Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Pine]

VOTE: Nero Cain

I haven't played with you in ages! How's things?

[Pine]

Why the fuck would you claim that right away? Has site meta regarding Masons changed while I was gone?

[Pine]

Hrm. Whatever. I think I'd prefer them used as a mid- to late-game surprise narrowing of the PoE pool. It's not exactly hard to crumb.

Eh, it's done now, but expect a discussion post-game

[Pine]

^Wtf is this shit

VOTE: Lapsa

[Pine]

Before this goes any farther... Pine please read my claim and read the player list. Thanks.

...



...

Shut up

My vote stays.

[Pine]

Alisae, tone down the juvinilia. More than being annoying, it will cause many people, myself included, to take nothing you say seriously. Not being taken seriously is anti-Town.

[Pine]

Titus...nah, you're okay.

PEdit: My vote's on Lapsa.

[Pine]

Must...resist...the cute...

Spoiler: kind of gross gif that the mod doesn't want to scroll past in the future

Spoilered. -C

[Pine]

Srsly though, can we play Mafia?

Moar Lapsa votes please.

[Pine]

Because it was a mock?

[Pine]

The speed of this game is annoying me. I'm way, way behind. Trying to catch up, but I'm going to dinner and Star Wars in an hour, so no guarantees

[Pine]

ah jeez, guys...
you're all so bloody ENGAGED in the game. Can't everyone just lurk the shit of it for a while lol

That's essentially what I'm doing. Trying to keep up but fuck this.

[Pine]

Shut the fuck up about winter, you whining crybabies.

I'm from Syracuse.

[Pine]

I have a free evening, so I'm starting a full read-through. Anticipate a major wallpost.

[Pine]

At this point I think I just need to treat this game as if I'm replacing in and go from here.

[Pine]

Okay, I'm not fully caught up with 80 pages of D1, but I'm current. Expect a lot more of your daily recommended Pine.

[Pine]

Mod:Did Cloud know his scumbuddies?

Yes.

Interesting. I wasn't expecting a straight answer to this. I think we can use this for some very effective PoE. Need to go through Cloudkicker's ISO.

I think a lot of nonsense is being made out of Sonia's clearly sarcastic comments.

This game moves too quickly to be fun. I swear to God, six pages (probably seven by the time I post this) in a few hours is insane. There are a lot of people in this thread who are doing a lot of talking and fuck all listening.

NO MORE VOTES please.

I want our constant stragglers to catch up.

Thank you. I absolutely despise playing catch-up, and it's absolutely the fault of people who post WAY too much. You genuinely do not need to comment on everyone's each and every thought.

[Pine]

Nah, I'm not reading all of that. I skimmed most of it, but I'm operating on my replacement MO now. Reading absolutely everything is likely to just get me to fall in line with one of the prevailing schools of thought already present; I'd rather start mostly fresh, without preconceptions. I've had a good deal of success with that as a replacement. Worry not, I'll go back and read anything that's important, like the vig claims and significant interactions, but I'd rather not be complacent. The top five posters in this thread account for 53% of its content, and the top ten account for more than 80%. There's a lot of room for scum to hide in obscurity, and I'd rather read the minority than the majority.

[Pine]

Literally impossible unless those three plus me are scum

ok, caught up and have calmed slightly.
I'll rescind my rage vote for now. His reason for voting Lapsa sounds OK. Plus, I really want him to be town. He has to be null I guess for a while. But seems more profitabke to concentrate on cloud kikers stuff.

UNVOTE

My run through of Cloudkicker's ISO suggests that he was attacking Gamma, Alisea, Nero and I pretty consistently. There were others, and a few he went back and forth on, but they seemed more a feature of his spazzy nature than serious attacks.

More important is how hard he defended Tywin. That's where my vote is going.

VOTE: Tywin

[Pine]

Pine do you think Cloud incriminated Kyouko?

Entirely inconclusive. CK was pretty neutral on them, but seemed to be buddying up in some posts. The buddying could be construed as trying to foster a Town ally, or it could be supporting a scum comrade, or any number of other things. So like I said, inconclusive.

Is there something in particular you'd like to point to that you think indicates otherwise? (genuine curiosity)

PEdit: I just went through Cloudkicker's ISO looking for references to Sonia, and concluded that she's not scum with CK. CK started out aggressive and attacking with her, then ended up giving her a blanket TR and supporting her in a couple of places. That reads to me like someone who is looking to push an attack, seeing it not working, then shifting gears to turn them into an ally. Given that Cloudkicker knew scums' identities, it rules her out too.

Personally, this gives me solid TRs on Gamma, Alisae (with the caveat that she is either Vig or SK), Nero, and Sonia, in addition to TRs on Titus and Cabd.

Primary scumread is Tywin, based mostly off of Cloudkicker's ISO, need to drill down on some more. Honestly, though, with so many quality Townreads, it makes PoE a lot easier.

[Pine]

Interesting. Why isn't that post flagging down SSM?

Which post in Cloudkicker'S ISO have you scumreading Tywin?

Any of a dozen or so where he's hard defending Tywin. If he's not CK's teammate, I could see him putting up a token defense for the "I was right" Towncred, but not going to the effort of actually derailing the wagon on him. Cloudkicker went to the mat for Tywin.

@Pine

Kyouko youre really underestimating what a traitor would to to indicates hes the traitor to their scumteam

Ehhh, not really. That's a general crumb to anyone's listening, SSBM just happened to be the one he was engaging at the time. In context of a larger conversation about Traitors which he (if memory serves) did not initiate, it's entirely NAI.

[Pine]

I know right, it's almost like I'm bad at this game.

Stop using this as an excuse. You are not in the newbie queue. It garners no sympathy and lets scum discredit you. Seasoned players can tell newbtown from newb scum a good percentage of the time. Sometimes they cannot. Learn from where you went wrong. Adapt.

If I see this, "I suck", "I am new", one more time, I will Gibbs smack you.

Pick a read. Disagree with me on it. Go ahead.

This.

[Pine]

Titus, can we be friends this game? I don't think we've ever had a game where we could be friends.

[Pine]

I would like to reserve the position of weird second cousin that you only see once every few years and are you're oddly attracted to.

[Pine]

Depends, kinfolk, is you after

my

inner redneck?

[Pine]

Knock knock.

Who's there?

The game.

The game who?

Get back to the fucking game. A couple of jokes were fun, but a page of them is the kind of distraction that led to an 84-page D1.

[Pine]

@Titus - You have my attention. Make (or link to) the case on SSM?

[Pine]

If you didn't I'm not sure why you'd CC. Like I know that you are arguing that there could be two vigs (I don't even think Sry claim was legit anyways) but if that's what you believed at the time then why CC? And if thats not what you believed at the time why wouldn't you think she is scum?

This is not "little to no reaction," Sonia. He's contesting the validity of the inno.

[Pine]

It sounds like she's pushing a scumread. How strange.

[Pine]

Too much to reply to while phoneposting from Xmas party. I will engage the tripe coming from Tyson and mozamis in a few hours

[Pine]

Bollocks, forgot the "Pine didnt know Cabd was joking about Masons thing", which seemed a pretty good town tell.
Pine back to town then I guess. Still, be good to get more from him.

Okay, ordinarily I just plain wouldn't comment on supposed Towntells regarding me, but I'm on an "educate new players" kick, and everything about this is terrible.

1) Mistaking the player list is NAI. It happens to be correct here, which is why I let it go, but if you'd said that about someone else I'd fight you on it. It is arguably evidence towards a read, but it's pretty weak sauce.

2) If someone Towntells on D1, they've Towntold. It doesn't get stale. It doesn't go away. If you make the decision that scum wouldn't do that, scum wouldn't do it. Period. That is, definitionally, the difference between a "tell" and a "read". A tell is a solid, reliable indicator. A read is a general feeling, which may change. All of this applies to scumtells, too. If someone slips and says something D1 that is irredeemably scummy, like not knowing that VTs are called "Adventurers" in this theme game, that doesn't get stale either. It doesn't matter that they acted Townish later.

End lesson. Continue to read me Town, as it is correct this game, just sharpen your game.

[Pine]

Never heard of you.

And I AM giving more. It isn't my fault that it's hard as balls to keep up with 84 pages of mostly drivel over four or five days. I'm current and providing input now. Also, bullshit that I'm not providing analysis, I've given solid reads on at least 1/3 of the player list just in the last 24 hours.

[Pine]

Okay, the quick version of recent posts. I have to finish making this pie, wrap some final gifts, drive to my parents' house, then get some shuteye.

Large posts from/regarding Tywin

- Tywin appears to be caught scum flailing here. The connections between him and Cloudkicker are just too much to ignore. Yes, I know, some of you are suggesting CK was trying to earn Towncred from a Tywin!Town flip, but I don't think so. CK went to the mat for Tywin. Solid scum strategy is to make a futile effort to save Town. Key word being

futile

. You protest, and make a Towncase, and offer an alternate wagon that isn't going to fly. CK was trying way too hard for real. He didn't argue against it, he fucking derailed the Tywin wagon. That screams traitor trying to protect partner. Obviously, they didn't get the message. In light of this, everything else Tywin said is bunk, and isn't worth the digital paper it's written on.

It sounds like she's pushing a scumread. How strange.

I honestly believe you're scum. You've added nothing to the game, was on the Lapsa lynch, push for my lynch (I know I'm town) without reason, doesn't think things through about what info my flip will give if it flips town (and it will), doesn't look at Syryana or Alisae both claiming vigi, and has tried to derail the Kyouko wagon by going back to the easy mislynch (me).

What have you done this game that is pro-town Pine? Also, why not question the counter claims at all? What case do you have on me as scum, and if I flip town, what info do you gain from it? Do you not think anything through as a general rule?

This post, directed at me, is a perfect example. He's throwing an absolutely trash case at me. On the Lapsa lynch? I was the first vote, jackass. You can't be opportunistic!scum if there was no wagon to jump on. Pushing you without reason? I've given my reasons thoroughly. You have to flip Town first in order to bother with implications of a Townflip. Discussing them prior to flip is pure WIFOM. Perhaps I didn't keep up with D1, but I'm here now, and adding plenty. Derailing the Kyouku wagon? What Kyouku wagon? I've asked for cases on them anyway, there's no deflection here but Tywin's. Why not question CCs? There aren't any. Syryana never hardclaimed. With Alisae's hardclaim, his talk of vigging is regarded as a jest unless he makes an actual counter. I think

everything

through, I just refuse to engage in WIFOM.

This is the kind of nonsense that makes me super hard for scum!Tywin's lynch.

Mozamis

- Our disagreement seems mostly resolved, but I'm a bit suspicious of him. In particular, the "I have Cabd as Town but not Titus" is suspicious as fuck, because that doesn't compute. It shows a serious lack of critical thinking, and suggests someone who's just making things up as they go. Don't get me wrong, I've made boneheaded errors like that as Town too, but it's cause for concern and further evaluation. Reasons for putting SSMB Kyouku in Townpile are super weak too. I don't see real!Town giving someone a pass that easy. Kneejerk desire to immediately lynch Vig/SK is also indicative of someone who fears an uncontrolled NK.

Regarding Vig/SK leashing

- Unless there is evidence to suggest otherwise, Alisae is either SK or Vig. IMO, neither leashing nor killing the SK/Vig out of hand is pro-Town. SK/Vig is arguably the biggest threat to the scumteam, until late game. She shouldn't make it to endgame, but neither do we end her shots. That said, leashing SK/Vig does not work in my experience. Yes, it essentially gives us two lynches, but it also allows scum to influence a second NK. Vig/SK, regardless of their own alignment, is anti-scum, and will shoot for their scum suspects. In short, fire away, Alisae. Know that your choices will be judged, and if you start shooting obvTown, you'll get lynched right away.

You draw parallel between piegirl and alisae?

Leash or lynch almost always gives flashbacks. Given the strongblock we appear to have, mandating the vig shoot a particular slot and lynching any deviation that doesn't hit scum. No excuses. Whatever we decide, we stick with.

Disagree, friend Titus. Also, in this context, it's spelled 'bloc'. Got that case on SSBM_Kyouku?

[Pine]

Yes, that is the short version. I have at various times had a reputation as a wallposter. I started a truly epic catchup wall around page 50, but by the time I got to 20, you guys were at page 70 or something. You were going faster than I could catch up.

[Pine]

That's not really a case.

[Pine]

I won't do anything stupid Pine.
Tho should I keep my potential targets to myself or share them?

Keep them to yourself. If scum have a roleblocker, they'll let you shoot if you're aiming for Town until you're aiming for scum, then roleblock you.

[Pine]

I won't do anything stupid Pine.
Tho should I keep my potential targets to myself or share them?

Share imo.

Bad friend. No slice of homemade apple pie.

FROM SCRATCH.

[Pine]

I still think sharing is a good idea but always include multiple names, including viable players you may not shoot. It will get reactions we can use. Even if scum block you, that too is a reaction.

This is a much better idea than either of the other options. I approve. Alisae, do this please.

[Pine]

Alisae, also shoot anyone who tries to control your shot (Titus above is kidding). Directing the vig/SK is classic scum.

[Pine]

So like this right?

Dear Santa. I want to vig the following people:
Kyouko
Tywin
Syr
Sonia
Nos
Nero
The Mod
Santa

With a list that long, we can't reasonably get real reactions. Three names would probably be most efficient. If scum appear on a short list, they'll be nervous. On a list that long, they won't be as worried.

PEdit: Maybe, Titus, but directing the Vig is a special thing. Suggesting Doc protect ObvTown Bob or whatever is one thing, controlling Vig is another.

[Pine]

I've had Kyouko pinned as scum since yesterday. I don't see this town motivation everyone else is talking about from that slot, it all looks calculated at best.

Show your work, please?

[Pine]

I've had Kyouko pinned as scum since yesterday. I don't see this town motivation everyone else is talking about from that slot, it all looks calculated at best.

Show your work, please?

Never mind. I took some of my own advice (from elsewhere) and CTRL+F'd your ISO. The later part of your case on Kyouko has some laudable consistency to it, but your initial scumread on him comes out of nowhere, and then sticks around until it finds a reason.

Better question: Convince me that this isn't just confbias.

[Pine]

Let's be clear, guy, I am not defending you. I don't have a Townread on you. I just don't have a scumread on you, and don't grok the cases of the people voting you. There's a world of difference between them.

If a good case appears, I'm entirely fine adding you to the scumpile. It's super easy in a game where this many Townreads, as the ratio of scum to Town in my nullpile is a lot higher than normal. The simple fact that a lot of people are SRing you, even if they don't really know why, isn't sunshine and daisies for you. Persons are smart, people as a whole are stupid, but small groups can sometimes have good instincts.

Essentially the same speech could be given for Nosferatu. Can someone give me a case on him that doesn't use the word "lurk" or any conjugation thereof?

[Pine]

Shrug. He's trying to capitalize on the outcome of your shot, not the intent. Intent is what matters when analyzing a Vig's shots.

[Pine]

Any answer would be a WIFOM situation. Is she saying 3-shot because she's a 3-shot Vig, or because she's an SK who will elect to stop shooting after that many nights for Towncred?

Answer anyway, Alisae, I'm just saying it's a question we inherently can't trust the answer to.

[Pine]

Cannot decide if Tywin's massive AtE is a scum tactic or genuine frustration. It reads as the latter, which makes me question my reads, but it's also classic scum to fake fatalism.

Need to weigh Tywin objectively again.

VOTE: Unvote for now.

[Pine]

See, this exchange is making me think Alisae is SK instead of Vig. SK is worried about other shooters, Vig is just part of Town.

Jury's still out though.

[Pine]

Experience matters. Newish people tend to act in certan predictable manners, while more experienced people tend to act in other manners.

If, for example, I were to come under slight suspicion, say 1-2 votes, and pitch a fit, throwing all kinds of AtE (Appeal to Emotion,) you'd probably be right to think me scum. If a guy coming from Town of Salem with one Newbie game here under his belt started doing the same, you might overlook it due to his inexperienced.

There's lots of stuff like that that can be assessed if you have an idea of the person's age, experience on site, and prior experience elsewhere.

[Pine]

Jesus Christ, Gamma, learn to Q+. Or at least open quotes in another tab, then copy pasta them into one post. This three-pages-of-just-Gamma is nonsense.

[Pine]

See, this exchange is making me think Alisae is SK instead of Vig. SK is worried about other shooters, Vig is just part of Town.

Jury's still out though.

Why not kill Syr based on this theory?

Because I haven't interacted with this alleged Syryana person. At all.

[Pine]

VOTE: Mozamis

I am content to let Alisae kill Tywin or one of her other suspects. Let's explore this scumfuck.

[Pine]

Titus and I have both made cases. Don't be lazy.

[Pine]

(I am well aware of the rather extreme hypocrisy of the above. Deal with it, fuckers.)

[Pine]

WTF?

Titus, if you are a Mason, please claim, do not claim your partner. If you are, that is a hardcore 100% no-takebacks scumslip from scum with a rolecop on the team.

[Pine]

Because if they know you're a Mason, it's because they were privy to an investigative result that revealed your role; Town rolecops aren't unknown, but they wouldn't be actively hunting your partner.

[Pine]

Ergo, they have info from a scum rolecop.

None of this is relevant if Kyouko is wrong.

[Pine]

Because if they know you're a Mason, it's because they were privy to an investigative result that revealed your role; Town rolecops aren't unknown, but they wouldn't be actively hunting your partner.

Not a mason.

If i scumread SSM, I would be pushing this further in hypotheticals.

Okay, disregard my last several posts then.

[Pine]

And while I would buy that as a Mason crumb, it isn't blatant or obvious. It's probably just an expression of frustration.

[Pine]

Kyouko actually comes out of this with Townpoints. I figure a scum who spotted what they thought was a Mason crumb would just kill said person and be done with it, rather than try to publicly solve the game. Or at least they'd point out the crumb to their buddies in private and not share the observation with Town.

[Pine]

This is the Townbloc I'm seeing right now, by the way:

==Upstanding Citizens==
Pine - My role PM says so.
Titus - Solid Townread, supported by consistent attacks by by Cloudkicker
Cabd - Solid Townread, supported by clearing Titus. No reason to clear her or even claim if scum.

==Probationary Members==
Sonia - Interactions with Cloudkicker. See post 2301 for details.
Kyouko - Recent developments, gamesolving
Nero - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker
Alisae - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker, probationary due to possible (even likely) status as SK.
Gamma - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker

That's 8/14 of the playerlist. Hunh. I've never been especially good at Townhunting, but this game seems like a bit of a perfect storm for it.

==Scumlist==
Tywin - I reread him, and the scumvibes are strong. The fact that he has pretty much gone to ground after the pressure lifted from him reinforces the notion that the initial scumread was sound, and all that AtE was an attempt to gain sympathy. Fire away, Alisae.
Mozamis - Explored elsewhere, mostly to do with disingenuous and inconsistent reads and justifications.

That leaves a remarkably small nullpile...

==Meh==
Elbirn & AJ - I keep getting these two mixed up. Neither has come off as Townish, but neither have they made any notable errors or slips. They could be scum playing it close to the vest or cautious Town. I don't know yet.
Nosferatu - Who? I looked this guy up, and his site-wide wordcount in the last ten days is smaller than this post alone. That suggests NAI lurker to me, and probably flake-bait. Complains about catching up difficulties. I can empathize with that to an extent, but come on, man. We're no longer at a 20-pages-a-day pace. Skim a bit. I won't shed any tears if he gets vigged, though I always prefer someone scummy to a lurker any day of the week.
Syryana - Again, who? I haven't interacted with this slot all game. I see a ton of fluff and nonsense in his ISO. Lots of memes, not a lot of scumhunting. Actually, he hasn't posted anywhere on site in a week.

@Mod: Can we get a replacement on Syryana? Or at least a fairly insistent prodding?

Okay, there are my thoughts. Some feedback and discussion would be appreciated. Apologies for multiposting, I know that makes me a hypocrite and I don't care.

[Pine]

While I am shamelessly multiposting at 6AM...

Note to Mod and other players: I'm might have somewhat limited access until after the first of the year. I think the place we're going has wifi, but I may be restricted to phoneposting.

[Pine]

Also, to the people who were bitching that I wasn't posting enough D1...

Eat me.

[Pine]

17 players means a standard of 4 scum, rarely any more or fewer. Traitor could take the place of one of those four, but is a bit of a liability. That means either 3+Traitor, likely with some extra scum power, or 4+Traitor, with tons of Town power and little or no scum power (daytalk might be sufficient). Site meta is leaning towards less scum power these days, so I'm guessing the former.

Stop with Mason spec. Outing the Masons is not pro-Town. Titus denied it anyway.

I'm actually leaning towards Alisae as SK. Mostly a gut feeling. Always hard to tell with Vig/SK claims, due to lack of associatives and similar MO. Maybe it's that she seems eager to please, too quick to trust others. Real!Vig would be less trusting, I think. Either way, I don't want her to make it to endgame.

"Going to ground" is a colloquial saying originating from when a hunted animal suddenly hides and goes still, hoping to evade pursuers with sudden camouflage and lack of motion. In a more modern context, it is often used in action movies when someone trying to evade the authorities hides in plain sight among the populace, trusting to anonymity. It applies to Tywin's behavior here.

[Pine]

Water is wet.

See? I can post obv af shit too. Maybe give us some original insight?

[Pine]

I concur, to a degree. We're approaching the limits of what we can accomplish with what we have.

I'm willing to lynch Tywin or Mozamis. Then we can see some flips.

[Pine]

That's the basis of my TR on Kyouko, yeah

[Pine]

Masons are generally not recruiting on this site, and I think a recruiting Mason

might

violate Normal strictures, though I'd have to read them more closely to be sure.

Like I said, I'm pretty sure Alisae is SK, but that's okay, as a good SK pretends they're a Vig and shoots for groupscum.

[Pine]

Okay, my point is that if scum spots what they suspect is a Mason crumb, they note it in their scumthread and put that person on the deathlist, because a late game Mason reveal can be absolutely devastating to their scumgame. I've seen it basically be the announcement of a pair of Innocent Children in near-LYLO, which fucks scum over and makes PoE a lot easier for Town. Masons spotted early on, before they claim, are priority targets.

What scum DON'T do is announce their suspicions and initiate a discussion about possible partners in the thread. That's gamesolving, which is a Town trait.

[Pine]

Moxamis Tywin Nos Nero

These need to die


*back to lurking*

Cloud was attacking Nero pretty regularly. That rules him out as far as I'm concerned.

[Pine]

Loli in this case means I don't wanna shoot you. If you're a loli, that's a good thing. Because I love lolis.
AKA it means your town.

Yup. Serial Killer. Town vig ain't this cavalier.

[Pine]

AJ has certainly gotten stinkier lately

@Titus and Cabd: I'm telling you, go read Cloudkicker's ISO. I think it vindicates Nero.

[Pine]

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and

I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

sounds bogus

Anyway, nero cain what do you think of tywin/alisae/titus trifecta

I think there's also the possibility of Elbirn wich would mean one of tywin/alisae is wrong but otherwise I can see it.

You didnt really answer my question i was wondering why do you think of the interactions since you hard tr titus, do you think tywin is scum, that alisea is scum for buddying etc yada

Nero, whyd you forget to list me ?

This suggests an adversarial relationship to me. For a Traitor who knows his scumbuddies, and is not trying to get killed by them, that would seem incredibly foolhardy.

[Pine]

The same goes for Gamma, by the way. He voted for Gamma at least once, and was adversarial with him. The consideration is denied AJ, because the vote on him was naked of reason, was followed by a compliment about AJ's posting, and a naked unvote.

[Pine]

The way mozamis is trying to intimidate others away from his wagon makes my hardon for his lynch attain the rigidity of a cast iron poker.

[Pine]

I could maybe lynch AJ tomorrow. The connection to Cloudkicker gets more damning the more I consider it

[Pine]

Really? The anyone but me route?

[Pine]

Psh fuck off dancing Jesus

[Pine]

The fact that you keep belittling my case against you as OMGUS doesn't help you, Moz. If you actually think that, you're either incredibly self-involved or not reading

[Pine]

VOTE: Tywin

[Pine]

None of that makes any damn sense.

Tywin is still scum for the same reasons he always was. Cloudkicker went to the mat for him, and we have mod confirmation that he knew his scumbuddies. CK would not have put it all on the line for Town, it would have been antiwincon.

[Pine]

Why in the absolute fuck are you people outing the Mason. Masons are better revealed later, as a weapon against scum. I mean, yeah, Syryana was literally the only person it could possibly be (everyone else was either attacked or was attacked by Moz) but there's a chance scum didn't do their homework.

Gah. I don't mind site meta changing, but I do mind when it's in a stupid direction. Like I told Cabd page 1, we're going to have a discussion of Masons post-game. I'll be breaking out the extra pointy vocabulary.

End rant, back to game.

PE: Phoneposting or I'd quote where Tywin was ruled out. If we're outing the Mason, don't be an ignoramus about it.

[Pine]

Tywin scum? He seems to love asking lots of questions. And setting up Cloud - obvious mislynch bait. I mean, sure my immediate response to Clouds first post was : oh, fuck this, let's lynch him, because grammatically it's painful shit. But easy or difficulut to read has nothing to do with town or scum.
I'll keep my vote on Alea for now but may well change to Tywin when i finish my catch up.

OK, caught up.

Town: Me, Sonia, Cloud.
Prob town: SSBm, ELbirn. Pine

Null: Cabd, AJ, Uzi, Nero, Gamma, Transcend, Nosferatu

Pos scum: Twin, Lapsa, Alisea

Scum: Titus.

UNVOTE

VOTE TITUS

That's just within the first 31 posts in his ISO.

[Pine]

VOTE TYWIN

Verbose scum. Unacceptable.

Ugh. I meant this one, not the Titus vote. Stupid phone. Stupid quote+ button. Stupid players with visually-similar names

[Pine]

Not that I recall, but I could be wrong.

Hey, now that we've decided that no one is certain, let's abandon the issue of identifying the Mason, agree that Alisae doesn't shoot the possible choices, and let them claim late game? Cool? Awesome. Stfu about the Mason.

[Pine]

Actually, it kind of was. Nos didn't do anything overtly scummy, he just lurked a lot. That makes him the province of Vigilantes. I'll be pointing to this game as prime evidence of that axiom in the future.

[Pine]

Well, not a shocker, just not as obvious as you're trying to make it sound, Sonia.

[Pine]

No one did. I'm just saying that you're acting like he was obvscum, and I'm saying he never gave enough to form any kind of opinion on. That's why Mod gave us Vig/SKs.

PEdit: Huzzah!

[Pine]

We can do Nero tomorrow, or Alisae can do him tonight. He's still a null read based on lurking, while Tywin is superobvscum. If we can lynch him today, that puts us within striking distance of a Town win.

[Pine]

Tywin is still alive?

Yawn.

[Pine]

Alisae, what's your vig letter to Santa?

[Pine]

Why in the fuck is Tywin still cluttering this thread?

Doublevote Tywin

Kbai.

[Pine]

why did everyone quick vote tywin

Tywin has been very scummy all on his own. Just today I've seen some of the more elaborate AtEs I've seen on this site from him and some pretty hardcore misrep. Much more important, however, and what led us to this point, is analysis of Cliudkicker's reads and actions. Cloudkicker flipped Traitor, and mod confirmed that he knew the scum team. We've been mining that for reads since his flip. Tywin stands out in CK's ISO because CK defended him pretty hardcore. Not to the degree that you'd normally see from scum looking for Towncred after a flip - the objective there is to defend the Townie, but ultimately fail to save them. CK absolutely went to the map to save Tywin, completely derailing the wagon on him in favor of a Townie. Dat scum bro.

I'm not actually in a big rush to end the day, but lynching Tywinscum is so blatant and obvious a move that it's frustrating that the wagons on him never seem to deliver.

Alisae is probably SK, but we're letting her live for now because she's shooting scum and is partially leashed. Check my ISO for more detailed analysis of Cloudkicker's ISO and a comprehensive Townbloc.

PEdit: It's not a real double vote. Just bored and frustrated.

[Pine]

...Are you actually trying to intimidate me, Alisae? I mean, you practically just said "Dat's a pretty swell Town youse gots dere. Be a shame if somefing were ta happen to it."

[Pine]

Don't get me wrong, it's kind of adorable, just horribly ineffective.

[Pine]

Yeah okay, Alisae is basically saying that she's going to shoot anyone who is cautious about whether she's an SK or Vig. That means she ain't leashed at all. She'll go through the Town as she wants, until she gets rid of anyone who's a threat...to her.

We can lynch Tywin whenever we want. I'd like to shake this tree while we still have people with brains to do the shaking.

VOTE: Alisae

[Pine]

Pine, I am not lynching Alisae if she shoots scum the night before. You would be wise to adopt this.

UNVOTE:

I trust Titus. I may be overreacting, but I've been fooled by Vig/SKs before. Alisae intimidating people away from questioning her is extremely sketchy, but it can wait until we've eliminated more of the scumteam.

Vote will go back on Tywin when we've heard more from the people who've been absent.

[Pine]

Conclusion: Scum avoided Lapsa wagon because they thought he was traitor. Scum voted mozamis knowing he was town (duh). Players on mozamis but not on Lapsa are more suspicious. [Aj, Nero, Elbirn]

I would include Pine in there as well. It could be likely that he never saw the Traitor crumb since he was struggling to catch up most of day 1.

What Traitor crumb? Lapsa wasn't a traitor, ergo, there WAS no crumb.

[Pine]

All of which are irrelevant.

[Pine]

Both.

[Pine]

I am temporarily V/LA. Very limited access next 24ish hours. Really it started today, but I thought I could handle it. I was wrong, with the pace of this and other obligations. This post is being made sitewide.

[Pine]

Back home from my thing the last two days, but it's 430 AM, and I don't have an hour to meaningfully engage this thread. I'll be here in the morning.

[Pine]

I'm working to catch up. Will probably finish in a couple of hours, at which point I'll have a wallpost. I'll try to be concise.

[Pine]

I wasn't town reading Gamma either so

vote:Gamma

pls don't listen to an OMGUSing Titus.

Okay, admittedly I'm only half paying attention these days, and planning on catching up at night, but this vote was fucking horseshit.

VOTE: Nero

[Pine]

^This is also kind of horseshit. VCA with red-colored names before they flip? Fuck off. I mean, I agree about Tywin, but fuck off.

[Pine]

Yeah, but doing analysis without flips is horseshit. You're still assuming unproven shit. It's...not a logical fallacy, exactly, but it's kind of similar? Terminology is escaping me at 3 AM. Hence why I called it horseshit.

[Pine]

Pine. Do you have ANY Thoughts about what has been going on?

And what are your reads?

I've actually been pretty upfront about my reads, and they haven't changed much, despite how much you people are vomiting into this thread. Cloudkicker's ISO analysis provided a wealth of information, much of which you've largely ignored, that I'm standing by. Let's go back to this post:

This is the Townbloc I'm seeing right now, by the way:

==Upstanding Citizens==
Pine - My role PM says so.
Titus - Solid Townread, supported by consistent attacks by by Cloudkicker
Cabd - Solid Townread, supported by clearing Titus. No reason to clear her or even claim if scum.

==Probationary Members==
Sonia - Interactions with Cloudkicker. See post 2301 for details.
Kyouko - Recent developments, gamesolving
Nero - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker
Alisae - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker, probationary due to possible (even likely) status as SK.
Gamma - Attacked consistently by Cloudkicker

That's 8/14 of the playerlist. Hunh. I've never been especially good at Townhunting, but this game seems like a bit of a perfect storm for it.

==Scumlist==
Tywin - I reread him, and the scumvibes are strong. The fact that he has pretty much gone to ground after the pressure lifted from him reinforces the notion that the initial scumread was sound, and all that AtE was an attempt to gain sympathy. Fire away, Alisae.
Mozamis - Explored elsewhere, mostly to do with disingenuous and inconsistent reads and justifications.

That leaves a remarkably small nullpile...

==Meh==
Elbirn & AJ - I keep getting these two mixed up. Neither has come off as Townish, but neither have they made any notable errors or slips. They could be scum playing it close to the vest or cautious Town. I don't know yet.
Nosferatu - Who? I looked this guy up, and his site-wide wordcount in the last ten days is smaller than this post alone. That suggests NAI lurker to me, and probably flake-bait. Complains about catching up difficulties. I can empathize with that to an extent, but come on, man. We're no longer at a 20-pages-a-day pace. Skim a bit. I won't shed any tears if he gets vigged, though I always prefer someone scummy to a lurker any day of the week.
Syryana - Again, who? I haven't interacted with this slot all game. I see a ton of fluff and nonsense in his ISO. Lots of memes, not a lot of scumhunting. Actually, he hasn't posted anywhere on site in a week.

@Mod: Can we get a replacement on Syryana? Or at least a fairly insistent prodding?

Okay, there are my thoughts. Some feedback and discussion would be appreciated. Apologies for multiposting, I know that makes me a hypocrite and I don't care.

So there's the foundation to work from. Since posting this, we lost Cabd, Nos, and Mozamis, and Syryana was replaced by MasonGerry.

I'd like to remind you that I caught what I think is a Towntell from Kyouko, here:

Kyouko actually comes out of this with Townpoints. I figure a scum who spotted what they thought was a Mason crumb would just kill said person and be done with it, rather than try to publicly solve the game. Or at least they'd point out the crumb to their buddies in private and not share the observation with Town.

Other changes: Nero is looking scummier to me, especially with that move on Gamma. Gamma has moved down to nullish. Both of the TRs on them from Cloudkicker's ISO were pretty weak, as he was mostly just badmouthing Nero without voting, and voted Gamma without much conviction, only to hop off without much reason. Alisae...fuck, I don't know. If you're Vig, you'll get killed before too long. If you're nonBP SK, same. If you're alive near endgame, then we can afford to look at you again. Mostly, I find your playstyle repellent, and your reasoning childish. But whatever. Elbirn and AJ are still struggling to make a lasting impression on me, but what I've seen looks generally Townish. They deserve a reread of their ISOs.

Seeing the VC, I'd prefer Tywin. I'm more certain of him.

VOTE: Tywin

[Pine]

I'm willing to chalk it up to a "this game" problem, and give you a fresh slate elsewhere. W/e

Your reasons for TRing Tywin are stupid.

Do me a favor, and check Cloudkicker's ISO. Use CTRL+F and enter Tywin. Explain why Traitor Cloudkicker goes to the mat for Town!Tywin.

[Pine]

OMG D2 I WAS LOOKING FOR THIS SHIT BUT I COULD NEVER FIND IT

Titus is town, tywin is town, aj looks town, sonia is gut town with pro reads that are just like mine.

Sbm might be playing a great scumgame btw

, elbirn looks town enough,

gamma with the mason comment looks ridiculously town

Ehh, okay, I could see Gammascum

[Pine]

Here's the way I see it.
CK was doing town things and dropping intentional traitor tells to drop some paranoia in the town. Whenever he got lynched or got killed in this case, it would make some of his TRs look really bad and some of his SRs look really good.
Sometimes with CK the way I see it you have to look at the bigger picture, and sometime you have to take things at face value. Like for example when he directly told Kyouko that traitors want to make themselves look obvious for their scumteam, and then votes Lapsa, or when he basicly claimed he was part of the mafia when he was fucking around with his signature. Him voting Lapsa and him saying that Traitors want to make themselves look obvious to their scumteam is basicly him claiming traitor because it was a counter claim to Lapsa's traitor.
CK give a TR on Titus, a TR on AJ. A TR on Tywin. These are all the people that Cloudie hoped we mislynch. Too bad we cleared Titus.
He gives Kyouko a scumread. A person we hoped we could dismiss as town.
He gives Elbrin a TR. I don't get this one.
He gives Gamma a TR. I think this TR is the real scumread. Also it's the very last read mentioned in that string. People read from left to right, so naturally people will go look at the first few TRs and go "Oh thats Cloudie's scummates." Basicly he hoped the Gamma read would be ignored completely.

That's like...the opposite of the correct read. Everything you're saying presupposes that Cloudkicker knew he'd get killed early. He didn't. Planning for failure is not a productive strategy.

[Pine]

She's not a real newbie.

House, is that you?

And also, any scumteam that picks up on their Traitor's crumbs and kills him deserves to be lined up against a wall and shot. MAYBE getting a mislynch or two doesn't justify voluntarily lowering your scum/Town ratio

[Pine]

Nah, you've pretty much proven the point.

You're giving him way more evil genius credit than he's due.

[Pine]

Really? Because your reads are all over the damn place.

[Pine]

Uhh my snark won't be as effective now but yeah, alisae, your hypothesis there is basically that literally anyone in this game is scum, and I'm like "wowe so brave"

Not really. It's based on the thesis of "Did Cloudie intentionally scumtell.?"
I think he did.

And I say that is absolutely trash nonsense.

[Pine]

As I've stated, multiple times, your primary assertion doesn't make sense. You're saying that CK bussed buddies and TRed Townies, knowing he'd flip early, just to set up bad interpretations of his ISO. Doesn't make sense. It utterly fails Occam's Razor.

[Pine]

W/e

Your assumptions are unnecessarily convoluted, and therefore likely wrong.

[Pine]

So you think as scum I hammer my buddy without intent but if gamma's toiwn and i hammer without intent I'm also town?

That tracks, actually.

I'm TRing you, but that logic

does

work, if you don't have the reads I do.

[Pine]

wut

I want to know what the fuck is up with the error, but I feel like trying to guess is futile and counterproductive.

Okay, by my math, assuming 3 scum + Traitor, we're one off MYLO, though a lucky roleblock or Doctor could give us a reprieve. Time to stop dicking around.

VOTE: Tywin

[Pine]

Your OMGUS is showing

[Pine]

Is wanting the mason to claim today a bad idea or no?

It's fine. This is, frankly, exactly when Masons should claim. Late game, when having confTown narrows things considerably.

There are not five scum total. 4+NormalTraitor would never have passed review. Please curtail discussion of it, it's super unproductive.

Kind of laughable that Tywin insists that no one has ever made a case on him. Pretty sure half of the game has.

[Pine]

Sonia is unlikely due to Cloudkicker analysis, which is so far pretty accurate.

[Pine]

Done.

[Pine]

In fact, pretty much anyone you didn't just name can take a long walk off a short pier.

[Pine]

Gerryoat can live too.

[Pine]

And actually I think I'm mixing up Elbirn and AJ.

So never mind, I can't copy Titus's homework.

[Pine]

Pine do you think Cloud incriminated Kyouko?

Entirely inconclusive. CK was pretty neutral on them, but seemed to be buddying up in some posts. The buddying could be construed as trying to foster a Town ally, or it could be supporting a scum comrade, or any number of other things. So like I said, inconclusive.

Is there something in particular you'd like to point to that you think indicates otherwise? (genuine curiosity)

PEdit:

I just went through Cloudkicker's ISO looking for references to Sonia, and concluded that she's not scum with CK. CK started out aggressive and attacking with her, then ended up giving her a blanket TR and supporting her in a couple of places. That reads to me like someone who is looking to push an attack, seeing it not working, then shifting gears to turn them into an ally. Given that Cloudkicker knew scums' identities, it rules her out too.

Personally, this gives me solid TRs on Gamma, Alisae (with the caveat that she is either Vig or SK), Nero, and Sonia, in addition to TRs on Titus and Cabd.

Primary scumread is Tywin, based mostly off of Cloudkicker's ISO, need to drill down on some more. Honestly, though, with so many quality Townreads, it makes PoE a lot easier.

[Pine]

Seriously, analysis of the Traitor's ISO is clearly what will make or break this game. The guy knew the scum, but the scum didn't know him, and he was trying to make contact. It's the key to this whole thing. Notice how bloody HARD it has been to push on Tywin? No cooperation. See why Sonia, Gamma, and Nero* keep popping up? I'm pretty sure my scumpool is down to {Tywin, Elbirn, AJ}. They're pretty much the only people left not ruled out, and there's two scum in there.

My guess is Tywin and Elbirn, but it could be Tywin and AJ.

*My SR on Nero at the end of D3 completely forgot about the Cloudkicker analysis. It's subtle, but it's there. CK was trying to get him lynched on the same wavelength as his pushes on Gamma and Sonia - exploratory, testing to see if he could get a wagon started.

[Pine]

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and

I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

sounds bogus

This is the primary interaction I'm basing my interpretation on. This doesn't look like a "Hey I'm on your side" interaction. It's antagonistic. Remember, per Mod and the Normal guidelines, CK knew scum, but scum didn't know him. CK would have been trying to signal his identity to his compatriots, not harass them.

[Pine]

The role I think it would be, which is Bus Driver, would be scum sided.

Bus Drivers are non-Normal. Any redirection role is non-Normal.

And check out that super AtE by Tywin...that's at least the second time this game he's thrown up the fake white flag like that.

[Pine]

I could see Elbirn + Tywin.

[Pine]

Well, Elbirn, you said it yourself. Cloudkicker starts out with some pretty heavy attacks on Sonia, which should themselves disqualify her from the scumteam, and then when it isn't happening, he switches to buddying her and trying to pocket her. That's like, proof positive that she's Town. She's my third-strongest TR after Titus and Gerry, and that's just because they have PRs clearing them.

Shut up, Tywin. You keep diarrheaing out these wallposts that no one reads that all say the same thing, and a lot of them start with ad hominem attacks on me. I'm kind of done tolerating them. I've made a fairly comprehensive case against you, and if you can't muster the maturity to engage it, that's your problem. The AtE and ad hom is wearing thin.

[Pine]

Can we just lynch me already

so people like Pine/Elibrin can actually look for real scum in Lylo

? Jesus Christ, I'm sick of the pre-flip associations. It's flat out bad play. Go read some Mafia how-to guides or something. I sort of understand why you'd use Cloud/Nos' words to implicate me, but at this point, I'm tired of dealing with it. Just lynch me already, because none of your talk will be useful tomorrow when you see me flip town. Everything you're posting that has me in it becomes useless, so stop wasting your or my time and get it over with like you've all wanted since D1.

The ONLY reason I'm still alive at this point is because scum know you idiots will mislynch me, and they've known it since D1 when Titus started the whole shit show. It's been pissing me off forever now, and the only hope town had was in Alisae, whose obviously I wouldn't have ever NK'd if I was scum. She was the only one even semi-listening to anything I say. I actually think about the implications of who I NK when scum, so an Alisae NK from scum me would be completely the wrong play. The fact that none of you even analyze the NK's alone should be a red flag, but it is what it is. I can't make people stop their obvious conf biases and look elsewhere until I'm lynched and flip town, so stop wasting my time. I believe my mislynch is the best move for town at this point, because if Elibrin/Pine ARE town, then they'd lose the game without question if I survive til Lylo.

It's not up for debate anymore. The only chance town has to win at this point is to A) hope there are only 2 scum left, and B) Hope Elibrin/Pine are town, and C) lynch me so that there's a slight chance in these players reworking their absolutely idiotic reads due to me being out of the equation. That's how I see things, so honestly town, do yourselves a favor and lynch me if you don't believe Pine/Elibrin are scum. Their votes will lose the game in Lylo if they're town and I survive. I've been attached to every player in the game now by them, so there's no hope without my lynch. Otherwise, they need to go. That's the only other option. Either lynch me now or lynch them and hope they're scum, because town have no chance to win otherwise. This isn't a joke, and fuck your AtE coke-fueled posts Pine. Use that coke in Lylo to rethink everything after my flip.

I think the bolded is a bona fide scumslip. He tacitly acknowledges that both Elbirn and I are Town, because scum don't look for the real scum in LYLO.

Calling it: AJ + Tywin

Thank me later.

Now-confirmed Elbirn, would you prefer Tywin or AJ first? Personally, I'm actually toying with AJ, because if I'm wrong with my Cloudkicker analysis and PoE, I'd like to have Tywin continue to slip.

VOTE: AJ

[Pine]

Of course there's frustration. He got nailed on D2, but has been hanging around for days because this Town likes shiny things.

Titus, please comment on the scumslip I pointed out.

[Pine]

Can we just lynch me already

so people like Pine/Elibrin can actually look for real scum in Lylo

?

The bolded is the slip. It reveals that your scumread on me (I forget your position on Elbrin) is fake, because you're suggesting we're going to be doing real scumhunting in LYLO. If you had a real scumread, you wouldn't be thinking that.

[Pine]

A lot of me wants to say "fair enough" and lynch away, but I'm wondering if you're protecting a scum PR now.

[Pine]

I will not vote Sonia.

Tywin vote AJ. Please. I would rather vote scum today.

[Pine]

Okay I'm questioning the Sonia clear now

[Pine]

Wait hold on a sec. I need to ISO Sonia a bit. I've been giving her a pass for weeks now, and I need to see if it's held up.

It's not the hello, stop pretending it is, Sonia.

PEdit: "I am obvTown" is not what Town says. Even when they are. You don't see Gerry acting that way do you? Even Titus is more reserved than that

[Pine]

PEdit: "I am obvTown" is not what Town says. Even when they are. You don't see Gerry acting that way do you?

oh.. shit,.,

I lol'd

[Pine]

I am obv town

Hey.

Hey guy.

Maybe you should tell us all that I don't want to lynch you some more.

Despite the fact that I've been the biggest and most consistent proponent of a Tywin lynch all along.

Keep saying it.

Maybe it will sound like the truth eventually, despite the fact that your case on me is blatant, obvious OMGUS.

PEdit: Oh hey! A completely terrible vote from Sonia that occurred ONLY after I questioned my TR on her. Okay, I can see Sonia-Tywin now. Apologies to Elbirn and AJ

VOTE: Sonia

[Pine]

No.

My lynch is not the best lynch.

A scum lynch is the best lynch.

PEdit: It wasn't an all-Town lynch on Lapsa. Cloudkicker was on it. VCA is bullshit these days anyway, site scum meta is trending away from the "evenly balanced across wagons" model for EXACTLY this reason, so they can push mislynches late game off of VCA. We did it in Hunger Games just recently.

[Pine]

This is pretty classic 'stealth scum suddenly caught'.

Titus, get in on this.

PEdit: It's super amusing that Sonia keeps questioning the Mason.

[Pine]

This is pretty classic 'stealth scum suddenly caught'.

Titus, get in on this.

PEdit: It's super amusing that Sonia keeps questioning the Mason.

MOTHER FUCKA WHERE IS TJHIS MASON CLAIM?

A Mason exists.

Everyone but Gerry has denied it.

PoE from Mozamis's ISO decrees it to be Gerry.

Gerry has softclaimed it twice in the lat couple of hours.

The only reason for you to be this dense is if you're trying to insert doubt about him because you don't want to waste a NK on him.

PEdit: Scum who hammer their buddy for Towncred deserve to lose.

[Pine]

Tywin is obv town you blithering ignoramus

In no way, shape, or form. He's extremely obvious scum.

[Pine]

You're nowhere near hammer, but keep it up. The AtE is making my case for me.

[Pine]

can you stop being overdramatic and unvote? as i said, this has no weight in my read on you because i'm doing things poe now. nero is the optimal lynch today

Why? Scum are Tywin and Sonia. Lynch there.

[Pine]

Gerry, this is Tywin's only completed game on site. He was Town in it, and it's a Newbie.

[Pine]

PEdit: Scum who hammer their buddy for Towncred deserve to lose.

So what's scum-Tywin's angle here? Is it just pure ate hoping we back off? If I were scum-tywin doing what he's doing right now I feel like it'd be to prop up my buddy

He's been doing AtE flailing and desperate OMGUS since forever.

[Pine]

VOTE: Tywin

Alright, we're not being productive at this point. Let's get back on track with something we can all (mostly) agree on.

[Pine]

Yawn. Flail more Tywin.

Oh, and as for D1, stop acting like I was petulant and silent and avoided this game. D1 moved insanely fast, and I have difficulty keeping up at that speed. I've kept up just fine since then.

[Pine]

^Wtf even is this guy?

[Pine]

Scum team = Elibrin/Nero. Nero is the newscum. Elbrin's absolutely fake TR on Pine is scum budding the VI. That's my assessment now, because the only other option is that Nero is mentally challenged. That's an option, but I don't want to call him that myself. He can do that on his own. Post game will show which is which regardless. Enjoy

Wait I thought I was scum! Oh noes, don't call me a VI!

[Pine]

Holy crap, could you get more fake with the AtE? It isn't LYLO. A four-person team plus a robust Traitor would never have made it through Normal review. Especially not with the generally weak and conditional Town power we've seen. Get over yourself.

[Pine]

Gerry, I don't agree with your choices. I think it's Tywin + Sonia. Just because you're a Mason doesn't make your reasoning superior to mine.

[Pine]

Kind of despairing with this game, tbh. We've got a hung jury here, mostly because Titus and Gerry are digging their heels in.

[Pine]

For lots of people, being confirmed or even obv is boring. Hell, I find being Town at all boring. That's why I don't put in as much effort as I ought in games like this. I don't blame 'me too much. Too much glass in my house to throw stones.

And Titus isn't scum. I considered the notion of scumdoc, but she was obvTown before Cabd confirmed her, and we've already seen one false positive for our only robust investigator. A false negative wouldn't have passed Normal review.

[Pine]

Titus, you're going to have to justify your TR on Tywin for us to continue being friends.

[Pine]

Gerry, convince me about Nero. Cloudkicker analysis suggests Town.

[Pine]

Titus, you're going to have to justify your TR on Tywin for us to continue being friends.

[Pine]

Why did the game just stall to death

Send help

It's because we're at an impasse.

Four people want Tywin dead, four want him alive.
Four people want Nero dead, four want him alive.

Five are required for either.

[Pine]

The simple fact that Nero hasn't been hammered means he's scum.

You're welcome to flip me instead, but when I do flip town, Nero must go. The fact is that if we were both town, scum would hammer one of us without question. This being a tie makes it obvious.

So... Nero or me can go, but the other then needs to die. It's that simple. I'd also like Pine dead as well, so I'm cool with my lynch if we explicitly understand that Nero is dead, then Elibrin/Pine are chosen for the next lynch. AJ, you seem okay with the opposite, so if that's the case, fine. I am town, but if I have to play the game as if it's Lylo right now, I'll play it thinking Nero/Pine are scum, Elibrin is a VI, and the rest are town. If the lynch is me, then it needs to be expressly stated that Nero/Pine eat rope after I'm gone. I'll even vote myself to break the tie in that case. Bet Nero won't do that one, since he's obv scum.

Bolded is just blatantly false. There are half a dozen reasons why Town!Nero wouldn't be hammered, the most obvious is that both scum are on the wagon. Also possible is if one of the non-voters is scum, but has been standing by a Nero TR for long enough that they can't justify switching. Or maybe they're paranoid about getting suspected if they hammer him. Maybe they're afraid of VCA. These four are just off the top of my head; I'm sure I could come up with more and cleverer reasons if I thought about it for any length of time. I know that, for myself, I'm super paranoid as scum, and almost obsessively stick to my alleged reads. Not everyone is a complete neophyte.

[Pine]

I just really wanna see who is the VI in this game between Elibrin and Pine, or if they're both scum. It's one or the other really, but seeing as there's a tie with both wagons, that looks damning to my townie eyes. It really is common sense that scum won't hammer themselves, and if this was TvT, one of us would've been hammered already.

My flip would prove I'm town and Nero is scum

, and it would make Elibirn/Pine finally have to defend themselves for their scummy posts. I kinda see good things no matter which wagon gets hammered.

Also a completely false dichotomy.

[Pine]

[Pine]

5 maf would shock me. It doesn't make sense, and would never pass Normal review. They're pretty harsh when it comes to Normal balance.

[Pine]

Still Tywin. There is absolutely nothing to recommend him as Town, and a lot to say he's scum.

I don't think I believe your Doc claim, tbh. I don't see any reason to hold them back. Not fully decided yet though.

Alternatively, I'm a bit ambivalent on AJ, and Elbirn needs another look.

[Pine]

Roleblock would explain it, as would scum forgetting to send in the kill. It happens more than you might think, especially with only one scum left.

[Pine]

Well, I'm a roleblocker, but I targeted Sonia, so that doesn't actually solve our problem.

[Pine]

Full-claim: 3-shot Roleblocker, I targeted Tywin N2 and N3, Sonia N4. Forgetting to kill occurs to me because it's really the only option that explains things despite Sonia being blocked, and because I forgot to use my power N1.

[Pine]

See, that's exactly it. Your incredulity. It looks like you bussed Nero to set yourself up as obvTown.

I do suspect her, Elbirn. I switched to roleblocking her because roleblocking Tywin was having no effect.

[Pine]

Well then, roleblock is what stopped the NK.

VOTE: Sonia

[Pine]

Town/Scum seems balanced as far as recent site meta is concerned.

[Pine]

Titus, ffs. If you don't want to play this game productively, replace out.

We aren't friends anymore (in this game)

[Pine]

Odds are almost guaranteed only one scum left, and evidence points to Sonia.

And by the way, this is entirely balanced, from my experience with the Normal review team. They're leaning pretty heavily Townsided lately, because history suggests powered scum wreck Town.

[Pine]

The Nero lynch was lucky. Nero was playing a good game, and there was shit all reason for his lynch. There are two people here who are actually scummy, and you're lolTRing them for no reason I can see. The best I can tell, you rolled a die to decide your reads here.

[Pine]

Why the fuck would I lie at this point

[Pine]

Pine you're claiming 3 shot role blocker yes?

Yes. I forgot to use my power N1.

[Pine]

Alright, people of all stripes sniping at one another about play being bad or whatever needs to stop. It's completely negative, tacitly presumes yourself innocent of the same fault, and completely forgets the core premise of this game: deception and counter-deception. The whole point of the game is that your fellow players are not to be trusted, and the bulk of us are not in the informed minority. This game is DIFFICULT. Just because someone doesn't agree with you, or have the same perspective, doesn't make them bad at the game. In all likelihood, they're doing the best they can in good faith.

So knock it off. You know who you are, we know who you are, and it isn't acceptable.

[Pine]

It's why I'm voting Sonia.

[Pine]

Titus.

Excuse me, but shut the fuck up.

I have what amounts to a probable guilty.

[Pine]

Yes, I do.

[Pine]

Like holy shit you had more pr's? This was impossible for scum to win w/e

Score. My Towngame ain't dead.

[Pine]

Wasn't me. You seriously weren't Mason? I was sure I'd mathed out that you were the only possibility.

[Pine]

What in the actual fuck, Sonia.

Okay, I officially have no idea why there was no kill N4.

I'm not sure what the right play is here. Tywin may still be the right move, but I really don't like the way Elbirn has been behaving lately, either.

[Pine]

Scum-Pine no killed because it worked. He got sonia guarantee mislynched for it which was the same as getting 2 kills in a row. And he avoids suspicion for it, apparently, because "lol why would scum do that"

That's not actually how it works. Prior to the no kill, two mislynches were required. After it, three were needed. Your logic isn't logic.

[Pine]

It wasn't a free mislynch. Consider, if I'm scum, and I had made the decision you're referring to, I'd have willingly extended the game while also committed to making a claim that would mark me as a risky LYLO candidate.

If not for the no-kill, we'd be in LYLO right now. We aren't, because scum chose to no-kill. I don't know why they did that, but it was a stupid decision.

[Pine]

Negative utility roles is what balances all the Town power.

You're actually arguing against your case.

[Pine]

Why in the fuck would I no kill, then go out on a limb to fake a guilty.

[Pine]

So, to be clear Elbrin, your pool is Elbrin or Tywin?

Was that at me? Because it doesn't make sense at Elbirn.

And more or less, yes. You're confTown, and between AJ and Elbirn, I'm less comfortable with the latter. Tywin is really the more likely scumfuck, though.

[Pine]

To whit,
VOTE: Tywin

[Pine]

I was asking Elbrin for his scumpool

Under his theory, only you or Tywin could be scum. If town!Pine, then scum!Tywin and dumb Pine. If scum Pine, then scum Pine.

This, yeah. I guess pine could be dumb but I've thought higher of his play than that so far and I'd think that if he blocked someone, and then a mod error announced that someone died who shouldn't have, that he'd figure it out realquik and make tywin dead.

Pine, your response to this?

Actually, my impression from the mod error was that someone died who oughtn't have, such as Cephrir forgetting to apply the Bodyguard effect. My guess? Gerry bodyguarded Alisae and Cephrir flipped him, realizing after the fact that he should have flipped Gerry instead. With Alisae revealed, Cephrir consults with List Mod to see how to correct things, is advised to go ahead with flips as they are, and does so.

[Pine]

I assumed that someone who was supposed to survive was instead flipped. There was insufficient evidence for an allegation, as I was guessing there was a protective role in play. Besides, are you really suggesting that I didn't go hard for Tywin, who is the guy I blocked?

[Pine]

I was simply working my way through it. She was also claiming Doc, so I had to grok the implications. At the time I still had a big hard-on for Tywin, and was tired.

[Pine]

There were also other possibilities to consider, like the possibility of an intentional no-kill, and accidental no-kill, double-checking that I actually sent the block (I forget to take actions I fully intend to take sometimes, which made/makes me consider simple negligence as a possibility, especially as a no-kill is super anti-scum-wincon) etc.

This really isn't complicated. "Not decided" = "Not decided."

[Pine]

You're also quibbling over a 17 minute period of indecisiveness.

[Pine]

Sorry AJ I forgot. Town 3-Shot Roleblocker is the full title

[Pine]

Also, its sketchy af that Tywin suddenly has nothing to say. It makes me think he's hoping we rip into each other.

[Pine]

Tywin is the right choice here. Cloudkicker's ISO is still damning.

I could probably be convinced in the direction of 1 scum in {Tywin, Elbirn} and lynching both, though. We've got a ML to burn.

[Pine]

Reason being? I'm sorta drawing a similar conclusion but I want your reasons for this.

Be more specific?

[Pine]

How many times do I have to repeat this? ISO me for the full case.

The short version is that CK was a Traitor who knew his scumbuddies. D1, he hard defends Tywin, to the point of derailing wagons on him. Now, scum will happily defend Town if it looks like their lynch is inevitable, in the hopes of getting Towncred from the resulting flip. This doesn't happen if the flip fails to occur, though. Scum seeking to execute this strategy calibrate their defense to that it will be a -losing- effort. They want to defend the target enough so that everyone knows they're TRing the victim, but not so much that they actually stop the lynch. Actually stopping the lynch can backfire on the scum, because now there's all kinds of associatives between them and someone who is widely suspected.

So what do we see from CK's ISO? He doesn't give a soft and failing defense, whiteknighting Tywin without really throwing down. No, he goes all out in Tywin's defense. He attacks the wagon, the people on the wagon, and bizarrely defends Tywin. Remember also that he was looking to signal to the scumteam "Hey, I'm on your side."

All this together is a nearly-incontrovertible arrow pointing at Tywin.

In fact, fuck what I said a few posts ago. I'm not compromising on Elbirn, I will settle for nothing but Tywin today.

[Pine]

I didn't. I'm out of shots. If I were still a roleblocker, I'd have blocked N4 and realized Tywin was innocent. I'm essentially a VT now.

[Pine]

I didn't. I'm out of shots. If I were still a roleblocker, I'd have blocked

N5

and realized Tywin was innocent. I'm essentially a VT now.

EBWOP. I can't math. I think the title of the thread hasn't been updated.