here in years, and all my recent Mafia playing has come in places that are very different from here. So my perspective is likely to be very different from the rest of yours.

Someone explain to me why he is town?

[/quote]

The actual honest to truth answer to this is my role pm. The 2nd best answer is that im attracting way too much attention/antagonizing ppl and that my slip was genuine, mostly

[CloudKicker]

Someone explain to me why he is town?

The actual honest to truth answer to this is my role pm. The 2nd best answer is that im attracting way too much attention/antagonizing ppl and that my slip was genuine, mostly

[CloudKicker]

@CloudKicker

I'm wondering what sorts of reactions you usually see between Mafia players D1 in your previous experience. Specifically, how often do you see each of these scenarios?

1. Mafia players pretend to suspect each other early on but drop the act when sufficient distance is created.
2. Mafia players pretend to suspect each other early on and maintain that pretense.
3. Mafia players communicate behind the scenes to coordinate a lynch on a Town player.
4. Mafia players largely ignore each other and try not to vote as a team.

My experience is based off epicmafia where i played thousands of games, i have very little experience in forum mafia like 4-5 games. That being said, i have seen pretty much everything in those 4-5 games already about mvm interactions, the general established meta on mafiascum is that mafia wont hard buddy, correct me if im wrong. Now for my personal experience theres 2 things always common in any mvm interactions, those are:

1. A scum gain, in any interactions since its complete artifice (always true)
2. The behaviors does not match what is being said -> actions arent following words (great bussers does follow words with actions tho)

To answer your question:
1.Most likely, mafia likes to put other mafia in the null/need more content/unreadable/scummy but NAI or leaning something, they never want to get a full hard on read on any partner early on
2. most likely, good scum players are consistent, see 1.
3. When i fliped scum we roughly outed a lynch pool that would yield the most scumgain, id say some scumteam would try harder than others but try to push an agenda so ye
4.Ignore yes as in distancing, ignore no as in lone wolf survivor style

[CloudKicker]

Like, a fine staple exemple is if i was mafia with minideathstar. Our lil chat about the names and such and the whole antagonizing the first few pages could seem really fake, especially sicne mini's case on me was scummy and bad. But, if you dig deeper, me threatening to vote her if she ever kept calling me names, and me following on it, proves that this cannot be a mvm in any world. This will be further proven the more day passes that i wont unvote

[Kairal]

Cloud I don't want to misrepresent you. Just to be clear you believe the optimal play is to vote Mini regardless of anything that happens? Even though you believe Mafia will vote with you i.e. you don't think she's Mafia? You've had a chance to cool down now and I just want to be 100% you think this is a good idea.

[Flubbernugget]

I'm torn more after thinking about it because I could have done better to make it a two way street but I mostly just wanted some interaction with him because his initial posts did ping me and some kind of reaction outside of a handwave would have been great. Like if someone doesn't understand your thought process on why you did something it's literally making the game harder for people like me who have a strong thirst for clarification.

Do you think the continuation of the mindset jin has shown from early game, where he stayed very neutral with his limited engagement up until now with posts like 165 and 177 where he shows about the same interest level (about zero) with having a conversation about the game isn't a valid concern at this point?

Because it's less about my concerns with him now and more about how there's no attempt at all to figure anything out, not just me, when there isn't anything a player can think to ask someone. There's no curiosity.

I disagree with your first paragraph and agree with the other two

There's a difference between clarification and defending

That being said (as I've highlighted already) Saj is doing very little

[MiniDeathStar]

That being said (as I've highlighted already) Saj is doing very little

That's kind of part of his meta on Day 1.

[CloudKicker]

@swan its not a good idea nor optimal

[Kairal]

Cool. I'm glad that's sorted. That means the most pressing thing right now is... I think it's probably the 3 votes on AJ. I can't see a reason to vote him and none of Grey, Massive or Io have presented one. I don't think it's possible that all 3 are scum. That would be a bit too easy. I do think scum is hiding behind it. If you're town and you're voting AJ please explain why. If you're not town and you're voting AJ please vote for yourself :p

[MiniDeathStar]

I think Grey is town. He's voting Aj for good reasons (ISO him and you'll see). Massive and Io are people I already suspect independent on their votes on Aj.

[MiniDeathStar]

In fact, now I think I'm feeling slightly better about massive, so:

UNVOTE: massive

FOS: massive

VOTE: Io

[Kairal]

Good reasons? It seems like he thinks he might be cloud's scum buddy. But he thinks cloud is town. Not sure about that

[-Grey-]

That means the most pressing thing right now is... I think it's probably the 3 votes on AJ.

Why is that pressing? Why do you feel the need to lie about there being no reason to vote him?

You are faking an objection to his wagon, because my interaction with him clearly shows sufficient reason to vote him.

He accused me of confbiasing a scumread, which only town can do, while voting me.

When I called him out on it, instead of adjusting his read on me he only doubled down on his terrible logic.

Town is gonna be wrong. Comes with the territory of being the uninformed majority. But only scum has incentive to hang onto an illegitimate viewpoint because they can't afford to let town know the truth.

[Kairal]

Am I missing something? He accused you of confbiasing which only town or a neutral can do I guess sure. But it was pretty clear he meant arguing from a conclusion (because he thinks you're scum).

I guess it could be a scum slip... I'm not convinced he's scum yet but sure you've justified your vote.

UNVOTE: Grey

[Gamma Emerald]

@swan its not a good idea nor optimal

Please play to your win condition. It is very clear that you are not, and if you continue I will have to force-replace you.

[Kairal]

Cloud kicker

You bring up the fact that you have town slipped several times. Why do you think that couldn't have been faked by scum?

Everyone is so preoccupied about mafia faking slips and such

lol

lol, that guy is saying im scum for calling myself town and doing a play ''no scum would REALLY do'', make sens

his intent to accuse you of intentionally shitting up the thread with wifom rung clear to me

114 leads me to believe cloudkicker is more concerned with being self-congratulatory than actually trying to prove they are town

No. Just blunt.

Im not impressed with your hard on for ck

That last post is addressed to Jin for context. Flubber why do you go from a series of posts that seem pretty anti- ck to snapping at Jin for voting him? Is this because you no longer suspect CK? None of your posts seem to indicate that shift.

[Gamma Emerald]

Vote Count 1.06

2 - Io: Dierfire, MiniDeathStar
0 - Dierfire:
0 - HellloooNewman:
1 - MiniDeathStar: CloudKicker
0 - Kairal:
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
1 - Secret Agent Jin: culted
2 - CloudKicker: HellloooNewman, Secret Agent Jin
2 - -Grey-: I Am Innocent, Aj The Epic
0 - culted:
1 - massive: Flubbernugget
3 - Aj The Epic: -Grey-, Io, massive
0 -No Lynch:
Not voting: Kairal
culted FoSes Io, Dierfire, HellloooNewman, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, Flubbernugget, I am Innocent, Secret Agent Jin, CloudKicker, -Grey-, massive, and Aj The Epic
MiniDeathStar FoSes Flubbernugget, Io, and massive
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is (expired on 2016-12-19 23:30:00)

[Kairal]

Sure, if you're able to provide any reasoning behind it. Your current state of analysis is basically "I see you as scum because you are scum" and nothing more. You've adopted to tunnel on CK and apparently see me pointing out that NIA =/= Good play is 'coaching'. You've confirmbiased the game already.

You've confirmbiased the game already.

Only town can confbias. You are talking to me like you know I'm town even though you're voting for me.

That only strengthens my scumread on you.

Confbias might've been a wrong choice of wording. Tunneling would be the proper word.

However Confbias can absolutely come from scum (they know the roles from the getgo). It just isn't the correct word for what I asserted.

There's nothing to double down on. My semantic issue doesn't change my opinion, and you're trying to extrapolate shit that isn't there from it.

Ok I went back through AJ's ISO. These are the 3 posts discussing it. I'm a bit more sympathetic to Grey's argument now. It is weird that he specifically says confbias can come from scum then clarifies that he DOESN'T mean confbias he means tunneling (which... presumably only comes from town?). I dunno it's still semantics at heart but... yeah it's a bit weird.

I was actually looking for the post which convinced me he was town the first time. Basically he initially calls out CK for being anti-town but suggests we should move on. I see how there can be scum motivation for this. However when I say I think Cloud looks like flailing town AJ suggests that most experienced players are good enough at faking it that I shouldn't read much into it. That's effectively an attack on cloud rather than a defense. I initially read this as being contrary to scum motives (if they're partners why initially defend and then attack?) (if Aj is the scum and CK is town then surely CK is an easy mislynch so why defend in the first place?). Thinking it over a bit more I guess he could be hoping to get a mislynch without actually doing it himself, and then after the town flip he could be all "I told you he was prob town".

So yeah I dunno. Grey's case isn't as bad as I thought and the reason I was town reading him is pretty flimsy. Most of the rest of his posts are meta or semantics fluff that doesn't really help. That's all getting a bit suspicious. On the other hand I still think the other two votes on him without any reasoning feel a bit scummy.

I'm not quite ready to vote him yet. I want to hear more of why those other two did but I'm leaning towards it. Sorry Grey. It was unfair for me to dismiss your case as a bad one.

[Io]

@culted Why what? I wrote that in English did I not?

Also sure how could you possibly have thought I was scum reading Kai? I also just don't vote early outside of RVS, I'm pretty sure I said Grey had 2 posts only which is why I wouldn't have even voted him early.