Mini 1860 - Game Over!

TwoFace · Post Post #975 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:32 pm

In post 966, gerryoat wrote:well gear cant be solo scum. since he hasnt been here to do actions. so there might be 2 mafs left and gamma be vig

In post 968, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 949, eagerSnake wrote:
Prodding Gear. They have 24hr to make a game-advancing post. (Gear was prodded at end of last phase and responded. They are also V/LA on weekends.)

In post 969, TwoFace wrote:Gerry is a terrible reader

Thanks for proving my point.

gerryoat · Post Post #976 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:43 pm

you should have clarified

TwoFace · Post Post #977 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:45 pm

Anyone with a 2nd grade reading level can tell what I was talking about.

gerryoat · Post Post #978 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:46 pm

Twoface, why are you such a jerk all the time lol.

TwoFace · Post Post #979 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:50 pm

In post 978, gerryoat wrote:Twoface, why are you such a jerk all the time lol.

I just say what I'm thinking. That's the wonderful thing about the Internet. I don't have to be fake.

My comment came right after gamma corrected you're mistake. How you thought I was talking about anything else is beyond me.

havingfitz · Post Post #980 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 1:12 am

In post 912, gerryoat wrote:I would lynch in Gamma/Gear/Lil Uzi today

In post 850, gerryoat wrote:I think there has to be more than 1 scum on the key wagon. That wagon was way too easy.

That would point to JarJar or TwoFace. So why vote Gear over one of them? Why are neither of them in your scumpool? What are your cases on Gear and LUV?

JarJarDrinks · Post Post #981 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:08 am

In post 944, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 943, JarJarDrinks wrote:
In post 930, Gamma Emerald wrote:Why would I claim vig if I were SK/mafia? SK gets lynched once the mafia is gone, or is Night killed. Mafia gets killed by the real one.
I get what ur saying. But:

- I don't get how a town vig shoots someone he's townreading
- I think the town has too much power for u to be a vig
>It was based on a keyen scum flip. I decided to shoot because the association wasn't there and I wanted to find more associations

What about keyen being scum pointed to a town dave?

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #982 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:10 am

In post 981, JarJarDrinks wrote:
In post 944, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 943, JarJarDrinks wrote:
In post 930, Gamma Emerald wrote:Why would I claim vig if I were SK/mafia? SK gets lynched once the mafia is gone, or is Night killed. Mafia gets killed by the real one.
I get what ur saying. But:

- I don't get how a town vig shoots someone he's townreading
- I think the town has too much power for u to be a vig
>It was based on a keyen scum flip. I decided to shoot because the association wasn't there and I wanted to find more associations
What about keyen being scum pointed to a town dave?

VCA p much.

Lil Uzi Vert · Post Post #983 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 4:10 am

In post 972, gerryoat wrote:hi uzi what are your reads

Hey!

I'm down with one of Fitz, Gamma, or Gear today.

I feel like there is a small chance we are all being duped by JJD but I think he's town this game.

TwoFace · Post Post #984 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:29 am

Gamma. Are you compulsive?

havingfitz · Post Post #985 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:35 am

Trying to wrap my head around whether it is in town's best interests to lynch Gamma today or not.

Here are our options

1. Lynch Gamma today ::

D4 = LYLO

2. If we don't lynch Gamma and we lynch town?

Lynch town

w/N3 Gamma shoots mafia/N3 Gamma nk'd ::

D4 = MYLO

Lynch town

w/N3 Gamma shoots town/N3 Gamma nk'd ::

D4 = Game Over Scum win

Lynch town

w/N3 Gamma doesn't shoot/N3 Gamma nk'd ::

D4 = LYLO

Lynch town

w/N3 Gamma doesn't shoot and a VT is nk'd ::

D4 = LYLO if Gamma is vig

....total cluster if Gamma is SK.

3. If we don't lynch Gamma and we lynch mafia?

Lynch scum

w/N3 Gamma shoots mafia ::

D4 = Game Over Town win

Lynch scum

w/N3 Gamma shoots town ::

D4 = MYLO

Lynch scum

w/N3 Gamma doesn't shoot and is NK'd ::

D4 = MYLO - 1

Lynch scum

w/N3 Gamma doesn't shoot and a VT is NK'd ::

D4 = MYLO - 1 if Gamma is vig....MYLO if Gamma is SK.

This should point to allowing Gamma to live. The only two bad outcomes are within Scenario 2:

1) if we lynch town today and then Gamma shoots town N3 while at the same time being shot by scum. Then the game would be over.

This option is eliminated if we lynch town and Gamma assures us he will not shoot at anything N3.

It's in his best interests not to whether he is a vig or an SK.

2) if we lynch town today and then Gamma doesn't carry out a shot N3 AND scum shoot a VT instead of Gamma. IF Gamma were an SK this option would create all kinds of bad outcomes for any alignment. So it would not be in scum's best interests to target a VT instead of Gamma.

Trouble is if we don't do Scenario 1...we aren't sure what scenario we will get until the flip. Scenario 2 has obvious benefits and no real downfalls. And Scenario 2 (i.e. shit...we mislynched again) pretty much guarantees we get to D4 if Gamma doesn't shoot.

tl:dr;

I still think Gamma is best left spared today and see how tonight goes. If we lynch town by mistake...Gamma just has to assure us he won't shoot tonight.

Thoughts?

P.edit...Compulsive or not would obv matter.

havingfitz · Post Post #986 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:48 am

ISO time. Starting with the shorter ones:

LUV (35 posts ...1 repeat)

ISO 0-6 - RVS vote on keyen..a little banter and an unvote. meh
ISO 7 - Questions Gear wrt keyen.
ISO 8 - Game theory....
ISO 9-10 - Questions Rask on keyen. Something odd wrt Rask.
ISO 12 - Gives PsychoDave and Rask encouragement.
ISO 14 - Questions keyen read on Gamma and Vij...doesn't know what to make of Key.
ISO 15 - Town reading JarJar.
ISO 19 - Defends JarJar a bit from Gamma suspicions.
ISO 20 - Questions/disagrees with JarJar case on Gamma. Makes believable comments and an L-3 vote towards Grey. Getting town vibe.
ISO 24 - D2 obv vote on Grey.
ISO 28 - Post claim vote on Gamma. NAI.

@ LUV wrt post 896 (ISO 30)...what does Kyouko's suspicions have to do with the fact Gamma NK'd him? Whether Kyouko was "spot on" or not...why would the Vig or SK care? In the Kyouko posts you quote...there is no mention of Gamma that I can see.

ISO 31-34 - Doesn't think Gamma is town, notes Gear's activity level and states he's "down with" Gamma, Gear or me.

@ Luv...is your willingness to vote Gear or I based primarily on activity level or do you have actual suspicions you can elaborate on?

Summary...

I'm less suspect of LUV after having read his ISO. He's a decent town lean now.

Gear (21 posts)

ISO 0 - RVS on keyen
ISO 1 - v/LA announcement
ISO 2-5 - A little banter with keyen ending with an unvote.
ISO 6 - Naked (aka coinflip) vote on TwoFace.
ISO 7 - Meta defends keyen.
ISO 8 - Responds to vote by JarJar with a vote on JarJar.
ISO 9-12 - Decent posting...nothing suspect.
ISO 14-15 - Asks for why on JarJar's town read on Rask.
ISO 16-18 - Defends keyen...keyen only has 2 votes at this point. This feels a bit town as it could encourage voters to not bother starting up another keyen wagon...which Gear would have no forsight or onjection to. Seems genuine vice white-knighting.
ISO 19 - Unvotes JarJar. Seems a little suspect of Vij AND keyen for how they interacted/read each other.
ISO 20 - Last post. Permanent v/LA.

Summary...

Not much to work with but I think I'm leaning town on Gear as well. Not as much as LUV but more than pre-ISO.

Gerry next........

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #987 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:52 am

In post 984, TwoFace wrote:Gamma. Are you compulsive?

No.

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #988 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:52 am

In post 983, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:
In post 972, gerryoat wrote:hi uzi what are your reads
Hey!

I'm down with one of Fitz, Gamma, or Gear today.

I feel like there is a small chance we are all being duped by JJD but I think he's town this game.

Please read my day 3 posts. I'm not sk or mafia.

TwoFace · Post Post #989 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:41 am

In post 987, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 984, TwoFace wrote:Gamma. Are you compulsive?
No.

So why shoot n1? Mislynch = no shoot.

Lil Uzi Vert · Post Post #990 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:46 am

In post 988, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 983, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:
In post 972, gerryoat wrote:hi uzi what are your reads
Hey!

I'm down with one of Fitz, Gamma, or Gear today.

I feel like there is a small chance we are all being duped by JJD but I think he's town this game.
Please read my day 3 posts. I'm not sk or mafia.

I did, I wasn't convinced.

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #991 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:46 am

Why not?

Lil Uzi Vert · Post Post #992 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:04 am

@Fitz:

I stated recently that I don't see anyone town aligned shooting Kyouko based on those posts and to clarify I guess his overall play as well. I never played SK before so I don't know the general mindset of one. I'm scum reading your slot for your unexplained TR on Gerry.

@Gamma:

Your reasoning sounds like bull, I'm sorry.

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #993 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:07 am

If I'm mafia the vig shoots me. If I'm SK my only chance at winning is to reach 3p lylo with a mafia and a townie.

Lil Uzi Vert · Post Post #994 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:14 am

I rather not have to worry about it. I feel we will have to if we don't lynch scum today and you're still alive Day 4.

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #995 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:15 am

No, I'm not resing until I get you to admit there's no way I'm not a vig.

gerryoat · Post Post #996 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:20 am

In post 980, havingfitz wrote:
In post 912, gerryoat wrote:I would lynch in Gamma/Gear/Lil Uzi today

In post 850, gerryoat wrote:I think there has to be more than 1 scum on the key wagon. That wagon was way too easy.
That would point to JarJar or TwoFace. So why vote Gear over one of them? Why are neither of them in your scumpool? What are your cases on Gear and LUV?

I've liked JarJar's content today. I can see TwoFace, as I said, he could be scum with his awful read on me and pushing on me. And I'm mostly doing POE on who i don't want to vote right now and that's how I came up with Gear and Luv. I would be willing to vote in Gear/Luv/Twoface as it stands currently.

gerryoat · Post Post #997 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:23 am

@ Gamma, you have unlimited shots? You have to realize that in a game with a Doc, Cop and a Town Commuter, that seems a bit much.

gerryoat · Post Post #998 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:25 am

In post 983, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:
In post 972, gerryoat wrote:hi uzi what are your reads
Hey!

I'm down with one of Fitz, Gamma, or Gear today.

I feel like there is a small chance we are all being duped by JJD but I think he's town this game.

Do you not FOS me? You said that you fos fitz for having an unexplained TR on me. Which would mean you are weary of me, and see no reason to TR me. Why am I not in your lynch pool if thats the case?

gerryoat · Post Post #999 (ISO) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:29 am

I don't think Gamma is an optimal lynch today.

1.) He's SK. He has to shoot within what we all agree in after our lynch. If he doesn't, and shoots someone else, he's auto lynched the next day and loses his only win con.

2.) He's actual Vig, and we mislynch him and we no longer have a Vig to shoot for us.