In post 11929, Reasonably Rational wrote:You have RECENT examples of the scum play and town play of BOTH of us in large, complex games. Why aren't you using those games?
I am? I mean, I didn't spectate Shadowrun mafia, nor Space Dandy 2 mafia (because that whole game was in two PTs, and I didn't bother to PM V for access to them). The game before that?
Steven Universe Prequel. Which I don't think is representative of your play here--you were mislynched D2, and thus never were fully "in" the game.
The game before that?
Suikoden (town), a game I
have
referenced.
The game before that?
Trouble in the Cougar's Den (scum). A game I HAVE referenced.
The game before that?
This game's predecessor,
Steven Universe Mafia (town). A game I HAVE referenced.
Of course, there's a game with both of you plus someone else, that being,
Gistou (scum), a game...I HAVE referenced, in spite of how you got nightkilled N2 before you were really "in" the game.
Now how about individual heads? Which, by the way, isn't quite as valid, because while you two play similarly, your play as a hydra IS distinctly different from a solo game, but for the sake of argument let's look anyway. For Cerb...how far back do I have to go to find a game where I saw Cerb solo? Well, not quite solo (he was hydraing with me but I did almost none of our posting), but that'd be
Soccer Spirits (town). To be fair, I haven't referenced this game in relationship to you two, but it's been brought up for other reasons. Do you want me to talk about Cerb there? Because the Cerb there did more in ONE day alive than Cerb has done here the whole damn game.
Then you get
Bloodborne Mafia (town). Okay, so that's a hydra, too. But in that game, Cerb was gamesolving CONSISTENTLY. The whole time, from the start, and trying to break the game at every step of the way. He was planning, he was plotting, and he did correct flavor speculation. He almost had the game on lockdown, if not for lolscum endgame mechanics. (Which, mind you, was a Varsoon game.)
The game before that?
Uni MUM (town) which frankly I never even read and the game was abandoned half-way through (I forget why). I suppose I could research it because technically I was a player in it, but doing so would be effectively the same as ANY secondhand game I did not read when it was ongoing, in that I'd be reading everything after it had happened. (Which mind you is one reason I never bothered to read Space Dandy II. When I read a game, I read it when it is still ongoing. Not when it has already concluded. Concluded games I'll maybe take a look at the PTs of, but only if I was reading the game to get context for said PT.)
The game before that?
SaGa Frontier, not a towngame but a third party game of Cerb's. (Also not solo, but that's beside the point.)
The game before THAT?
Final Fantasy Mafia (town). Which, mind you, contained nothing BUT scumhunting from Cerb--he did almost no mechanics work whatsoever. It was pure simple scumhunting basically the whole game, where he thought everything through and carefully weighed everything.
Before even THAT?
Inorganic Chemistry (town), where Cerb engaged in both scumhunting AND gamebreaking, at least attempts at it.
Before THAT?
We Didn't Playtest This (town), a game similar to Uni MUM in that I basically read zero of it, so it'd be no different from second-hand experience. That's every game I've had with Cerb. And most of them, I have referenced already.
For Drixx, the list is similar. I suppose I did (briefly) skim
Wake's Role Madness Game (town), but to be honest I never once saw Drixx post; the parts of the game I read were elsewhere.
I suppose I did have a look at
Guns 'N Roses Mafia (town), but I only started reading that
after
Drixx was dead. Like, I think I started skimming around day four or five. So I didn't see him there, either.
What else? The same Uni MUM I mentioned for Cerb, I suppose.
Drixx has
SaGa Frontier as a town game of his, though I'd need to refresh my memory on his individual contribution. (The main part of games I read in detail is the last day phase of a game, plus random snippets prior to then. Drixx was dead by the last day phase, so I don't have memorized his contribution; I'd need to look it up to get a refresher.)
Do you know how far back the
next
Drixx game is?
That would be
Wifom City (town). To be honest, I had basically forgotten that game existed (sorry, Titus) in spite of my massive contribution there, yet alone, that Drixx was a player there. So I'd have to get a refresher on his contribution there.
The game before that? My introduction to Drixx,
SMITE Mafia. (Scum.) Which I did in fact reference.
That's all of them. I've been referencing the newer, relevant games that I have better knowledge of, rather than some obscure game I don't know anything about. You're asking me to reference newer games I have zero knowledge of--blind meta. Something that no, I don't believe in doing. I'll give meta from a game I've so much as skimmed. I'll give meta from games I haven't read IF I have no other resource available as a move of last resort. (I.e., the game or games I
really
want to reference are ongoing and therefore cannot be referenced so I'm forced to improvise and lie thanks to site rules, and find something vaguely similar to the game in question I'm REALLY looking at.) But otherwise? With a player I have multiple completed games with? Damn straight I'll be using first-hand meta rather than blind meta.
Why, then, would he give Sadie as a fake claim to someone with a power that didn't match the flavor?
The two are completely different beasts entirely.
Lapis Lazuli doesn't make sense for a scum's fakeclaim because it's a shitty fakeclaim. People would wonder if grapes was scum just from the flavor alone, and that's
before
knowing of the third parties in the game. AFTER knowing of the third parties in the game, Lapis Lazuli seems like a mighty fine candidate for being one...and site standard (ESPECIALLY after SaGa) would be...to fucking lynch any and all suspected third parties this game.
Sadie being a fakeclaim to someone with a power that doesn't match the flavor isn't the same, because it's more a case of "eh, close enough". I said I struggle to see Sadie match your flavor--not that it is absolutely impossible. I say that Army fits your ability easily. That makes sense to me. We also know that scum's event abilities are tied to the flavor of their fakeclaims, so individual abilities aren't as important as the episode abilities are, and Beachapalooza is something that from my understanding would in fact be tied to Sadie.
Basically, what I'm saying is: scum's powers (minus episode event) match the scum player's flavor first, and then they have a fakeclaim which is "as close to possible" the role in question (after which the episode event is added in). Sadie might be the closest possible role to have that ability...but it's not easy for me to see. It feels like a fakeclaim, rather than an original role.
Varsoon does a good job at hiding fakeclaims from realclaims. Varsoon does a good job of making scum's roles fit to their fakeclaims. Varsoon is an excellent moderator who can disguise who the scum are well...but he is NOT perfect at this. Cerb knows this, considering he managed to catch scum in Bloodborne by using flavor. It wasn't easy. But it also wasn't impossible.
Farside had to die for scum to win and was unlynchable: Demonstrably untrue, and already addressed in 11848
Yeah no. Farside was immune to the scum's nightkill. Farside had a vote ability which could lynch a player with only half the needed votes as normal. Farside was proven to have been the scum's nightkill. Farside was given an absurdly strong role which would be absolutely gamebreaking in the hands of scum. (Ascetic = effectively a godfather, immune to investigation and immune to actions being prevented so a semi-strongman and semi-ninja. Roleblocker = roleblocker, which has an OBVIOUS strength to it. Voting power = overwhelming advantage for scum to have, ESPECIALLY in conjunction with Skybird's double vote and DGB's vote thief ability. In short, farside as scum with Skybird and DGB could endgame the town WELL before expectations. That combination was never going to be a scum role.)
Both MagnaofIllusion and I were hardcore defending farside. And while it's true, the scum will eventually kill me...you said it yourself. MoI has a way to preserve his life. MoI would be around to keep pushing. And even if one of us died! Thanks to the crystal gem's ability, we would be preserved in a chat with the surviving crystal gem, and be able to influence said crystal gem posthumously. With the other still alive, that would mean farside could still not be lynched.
And let's say both of us DID die. Let's say, even, that randomidget either died (eliminating the crystal gems), or was unable to convey our thoughts effectively. The fact that we died when we both were adamant farside was to never be killed would've been proof enough of farside being town. Sure she might kill ONE person defending her. Both of her strongest defenders? FUCK no. People don't do wifom kills, ever. Like, never ever. LEAST of all, farside. And if so! Maybe one. Never two in a row! That's not wifom, that's fucking suicidal.
And then there would be getting a majority on farside because of all of these reasons. And mind you farside STILL has that voting power so that unless the whole fucking majority of the town decides to lynch her, she can push through any lynch necessary to keep herself alive. In 6p, it would take four players to lynch her. In comparison, it'd take only one (or maybe two?) votes for her to lynch someone. So it'd be nearly impossible for the scum to wiggle their way into mislynching farside EVEN WITH BOTH ME AND MAGNA GONE. Which you yourself point out is nigh-impossible because Magna can save himself BY YOUR OWN FUCKING WORD.
So
yes
. Farside was immune to being lynched. YES. That means scum needed her dead.
Scum don't need a mastermind, and if they did, such mastery is a blatant contradiction to the actions scum appear to have taken if they possessed the knowledge we've had this game.
I've already explained this one.
Scum may not need a mastermind.
But the actions of scum, contrary to what you are saying, have not been "dumb". No. Scum have made moves that were
ridiculously
optimal. As just one example, triggering that voting ability after farside's hammer. As another, how coordinated they were during the Beachapalooza event. (Literally the ONLY way you can argue them to have not ALL voted in coordination is by arguing that one/both of Fuzzy/Shiro are scum. Because otherwise, to get the needed votes for Titus/mastina, you need the whole living scumteam to have contributed. In other words: regardless of Almost50/grapes/RR, the scumteam was coordinated.)
That NOT ONLY suggests a scum mastermind, but ALSO shows that scum have been making strategic, coordinated, optimal plays taking into account hidden knowledge that is not known by the rest of the town.
Furthermore! You posit that you contain knowledge which means that you couldn't be scum because scum with your knowledge wouldn't make the plays you have.
Both I and MagnaofIllusion have shown that point to be pretty blatantly false. We don't know what the thought process behind the scumteam has been. (More on that as soon as I'm caught up.) You're pretending that we do. You're assuming that you as scum have perfect knowledge of the game. You're assuming you as scum are not immune to fucking up. You're assuming you as scum aren't capable of making a misplay. You're assuming you as scum cannot make a move which is seemingly suboptimal but serves a longterm agenda. You're assuming you as scum cannot make a move which was assumed optimal but which in hindsight proved to be a mistake. Yet none of those are true.
You are
good
as scum. You are not GODS as scum. You are human. You can make mistakes. You can make plans which rely on exploiting assumptions of you being unable to make a mistake. There are so fucking many reasons why you could have made the plays you have as scum. And pretending they all can't exist is lunacy.
A town!RR at this point would be acknowledging the reasons why I am so damn suspicious of you. A town!RR would recognize and understand EXACTLY why I think you are scum. A town!RR at this point in the game would be a bit upset that I am wrong, but wouldn't be focusing on trying to prove I am wrong. A town!RR would know, recognize, and understand that, yes, they look scummy, yes, the reasons they are town aren't so easily known, and yes, they are suspicious. This insistence on proving yourself to not be scum, this assurance that this couldn't POSSIBLY be your scumgame, is exactly why this is your scumgame.
5) Scum!RR COULDN'T have shot last night: Scum!RR knew A50 was tracking grapes most likely, and that Fuzzy was shooting Farside or A50(Scum!RR doesn't care if he gets shot, because in the scenario you're positing the game is over if he's shot). Scum!RR could have EASILY not pushed Farside and just let fuzzy shoot A50, while Scum!RR shoots whoever he wants EXCEPT farside, secure in the knowledge that A50's track won't be clearing anyone.
Yeah this is pretty blatantly false as well.
One, farside needed to die in order for a scumteam to win. (See above for why.)
Two, ANY shot a scum!RR takes will instantly clear Fuzzy of being scum, which is suicide.
Three, if Fuzzy shot scum!RR, the game is over...so that, IN OF ITSELF, seems to be a pretty damn convincing reason to persuade Fuzzy to shoot at farside, because the risk of Fuzzy shooting a scum!RR is too high otherwise.
Four, let's say Fuzzy shot farside, and RR performed a kill. Well, Almost50 is alive, and gets a result which clears grapes.
So, a scum!RR's ONLY play is not shooting last night. If Fuzzy shoot's scum!RR, it doesn't matter who RR shoots, RR still loses. If Fuzzy shoots farside, RR has reason to not allow Fuzzy or grapes to be cleared. If Fuzzy shoots Almost50, then RR still has reason to NOT shoot, because while grapes would remain unclear, the scumpool would still remain in Fuzzy/grapes/RR...with seven alive, after Shiro was revived. A game which RR cannot win in. (Short of two scum paranoia. Which, mind you...is exactly the fucking thing you're pushing.)
There is no way Varsoon thought any of the gems would be lynched, UNLESS whoever received the miller role didn't claim it D1.
Yeah no.
The crystal gems sound an awful lot like a possible second scumteam. Their wincon doesn't flip upon their death. They are all apparently confirmed to each other alignment-wise. They are given abilities which are focused on survival for the most part. They even have a nightkill of sorts. And given that the crystal gems were so secretive and distrustful, something that would not at all be hard to anticipate in setup design, it would be RIDICULOUSLY easy for at least one of them to get lynched...
especially
if the gems thought it was possible for someone among their ranks to be scum. Apparently, they know each other to be town, but this is not universal; we know from Yume that Yume wasn't absolutely sure all the gems were town. Now! Maybe that was a misunderstanding on Yume's part. But the fact that Yume HAD that belief, even if it was a misunderstanding, implies intentional ambiguity on Varsoon's end in regards to the crystal gems. Which means, they could have potentially supported lynching of one another.
There are dozens of reasons for why the crystal gems, as a third party, were super fucking vulnerable. They absolutely are comparable to the Undead Risen Slaves,
especially
given their apparent wincon requires them to keep someone from the Earth alive, meaning that they can't rely solely on their alleged masonry in order to win. They MUST scumhunt. They MUST correctly identify a town player and keep said town player alive the whole game. It could be any town player, but they must keep at least one town alive. That itself is a weakness in them.
The gems have a RIDICULOUS number of counterbalances to them built in. Among them, the MANY scum killing powers. MULTIPLE scum strongmen. (Given correct conditions, at least.) Slice of Life being an automatic scum strongman. The cluster killing power being likely to take out a gem. Historical Friction potentially serving as a mass-rolecop that could expose the gems. Whatever the fuck the power was which instantly killed Yume. The scum's power which allowed them to stop votes which didn't come from alliances. (A power which could potentially COST THE TOWN AN ENTIRE DAY, and almost did!) That same power giving the scum an extra kill if a scum lynch was possible. (At the slight cost of commuting the scumteam if they lynch town...which isn't really much of a cost, because the scumteam becoming untargetable prevents them from being exposed.) The scum have had countless methods of manipulating the gamestate to punish the gems in various different ways.
And furthermore! The scum have possessed MULTIPLE powers that have "confirmed" them as town. Skybird's "Sworn to the Sword" event ONCE AGAIN giving scum access to the Steven Universe player. (This, incidentally, ties into the above: since scum knew who Steven Universe was from D1, they would BY DEFAULT know AT LEAST one of the crystal gems, if not all if the player who is Steven Universe decided to trust "Connie" enough to out the other gems. Which remains a 50/50 possibility! We still don't know if Yume told Skybird or not.)
Shadow_step's ability was a pretty effective one, as it pseudocleared Shadow_step for days.
Scum's events have, as Varsoon has stated, been tied to town flavors and been immensely pro-town in nature.
The scum have had every possible counter they've needed for the town's strength. The crystal gems are a faction which have a few strengths, but many weaknesses. And furthermore! Of the three players who were confirmable as town, one RELIES ON A THIRD PARTY to be considered town (that would be me), a second is ONLY CONFIRMED TOWN IN 3P LYLO (a scenario incredibly unlikely to ever be reached), and only the third had a power which was absolute (but was on a delayed timer--Titus could have been mislynched during any day, because her power was a Climax power and also a low priority at the start). That gives scum plenty of wiggle room to mislynch said conftown.
Sure. Maybe given this playerlist, and these conditions, the crystal gems were never getting lynched. Sure. Given this playerlist, and these conditions, I wouldn't get lynched. But we have the game itself to prove how conftownable players (in this case, kraskaesque) can get lynched. The numbers absolutely make sense.
You have five explicitly third-party players, one of which who could play as a survivor (and therefore favor scum). You have a soft sixth third party, who if playing to the third party wincon rather than the town wincon will be removed from the game victorious, and thus not care about town or scum. (And therefore by default...favors scum.) That leaves 19 players remaining. We know that there must be at least five groupscum. We also know there is one traitor who is aligned with the groupscum. That leaves a ration--AT BEST--of 13:6.
And you're suggesting that it's 12:7?
Or even, 12:4:7? (Including the crystal gems who are explicitly crystal gems.)
FUCK no, that's not balanced in any realm.
Yeah, if the two third parties who could favor scum (Xkfyu, farside) decided to play town (as both did), the town gains an edge: an extra crystal gem (still third party, mind you), and an extra town player.
But Varsoon explicitly gave those players a third party wincon possibility. And balance, therefore, DEMANDS. DICTATES. That the game must balance in accordance with the assumption they could favor their third party wincons which can in fact favor scum. (Survivor-->goes for the quickest win. Farside-->gets removed from the game as fast as possible, pulling anti-town stunts to get the needed number of points, and upon her removal, is automatically one less person alive and therefore one step closer to a scum win.)
You are treating the third parties as being treated explicitly as town.
But while in practice they may have played out that way, in theory, in GAME DESIGN, they weren't. They're ambiguous-at-best.
And all of this.
Every fucking single word you have written.
Continues to be a dodge of the damn point I am making.
You still. aren't. scumhunting. You still. aren't. gamebreaking. You STILL. aren't. laying out clear paths (PLURAL) to victory, which take into account the powers we have in play. You still aren't talking about how to best utilize every tool at our disposal.
Instead, you continue to focus on defending yourself.
But yes, i suppose she could be specifically a 3p survivor. If that was confirmed to Yume, she might be willing to just tell town that she's town, because it's confirmed that she's NOT groupscum. Still doesn't explain her not telling the rest of her faction about that detail(though maybe she did, and the rest of the faction is therefore(correctly) taking mastin off the lynch table), but it's a bit more plausible than Yume outright lying. Her push seems desperation-based. She's essentially pulling out all the stops in it. I'm having a lot of trouble parsing where the line between desperate entreaty because she sincerely believes this and outright attempted manipulation lies. I've said this before in this game(and she hasn't denied it): mastin isn't above manipulating the town, AS TOWN, to get them to do what she believes is correct. I KNOW she's doing things in this push that are manipulative(such as deliberately misinterpreting my VERY early question to her about why we might believe farside was a threat, and using very old meta that supports her position, rather than new meta which DOES NOT), but because I know that she isn't someone who relies solely on facts to push a lynch, I don't know if she's doing it for pro-town or anti-town reasons.
