Stop. Just no. The method shall not be randomness.one of the tied players will be randomly
[SETUP] Welcome to The Room!
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5238
- Joined: February 11, 2016
- Location: Indonesia
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5238
- Joined: February 11, 2016
- Location: Indonesia
This is one of those weird game that I don't have to run computer simulation:
4 Towns Evicted : 7-5 (EV:2/12)
3 Towns Evicted : 7-4 (EV:3/11)
2 Towns Evicted : 7-3 (EV:4/10)
1 Towns Evicted : 7-2 (EV:5/9)
0 Towns Evicted : 7-1 (EV:6/7)
Part 1 of 2"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5238
- Joined: February 11, 2016
- Location: Indonesia
Prob 4 Towns Evicted : (11 4) / (16 4) = 18.1%
Prob 3 Towns Evicted : (11 3) (5 1) / (16 4) = 45.3%
Prob 2 Towns Evicted: (11 2) (5 2) / (16 4) = 30.2%
Prob 1 Town Evicted : (11 1) (5 3) / (16 4) = 6%
Prob 0 Town Evicted : (5 4) / (16 4) = Literally approaching 0%
Total EV:
18.1% X 1/6 + 45.3% X 3 / 11 + 30.2% X 2 /5 + 6% X 5/9 = 3%
Conclusion:
On this setup, on average, town has 3% chance town to win and mafia has 97 % chance to win
I am sorry. This does not work."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5238
- Joined: February 11, 2016
- Location: Indonesia
It should be significantly better.
4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)
3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)
2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)
1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)
0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win
Prob 4 Town : 27.1%
Prob 3 Town : 48.3%
Prob 2 Town : 21.7%
Prob 1 Town : 2.6%
Prob 0 Town : 0=)
27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
-
Realeo Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5238
- Joined: February 11, 2016
- Location: Indonesia
It should be significantly better.
4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)
3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)
2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)
1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)
0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win
Prob 4 Town : 27.1%
Prob 3 Town : 48.3%
Prob 2 Town : 21.7%
Prob 1 Town : 2.6%
Prob 0 Town : 0=)
27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%
Although, I suspect it would be higher IRL."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5238
- Joined: February 11, 2016
- Location: Indonesia
Possibly town sided. The problem with Nightless Vanila is you cant lynch obv town."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5238
- Joined: February 11, 2016
- Location: Indonesia
What? My calculator said 3.078 so I wrote 3.078%.= 3%
I missed by a SINGLE power of ten.
For your question : It has been solved by mith that EV = (town-maf) / (town+math)"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?
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