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This forum is for discussion of individual Open Setups, including theoretical balance.
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Realeo
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Post Post #2 (isolation #0) » Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:35 am

Post by Realeo »

one of the tied players will be randomly
Stop. Just no. The method shall not be randomness.
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

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Post Post #3 (isolation #1) » Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:39 am

Post by Realeo »

This is one of those weird game that I don't have to run computer simulation:

4 Towns Evicted : 7-5 (EV:2/12)

3 Towns Evicted : 7-4 (EV:3/11)

2 Towns Evicted : 7-3 (EV:4/10)

1 Towns Evicted : 7-2 (EV:5/9)

0 Towns Evicted : 7-1 (EV:6/7)

Part 1 of 2
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?
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Post Post #5 (isolation #2) » Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:49 am

Post by Realeo »

Prob 4 Towns Evicted : (11 4) / (16 4) = 18.1%

Prob 3 Towns Evicted : (11 3) (5 1) / (16 4) = 45.3%

Prob 2 Towns Evicted: (11 2) (5 2) / (16 4) = 30.2%

Prob 1 Town Evicted : (11 1) (5 3) / (16 4) = 6%

Prob 0 Town Evicted : (5 4) / (16 4) = Literally approaching 0%

Total EV:

18.1% X 1/6 + 45.3% X 3 / 11 + 30.2% X 2 /5 + 6% X 5/9 = 3%

Conclusion:
On this setup, on average, town has 3% chance town to win and mafia has 97 % chance to win

I am sorry. This does not work. :(
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?
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Post Post #7 (isolation #3) » Thu Dec 22, 2016 1:13 am

Post by Realeo »

It should be significantly better.

4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)

3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)

2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)

1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)

0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win

Prob 4 Town : 27.1%

Prob 3 Town : 48.3%

Prob 2 Town : 21.7%

Prob 1 Town : 2.6%

Prob 0 Town : 0=)

27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?
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Post Post #9 (isolation #4) » Thu Dec 22, 2016 1:24 am

Post by Realeo »

It should be significantly better.

4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)

3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)

2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)

1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)

0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win

Prob 4 Town : 27.1%

Prob 3 Town : 48.3%

Prob 2 Town : 21.7%

Prob 1 Town : 2.6%

Prob 0 Town : 0=)

27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%

Although, I suspect it would be higher IRL.
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?
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Post Post #11 (isolation #5) » Thu Dec 22, 2016 1:31 am

Post by Realeo »

Possibly town sided. The problem with Nightless Vanila is you cant lynch obv town.
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?
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Post Post #14 (isolation #6) » Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:30 am

Post by Realeo »

What? My calculator said 3.078 so I wrote 3.078%.= 3%

I missed by a SINGLE power of ten.

For your question : It has been solved by mith that EV = (town-maf) / (town+math)
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?
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