Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Alisae

[Aj The Epic]

Lapsa confirmed jester

[Aj The Epic]

Hello Titus.

VOTE: Elbrin

Regardless of time of game, if you're going to be serious and call someone town, have a reason.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah Transcend nice try grudge matching.

[Aj The Epic]

Played with Titus before?

Yes I have, at least twice.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah this wagon ain't suspicious as shit. Haven't posted in 20 pages due to RL stuff and y'all just randomly throw down now.

Ez Sonia. 2 reasons.
A. It's something that Tywin needs to understand as a player.
B. It helps me townread Transcend.

Why does that filler make you tr Transcend

To me it seem like townies would get annoyed at wall posts.

I was hoping y'all would settle down and start that style because the rate at which you all play is too fast for me. Walls are nice.

The reason she gives for her intial SR on you, Titus, looks bad. She said you haven't been evaluating the game I think, but the shift to a TR looks like it could be defensive.

The reason here Titus is interacting with me. Titus is evaulating me as scum. Titus is scum hunting. Titus is doing town things. Thus she gets my read as town.

Why would I care if she's interacting with you? You could be her scum buddy. Titus is calling me scum, not you. So in calling me scum, she needs to ask me questions, not you. And now that you chainsaw HARD for Titus, I question if maybe you two are buddies. It surely isn't a townie move to not let her answer her own questions, let alone letting the focus go off of her.

So I understand the frustration of dealing with Titus. It's incredibly annoying and most the time you just accept that there's no reasoning to be had.

That being said, asking for a PR to intervene after a lynch, throwing shade at someone for 'buddying' as a way to deter action and really just not committing to full on calling them scum when you're 90% the way there is all pretty terrible.

Sorry, last post for a bit. And while I'm here, Coludkicker town? Frustratingly opaque posting style, but seemed spontaneous...

UNVOTE

Right, moz out.

Yeah Transcend nice try grudge matching.

There's also this gem

However, now that my only game with him is over, i did mislynch him in it. However he subbed into a bad slot. That or i ate Vifam's ass a bit too hard. Maybe a combo of both.

Regardless, this post is the worst of his entire "wtf" iso.

I get the feeling you're someone who's salty as hell over past events. You literally went after my slot over the grounds the vote that was stolen was yours.

Lapsa confirmed jester

Hello Titus.

VOTE: Elbrin

Regardless of time of game, if you're going to be serious and call someone town, have a reason.

Yeah Transcend nice try grudge matching.

Played with Titus before?

Yes I have, at least twice.

This is the entirety of AJ's ISO.

He's defending Lapsa as a jester.
He's chainsawing you on behalf of Uzi and attacking reasonless posting. He has zero followthrough on my mock of him for that. Why does he pick your naked vote in particular? He also insists all votes need reasoning and follows up with zero.
Picks a fight with obvtown Transcend.
Makes a meta comment.

There's no sorting or attempt to here.

I'm not defending Lester, it's literally post 19. I was making a comment about his style.
I'm not chainsawing on the behalf of Uzi, and even if we were buddies why the fuck would I defend someone who had like one vote on them?

My inactivity can be chalked up to the fact that I have other things to do and you all have thrown in like 20 pages for me to catch up on.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Tyrone

Reason above.

This pace is stupid though.

[Aj The Epic]

Why do you feel comfortable with this wagon, Alisae? By people on it? By speed?

You went from Null, to potential scum, to voting me and saying i'm very scummy and I hadn't posted inbetween that at all.

[Aj The Epic]

Lapsa confirmed jester

I'd say this post is highly relevant as well, given Lapsa was taking heat (rightfully so) for his push on Cabd.

I do not lynch for "information" unless forced to do so.

We have three posts. 1 defending scum. 1 trying to start drama with Transcend. 1 opportunistic vote on Elbrin trying to get Elbrin to hang himself that just happens to counter Lapsa.

And yes, I do think Transcend is doing his own thing.

So you moved the goal posts from Uzi to lapsa now.

Edit: And so the four man scum team is now me, Lapsa, Uzi, Tyrone. Cute.

[Aj The Epic]

Any reason we're assuming 4 man scumteam here?

This is based off titus saying I a.) chainsawed for Uzi, b.) defended Lapsa and c.) bussed tyrone. Only way it can work is if I'm scum with all four.

[Aj The Epic]

math was never my subject anyways.

[Aj The Epic]

Valid question. I'm comfortable with it because I don't like your posts.
Like for example the one where you vote Elbrin. You're implying that he had stated no reason for his townreads at all. But at that point he stated his reasons for why he thought 2 out of 3 people were town, the last person I knew it was gut because of his meta.
And I don't get why you would want to encourage wall posts? The problem with them is that they lack a consice arguement that you could easily grab. They fail to convey the point to the reader. I like arguements that are easy to grab and understand.

First... I'm not sure I agree with you saying you didn't like my posts, because that doesn't explain your read changing.

So there's two issues I had with Elbrin: his reasons were generic, which is why I stated there were none. Second, it felt incredibly forced to come out with that many town reads so early. Yes the adage is that town town read more than scum but it was irrelevant and unnecessary and honestly none of the reads felt controversial at that point.

Walls don't have to be devoid of content but they imply that at least we're slowing the pace to respond in a point-by-point style. I'm historically awful at fast games, so it's always in my best interest to pray the game starts to elongate posts, as that's the happy median between slow and still full of information.

With Transcend:
I think it's NA. I felt like he was after me more for a comment I made in the last game than anything else.

[Aj The Epic]

AJ what is your read on Gamma?

Give me a moment. I really haven't noticed gamma's posts here.

[Aj The Epic]

This is gonna be another one of these games where I post logic and it gets ignored isn't it?
Yeah feels like it

If it contains proper punctuation, I'll read it.

So gamma doesn't really have much to read into and it's kinda understandable how I missed it re-reading. Ignoring fluff posts, Gamma's posts have largely been 1 line questions:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Reasoning?

How is Lapsa town

Serious explanation plz.

Why do you not follow your accusation with a vote?

(not in chronological order).

The first is understandable. It's referring to a vote on himself. The second two refer to Cloud's call on Lapsa for town.

Lapsa is someone he voted for in RVS, but did call scummy. His vote on cloud is pretty trivial (calling CK's taunt to someone a scumclaim).

The thing is, there's still not enough here to make a read on. His actions show a lack of analysis, but not necessarily a lack of conviction to reads.

[Aj The Epic]

The reason I ask AJ is that in my reads list I have you above Gamma. Why do you think that is, based upon what had been posted by both you and him up to that point?

I don't play with you often enough to know this. If I had to guess it's because Gamma's interests begin and end with asking questions where I'm more accusatory.

[Aj The Epic]

Not_science is another similar one fwiw

[Aj The Epic]

We're mostly talking about people from the mafiascum retirement home. You can ignore those parts.

The parts that are relevant: "Does a member of the scum team; knowing there is/isn't a traitor, talk about the scum team in fixed number terms?"

Unlike some moderators, Cephrir does not state faction sizes in his opening.

(assuming this is directed towards me) And you could answer that because the last time you played with me, I was scum. It was the tarot mafia game that I almost gambitted a win from.

[Aj The Epic]

I'm seeing Alisae as scum. Not necessarily as hard as Tywin, but just off memory

-She goes and changes her views from Null to Super Scum on me without me posting
-Goes from Town reading gamma to voting him, basically not posting
-Is voting Nero largely off of protecting Titus.

It's really her hoping and praying Titus townreads her at some point because Titus has been setting herself up as a townleader.

[Aj The Epic]

No, I think Titus is taking the position of power. Ergo controls the vote largely to anyone sheeping. Regardless of alignment of Titus, Alisae is hoping to get Titus to townread her (through theatrics as scum buddies or just Titus somehow deciding that Alisae ISN'T scummy as hell).

I can't read Titus. I think you two have a history if I'm not mistaken but I've come to realize you more or less do other things when Titus is in the game and try to be productive until Titus proves her alignment.

[Aj The Epic]

Because she's also playing like she plays as town the last time I was on site. If I recall, Nero, you were in that debacle too were Titus replaced in, took over and mislynched like 3x in a row. I would imagine that unless someone like Nacho or Mollie or a more dominant town-leader type is in the game, this is always her style.

[Aj The Epic]

Titus, give me an honest assessment first of Alisae and then why you think the wagon is bad.

[Aj The Epic]

@Mod: Titus is on Gamma.

[Aj The Epic]

Titus is 100% wrong, but I remain wholly unconvinced on her being scum.

[Aj The Epic]

Titus is 100% wrong, but I remain wholly unconvinced on her being scum.

What do you think she is wrong about?

Her current scum team still includes me for some asinine reason she's basically pulling from thin air. The reason I don't contest it is because I've come to expect this from Titus

[Aj The Epic]

AJ, humor me for a bit will ya. I don't remember you posting your reads. Would you like to post your reads?

You and Tywin scum. I think Sonia's probably town, as might be Elbrin. Gamma needs to do something before the inevitable heat death of our universe.

I don't commit to having many reads early on, especially in a town pile.

[Aj The Epic]

AJ picks the easiest players to call scum here. That's not a real analysis. He simply went with the two players most won't disagree with in a way that requires explaining. AJ hasn't done anything all game as far as I've seen, unless I missed something between the last 12 pages (will catch up soon regardless). The guy is skating by and is half-hearting these bs reads.

AJ: why am I scum? Why is Alisae scum? Why do you have two scum reads, but can't seem to get reads on more than half the game? Please explain all the reads you half heartedly slapped together.

"Can't get a good read" isn't true. I'm just a paranoid player and therefore don't like to have a townlist I don't trust.

I've discussed Alisae and you for scum. Until you respond there, I'm of no need to do your busy work. You either read it or you don't.

Furthermore it's completely on you not to be an 'easy target', aka someone who can be easily scum read. Alisae isn't necessarily that either, as certainly there's not exactly popularity for her lynch before I started discussing it. One vote on, from Nos in RVS. At peak, 3 votes on.

P-edit: Gamma's more suspect for what he HAS said, those 2 just haven't said much.

[Aj The Epic]

Gamma's activity is largely limited to asking questions. It's a case of IoA for the most part.

[Aj The Epic]

I just don't see much of a point to be active and read everything only to have to defend myself against illogical non-reasons. The only thing I've ever seen from anyone to call me scum is from one post where I said 'it's only fair' that Uzi answer Elibirn's question. That apparently was the scum tell of the century for these people, because they don't have a clue as to what scummy is or isn't. It's a joke. There's no defending against idiocy, and I can't change the minds of those who are either scum or just ignorant, so there's nothing to really be invested about in this game for me.

Except this is not even near the reason I've called you scum. If you're going to complain, at least make the attempt to do something first.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Alisae

Can't act like you want to buddy Titus and then trash her.

[Aj The Epic]

Alisae, if you were town, you'd have had a real conviction instead of a false one to begin with.

[Aj The Epic]

Alisae and Kyouko need to be revisited. That should be the next course of action. So far, I've been happy with how this day is progressing, so I think bouncing onward for now is worth while. Both Kyouko and Alisae have been suspect in the last few pages for various reasons and out of the list of people available to be looked into, these two make the most sense for scum.

[Aj The Epic]

So far, I've been happy with how this day is progressing

?

On day 1, being able to quickly cycle through not only the baseline of suspicious people, but the people who have made votes that were suspicious, is a great plus. My general theory of the game is that town can never be more powerful than D2/N3/D3 so getting this much positive information day 1 to have actually formed a town core that we can be reasonably confident in is a win in and of itself.

[Aj The Epic]

Defined as?

You, Elbrin, Myself, titus. We can basically assume Tran's replacement for town, so given a reasonable player is put there, they'll be capable of fulfilling this too. I'm working on Nero, who I believe is capable, but I don't have a townread on yet.

Basically a group of players capable of driving this game in a positive direction going forward. If town only has one head, they'll be picked off and the town has to reorganize each day. That's why it's really important to have multiple heads capable of making good decisions. And the democratic process of finding if one is lying is basically that they're also the center of attention and the ones who have to be right constantly to avoid scrutiny.

[Aj The Epic]

You don't even understand the point of it. It's been happening for the past 40 pages and you've just been apart of it.

[Aj The Epic]

We can eliminate Tywin when we need to, or let him get endgamed as we smash this game far before lylo. There's no reason to bother with anything less than certainty when we've gotten off to such a good start.

[Aj The Epic]

let him get endgamed

...?

Win the game before lylo, lynch last scum, endgamed with town.

[Aj The Epic]

Yes, but then you actually need to peace out and play to your wincon.

[Aj The Epic]

We still don't NEED to go for his removal. The thing is, we also aren't required to listen to him until her decides to post something that isn't him calling out non-existent attacks.

There ARE, as I said, other things to get done. Aka Kyouko and Alisae.

[Aj The Epic]

Is Alisae a case of too scummy to be scum for you? If you're not calling her scum, I'd expect her to be implicitly town but your language doesn't make that seem true.

[Aj The Epic]

Jesus christ, talk about the most overused fake in the world.

[Aj The Epic]

That's gonna need an explanation or quote for context.

[Aj The Epic]

Sonia, frustration and AtE is NOT AI. Certainly backing it up with nothing but lying and flaming proves nothing more than something about the user themselves.

[Aj The Epic]

kyouko your entire premise falls apart if you take into consideration that I'd never be so blatant in allowing all scum to vote with the same pattern.

[Aj The Epic]

Kyouko, you think I'm aligned with Tywin?

Bother me when you've got something that makes sense then.

[Aj The Epic]

I personally think Alisae is a fine wagon to be on right now.

If we're speaking of wagons, I'd like the pool for today to be:
Alisae, kyouko and Sonia. I'd consider Gamma, but that's lower on my list of priorities.

Uzi, Pine, mozamis, Nos need to get active. mozamis has been trying, so props for that, but I need more to get a good read.

Right now, we should run the assumption on Tywin as town and even if you don't agree with that, his wagon today gives us nothing because he's alienated himself and invited himself as an easy target. Transcend's slot should be recognized as town until further notice. I wouldn't want to lynch cabd/titus/elbrin without a much stronger case than has existed already and honestly think at least two are going to be town. As for Nero, this is something I know he does whenever he sees titus. FWIW, he needs to stop focusing on Titus and do something else.

Can we not go for 'proposed scum teams' day 1? Every suggested team thus far looks like garbage.

[Aj The Epic]

See, this is something that doesn't work yet because only someone who's REALLY good at meta is able to put together perspective teams this early on. Someone who can say "i'd expect gamma!scum to bus a partner early" or "I'd expect gamma!scum to make no attempts to talk to their partner" is the only one able to do it d1 because there's so many different ways a person can interact with scummates.

[Aj The Epic]

Is pirate_mollie no longer active ;_;

[Aj The Epic]

That's 1.3 tho, in RVS stage essentially.

[Aj The Epic]

Kyouko is more concerned about drafting his fantasy scum team than he is about actually hunting. Throws out the traitor card with no real reason. Suspecting a traitor isn't even NAI, because scum can be trying to signal each other that way if one exists. But needless to say, it's also fucking pointless to suspect that in D1. His potential scum team is at this point like 7 long but he's gone through variations that suggest he suspects and has more than half the playerlist as acceptable lynches.

Lapsa Tywin and AJ scum, Alisae Traitor or on other scumteam in multiball, leaning Traitor.

That's from 1536.

If he is a traitor though would it not be interesting if he had used his 561 as another crumb? Look at the bolded. If it's 4 scum, 3+ a traitor, the scumteam might notice this reads list and see themselves as 2 easy mislynches alongside the traitor, plus the last of the scum team being hidden inside the 3 below where there is "perhaps bus on 1". This would be traitor!Lapsa + AJ +Tywin + 1 of [Alisae, Uzi, Gamma] as the scumteam.

1585, referring 'his' as lapsa.

Kyouko, thoughts on Sonia and Uzi?

They aren't bothering me aside from not voting. I haven't looked very closely at Sonia yet though so I think I'll do that now. LUV is the lurkier of the two I feel. Also forgot to post that Cloud is also currently not voting in that unofficial VC.

Suuuuure. Just recall uzi and sonia don't post much between this and him claiming they're part of a scum team.

Also throws out multiball as a possible theory.

More importantly, Kyouko explains away some bad votes with "I was sheeping", specifically why he was on my wagon.

[Aj The Epic]

It's Day 1. TBH if we had a 'die scum' read, it'd probably just flip town.


Other than you placing SSBM twice and me probably reading him a little lower than 50%, all is fine.

[Aj The Epic]

Also can some tell me in 15 words or less why Lapsa is a thing

762 is a traitor crumb for his scumteam, according to him.

^11 words

And you aren't joining the wagon yet because?

And anyways, Alisae/Uzi/someone else is the traitor according to SSBM

Also if Sami isn't your '#1 Adv Wars CEO' you just have never faced the menace that is the Eagle/Sami tag team.

[Aj The Epic]

Uhhh goes both ways. I've played games as traitor where I just avoided my partners like the damn plague. And other games where I couldn't pin the traitor because they were hiding it, so tried to hardcore bus who I thought it was.

[Aj The Epic]

Just gonna save the Alisae stuff for later (in a draft) I'm getting heated over this SK discussion and that's not very good for my health atm.

Town - Titus, Elbirn
Townlean - Cloud, Syryana, Cabd, Nero Cain

----D1 Lynch Line----

Nulltown -Gamma, Pine, Nosferatus, mozamis, Tywin
Nullscum - Sonia, Aj
Scumlean - LUV
Scum - Alisae, Lapsa

Tywin could drop again real quick depending on how he continues. Aj could rise pretty quick depending on if/how he ever comments on my comments on his case on me. Sonia is admittedly lowered by preflip associations. Gamma keeps coloring me red in his VCAs but I think his heart is in the right place. LUV has not responded adequately to direct questioning so he's still down there, and

his vote is positioned well on the Lapsa wagon to be a bus

.

Had I seen something worth responding to, I would've. It did little to change my opinion.

[Aj The Epic]

Honestly? I'm starting to think Lapsa/AJ/Nosferatu just off their early exchange with Cabd and knowing there's day talk.

wat

Tywin, do you feel as if Kyouko on a scum team specifcily with

Lapsa

or not?

wat

Edited. 4am. Need to sleep, probably am not going to sleep anyways.

I honestly haven't and won't look for scum pairings this early. Without a flip of one of them, there's really no point. It's one of the major gripes I had/have with Titus. It's just pointless to look for pairs and tunnel the game into theories that make no sense.

That's why I believe she even put you as the 'SK' on D1, because you don't fit well in her scum pairing theory. Kyouko running with it kind of also points out why pairing anyone on D1 doesn't work. I've always thought it best to find one scum first, at least in large games like this. Find the first one before worrying about more.

Do you have any specific connections between Lapsa/Kyouko though? That's worth looking into regardless, but if it's just Kyouko not voting Lapsa, I don't see a problem with it right now.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah this is a bullshit lynch. It's basically PL, giving anyone an excuse to hop on, especially if it's a ML, and give no justification for it.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah was about to say a shot on Uzi by scum made no sense.

Nevertheless if it's a traitor kill by scum, scum had to have a reason to want to kill Cloud... Normally, he was on to something. It'd be rather ironic if his reads were good enough to draw the scumkill as a traitor, but I'm willing to assume that might just be what happened.

[Aj The Epic]

sonia titus elbirn pine are all looking bad atm, i like uzi, lap and another guy i forgot

Well we got double town flip out of this.

The thing is, I don't think CK plays a lot of OMGUS into his scum game. He constantly made a case for Alisae not being scum, points double town out of our flips etc etc. I'm wanting to lynch through his scumreads and see what pops up.

I'm about to say he was buddying Sonia to let her know he was the traitor and that he DID know (I've never seen a traitor that doesn't). In fact, some of his posts (Sonia townleading?!?! emote emote) seems sarcastic and really unneeded ambiguity that wasn't even that true in the context. (His post 668 for context).


I don't know if I'm good enough to see what triggered his death. He SRs SSBM, Seems to flip to SR Alisae, interacts weirdly with Sonia (buddying), is actually interested in Nero. Flips Lapsa once traitor is noted, which in THEORY should be when we find his crumb.

And... here it is:

Kyouko youre really underestimating what a traitor would to to indicates hes the traitor to their scumteam

VOTE: Kyouko

I think CK was hinting through him and maybe Sonia, but more sure of him.

P;edit: I'm cooking so my responses are disjointed and late.

[Aj The Epic]

Also can someone explain the titus/Cabd "Clear" read?

[Aj The Epic]

okay, was concerned it was coming from a CK interaction because if I was sticking with my theory, Titus actually got called scum an abnormal amount by CK. I guess his reads can't be 100% perfect and honestly I think he circumvented it by having a lot of townreads.

[Aj The Epic]

Okay I'm calmed down a little bit.
Let me try again.
You think I'm scum because I'm the only one where the cloud nk makes sense when I don't think NKA makes much sense
he could've been a pr kill
he could've been random
he could've been because he was tr by a lot of people
there's a lot of reasons

Having played with players in the past who could 100% read me, I don't really buy this. Had a friend who used to play mafia a lot with me who'd be able to pick me as scum/town by D3 (I could do the same back so it was a bit of WIFOM city). Among friends offsite it was known that if one of us died, the other was always suspect because of that. CK claims to be able to read you, CK dies. It's not the most thorough case, but it's a mark against you regardless of liking it or not.

[Aj The Epic]

Like this is one of the few situations where I think NKA is actually pertinent...

Sonia, how good are you and CK at reading each other, with like a % approximation both ways, and how many days does that take to be sure?

We cannot really overlook that if Alisae is telling the truth (which is seems likely) this is seriously one of the weirdest kills to make even regardless of CK's alignment. He WASN'T the bona fide most town needed to be eliminated person, he was kinda fledgling middle. Cabd was my guess for dying tonight, that or Syrn's slot (which I guess is rightfully getting some suspicion) and Elbrin next if they were uncomfortable with going after the first set. THEN CK/Myself/Titus would've/should've been in contention, some 4-6 shots down. And Alisae, with claimed killing power. There's a reason CK died and I didn't see any PR crumbing other than traitor, so I'm guessing it's on reads.

[Aj The Epic]

And your read on CK yesterday?

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah gunsmith suggests SK, but tbh it's a necessary evil at this point.

[Aj The Epic]

I like the first one.

Can't fathom why.

[Aj The Epic]

I didn't crack under pressure when I was scum with a cop guilty on me

That's not pressure. That's the "Whelp" moment.

[Aj The Epic]

I like the first one.

Can't fathom why.

Cloud fliped Loved Traitor.

I'll remember to work on my sarcasm, or my sarcasm detection.

Right titus I'm saying my role means vig+sk is too many false results for a gunsmith. Even MORE so if mafia doctor or town jailkeeper; that's like a third of all potential results N1

I mean, I agree. Scum can't be stacked enough to balance out town 2x investigation types, 1 full shot vig, an SK and some protection. It's far too much for the overall gamestate.

Unless you're going REALLY far south and saying the protect came from a scum jail keeper. But I think 3 possible night kills in a normal sized game is too swingy to pass

[Aj The Epic]

If you're playing the redneck card, it's oh deer.

[Aj The Epic]

They're easily skippable, Mr Sunshine. It's also a decent way to wait for people to catch up by joking around. Very little productive comes of it but very little needs to be read.

[Aj The Epic]

You have Cabd as strong town but not titus.

[Aj The Epic]

I mean with a list that long, you'll be an ACTUAL serial killer.

Which gives me a neat idea for a role, a vig who turns into an SK after 3 shots.

[Aj The Epic]

The only real answer is buckshot.

When are we planning on really getting back to wagoning people again?

[Aj The Epic]

I've had Kyouko pinned as scum since yesterday. I don't see this town motivation everyone else is talking about from that slot, it all looks calculated at best.

[Aj The Epic]

@everyone not named me: Should suspected but not proven to be Vig/SKs be leashed or instantly lynched?

lynched. I remember in my first game on this site, we tried to leash suspected sk TSO, but it entirely blew up in our faces. I was indifferent to the matter then, but now I know there's no real reason to leash over lynch.

I'd really like to not relive that; reading to see if I acknowledge tywin's case on Alisae.

I'd be interested to hear how y'all fucked that up. SK wins only in a Lylo situation with 3 people and mislynch.

The real answer is you leash them and lynch them only if you feel you're out of scum. I'm not sure the current state of wincons for an SK but I'm pretty sure they lose an endgame with scum having majority. It's from that perspective that you keep them around and keep careful track of kills/lynch majority so you don't somehow skip mylo/lylo. Wasting time on Vig/Sk day 2 is completely pointless. Gets you no information, gets you a guaranteed non-groupscum lynch, gives scum nothing to fear at night.

[Aj The Epic]

Mozamis' reads early in d2 were so bad I was ready to lynch him there.

[Aj The Epic]

Mozamis if your reads were any worse, I'd wonder if you were reading the wrong thread.

The fun thing of your read on me is you refuse to explain it and now go after a 'lack of content' when Cabd was asking us to hold off on speed wagoning this obvious scumslot in SSBM_Kyouko

[Aj The Epic]

Is there a point here? Other than pretending me calling you scum makes you any less of it?

[Aj The Epic]

So you're trying to devalue it.

[Aj The Epic]

That's just you denying what you just said. You just claimed "cabd is seen as more credible" which means that you ARE trying to devalue an opinion on basis of person rather than on basis of belief behind it.

[Aj The Epic]

Signal when you've decided to be caught up, and then we'll talk a bit.

[Aj The Epic]

Mozamis you seem to fail to understand I've been scumreading Kyouko since yesterday.

[Aj The Epic]

Kyouko is more concerned about drafting his fantasy scum team than he is about actually hunting. Throws out the traitor card with no real reason. Suspecting a traitor isn't even NAI, because scum can be trying to signal each other that way if one exists. But needless to say, it's also fucking pointless to suspect that in D1. His potential scum team is at this point like 7 long but he's gone through variations that suggest he suspects and has more than half the playerlist as acceptable lynches.

Lapsa Tywin and AJ scum, Alisae Traitor or on other scumteam in multiball, leaning Traitor.

That's from 1536.

If he is a traitor though would it not be interesting if he had used his 561 as another crumb? Look at the bolded. If it's 4 scum, 3+ a traitor, the scumteam might notice this reads list and see themselves as 2 easy mislynches alongside the traitor, plus the last of the scum team being hidden inside the 3 below where there is "perhaps bus on 1". This would be traitor!Lapsa + AJ +Tywin + 1 of [Alisae, Uzi, Gamma] as the scumteam.

1585, referring 'his' as lapsa.

Kyouko, thoughts on Sonia and Uzi?

They aren't bothering me aside from not voting. I haven't looked very closely at Sonia yet though so I think I'll do that now. LUV is the lurkier of the two I feel. Also forgot to post that Cloud is also currently not voting in that unofficial VC.

Suuuuure. Just recall uzi and sonia don't post much between this and him claiming they're part of a scum team.

Also throws out multiball as a possible theory.

More importantly, Kyouko explains away some bad votes with "I was sheeping", specifically why he was on my wagon.

@Mozamis.

That and the additional fact that I'm still pretty sure CK was trying to get kyouko's attention for the traitor crumb.

[Aj The Epic]

Can I get that read out loud? My buddy Stevie Wonder couldn't braille my computer.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah anyone pushing to lynch Alisae today is off their rocker. Either way, Alisae's dangerous to the groupscum so it should resolve itself.

[Aj The Epic]

Honestly? End the day. Pick a lynch, fight it out, end the day before New Years Eve. We're getting close to apathetic.

I'm kinda caught writing a research paper for a job application so... My issue right now is I don't know if I'm biased against Mozamis because she's constantly sending signals she thinks I'm scum and doing nothing with it or if I'm actually reading Mozamis as scum. I'll probably just side-by-side iso SSBM and Mozamis soon as they're really the only two I'm interested in lynching today.

[Aj The Epic]

BTW mozamis is a 'he', I slipped up there. Freaking avatar bias.

also Mozamis lest you forget I'm the one who basically made SSBM an obvious wagon. I have other reads, but they're town reads and uninteresting at that point.

[Aj The Epic]

I have other reads, but they're town reads and uninteresting at that point.

Disagree; I'd love your town reads and justification thereof to help me sort you.

Right now,

Titus/Cabd/Alisae/Pine town
Nero/Elbirn probtown
Nos null
Tywin/Sonia/Gamma lean scum
Moz/SSBM scum

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah, come on lets lynch AJ. The guys a good player and yet time and time again he gives no original input. He's not trying to "solve the game" , or push it on. No justufactions for his reads.
Just an identikit "blend in" list of reads.
He's scum.

@Aj so Nero's "prob town". Why?

Yeah these two posts make perfect sense in conjunction.

Nero is town because this is what he always does with Titus around. The fact that he's not overplaying his paranoia for Titus and dropped it in search of better things to do is enough.

[Aj The Epic]

IDK if night 1 you shoot an unclaimed mason. Like you expect real town roles like cops (and SK/Vig for that matter) to exist so especially if you're not pushing that lynch, it's alright to leave alone.

[Aj The Epic]

Well, maybe we should drop the SSBM lynch?

I think that's the idea here, yes.

--------------
Nero Cain
Nosferatu
Gamma Emerald
Aj The Epic
mozamis


If you're not on this list, you're either town or alisae the nightkill immune miller vig. If you are on this list you just might be scum.

Behold my lynch pool, yee mighty, and despair!

I love how noncommittal you are "If you're on this list you may be scum". Let me list the remaining alive players and say the same.

I'd like to hear your reasoning for nero though. Is this just a null and down list or do you have legitimate suspicions for him to be scum?

[Aj The Epic]

A particularly relevant time to insert Sonia's last post here.

[Aj The Epic]

Hi Gamma! What's your opinion on the like last 3 day of gameplay?

[Aj The Epic]

Also stop flirting.

[Aj The Epic]

is it even particularly relevant?

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Mozamis

This day's too long in the teeth.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Mozamis

This day's too long in the teeth.

big surprise...
and no it isn't, we have another 7 days until deadline. What's your rush?

Apathy. Nothing more. I'm apathetic to this game and have been for multiple IRL days.

[Aj The Epic]

Cabd's post had one 'connection' with CK talking about me. If you're assuming I'm scum, nothing the other way is even relevant (nor did it really exist) so I'm going to need to see more connections. There are other legitimate reasons to be wanting to lynch me, 'connections' are not among them.

[Aj The Epic]

>Rants about no ability to give decent reads
>votes for the one person in the game he doesn't mention the entire post

[Aj The Epic]

So according to moz aj is scum but let's look for options outside of aj

Wew lads

She just saw the light imo.

I don't really get the negative feels over this game. As far as I'm concerned, the town's in a relatively decent position to perform and Tywin's direction went against his own diction by refusing to explain his own placement.

[Aj The Epic]

I do cases when I need to start a wagon, not end one.

[Aj The Epic]

No, that's a perfectly reasonable mindset. If the wagon exists and will conclude with a lynch, why bother making a case for why I think it should exist and reach a lynch?

[Aj The Epic]

Tywin, if you think Mozamis' wagon is 'scum driven', you think PINE drove the wagon, or who are you saying? Because 'driven' would suggest 'started by' which is nothing I can take credit for either way (hence another awkward biproduct of your vote) but Pine seems to be your other scum read.

(Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Pine, Gamma Emerald, Alisae, Aj The Epic)

Going by assumption, Titus is confirmed town. SSBM, while you read scum/null lean, has been given town read basically off of a potential town slip. You scum read Gamma but he hasn't been active to drive the wagon. Alisae can't be group scum. I'm not driving shit. So where's the statement coming from?

[Aj The Epic]

We're both the the clearest town players here, along with Elbirn,

Srsly did I get day-copped while I wasn't looking?

Moz did you not have me as scum earlier? Explain.

Mozamis and Tywin have nigh identical reads. It's kinda awkward but I'm not sure what to make of it.

[Aj The Epic]

I'm awful at scum theatre. Is that what I'm seeing between Mozamis and Tywin or is it probably just coincidental?

[Aj The Epic]

The thing is, if I knew Tywin to be a great mafia player I'd immediately say he's scum. It's a performance that makes sense for why you'd do it as scum (none of us really know him well, it looks VI-ish while being so completely off base, ties closely with Mozamis but this is preflip associative), but it's also completely impossible for anyone not good at the game to do.

[Aj The Epic]

Nos, for example,

[Aj The Epic]

Please don't lynch Tywin.

[Aj The Epic]

It's actually seriously obvious Tywin was a mason with Mozamis. As soon as mozamis flipped, I wanted to kick myself for not seeing it.

[Aj The Epic]

Mozamis and Tywin have fucking identical reads. They both were convinced each other was town.

[Aj The Epic]

If you really think scum is fucking dumb enough to counterclaim...

[Aj The Epic]

I don't particularly blame Nero for having an unbold vote count to a lynch, as I wouldn't expect it to count either.

[Aj The Epic]

No, but I won't vote him for reasons of an unbold vote.

[Aj The Epic]

Again, not my question. What do you think of Nero?

I mean, it was your question at the time.

I've been null-town on Nero for a while, simply because he's played exactly as I'd expect with you in the game.

P-edit: And there are posts where Mozamis has Syrana in his scum pile of three, multiple times.

As far as I'm concerned, the outting today is fine. Titus, Alisae, Mason buddy and Pine (probably) all need to die from their point of view so it's really unlikely that they can actually devote a whole day to avoid a killer role that's eliminated at least half their team already or Titus who's essentially full cleared by a now-dead semi-cop.

[Aj The Epic]

That realistically leaves Sonia, myself, Gamma, Elbrin, Nero and SSBM (unless we're still playing with that masonthought being a townslip) as possible lynch targets today.

[Aj The Epic]

Well since I've outright stated that I don't want him lynched today as the other mason, I'd say you're probably right.

[Aj The Epic]

Shading the dead guy...

Yeah this is the third derpslip. Dude fakes them underpressure

Yeah he's not the mason.

Titus, how does his pushes make sense from a scum perspective? Why pick a fight with you here, why go after kyouko (whose main proponent for a wagon listed him as a no-lynch today)? I think his actions are reckless and off-base but for little benefit of scum.

[Aj The Epic]

But he should know he doesn't win a fight with you at this point.

[Aj The Epic]

Shading the dead guy...

Yeah this is the third derpslip. Dude fakes them underpressure

Yeah he's not the mason.

Titus, how does his pushes make sense from a scum perspective? Why pick a fight with you here, why go after kyouko (whose main proponent for a wagon listed him as a no-lynch today)? I think his actions are reckless and off-base but for little benefit of scum.

My actions are reckless and off base? How? I'm at work, so I'm not caught up, and I only checked to see if I'd been NKed yet, but I find it absolutely hilarious that all my reads have been mostly correct, while all the players who've been gunning for me all game have consistently wagoned town and zero scum. That's really funny to me, because regardless of the outcome, I was proven right, while players who've been whining and crying about lynching me all game have been proven to be nothing but a detriment to town.

I haven't been on a single town wagon this game. You all join shit wagons without reason, don't listen to obvious town players, and still refuse to acknowledge you were wrong. I think Titus needs to just stop and let others handle things, since she's been nothing but bad for town as far as I've seen. Maybe she redeems herself starting now, but all her wagons and reads have been shit the entire game up til now. Yes, I'm gloating. She deserves this in this specific game.

So instead of flaunting your glorious reads, give them and cases. Reads are only a half of this game and if you're unable to both give reads AND convince players you're right, you're at as much fault as the people mislynching.

[Aj The Epic]

Teacher by nature.

[Aj The Epic]

Votecount 1.10

Lapsa 7 (Pine, CloudKicker, Alisae, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert, ssbm_Kyouko)
Titus 4 (Nero Cain, mozamis, Tywin Lannister, Syryana)
Alisae 1 (Aj The Epic)
Tywin Lannister 1 (Lapsa)
CloudKicker 1 (Nosferatu)

Not Voting 3 (Cabd, xSoniaNevermindx, Elbirn)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 is December 30 at 11 AM Eastern.

While the mod at least exists now, he will nonetheless be kinda-on-vacation for the next week.

Here is my hangup with Lapsa being scum... Namely a few SRS on the wagon. If Lapsa does flip scum, I can't see them all bussing here. It wouldn't make sense.

AJ/Nosferatu/Sonia/Elbirn

will need closer looks regardless. I get bigger scum vibes from Nosferatu/AJ than I do Elibirn/Sonia though.

So why hasn't anyone questioned Nosferatu on that Cloud vote?

That just looks bad. AJ on Alisae over ever mentioning Uzi looks bad IMO. I'd assume they'd both be scummy in AJ's mind considering they both have done the same things (albeit to lesser degrees). I honestly like everyone on the Titus wagon, but that's not going to go through today. Sonia had kinda disappeared, so I don't know where to lean with her.

The real problem I have is that the Lapsa wagon contains enough SRs that it gives me pause,

but nothing Lapsa has done objectively makes me think 'town' whatsoever

. So it's my own bias due to SRs that make me uneasy about him more than anything else. If Lapsa is scum, then they can't all be scum with him. That's too many votes for a proper bus.

??? You've got... one correct read here. Kyouko, your current read, is unflipped. How are you on a high horse over this?

[Aj The Epic]

Either way, I'm conflicted about Tywin. I'm not sure on him atm. I'm much more sure on Kyouko.

Issue is, Tywin's pushed himself into a level of WIFOM that's just harmful for the town at large.

[Aj The Epic]

There's 11 people in game, that's L-1

[Aj The Epic]

It's almost like the concept of waiting for catchups is beyond you.

[Aj The Epic]

Well, of the alive, you -> Mason, Alisae -> Vig, Titus -> Conftown (Cabd)

That's the claims I think.

[Aj The Epic]

How to ruin a townread: Pine edition.

[Aj The Epic]

Remember if you give a vig/Sk an exact "kill this person" kinda deal, it becomes that much easier for scum to play around. Until Alisae fails at doing his job correctly, there's no reason to bother with it.

[Aj The Epic]

Lots of town not voting mozamis D2

You mean... Mozamis and an inactive Syrana? Rofl nice one. Can't use "scum voted for Lapis" because that's you. Gamma/Pine on both and Titus is chasing you off Pine. Little options for your conclusion, insufficient backing of evidence and really a weak delivery is all I noticed from that post.

[Aj The Epic]

Smells like discrediting? You literally stated "A lot of town weren't on Mozamis' lynch" of which constituted the one being lynched and an inactive.

[Aj The Epic]

Bold your damn votes.

Also Kyouko have you been townreading Gamma ANYWHERE before this?

[Aj The Epic]

Spoiler:

kk getting back to those Tywin and Alisae reads now that I'm sober.
Leaning Town on Alisae, not as sheepy as I thought, that was just the word I used last night to describe her very early play involving the introductions and all. I think the only sheepy vote she had was on Lapsa After she dropped the catposting things looked a lot better from her.
Tywin the play looks scummy so far, could wagon that if he keeps on the way he is and the right people are voting him, but not right now.

There are scum here in the bold:

Votecount 1.3

Lapsa 5 (

Pine

,

Gamma Emerald

,

Titus

, Alisae,

Elbirn

)

So my vote will stay here until all the bold look town or someone else scums up the thread.

@Alisae - "Me because of my role pm says so." Serious answer please. If you think that was a serious answer then who's your second-strongest TR?
pedit: jk

@Titus:
Town - Titus, Transcend
Townlean - Elbirn, Cabd, Cloud

----D1 Lynch Line----

Townlean - Sonia, Nero Cain
Nulltown - Pine, Nosferatu, mozamis
Nullscum - Gamma, Lapsa, Aj
Scumlean - LUV, Tywin
Scum - Alisae

I usually don't do these, but I'm assuming you asked me for a good reason. There are 2 townleans above and below my lynch line because some of these are in my no vote zone and others are not. Cabd would be townlean on the bottom side of the line if he wasn't in your list of top TRs.

@Alisae - I've been trying to figure out if only one or both of you are scum by convincing you to vote each other. Tywin was close to the bottom of my reads list when I last gave it; I'm not in the habit of defending my SRs. I prefer to talk to them until they talk themselves into or out of a corner, and either lynch them or let them go depending on how I feel about them after the discussion.

Town - Titus, Transcend
Townlean - Elbirn, Cabd, Cloud

----D1 Lynch Line----

Townlean - Sonia, Nero Cain
Nulltown - Pine, Nosferatu, mozamis
Nullscum - Gamma, Lapsa, Aj
Scumlean - LUV, Tywin
Scum - Alisae

I understand why you've put Pine there but don't agree with it yet. Won't judge him until I see some more but he looks okay enough so far.

Exactly my thoughts. Although chose not to mention it.

Titus moved to scumpool.

Lapsa, AJ, TL - easy mislynches
Alisae, Uzi, Gamma - perhaps bus on 1, others null-ish town
kicker, pine, sonia - gtfo town
nero - snowflake gtfo town because nero
mozamis - snowflake oh so legit catchup gtfo town

nostramus?

Btw - Aj seems to be hardcore lurksack by meta.

The lurking is irrelevant

The content within the lurking is awful

I find it acceptable - it's better than Nosferatu's.

So these posts are the ones where he defends players without saying FYI to the point in the game where I pointed out that he says FYI a lot. The first post is defending Pine's lurking, and the last 3 are about AJ. He also puts Mozamis and Pine as town on this list but puts Nosferatus at a "?", which could be excused because i think Nos has like 3 posts at the time Lapsa posts this.
If he is a traitor though would it not be interesting if he had used his 561 as another crumb? Look at the bolded. If it's 4 scum, 3+ a traitor, the scumteam might notice this reads list and see themselves as 2 easy mislynches alongside the traitor, plus the last of the scum team being hidden inside the 3 below where there is "perhaps bus on 1". This would be traitor!Lapsa + AJ +Tywin + 1 of [Alisae, Uzi, Gamma] as the scumteam.
He uses FYI 3 times; twice to call Cabd and Titus scum, and once to call Alisae town.

I think both of you are just too invested and should back off a bit, its easier to see interactions when youre outside tunnels and whatnot, alisea 2nd to last post was explicitiy scumtelling imo

alisea is bascially saying that shes flip flopping because of tywin and that is just lold

Alisae is not scum here, especially if we ever see scum!Tywin flip. Cloud's iso as a whole points me to [Tywin, Sonia, Transcend, Gamma] for scum in order of descending suspicion. Alisae definitely not scum, Cloud was hanging onto that mislynch as long as he could and when Alisae finally calmed down he immediately backed off and went for the next easiest mislynch in the lurker Lapsa

Titus who do you see me being paired scum with?

Don't know. Not enough data, but why would you care?

Because I wanna help you scumhunt?

That's not helping scumhunt. That's pushing me down a path, which unfortunately is a different theory all together.

Also, why are you voting me if convinced I am hunting?

VOTE: Tywin
Not anymore.

For those that don't understand, I freaked out when

I was under the pressure Tywin gave me. And cause I was in that state of mind, I reacted to shit out of desperation. However, Tywin knows I react this way when I'm under a ton of fucking pressure. I think he does anyways. I think his first step to fighting Titus was to pressure me and be like "If she flips scum you're fucked." Tywin knew the buttons to push with me, so he manipulated me and pushed them. But I think he knew that he should start pushing them.

Tywin, you seem so desperate, I'm calling your bluff.

Imo that textbook mafia overexplaning their vote prior to the flip, also being proactive about being called out on it since the vote in itself is bad from her priors votes, alisea has be tuning her titus/tywin vote depending on the town swing for a good 10 ish pages now

This is Cloud pushing a

mislynch

.

yo if im wrong on tywin im wrong, i want trans read on that tho, i bet my macaroni he will agree with me

Preempting a scum!Tywin flip by saying "if I'm wrong I'm wrong" and is maybe trying to tempt scum!transcend into defending his partner. Could also be Cloud trying to buddy town!Transcend though so that's part of why he's lower on my list of suspects from the cloud iso.

Also woops i forgot i did quote, im sad transcend boi is subbing out, i really wanted to play with him and sonia, one of the reason why i joined the game, lapsa also said he wouldnt be part of tywin lynch but eventally did vote them, also aj you are right its not AI per se, but you have to read in to nd tywin's imo was genuine, much more than titus's iso she has posted as proof

VOTE: lapsa

This is where he gets onto Lapsa and his reasoning has to do with Lapsa voting Tywin. We've seen cloud and Lapsa's flips, I think this points to scum!Tywin

@ssbm get your vote in there, i see no reason why you would back off to go back on town

Cloud has already switched off Alisae (or was it Pine at this point?) onto Lapsa once he sees me start to push him. "go back on town" in this post refers to Tywin.

Lots of words

I'm sort of confused as to why you think AJ is naive for having lots of townreads he won't lynch when you basically hand your vote to two townreads

Though since I apparently have your vote please vote Titus with me kthx

Titus is town though, and neither of you have my vote. Titus and I have basically the same scumpool, but I think notable differences in our reads are at Nero and Aj. Voting with my townreads at an early stage before I develop strong SRs is not naive as you're implying though.

im fairly confident tywin is town though but i like you even if i think ure half wrong

Again, calling Tywin town. This was probably his most consistent stance all of D1, was that Tywin is town

Sonia is having the very same read that i have on tywin and we are competent enough to read into it, titus is just biased

Points to Sonia and Tywin for scum

Titus is town, tywin is town, aj looks town, sonia is gut town with pro reads that are just like mine. Sbm might be playing a great scumgame btw, elbirn looks town enough, gamma with the mason comment looks ridiculously town

This is the first and only time I see him mention Gamma which is why Gamma is the lowest on my suspect list but he repeats that Sonia has reads just like his again, maybe trying to hint that he has the same info she does?

And yea also

traitor claim

, if theres actually a traitor or not, its really great because mefia doesnt know if hes real or not and probably wont lynch him, just lynching a

traitor claim

is so good for reading interactions, mafia will find every reasons possble to not jump on it

i didnt read too mucn into your traitor crumd, im talking about the

traitor claim

Yeah, I'm still not interested in a Lypsawhateverthefuckhisnameis lynch

Pedit: whats this about lying about tywin?

Just going to mark this as fake looking and associatives with lapsa, this is the exact behavior im looking for by pushong on

traitor claim

He literally says "traitor claim" 4 times in a span of 6 posts if you read his ISO. The last time he says it he even draws attention to it with a , and the first time he says it he says "

and yea also traitor claim

, [redacted]"

I'm going to go back and look for the players that were hard reading Tywin as town for the way he got riled up and then calmed down. I know I ended up pushing my read on him aside because I saw him calming down

and

I saw several people hard reading him as town. One of those was Cloud, which was probably the player that convinced me the most to put aside that read. Obviously after that flip I'm not so sure about how right I was to do that.
I also saw Gamma do it here:

tbh I think Tywin!town isn't such a wild thought. He managed to level his thoughts and become rational.

I'm going to look for more players saying this and see who says it first, who says it most often, etc. Try to see if a vocal minority (scumteam) is trying to derail Tywin's wagon for some reason, whether because Tywin claimed vanilla or because Tywin is a part of their team.
I will say that going back to this Lapsa wagon of [Pine, Gamma Emerald, Titus, Alisae, Cabd] that the prime candidate for scum on it fmpov is Gamma. Alisae is clearly either SK or Vig which means she's not scum, Pine's vote was the first on the wagon so is less suspicious than the later ones, plus he's starting to look town today. Been waffling a bit on Cabd but I'm not shook yet. He's still town for me and Titus is still my rock today
Right now, before looking for who else was calling Tywin town, suspicions are on Gamma/Tywin, but if Alisae is at least thinking of killing Tywin tonight I'm looking elsewhere for now. If I had to pick one from your list Titus it would be mozamis but I don't think that's the best course for today. Going to wait for Gamma's catchup before I decided if I want to vote him though

@Alisae, will you consider shooting Tywin tonight? (Don't want your shot locked in there b/c it helps scum to know where you're shooting) If so I'll unvote for now

Ok Alisae that answer works. Also I think I found an Alisae vig crumb while rereading the great Tywin fiasco looking for who was reading him as town to see if it looked like a scumteam derailing his lynch (mostly inconclusive so far, but Gamma is probably town regardless of Tywin's alignment). Check the bolded in her post out:

I'm done with this shit.

Dayvig: Tywin Lannister

Thanks for saving me the trouble Gamma.

And Yeah Titus, I agree on focusing on someone else, either Kyouko, Lapsa, or me if you really want to. If you want, I can try to show off my case on Kyouko if you would like to hear it. Kyouko seems like he could be town, but if Tywin is scum, I can see him being paired up with Lapsa and Tywin. But let's see what he flips first.
Either way, if you are willing to work with me, I feel like we can get this game solved by day 2 or day 3 assuming that Tywin is scum.

My top scum reads at the moment are Lapsa, Tywin, Kyouko, and Moz.

If Tywin is town, then my theory about Kyouko is off by a long shot.

Still enjoying the summer breeze (alive)

Pine

Nero Cain

gerryoat

Gamma Emerald
Aj The Epic

xSoniaNevermindx

ssbm_Kyouko

Alisae

Tywin Lannister

Elbirn

Titus

UNVOTE:

so in 3127 I was working on a list for the vigi pool since we're getting so close to lynch. Not gonna let this go through without Nero, Gerry, and Gamma posting first though

Anyways green should be off limits to Alisae, Red preferred shots, No color is fair game. That's my opinion. Titus, thoughts on this list?

Why are you TRing Elbrin

well green is just people that I thought you would say shouldn't be shot, was trying to get something out for Alisae before hammer. If I were in charge of the list it would be limited to [Sonia, Aj, Nero, Gamma], with Sonia/Aj as preferred shots. Elbirn isn't a strong TR, just one of my leans from general feeling about his posts combined with other players looking either more scummy or less towny than him. Got you and Alisae as my lock towns now that Cabd flipped. Sure scum doctor is possible technically, but if that were the case I don't think Nos would have died last night considering this post:

None here.

Dear Santa, I want to vig the following people
Tywin
Kyouko
Cabd

Yeah no on kyko or cabd

Nero nos tywin

Like if you were scum doctor you wouldn't put more than 1 of your team on the vig platter and if you did put 1 up there you would just doc on them. Since you're still pushing Tywin/Nero today after seeing Nos flip scum, and would probably still have Nero in tonight's vigpool, I'd say the chances of you being scumdoctor are slim to none, and even smaller if Tywin or Nero flip scum.

That's a collection of the majority of Kyouko's posts on Gamma's alignment. I don't think he ever goes more than townlean gamma and multiple times suggests gamma on a scum team. Mostly, it's waffling. Even as recent as today, the read has gone both ways.

[Aj The Epic]

Nero, it's always impressive that you can manage to maintain paranoia of titus even when she's basically confirmed town.

[Aj The Epic]

Well, of the alive, you -> Mason, Alisae -> Vig, Titus -> Conftown (Cabd)

That's the claims I think.

Gerry slot did not claim anything, please stop fishing for the umpteenth time

Please stop this mockery of everyone's intelligence. It's not a fucking secret.

[Aj The Epic]

You're believing 6 scum...?

[Aj The Epic]

My theory of Elbrin Tywin AJ Nero feels good, but it's probably wrong

You gonna keep throwing unsubstantiated shade from the sidelines while continuing to do fuckall since you've been confirmed?

Show us the vca in your next post or claim scum, nerd

It's day 3. I need 3 days of data. Flips help.

Go ahead. Fight me.

Bruh. Bruh you *have* 3 days of data.

And you started pushing my buttons from the sidelines because "wow vca says elbirn scum"

And then you don't deliver.

Hell, even putting that aside, you have 6 corpses, two of which are scum, and you don't have enough info to analyze?

Hey guys guess what titus fucks up at when she's scum? She doesn't reveal her mysterious vca no matter how much you beg.

So I think you and I both realize the chances of a false-positive and true-negative existing at the same to to counter a 1-shot gunsmith is really unlikely. It completely invalidates a role that is... more or less flawed, even compared to a 1shot cop.

Which is why I'm stating that this post feels like scum employing the WIFOM of "Yeah but scum would never be fucking crazy enough to argue with confirmed town Titus". I know you're smart enough to see the writing on the wall and unfortunately I think Tywin's theatrics have given people the idea that such cases as the one quoted is acceptable and not retaliated against. Unfortunately, the fact that you are indeed smart enough to know Titus is almost certainly town means that this is complete and utter bullshit.

It's one of those cases were I'd expect you to put up or shut up here. This is a scum as hell post to try and discredit a basic confirmed town clear by a dead gunsmith by pretending to... call her out over not doing VCA? You're attempting to shake this read and do it in a way that people will say "oh but no scum would be that stupid". If you're going to toss shade, you might as well come out and build a case.

[Aj The Epic]

I don't have any solid 'reads' right now. I'm not wholly convinced Tywin is town largely because I think a few part of his play doesn't make sense for this 'survivalist' piece you're talking about (mainly, why carry over yesterday and completely ruin the read he's gotten?). Yesterday, I thought that it was a mistake that made him town: Scum theatre like D1 would require a lot of ability, and the mistake to perform too long wouldn't be made. However I'm now getting the impression it's his playstyle in general.

I'm trying to re-establish where I am with Kyouko. The shit he's pulled such as trying to shade my read on him as unimportant, the VCA which was complete garbage and his reads that particularly in D2 shook back and forth for no real reason all point to him as scum. I'm not even really convinced with any of this mason baloney because 'townslips' like that only take a little forethought to forge.

Lastly Elbrin has made a few posts today I'm not fond of.

Those are the three I'm willing to invest time into lynching at this moment.

[Aj The Epic]

What about Gamma and Pine?

Pine is still town regardless of his little issue earlier. Gamma's been inactive site-wide so it's hard to keep a read on him.

[Aj The Epic]

Sonia, tell me why I should townread you.

[Aj The Epic]

We could... you know, go with my D2 idea and lynch kyouko.

I do like Elbrin but Kyouko is a lynch I think everyone sorta has but no one's acting on.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: SSBM_Kyouko

Was hoping Sonia would respond once in a blue moon but I want this lynch more than I care about Sonia's alignment.

[Aj The Epic]

Aj you are interesting.
I think I am starting to solve this game and the Kyouko flip will say a lot.

If this wasn't in your equation already, it's worthless.

[Aj The Epic]

??? Coming from you lol

[Aj The Epic]

Are you always this bad or do you just have a lot of dog days?

[Aj The Epic]

Like let's just tell alisae, who's got the only scum kill thus far that he shouldn't be adding to the discussion.

[Aj The Epic]

Gamma, Kyouko makes that move as scum if:
1) Tywin is town
2) He's bussing.

It's a pretty easy stance to have. It's made more or less worse by the fact that it wasn't followed by a vote, which kinda suggests option 2 isn't there.

[Aj The Epic]

Are you trying to use a kyouko association to talk me down from Tywin

Aren't you using Tywin association to talk us down from kyouko?

[Aj The Epic]

I mean go ahead and vote Alisae. Pine/Elbrin/Tywin have already decided that votes on more than 99% likely town players are acceptable today.

[Aj The Epic]

Nos isn't alive today.

[Aj The Epic]

Because I have 0 posts about Tywin outside of this.

[Aj The Epic]

Being lockstep with you doesn't necessitate town.

[Aj The Epic]

You realize that your scum reads thus far have included Lapsa, LUV, me, Tywin, Nero and Gamma, right? Of them, your flips have all been town. Gamma Is the only one out of that I honestly think goes scum.

So that's what I don't like about you saying SSBM has been in sync with you. Scum would be MORE THAN HAPPY to be in sync with you at this point in time.

[Aj The Epic]

If you say I make a move

as scum

if: and then follow it by 2 scenarios

1)Tywin is town
2)Tywin is scum

then say that 2 doesn't make sense (again,

if I'm scum

) then all you're doing is assuming I'm scum then coming to the conclusion that because I'm scum and I didn't vote, that I'm not bussing, which means Tywin must be town. That does not make sense, you never consider why I would unvote there and keep my vote off Tywin if I were town. How is this not either a)Reading Tywin off of preflip associations or b)confbiasing scum!Kyouko theories?

Can you even explain why you scumread on me? I feel like the whole case on me is speculation based around the traitor discussion and people thinking that Cloud was trying to signal me. There are probably 4-6 people you could make that case on based on CK's posts.
I did not want this day to end early and still don't want it to end. Nero and Sonia have been almost silent today as far as their content goes. If Tywin is town, the longer the day goes on without town lynching each other, the more scum will have to show their hand. I think right now you're being forced to show your hand because we didn't speedlynch Tywin. Your alignment will be revealed more and more the longer we talk, so if you're town (which I seriously doubt right now) you may be able to convince the rest of us, but if you're scum, the longer this lasts, the more obvious you will be when it's all over.

So the entire post was directed at Gamma who claimed because you were calling Tywin on not self voting, you must be town. That line of thought is bullshit so I showed the scenarios for which scum would do the same. You and Tywin shouldn't be able to be scum together due to your actions so your scum flip clears Tywin.

However, i'm going to have to unvote. My general philosophy is to make a case against anyone to create a wagon (even though this one... really didn't need help) but I can't find enough of a case to convince myself at this point in time. I feel like I'm missing a buttload of posts that made me scumread you in the first place, so I'll keep looking.

UNVOTE:

[Aj The Epic]

Aj go look at Cloudie and Kyouko again if that makes you happy.
Elbrin who the fuck you think I'm shooting?

Gerry, who do you want me to shoot?
Sonia, same question.

Titus no longer has influence on this shit until she decides to lynch within one of MY scumreads.

I know that CK dropped a hint towards SSBM but again, it can't be both ways and the chance that he was trying to get the crumb out there in general is still a likely possibility.

[Aj The Epic]

Stop your fake fucking AtE. Scum already knew literally everything so town might as well know it too. Bitch about something relevant.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: gamma emerald

[Aj The Epic]

Explain the sonia read. You've sat it there and not said a word about her in like... 2 game days?

[Aj The Epic]

Hey Gamma, there's such a thing as proof.

[Aj The Epic]

Hold on a second...


That's a really easy admission to vote SSBM and get away with it free.

[Aj The Epic]

I don't think Gamma's chainsawing, I think his post about voting SSBM was opportunistic as fuck.

[Aj The Epic]

You still made the post. Are you thinking knowing someone would call you excuses you for that?

[Aj The Epic]

What's your SSBM read?

Also you never told me your Sonia reasoning.

[Aj The Epic]

scum!Aj realized my wagon isn't going to go through today, I really don't know at this point.

...It would most likely have happened had I not unvoted.

[Aj The Epic]

Gamma is going with the 6-man scum team theory. A rather risky ploy, we'll see if it pays off.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Nero

I'm with mom

what's your read on gamma.

[Aj The Epic]

>Sheep.

Uh, whose read is it anyways?

[Aj The Epic]

I'd still like Sonia to get back here first.

[Aj The Epic]

Ya know, if you're so sure Tywin is scum, why are you voting Gamma? Tywin's on that lynch, right?

[Aj The Epic]

Uh I'm on VLA but still kinda here tonight (and tomorrow night).

Titus, I don't think Alisae takes that shot honestly. Is there any normal role that would switch an obvious shot off a person like redirector that would require scum to guess the TARGET (not the shooter)?

[Aj The Epic]

The role I think it would be, which is Bus Driver, would be scum sided.

[Aj The Epic]

The role I think it would be, which is Bus Driver, would be scum sided.

I've seen more town bus drivers than scum. So idk how you figure that, but even so... What the fuck? That's a scum tell in itself. The MOD said it was an error, so you coming in the thread complaining sounds like you're scum and the wrong kill went through.

You're making shit out of nothing. Especially since I'm talking about ALISAE'S KILL, not the scum kill. Of which Alisae hit town. My guess going into the night was Alisae was going to gun for Nero or you. I thought he'd have a retribution kill for the wagon.

Edit: Alright, he did adjust to Kyouko at the end:

Um Gamma town means scum in Kyouko, Nero, Elbrin, Tywin. Congrats you put yourself in the pool.
You and Tywin actually makes sense.
And Sonia is probably town.

I was thinking it was only the latter three.

[Aj The Epic]

Why would you actually go for me in that scenario anyways? You'd still have Sonia/Nero to worry about.

[Aj The Epic]

I'd just ignore him at this point. The only thing I'd want to wait for is Sonia to see what she has to say over the last few days.

[Aj The Epic]

I'd just ignore him at this point. The only thing I'd want to wait for is Sonia to see what she has to say over the last few days.

[Aj The Epic]

It's almost like I was right for trying to wait for her to catchup.

[Aj The Epic]

How in the fuck is Nero newscum lol

The issue with your wall is it's actually bad. Post 2015 where "Elbrin hasn't mentioned pine..." is because PINE WAS INACTIVE for the majority of d1. 2323 right away should make you question your entire premise of them being scum together but instead you just push it harder.

Post 2489 is complete bullshit because everyone in this game thought Elbrin put Mozamis at L-1, not lynch. That was Nero's unbolded vote that caused the issue, not Elbrin's hammer.

You see what's going on here? You're skewing the context of literally everything to whatever fits you best.

[Aj The Epic]

Gerry you need to give a reason. You were saying Tywin could die earlier in this day.

[Aj The Epic]

I'm glad I quit listening to Tywin pages ago. It's really helped my blood pressure.

[Aj The Epic]

Maybe Gerry is right...
Oh god that just means Pine and Elb are stupid

*groan*

You're obviously unconvinced seeing as you are all talk.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah but what everyone forgets is scum get genuinely angry at being lynched too... it's not a town-only thing and i'd argue scum is even angrier about the prospect of a lynch than town.

[Aj The Epic]

Never lynch Sonia

Why?

[Aj The Epic]

While we're at it, I'm still not wanting to lynch Pine for his D1 slip.

[Aj The Epic]

Never lynch Sonia

Why?

Titus, I need this answered. Speaking of which, Dierfire's game just finished here and was a scum game for Sonia.

Tywin's dying today if I have anything to say about it. I'm not comfortable with how shifty his reads are. Not just over today, either. One of his main arguments was that he hadn't been as wrong as the rest of the town but now we've got double vote wagons he was comfortable with that came up town. If that was the source of his confidence, it doesn't show as he's still fully convinced Pine/Nero are scum. Well... his reads today have been kinda bad too.

And yes part of it is I can't justify actually letting Tywin into a potential lylo because I WILL lynch him. It's not only an embarrassment to lose to this kind of play but there's also just too many things he's weaseled out of. At least give me the ability to read his posts with "This was a town player's actual frustration" or "yeah this was caught scum we should've hung d1".

As I said earlier, I'm forcing myself to hold Pine as a town read for right now. I don't have any direct opinion of Nero since he did sheep the wagon shift yesterday rather easily. Elbrin is probs town until further notice.

In short, the two we're accepting as conftown need to be actively involved here.

[Aj The Epic]

You voted Gamma did you not? And also Kyouko? So are you claiming four scum reads there?

[Aj The Epic]

Because people don't answer questions

[Aj The Epic]

Because people don't answer questions

Yeah...

Do you have questions for me aj? Any thoughts or something?





So lonely :c

Let's play the game of 'if tywin flips town...' for a moment.

Then what?

[Aj The Epic]

I mean I'd be fine lynching Nero with the explicit understanding that Tywin dies in any forthcoming Lylo situation but I'm pretty lukewarm on any read right now.

[Aj The Epic]

Does it really matter which way though? Game's over and I don't think Scum!Pine would fuck that up and completely toss his chance to win out the window.

[Aj The Epic]

??? Why does Elbrin no kill?

Keep in mind, I have as mafia no killed in situations as a solo mafia before. I would not in this situation follow that pattern. There is 0 benefit to a no kill.

[Aj The Epic]

he would have to know of a RB role and somehow manipulate out a fake claim of sonia of her own free will?

[Aj The Epic]

What kind of person looks at the proceeding events that have occurred thus far and goes "Yeah Aj's definitely the scum here"?

[Aj The Epic]

Alisae's vig pool was Tywin/Nero/SSBM if I'm not mistaken. I looked yesterday because I thought the SSBM shot was strange as hell.

[Aj The Epic]

Titus' theory that a RC could suggest this, but the issue is a RC reveals the "3x" modifier of a RB and all of the sudden they don't make this play because realistically RB is going to use it D1, 2 and 3, not 2-4. I know for certain I wouldn't gambit giving town a free lynch here if I had all this shit to clear out (Titus mainly). And we know Titus can't be the RB (which is the scenario where this happens if Titus is too worried about town going "why is titus alive", titus' only scum role is Doctor.

In short, scum making a no kill is just too coincidental to work by occam's razor.

[Aj The Epic]

Well the two viable solutions I see is:

Pine is the RB, got the block

Pine lied, NK'd for this and is suiciding to take one more townie.

Pine doesn't win the game with this claim. It would almost 100% be ego shit, which isn't a move I'd make in his position (I'd scrap it for a win if I had any chance to).

[Aj The Epic]

TBH in this setup, isn't a RB negative utility to town though? So much shit it can block from town, so little from scum.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Sonia

Alright this game's over anyways.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah I can spam useless shit when I'm wrong too

I think it's L-1 but we might as well hammer. The gauntlet has already been thrown on this gambit, and it's game whether today or tomorrow.

[Aj The Epic]

Nah. Give me one good reason scum isn't involved with Pine/Sonia right now.

[Aj The Epic]

No, it does make sense in the fact that nothing said nothing done is your loss and you have to do SOMETHING.

[Aj The Epic]

I mean, it isn't. This game is completely based around Pine's claim, anything sonia does is largely irrelevant.

[Aj The Epic]

nice n solid anti town play lol.

[Aj The Epic]

So then your basis for saying I'm scum is...? If not for lynching you (The optimal play), what is it?

[Aj The Epic]

Gerry I'm waiting for you to play the game but you don't seem that interested. Like all you do is parrot yourself and pray that your own ego is big enough to get someone lynched even though it's among the worst plays that can be made given today's context. Your play is OBJECTIVELY bad.