Pick Your Power: Double Deck (GAME OVER)

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: Vifam

This seems okay. I don't buy that he didn't bid, set-up talk is fine considering this isn't a normal game, and his theory about those voting for Maria doesn't make sense.

Why would scum lie about not bidding?

@Titus: Nope, got everything I wanted. I'm really not comfortable with giving out and talking about information that scum don't need to know though.

@Giga: I just don't buy why he didn't try. I guess it's more anti-alignment if anything but it still pings me.

If you aren't comfortable with talking about this information, why do it?

VOTE: Lil Uzi Vert - the Vifam vote looks like it's a convenient attack, not the result of thinking "is this a thing scum would do?". Claiming but saying you don't want to is trying to fit in/look good. In his last post, saying he "believes" the scum has a daykill feels a bit off... smells like scum not wanting to appear too knowledgeable about scum mechanics.

Is there a reason people are claiming how many cards they missed out on? I can't immediately see the point (though I also can't see any problem with it).

[Fishythefish]

I think I agree that constraining scum's fakeclaims later is a good idea, though. So: I got three cards.

I'm also idly wondering if we should claim something else to make fakeclaims harder - say the remainder of the sum of our card ranks divided by 13. Probably more trouble than it's worth.

[Fishythefish]

Rereading Max's ISO and it seems like he didn't like MoI voting for someone and then immediately announcing v/LA. Early on it also seemed like he was scum reading Titus but realized a case on her wasn't there.

pewit:

@Giga:

See my 329. Just wanted to sort him but it seems like I'm not going to get any further since he ignored my last question towards him.

Was the second half of this about me? If so - "ignored" is a little strong. I didn't post after 329. Because I was asleep.

On 329:

VOTE: Vifam

This seems okay. I don't buy that he didn't bid, set-up talk is fine considering this isn't a normal game, and his theory about those voting for Maria doesn't make sense.

Why would scum lie about not bidding?

@Titus: Nope, got everything I wanted. I'm really not comfortable with giving out and talking about information that scum don't need to know though.

@Giga: I just don't buy why he didn't try. I guess it's more anti-alignment if anything but it still pings me.

If you aren't comfortable with talking about this information, why do it?

VOTE: Lil Uzi Vert - the Vifam vote looks like it's a convenient attack, not the result of thinking "is this a thing scum would do?". Claiming but saying you don't want to is trying to fit in/look good. In his last post, saying he "believes" the scum has a daykill feels a bit off... smells like scum not wanting to appear too knowledgeable about scum mechanics.

Is there a reason people are claiming how many cards they missed out on? I can't immediately see the point (though I also can't see any problem with it).

There seems to be a misunderstanding on why I voted. I'm not voting because I necessarily SR him. A few things he posted pinged me and I wanted to talk about those things with him. I didn't see a reason not to bid but I guess looking back now he may have been confused about the set-up as he thought this game was based on Yu-Gi-Oh! so he might have just said screw it.

As for why I claimed, I realized that this game isn't going to be played how I imagined it would be and that this is going to be the course of discussion for a while. I do acknowledge why I'm not comfortable talking about it in

298

in hopes that those who haven't claimed, won't. I said I believed because I haven't looked in the OP since the game started so I'm not sure.

I'm really not convinced about this explanation for the Vifam vote. If you had some things which pinged you and wanted to discuss, I'd expect your vote post to have questions in it. You don't even address Vifam! This post doesn't read at all as "here are some odd things. Are they scummy? Dunno, better talk about them.".

On the other points - I understand where you are coming from. Your explanations look a little unlikely to me; claiming while discouraging others from claiming, and not reading the rules when talking about them both seem odd.

[Fishythefish]

Creature: why on earth wouldn't you?

[Fishythefish]

Well, don't go getting shot in the face while sitting on that read...

[Fishythefish]

Vigs can be used any time (subject to being activated by the trump card), as can the mafia kill.

Why is LUV town?

[Fishythefish]

I have literally no idea what to make of any of this exchange.

[Fishythefish]

Creature: why do you think Lil Uzi Vert is town?

[Fishythefish]

Oh right. That clears it up then.

[Fishythefish]

@Creature

: can you explain why you think LUV is town? I see someone who doesn't look like they care whether his target is scum, and is trying pretty hard to avoid looking scummy.

[Fishythefish]

Not really. Town should be trying to find scum, and being honest about stuff - that's usually enough to end up looking townish. Scum, not being able to just tell the truth, have to think harder about their posts to look good. I think some of LUV's posts are the result of that kind of thinking.

[Fishythefish]

Not really. Town should be trying to find scum, and being honest about stuff - that's usually enough to end up looking townish. Scum, not being able to just tell the truth, have to think harder about their posts to look good. I think some of LUV's posts are the result of that kind of thinking.

Well, I think you're scum.
Maybe you should have worked on looking less scummy.
Vote McMeno and get some town credit.

Well, I feel silly now

Any reason why McMenno rather than someone else who has done nothing?

@Creature: "target" meaning "person he voted for".

[Fishythefish]

Okay, maybe I can follow you on LUV.

That's the spirit! It's a pretty shiny wagon.

[Fishythefish]

Okay, maybe I can follow you on LUV.

That's the spirit! It's a pretty shiny wagon.

Nah it's a bad wagon he's not scum.

Any reason?

[Fishythefish]

Ah, thanks. Who was the second half of 429 about?

[Fishythefish]

Uzi is town

Why?

[Fishythefish]

The Ace of Clubs is pretty damn antitown. Disabling cops 4/13 of the time far outweighs a protection 1/13 of the time that will probably miss anyway. It's one of few cards that if a card cop found it, I'd consider lynching on that basis.

Falsely claiming random.org and admitting to a very antitown card would be a really bold scumplay, though. I tend to believe Transcend randomised.

[Fishythefish]

(That should say disabling cops 1/4 of the time, ofc)

[Fishythefish]

I had a look at the Transcend wagon. I'm really underwhelmed. Can't see myself going that way any time soon.

[Fishythefish]

17 pages in a day... seems excessive.

I'm soon going to have a read, mostly around the major wagons. If I could cheekily ask for help from the people who've been

spamming

generating all this lovely content:
1) Could you summarise/point to any reasons the main wagonees are scum?
2) Has anyone given any reasons LUV is town (beyond "because he is")? I'm worried that a perfectly good wagon has been stalled by nothing more than repeated unsubstantiated assertions.

[Fishythefish]

It's clear what NAI means, but what does it stand for?

-Mixed feelings about FishytheFish. 451 seems towny'ish, but less impressed by most of his other contributions to this point which seem rather filler'ish.

This is exactly how I feel about myself too

Uzi is good town and is showing activity, it's a terrible lynch. I wouldn't oppose the leading wagon unless it just felt utterly awful.

OK! So, oppose it by explaining

why

you think he's town. You say you've played with him before - what is it in his play that looks more like UziTown than UziScum? Right now, you're just sitting there shouting "Uzi is town". It's slightly dispiriting, but not remotely convincing. And without any experience of Uzi, he sure looks like scum.

People who are getting some interest and I should think about: LUV, Jackel, Spyrex, Vedith, Maria maybe?

Uzi

No new thoughts, really. Posting since I last thought about him is fine.

Jackel

Very information heavy, read light. But IIoA (is that still a term?) is not a scumtell. A couple of things ping me as town - references to "not recording reads" and "I remember thinking Vedith is scum"; relying on/thinking about your previous reads absent of logic is something only town can really do - scum have to reconstruct them, 'cos the reads fake.

Spyrex

His semi-claim is weird. But not at all scummy. We shouldn't lynch Spyrex.

Vedith

Has done nothing in lots of posts. No real read.

Maria

Has done even less in lots of posts. No real read.

The pushes against Vedith and Maria (started by rb's excellent 1156 look decently protown). We could do much worse than sheeping rb here.

[Fishythefish]

Cheers. Good acronym.

[Fishythefish]

If I can't distill any strong scumreads out of this nonsense of a day 1 (which is nearly where I am right now... I still think LUV is a bit scummy, but I'm kind of losing steam), I'm going to pick a town-looking wagon and jump on it. The people advocating Maria and Vedith are looking pretty good.

Not sure if that's "agreeing with policy lynching people".

[Fishythefish]

That's a card flip. It's showing what we get next


Same rank as the gov. Not good. Rank veto or card discard or shuffle the deck if at all possible

But that shouldn't be possible.

Mod: If a player has the queen of hearts, does the heart function activate when a queen of clubs is trump?

It's beta deck rig then. Which means someone PUT the J at the top of the deck. Scum gov and scum 4 of clovers

Not sure if someone has already addressed this - but it doesn't stack up.

1) Today, the trump card is still the queen of clubs
2) Tonight, it's the jack of spades
3) Tomorrow day, it's something else

So, the governors

won't be activated

by this Jack. Nor, for that matter, will the Hated and Beloved powers in the spades column. The Jack of Spades is a very antitown trump card in the day only.

Speaking of which -

if you hold the remaining Jack of Spades, you must veto spades tonight (or rig the deck for a non-spade)

. Spades are massively antitown during the day. Really, really bad. They have all the crappy antitown vote messing powers, and none of the vengeful/double lynch/innocent child goodness of the other suits. If Spades are trumps tomorrow, the jack of spades holder is an autolynch.

[Fishythefish]

Pretty sure it's not... vengeful are both clubs?

[Fishythefish]

rb Dec 03, 03:36pm Dec 06, 01:22pm 0 days 0 hours 204
Creature Dec 03, 02:29pm Dec 06, 01:20pm 0 days 0 hours 181
Transcend Dec 03, 06:09pm Dec 06, 01:23pm 0 days 0 hours 170
Titus Dec 03, 02:31pm Dec 06, 01:23pm 0 days 0 hours 158
kraska77 Dec 03, 02:30pm Dec 06, 12:00pm 0 days 1 hour 125
MariaR Dec 03, 02:41pm Dec 06, 01:23pm 0 days 0 hours 106
Dunnstral Dec 03, 03:59pm Dec 06, 04:24am 0 days 8 hours 103

So basically if you are listed here and aren't scum then you really need to re-evaluate why you post so fucking often as it makes the game un-readable for people who aren't trolls.

This Public Service Announcement brought to you by people with common sense!

Really, really this. This huge but mostly contentless activity just buries those of us who check in a few times a day - there's always so much to read, and so little to care about. If you keep it up, we're going to have countless replacements, and they'll never read the thread.

[Fishythefish]

@kraska: thanks!

@Dunn: have you read this post? It explains that the jack is never going to be in play in a day phase. So it doesn't help scum govs.

[Fishythefish]

@Fish: I can link you to one of my completed scum games if you would like.

Yes please, actually. And a town one too, please. No promises I'll read them, but I might.

[Fishythefish]

Beloved only triggers for lynches, not other kills. So like governor, it's not in play with this card. Otherwise yeah, spades would just utterly suck night and day.

[Fishythefish]

at the moment i think Vedith is the best vote, so if you townread him and are one of the names in large print i'd like to know why and who your alternative is. i would rather focus on a lynch that hits a scummy player with set-up information that supports their scumminess rather than vice versa so keep that in mind.

I'd be very OK with a Vedith lynch. I don't townread him, and his wagon looks on the townie side. I'm currently happier with the Uzi wagon - I see nothing townie about him, and several fairly small but decent points that make him scummy.

Why is Vedith scummy - and what is that set-up information that supports that? Sorry if I'm being blind.

[Fishythefish]

Not far wrong. More "I can see myself voting Vedith - try to convince me".

Vedith - who do you think is scum, and why?

[Fishythefish]

I think I'd like the governors to claim. Hidden governors are a terrible idea - at least if they are in the open we can lynch the hell out them if they use the ability. Stealth vigging of them is FBM. The hidden bulletproof stopping a kill is waaaay less important than a possible missed lynch.

Anyone see a reason not to demand these claims on pain of lynch?

[Fishythefish]

Also, the bulletproof isn't going to stop a kill - the scum ain't shooting up there when it's club time.

[Fishythefish]

governers claim when a jack is trumps during a day period, not need otherwise

@Giga: go ahead if you want, i suspect the Vedith push is a waste of time personally

Why? I don't think we should wait for it to be obvious it's worth scum lying. Right now, it'll be a hard call, and town will get useful information. On Jack-day, scum governors will just keep quiet.

[Fishythefish]

It does end the day (source: the rules)

[Fishythefish]

Do i need to go on another tirade about how bad it is for us to claim al kinds of shit?

I'm not proposing we claim "all kinds of shit". I'm proposing we claim a single card - because it's very antitown, and scum won't own up to it if a Jack comes up. If you don't think we should claim it - yes, please say why.

[Fishythefish]

I'd thought about stealth vigs (though forgot royalty). My thinking here is:

- Scum stealth/royalty vigs can *already* shoot the governors in the face quite easily. The top 6 are going to have loads of royalty, and 2 of them have governors (even before eliminating any scums in there)
- Governor is an exceptionally antitown role if it comes up - it's

much worse

than missing a day, as we can lynch town but not scum. I'd be very surprised if we don't have at least one scuvernor.
- No way will scum claim it when a jack comes up. So we should make them claim it early (or lie early)

[Fishythefish]

Oh, and on the general claiming point: yeah, the bar for claiming should be high, and any claiming should be well-discussed before we jump in. I think the jack of clubs meets that high bar.

[Fishythefish]

Easy setup post now. Difficult scumhunting post tonight.

Do i need to go on another tirade about how bad it is for us to claim al kinds of shit?

I'm not proposing we claim "all kinds of shit". I'm proposing we claim a single card - because it's very antitown, and scum won't own up to it if a Jack comes up. If you don't think we should claim it - yes, please say why.

2x royalty vig. Allows the holder to kill anyone if they know they have a Queen, jack or king

2x stealth vig. allows the holder to kill anyone if they can mention a card they have in their possession.

Card knowledge = ability to kill people.

Also it gives more information towards potential NK targets, potential Fruit vendor targets.

With every piece of information, we help scum solve the puzzle.

I think you are too stressed about these kills.

There are 13 ranks in the game. That means each one will be active around once in the game. That means that, being generous, we can expect 2 royalty shots and 2 stealth shots. Even if those are all scum, that's 4 kills (and that's a real stretch) - and the scum are very, very likely to make them anyway. We already have one card claim; we're clearly going to get some others. So the stealth vig is probably going to be able to kill either way.

Claiming the odd card without fruit allergies gives next to no info about fruit vendor targets.

I'll stop harping on about claiming governor - I'm keen, but it looks like it isn't happening and it's probably a distraction. But I think a blanket "no claims" policy is likely to hurt the town.

I don't think the rigger is scum. This same rig would be pretty grim if it was going to be active during the day (Hated, Governor, Beloved), so unless they are scum misunderstanding mechanics (possible, I suppose) it seems an unlikely scum move.

You mean a guaranteed no docs night with a cop card that likely wasn't picked due to the more likely effect of just disabling trackers and watchers? Cmon man.

Huh? No docs, trackers or watchers could be achieved by picking loads of ranks. For example, with this card, there aren't any docs, trackers or watchers to be disabled! On the town side, the cop is a 100% sane investigation tonight. No godfathers, millers, ascetics, roleblockers active.

[Fishythefish]

Vedith's claim with error about when the Jack applies doesn't seem likely scum. I kind of doubt it's a pretend misunderstanding (I don't think scum do that kind of thing much), and I imagine the scum have their shit together a bit more than that.

Drone, eh? Better read him.

VOTE: Drone

Nothing in his ISO makes me think town. Over and over he implies somebody is scummy or otherwise bad, without actually going so far as saying so or making any real attempt at a read on anyone. He either doesn't follow these up, or actively walks them back. This feels an attempt to look like you are doing something, rather than actually doing anything.

It makes me sad, but I've practically given up on getting an overall picture of Day 1. I couldn't give you a narrative of it. I'm just ISO'ing people and reading a tiny bit of context as and when they become important.

[Fishythefish]

Drone is somewhere around L-2

[Fishythefish]

Poor Drone had 1 vote last time he posted.

No hammers without a chance to claim.

[Fishythefish]

I have the bad feels about the Dronewagon because of his always being potato and just how flash this flashwagon has been. If i die pls sort transcend's and titus's slot and listen to vifam in my absence

thx doods

Is he always a potato who pops up and casts aspersions on people?

Is a flashwagon less likely good than a non-flash wagon? Yeah, it probably is actually. Wagons on scum should stall a bit easier.

[Fishythefish]

Though; I feel the game was primed for a flashwagon on a decent target. Lack of strong wagons, arguments or drama and a generally soul-sapping D1 will do that.

[Fishythefish]

It seems likely that there was a decent wagon on scum late yesterday - makes it more likely scum would participate in the speed wagon on Drone. That's {Vedith, Uzi, Transcend}. I still think Vedith's claim is fairly unlikely to be scum. I'm really struggling to get a read on Transcend; his claims are pretty null overall IMO (random.org antitown but plausible; rigging the deck last night protown). Uzi still seems a good bet to me. There was a very decent push against him for much of the day yesterday, and his wagon never really gained any momentum.

VOTE: Lil Uzi Vert

[Fishythefish]

On LUV? Who the fuck knows, I don't understand the Kison scum reads, SpyreX is playing like him regardless and Fishy seems pretty decent to actually trying to scum hunt.
I wouldn't lynch anyone that was on the LUV wagon, and I don't think there was scum on there.

If you think that LUV had a 6 person wagon without scum on it, you should vote for him! No way scum would entirely pass that up if he was town.

[Fishythefish]

There was a very decent push against him for much of the day yesterday, and his wagon never really gained any momentum

i would be giving weight to this if it werent for the fact that the only people who fought that wagon yesterday are town

Who do you mean?

[Fishythefish]

Drone thought uzi was scum. Vifam and rb are not confirmed town (IMO, rb is townish but nowhere near certain, Vifam I don't know).

Either way, why drop that line? My thinking is:
1) That wagon was super-fast
2) Scum would have been nervous of it; a super-fast town lynch can look bad
3) So likely they had a good reason to want Drone dead. It being a counterwagon makes loads of sense.

[Fishythefish]

Why Jackel? I had some mild reasons to think he's town which I'll look up some time, and I can't remember any reasons to think he's scum.

[Fishythefish]

(Incidentally, I'm aware that I'm being crap and lazy this morning. I'm going to have a serious session of trying to stop being crap and lazy this evening.)

[Fishythefish]

I honestly have no idea how several people in this game have reads on nearly everyone. I'm way less certain that that; I'm certainly nowhere near a PoE process for a lynch.

UNVOTE: Lil Uzi Vert
I've had no interesting new thoughts on LUV in like 50 pages. He's a decent lynch, but no better than that - I think/hope we can do better. kraska makes a fair point as to why the wagon might have gone slowly yesterday - for someone on the wagon, pressure against it from rb in particular was kinda dispiriting. I can see that as a reason it didn't get traction despite some decent reasons and pushes on it.

Jackel

Has done zero scumhunting. No real justification for reads or attempts to work out if anyone is scum. A couple of turns of phrase still seem mildly townish to me (see my post here).

@Jackel

: why are Max and Transcend likely scum? Do you have any other reads?

It depresses me how frequently I read up on a possible lynch candidate in this game, and think "Meh. They've done nothing, really. Is that scummy?".

Transcend

As I said a little while ago, I find Transcend's claims pretty uninteresting from a read point of view. He's claimed:
- Using random.org, getting one scumtastic card and one null card.
- Placing his scumtastic card on the deck.
Neither claim was under any pressure - Transcend's play on this since using the draft has been distinctly protown. The random.org claim isn't that unlikely.

kraska's points here and here are sensible; Transcend's failure to push on both Max and LUV is weird. Particularly LUV, as he had a pretty stonking wagon for much of the day. Transcend never really responds, except to call himself obvtown and kraska tunnelled; pretty much statements that could apply to any attack ever.

Max

I don't see Max as scum; I really think he's trying to work out who the scum are. Max's reading things into Creature's reads is weird, but doesn't seem that scummy. Trying to leverage dead townies in a misleading way sounds like a parody of scum, rather than something scum actually does.

[Fishythefish]

Funny, I say I would move to a larger wagon, and the lil wagon disperses. Noted.

What do you read into that? While I don't know the motivations of anyone else on the wagon, I think these are likely entirely unrelated.

[Fishythefish]

OK, thanks.

[Fishythefish]

RB's investigation was 100% a town on Transcend. I thought about playing that coy to prevent a Transcend-kill, but I think it's more likely to do harm than good.

RB was scumreading Transcend yesterday, and

saying he should be copped

. Here are some late-day posts on him (after early day townreads):

Just kill Vedith today Menno, Titus can get copped along with MariaR and if ur rly that insistent we can cop Transcend - I'm like 99% sure he's town so id rather sort by investigative and not have to waste daytime arguing about his alignment

Rb is like how ira was to me
I don't have a reason to sr him but I want to have one so I can push him

and then he gets permab& for being a 1337 h4x0r?

I've crumbed all of my cards btw

Have fun setup nerds

well what are you waiting four

Ok honestly this shit is confusing and i think I've obvtowned my slot enough to not get lynched ever

Like only person who DOESN'T townread me is k77 who's been confbias on me since what, page 1 or some shit. Lol.

I bid you adieu.

just scum things

Theres two many variables tbh.

Im actually seeing transcend scum now lul

McMenno is town I'm fairly sure.

I'm open to transcend being scum

We Rent lynching transcend somekne csn cop him so the town csn function

Type 1 if ur actually a dog

1

Pedit: transcend is probbaly scum then tbh

And today:

Transcend is obvtown.

VOTE: kraska77

And kraska knows it

ur town, im town, lets be town together

*bumps dicks with transcend*

LUV goes into the Drone pile of being awkward af and i just dont feel him being scum either. someone can cop him later but for now imo we just ignore that slot.

Transcend is just obvtown

There's no way for a cop result last night to be incorrect, so Transcend is clear.

The scum seem to be killing people who are doing stuff. Bastards. We should honour rb's memory by also doing stuff. I'm really not on for lynching LUV now - his two stalwart town defenders have just been shot by the scum.

VOTE: Jackal

[Fishythefish]

If you're town, you think about the game, read what cards are in play, and know what the hell is going on.

If you're scum, you also think about the game, read what cards are in play, and know what the hell is going on - and pretending you don't would be weird. So, either way, Maria's playstyle is very different from yours and mine. Why do you think this is MariaScum faking not reading the rules, rather than MariaTown actually not reading the rules?

[Fishythefish]

@mod:

was my vote deliberately not counted because I misspelled "Jackel"?

VOTE: Jackel98

We are lynching in rb's lynch pool - {mariaR/vedith/titus/jackel}. rb was obviously town, but if those reads were wrong scum would have had little motivation to kill him. So, townies should get their asses in gear, read up on these players, and vote one of them.

Of those players, Titus is the one I know least about. I'll be having a read of her tonight.

[Fishythefish]

Caught up since my last post. To-do: read up on Titus.

I agree with Vecna here that Titus's questions to the mod look fake and intended to convey ignorance/helpfulness and look good.

The last 10 pages leave me very opposed to a Maria lynch. Her annoyance at being scumread for doing nothing feels totally genuine to me, and it's a much more likely sentiment for a townie.

Did I miss something? Is the only reason you're limiting to these four because RB flipped town and had scum reads on them? Just because he flipped town does not mean he is infallible. Obviously we should take the reads into consideration, but I don't see why we should lock ourselves down to them.

rb had a lot of reads out there, which were quite static. If those reads were wrong, rb was very unthreatening for scum. His small pool of potential scum are therefore a good whack more likely than the average to be scum. Without a really excellent case on anyone, that's where we should be lynching.

[Fishythefish]

UNVOTE:

I'm not up for a lynch without a claim. There are some claims that give us information (Cop), and *possibly* some combinations of cards we don't lynch.

[Fishythefish]

Is anyone keeping a list of all the claims (both lacks of cards, and cards)? If so, could they post it? Titus, I'm thinking you might

[Fishythefish]

OK. So, here's some card thinking. Criticism welcome:

1. Scum shot rb. rb was one of five players above Titus. Two of them were bulletproof today.
2. A 40% risk of shooting a blank seems kind of unlikely. So very likely, either one or both Jacks of Clubs are scum, or the scum have a 6 of clubs.
3. We have loads of claims out there. Scum royalty and stealth vigs are going to be able to kill. So there's not much harm in a small number of further claims. We shouldn't be scared to claim things that are useful.
4. So the remaining six of clubs should claim (on pain of being lynched later). It's a card that tells us a reasonable amount about scumminess/interactions, and there's little harm in it.

[Fishythefish]

(I'm still ISO'ing Titus. But while doing so, it's quite easy to get sidetracked into thinking about cards. Her ISO is a trap for setup nerds.)

[Fishythefish]

They were active this morning (I'm talking about rb, not Creature)

[Fishythefish]

Conclusions from reading Titus and Max's case on her:

Titus is probtown. Max is town.

[Fishythefish]

Five of diamonds is null, and uninteresting. King of clubs is rather strong and null - two very strong powers for both factions. Jack of clubs is rather strong and mildly scummy.

VOTE: Jackel

No need to vote for another lynch. If you're town, your pick is probably better than our vote. But I'd really not go for Titus, myself. She's really keen on setup speculation, but that's not scummy. The way she goes about it looks like she's trying to help the town.

Maybe I'll counter that case from Max. I really think you can do better.

[Fishythefish]

Titus: thoughts on outing the six of clubs?

[Fishythefish]

I mean this logic (since clubs were active for rb's death)

[Fishythefish]

Eh, I can't be bothered countering Max's case. To sum up: it's pretty clear that Max has been scumreading Titus to some degree since very early, and it's been confirming itself.. He reads way too much into a non-event of a Creature wagon, and calls Titus scummy for being wrong without explaining why. If you're town, Titus is a dreadful vengeance shot. Don't do it.

[Fishythefish]

Jackal claimed vengeful a while ago - it's not like it was just when he was being lynched. And scum might well not have realised the problem with claiming - it's pretty hard to shift mindset to one where your role keeps changing. I'm pretty unconvinced by his sudden SR on Titus, looks like halfhearted scum near the noose to me.

Whether to lynch him today or not is tricky. Depends exactly how likely he is to be scum. Even quite likely scumbags are worth giving a vengeful shot - if they're better than 50% town, their shot is better than the average kill. I tend to think that, despite all our grand talk, lynches are little better than random. So I'd say we *should* be happy to lynch a scummy vengeful player. I want to sleep on that, though.

[Fishythefish]

Jackal claimed vengeful a while ago - it's not like it was just when he was being lynched. And scum might well not have realised the problem with claiming - it's pretty hard to shift mindset to one where your role keeps changing. I'm pretty unconvinced by his sudden SR on Titus, looks like halfhearted scum near the noose to me.

Whether to lynch him today or not is tricky. Depends exactly how likely he is to be scum. Even quite likely scumbags are worth giving a vengeful shot - if they're better than 50% town, their shot is better than the average kill. I tend to think that, despite all our grand talk, lynches are little better than random. So I'd say we *should* be happy to lynch a scummy vengeful player. I want to sleep on that, though.

I cannot find anything about him claiming vengeful earlier in his iso - am I not looking hard enough?

First off, I'm town.

Secondly, why was I town-reading Kraska? I know there had to have been a reason, but I'm not seeing it any more.

Thirdly
VOTE: Davesaz

I'm willing to believe Transcend was copped by rb. #2658 pinged me as scum being worried about their lynch? I can't very well join the town-bloc, sorry guys.

Maxous is feeling more towny to me. He's still a dick. And Transcend.

Also, lynching the top people is for what? The Jack of Clubs? I have it. Do it.

[Fishythefish]

Guys get back on jackal and let's direct that shot.
I say we make him shoot Maria. Thoughts?

I cannot endorse this plan. If we wind up lynching Jackal today, we should do your plan. It only has upside if we're wrong though. If Jackal is scum, he will not venge the target. If he's town, he will.

If I get overruled, he should shoot Kison or Dunn.

I don't see why we should direct the shot by vote. The shot, if Jackel is town, is as pure as the driven snow. Why sully it with a vote involving scum as well as town?

[Fishythefish]

Maria, you're having a meltdown that I'm finding hard to believe is coming from town right now.

Uzi here feels like scum riding the Maria train. Seems to me like he's seen a big wagon, tried to work out what it's about, and tagged along (probably following townie opinions); just doesn't feel like a genuine SR on Maria.

[Fishythefish]

Clicked Submit by mistake there. While the above is true, I'm still reading around it...

[Fishythefish]

Uzi (and others), why do you think MariaScum would be playing this way? It's been quite clear for a while it's not being read as town. I don't see why her "meltdown" as you call it looks unlikely, and I don't see a scum motivation to fake it.

[Fishythefish]

Actually, the "(and others)" in my question there isn't really right. Uzi is the first person who's really gone after Maria for her AtE, AFAIC.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not sure that MariaScum wouldn't also get annoyed and have a meltdown. But I suspect it's less likely, and I really doubt she'd fake one.

[Fishythefish]

To explain again why I want Jackel lynched today:

1) I think Jackel is the most likely scum.
2) And yet, I think Jackel is less than 50% likely to be scum. Anyone who thinks we are more than twice as good as random needs to take a long hard look at their rate of lynching scum over their last several games, and then stop kidding themselves.
3) The "normal" kills in the game (lynch and NK) are made 50% by the town, and 50% by the scum. So if a player is less than 50% likely to be scum, giving them a vengekill is a good idea.

To put it another way; let's say we're lynching Jackel today or tomorrow, because he's scummy. Choosing today is like handing him a vig shot. Do I want to hand a random player a vig shot? Hell yeah - that's probably a protown kill, and protown kills are great. Do I want to hand my top scumread a vig shot? Less so, but still yes. Putting my ego aside, I know that most people's top scumreads are town most of the time - so it's still probably a better kill than the game's average kill.

[Fishythefish]

To explain again why I want Jackel lynched today:

1) I think Jackel is the most likely scum.
2) And yet, I think Jackel is less than 50% likely to be scum. Anyone who thinks we are more than twice as good as random needs to take a long hard look at their rate of lynching scum over their last several games, and then stop kidding themselves.
3) The "normal" kills in the game (lynch and NK) are made 50% by the town, and 50% by the scum. So if a player is less than 50% likely to be scum, giving them a vengekill is a good idea.

To put it another way; let's say we're lynching Jackel today or tomorrow, because he's scummy. Choosing today is like handing him a vig shot. Do I want to hand a random player a vig shot? Hell yeah - that's probably a protown kill, and protown kills are great. Do I want to hand my top scumread a vig shot? Less so, but still yes. Putting my ego aside, I know that most people's top scumreads are town most of the time - so it's still probably a better kill than the game's average kill.

Not handing a kill to my scumread when he'd kill town. Sorry.

I agree that the logic doesn't apply if you know he's going to kill town.

Why do you think Kison is scum?

[Fishythefish]

Maybe we should just kill McMenno. There's really no reason not to. Doesn't strike me as a player we'll ever be able to read.

[Fishythefish]

IDK. Kison feels quite scumhunty; the Drone wagon analysis particularly looks like a genuine attempt to analyse the most interesting thing that's happened.

[Fishythefish]

Why does he? All I see is oooh popular wagon

*throws a post mentioning them*

Wait

*vote*

I'll answer this post about Kison's scumhunting (or lack thereof) later. No time now.

Fishythefish: Not clear on whether you're in support of directing the vengekill since you argued against it in

post 3199

but seem to be suggesting we direct it at McMenno in

3267

. Or are you suggesting that McMenno should be today's lynch?

I was thinking (or rather, idling musing) about a lynch. Way to close to deadline to be randomly fracturing wagons, though.

On the vengekill - while I don't think we should "direct" the vengekill in any formal or votey way, I'm all up for him hearing my advice! And I think a McMenno kill would be an excellent kill.

[Fishythefish]

The king of diamonds is obvtown. Town do not shoot the king of diamonds. That is all.

[Fishythefish]

To expand just a little:

- Scum don't want Lights Out Lynching to be in the game. It's very protown.
- Scum don't want to be lovers. Scum really fear death, particularly when outnumbered like they are here.
- Sure, the King of Diamonds gives you towncredit. That won't save you when your lover dies in a tragic pineapple accident. And in general, the towncred scum get for taking actions that weaken you significantly is never enough to compensate for that weakness.

[Fishythefish]

Don't shoot either of them. Shoot someone who is quite scummy, and impossible for us to read.

[Fishythefish]

@Maria: McMenno ticks all the boxes for me. TBH, I've no idea whether my lack of read on Dunn is his fault or mine.

@Jackel: If you really, really are deciding between those two: kraska. But I think both are pretty crappy picks. Worse than random by a good way.

[Fishythefish]

Well. We've lynched Jackel, right? His vengekill kinda seems the obvious thing to be discussing.

[Fishythefish]

You either understood or didn't. My case was Kison was bussing LUV. You liked it. The thread had moved on due to rb's flip.

Send me fruit. I dare you.

(The fruit deadline has passed. I'm nerdy enough to ask the mod when the deadline for day actions is, and it's the hammer post)

Jackel: if you shoot Titus, who just claimed the king of diamonds... words fail me. It would be madness.

[Fishythefish]

If you hold the 2 of Diamonds, you protect giga today. Failure to do so is claiming scum. There are no valid excuses not to protect giga.

Giga is fairly obvtown (scum doesn't suicide, and they were townish already). When hearts come up, that gets mod-confirmed (or denied). So you protect them, or we autolynch you come massclaim.

[Fishythefish]

Where's this stuff about Maria being governor coming from? IIRC, Vedith is the other claim Jack of Clubs?

[Fishythefish]

well i had a good run guys

i took a two of hearts, i wanted my time in this game to be short bc i wasn't expecting to enjoy it but i ended up having a lot of fun

only important information i can think of that I have to say before i die is that we have 14 diamonds in the deck. i'll type up a readlist tomorrow (though i should double check if i suicide after morning or after the lynch)

When was this timed?

We can then deduce how many diamonds are outstanding.

The number hasn't changed all game

[Fishythefish]

Why do we even think the shot was Maria?

[Fishythefish]

Scum white mage is another possible explanation for the no kill, unless I've missed a claim.

[Fishythefish]

Scum white mage on Maria would be my bet, yeah. But I need to read Jackel again, try to work out what scum would think he'd do.

[Fishythefish]

I will repeat in big bold letters since y'all seem to have trouble seeing it.

You can't use the lack of a vengekill to scumhunt. Do it the normal way.

If you think someone is scum by their actions that's fine, but the lack of a death proves nothing.

Spoiler: btw

I haven't lost that scumread on MariaR, but I want to avoid having town rush into a potentially bad decision without thinking about it first! We may come to the same conclusion for the right reasons and that I'm totally fine with.

I strongly disagree. I think a missed vengekill makes the obvious targets for that kill much more likely scum - since scum probably guessed the shot right. Those are Titus and kraska (Jackel had said he was choosing between them), with side orders of McMenno and Maria (some chat, mentioned by Jackel as possible targets).

[Fishythefish]

Currently revisiting my Maria read. What has changed since yesterday to get to this wagon size so fast?

[Fishythefish]

No quicklynch today. The doctor needs time to protect giga. Did I mention that if the doc doesn't protect giga, we're massclaiming tomorrow and lynching their sorry ass? 'Cos we are.

[Fishythefish]

Maria being scum and protected is by far the most likely explanation for the no-kill.

- A shot on Vedith, giga or no shot - the non-mage options for the no-kill - are unlikely from Jackel's ISO.
- So, the shot was very likely predicted and blocked by the white mage.
- Looking at Jackel again, he'd disavowed a Titus lynch, and cooled off on a kraska one. Reading his posting, I'd say he was very likely to shoot Maria or McMenno.
- Neither of those targets is a protect for a townMage. So, it was a scum protection.
- Of those, McMenno only gained any attention near the end of the day. Protecting him is possible, but would have had to be pretty sharp. Way more likely is a Maria protection.

Adding a scummy claim to that (Godfather, Ninja), I've no need to reread Maria. This is a good lynch.

[Fishythefish]

I think you were protected because Jackel was likely to shoot you, and scum were likely to protect you. Jackel shooting anyone else who was protected is way less likely.

Taking Godfather and Ninja is scummy.

@Titus: what is more likely than scum healing scum? It seems the only way to me that the no kill wasn't a huge coincidence.

[Fishythefish]

I think you were protected because Jackel was likely to shoot you, and scum were likely to protect you. Jackel shooting anyone else who was protected is way less likely.

Taking Godfather and Ninja is scummy.

@Titus: what is more likely than scum healing scum? It seems the only way to me that the no kill wasn't a huge coincidence.

Town healing town.
Jackal roleblocked.
We can eliminate bulletproof.
Creature took scummy cards as well.

Yeesh. You'd really protect Maria? Well, very few others would consider it. Even if Maria is town, it's very likely she's getting lynched before endgame. Eliminating her for free would surely be to the good. She certainly won't be shot by scum.

No roleblockers active yesterday.

Yeah, creature took scummy cards. Cards like Godfather are still more likely as scumpicks.

Transcend didn't have white mage at healing time.

[Fishythefish]

Sure. But it's a good guess, because his shot was very likely guessed by scum. Unless McMenno or Maria was the shot, it was a 1-in-20 protect (from town or scum). Scum choosing to protect their own likely target seems much more likely than that.

[Fishythefish]

(That was a reply to 3724)

[Fishythefish]

There are *not* lots of options; and all the ones that aren't a protect on a likely Jackel shot need a massive coincidence (random protection) or very unlikely action (giga shot or no shot).

Whatever else my opinion is, it's not confirmation biased. This is the only reason I think Maria is scum; except to a lesser extent her subsequent claim.

[Fishythefish]

(And NOW I'm suffering from confirmation bias. Weird how the minute you scumread someone, posts like the above look so fake. I'm gonna try to suppress it.)

[Fishythefish]

You wanna talk I'm right here my wagon took off so fucking fast it's like "Okay we used Maria enough let's get our free ML" Look at my wagon because I bet there's at least 2 scum on it I'm town here I don't regret my play and I think it 's fine I don't see what you do with me but I guess I can try to improve on it in a dif game? lol
"

EVERYONE JUST KEEPS SAYING FAKE HOW AM I BEING FAKE UGH

I find your playstyle very hard to read, and I don't have a read on it here. It's not one I particularly understand. I've not said your play is fake, except in my last post where I freely admit that's probably just confbias talking (as frankly, it's unlikely that I start finding you fake just when I think you're scum for other reasons).

[Fishythefish]

Fish, what is your read on Kison?

My read for most of the game has been probtown, based on Kison actually doing some scumhunting. But actually that read might be a bit crap; because of the nature of this game (low content per post), I'm probably setting a rather low bar. If I was scum, I'd have little problem looking like I was doing at least as much as Kison is. I've rather lazily failed to follow up on something someone (you?) said, which is that Kison is providing justification for voting the leading wagon, then hopping on. I need to do that; Kison might be pretty hard to ready either way without stepping back and looking at voting patterns.

[Fishythefish]

Fish, what is your read on Kison?

My read for most of the game has been probtown, based on Kison actually doing some scumhunting. But actually that read might be a bit crap; because of the nature of this game (low content per post), I'm probably setting a rather low bar. If I was scum, I'd have little problem looking like I was doing at least as much as Kison is. I've rather lazily failed to follow up on something someone (you?) said, which is that Kison is providing justification for voting the leading wagon, then hopping on. I need to do that; Kison might be pretty hard to ready either way without stepping back and looking at voting patterns.

Yeah, I'm not seeing any reason to think Kison is scum. In his ISO, I see a low activity but high effort attempt at scumhunting. Would I be surprised if Kison could fake that? No. But I'm leaning town.

[Fishythefish]

i really give no fucks if milkshake or transcend are actually town
considering how vigs are highly conditional this game, im sure theyre making it to endgame bc scum would never be dumb enough to kill them

I don't we need to worry about confirmed town getting to endgame. milkshake's slot - well, what are the odds it doesn't get replaced? No need to worry too much about these just yet.

VOTE: Maria - L-2.

I've explained why - the no-kill points heavily at Maria as scum.

[Fishythefish]

I vigged Titus last night because of the way she defended Maria, who wound up flipping scum.

I fully expected she'd also flip scum, because Titus supports her scum buddies.

Titus claimed the King of diamonds, which is an obvtown card - double lynch and lover are both things scum really don't want. Did you miss that, or disagree with it, or what?

[Fishythefish]

I'm the beta deck rigger. Card reviver should pick a pro town card and send it my way - 2 of clubs is pretty hot stuff, for example. Doctor could consider protecting me, though there are other good targets.

[Fishythefish]

Also, hold off on that revive until it's clear whether the scum are killing me.

[Fishythefish]

@Grey: Ok, thanks. Pity you didn't spot the "don't shoot Titus" conversation, but fair enough.

[Fishythefish]

Their kill was disabled by the two of clubs.

[Fishythefish]

*spades. Activated by the two of clubs.

[Fishythefish]

dreamer failed to take the King of diamonds. That's likely town.

My activity is currently pretty limited.

I'm wondering if there's so much info out there we should just massclaim. Scum already know enough to shoot straight - and massclaim will help for reasons that aren't great to discuss in public.

[Fishythefish]

Yeah, we claim. There are around 5 very likely townies around for card based reasons, scum can already shoot, stealth and royalty vig dead well.

[Fishythefish]

Yeah, we claim. There are around 5 very likely townies around for card based reasons, scum can already shoot, stealth and royalty vig dead well.

I don't think that's a good idea

Why? I think massclaim will make us lynch significantly better, and not make the scum shoot significantly better.

[Fishythefish]

Adding to giga's list:

Claims

• Vedith (now Mathblade) claimed to have the Jack of Clubs, 8 of Spades, and 2 of Spades at L-1.
  
  
• Transcend claimed to rig the deck with the Ace of Clubs, meaning he has the Ace of Clubs and Jack of Spades. He also claimed to be a member of the Clubs Neighborhood (which I can verify), so he has the 8, 9, or 10 of clubs.
  
  
• Transcend is presumably the innocent result of rb's sole investigation. Look through rb's ISO and voice any disagreement you have though.
  
  
• gigabyteTrouabdour claimed to have the 2 of hearts (Innocent Child) and 3 of clubs. McMenno claimed to be neighbors with them in the Clubs Neighborhood, which they verified. This means their remaining card is an 8, 9, or 10 of clubs.
  
  
• Vecna claimed fruit vendor and vended fruit to Gerry, which has been verified by Gerry.
  
  
• McMenno claimed to be a member of the Clubs Neighborhood, and so has an 8, 9, or 10 of clubs.
  
  
• The deck started out with 13 diamond cards, so 13 diamond cards are in the hands of players and 13 are in the deck (now 12). (This is the result of giga's N2 inventory)
  
  
• I've claimed Beta Deck Rigger, and successfully rigged the Jack of Spades for N1 and the Two of Clubs for D3, leaving the 4 of Clubs as my only remaining card. Editorialising, the Two of Clubs is obviously protown, and these cards would have been much less good for the town in the other order (Two at night, Jack at day), so I'm town.
  
  
• We massclaimed whether we missed out on any draft cards, because two people above us took them. Titus, MOI/Arcangel/Drone missed the Jack of Clubs. dreamer missed the King of Diamonds. Vifam/TWIE missed the 8 of Spades. McMenno missed the 7 of hearts.
  
  
• Jackel was a town vengeful when we lynched him, but no-one died. Explanations are a no-shot, a shot at a BP (Vedith/giga), a shot at a randomly-protected target or a shot at a scum-protected target which they thought would likely be vigged/venged. Some (including me) think the last is very likely, and that the target was most likely Maria.
  
  
• Grey has the King of Diamonds, 8 of Hearts and 10 of Hearts
  
  
• On day 2, scum shot one of the top 5 people in the draft. They knew 2 of rb/Jackel/Vedith/kraska were BP. If Vedith is town, that means they took a 50% chance of a failed shot, or used a strongman. If Vedith is scum, the chance was 33%. So the strongman is probscum, more so if Vedith is town.

This gives the following reads, going on cards alone:
- Transcend, town. Cleared by a cop.
- giga, town. Took a town card (suicide, innocent child).
- Grey, town. Took a town card (loverise, LoL).
- dreamer, town. Attempted to take a town card (loverise, LoL).
- [IMO, to others - Fishy, town]
- Vedith, mild scum. His cards make him unlynchable on days with Spades or Jacks as trumps. His 8/2 of spades are a pretty dangerous combo that hurts town more than scum.
- 2 of diamonds which saved giga - mild town. Scum likely would have kept this under wraps.

[Fishythefish]

Your claim was fine; means you'll revive in a pro town way, which is townish.

Yeah, I think the two of diamonds isn't an implausible scum-garnering-towncred card. Failure to save giga would have been claiming scum. Scum don't have safeclaims, so that would have been a tricky decision.

Yep, I could have killed an ic. I didn't think there'd be one - it's a bad card - and even if there was a doc could potentially help. Do you think scum would give up a certain directed kill for a possible undirected suicide? Also, scum would have shot day 1 and rigged the 2 for night 1 - so the suicide couldn't have been claimed and prevented, and the kill wouldn't have been disabled.

[Fishythefish]

@Dunn - fair point, hadn't considered the drafting. Two of diamonds would be a crappy pick for scum.

@Spyrex - beloved is very antitown. Makes you impossible to lynch some days. Hated makes you more likely to be lynched on the days you are beloved, so further antitown. Also introduces some very bad endgame potential - we can't afford Vedith in lylo if spades come up. I can imagine picking the two - factional kill disabled is sweet - but then being hated on spades days seems a scum move.

@gerry - I think a small number of cards (two, in fact) are sufficiently unlikely for scum to pick that they are stronger info than anything I've seen in-thread. Chiefly, these are cards that make you significantly more likely to die, without large benefits for scum. I'm not saying those people are all definitely town, but they are in the "absolutely not lynching for a few days" pot.

[Fishythefish]

Rigging the 2 of clubs assuming you are telling the truth is not alignment indicative as the setup says they can shoot once in a day or night phase. So rigging one unless you have overwhelming evidence scum will shoot that cycle is useless. It will be if and when there is no kill from scum. (I am townreading Grey and really need time to go back and look more at Titus.)

No. Rigging the 2 of clubs disabled the kill for a day *and* the following night, and prevented a kill for D3/N3.

Those cards together do not hurt Town or scum. They are passives.

Which cards are you talking about here?

Also your logic on day two about me and that group is wrong. If you assume incorrectly my slot is scum then they would have a two out of three or 66% chance of hitting someone BP as I am only BP if the card shows BP based on the trump card. I don't know where you got that grouping.

I probably didn't make this terribly clear.
- Titus failed to pick the Jack of Clubs.
- Therefore two people above Titus in the draft - rb/Jackel/kraska/Maria/Vedith/Creature - picked it.
- Creature was already dead. Maria was scum.
- So for scum shooting D2, 2 of rb/Jackel/kraska/Vedith had the Jack of Clubs. Jackel had it, and was town. Your slot also had it.
- So if you are town, scum were shooting at a 50% BP (2 BPs in 4 slots). If you are scum, it was 33% (1BP in 3 slots, as you had the other). Both unlikely chances to take without a strongman.

....There is no such thing as "revive in a protown way" or "townish". Either a person is or is not Town who does scummy or townie things.

Huh? If you pass a protown card to a known or very likely townie, that's reviving in a protown way. If you pass a scummy card to, say, McMenno, it isn't.

Scum don't have fake claims yes but why the fuck do you contradict yourself. You say it is a townie thing but say if he didn't do it it is scum claiming so that action is really NAI.

We don't know who the two of diamonds is. Scum holding it might keep quiet, not save giga (a practically confirmed townie), and hope they could guess a fake claim later.

We pick powers. A power is not alignment indicative. Scum can pick suicide if they know they are exposed so scum don't have to give credence to bussing. All of what is being suggested is just fucking horrible and scum hunting needs to happen. We need to focus on scumhunting. Experienced scum can and will bend mechanics to their will. I have done it before and do not want to see that happen this game.

I heartily disagree. Some cards benefit town a lot more than scum (the 2 of hearts being a good example. Suicide is another mechanic you've misunderstood, and is involuntary - can I suggest you read the rules?). These cards are more likely to be picked by town than scum. Some actions benefit town more than scum. These actions are more likely to be made by town than scum. In some cases, this information is very significant, and should affect our lynching decisions. Yes, scum can get towncred by helping the town. Better that than allowing them to act as scummily as they like and not get lynched because you can't use mechanics.

Of course we should be scumhunting as well - there's no information in the game right now that gives me a solid scumread I want to lynch on (though it helps a lot with PoE). The first thing I need to do is read the Maria wagons good and hard - that will take a few solid hours I'm unlikely to have for a few days (whereas the information-y thinking I've been doing today can be done in small bursts and is dead easy).

So you want to mislynch me now instead of at LyLO? ...Interesting how you didn't have this theory until I replaced in and said my suspicions.

I have zero interest in lynching a beloved player. Do you disagree about LYLO? If you are town and we get to 3v2 (say) and trumps are spades, the 2 scum can vote for you and win the game as you are Hated.

As to why I've just brought this up - you may be able to tell from my recent posts that I've been revisiting the various claims and info in this game recently. It's worth noting that I don't actually think your slot is all that scummy overall - I listed your claim as "mildly scum", and aspects of Vedith's play (notably, ignorance shown while claiming) made me think him town. Though TBH I haven't thought about your slot much for a while.

It also completely ignores what is on the rest of the card. Mafia kill disabler and JK. So you can't say someone is Town for having that then call me scum for it as well. This is blatant hypocrisy.

Sorry, I don't understand this at all... I haven't called anyone town for holding any card you have.

Beloved roles are most often pro-Town. They are either seen in setups designed especially for them (so it is acceptable for their death to be a "punishment" for the Town) or in role madness games where skipping a Day phase is not a complete disaster.

From the wiki fyi.

This just clearly doesn't apply at all in a Pick Your Power game! It's about what roles

mods

make Beloved. It's very much not a protown power.

This post is a lot of bullshit and it looks like this game scum are content to post words to look townie.

Does the above change your opinion? We may disagree about the value of card-based information, but I hope the above shows that I'm not talking bullshit about that information.

[Fishythefish]

can I suggest you read the rules?

This excerpt from the above post sounds a bit arsey. It's meant in an entirely friendly way - there are some roles (loverise, suicide, kill disabler) where the first guess from the name isn't the actual power, and even the more setup-focused of us have made a few mistakes along the way. So if you are thinking about the setup, it's best not to assume anything.

[Fishythefish]

@Dunn: Good spot on the neighbourhood making disguise impossible, thanks.

[Fishythefish]

Better get on with it then. There's a mild chance I have only a few hours to live.

[Fishythefish]

@Mathblade: the two of spades is a mixed bag. It has a very pro town element of disabling kills, and a very anti town element of Beloved. I've said:
- Your slot is mildly scummy for taking this in combination with Hated in the same suit
- I'm pretty obvtown for rigging a card to trigger only the protown bit (using my beta deck rigger ability on night 2)
I've said nothing at all about the alignment of whoever has the other two of spades, if it was even taken.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, well you're obvtown then.

[Fishythefish]

More seriously: OK. You crumbed this at game start, IIRC, by saying you can't reach lylo or similar?

[Fishythefish]

My 4040 was a joke (because it is exactly what MB was accusing me of). I don't think spyrex is obvtown.

[Fishythefish]

@McM: who is that to, and what are you congratulating them on?

[Fishythefish]

No, really.

[Fishythefish]

no. a card is not "obvtown" in the hands of one player, but "midly scummy" in the hands of another.

Yeah. More over the same ability in the hands of one player isn't obvTown or scum.
Rigging the two of clubs is what allows the two of spades in my deck to go off and prevent the kill in the fucking first place.

Rigging the two of diamonds as it seems someone has done by removing it from the discard pile (I am assuming here that is what is going on) means my two will go off again.

Fish looks like he wants an excuse to read me as scum and is using mechanics.

You do know that I rigged the damn two of clubs, right? And that the post you QFT here was responding to a joke? And that I've not said the same card is townish and scummy for different people, except in that joke? Seriously, if you are town you need to step back and rethink a bit.

[Fishythefish]

Transcend had been cleared by a cop.

[Fishythefish]

@Mathblade: I'm not planning to respond to your latest posts on me any further. I don't think your attacks today are remotely scummy, and I think we both have better ways to spend our time than continuing to argue over them. If you or anyone else disagrees (now or after further reading), shout and I'll answer any questions/accusations you still have.

[Fishythefish]

Would consider lynching: AA9, gerryoat, davesaz, Kison, LUV, TWIE, McMenno. Pleasantly small pool, actually.

@giga: you have dave, Kison and TWIE of those as probtown. Why?

[Fishythefish]

@Dunn: I'm guessing the answer's yes, but did you revive the two?

[Fishythefish]

Would consider lynching: AA9, gerryoat, davesaz, Kison, LUV, TWIE, McMenno. Pleasantly small pool, actually.

@giga: you have dave, Kison and TWIE of those as probtown. Why?

Answering one of these for myself: dave on Maria doesn't look very likely bussing. He definitely increased the chances of Maria's lynch substantially.

[Fishythefish]

Ditto Kison. On day 2, just after Jackel claimed Vengeful and things were up in the air, Kison pushed pretty hard on Maria. This could well have lead to a lynch.

TWIE I don't see any reason to think is town.

[Fishythefish]

I'm actually much more interested in Maria's day 2 than day 3. Day 3 went really fast - her lynch felt quite inevitable from near the start. Day 2 she could easily have been lynched, but wasn't - so that's where the scum were making interesting decisions.

[Fishythefish]

Can't be revived, though. It would be active.

[Fishythefish]

10 of diamonds

as trump

enables Cop, PGO, RB, Alpha Vig, and all diamonds powers (if it's a DAY trump including

double lynch

if someone owns a K).
Why would you think that's a scummy move?

This is right. And it was indeed revived to me, so this is the likely intent.

[Fishythefish]

Maria, you're having a meltdown that I'm finding hard to believe is coming from town right now.

Maria, you're having a meltdown that I'm finding hard to believe is coming from town right now.

no shit I'm having a meltdown I'm pissed.

What makes it hard to believe is coming from town please enlighten me how I SHOULD act in this situation I bet you have an answer don't ya

Well I mean I don't see town feeling the need to constantly defend and justify their play the way you've been doing especially in such an over the top way as opposed to just playing and continuing to scum hunt despite all the heat. Actions speak louder than words and that's why you're being scum read right now.

Maria, you're having a meltdown that I'm finding hard to believe is coming from town right now.

Uzi here feels like scum riding the Maria train. Seems to me like he's seen a big wagon, tried to work out what it's about, and tagged along (probably following townie opinions); just doesn't feel like a genuine SR on Maria.

^This still feels true of Uzi's vote on Maria. Smells very much of a bus to me.
VOTE: Uzi

[Fishythefish]

I've been scum reading Maria since Day 1. I don't recall anyone really sharing the same sentiment at the time. Check 1137.

Yes. You've been scum reading Maria since day 1, but never at any point did much to make her lynch more likely - you never voted her until she was already a serious wagon on D3.

[Fishythefish]

I've been scum reading Maria since Day 1. I don't recall anyone really sharing the same sentiment at the time. Check 1137.

Yes. You've been scum reading Maria since day 1, but never at any point did much to make her lynch more likely - you never voted her until she was already a serious wagon on D3.

Yeah I didn't for two reasons. She wasn't my strongest scum read at the time and I was more interested in what Titus may have been hinting at with the information she was gathering. You're also forgetting the stranglehold the town leaders such as herself and rb had on the game. It was either their way or the highway and Maria was definitely not happening Day 1 and Day 2. I also was defending myself from why I casted a vote for Vifam earlier.

What I was trying to argue by showing how long I was scum reading her was that my reasons for voting for her Day 3 didn't come from nowhere or were sheeping like you seem to be implying.

This makes sense for d1 - though then I'd expect to see you try to persuade those leaders. But Maria definitely wasn't happening day 2? Codswallop. There we leaders were dead, and the Maria wagon was definitely a real possibility. You're vote for jackal - who you never mentioned d1 - over Maria was absolutely not forced by the game state.

[Fishythefish]

You're forgetting that one of those leaders was still alive in Titus and she was scum reading me from the start because she believed I tried to rolefish. I tried to explain to her that I wasn't various times but she still insisted that I was by constantly announcing she was willing to lynch me. I don't think she was trying to hear anything I was saying. I was also convinced to vote Jackal because while I was opposed to it at first due to his vengeful being active, it seemed like or at least everyone at the time had convinced him to shoot Maria so I felt it was worth the trade-off.

Hmmm. Titus was not someone who dominated the discourse (like, say, rb). She kept up mild to moderate pressure on you, but never actually voted. Your wagon never got off the ground. There was already a Maria wagon - after the Transcend wagon dispersed, it was the #2 wagon for whole of day 2. If you had a scumread on Maria as you professed, I'd really expect you to have been interested in that wagon. It's not just that you didn't vote for it - you also never asked questions about Maria, or really did anything.

I find your day 2 play pretty unlikely from a townie with a day 1 SR on Maria, and completely likely from scum.

What do other people think of Uzi's play around Maria?

[Fishythefish]

I'm going to tell you guys a secret: There was no protective role of any kind active last night. if -grey-/kraska were scum they'd have shot giga and wouldn't have claimed it, so they're either town or going for the super wifom when nobody really scumread them anyway

Eh. It's plausible that Titus was the most townish player scum thought they could shoot and get away with by playing the "ignorant replacement" card. Though I think it's more likely the slot is town.

So whats the parse between d2 maria and d3 maria murder parties. Who had a mysterious hardon d3 versus d2 apathy

Actually... almost noone. Colouring green for hardened maria-haters, blue for town so who cares, red for too late to matter much:

Lynch mob: MariaR (10) -

Dunnstral, kraska77, Kison

, Lil Uzi Vert,

gigabyteTroubadour

,

Vecna

, drealmerz7, Fishythefish,

SpyreX

,

Transcend

Of those uncolored:
- Lil I've talked about.
- drealmer is interesting. Through quite a bit of day 2, his position can be summed up by "Jackal is scummy, Maria is scummier. Jackal has more votes, so let's just do that". I don't really see this as scum. He hadn't committed to a hard Maria scumread before taking this position. Why put yourself in this weird place as scum?
- I'm not analysing myself. Noone else should either, because I have a sneaking suspicion my play on Maria doesn't exactly scream town.

[Fishythefish]

@LUV: why does following rb's reads matter here? Pretty sure that put Maria on the list.

The colours are just answering spyrexs question (because it was a good one) - who was suddenly gunning for Maria day 3? The various colours are all categories who I don't think are that interesting to look at in this context. Doesn't mean their town (except for the blue/purple one, which is the flipped-town-or-practically-confirmed category)

@gerry: why?

[Fishythefish]

I think mcmenno's scumclaims are a mild scumtell, but I'm mostly ignoring them as too weird to reason about. I haven't yet read him with Maria in mind, will do soon.

[Fishythefish]

Mathblade: what is lynch shopping?

[Fishythefish]

Mcmenno: I wasn't playing dumb, but have done further reading and I think I know what you're on about

Any reason you aren't just saying what you know?

King of diamonds is lights out lynching and loverise. Nicknamed "the town card".

[Fishythefish]

gerry, Mcmenno: if you don't immediately give me a reason not to, I'm blowing this thing wide open.

[Fishythefish]

I'm now in the diamonds hood - I got the 2 this morning. Last night, Dunn posted in there proposing a kill on Titus; to paraphrase, he said "I think we should kill Titus". This makes very little sense to be a post to the neighbourhood. It was almost certainly a scumslip. It may also make Grey scum, as Grey shot Titus; I need to think further on this.

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Fishythefish]

Because their argument is that I "slipped" 2 days before deadline and I'm partners with grey but he would have made the titus kill anyway and then outted it

Even better is thinking it was a slip when what I really meant was that I wanted to see her gone in a lynchy noosey kind of way

To be clear - this is 2 days before the *night* deadline.

The thing is, your post does not read like you wanted her gone in a lynchy noosey kind of way:
- It was not connected to anything that had gone before. It followed an incomplete discussion on card spying.
- It was very baldly stated - suddenly bringing up a lynch for the hood to consider, I'd expect you to say more.
I think that post fits way, way better in a mafia NK discussion than a hood.

As for making me a neighbour - yeah, that's protown. It doesn't actually make your position around the slip any better or worse.

I need to sleep now, will post more on this tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

I'm really surprised by the lack of interest in this. I'm going to lay out exactly what happened in the neighbourhood, and why I think it's likely that it makes Dunn scum. I think various people are dismissing this for no reason at all.

All three

of the people who have seen this post think it a likely scumslip. Writing that off without seeing it, and without asking a question about it, is not wise.

An account of the Diamonds hood

I've tried to keep this completely unopinionated. Dunn, shout if you think any of this is unfair or anything interesting is left out.

- A few posts of pleasantries.
- Dunn and McMenno briefly discuss gerry's alignment, and massclaim. gerry defends, pointing out that Maria was deflecting onto him
- Discussion of claims within the hood
- Dunn makes a comment on how it's sad there's no doc/watcher to protect giga.
- Some chat around gerry being sent fruit. Speculation about scum having a fruit vendor, which fizzles out when they remember Vecna claimed it.
- Dunn asks whether card spy seems town. gerry replies he doesn't see town wanting it.

- Dunn posts "Let's kill titus". This is the entirety of the post.

- gerry and McMenno call it a scumslip.
- Dunn says it wasn't a slip, he was talking to the hood.
- Dunn expresses frustration at delayed N3 deadline, and emphasises the he wants to kill Titus.
- Dunn proposes posting as if the hood was the scumteam (I think? Dunn - is that the right interpretation)?
- gerry and McMenno are clearly unconvinced.

My opinions on it

From town?

So, Dunn's claim is that he meant "let's lynch Titus". I find that claim unlikely:
- There had been zero comment in the neighbourhood on anyone's alignment outside the hood. It doesn't feel like a neighbourhood you're going to galvanise and build a wagon around.
- It's completely unexplained. There's no reasoning why Titus is scum - and remember, we just had a scumflip and a very significant claim from Titus.
- It proposes no action, makes no attempt at persuasion, nothing. All in all, I see this as a very unlikely post at that point in the neighbourhood conversation.
- The reaction to it in the hood reads to me like Dunn knows it's a dodgy post, and is trying to cover for it. If he's just unlucky town, you might see the same - but then I wouldn't expect the completely blase attitude he's shown to it in thread.
One point on the other side - Dunn wanting to lynch Titus is plausible; relevant posts are post 3725 and post 3595. The latter being particularly notable as containing the phrase "kill titus".

@Dunn: do you see why the neighbourhood post looks really dodgy? Can you explain any more about what you were thinking when you made it?

From scum?

It seems unlikely to be about the Grey shot. It would be bold scum indeed to go through with that after slipping it to the hood. More likely it was just about the kill the next day. Is that likely? Not sure. Scum could reasonably shoot at Titus for holding the King of Diamonds. Much more likely if the scum held the other one, I'd say.

Dunn's reaction

Is really poor. It looks like he thought he could steamroller McMenno and gerry, as he has a lot more weight/presence/whatever in the game. He called for their lynches repeatedly, and never talked to them. If Dunn is town here, I really think the natural conclusion from his POV is that he made a very unfortunate post, or

possibly

that McMenno and gerry (and now me) are being idiots jumping on something that obviously wasn't a scumslip. Either way, I'd really not expect him to attack McM and gerry as scum.

OTOH, he put me in the neighbourhood, which made his situation potentially a lot worse. Did he forget I'd be in the hood immediately? Dunno.

McMenno and gerry

And if I'm town, what do you think of the people pushing on me?

Whether or not your are town - I think the manner of their push was idiotic. I feel a bit like I'm trying to convince the town that the slip is significant, while they loiter behind me saying "ner ner, Dunn is scum". I see no earthly motivation from any alignment to come out and vote you cryptically, not claim anything, not explain anything, etc. If you are town - this episode wouldn't give me a scumread on anyone pushing it.

[Fishythefish]

One point on the other side - Dunn wanting to lynch Titus is plausible; relevant posts are post 3725 and post 3595. The latter being particularly notable as containing the phrase "kill titus".

This in particular gives me pause. It's definitely a bizarre choice of words if he is town and I would be voting right now had you not pointed out post 3595. Seeing him use the same wording in the game thread, it's plausible that he meant "kill" to signify lynch in the neighborhood thread.

Dunn was also on Maria quite a bit during day two during the buildup of Jackel's wagon.

It seems unlikely to be about the Grey shot. It would be bold scum indeed to go through with that after slipping it to the hood. More likely it was just about the kill the next day. Is that likely? Not sure. Scum could reasonably shoot at Titus for holding the King of Diamonds. Much more likely if the scum held the other one, I'd say.

If Titus hadn't been killed & was still in the game, would you be reading this any differently?

Yeah, spotting 3595 has weakened my resolve a bit.

If Titus hadn't been killed, I'd be reading this much the same - if this was a scumslip, I doubt it was related to Titus's actual death.

@fish

OK i missed that and I'm intrigued.

What was the timing involved? Are we talking minutes like it was part of a natural conversation or deadline loomong check in with scum partners

This all happened ~2 days before deadline. There were a few hours between the post before the possible slip and the slip. All the follow-up posts are spread out, with hours between each.

Jumping all over a "scum slip" is a towny thing to do.

no

absolutely not

Jumping on "scumslips" is an incredibly scummy thing to do unless there is VERY (and I mean VERY) hard evidence that it's not an awkward phrasing of language (and thus an actual, for real, slip).

The reason why being that jumping onto something that seems "objectively true" (i.e., accidentally revealing oneself as scum) allows scum to absolve themselves from actually developing fake reads from gameplay, tone, gut, etc., and can instead latch onto something that can easily be proven and isn't "wrong". Then, when Dunn (most likely) flips town, the onus is suddenly on him instead of Mcmenno or Gerry (not that gerry should be lynched or vigged btw). Everything about encouraging it is intellectually lazy and pro-scum.

What about Dunn's role

in the thread

is scummy? Even more important,

WHAT ABOUT KRASKA WAS EVEN SCUMMY

? kraska was stupidly obvious town and that read absolutely carries onto -Grey- too, even if he made an extremely sub-optimal vig (which btw screams more of town than scum)

fuck man, in the words of kraska.......

MURDER

CHARLOUX

MCMENNO

Let's be clear. You don't have to think Grey is scum here to think Dunn slipped.

What do you think of the actual post itself? That is, posting "Let's kill Titus" in a neighbourhood, apropos of nothing? This is not some accidental typo we're jumping all over. It's a post with a clear explanation if Dunn is scum who fucked up his browser tabs, and none if he is town.

In the thread - Dunn's play since then has rung alarm bells for me. I want him to answer my last post.

[Fishythefish]

Doctors should strongly consider protecting Grey tonight. As the last holder of the King of Diamonds, he's serious business.

[Fishythefish]

@giga: just a note - I think you're too hung up on protecting the two of diamonds. Understandable given your position, but your suicide is fairly unlikely, it's not the only two of diamonds, scum might shoot you anyway, and we can potentially revive them anyway. If Dunn/gerry is the best lynch by any appreciable margin, I'd say the two of diamonds should not be a dominant factor.

@MB: I disagree. It's very unlikely scum would have gone through with a vig shot on Titus after Dunn slipped. I don't think the post is good evidence against Grey. I also don't think Grey is scum for other reasons.

[Fishythefish]

gerry and McMenno picked a fight with a decently town-read, fairly influential player. They did so in a way that had no prospect of leading to his lynch, before I turned up - which they could not have predicted. So I don't think there's a good scum motive here. I could see one of them being scum, following the other - from the initial neighbourhood posts, where gerry reacted first, that would likely be McM following gerry. But my instinct is that they are town here.

[Fishythefish]

When and how did McMenno become obvious scum? Seems that we've all been calling him a little bit scummy for ages, and suddenly there's a real push on him. Where's it coming from?

[Fishythefish]

Vecna's post makes Grey an even better protect tonight; gives us two lynches tomorrow. And I can confirm that all diamonds are accounted for by those paying sufficient attention (which is a lot of attention).

UNVOTE:

With a lot on both sides Dunn's slip (or not) is one I struggle to be sure of the significance of. The fact that I've failed to persuade a single strong townread likely means I'm way up the wrong tree. (Still, I don't regret outing this. McMenno and gerry's way of doing this was only leading bad places)

VOTE: Uzi

[Fishythefish]

Vecna's post makes Grey an even better protect tonight; gives us two lynches tomorrow. And I can confirm that all diamonds are accounted for by those paying sufficient attention (which is a lot of attention).

Just want to confirm, you know that there's only 13 diamonds not in players' hands, not 14?

Because I still need to know about 1 more diamond. :/

Ah. No, I missed that. I also am missing a diamond.

[Fishythefish]

Fish's case is basically a gut feeling about my posts during the time the Maria wagon was taking off. I should've done better but I highly doubt I could've convinced anyone with Titus around.

No, it's not just that gut feeling. See my ISO, 137-140. To summarise - given your scumread on Maria Day 1, I find your lack of a vote or any interest in a significant Day 2 Maria wagon highly suspicious. The reason you've given for that - that you couldn't convince anyone with Titus around - makes little sense given that Maria was

already

the number two wagon. And is also really weak - Titus had no more than a moderate SR on you. Not exactly paralysing stuff.

If I was a stealth vig, I'd shoot MathBlade. Just saying.

Vecna requested neighbourisation ages ago, so it wasn't random. One of the little softclaim notes I made.

[Fishythefish]

Dunn had the 2 of clubs? That's a new claim, right?

[Fishythefish]

@Uzi:
On Day 2:
- The Maria wagon was second place all day (after Transcend's wagon dissolved)
- Titus never voted for you
- She did call you scum a few times - but nothing huge
There's no reason at all Titus's scumread on you would stop you voting Maria. That simply doesn't make any sense as a reason.

The cards coming up rock. No messing with them. Messing with those cards is a thing only scum would do. If you mess with the cards, we lynch you.

[Fishythefish]

@giga: you aren't going to get to confirm yourself. Hearts are coming in the night, IC is a day power.

[Fishythefish]

Your third observation proves the point I'm trying to make. Titus called me scum various times throughout that day for little to no reason at all. The only reason I would've had for voting for Maria would've been the same as the feelings I had about her Day 1. There was no way I was going to be able to get her or the rest of the town on board solely off of those feelings and with how hard she was scum reading me for thinking I was attempting to fish for cards. If anything, it would have only forced her to tunnel more since she was town reading Maria hard.

The problem is that a typical vote count on Day 2 looked like this:

DAY 2 VOTECOUNT #8

Jackel98 (6)

- SpyreX, Titus, gigabyteTroubadour, milkshake, Fishythefish, kraska77

MariaR (3)

- davesaz, Dunnstral, Vecna

kraska77 (2)

- Kison, Vedith

Lil Uzi Vert (2)

- drealmerz7, gerryoat

davesaz (2)

- McMenno, Jackel98

milkshake (1)

- Vifam

drealmerz7 (1)

- Transcend

Vedith (1)

- MariaR

Titus (1)

- Maxous

Not Voting (1)

- Lil Uzi Vert

With 20 alive, it takes 11 to lynch.

Deadline is set for (expired on 2016-12-19 13:01:49)

The MariaR didn't need a prophet. It had three perfectly respectable voters already (in fact, it was rather high quality). It needed followers, and you were nowhere to be seen.

And the pressure on you from Titus was just not that extreme; it's roughly the level of you being one of 5 scumreads Titus had. This can't be shown in quotes - the best thing for people to do here is ISO Titus themselves. Does anyone really believe that a fear of Titus kept Uzi from voting Maria on Day 2? I find it obvious nonsense.

[Fishythefish]

I thought magna's posting was OK, but nothing special. That slot has done basically nothing to generate a read, and so isn't a bad lynch. But I prefer Uzi. What do you think of Uzi?

[Fishythefish]

Currently leaning towards McMenno over AA9, simply because I prefer the wagon composition.

[Fishythefish]

A turnaround from what to what? I don't think that post contradicts anything I've said ever.

[Fishythefish]

Currently leaning towards McMenno over AA9, simply because I prefer the wagon composition.

what a sudden turnaround

hmmmmmmmmm

Presumably, this post is saying that my 4433 (leaning towards you over AA9, if that is the choice today) is a change from my previous position, and that that's suspicious in some way you can't be bothered to explain.

Actually, 4433 isn't a "turnaround" at all. I've never said anything much on AA9, and Uzi is still my preferred lynch.

[Fishythefish]

previously you made these posts

gerry and McMenno picked a fight with a decently town-read, fairly influential player. They did so in a way that had no prospect of leading to his lynch, before I turned up - which they could not have predicted. So I don't think there's a good scum motive here. I could see one of them being scum, following the other - from the initial neighbourhood posts, where gerry reacted first, that would likely be McM following gerry. But my instinct is that they are town here.

When and how did McMenno become obvious scum? Seems that we've all been calling him a little bit scummy for ages, and suddenly there's a real push on him. Where's it coming from?

indicating that you have a townread on me

and this one

I thought magna's posting was OK, but nothing special. That slot has done basically nothing to generate a read, and so isn't a bad lynch. But I prefer Uzi. What do you think of Uzi?

indicating that you have a nullread on the AA9 slot, even no read

yet you prefer my lynch over theirs. even throwing some weird-ass shade "and that's suspicious in some way you can't be bothered to explain."

and it doesn't matter that you've never specified the dynamics between myself and the AA9 slots, your posts are still in this thread

Yep, I think your play today is a bit more likely from town than scum; though as I say in that post, scum following gerry's lead also makes sense. 4331 isn't saying I have a townread on you at all. Overall; yeah, from your posting I would probably have aa9 as marginally more likely scum. The fact that I townread your wagon much more consistently than his outweighs that.

As for weird-ass shade: I was saying, perhaps a little snarkily, that you should actually explain yourself rather than saying "hmmmmmmm".

VOTE: AA9

I have a newfound townread on dunn feels like scum!fishy wanted to set us up

Wait, what? I say I'd rather lynch you than aa9, and that leads to you changng your mind on dunn? Why?

Vecna's post makes Grey an even better protect tonight; gives us two lynches tomorrow. And I can confirm that all diamonds are accounted for by those paying sufficient attention (which is a lot of attention).

UNVOTE:

With a lot on both sides Dunn's slip (or not) is one I struggle to be sure of the significance of.

The fact that I've failed to persuade a single strong townread likely means I'm way up the wrong tree.

(Still, I don't regret outing this. McMenno and gerry's way of doing this was only leading bad places)

VOTE: Uzi

also badposting to the extreme, though not necessarily alignment indicative

Care to explain?

[Fishythefish]

No, I haven't read that game yet. I will try to summon the will tomorrow or the day after. And probably a fair point about Dave and Dunn at the time.

[Fishythefish]

I think that's quite a stretch. I think those posts show that Dunn uses the word "kill" to mean "lynch". Which is unusual in my (out-of-date) experience, but much more likely than any other explanation.

VOTE: McMenno

The AA9 wagon has about 4/6 players in my PoE scumpool (LUV, Spyrex, Kison, McM). The McMenno wagon has none. Both are decent lynches. The choice is clear.

[Fishythefish]

I find myself without much to say. Let's get on with it and lynch McMenno.

Or, we could make both the possible lynches claim, and lynch the one with less useful and/or directable actions.

[Fishythefish]

Hah. OK, let's lynch McMenno then.

[Fishythefish]

With 3 days to deadline, we should be getting our shit together. And that means getting onto one of the two wagons which may result in a lynch. There's no good reason to vote elsewhere any more.

If you are struggling to decide which - do what I did and pick whichever you think has more town on it. Who votes for you is highly correlated with whether you are scum.

Spyrex being Beloved makes him unlynchable on a Spades day. That reduces our options, but isn't worth a lynch if we don't think he's scum. It's worth noting that you can always lynch him as the last win-or-lose lynch of the game. Hated (particularly with Beloved, but even on its own) is the power that really means you can't reach the endgame.

[Fishythefish]

Double hated like a boss get it right

Ah, this changes things a bit. A double-hated beloved townie is instant loss at N town vs N-3 scum (assuming scum kill at day start). Well, let's review tomorrow when we know more.

[Fishythefish]

If we hit scum today, it's 12v3. No immediate danger AFAIC. Anyway, we can talk tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

@gerryoat, Mathblade:

I was once convinced, as you are, that Dunn scumslipped. Where I am now:
- The phrasing of the offending post ("let's kill Titus") is phrasing he's used in thread and in other games, and Dunn wanted Titus dead. It's a plausible post from townDunn.
- The fact that Titus died isn't important. Scum just wouldn't go through with a kill they've scumslipped.
- The only remaining oddity is that it was a strange thing to say at that time in the neighbourhood. But scumslips are pretty rare as well; I don't think one is clearly a more likely explanation than the other.
- There's nothing else that points to Dunn being scum.
- So Dunn isn't that likely to be scum. Certainly not certain.

Even if you don't agree with the above, you need to make a decision between the McMenno and AA9 wagons. Even if you think both are town, that's the choice today. The later we leave the choice, the easier it is for scum to manipulate without looking bad, and the less time for claims which might influence a close decision like this one.

@Townies on the AA9 wagon:

I'm really worried that we've got two decent lynches, tied on about 7 votes (after AA9 gains TWIE, McM gains Dunn and AA9), with 2 possible scum (gerry, MathB), to declare. This is a situation where scum can easily influence the lynch, by switching or voting if they are off-wagon. Better for you to come over here. We are oozing town, and have cookies.

[Fishythefish]

so I remembered I haven't told where my mind is at

currently I'm on drealmerz, Fishy, Maxous and arcangel? I guess

if they are town I'd start looking at twie, luv and davesaz and grey

kison vecna and dunnstral are town I think

only gigabytetroubadour (duh), mathblade and gerryoat are really on my do not lynch list

I've left spyrex off for obvious reasons

Mcmenno's reads here can basically be summarised as:
Voting for me or is my counterwagon - scum
Not voting for me - townish
Might vote for me but isn't yet - super town

[Fishythefish]

@Vecna: do we *know* Transcend wasn't stealth vigged?

[Fishythefish]

so I remembered I haven't told where my mind is at

currently I'm on drealmerz, Fishy, Maxous and arcangel? I guess

if they are town I'd start looking at twie, luv and davesaz and grey

kison vecna and dunnstral are town I think

only gigabytetroubadour (duh), mathblade and gerryoat are really on my do not lynch list

I've left spyrex off for obvious reasons

Mcmenno's reads here can basically be summarised as:
Voting for me or is my counterwagon - scum
Not voting for me - townish
Might vote for me but isn't yet - super town

I'm not making this reads list for when I'm alive and frankly I'm sick of you twisting my words

look, the reality is that I'm very likely to be the lynch today and want to leave something behind, but most likely it'll be pushed aside by fuckers like you saying "oh he was biased by buddying" or what fucking ever

tempted to just selfhammer here but I won't

Ok. No need to argue about this list if isn't for today. Still - your town list lines up very, very well with the people you need to influence to live today. That's not twisting your words.

[Fishythefish]

Has anyone said vig=town?

[Fishythefish]

How about scum fish and town gerry? I've got them swapped from you.

okay well the point with fishy is he's go with the flow-y to the extreme, like see the dunnstral situation, he brought up the slip and when people were like "idk I don't really see it" he dropped it immediately because "his townreads weren't seeing it so he must be barking up the wrong tree also

I don't think this is true of the rest of my play in the game.

For the slip - I find it very hard to be sure how strongly it indicates anything, because it's a weird balance between unlikely explanations for a post. There are several players in this game who I trust the towniness and sensibleness of. I put the case as strongly and clearly as I could, and none of them thought it was important. In that situation, I'm going to listen to them.

so I remembered I haven't told where my mind is at

currently I'm on drealmerz, Fishy, Maxous and arcangel? I guess

if they are town I'd start looking at twie, luv and davesaz and grey

kison vecna and dunnstral are town I think

only gigabytetroubadour (duh), mathblade and gerryoat are really on my do not lynch list

I've left spyrex off for obvious reasons

Mcmenno's reads here can basically be summarised as:
Voting for me or is my counterwagon - scum
Not voting for me - townish
Might vote for me but isn't yet - super town

posts like these which are just throwing shade for no reason

I'm sure mathblade elaborate further

Actually, sorry about this post from me. It doesn't really hold up when I look at it more carefully to explain it fully. Your read list is not that skewed in the way I suggested.

Are there more "posts like these"? I feel like you're reading me based only on the last few pages. Which I'll freely admit aren't my best pages - I've been struggling for motivation today.

[Fishythefish]

AA should claim. Then we should lynch him, barring anything really shiny.

[Fishythefish]

Sorry for getting aa's gender wrong.

Yeah, scum don't pick the IC/suicide card. We really don't need a hearts day to know giga is town.

[Fishythefish]

if i do die (doubt it tbh) then my mason's claim can be verified by the clubs hood members btw

absolutely do not lynch them until XYLO (or with a guilty)

they know a lot of really important bits of info that should stay in town's hands

Are they obvtown in your private conversation, or just crucial if town?

[Fishythefish]

Well, we aren't getting a neighbourise any time soon. Probably not particularly worth planning. But if you did have one now and could identify them, Vecna's neighbour would be an excellent choice.

[Fishythefish]

We won't get a neighbourise before D6 (I know the N5 card, as well as what's in the public domain).

[Fishythefish]

(But I'm not, in fact, neighbours with Vecna. I don't want anyone to go neighbourising me).

[Fishythefish]

It's time to massclaim.

- There's no stealth vig.
- Scum have *plenty* of very good shots. Vecna, giga and I are widely townread with some or all known cards. Several players have claimed some cards. I expect massclaim will give scum some *more* good shots, but that's fine.
- Massclaim will very likely give us a scum lynch, for reasons I won't go into just now.

I really don't see that we are giving scum much by claiming, and the info we get from it is likely to be a big deal.

Objections?

[Fishythefish]

Hmmm. I really *hope* we don't have a ruleset that encourages quicklynching. I feel there should be a rule "you can't lynch anyone for 48 hours".

@mod: If we lynch within 48 hours, how do actions submitted before the lynch resolve? What about people who haven't submitted actions yet - are those just lost?

[Fishythefish]

Another reason for massclaim: the players we don't know much about correlate pretty well with the likely scumbags:

Fullclaimed or most info known

Fishy, giga, Grey, Mathblade, Vecna, Spyrex, McMenno, Dunn

A little known

gerryoat

Nothing known

davesaz, Kison, dreamer, LUV, TWIE, Maxous

It seems ridiculous to let scum hide when the obvtown players have mostly claimed lots of stuff.

[Fishythefish]

@Vecna: what do you mean by the card spy/shuffle order?

I'm not shuffling today unless I get info from a card spy saying I should - and nor should the other spy, in the unlikely event there is one.

[Fishythefish]

* the other shuffler

[Fishythefish]

Fuck massclaiming, that can happen after the McMenno/SpyreX lynch orgy.

No use informing scum before tomorrow. Let them shoot in the dark one more night.

Vecna, if I'm lynched first, the king of diamonds is no longer in play and thus there is no longer a second lynch. Your question seems like busywork.

It's not at all clear to me the McMenno/Spyrex are the right lynches, because:
- McMenno isn't really that scummy. I would expect massclaim to lead to a more certain scumlynch.
- There's no need for Spyrex to die if we know tomorrow isn't spades.
- Secret but good reasons that make one of these a bad lynch; I'll say more after the 48 hour mark.

[Fishythefish]

I meant we know tonights card, so we could also decide to shuffle first, then cardspy.

However, seeing how that card will actually be very usefull for a number of things, thats probably a pretty bad option. A much better option is indeed to look at the coming cards and have my hood partner decide whether the cards for tomorrow/tomorrownight are desirable or shuffle-bait.

You got the trumpcard info right Fishy? I still think its better to keep it a secret for a number of reasons since itll probably strongly influence mafia kill options. It might however, also influence our lynch choices for today. What do you think? (without giving any info away, or we can take it to the QT but having a middleman there is a nuisance).

Yep, I've got the info. I strongly agree they there should be no shuffle before spying - tonight's card is a good one.

I think we should keep tonight's card secret at least until 48 hours. At that point we should review, depending on who if anyone is dead. If you are dead, I'm likely to claim the upcoming night's card; I can't see a protown reason to hide it after the scumkill.

[Fishythefish]

Sounds good. FYI in case it matters in these discussions: I only know two of your drafted cards. Not sure if that's deliberate, and fine if it is.

[Fishythefish]

Vecna lives! That's a pleasant surprise.

My first thoughts:

1) With Spyrex's vig coming up, we shouldn't lynch him. If we double mislynch today, we shuffle the deck tonight and pray for no spades. If not, we don't shuffle. Either way, Spyrex shoots Mathblade tonight (the other bad spader, and not unlikely scum. We can direct this; there are no active docs tonight). This takes a risk of instaloss tomorrow. But if our first three scumpicks are all wrong, we're pretty much screwed without any silly spades mechanics.
2) Rigging something on N6 is quite attractive. Avoids a spade on D7. So I like reviving the JoS. Preferably to a likely townie but not a likely kill. I'd say avoid {giga, Fishy, Vecna}, but otherwise pick your towniest read.
3) The other revive being the 3 of clubs sounds good to me (we have two revivers, though one is hidden).
4) It's more important to get the Jack right than the 3. So I say Dunn revives the Jack, and the hidden reviver takes the 3.

[Fishythefish]

Hmmm. Could do. But the two of spades isn't a good rig:
- We have to keep Mathblade alive.
- Mathblade would be hated and beloved on day 7, and spyrex would still be double-hated.
- By shooting twos of diamonds, giga would die.
I'll think more about the details of how numbers line up with hated/double-hated players.

[Fishythefish]

I think I still want massclaim of initially drafted cards, and not actions.

Worst thing about it is that we might out a card cop or two. But really, they aren't that important. OTOH, pinning scum into fakeclaims now, before they know exactly what we can and can't prove, seems a great idea. Suspicious claims might well guide Inventory actions.

At least, I think all of the following people should claim:
- LUV
- TWIE
- Kison
- gerryoat
In a game like this, I think "massclaim of the scummy" seems a perfectly good move.

[Fishythefish]

I mean, I can't think of a single thing any of those people could claim that would make me regret forcing them to claim. There just isn't enough power in the deck to make them me care if scum kills them.

[Fishythefish]

Would be FBM, (though I'd prefer "scummiest to towniest" [giga can pick] than "bottom to top"; high drafted players find lying just as difficult as low drafted players, AFAIC).

Vecna

is probably the biggest anti-claim person around - thoughts?

[Fishythefish]

3c isn't the deck rigger - the interesting thing about it is its inventory power, which is coming up in the deck.

Double JoS could also work. Agreed that targeting a jack revive is another reason for mass claim. Either way, the revive target(s) shouldn't be claimed.