[SETUP] Welcome to The Room!
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inspectorscout Mafia Scum
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[SETUP] Welcome to The Room!
Basically, town should use the main thread to coordinate who sends who to what room, so they can lynch the scummiest room. I don't expect a high accuracy on that, but if it happens, the amount of kills changes, which should reduce swing.
Thoughts?Last edited by inspectorscout on Thu Dec 22, 2016 1:22 am, edited 2 times in total.-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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Stop. Just no. The method shall not be randomness.one of the tied players will be randomly"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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This is one of those weird game that I don't have to run computer simulation:
4 Towns Evicted : 7-5 (EV:2/12)
3 Towns Evicted : 7-4 (EV:3/11)
2 Towns Evicted : 7-3 (EV:4/10)
1 Towns Evicted : 7-2 (EV:5/9)
0 Towns Evicted : 7-1 (EV:6/7)
Part 1 of 2"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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inspectorscout Mafia Scum
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Well, triplicate doesn't lynch the whole room. It's also not certain there is scum in each room.In post 1, Gamma Emerald wrote:This seems like a larger version of Triplicate Mafia tbh
First voted for it is!
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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Prob 4 Towns Evicted : (11 4) / (16 4) = 18.1%
Prob 3 Towns Evicted : (11 3) (5 1) / (16 4) = 45.3%
Prob 2 Towns Evicted: (11 2) (5 2) / (16 4) = 30.2%
Prob 1 Town Evicted : (11 1) (5 3) / (16 4) = 6%
Prob 0 Town Evicted : (5 4) / (16 4) = Literally approaching 0%
Total EV:
18.1% X 1/6 + 45.3% X 3 / 11 + 30.2% X 2 /5 + 6% X 5/9 = 3%
Conclusion:
On this setup, on average, town has 3% chance town to win and mafia has 97 % chance to win
I am sorry. This does not work."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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inspectorscout Mafia Scum
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If I calculate your last line, I find 15% which is admittedly still bad, but more doable with changes.
Would changing 1 maf to a townie change much?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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It should be significantly better.
4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)
3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)
2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)
1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)
0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win
Prob 4 Town : 27.1%
Prob 3 Town : 48.3%
Prob 2 Town : 21.7%
Prob 1 Town : 2.6%
Prob 0 Town : 0=)
27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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inspectorscout Mafia Scum
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I thought so, though not by that much
Setup is now 12-4-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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It should be significantly better.
4 Towns Evicted : 8-4 (EV:1/3)
3 Towns Evicted : 8-3 (EV: 5/11)
2 Towns Evicted : 8-2 (EV: 60%)
1 Towns Evicted : 8-1 (EV: 7/9)
0 Towns Evicted : Auto Win
Prob 4 Town : 27.1%
Prob 3 Town : 48.3%
Prob 2 Town : 21.7%
Prob 1 Town : 2.6%
Prob 0 Town : 0=)
27.1% X 1/3 + 5/11 X 48.3 + 60% x 21.7% + 7/9 % 2.6% = 46%
Although, I suspect it would be higher IRL."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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inspectorscout Mafia Scum
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So possibly mostly balanced?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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Possibly town sided. The problem with Nightless Vanila is you cant lynch obv town."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivor
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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What? My calculator said 3.078 so I wrote 3.078%.= 3%
I missed by a SINGLE power of ten.
For your question : It has been solved by mith that EV = (town-maf) / (town+math)"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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Infinity 324 they (pl.)Survivorthey (pl.)
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ok thanksIn post 14, Realeo wrote:What? My calculator said 3.078 so I wrote 3.078%.= 3%
I missed by a SINGLE power of ten.
For your question : It has been solved by mith that EV = (town-maf) / (town+math)-
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inspectorscout Mafia Scum
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Letting scum nightkill the members they lost +1 gives the following (I used realo's numbers for this)
8.13+16.1+10.85+1.95=37%
which is maybe fine, but maybe just a bit too scumsided again.
Another, admittedly less elegant, solution would be to give scum a 1-shot dayvig to be used at any time during the nightless lynches, except for lylo.
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