STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[MagnaofIllusion]

We were, I'm just saying that the history of scum no kills doesn't mean a lot when he couldn't have empowered kills except on some special occasions. Though, now that I think about it, mechanically there's weak evidence that he's not scum because of the existing scum strongmen+his empowering happening at the opposite end of the stress meter. So, your point does have some degree of merit, just not because of the missing kills...unless I'm misunderstanding the nature of your argument?

Yes, only on special occasions is correct. But clearly the fact that on the first occasion (Finale 1, Day / Night 4) he chose to ally with me and grapes (although it only turned out to be me due to circumstances). So unless you buy that both grapes and Almost are scum together that move makes little sense if he is scum as he should be aware that Skybird stands a chance of being killed. At the very least he should have included Shadow in that grouping to give his otherwise Vanilla scum partner a strongman kill.

I could go back and look at all the stress counts to see if any other Nights would qualify if needed. But I think the general point stands. Furthermore Almost had no reason to forgo a Nightkill last Night.

[grapes]

For like the billionth time. Analyzing who allied with who is dumb. They aren't actions you can just 'change' whenever the fuck you want and there are a number of things that restrict your options.

In a world where fuzzy is town, scum killing last night confirms fuzzy as town.

Almost50 is a threat to Earth.

[grapes]

And now let me ask you all this: Do you think it was a coincidence that grapes wanted to ally with me (and MoI) on Season Finale 1, and he is now allied with Mastina on Season Finale 2, given our abilities and the time the scum team learned about them? (Obviously mine was revealed to them on E1, while Mastina's may have not been until Shadow allied with her). Food for thought.

Wasn't aware of anything about your role when I asked for an alliance. I just changed up what I thought was right based on people's reads or whatever in the heat of the moment because there was a quick-hammer and your third was recently day-vig'd. I had no knowledge of mastin's role either and even if I did; farside was the one who suggested our pairing.

Mastin has told you this already.

[grapes]

You seem to have as a basic premise that the scum team was informed and felt obligated to just walk into the trap they knew about, and that seems like a shaky premise to me.

Yea I'm not gonna break through here.

Isn't even pretending to read my posts.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In a world where fuzzy is town, scum killing last night confirms fuzzy as town.

If this really was the case scum could have just confirmed he was Town by, you know, shooting him.

Probably the much smarter option given the raw number of kills they have missed before yesterday.

But that absolutely hasn't crossed into your thought process, has it?

[Reasonably Rational]

You seem to have as a basic premise that the scum team was informed and felt obligated to just walk into the trap they knew about, and that seems like a shaky premise to me.

Yea I'm not gonna break through here.

Isn't even pretending to read my posts.

Work with me here grapes. Tell me what exactly drixx said here that isn't true??

You ARE taking it as a fact that putting a member of the scum team DIRECTLY into the crosshairs would be viewed as better than shooting Xk or otherwise avoiding the alliance(which, btw, only makes those XK told about his power suspicious(which doesn't include the gems if they shoot him, since he couldn't join them until AFTER episode 2), in the UNLIKELY event that anyone even notices.

From my perspective, the twin wings slot was nearly guaranteed to be lynched at some point, due to lack of contribution up to that point. How is increasing that lynch chance from 90% to 95% worse than taking skybird from a 0% chance of death to a nonzero chance? Yes, there was a SMALL imo chance that A50 would get a tiny bit of attention once twinwings flipped as scum AND town saw XK's role, but the chance of that suspicion even developing waa even less likely than Xk shooting skybird.

@MoI: Can you PLEASE tell Mastin that?????? I said it as just the simplest reason why her no kill arguments don't make sense, and she hand waved it away.

-Cerb

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MoI: Can you PLEASE tell Mastin that?????? I said it as just the simplest reason why her no kill arguments don't make sense, and she hand waved it away.

If mastin was inclined to listen to anyone she would have at least considered it.

I think she's on cruise control just waiting out the day hoping that others are less stubborn and will just "give in" to her wishes.

[Almost50]

Two more things (that are NOT conclusive, but are worth noting IMHO):

1- grapes has grown passionate with the use of the term "threat to Earth" rather than scum or rubies or whatever other applicable terms. This new found fondness of repeatedly using this specific term is telling me he wants to assert indirectly he knows what the wordings of the Town win con is. Unfortunately, we've already had many Town flips and even if not the scum themselves would know they are "Threats to Earth" as proven by their flipped roles too. It's a psychological trick, but I think he got himself trapped into it instead.

2- grapes keeps insinuating alliances analysis means nothing and that he was practically forced or had no choice everytime he joined one. This -to me- is an attempt to deny responsibility for his own actions. Now even if someone was willing to buy that "I had no choice and I didn't think it through" stuff it only means grapes didn't care who he allied with and what benefits his alliance granted his allies. That's reckless play at best and -indeed- scummy play on any given day. The problem is I give grapes much more credit than this. I neither think he's reckless nor dumb, thus I'm not buying one bit of it being the case.

[grapes]

But that absolutely hasn't crossed into your thought process, has it?

It has.

And it didn't take.

What would be a good kill for scum at this point? And why bother when that confirms lynchbait as town and also clears me as town now that I'm thinking about it because almost regardless of alignment can't lie about his track on me which rr and fuzzy both knew about.

And what's more if fuzzy's a vig he's shooting bulletproof obvtown for sure anyway.

Work with me here grapes. Tell me what exactly drixx said here that isn't true??

For starters the only one here taking something for fact is you and almost50. The fact that the other of you is town and it's just become apparent to me over time which of you is more likely to get ahead as town regardless of how much scum profit from it.

You aren't looking at both sides.

1- grapes has grown passionate with the use of the term "threat to Earth"

I have.

Wanna know why? It sends a stronger message.

1grapes keeps insinuating alliances analysis means nothing

No.

I'm insinuating that we need to be evaluating them differently.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Can anyone tell me why the Gems are towns besides they are masons bc that seems to be the main claim to towndom

@MOI
I never said that they never shot at you night 5, I do find it odd that three conf town are alive at this point....... I am confused maybe you can help me.
I seem to understand you set off the event night 5...... tell me if I am wrong on this. If I understand right you set off the event that prevented the kill and you also was the one targeted, Am I correct on this also,
Can you tell me hoe you knew you were targeted. I am really trying to figure this all out, Was the event automatic set off when you were targeted. As I said I trying to figure this out. Please give all the info you can without putting any info that would put you in danger

Random just seem to be skating by on the fact that he is a Gem..... I know he is a low energy player. I get that but honestly I have not seen anything outside of him being mason to point he is town. Not even saying he is necessarily scum but honestly I have very little that points to him being town. Just seems like everyone is giving him a free pass and that's frustrating!!!!!!! if he was not a mason he would get more heat,,

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Rereading Grapes and RR posts

[TheFuzzylogic99]

hmm

if I was scum than

Nght5- shot at MOI ( if I understand him right) but was RB
Night 6-Shot at Far?
Night7 Was Rb by Event
Night 8- Vigged Far bc of my strongman ability

if RR was scum
Night 5- Shot Moi ( if I understand correctly) but was RB
Night 6- Shot at Far?
Night 7- RB by event
Night 8- Did not shoot but use me to vig Far

if Grapes was scum
Night 5- shot at MOI ( if I understand him right) but was RB
Night 6- Shot at Far
Night7- RB by event
Night 8 - did not shoot

if almost was scum
Night 5 shot at MOI ( if I understand him right) but was RB
Night6- Shot at far?
Night7-RB by event
Night8- Did not shoot but tried to get me to kill Far

If Moi was scum
Night5- is lying about being shot at
Night6- Shot Far?
Night7- RB by Event
Night RB by event

if Random was scum
Night5- shot MOI
Night6- Shot far
Night7- RB by Event
Night 8- RB by event

---------------------------------------------
Mastin as scum( this is pretty ridiculous but why Not)
Bight- Shot at MOI but was RB
Night6- Shot at Far
Night7- RB by Event
Night 8- did not shoot

[TheFuzzylogic99]

if Random was scum
Night5- shot MOI( if I understand right) but was RB
Night6- Shot far?
Night7- RB by Event
Night 8- RB by event

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Mastin as scum( this is pretty ridiculous but why Not)
Bight- Shot at MOI but was RB
Night6- Shot at Far?
Night7- RB by Event
Night 8- did not shoot

[mastin2]

1. Grapes is Town as you suggest.
2. Grapes is the only character remaining who makes any sense as Leftover who can join / help the Mafia.
3. Based on 2 that there is only 1 scum remaining.
If you disagree with these premises pipe up. Otherwise look at the logic flow. If we lynched Grapes today that leaves us with the following pools of players before a Mafia Nightkill.
Confirmed Town (4)– myself, Random, yourself and Shiro.
Not Confirmed Town (3)– Almost, RR, Fuzzy
Shiro becomes confirmed not scum do to the game not ending when Shadow was lynched and he was bubbled per Mod confirmation to me in conjunction with the above 3 premises.

Stopping you there.
If we agree on the premise that grapes is town, it doesn't matter if he is confirmed as town via lynch.
We can automatically assume that Shiro is confirmed as town if grapes is town.

Therefore, we have three days, to lynch three candidates: Fuzzy, Almost50, and Reasonably Rational.

If we lynch grapes to prove he is town, we have two days to lynch three candidates.

There is no way to avoid the coinflip.
You can make assumptions. RR says Almost50 is town. You say Almost50 is town. I also do not believe Almost50 is scum (though not to the same level of conviction as you believe him to be town). So if we assume he is town, yes. There isn't a coinflip, because you've got two days to lynch Fuzzy and RR. But it's exactly that: an assumption.

We have FIVE players who are suspects.
No matter what, come lylo there will be an assumption in play.
If we ASSUME grapes is town, then we assume Shiro is town as an extension, and we lynch through RR/Fuzzy/Almost50.
If we ASSUME Almost50 is town, then we lynch grapes, confirm Shiro is town, and then we lynch through RR/Fuzzy.

But no matter what, there is exactly that in play: an ASSUMPTION.
There is zero way to get a gamestate free of a coinflip. No matter what, an assumption MUST be made.

2 Confirmed Town – Random and myself
5 Others – grapes, Fuzzy, RR, Almost, Shiro

Your theory here assumes a no lynch. And if we no lynch, that sure as fuck won't be my doing. It goes down to 4 after a lynch. And while there would indeed be four unconfirmed town...again. That's literally no different than what we already have.

Fuck theoretical gamebreaking strategies. Those were thrown out when Fuzzy was instructed by RR to make two sub-optimal plays.
Just scumhunt. And use every aspect of scumhunting, including setup spec. grapes is in theory scum, yes. Grapes is, in theory, possible as scum, sure. But tell me. Do you actually think he is? Do you actually think, out of all the players in the game, grapes has the highest chance of any of flipping scum?

If not, then you're never getting my support in lynching him.

If you do? If you sincerely, actually, believe that grapes has the highest chance of any player of flipping scum? Yeah, well, then show me. I've been asking for why grapes is scum. Aside from lolPOE, I've gotten basically nothing.

I will lynch who I think is scum.
I will compromise lynch on a player which doesn't remove my influence from the game (i.e., Fuzzy is a last resort who I'd vote if absolutely necessary to avoid a no-lynch).
I will not lynch one of my strongest townreads off of a theoretical plan which I don't even believe in. And you can point me to the numbers all day. I still won't believe in it.

Show me why grapes is scum. Or, alternatively, show me why every player aside from grapes is town. (You're allowed one exception if you feel there are two scum left.) I'd accept that. I'd listen to

that

. But I'm not listening to this, because this is not something which appeals to me.

Reasonably Rational is who I think the last scum is. I've explained in very thorough detail why I not only think they are scum, but also why I think every other player is town. I'm not looking for some theoretical strategy which ensures the town wins. I'm looking for a strategy in which the town wins TODAY. In other words, I'm looking to lynch scum TODAY.

And nobody has given me one IOTA of a reason to believe said scum is grapes. Fuck, I've done more work to show why grapes could be scum than the entire rest of the playerlist combined, and I did so in raising reasons why I don't think grapes is scum! (As in, "I see these points which COULD be indicators, but I don't think they're valid because of these reasons".)

I'm not interested in lynching scum later. I'm interested in lynching scum NOW. And I think that scum, singular, is Reasonably Rational. It's as simple as that.

[mastin2]

Are you arguing for or against my point?

Your point is pretty shit, so against.

In fact, are you telling me scum could have known about your ability from the word go, yet all those who allied with you were Town with the exception of S_S? In what world does that make any sense (for the scum not to try to make use of such a powerful tool they had the info about all along)?

One: I get to choose who I ally with, and I deliberately tried to ally with as few people as possible. Once I stopped allying with McMenno thanks to his death, I skipped allying until allying with Shadow_step. In other words, I've had only three allies the whole game.

Two, aside from me having the choice in who I ally with, my power is of very limited utility: all it does is make scum harder to lynch.
And three, if scum did in fact know about it, they could not vie for control of my ability without it being considered a scumclaim. Because my power is something a town player should never WANT to need. Being harder to lynch is something which scum have a use for and which town have almost no use for, so scum would have more reason to want the ability, and therefore demanding it be given to them would be a scumclaim.

And, again. Doesn't change my point. Scum may have more use for the ability, sure, but still...they sure as fuck wouldn't want to rely on it. Relying on it means that they were in a position where the majority of the town wanted to lynch them anyway. My ability would grant resistance to it, but not immunity: on earlier day phases, there'd be enough people alive to push it through, since it only takes two extra. On later day phases, it only delays the lynch. It only works as long as I'm allied with them and as long as it isn't mylo or lylo. Both of those conditions are things which can change.

[mastin2]

My point exactly. If you care to actually read rather than skim I said you won't be killed BEFORE LyLo. Also, what about me .. "on the other hand"?

...Did you at all read what I said? I'm going to be dead. You won't be. That's what I'm saying.

the fact you've been trying to force your views on us makes me feel I have not been only playing against scum this game, but also against you and our overwhelming will to monopolize the game and lead in a dictatorship manner.

Yeah, and that got us the SirCakez lynch, and the TWIE lynch. Tell me what were your stances on those two?

I've also been explaining exactly where I am coming from.
It's not like I've been demanding blind faith.
I've shown you all the reasons I have and then some for why I feel the way I do.
I've used quotes. Votecounts. Posts, from across the game. Interactions. Stuff players have done this day phase alone. What they say, how they say it, what they are accomplishing. I've told this all to you. So I've laid out my cards. I've displayed much of what I possibly have.

What have you said in response to these things?

Zilch.

What have you said to try and get others to believe you're correct?
Practically zilch.

And that's my fucking problem.

You're not saying why you believe things. Well maybe you'll give a brief explanation. But then you don't go to back it up. You keep it vague. You keep it general. You keep it abstract.

And I can't rationalize with an abstract. I can't evaluate it. I can't weigh if it's right or wrong. Yet that's all you've fucking given me. In spite of multiple pleas to be given something, anything, extra.

It's about me feeling that I have played in this game, not having just booked a spectator's seat from the sidelines of the playground.

AND WHO'S FUCKING FAULT IS THAT?!?
No shit if you're not giving logic and engaging the thread you're a spectator. No fucking shit if you're not giving reasons, if you're not explaining your stances in detail, you're sitting on the sidelines doing jacksquat.
That's my whole fucking issue.
You ARE a spectator. But that's not something that I can fix, now, is it?
I can't magically read your mind and know, "Oh, so

that

is where he's coming from!", now can I?
The only way I know where you are coming from is if you fucking SHOW me where you are coming from AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT I HAVE ASKED YOU TO DO YET YOU HAVE REFUSED TO GIVE ME.

Whereas, RR first is throwing the game away if there are two scums alive and they are not one.

People keep on saying this.
And I still don't see how it's true.
I mean, it's never happening. Reasonably Rational is scum.
But I don't see how two scum alive leads to a loss if we lynch RR.

[mastin2]

Like.

Does nobody here understand how I think?

I have come to this stance after having reviewed all the facts.
Soul-searching.
Dreaming about the game. (Yes I've thought about it in my sleep.)
Putting hours of thinking into the game away from the keyboard.
Spending countless hours IN the game, reviewing it.

I have put forward simple requests. Asking for the gamesolving from Reasonably Rational they are capable of. (11992 is the closest they've gotten yet to that, but is still not what I asked for. It's largely IIoA: listing what every player currently is, which are facts we all know. We all know the gems. We all know me. We all know the condition for Shiro. There's nothing new in there. Nothing except their stance on each player: how likely/unlikely they are to be scum. That's progress, sure. That's better than what they were giving, yes. But it's still not the comprehensive PLAN I was asking them to lay out, giving multiple options and outcomes for today.)

And from everyone else aside from RR, my request was simple:
Show me why I am wrong.
Show me where in my process I made a mistake.
Show me where I went wrong in townreading a player.
Show me where I went wrong in scumreading RR.
Show me why you think that a player is scum.
Show me why you think that RR is town.

Show me.
Just fucking show me.

I've been asking. Begging. Pleading. For people to show me why I am wrong. To prove why I am wrong to believe things I do.

And nobody has. Well, RR kinda has what with all of their character assassination and misreps of me. But that wasn't what I asked them to do.

And this simple thing has yet to be done.

[mastin2]

RR could also be scum but I think they're just bad town.

And therein lies the problem.

The hydra of Reasonably Rational is, with their combined style which has many strengths and very few weaknesses, one of THE best fucking town players in existence. Now, individually, they're reasonably strong players. Drixx alone can decimate a scumteam. Cerb alone, same. But they both have faults, and individually while they are "strong town players", by themselves, they are not a god-tiered scumhunter. Yet WHEN COMBINED, Reasonably Rational is one of the most obvtown players ever (an obvtown which has been utterly absent this whole game), who while not necessarily having perfect reads has some of THE best reads in the whole damn game.

They treat every player with respect, even those that deserve none. They are geniuses in mechanical exploitation, and set up scenarios where the town auto-wins. As a team, Reasonably Rational not only has the look of a town player, but the strength to push through lynch after lynch on scum players. There's a damn good reason that the only time they're allowed to live is when the scum are unable to kill them.

They are not in any way this shitty of a player. You absolutely CAN burden of proficiency their asses, and that's exactly what I am doing here.

[mastin2]

The fact that those two are the only ones alive that could be threats to earth with the knowledge of Xk's role means that skybird attempting to derail that alliance means there's exactly one scum between them when you consider that skybird was assumed to be confirmed town by many. Simple explanation is that scum didn't think xk had the balls to shoot sky and wanted to save twinwings.

Also this is a point which makes far more fucking sense if Reasonably Rational is scum because it fits their style.

Skybird was assumed to be town. Skybird was not someone that it was thought Xkfyu would actually shoot. So Skybird going in with Xkfyu would not only save Foxbird/Twinwings/Shadow_step's slot, but also give the scumteam an edge beyond that. That sounds an awful lot like a Reasonably Rational induced strategy.

That they pretend this is proof that they are town is damage control. "Xkfyu used this power to kill Skybird, so surely if we were scum, we wouldn't have allowed that!" Except, if they thought Xkfyu wouldn't kill Skybird...yes they fucking would. It has their signature all over it.

[mastin2]

Keep in mind that at this stage, a twinwings lynch at some point was obviously going to happen.

Citation needed, especially since...you know. Shadow_step got lynched on day fucking 8. Not day two. When was it at all obvious that slot was going to be lynched? And where was that sentiment? The slot got maybe a couple of votes and maybe a couple of scumreads beyond that--on that day, a mere fraction of the game. While it's not like many people exactly had positive reads on the slot, most were calling the slot completely null or if they tipped in a direction, it being nulltown/nullscum. That's not an assured lynch at all.

[mastin2]

The benefit is that scum were living in a world where skybird was lock-town and thought she was invincible.
I don't think that you were living in that world.

Wrong. They explicitly were. Skybird was in their unlynchable list.

Town/unlikely to be aligned with scum:(important distinction)
Skybird <<< PT with steven
So yeah. The people above are unlynchable yo.

Everyone below has no interactions which make me believe it is impossible for them to be scum, though some are less plausible as scum than others(such as grapes).
Shadow_Step

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Mastin-
why would RR shoot Far when it would be a lot easier to get me to vig them on day 8- If they did not shoot day 6 do you think there was a reason. Also why do you think they did not kill night 8- I know that it could be to frame me but since it would be better to keep me alive since most players have thought I have gone off the rails and pay little attention to me Lastly do you think RR hammered SC for town creds?

If RR is scum than she has been the scum mastermind. I see that possible but I have not bought into it 100 percent yet. Work with me

I still kinda want to die bc town seems to be making assumptions which could backfire.

Shiro- I feel your pain. Nobody listening to me either, I feel like the man in a tin hat telling them the world is about to explode and just getting weird looks. I am preety sure you are town. Like I said the only way you are scum is if there are two scum left. Its possible. I am not eliminating any possibilities but I feel like its not likely,

if Mastin in scum she deserves to win. To get Yume to fake claim for her and than play the way she has deserves a win. Like Shiro I not dismissing the possibilities however this seems very very very unlikely/

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Mastim
curious what makes you think there is something sinister in the RR read as opposed to just being a terrible read

[TheFuzzylogic99]

if Mastin is scum she deserves to be nominated for a scummy..........not only that but to win