STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[Varsoon]

"We

rented

a boat. I may be rich, but buying a boat would be going a bit

overboard

."

Greg,

Alone at Sea

VOTECOUNT 9.03

Grapes (4):

Almost50, Reasonably Rational, randomidget, MagnaofIllusion

Reasonably Rational (2):

Mastin2, Shiro

Almost50 (1):

grapes

Not Voting (1):

Thefuzzylogic99

With 8 Alive, it takes 5 to Lynch.
Deadline

: (expired on 2017-01-07 00:00:00)

The Current Stress is -1:

Magna of Illusion is V/LA until Jan 2.
Reasonably Rational is V/LA until Jan 3.

[grapes]

Hey guys.

Stopping assume scum is town for bad reasons!

Have a good new year.

[Shiro]

Happy new year all, early,late or present

[Reasonably Rational]

Hey guys.

Stopping assume scum is town for bad reasons!

Have a good new year.

Happy new year all, early,late or present

Thanks, and the same to all of you.

(Also, I got my computer shit fixed! Yay! I'll actually do shit now!)

-Cerb

[Randomnamechange]

happy new year everyone!

[Almost50]

I'm actually ahead of "most" of you. I'm already IN 2017

Happy New Year

[Shiro]

I'm actually ahead of "most" of you. I'm already IN 2017

Happy New Year

I have bee. In new year for 6 and a half hours mate. What ua got! ?

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Happy New years guys....... I know I'm late but ,,,,,,,,

[Almost50]

@Shiro:

That's why I said "most". I'm in the same time zone as you. GMT +2

[mastin2]

Hey guys. Stopping assume scum is town for bad reasons!

Yeah! My thoughts exactly!

[mastin2]

Like...do you want me to go through my three-page iso and quote literally everything I find relevant?
Because at this point I can't see what else I can do.
I've explained why I feel everyone else is town. Nobody's responded to my reasons for players being town. They've just dismissed it.
I've explained why I feel Reasonably Rational is scum. People have cherrypicked, nitpicked, details they disagree with, and been using that singular instance as if it dismisses the entire case.

[mastin2]

(Incidentally, this is my second-longest solo game, and third-longest iso of all. The two games beating this one? Tales of you, hydraing with MafiaSSK even though I did the vast majority of our posting, and Sabotage Mafia Reloaded. Also, incidentally: this game just so happens to remind me of how much I had to pull hairs in order to get Cephrir lynched in spite of Cephrir having a fucking hider guilty on him. And ALSO how I was fighting oh so DESPERATELY to get AP lynched in Tales of You in spite of the cop innocent because I knew AP was a godfather there. Few things are more frustrating than knowing you are right and having to fight against literally the whole fucking town to get your way, especially when you...don't.)

[mastin2]

(Sabotage Mafia also makes a great parallel to this game because in that game I gained IClike powers after N1, and yet in spite of me using them largely optimally, I was unable to be absolutely confirmed town. Also, because in that game while I had moments of good play I also had many moments of not-so-stellar play. Also also in that game, I suffered from apathy during certain moments--namely the sucky ones--which dragged my play down. Also, in spite of me being effectively conftown from D2 onward, I never got nightkilled even though there was every opportunity and reason for me to die. Very frustrating, that sensation.)

[Almost50]

I can tell you why you'll never be killed in THIS game before LyLo/MyLo though, but I'm guessing you're bright enough to deduce it all by yourself.

OK, another "bad logic" of mine: You've allied with S_S. Before that your powers were unknown to scum, I get that. But from then on they knew of that +2 lynch threshold.

The question is: Why have the RR duo not tried to propose an alliance with you at any given time? Riddle me this, and please do take into account they knew all along you're going to be pushing them because you didn't make it a secret that you -at least- suspected that slot more than any other.

[mastin2]

I can tell you why you'll never be killed in THIS game before LyLo/MyLo though, but I'm guessing you're bright enough to deduce it all by yourself.

I've run the math there. Scum want me dead regardless of who they are, so I won't be. (My power doesn't work during mylo, so no matter what, I stop being of use alive.) YOU, on the other hand......

You've allied with S_S. Before that your powers were unknown to scum, I get that. But from then on they knew of that +2 lynch threshold. The question is: Why have the RR duo not tried to propose an alliance with you at any given time?

One, because doing so would be a scumclaim (they have no pretense of being able to speak to me thanks to my power disabling that, and their own ally power was stolen by Titus so the only reason they'd have for allying with me would be to gain access to said power), and two, because they had no intention of ever needing that increased lynch threshold. (Also, three: Yume more or less has known what my power was since D1. If Yume blabbered about it to RR--or even Skybird!--then scum would have known about it well before allying with Shadow_step. I told Yume my ally power was lynch related and many of the conditions for it.)

Sure, they've seen my increasing suspicion on them. But that suspicious doesn't mean a damn fucking thing if I can't actually get anyone to FOLLOW me, now, does it?

[mastin2]

When I get the chance to talk to Drixx, we will be voting either Snarky or TWIE. From my perspective, both will, with a town flip, mostly clear another slot. With a scum flip, they will implicate another slot.

Prior to mastins revelation, TWIE was a townread of Drixxs, and Snarky a scumread, and given that I know varsoon doesn't like cops, I would be utterly unsurprised if there were numerous false positives in the game, I don't give much weight to the guilty. Personally, I'm more likely to vote snarky than TWIE, because I find masins request reasonable and that follows with my other heads reads, but I don't think Drixx has caught wind of the situation, so we'll see where he's at asap

Nobody KNEW grapes was town. There is a huge gulf between probtown by play and conftown cuz scum shot at them.

Snarky and twie lynches, if they flip town, both clear another slot (fuzzy in snarkys case, farside in TWIE's case), and implicate another slot if they flip scum...except TWIE's clear if town is actually weaker than snarkys clear on fuzzy. That, plus the recent information about twie makes it seem a lot more valuable to lynch snarky over TWIE.

What are your scumreads cerb?

Farside's at the top for the reason I just gave, along with a host of other things. TWIE is also a possibility because of the missing kill last night, but that's dependent upon varsoon and his answers to my question. The gems could have a traitor within who convinced them going into the night at -4 stress would somehow be beneficial, but I don't know which one that could be. I know who two of them are, but without knowing al three I can't judge which is most likely among all of them.
There's also a nonzero chance shiro is scum, considering he hasn't actualy done anything all game long.
Fuzzy is 90% town with snarkys flip (only way he's not is if his team deliberately let snarky live because they were afraid they would be lynched if they didn't have him around as a distraction), farside flip is most relevant for this particular scenario since she was, during the time the event was decided, the other most likely lynchee.

Fyi Mastin (and Shiro will corroborate) Titus set out an action plan, and the first point was lynching Farside, not TWIE. Sorting TWIE (not lynching him) was actually the fifth or sixth item.

VOTE: Farside22

^And relevant to that:

Farside22 (4):

ReasonablyRational

, Thefuzzylogic99, Creature, Almost50

TheWayItEnds (2):

Kraskaeaque, mastin2

Creature (2):

MagnaofIllusion, Farside22

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (4):

Shiro, grapes, randomidget, TheWayItEnds

Farside22 (3):

ReasonablyRational

, Thefuzzylogic99, Creature

Creature (3):

MagnaofIllusion, Farside22, Almost50

TheWayItEnds (2):

Kraskaeaque, mastin2

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (4):

Shiro, grapes, randomidget, TheWayItEnds

General

– Chara absolutely wants TWIE to be the lynch today for doing no scum-hunting but being here to whine like a child.

@NC: there are 4 slots among the voters(if we exclude conftown and gems), who have one scum among them, and the rest will be confirmed as town once we find the scum in that group. I'm VERY sure that scum is Farside22, and would much prefer to create 3 more conftown today, than 1)create this same situation tomorrow, if we hit scum outside of the voters, or 2) mislynch+change that pool to a 50/50.

Looking at just that, the lynch pool for today should be {TWIE, Farside} as those were the top suspects of Titus and Mastin, plus Titus dying along with how Farside unilaterally and scummily ended the day yesterday was going to put her squarely in the crosshairs. I can't give you much of a case on TWIE because he hasn't posted a whole lot. That could go either way though because he tends to be a late game player. In my reads list to A50 I instructed him to relay our wish that TWIE be put under heavy pressure if he didn't start looking like he was invested and gamesolving by day 6.
I don't know what to make of his claim that he vigged Farside but she didn't die, and he doesn't seem the least bit interested in explaining it. Farside, on the other hand, opened the day demanding whomever had targeted her to claim. TWIE is the only person to have claimed to target her ... but it was with a kill. I'm pretty sure ascetic doesn't block kills? But then Farside said in post #9618 that she is "ascentic" (immune) from all action except being shot by scum. If Scum!Farside, then that post is just window dressing. If Farside is actually 3P, that sort of makes sense. Town!Farside is a miniscule possibility at this point and would require her to have intentionally game thrown, and I just don't see that being realistic.

That's mainly directed at you mastin2. The other two voting TWIE are the people we'd lynch instead of him, so I wouldn't expect them to csre. :p

Anyone else notice how the entire wagon on twie is people who would otherwise be lynched today (with the exception of mastin)?

(By the way everyone on said wagon at this point with the exception of me is already-flipped town.)

@Creature: obviously A50, myself, farside, and kraska. One scum flip in this group=3 conftown, unless there are 7+scum.

(Not TWIE related, but noteworthy all the same.)

And again, I freely admit to fearmongering, because you're all fucking idiots if you don't understand why an uncontrollable multivoter of unknown alignment CAN NOT BE IGNORED.
You say my fear is that she makes it easier to lynch scum towards lylo? Perhaps you forget that the majority of the game IS TOWN. Even if she were town, it will ALWAYS be more likely that she will enable a lynch on town, rather than one on scum.

(Also not TWIE-related, but also important to note.)

TWIE and Creature are the compromise lynches. I'll support either ones lynch, on the condition that farside waste the maximum number of points on whoever we lynch over each of the next couple days (including today), after establishing for certain who two agrees should be lynched.

Also, MoI, today should NOT be TWIE versus creature. It should be farside. Period. It coming to creature /twie is a result of your foolishness and stubbornness. There SHOULD be 5 votes on farside right now, the three already there and two from yourself and random.

Farside is, Creature probably is, TWIE might be, Shiro might be, Fuzzy likely isn't, mastin VERY likely isn't, MoI/Random are third party and who knows wtf they want, Grapes likely isn't(but ignoring TWIES claim, I have no objective reason to believe he's town, it's all "yeah looks town because he feels town because he just does"), S_S might be (I have a little trouble reconciling power level of a Goon versus what we've seen in flips from all sides).
Kraska needs more research on my part. Clearing the scum event is undeniably pro-town, the fact that she could only do so at negative stress is an indication that it's a scum power (see Skybird's strongman), but it's a stretch to think scum triggered the event just do kraska could clear it for town cred.

(Bonus points for shitty S_S defense!)

@Mastin: I've avoided joining any wagons other than farside's because I didn't want to enable her votes. NOW though, I think both other wagons are past the threshold, so a farside lynch is basically impossible without a bunch of unvoting, since she can just hammer either one.
With that said, your line of reasoning regarding TWIE makes a fuckton of sense, and Drixx did say that he wanted you playing the game and to get out of your way. I'll check in with him, but given his position that twie should be gamesolving by D6, and our proximity to said day,I'm pretty sure that Drixx will agree that TWIE is objectively the best lynch for today, EVEN in the face of the numerous reasons to suspect Creature.
VOTE: TWIE

Just some choice quotes from Reasonably Rational's iso I'd like to point out.

[mastin2]

We want DGB+TWIE to continue their alliance tomorrow, assuming a snarky lynch here? We don't want farside allied with anyone, right?

DGB are both pretty null to me. I like DGBs recent involvemsnt, it's way more than I've ever seen her do...ever. makes me want her to be town.

(By the way, the original read was a scumread on D1.)

SirCakez's ability allowed him (and his team, later) to look for Jasper. i can't think of what this would indicate besides Jasper being the flavour of a traitor. (as she obviously is not a "Threat To Earth" if they would have to search for her) but the player with Jasper flavour could also in no way be aligned with earth.
if someone could think of a different thing Jasper could be, i am all ears. i brought this up because i hadn't seen it being spoken about, but there has been talk of a traitor between Klingoncelt and DGB.

Good point. That makes the whole "traitor" thing way more suspicious now because there was no reason to posit a traitor. That also raises this question: why on EARTH would we have helped and pushed for an SC lynch if we were on a scum team with him and his role was the role that finds what is presumably a traitor?

^By the way: RR's a flavor/mechanical champion, and they didn't think of this point earlier...why?
Also, with DGB having claimed traitor D1, the whole point about SirCakez's traitor-hunting ability was superfluous: since the scum knew there was a traitor, and knew DGB was claiming traitor, SirCakez's traitor-hunting ability was rendered redundant.

The DGB thing is so blatant and feels like it wouldn't have been necessary....

And DGB already claimed that she misunderstood, so there's no evidence of any ability to sabotage alliances...at least not as relates to you alliance with dgb. I sorta feel like your reasoning here is a reach.
The possibility if her legitimately being an actual traitor though, that's a reason for suspicion that's not wholly improbable, in the event that the traitor does not know the scum teams identify. Her inclusion of multiple abilities in her claim (one of which was ascetic, which she didn't publicly claim, and which discourages further checking) makes it easy for her to claim it waa "just a joke/gambit", though of course then the question is...what sort of gambit are you running that you made your claim ,meant to gather knowledge from a potential member of the scum team, implausible.

So, I ask DGB: what were you seriously trying to do amd why didn't you claim to be ascetic in the Prequel/D1?
I just don't think the whole dgb alliance thing has a good chance of being related to a plan to kill you.

Who is scum RR?

Probably fucking DGB except the fact that KC of all fucking people died last night looks a HELL of a lot like a shitty framing attempt aimed at DGB.

@NC: what are you basing the DGB read off of exactly? I know there are some things, I've brought them up myself, but I'd like to hear your reasoning.

when i last ISOed her, i literally found no town evidence. the only scumhunting-ish behaviour is when she brings up lurkers promising to catch up (Cooldog) or Seraphim saying he was busy and would catch up the next day. and that isn't counting her behaviour in the topic with Klingon, because it's her in-thread behaviour that concerns me.
in between her reads posts, most of her content is ignoring major game events in favour of fluff responses. which aren't bad in and of themselves, but it's like she isn't concerned with engaging the thread at all.

All NAI for her, in my experience. I bitched on like D1 about her noncontribution in every game I've ever played with her.
Anything else?

Granted, the late ascetic claim was obviously not telling in mathblades case but they friggin LIED about having claimed it earlier, so...yeah.

(Aside from DGB defense this is a quite fine demonstration of how RR has consistently blamed the flipped town for "they lied!" the whole damn game to justify it never being their fault for being 'wrong'. It's always the other person's fault.)

And I'm not voting for dgb because if you do use your vote thing to lynch her, I want it to cost you as much as possible.

Something I just realized that sorta makes me want to reevaluate dgb, except for the fact that her play rarely makes sense to me, so maybe it would be a mistake to lend any weight to this: she didn't use her vote steal in a scummy way at all. Klingon regained her vote, so clearly she was capable of NOT stealing it/not revealing she could steal it...but all she did was take it early game and see who noticed the extra vote, claimed it, and then gave it back.
Why expose what is basically an I win card late game if she didn't have to? I mean sure, it's quite possibly lylo limited, but considering it requires someone ally with her, it could easily not be because it requires she be townread enough to get someone to ally with her in that situation.

^This one's golden.

DGB is obvscum from the second KC flipped as a Crystal Gem. Before that it was probscum.

(This description of "before, was probscum" sure doesn't seem to match RR's iso! I mean, I'm fucking quoting stuff showing how very-much-not-probscum RR was treating her.)

Was this slot 3p?
Subject: Mini 1730: Suikoden U-Pick GAME OVER

Brantz - Georg Prime

Vagrant (Allied Unification Army)

I don't expect you to forgive me.

He's got a hell of a history. In the Scarlet Moon Empire, he was 1 of the 6 Generals. In the Grasslands, he was an Ebony Moon Knight, and in Falena, he was a Royal Knight. He just threw it all away. If you are the last surviving member of the Allied Unification Army (Town), you will receive a winning victory as if you were a third-party survivor. You can even curse me if you want to. I can take it. You win the game when all threats to the Allied Unification Army has been defeated and at least one Allied Unification Army player is alive

Mod Note: I realize this may be up for debate in post-game, but I do not consider this role to be bastard ala 'mid-game alignment-change'.
This is due to the fact that the player is aware of their optional win condition and that the player's alignment will always be 'Town'.

[/spoiler]

Not related to DGB, but this shows that Reasonably Rational's ranting about farside's wincon is utter bullshit, justsayin'.

[mastin2]

Now ... Varsoon does like to change things up as a mod so I wouldn't go so far as to say Skybird automatically must be scum ... but I sure as hell am not going to assume town after what happened in the original game.

I have absolutely no feelings about Skybird at all, which is basically how I always feel about her posting.
I'll look at her ISO after I finish SC's, but she's generally fairly low impact on the game so I rarely actually ISO dive her.

Skybird ISO
So far, nothing jumps out as particularly noteworthy though. I haven't seen any pressure from her on those she's suspicious of to sort these questions, but I believe that's pretty standard for her. :-/

Skybird ISO(previous post included in this one)
Super minor town read overall. I see attempts to put things together when she's here, even if she's not doing it too much.
@KC: Do you believe that DGB is a scum traitor and she sincerely thought you were scum, and that as the traitor, she was willing to reveal herself in a PT which we were warned may be visible to unknown individuals in such a blatant fashion?

Town/unlikely to be aligned with scum: (important distinction)
Titus
Klingoncelt
mastin2
Yume
Farside22
Xkfyu(this is because of a realization I had about the potential meaning of some things he's said which I won't be revealing)
Firebringer <<bubbled by gems in a way that could have resulted in his death apparently, but did not. This implies certain things to me.
Skybird <<< PT with steven
killthestory <<<fake IC claim
So yeah.

The people above are unlynchable yo.

^This, in spite of earlier:

we used that same flawed logic to lose SU 1, except we had EVEN MORE REASON to think scum wouldn't possibly be given confirmation of Stevens identify than you do, and we were STILL wrong.
Don't be us. Don't close your mind to the possibility.

Evaluate Skybirds play on its own merit

.

...What changed?

Elaborate on Skybird please.

I didn't put any time into the game last night really, and your points require actual thought to digest. the assumption of guilt on the part of skybird for mechanical reasons seems short-sighted. Given that steven is a third party, there is an elegance to there being both a scum slot and a town slot given access to the slot, but there's obvious problems with the fact that such would be a near duplication of circumstances in the first SU, as well as the fact that skybird as town dosent actually have any mechanical arguments against it...it's just that there is an elegance argument in favor of scum+town access to steven.

(This Skybird defense is particularly important if my memory isn't betraying me and RR was the player saying Skybird was the scum being set up for the endgame.)

Just some food for thought.

[mastin2]

Practically half of foxbird iso includes mention of exams and illness.

@kraska: walk me through scum!shadow when you get back, using JUST shadows posts. The prior occupants of the slot claimed illness and exams to explain their lack of participation, so I'm not particularly interested in any argument based on their play/lack thereof. Shadows play has seemed to be...acceptable.

Yeah, I'm basing my appraisal wholly on shadow_step. Lurker scumreading lurkers is like meaningless. It's hypocritical but doesn't mean anything, and if anything should be expected. If someone is lurking and lazy/busy, who else can you actually make a case against without having to put time into the push? Seems to make sense to me that lurkers would naturally lean towards scumreading other lurkers, if for no other reasons than to distract from themselves and because the pushes can be made with minimal effort.

Yeah, that's the main problem I have with your case kraska. I asked you to make a case on shadow using JUST his iso, not foxbirds, and I don't believe you ever did so.
Now, making that case is going to be easier now, because as far as I can tell all he's done is respond to you tunneling him, and ignore my question about whether or not he's fully caught up, but stil, the bulk of the negative sentiment towards the slot comes from, as far as I can tell, Foxbirds exams+illness.

Pedit: I mean, realistically if he just said it's kinda like an IC, what exactly were you expecting? What he did is far from an IC (and pretty fucking anti-town tbh, since I don't actually see ANY positive effect from him telling scum that he's a VT), but I can't imagine what else he could have been referring to. "Like an IC" seems to mean publicly, mod confirmed reveal of something related to his role, and there's basically nothing role related that could be "revealed" which would confirm his alignment.

my scum pool is twie, shadow and maybe shiro
i wont even consider a farside wagon until i see these three flip or if farside proves, once again, to be antitown enuff to warrant a PL

Are you scum? Because you seem to be entirely disconnected from reality here.
And you want to see three flips before you'll even consider farside? So that's what... six more dead? So basically you are demanding that we go to what could be MYLO before you'll deign to consider lynching the scummiest player in the game? Seriously?

(kraska actually had two scum in there, and refused to attack farside.)

Who do you think is scum?

Without doing any analysis accounting for twies flip, Creature/Farside. I need to look at the wagons yesterday and see if there was an opportunity for farside to hammer creature and spare TWIE to determine whether such a team is even possible. After them are kraska/shadow/fuzzy, who all have weak reason to be considered more likely town than not.

Kraskas towniness comes from the the low likelihood of scum using her powers to neutralize their own event, an event which would have forced town to no lynch, and by her power not being used to enable skybirds strongman.

Shadows comes from the fact that a scum goon seems unlikely in a role madness game, and because skybird, who had an investigative ability, allying with them on D1 doesn't make sense if they were scum.

Fuzzys comes from his event usage, and is probably the weakest of the three, given that we now know at least one of the likely lynches on that day, if not for snarky, was definitely scum.
Shiro knew what I knew, that is, that a kill on MoI wouldn't work, so I can't see a scum team which included shiro taking a shot at MoI without the benefit of -4 stress. It's not impossible that they did I guess, because the information we had didn't say EXACTLY what would happen, just that MoI would be able to continue playing and maybe they hoped he'd be stumped or something, but it seems really unlikely.

(^One of these things is not like the others~)

There exists a scenario in which tomorrow could be LYLO or if the scum have an event left or some extra kill available, we could simply face game over. That's what we've been talking to Random about and trying to organize things in the game to prevent. I'll lay out what our plan is, which Random evaluated the totality of and the logic of and agreed we probably were right (in terms of worst case and how to avoid it):

1.) Farside is an unreliable narrator. She has been caught in one lie, at least, and all we actually know about her is her demonstrated abilities and her claims. So the first part of the plan was to force Farside to prove her personal win at 20 points claim as quickly as possible.
2.) Point one has some impact on Creature; however, I'm not sure why on earth Farside would LIE about who she blocked from killing her, so unless someone can provide a motive there, it's probably a legit guilty.
3.) I've spent a good deal of time going through a couple of ISOs today. One of them is Shadow_Step. I got Cerb to do some digging through it as well on his phone, and we both came to the same conclusion. Out of the pool of suspects, he's the one we think is most likely to flip scum after Creature.
4.) There has been some question about Fuzzy and people want to see him demonstrate his vig. Our plan ensures that nothing can stop his vig shot as long as we successfully ally. Given that our plan involves giving him a loaded gun that can't be stopped, we also planned to give him enough of an infodump and analysis of the situation that he would agree to leash to a consensus decision of whom to shoot

with Mastin, MoI and Random being the ones to decide

(Conftown, Crystal Gems ... should be obvious). We suggested Shadow already to Random to pass on to MoI tonight; however, he's been brought up now as a possible lynch or vig shot and so it doesn't make sense to keep that hidden any longer.

In short, we want to eliminate as many possible threats as possible expending the least possible resources. If anyone remains unconvinced, we already put together a plan to test her claim and to also test Fuzzy's claim in such a way that there is no out if the vig shot doesn't materialize.

I'm not really good at swaying people like Titus or Mastin, so I just ask that you please consider following the plan. I'm pretty sure that Creature or shadow lynched, Farside probably outed as a liar and lynched tomorrow (when we can ensure she cannot escape it) and a posited honest!fuzzy shooting Shadow/Creature is going to result in 2 scum flips and a 3P flip and hopefully game over, we win. There exists some reasons to posit an additional scum, which we discussed with Random and which he can relay to you tonight MoI.

There's so much about this post which is important. Placing Creature in the spotlight above others when it was proven farside's roleblock couldn't block the scum's faction kill, and her "ascetic"/BP COULD and that she got a point with nobody claiming to have targeted her and thus WAS the scum nightkill and therefore there was no mechanical reason to suspect Creature. Bringing up paranoia about lylo. Claiming farside as an unreliable narrator (when literally EVERY thing she claimed was proven true). The plan to have Fuzzy shoot Shadow_step, and then having that changed midway through. Rather critically, AGREEING TO HAVE FUZZY'S SHOT BE THE CONFTOWN CONSENSUS (MoI/mastina).
Reasonably Rational deviated from their own fucking plan. And also, they lied about not being good at swaying people. You need only look at the game results. They swayed Fuzzy to vig farside. They've swayed people to not vote them.

I'm sticking to our plan. Plus ... something tells me that Shadow isn't going to eat rope today. But ... he can't dodge a vig shot can he?

HE CAN IF YOU FUCKING TELL FUZZY TO HOLD HIS FIRE WHICH YOU

DID

!
This reasoning for not lynching Shadow sucked, too, but that's beside the point.

[mastin2]

Oh yeah. Let's not forget this.

Now as I see it, the scum pool is (most to least likely in my view): (Creature, TFL, Shiro, Grapes, S_S with Farside as a paranoia prospect).

Creature

- Ummm... really obvious.

TFL

- This should also be obvious I think.

Shiro

- Obviously skimming the game. Given that he missed us citing things Titus said and asking for him to confirm (and then bizarrely asked us to confirm something that isn't there), he's not really plugged in. That feels like demoralized scum (and could explain the MoI shot if Shiro is scum: if he missed the post outlining MoI's abilities or just skimmed it and missed the protection). It's also possible that it could just be lazy town assuming a win given our strong position.

Grapes

- I am tempted to put Grapes before Shiro. There's no real reason to read him either way, except for the Historical Fiction event which indicated he was targeted night one; however, there are two glaring failure points with that being used as a clear. Firstly, the event was from TWIE and TWIE chose which submitted actions to turn into truth, so it's possible that TWIE simply lied so it would look like Grapes was targeted by the scum team as an attempt to get him "cleared". The second failure point is that DGB had the ability to re-direct the scum kill. Then there's the fact that Grapes is literally coasting along at this point on this "clear" and my "gut" is bothering me a bit. (As a note, I'm not a "gut" person as I believe "gut" is just your brain telling you something is wrong but ... you get the point).

S_S

- I have a really hard time believing that the scum team were given a goon in this game. That seems absurd. Almost certainly he got stuck with the token vanilla townie slot in a role madness game. To be fair, though, that's literally the only reason to posit him as town.

S_S - I have a really hard time believing that the scum team were given a goon in this game. That seems absurd. Almost certainly he got stuck with the token vanilla townie slot in a role madness game.

That's a good point, it'd be too sad if roles are alignment-independent.

Of course roles aren't alignment specific, in the general sense. Here's the thing though: look at the power we have in the town and gems factions. Please argue how a goon makes sense when stacked against that power. I assume the point will then be clear.
That said, setup spec is not a really good reason to post someone as town, generally. There are unfortunately several players alive who have seemingly gone out of their way to avoid committing to anything at all, so if that's the only thing I have to work with, that's the only thing I can use to sort.
Feel differently? Want to point me to something you think I missed? That would actually be useful, as opposed to snarky pot shots that don't help at all.

[mastin2]

The point I'm getting at here, is.
Reasonably Rational has, consistently, across the whole fucking game. Been defending scum for shitty reasons. Only when said scum are given really fucking strong reasons to be scum does RR's opinion shift...and even then, RR has shown consistent hesitancy to actually lynch the scum. Reasonably Rational went from a weak townread on Skybird from play to having Skybird as unlynchable off of mechanics,

in spite of earlier advocating against doing exactly that

. Reasonably Rational's stance on DGB was all over the board. RR consistently defended TWIE, until well after the guilty on him and only voted TWIE when there was no other choice. (Their vote, prior to that, was on farside, and they had also considered voting Creature before TWIE.) When given the choice between Creature and Shadow, they selected Creature. They saved Shadow_step off of mechanical reasons and mechanical reasons alone: "I don't think there'd be a simple goon on the scumteam".

Reasonably Rational talks a lot. Does a lot of talking, here and there. But when you look at what those actions actually are accomplishing, what you see is that they have--consistently!--been furthering a scum agenda. Consistently, as of D2 at the very latest.

[mastin2]

(Fun fact, btw: of the 8 alive, my post count total, which is getting close to 600? Is only the fourth-highest. RR's got the highest number of those alive, but Titus--when combined with her hydra--still has the lead on them in spite of her having been dead for over 75 days. I have less posts than Firebringer and Not Chara, who both died over 80 days ago. But I can tell you, right here and now: in spite of me having far less posts than grapes, RR, or Almost50, I am far outpacing them in terms of posting right now because I'm apparently the only one who gives a shit about the game and is putting in the time and effort to actually show my homework.)

[mastin2]

mastin2/Yume/farside22/Obi-Wan Kenobi/Creature/SnarkySnowman/killthestory/randomidget/McMenno/Skybird/Almost50
Seraphim/CooLDoG/Firebringer/DrippingGoofball
TheWayItEnds/Xkfyu/Foxbird/Shiro/Klingoncelt
kraskaesque/Not Chara/Reasonably Rational/SirCakez

^As far as early readslists goes, this is a good one. SirCakez we allllllllll know about by now. I'm not even gonna bother showing you grapes's SirCakez posting. But in that second tier, you get TWIE and Foxbird. What would you call that tier? Null? Nullscum? Nulltown? It can't be town. And it's not at all unreasonable. At this stage, grapes's reads were what I'd call: pretty damn sharp.

mastin2/Yume/farside22/Obi-Wan Kenobi/McMenno/Almost50/Creature/SnarkySnowman/killthestory/randomidget/Skybird/Seraphim/Firebringer
DrippingGoofball/Foxbird/TheWayItEnds/Shiro
Xkfyu/CooLDoG/Klingoncelt/kraskaesque/Reasonably Rational/SirCakez/Not Chara

Okay so it's pretty safe to assume that they're in the null pile, but this is still pretty good.

Town - mastin2/Yume/farside22/Obi-Wan Kenobi/Almost50/Skybird/Creature/SnarkySnowman/killthestory/Seraphim/Firebringer
Meh - randomidget/DrippingGoofball/Foxbird/TheWayItEnds/Shiro/kraskaesque/CooLDoG
Scum - McMenno/Xkfyu/Reasonably Rational/Klingoncelt/SirCakez/Not Chara

Made more explicit ^here.

skybird might be scum guys

A bit later, yes, but still much more than can be said of RR's view on Skybird.

-snip-

this is like... a low-hanging fruit basket

So far my scummish pile is foxbird/shiro/klingon. They all feel like they're coasting and I haven't seen much from them that gives me any reason to think that they're trying solve the game at all. Klingon is the worst because she's made the most posts and they've all been noise outside of a few bad questions and a forced SR on fire which doesn't feel like something she believes in.
kraskaesque is still scum because the only thought process readily in their iso is that thing about mcmenno which a lot of people have already said is pretty black and white. like that's it as far as depth of thought goes with regards to scumhunting. which is strange because they have given a readslist (with all townreads ftr, which is already yuck) A line in here that I did kinda like at first glance; calling out RR and obi for assuming scum-motive to misinterpreting what "lone scum" meant, which sorta starts the car a bit as far as getting a sense that they're thinking about the game, but the thought doesn't really go anywhere.
Not chara's probscum like anyone who thinks that obi looks worse from the back nforth is either bad or scum. tvt is a believable stance. Just doesn't feel like how town goes about trying to get a read on someone. It's a boring reverse engineer of Almost's question that starts the dialogue at around the same place it already was when almost asked the question to the rest of the game.
Don't like RR much. They haven't made their presence known at all and I found the early push on firebringer bad. and an angle scum probably take tbh. The classic; you're wrong about something, paragraph about why you're wrong. And what exactly is firebringer supposed to explain here? It's literally just a difference of opinion on experience with how another player goes about the game. He's asking him to dig his own grave pretty much. Transitions into a full scumread with ever evolving shallow reasons. "You're trying to look town" "You're making up reasons" The conviction to the read feels too strong for what the conversation is about. A lot of talking about games that aren't this one. Like a whole shitton. Iso also has a good amount of pandering exessevily to obi/mastin. All around selfish-vibe going on here with cerb specifically. Shiro is only scumread. Shiro shows up to interact and response is the most previous quote. Not - "what's your reads" "what do you think about my read on you" - or etc. Just "pretend people are scumreading you for silly reasons" - end of conversation Obvious question that cerb would like answered but doesn't care what the answer is.
Sircakes has just been blatant scum all game and I'm down for a wagon there but I'd like some people to explain what RR's done that's town to them.

Here was an early push against Foxbird/Shadow_step. Also included all other pushes found in that post for context, for the sake of full disclosure.

dgb/farside are both good votes
lesser scumreads are kraska/shadow/rr
xk if im wrong on a couple or more of those
chara/shiro i could make a pretty compelling case either way

^Was an early Shadow pusher as well.

@Shadow

- What's your favorite flavor of rope?

^It's hard to get more explicit than this.

shadow/kraska could be scum/scum just based on how focused they are on being pointless towards one another for no reason.

(I mean working against grapes is that in the pair grapes voted kraska rather than Shadow, butstill...)

Shadow_Step - meh
Shiro - meh
Farside22 - good lynch
Reasonably Rational - wouldn't lynch today
Kraskaeaque - good lynch
TheFuzzylogic99 - wouldn't lynch today
Creature - wouldn't lynch today
randomidget - meh
TheWayItEnds - good lynch
Just completely off the top of the dome. I know twie looks pretty bad especially since he didn't vig I mean he might've been blocked but really it's getting more and more convenient.

^An earlyish supporter of TWIE's death.

Shadow having fuzzy as a top scumread in this gamestate is either refreshing or scum wanna read that iso first. Fuzzy's been off the radar a minute.

^More on Shadow.

Writing off shadow for being in an alliance with skybird is dumb because farside set those two up pregame. It isn't like they went out of their way to ally together.
Now if sky made an effort to try for someone different then maybe.

For me to be scum you have to assume scum were making ultra sub optimal plays with a powerful PR of theirs. Kind of like rolecopping your own buddy as scum.

Not even within the same ballpark. You're talking about private actions you can change at the drop of a hat vs. actions that need to be coordinated publicly within a short time frame. To supplement; I've seen skybird roleblock confirmed town as town before.

This actually makes sense. Farside keeps changing her story too many times. Do you think lynchproof+deathproof makes sense as a town role?

Ew. You think that makes as a scumrole? Did we also forget the 5-voter?

The people who I'm interested in looking into when I've got more time are shiro and shadow.

Yea I keep changing my mind. Creature's only really a good lynch in my mind because essentially the entire game thinks he's scum but calling out the thread on how forced the lynch actually is isn't odd it's the fact of the matter. I mean let's be fair people are trying to push it like there's a guilty on him when farside isn't even voting creature to my memory.
Also considering I was in the midst of explaining to you why shadows deathtunnel on him is fake; if shadow flips scum do you believe that would be a bus?

VOTE: Shadow
Magna explain why you sticking me in an alliance with 2 scumfucks.

Keep forgetting to ask; why are you townreading shadow?

If we lynch creature and he flips town, shoot shadow and use capslock super bold tags. If we lynch shadow and he flips scum, shoot shiro with capslock super bold tags.

A bit of a long one filled with quotes, so I'll just hyperlink to 11137 as another one grapes raised against Shadow.

Guys let's lynch shadow feels like a scumflip.

If I made a case on shadow_step would you consider voting him? You're literally calling him town because mastin thinks he's town.

We have like 3ish days. Maybe a creature flip wakes up half the game and we start curing some of this apathy but a mislynch is a mislynch. I'd really like for some people to refresh on shadow and shiro as well.
The number one reason why I think a lot of you are writing off shadow is because he would have to be a goon or w/e. But the utility of a goon that can confirm itself as goon is right in the name.

Doubt town would wake up after they mislynch someone tunneled since Day 5.

We will. Kraska lynch is what woke me up. That and taking a vacation from this game for a week or so. Shadow scum flip gives you a town-case, though. Which is about the same result except we don't waste a mislynch. I'm just terrible at explaining reads sometimes.

And if there's 5 twie's the last.

Okay and now we get to about where I started actually posting again but I'll reread that (probably skim the farside vs. rr stuff) but my vote is most likely going on TWIE. I'm ISOing him right now and he doesn't mention shit about shooting me at all so someone please direct me where the talks of that came from.

Twie isn't a bad lynch.

VOTE: TWIE

twie/kraska/shiro
That's where I want the votes.

I'd love a Shiro lynch and see that flip scum after everything from day 2, but after snarky I'm twice shy about any confidence in it.

Then vote twie.
I was wrong on snarky too for a while he's tough to read wouldn't beat yourself up about it.
Shiro hasn't done anything town in over a month.

I don't know I feel like I'd much rather lynch the ones who've ceased all gamesolving.
shiro/kraska/twie
Like why make it more difficult than it needs to be.

vote: farside

i hate you guys for making me break my not casting a vote streak

Wow you literally haven't voted at all? This is why we always snipe the not voting seats.

Need more?

3) Is DGB one of your buddies?

(Okay so admittedly this was on D1.)

dgb/farside are both good votes

Which brings us back to the game needing flips. Like, DGB lynch wouldn't get any argument from me. Farside either really; but that's primarily because I'm always skeptical of the age-old "i can win with town"
Meh, just kinda wish we were "caught up" I guess is the best phrase I can think of.

VOTE: DGB

And this is just the non-SirCakez stuff which can be found with a quick control-F of grapes's iso.

It is no exaggeration to say he has in fact pushed all the scum in the game. Sometimes for crazy reasons. Sometimes not as primary pushes. But always there, pushing scum.

[mastin2]

Like, grapes's iso is the polar opposite of Reasonably Rational's. grapes has been acting a lot like me in a game: pushing strong at times, being uncertain at others. Being utterly apathetic, lost, and confused at some times, being absolutely confident at others. Pushing some crappy logic at some points, and at other points being ridiculously on-point. Raising good points a plenty, and not so good points. Naming plenty of scum players as scum, but also naming plenty of town players as scum. Occasionally (but not often) seeing a scum player as town, but at a later point reevaluating and deciding that initial assumption could be wrong, then transitioning to scumreading the scum. This pattern is consistent throughout the whole game. Seeing scum as neutral, then when looking at them, continuing to move them down. While grapes had a particular confirmation bias (namely, kraskaesque), grapes's reads aside from that never stopped improving. And grapes honed in and refined those reads, attacking scum at key points, key parts, of the game.

grapes's iso is that of a town player who doesn't have the perfect picture, so has some scummy parts, yes. grapes, not knowing the scumteam, is imperfect, and thus made mistakes. But grapes's posts haven't been pushing a scum agenda. Where in grapes's posting is grapes pushing for a scum win? Where was grapes's plan in all of the above? What was grapes doing that entire time? Faking it all and bussing scumbuddies for the lulz? Because grapes sure as fuck wasn't bussing them for the towncred. grapes hasn't been trying to say how town he is. grapes has just been doing his own thing.

[mastin2]

Magna's V/LA should be ending soon.
And I'm really hoping that he shows some semblance of sanity here and realizes that,

yes

, I am right. Yes, I am raising good points. And, yes. The people who are saying I am wrong aren't saying why I am wrong, or when they do, are taking a small part of my argument and strawmanning it to be a representation of the whole thing. "Oh that one part of your argument is wrong, so therefore the whole thing must be wrong." That's what I'm dealing with, and right now I'm hoping, PRAYING, MoI has the capability to read what I have written.

YES, I know it's long. Yes, I know it's a lot of quotes, and it's a lot of walls, and it's a lot of text. But I'm trying everything, here. Shorter posts. Longer ones. Anything to get someone to actually listen. REALLY listen. Not pretend to listen. Not say they are listening, and then do fuckall about it. To truly listen to what I am saying. I've raised a lot of points. A LOT of points. Most of them have gone unchallenged. Like, not a few of them. Literally the vast majority of them haven't been questioned, haven't been touched.

Fuck!
I'd be perfectly content with Magna coming in and questioning me on aspects of my case!
I'd even be okay with MoI coming in here and, bit by bit, pointing out what he thinks I'm wrong about, what he disagrees on.
I mean. I'd be disappointed he's not siding with me when I know I'm right. But at least he'd have taken effort to show why he's not siding me. At least he would be able to show why he thinks I am wrong. (Even though I'm not.)

I really don't know how much more I can show you.
I am firmly against the idea of there being two scum left. One, that is propaganda, paranoia, planted in your brains by Reasonably Rational, who have flat-out admitted as such. Two, it goes against the flavor. Three, it goes against setup balance. Four, the mechanics don't fit. Five, the players who would be this alleged second scum don't actually fit as the second scum. And six, as an extension of that...there just isn't the interactions between the possible scum to suggest that there is more than one alive.

I am firmly in the belief that grapes's attitude has consistently shown itself to be town.
I am firmly of the belief that Reasonably Rational has propagated a scum agenda with their actions.
I've shown you snapshots of grapes's iso which are good for interactions, but aside from that, I can also show you plenty of things grapes has said which don't feel fake.
I've shown you snapshots of RR's iso which are godawful for interactions, but aside from that, I have also shown you plenty of stuff from their iso which is bad and even contradictory at times, something which runs contrary to their fundamental nature when they are town. (They even scumhunt by consistency! And yet, RR has been so fucking inconsistent this game.)

Fuck, you need look no further than what each player is doing right now.
Grapes? "I know I am town. I recognize that people think I am scum, but I'm not. And you know who is? These people, here's why. You need to listen to me. Shut the fuck up, I don't care what you think about me, trust me these people are scum. When I am gone, you NEED to follow me on this. I know they are." Stubbornness. Pushing, regardless of rhyme or reason.
Almost50? "I know I am town. Go ahead and lynch me. grapes is scum, and I don't give a damn about anything else. I'm not budging. So go ahead and lynch me for this. I encourage it!" Stubbornness. Pushing, regardless of rhyme or reason.
Fuzzy? "I know I am town. That is all I know. I have ideas. I have thoughts. I am sharing with you my thoughts. I still think it possible these people are scum. And this is what I am doing with these thoughts." Pushing, regardless of rhyme or reason. With some stubbornness involved, albeit not as obvious.

Basically the only two not doing this are Shiro and RR, but Shiro!scum requires two scum. And what of RR?
"Hey. mastina is wrong. No, seriously. mastina is wrong. This is why mastina is wrong. Hey, look at how town we are! Yes, this proves mastina is wrong, because we are town. Oh and yeah, there are more than one scum. Did we mention mastina is wrong, and that we are town? Because yeah we are town. And mastina is wrong."

One of these things is not like the others.