Mini Normal 1857 (Game Over - Mafia Wins!)

[Impoetic]

Friendly reminder that Shannon didn't visit anyone last night according to LUV.

On the other hand, a lot of what raskolnikov said resonates with what I was thinking and/or brings to attention things I hadn't noticed. I don't think she's the *only* person who has those problems, though perhaps the only person who has all of them simultaneously. I know I still need to ISO people though

Rask, I take it you don't want to lynch either of the PR claims so far, right? Is that off reads or mechanics?

[JaeReed]

VC 2.14

gerryoat (3)

: ssbm_Kyouko, Sesq, shannon

shannon (2)

: Raskolnikov, drealmerz7

Titus (1)

: Lil Uzi Vert

Lil Uzi Vert (1)

: TTTT

Drone (1)

: Titus

NOT VOTING (3)

: Impoetic, gerryoat, Drone

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-12-22 01:30:00)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

During the night Transcend was killed.

He was…

Spoiler:

Welcome to Mini 1857, Transcend!
You are a

Town Jack of All Trades

.
Your abilities are:
1-Shot Bulletproof – You may activate this at night to make yourself impervious to one killing action that night.
1-Shot Jailkeeper – You may choose a player to jail at night, causing any actions by them or on them during that night phase to fail.
1-Shot Gunsmith – You may choose a player to investigate for a gun that night. Possible results are “Has a gun”, “Does not have a gun”, and “No result”.
You may activate only one ability per night.
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and at least one town player is still alive.
The game thread is here.
Please confirm by responding to this PM with your role and alignment.

Day 2 begins now!

OK, more questions about this role thing - -

If another PR dies, does Titus get their powers?

Transcend's death and use of the Bulletproof (if Titus is telling the truth and he actually used it) suggests a strongman (or ninja?). What are the chances that this was one shot?

Is Titus effectively a PR, if there's an active strongman? Like if she jailkept someone, would it stick?

With the gunsmith thing, given that it returns both mafia and cops as having guns, should we expect that we have a town cop?

Cops don't have guns, do they? They can't shoot anyone at least.

so no responses means we are doing this, right?
and lynching outside Titus/LUV/Drone means we all agree to kill shannon.

LUV has claimed 2-shot follower
Titus has claimed JOAT with the JK and GS abilities left
So LUV should agree to follow Titus and report what action she took
Titus will do whatever she wants and report the action and target to her neighbor (Drone)
day3 they all report out in this order:
LUV
Titus
Drone
if there discrepancies we have scum among them

problems with the plan:
scum knows who among them are town and so could possibly benefit (for ex. knowing town!LUV is targeting Titus)
It's possible scum will NK Titus or LUV if either is town (but maybe not given suspicion on both slots?)

why it might work:
scum!LUV has a 50% chance of guessing Titus' action
town!titus' action and target gets relayed to us even if she is NKed (unless drone is scum)

not sure about this
help me think through it

Doesn't work if Titus and LUV are both scum is what jumps out at me immediately when I read this. Also if they're both town and Titus decides to use JK tonight then mafia knows they can kill Titus N3 and we'll never get a result from her Gunsmith shot.

The only thing that's actually kind of odd is why shannon herself didn't push gerryoat d1 as cw.

Not odd if Gerry is the partner. I'd probably be okay with shannon after reading your wall for the first time, but I'll have to examine your points and make sure they're legit considering the slot you filled.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If we manage to lynch scum today though it means that there can't be 2 scum among those 3. Problem is, if there are 2 scum among those 3 we literally can't lynch scum today if we lynch outside of them. This train of thought seems circular and I don't think lynching outside of them today is optimal. We don't have to lynch from within them, it just doesn't make sense to me to eliminate them from our choices.

Sesq, Gerry, what're your takes on Raskol's case against shannon?

[Titus]

Any plan that depends on me living is a horrible plan.

[TTTT]

well if that's where we are then I want to lynch LUV

VOTE: LUV

HAMMEREED!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

well if that's where we are then I want to lynch LUV

VOTE: LUV

HAMMEREED!

Only scum quickhammers like that you're next buddy

[shannon]

This turned out to be giant. I'll spoiler most of it, please read the end bit if it's all you have time for. If you're voting me, you should at least take time to read the whole thing.

Spoiler:

Shannon what are your actual reads?
No setup speculation. No theories, no "if X happens Y should happen", none of that. Scumreads, stances, opinions.

This is the thing: I can't have reads independently theories on what's happening with the claims. And I don't think any of you have independent reads, either.

Yesterday, I scum read Transcend for lying. I didn't believe his crumbs, and it turned out I was right about his lie, but wrong about his alignment. I think I outright said that the reason I didn't want to hardcore wagon him was because if we lost him, we would be worse off than if we had ScumTranscend in our midst.

That's pretty much how I'm thinking today, *except* that we've got no prospect of getting useful info from the PRs (see below), which changes their lynchability.

Friendly reminder that Shannon didn't visit anyone last night according to LUV.

On the other hand, a lot of what raskolnikov said resonates with what I was thinking and/or brings to attention things I hadn't noticed. I don't think she's the *only* person who has those problems, though perhaps the only person who has all of them simultaneously. I know I still need to ISO people though

Rask, I take it you don't want to lynch either of the PR claims so far, right?

Is that off reads or mechanics?

Here's the thing about lynching our PR claims - The group has expressed independent reasons to scum read them, besides the claims. (That's why Titus ended up claiming). And my setup questions have revealed that we've no real means of getting useful or trustworthy info from either of them.

The problem we have is that the scum pool at the moment seems to be two PR claims, and me. So anyone you'd (I use that term generically) want the PRs to investigate is either another PR, or me. If you think two scum are in this group you can't trust the results and you might not get them anyway.

If LUV said again that I went nowhere, would you believe it? Given the scum read on him? And the one on me? Do you even believe his role claim? (What if he said Titus went nowhere?)

If Titus gave a gunsmith result on someone, would you believe it? What if she said

I

had no gun? Would you believe that or would it make us the scum team?

And then there's the fact that Titus is almost certainly dead, unless there's some protective PR we're not aware of. Even so, we've pretty much established that scum has a Strongman, so it's a moot point. TL;DR: She's going to give a result you don't trust, or not get to live to get a result.

I have been trying to establish whether lynching one of these two is a better option than waiting and seeing. That is the entire purpose of my questioning about setup. If there's any way we can guarantee that one of them lives to tell us a result, then we should not lynch them. If there's not, we might as well lynch one of them today.

The problem I've found is that if we wait and see, we still can't trust the result because they're somehow also the scum pool.

I think Town is mistaken about the scum pool and needs to look more widely.

If we manage to lynch scum today though it means that there can't be 2 scum among those 3. Problem is, if there are 2 scum among those 3 we literally can't lynch scum today if we lynch outside of them. This train of thought seems circular and I don't think lynching outside of them today is optimal. We don't have to lynch from within them, it just doesn't make sense to me to eliminate them from our choices.

Sesq, Gerry, what're your takes on Raskol's case against shannon?

If there are two scum among the three of us, then this is the Best Town Ever and deserves an award for efficiency. I think it's unlikely.

Options for the 'two of three are scum' theory, as accurately as I can see them:

Titus is town. LUV faked a result on me to try to get us both town read, and mucked it up royally. First by claiming at all when not under pressure, second by changing the claim when eventually pressured. He's going to have to fake a result again tonight, either on me (which doesn't make sense) or on someone else. Better hope he guesses their activity correctly.

I am town. LUV thinks I'm important enough to try to buddy by faking a result on me. Titus is fake claiming for town cred and is going to have to explain why she doesn't die tonight. Titus and LUV agreed on this strategy.

LUV is town. His result on me is genuine, and he really felt he might be lynched or NKed tonight, so he got it out early. I am scum but wasn't the one who made the kill. Titus made the kill. She's claimed to try to cover her ass, but going to have to explain if she lives tonight. She should have fake claimed something else and didn't have the foresight to do so.

Can you see how unrealistic these scenarios are?

My *personal* opinion is that there might be one, or 0, scum among the three of us, and we need to look at who has been slyly working to set up this whole 'group of three' thing. We have all been chasing our tails and trying to point the finger at the other guy, which I think is mistaken.

What happened to Drone? What happened to Gerry? Was anyone townreading Ironstove yesterday?

I don't have the answers but someone with more time than me can probably find them.

[shannon]

well if that's where we are then I want to lynch LUV

VOTE: LUV

HAMMEREED!

Only scum quickhammers like that you're next buddy

For anyone skimming, this is not a hammer

[Titus]

Shannon, what are your reads, what did you learn from wagoning me?

Ignoring me three times is a hanging offense. You're at 1.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ofc it wasn't a hammer there was a vc at the top of the page he was obviously looking for a reaction from LUV. Also the 3 people I'm talking about are the 3 involved in TTTT's plan: LUV, Drone, and Titus. Why pull yourself into this group? Looks nervous to me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: shannon

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Nice try TTTT!

Rask's case on Shannon is interesting at a glance, I'll have to sit down and read it tonight to see how I really feel about it.

[gerryoat]

The only reason you say this is because you didn't provide defense. admit your faults or expect to be frowned upon

i think you're town but have bad reads. sorry for being rude, i'm rude sometimes. but really, dont know how you can think me and rb are teamed. and my vote on lil uzi is logical, to the point where he had to change his claim.

[gerryoat]

hahaha Rask took shannon to town. I would rather vote Lil Uzi but I agree with that UZI, Titus should all out the reports.

1.) Luv follow Titus and tell us the report AND action.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

btw is anyone else in your neighborhood? or just Titus and Drone?

[TTTT]

this is odd conversation for twilight

[TTTT]

What?!?! LUV only had one vote?

Ok, I'm leaning town on both gerryBFF and shannon
Hurts to say those words

Everybody back aboard the LUVtrain!

[shannon]

Shannon, what are your reads, what did you learn from wagoning me?

Ignoring me three times is a hanging offense. You're at 1.

Don't be melodramatic.

I think you and LUV are both town. D7 town. SSBM town. Impoetic town. (The last two are my weakest two reads)

Scum within Gerry, Drone, TTTT, Rask.

[TTTT]

Sesq?

[Sesq]

Sesq, Gerry, what're your takes on Raskol's case against shannon?

Couldn't post. Snow. Good case though. This defense also looked really scummy, as if "if i was scum" was a replacement for "my strategy is". 1811 Enough for a vote. VOTE: shannon

[Sesq]

Crap, she's in L-2 now. Should have forseen that. Unvoting if put into L-1

[Titus]

Shannon, what are your reads, what did you learn from wagoning me?

Ignoring me three times is a hanging offense. You're at 1.

Don't be melodramatic.

I think you and LUV are both town. D7 town. SSBM town. Impoetic town. (The last two are my weakest two reads)

Scum within Gerry, Drone, TTTT, Rask.

Why on these?

What did you learn from wagoning me?

[Drone]

btw is anyone else in your neighborhood? or just Titus and Drone?

Only me and Titus.
By this point I would have outed it all.

VOTE: Sesq

I mostly agree with Shannon on the fact we're a little narrow minded and need to keep checking all other options.

Basically, I don't mind Shannon's FoS on me, it's not even shading.

Sesq vote worries me, that as an addition to her overall gameplay throughout the game.
Like, that's a lazy excuse to conveniently voting the easiest wagonable player. Unfortunately, I've been looking this, especially since I'm pretty certain you haven't really read Shannon's wall post.

Guys, keep track of D7.
Also ISO him, can you see what I see?

[Drone]

Crap, she's in L-2 now. Should have forseen that. Unvoting if put into L-1

How convenient.