Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Kairal]

For what it's worth I think you are the least scummy of the three. I'd prefer to start with culted and then see where that goes.

[Kairal]

Mini and flubber argument looks to be fueled by a playstyle disagreement and personality clash more than anything and they're both actually making okay points at the same time while not caring very much how their pushes come off to everyone else. Think this is Tvt.

@Io

I realize a lot of people called you out on this but was there anything in particular from kairal's post on aj you resonated with that made you develop a scumread there?

@Kairal

When did your scumread on newman develop specifically?

Io is climbing in my scumreads.

k

Probably a scum reaction.

MDS

: Specifically can you quote my "bad logic" that I've "doubled down on"?

Meh, I was kinda iffy on massive earlier from some stuff on cloud that looked like cogdis (like I still find it strange how you can discredit someone saying they townslipped in one post and then tell them people taking issue with the slip isn't a reason to townread them in the next.) Like, he brushed it off as a handslap which eh? Kinda bad but the thought process behind those posts made more sense when he explained his townread later on and I'm not gonna act like I've always kept my reads easily traceable regardless of alignment.

But THIS shit is typical scumflail and massive's been playing since 03 he should know that nothing productive is gonna come from arguments like this.

My concern is not for whether you and CK are the same alignment, MDS, nor for whether the mod was correct in replacing CK for his actions. My concern is for the amount of time and effort you put into getting people to NOT LOOK AT IT, to ignore it, to claim it's NAI, and THAT is what makes me say "the lady doth protest too much." Which is, in all honesty, what "protest" MEANS. And how, of course, me "doubling down" has no actual link to factual in-thread posts. You tried. You failed.

I just don't see how MDS is still running this town.

Kinda torn though because these gut decently real.

Well its blatantly obvious to me who scum is, ill give you a hint, its flubber. He doesnt take much interest in the game until he feels he can strike at an opportune time and argue his way into getting a player lynched. He also, like Massive, doesnt really explain much. He also is just pointing fingers at MDS and pushing the points she is making aside. Its sort of like when you argue with your parents and they say "That doesnt matter, listen to me, i am the parent" he is just deflecting what she says with minimal effort.

I'm sad that nobody wanted to vote this with me.

I was typing when he posted his last few posts that defend himself a little more, it all looks very suspect to me still but not vote warranting.

What about it was suspect?

scummyness

Scumpost.

@mod

An actual votecount instead of just saying "VC" would be great. : )

Rather a newman lynch > massive at the moment. With massive he's got a track record of bonking heads with mds so the benefit of the doubt that he's just tunneled and omgusing is there and despite how bad the push is as a whole I can kinda see the where he's coming from on the 'protest too much' stuff if I squint.

And on the other hand, like grey said, newmans mds vote is just pure opportunism.

My other preferences are jin and io; more enthusiastic about jin. Also kinda don't think these two are scum together.

Wouldn't end the day without content from IAMI.

In these posts Culted calls out massive but immediately backtracks. Also there are a lot of bad reads going around but here we see that Culted wants to lynch Io, Jin and Newman. All now confirmed to be town. Actually a large amount of Culted's Iso is tunneling on Jin.

[I Am Innocent]

6 - Io: Dierfire, MiniDeathStar, Aj The Epic, HellloooNewman, -Grey-,

I Am Innocent, culted

Secret Agent Jin (6)

culted , I Am Innocent

, Flubbernugget , massive , -Grey- , Kairal LYNCH!

Either we were all absolutely totally wrong as town and scum didn't even need to wagon these people (and make themselves look bad), or scum decided to sponsor them a little bit.

Do you notice a certain pattern here?

Mafia theory time, regarding this and the 'who didn't believe the Newman claim' patterns you are pointing out.

Do scum usually vote together like I think you are trying to hint with me and culted?

Do scum usually like to be on all the town wagons? (Look at DGBs scumputer and it shows a greater correlation to being scum for players on some town wagons and off other town wagons)

Scum would have known Newman was town, so they would have likely believed his claim. So how would scum act? Once again I think you throw out patterns and assume 1, maybe 2 did not believe him and 1, maybe 2 scum did believe him. (Yes this assumes 3 scum total) like voting, scum are usually pretty careful to try to mix it up and blend in, not go all united together as you are hinting.

I did not like these posts by mini at all, but iso'ing her again I still think she is town. Misguided on me yeah but still prob town none the less.

Like I said I still want to check some voting histories and would like to ISO a few players if not all. Two players that I have not suspected much this game have recently caught my eye, tho one dropped a very strong early D1 town tell that is usually right :-/

More to come.

For massive, the player that recently caught my eye that also dropped a huge town tell is kairal. Her posts today have been giving me scum vibes but that town tell is pretty strong.

The other player is AJ. I believe this is our third game together and the fact I have gotten zero suspicion from him despite my terrible reads is causing me some serious concerns. AJ any reason you have not only not suspected me, but also defended me this game? I feel like our other games together you were always after me.

[I Am Innocent]

For what it's worth I think you are the least scummy of the three. I'd prefer to start with culted and then see where that goes.

Kairal do you think mini and shadow could be scummates? If not why?

[I Am Innocent]

Dierfire, top 3 scum reads please?

[Kairal]

They could be I suppose. I haven't been reading Mini as scum. Day 1 at least she was pretty active and her reads felt genuine to me. They also lined up with mine quite a lot. Of course now that we know most of the top scum reads Day 1 were town that counts for less than it did. She's also been a lot less active- however she's also been on holiday so that's fair enough.

I actually considered suggesting to Shadow that he should replace out if he's town because he seemed so uninterested in the game. The fact that he did so on his own suggests to me that he's not a low lying scum player.

I'm not really sure what to make of the Mini Cloud argument day 1. I'm tempted to say that scum wouldn't let an argument get that bad but I have actually seen a game where two scum got into such a heated argument that one of them volountarily replaced out so in the end I'm inclined to say it's NAI.

Overall I've got a weak town lean on Mini and I'm waiting on Shadow's replacement before I make any new judgements there. I don't think it's impossible they're a scum team but I'm looking at other people first.

[Kairal]

Anyway what are your thoughts on culted and flubber? Those are the two that seem best for today's lynch to me

[Kairal]

I don't know that I've talked about Flubber properly today actually.

Firstly I think massive's argument is absolute poop. It comes from an alternate dimension where massive's day 1 play was clearly town and maybe in that dimension it works as an argument. In this dimensions where he was extremely scummy all of day 1 it's total rubbish. Maybe the reason he got to 5 votes is because scum were pushing it... or maybe it's because he was super suspicious.

That said Flubber is pretty suspicious in general. When I was scum last game I fixated on a scum read the whole time and Flubber's certainty that we should lynch massive sort of feels similar. He also spent a good deal of Day 1 throwing suspicion on Jin like Culted.

[Kairal]

Ok I changed position a lot over this last page or so. I think if massive is scum culted must be his partner. However I can also see the possibility on a flubber, culted scum team. I feel like they were the two key instruments of the Jin lynch (and yeah I'm mad I fell for it) and yet vary rarely spoke to each other about it, despite both harping on Jin for much of Day 1.

The common element here is culted so he's my vote.

VOTE: culted

[Kairal]

Also we're after the halfway point. People need to start getting their wagons in gear if we're gonna get a lynch in time.

[Aj The Epic]

The other player is AJ. I believe this is our third game together and the fact I have gotten zero suspicion from him despite my terrible reads is causing me some serious concerns. AJ any reason you have not only not suspected me, but also defended me this game? I feel like our other games together you were always after me.

So I know I've been in more than 2 with you, but I only specifically remember a game where you claimed Cop in Mastins' game and got two days more than you ever should've as scum. Other than that, you're normally kinda lurking town. In the first game, I was not only lost but knew right away that you were scum on the first cop claim. You're not really the kind of player I fret about reading. Titus, Pisskop, Ms Marangal and Nacho are the only people I really don't ever feel confident reading.

Lest I remind you that everyone in this game has terrible reads or unproven reads. As of right now, there's no middle ground. And I play by hunting motivations, seeing WHY someone would do something rather than what they've done.

[Dierfire]

My time is limited tonight, but I'll do what I can quickly.

I saw some analysis on 1.07, and I have thoughts. That VC is quoted below (with my additions for flipped players).

Vote Count 1.07

1 -

Io

: Dierfire
0 - Dierfire:
0 -

HellloooNewman

:
2 - MiniDeathStar: Shadow_Step, massive
0 - Kairal:
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
1 -

Secret Agent Jin

: culted
1 - Shadow_Step:

HellloooNewman

1 -

-Grey-

: I Am Innocent
0 - culted:
5 - massive: Flubbernugget, MiniDeathStar,

-Grey-

,

Secret Agent Jin

, Kairal
1 - Aj The Epic:

Io

0 -No Lynch:
Not voting: Aj The Epic

@massive

You said that you find it unlikely that you'd reach five votes with only Town players voting for you. You also said that MiniDeathStar is Town. Therefore you conclude that Kairal and Flubbernugget are good candidates for Mafia. To me, the assumption that MiniDeathStar is Town seems a pretty major one for the case! My confidence in reading MiniDeathStar as Town has been waning since D1. Do you have a reason that I should be more confident?

@Kairal

At some point you mentioned that you didn't see an obvious effort to shift the lynch from massive, but given that Io and HellloooNewman were Town, what would such an effort have looked like that you don't see there?

[Dierfire]

Dierfire, top 3 scum reads please?

I'd say massive, Flubbernugget, and...MiniDeathStar, maybe? The full list would look like this:

TOWN
---
Aj The Epic, I Am Innocent, CloudKicker* (need to follow through on reading Shadow_step more carefully as discussed with Aj The Epic)
---
Kairal, culted, MiniDeathStar
---
Flubbernugget, massive
---
MAFIA

I can flesh those out more later, but in brief: I think that 1025 from massive indicates a conclusion that was formed before the evidence (that post questions Kairal but includes a vote for Flubbernugget, and I don't see a reason why the argument doesn't apply to MiniDeathStar).

I'll have a much more thorough response within 48 hours.

[MiniDeathStar]

@Gamma:

Please replace me. I won't be able to play until the 9th of January.

[massive]

VOTE: Kairal

I'm unlikely to make it through N4 so here it is: I'm the even cop. Checked MDS last night, she's town. I really figured someone would have picked up on that and not made me spell it out - I thought it was AJ early on, but then it was clear he hadn't from 1954.

I've been run up so many times on Day 1 that I know what that wagon composition is. It's too easy for scum to push on something NAI (usually it's my postcount, but this time it was "explaining my vote") that they look at me as an easy mislynch. I just happen to be a little more sturdy than a D1 mislynch ... most of the time. But yeah, I was purposefully needling Kairal to see how deep he'd bite, plus also trying to survive to now to get my likely only investigation through. And personally I think he's bit a little too deep.

IAI I trust you to some extent, so do you want to talk about this towntell you saw? I saw something D1 but now I want to go back and look and see how legit it really was.

[Gamma Emerald]

Finding replacements for MiniDeathStar and Shadow_Step.

[I Am Innocent]

VOTE: Kairal

I'm unlikely to make it through N4 so here it is: I'm the even cop. Checked MDS last night, she's town. I really figured someone would have picked up on that and not made me spell it out - I thought it was AJ early on, but then it was clear he hadn't from 1954.

I've been run up so many times on Day 1 that I know what that wagon composition is. It's too easy for scum to push on something NAI (usually it's my postcount, but this time it was "explaining my vote") that they look at me as an easy mislynch. I just happen to be a little more sturdy than a D1 mislynch ... most of the time. But yeah, I was purposefully needling Kairal to see how deep he'd bite, plus also trying to survive to now to get my likely only investigation through. And personally I think he's bit a little too deep.

IAI I trust you to some extent, so do you want to talk about this towntell you saw? I saw something D1 but now I want to go back and look and see how legit it really was.

I feel this claim actually clears three people. I don't see how scum Cloudkicker gets forced replaced for playing against his win con for leaving a vote on town Mini.

Town: Massive, Mini, Shadow/Cloudkicker

As for early game tells, you know I don't disclose those cause then players change playing styles around me and stop leaving tells or giving false tells. Devalues the tell itself.

I will say it was the same tell that Hoopla had this last game that I called out, and despite Hoopla playing very scummy, held true that she was town:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8464111

(Just an FYI on this, I lied about the other two town tells, those were actually my mason partners lol)

I do want to look at the interactions of the other 5 players not listed above and not myself. See if I can find a threesome that makes sense as scum together. But prob the scum is in {Flubber, AJ, Dierfire, and culted}. Possibly Kairal too, but giving weight to that tell so less likely.

[I Am Innocent]

Dierfire, top 3 scum reads please?

I'd say massive, Flubbernugget, and...MiniDeathStar, maybe? The full list would look like this:

TOWN
---
Aj The Epic, I Am Innocent, CloudKicker* (need to follow through on reading Shadow_step more carefully as discussed with Aj The Epic)
---
Kairal, culted, MiniDeathStar
---
Flubbernugget, massive
---
MAFIA

I can flesh those out more later, but in brief: I think that 1025 from massive indicates a conclusion that was formed before the evidence (that post questions Kairal but includes a vote for Flubbernugget, and I don't see a reason why the argument doesn't apply to MiniDeathStar).

I'll have a much more thorough response within 48 hours.

If Dierfire is scum, I'm guessing one of Kairal/culted is a teammate, and the other buried in his town reads (AJ?). Would he stick scummate Flubber as a teammate, less likely imo.

[I Am Innocent]

@culted, why did you hammer Io before giving her a chance to claim?

I didn't. If you're a role and someone declares intent and you don't claim you're either vt or scum silly!

Need more from Dierfire. So far two votes, Cloudkicker/Shadows slot (who I read town) and Io. 21 posts between him and his predecessor.

I haven't hated his content when he does post, though. And this is gonna sound weird but he's the only one who saw what I was trying to do during mini and cloud's early argument.

Was my subtle attempting at sidelining what I thought was tvt pretty obvious and something scum pick up on? Unbiased opinion would help.

Yes I suppose I can ask why. Given that you know I'm going to do so why not just save us all time? Can everyone who blankvoted recently or in future please do not and instead explain your vote.

There's certainly value to holding back reasoning that you're not accounting for, though! You don't want to let scum know why you're scumreading them, at least not right away. You also may want to see if other town are picking up what you're picking up. : )

Alright I can come back to massive later. I was about to lynch Cloud yesterday when he got replaced out and Shadow has basically slipped under the radar. I read through Io's ISO and either I missed it or she never really made a push on IamI - why are Shadow and Mini suddenly pointing fingers there?

VOTE: Shadow

I don't like the first line.
The last line seems like a throwaway question.

I understand why their suspicion strikes you as sudden. But why is sudden interesting in this particular instance, kai?

I am neither scum or scum. I am Jin, master townie. Anyways, if i had a gun to my head and i had to lay down a vote i would vote massive from going off of yesterday but i was wrong about Newman and IO, so maybe i am not 100% right all the time. About these votes on me, i dont seem to see a case, am i just missing it?

VOTE: Saj

I'd have voted him for that post too!

Mini's 900

Calls jin lynchbait like 5 times and then tosses shade on him for 'copying her reads' in the same post.
One that doesn't make sense and is hedgy as all get out.
Two you basically saw'd flubber for voting jin just because jin has a lynchbait rep.

Terrible look considering that this was when momentum started to shift pretty strongly against jin; feels like trying for towncred on a mislynch but not wanting to kill the traction at the same time.

Or maybe not try for towncred (depending on what kind of player scum!mini is) because that post isn't gonna look

that

good on a townflip as much as other posts would have.
But using jin as leverage while still opening the idea up for others to see him hang is more like it and is actually kinda worse now that I'm thinking about it.

Reaction test.

I've developed no reads in this games by interacting with other players.
I thought town was going in the correct direction so I just sheeped my town reads basically, the Hello flip just baffled me. Even the way the claimed I couldn't believe it at all. It seemed like it was a last ditch attempt at drawing a CC.
Been pretty crap by my own standards, so I wanted to see how he reacts and how other do to it.

VOTE: Shadow

No official top 3 for the day I found, but subtle attacks on kairal and mini, vote to Shadow. No mention of {AJ, Flubber, or Dierfire}

[Gamma Emerald]

Naomi-Tan replaces Shadow_Step!

[I Am Innocent]

Two votes all game. Massive in post 10 and now Massive here. I need more than this. Based on the flips, who else do you think is scum with Massive?

Both of the flips were lynchbait so I can't see much to analyze from it.

I think MDS Saj and massive are scum. Why should the flips discredit that?

READS FROM PREVIOUS DAY....been mostly massive and mini suspicion this day. Some back and forth with Dierfire, need to reread outside of iso to see if it's staged scum drama or one of them is likely town.

[I Am Innocent]

The other player is AJ. I believe this is our third game together and the fact I have gotten zero suspicion from him despite my terrible reads is causing me some serious concerns. AJ any reason you have not only not suspected me, but also defended me this game? I feel like our other games together you were always after me.

So I know I've been in more than 2 with you, but I only specifically remember a game where you claimed Cop in Mastins' game and got two days more than you ever should've as scum. Other than that, you're normally kinda lurking town. In the first game, I was not only lost but knew right away that you were scum on the first cop claim. You're not really the kind of player I fret about reading. Titus, Pisskop, Ms Marangal and Nacho are the only people I really don't ever feel confident reading.

Lest I remind you that everyone in this game has terrible reads or unproven reads. As of right now, there's no middle ground. And I play by hunting motivations, seeing WHY someone would do something rather than what they've done.

Oh didn't know you were in that game. Come on, my play was friggin great. The "COP" crumb, which lined up with the fake gunsmith claim on me. Yeah the second "Fake Guilty" I had should have never gone thru, but up thru the first, that was believable.

I was thinking more along the lines of the game where I was scum vig, but claimed town vig. I thought you were after me hard that game Day 1.

[I Am Innocent]

So in these kind of situations, it becomes dangerous for the town to just continue using past philosophy. We've effectively had three lynches (I'm considering Newman a lynch protected by a role claim) and missed on all three. Obviously we're not thinking this through right.

IaI, you questioned us all on our want to lynch Dierfire. Outside of Ehable, is there any specific reason? Also, with the Jin vote the only thing I saw in your ISO was that you weren't happy with his joke vote (Which Grey did the post prior). Was it just second on the list/best remaining option?

FWIW I completely agree with Massive that the hammer by Kairal did NOT need to happen, but I've been townreading Kairal as essentially a confirmed town member.

Not feeling a massive lynch anymore. Especially now that it seems like it'd be too easy to push, this is exactly where I'd warn against seeing a wagon form unless we have good reason. Think I'd prefer to look around CK's slot again as Shadowstep's done literally nothing with it since replacing in. We need to hear more from culted because my initial town read is basically stale on that slot (Culted almost didn't post yesterday).

I think looking towards Dier (depending on IaI's response)/Flubber/Shadow area might be best for today. Looking towards, not wagoning. We have two weeks, apathy aside we should burn a decent portion of it.

Hmmm, interesting. Doubt the scum team is AJ/Dier/Flubber.

[I Am Innocent]

Yeah lynching Jin was a mistake. Sorry guys. That said he was reasonably suspicious for quite a long time. He frequently had posts that scolded people for doing exactly what he was doing, (i.e. softly casting suspicion on people without voting on them, or talking about a very small number of people). I should have left it longer but I got impatient.

Guess I should slow down a bit. Anyway I'm still feeling pretty good about Mini, AJ and Dier. I think massive is too obvious. We went down that path with Newman and Io already.

I'd also like to hear more from Shadow. Culted and Flubber were the two main Jin pushers so I guess I'm a bit suspicious there too. Although I thought he was suspicious too so not sure how noteworthy it is.

For posterity, Shadow/Culted/Flubber

[I Am Innocent]

Kind of leaning towards culted.