STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[Varsoon]

"Doesn't your magical girlfriend know how to cook?"

Vidalia,

Greg the Babysitter

VOTECOUNT 9.04

Thefuzzylogic99 (2):

randomidget, MagnaofIllusion

Grapes (2):

Almost50, Reasonably Rational

Reasonably Rational (2):

Mastin2, Shiro

Almost50 (1):

grapes

Not Voting (1):

Thefuzzylogic99

With 8 Alive, it takes 5 to Lynch.
Deadline

: (expired on 2017-01-07 00:00:00)

The Current Stress is -1:

[MagnaofIllusion]

Stopping you there.
If we agree on the premise that grapes is town, it doesn't matter if he is confirmed as town via lynch.
We can automatically assume that Shiro is confirmed as town if grapes is town.

No I don’t agree that grapes is Town. Why do you bother with this avenue when you flat out know I don’t believe it? I think grapes stands a better than likely chance of being Leftover Scum joining Lapis. That’s for certain. That exercise was simply to show you that even if grapes is Town confirming it before Daybreak tomorrow is a shut-down win for Town and you are standing in the way of that with your stance.

Fuck theoretical gamebreaking strategies.

Fuck stupid stances that only serve to reinforce self-pride.

Show me why grapes is scum. Or, alternatively, show me why every player aside from grapes is town. (You're allowed one exception if you feel there are two scum left.)

You can’t prove people are Town via anything short of IC status confirmed by the mod and asking for that as evidence is stupid. Hell there is doubt in some players minds that you aren’t scum given that reliability of Yume as a witness to your IC status. You aren’t a Newb and I expect better from you than that.

As to why grapes is scum – his behavior looks very much like scum behavior.

Firstly we have his general engagement level with the game. Grapes has been a more or less non-entity since I joined at the start of Day 3. I think I actually forgot he was in the game at one point that was how non-impactful his presences was up until today. Now the fact that he has suddenly “come alive” after it is clear that he’s realistically a lynch candidate and only got saved by your Alliance ability fits very well with scum (in this case Leftover Joiner variety) who got an early Town read and has been cruising along on that just looking for endgame.

But let’s look at his pushes and behavior on the important days starting Day 3. Day 1 and 2 are being ignored because as a Leftover Joiner his push on SirCakez would have been from a standpoint of not knowing who scum were. If he joined like XK it was after Day 2.

Day 3 was the DGB lynch. Grapes starts the day with a farside vote at 6628 after saying that both DGB and farside are good votes in 6613. In that reads post he also puts Shadow as a secondary scum read with Kraska and RR. The farside vote comes right after Vote Count 3.01 showing Farside with 3 votes and DGB with 2. So grapes votes and gives the farside wagon an early lead as opposed to supporting her other suspect DGB and making it a tie.

6792 again shows soft suspicion of Shadow (asking his favorite kind of rope). And then we get a soft “Skybird might be scum” at 6963.

After Vote Count 3.06 where Farside is at 9 votes grapes hops off the wagon on Town and votes for kraska at 7749. This is significant because DGB (who previously was the best other vote per grapes’s own posting) was at 6 votes and grapes is simply following a single mastin kraska vote. This doesn’t show a Town thought process. Grapes is acting contrary to his stated reads (moving from a dominant wagon on one of his top scum reads and ignoring his other top scum read that was the next most viable wagon) and simply joining a vanity wagon on Town. Looks like scum who knew a mislynch might be afoot and was searching for a way to get off while not fueling an already strong wagon on scum.

Reminder of what that vanity wagon looked like in the next vote count –

VOTECOUNT 3.07

Farside22 (8): Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball, Skybird, Yume, Xkfyu
DrippingGoofball (6): Shiro, Thefuzzylogic99, Not Chara, McMenno, Creature, Farside22
Kraskaesque (3): mastin2, grapes, Shadow_Step

Three flipped scum fueling Farside and another scum on kraska with grapes.

Then we get another one-off vote on Snarky at 7850. Again DGB has been a viable wagon this whole time and grapes is not even looking at DGB or questioning her or anything.

Farside gets lynched and proves lynchproof and the vote count is reset at 3.09. Grapes once again drops a Snarky (Town) vote at 8113. First mention at all of DGB after the initial “Hey, they are a great vote” is 8319 basically downplaying interaction reading since DGB is a traitor.

Here’s the snapshot of the vote state as of 3.11 –

VOTECOUNT 3.11

SnarkySnowman (7): McMenno, Farside22, Titus, Not Chara, grapes, mastin2, TheWayItEnds
DrippingGoofball (4): Thefuzzylogic99, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion, Creature
Farside22 (1): Almost50

Not Voting (9): Shadow_Step, Xkfyu, Skybird, Shiro, DrippingGoofball, Reasonably Rational, Kraskaeaque, Firebringer, randomidget

Note that grapes is part of the counter-wagon push for Snarky. Then at 8490 grapes hops on the DGB wagon with narry a comment why. And let’s look at grapes’ placement on the wagon –

VOTECOUNT 3.12 : LYNCH

DrippingGoofball (LYNCH): Thefuzzylogic99, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion, Creature, Titus, Shiro, Firebringer, grapes, McMenno, Farside22, Not Chara

That is prime “Oh well better get on the bus” vote movement right there. Once again – at the start of the day DGB was one of grapes’s two “best vote” locations but he only ever actually voted DGB when it became clear she was doomed.

His only post Day 4 (Snarky’s quicklynch) was to say “I didn’t get an Alliance” at 8619

Day 5 –

Opens with a farside vote at 9138. Now let’s look at his reads list presented –

Okay so we can't even lynch today because what the fuck let's all pile on snarky.
Thought after the skybird flip he looked more town. Which is why I voted kraska for the lynch thing.

Shadow_Step - meh
Almost50 - wouldn't lynch today
Shiro - meh
Farside22 - good lynch
Reasonably Rational - wouldn't lynch today
mastin2 - wouldn't lynch today
Kraskaeaque - good lynch
MagnaofIllusion - meh
TheFuzzylogic99 - wouldn't lynch today
Creature - wouldn't lynch today
randomidget - meh
TheWayItEnds - good lynch

Just completely off the top of the dome. I know twie looks pretty bad especially since he didn't vig I mean he might've been blocked but really it's getting more and more convenient.

TWIE (scum), Farside and Kraska (both Town) are “good lynches”. Again look through his ISO yourself but this is yet another case of scum being in his top pile but not questioning / pushing on them in thread at all.

And SS is “meh”.

Next I direct you to the following –

As for farside, I dunno man. Looks like there's a lot of things there. I mean I could see town just lolhammering snarky there I suppose and I don't really get why the numbers matter so much when you're voting to lynch anyway. It's easy to paint -not letting everyone get alliances- as scummy. It's easy to paint her role as scummy because it kinda is.

But the trouble is based on XK's flip that the leftovers have literally no reason to not try and help the faction who's lending them more of an ear. And town sure as hell has been pissed at farside.

Kraska's groupscum for certain. And if there's 5 twie's the last.

I’ve bolded the above portion to highlight that as of Day 5 to show that prior to today’s early “There are no Leftovers” flailing by grapes he was posting from a standpoint that he believed there was more than one.

And to point out that he’s slotting kraska above TWIE in his scum potential hierarchy while positing TWIE might even not be scum due to there only being 4.

And a snapshot into the Day’s state at Vote Count 5.03 –

VOTECOUNT 5.03

TheWayItEnds (3): Farside22, Kraskaeaque, mastin2
Farside22 (2): ReasonablyRational, Almost50
Creature (1): MagnaofIllusion
TheFuzzyLogic99 (1): Shadow_Step

Not Voting (6): Shiro, grapes, Thefuzzylogic99, Creature, randomidget, TheWayItEnds

So TWIE is the leading wagon but grapes isn’t voting one of his top suspects at this stage.

Grapes votes TWIE at 9975 and then votes kraska less than 100 posts later at 10061.

TWIE gets lynched this day and grapes ends up on the kraska vanity wagon at Vote Count 5.06.

From this point on Shadow is the only remaining known scum. Remember all that early “Shadow is scum” distancing from Day 3? Keep that in mind going forward.

pedit: I'm not sure creature -- most people think you're scum and I really liked the idea of a shadow/fuzzy duo. Because I can see those two ironing out there differences and I don't trust fuzzy with a vig by himself he already shot fire apparently.

Now that scum is very handicapped in membership Shadow is a good person to be helping mind Fuzzy’s shot. Yet still there are escape holes to renew that Shadow scum read as shown in 11056.

He votes Shadow this day only after Mastin throws his support to Creature at 11133. It is an important position as the wagon on Creature was effectively at L-1 (I was off only to make sure Alliances get set) so it is a safe vote that isn’t going to get a lynch. Why do I call it a distancing vote?

Because the next day Shadow after getting three quick votes (none of which are grapes) opens with his “oops, slipped in talking to grapes in the QT” post at 11267. And grapes says one thing about it. No “Oh You Scumbag Don’t Try To WIFOM Take Me With You!” outrage. Compare this with his reaction to Fuzzy saying he wants to Vig Grapes at starting at 11259. It isn’t consistent at all that grapes would go out of his way to react to one threat to take him out (Vig at Night) but not an attempt to get him lynched by scum. Grapes was comfortable taking the WIFOM ticket (banking on people assuming that it was a gambit by Shadow to drag him down).

So in summary grapes’s voting / suspicion profile very much fits informed Scum. He only is ever a part of wagons when it is a forgone conclusion (never early fueling them) and convienently has reasons to vote Town (kraska, farside) on the occasions when scum is an alternate top scum suspect for him.

This post is getting long enough but I’ll cover today in another post later.

[Randomnamechange]

if Random was scum
Night5- shot MOI( if I understand right) but was RB
Night6- Shot far?
Night7- RB by Event
Night 8- RB by event

why the fuck would i shoot the person claiming masons with me

if Mastin is scum she deserves to be nominated for a scummy..........not only that but to win

not really as Yume would be the entire reason why

RR
MOI is not voting for me ...however Shiro snd Random are voting me

MOI
Yeah bc asking questions and trying to figure things out is just so so scummy.......I hate how you are trying to make me feel dumb for asking questions....really this is just anti town, Sorry you are not helping, I don't think you are scum. Its possible but unlikely.
On the questions ......If you are scum than you either are lying about setting off the event or being targeted. As I said its odd that you set off an event that saved your own life........ Its possible though. That why I was asking you about it. I am trying to work through these things out..... No I am not CC As I said I am just trying to figure out how exactly the event work.

please please please stop defending Random and letting him just skate by...... I don't think this is an unreasonable request


Can everyone just vote me and get it over with bc honestly I a tired of this game...............I am going to get mislynched at some point so I rather it be today/ Thanks

dude just stop.
This push from fuzzy is so scum motivated.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Mastin

– Why don’t you ask grapes about his claimed Cop Event? I’d really like to see your take on what he claims to have.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOI
Yeah bc asking questions and trying to figure things out is just so so scummy.......I hate how you are trying to make me feel dumb for asking questions....really this is just anti town, Sorry you are not helping, I don't think you are scum. Its possible but unlikely.
On the questions ......If you are scum than you either are lying about setting off the event or being targeted. As I said its odd that you set off an event that saved your own life........ Its possible though. That why I was asking you about it. I am trying to work through these things out..... No I am not CC As I said I am just trying to figure out how exactly the event work.

See this response avoids all the important points I brought up and tries to sideline it in "I'm trying to figure stuff out".

Facts -

1. An Event Occured.
2. The Event specified that it prevented a death.

The Event "AH! DON'T HURT HER! DON'T HURT... ME." has been triggered, causing the following public effects:
Due to the effects of this event, a death has been prevented from happening during Climax 5.
Since this death has been prevented, no role information will be flipped and the stress will not be affected.

3. I am claiming to have triggered the Event and saved myself.
4. No-one is counter-claiming me.

And yet you persist in trying to "understand" something that doesn't need any more explanation. If I was lying why hasn't someone said "Oh no I triggered that Event" to get me lynched by this point? You look like you are trying to find angles to doubt the claim (which solidifies I'm not scum as I was the Nightkill target) to leave me in a scum pool. This isn't a Bastard Game so there is no way as scum I could concoct fact information from the Mod to cover a No-Kill.

Furthermore you didn't answer why I would trigger ANOTHER event that prevented the Mafia Nightkill if I was scum when the game-state made that very damaging to scum.

[Reasonably Rational]

@Mastin

– Why don’t you ask grapes about his claimed Cop Event? I’d really like to see your take on what he claims to have.

Mastin can't talk to grapes privately.

I'm a little confused by why grapes wouldn't have triggered a cop event at some point though.

I believe, even if we voted TFL and shiro moved over, one of {grapes, mastin, or A50} would also need to vote there, and a believe they're all as against TFL as scum as I was at day start.

-Cerb

[TheFuzzylogic99]

MOI-
Thanks.......I am a bit slow and needs a bit more help figuring thing out, I know that it prob frustrating to you who can figure out things more quickly, It know it weird but I like to write out my thinking process as I go along, See the list I just made. If you noticed I have done that all game long. The chart I made last night is just a what if...... based on the info we have. Posting it also gives me a chance to get feed back some times and helps me get out of my bubble think. Some of the what if does not make sense bc the evidence points that it doesn't make sense. For example the mastin as scum makes zero sense bc te the evidence pointing to Mastin. being scum makes zero sense. The chart of you being scum does not make sense bc the event Ahh don't hurt me points to you being town. The only way you are scum is if you lied about the event, That is possible but seems unlikely as someone would of CC you.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Also I can be a bit stubborn and thick headed,,,,,,,,but that's another thing entirely

[TheFuzzylogic99]

BTW the reason I asked is bc while I thought that you set off the event I was not sure you were the one targeted,

[grapes]

Firstly we have his general engagement level with the game. Grapes has been a more or less non-entity since I joined at the start of Day 3. I think I actually forgot he was in the game at one point that was how non-impactful his presences was up until today.

My presence had already been made known before you replaced in. If you want to pretend that all the posts before that don't exist, fine, but don't sell me short I think I've played at least an okay game here.

You also don't need to post a lot to make waves and considering my role, I think most people would find it forgivable to be somewhat cagey with reads.

The rest is confirmation bias + the typical "changing reads means you're scum" nonsense. Moving on.

[grapes]

What I'd like to do before deadline is iso-dive Almost's Day 2. See if that helps or hampers the confidence.

[grapes]

BTW the reason I asked is bc while I thought that you set off the event I was not sure you were the one targeted,

I actually don't remember if it was confirmed magna was shot or if scum possibly no-killed again.
It's the easiest explanation for the missing kill that night sure but it's also not a given I don't believe.

Mastin was talking about N5 being somewhat of a mystery and

I think

that was when scum might've tried to shoot farside because she got 2 points that day someone correct me if I'm wrong there.

[grapes]

If you ally with any player, you will learn if they are a Human or a Gem.

So long as you are allied with a player, you are immune to all actions.

Bolding this. Skybird was in an alliance with Xkfyu. Skybird was thus supposedly immune to all actions.

Her allying with Xkfyu to save the life of the Foxbird/Twinwings/Shadow_step slot therefore makes sense:
One, she was considered confirmed town.
Two, even if not, she was far less likely to be shot.
And three,

even if she was, there was cause to believe the shot would be wasted

.

In fact, looking at the nature of the ability:

EPISODE EVENT: Exposition Only--Trigger any time a player successfully allies with you.
PRIORITY: 2
REQUIREMENTS: +2 Stress or higher.
You may immediately (privately) end your alliance to cause all players allied with you to publicly be removed from the game for an entire Episode.

You may privately decide to kill a single player that is removed in this way. They will die upon returning to the game.

Even if you conveyed the nature of the kill. Xkfyu paraphrasing to you, Almost50, and you paraphrasing to Reasonably Rational. This kill doesn't look like it would trump Skybird's immunity on the surface.

Now, we happen to know in hindsight that yes it did. With Xkfyu's flip and Skybird's flip, we can see the verbiage that would allow it: she was removed from the game, and by being removed from the game, was therefore no longer in the alliance and therefore vulnerable. But that exact detail would have had to have survived the chain.

Tell me, Almost50. What EXACTLY did you tell RR?
Because if you didn't convey the ability in a specific phrasing...then yeah. Reasonably Rational could have assumed Skybird was immune to the kill. In fact! Reasonably Rational could have killed Yume

specifically so that Xkfyu would trigger and waste his event

, on someone who would be immune to its effect. (Or so they would have believed.)

This was what I was trying to say before but couldn't put the words together the right way.

At the very least "THE THINGS A50 AND RR KNEW ABOUT WOULD MEAN THEY'D HAVE TO BE GAMETHROWING" becomes null and void, possibly more suspect for both of them depending on how you look at it. Like I want to find the post where skybird accepts the alliance and see if it looks cheeky or not. Will do that after I read up and post my almost-day2-analysis.

[grapes]

Almost50 gets confirmation that GRAPES DID NOT TARGET ANYONE. Which confirms grapes as town.

You're talking to the guy who thinks the only way I'm scum is if I'm a leftover-scum-deathbubbler-thatcan'tcommitthefactionalkillanyway.
So you're wasting a lot of breath with this in particular.

The mind-hoolahoops that people are jumping through to call me scum are mind boggling to the point where I cringe everytime I respond to any of them.

And this is coming from a person who thinks your mason claim might've been a scum gambit. hehe

[grapes]

Beyond anything else you don’t get to play the injured party while basically insulting the ability and effort of every other player in the game.

[grapes]

please please please stop defending Random and letting him just skate by...... I don't think this is an unreasonable request

At this point you need to read magna and random as a single entity. Do you understand why?

[grapes]

The benefit is that scum were living in a world where skybird was lock-town and thought she was invincible.
I don't think that you were living in that world.

Wrong. They explicitly were. Skybird was in their unlynchable list.

Town/unlikely to be aligned with scum:(important distinction)
Skybird <<< PT with steven
So yeah. The people above are unlynchable yo.

Everyone below has no interactions which make me believe it is impossible for them to be scum, though some are less plausible as scum than others(such as grapes).
Shadow_Step

Interesting.

And although I don't agree that they know what scum looks like on any nonobvious level you do have a good point about them not obvtowning (at least consistently) to levels I've seen from them as town. There are sparks of it, like when they got pushed day 2 and maybe the inconsistency there could just be attributed to apathy? This game has seen a lot of that.

We're on the right track, though, I believe. One of a50/rr is desperately pocketed town and the other is scum.
Comes down to whether I believe that rr could believe in their poe (possible that they do) or if I believe any of the bullshit almost has spewed today could come from someone who believes what they're saying. Cerb at least tried to hear me out (is that scum who knows though) almost50 continues the death tunnel despite all evidence to the contrary and misreps and nitpicks wherever possible.

It's not an easy decision.

And the funniest part is that fuzzy makes sense as scum too but I'm giving him far more benefit of the doubt just for being fuzzy and the fact that it can't be that easy.

Why won't you vote a50 today?

[grapes]

@Mastin

– Why don’t you ask grapes about his claimed Cop Event? I’d really like to see your take on what he claims to have.

By the way what is your town-motivation for outing my role at this point?

[grapes]

Say the word and I'll just fullclaim. You don't need to act coy.

[grapes]

Mini-rant for a minute.

There's no scum-kill night 1.
The only doctor in the game was on grapes.

"wifom gambit even though grapes didn't know about chara's doc"
"he's a scum-leftover-judas"
"he fucking turned like ... day 3 or some shit ... i saw a picture of peridot and lapis drinking lemonade together on twitter lapis makes sense as a leftover"

This is what the fuck I'm dealing with.

[grapes]

If farside were here she'd vote A50 with me. Guarantee it.

[Reasonably Rational]

If you ally with any player, you will learn if they are a Human or a Gem.

So long as you are allied with a player, you are immune to all actions.

Bolding this. Skybird was in an alliance with Xkfyu. Skybird was thus supposedly immune to all actions.

Her allying with Xkfyu to save the life of the Foxbird/Twinwings/Shadow_step slot therefore makes sense:
One, she was considered confirmed town.
Two, even if not, she was far less likely to be shot.
And three,

even if she was, there was cause to believe the shot would be wasted

.

In fact, looking at the nature of the ability:

EPISODE EVENT: Exposition Only--Trigger any time a player successfully allies with you.
PRIORITY: 2
REQUIREMENTS: +2 Stress or higher.
You may immediately (privately) end your alliance to cause all players allied with you to publicly be removed from the game for an entire Episode.

You may privately decide to kill a single player that is removed in this way. They will die upon returning to the game.

Even if you conveyed the nature of the kill. Xkfyu paraphrasing to you, Almost50, and you paraphrasing to Reasonably Rational. This kill doesn't look like it would trump Skybird's immunity on the surface.

Now, we happen to know in hindsight that yes it did. With Xkfyu's flip and Skybird's flip, we can see the verbiage that would allow it: she was removed from the game, and by being removed from the game, was therefore no longer in the alliance and therefore vulnerable. But that exact detail would have had to have survived the chain.

Tell me, Almost50. What EXACTLY did you tell RR?
Because if you didn't convey the ability in a specific phrasing...then yeah. Reasonably Rational could have assumed Skybird was immune to the kill. In fact! Reasonably Rational could have killed Yume

specifically so that Xkfyu would trigger and waste his event

, on someone who would be immune to its effect. (Or so they would have believed.)

This was what I was trying to say before but couldn't put the words together the right way.

At the very least "THE THINGS A50 AND RR KNEW ABOUT WOULD MEAN THEY'D HAVE TO BE GAMETHROWING" becomes null and void, possibly more suspect for both of them depending on how you look at it. Like I want to find the post where skybird accepts the alliance and see if it looks cheeky or not. Will do that after I read up and post my almost-day2-analysis.

There's are two problems with the idea that scum would have assumed skybird would be immune to an event based kill.

First, tbey had multiple event based kills, one of which they had used on someone who could be expected to be BP or otherwise protected. Minimum competence assigned to scum should mean they would have asked whether or not that event would pierce BP. That means Varsoon said yes, it would, or no it wouldn't and they went for it anyways, or " That depends." It's a question they should have asked a good while before, so either they knew it would work period and thus knew that risk when allying with xk, or they didn't know if it would work and would therefore be rolling the dice on whether or not skybird would live if targeted by Xks event.

I get that I'm assigning a minimum level of competence to scum here, MoI(before you go off about me assuming perfect play blah blah again), but you can't assume scum just did a bunch of dumb things.

Second, Skybird's protection was alliance based. They had just removed Yume, removing a permanent alliance and thus permanent source of protection. Even if they expected Skybird to be protected by her ability, they would have no way to know for certain exactly how xks event worked and whether she would still count as protected when removed by his power. I suppose they could have thought that the event wouldn't even trigger and remove her, but that sorts goes back to 1. Speaking of which, just to resolve this:

@Varsoon: when Skybird was removed from the game by a trap for clods, was she still considered in an alliance? In addition, did her protection also protect her from events?

I'm pretty sure the answers to these questions are both no, but I'm just asking to illustrate that scum could have easily asked similar questions to be aware of the risks.

-Cerb

[grapes]

@Cerb: Your argument especially doesn't work now because you yourself believed skybird was very likely to be town. It wouldn't be dumb at all to make sure Xk didn't ally with a prime vig-shot in twin.

And yea I could see you asking all those questions to varsoon.

But a skybird/foxbird/a50/shadowstep/dgb/twie scumteam? Who in that list wasn't an apathetic lurkfuck besides a50?
A50 seem like a scum mastermind?
You don't need to answer that last question.

This rhetoric is tired anyway.
What other bad reasons to you have for why A50 is town?

[Reasonably Rational]

*shrug* Maybe you're right. Maybe I expect too much from people, assume they'll have the same concerns I would have.

That still doesn't make risking Skybird better than drawing suspicion to Twinwings by just not allying, or by allying elsewhere, or by shooting xk.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Maybe that's buyable, but we're not talking just bad play. The scum team used the event to kill Yume, whom Skybird had a permanent alliance with. That kill is what moved stress and allowed for the trap event to be used. At that point, I cannot believe it's possible that the scum team could have known about it

unless

the whole thing was done, including the intentional risking of Skybird's powerful role, just to fool us.

And at that point, it's actually not sarcastic to call A50 a mastermind, because he's pretty well convinced us he's town. Although you are eroding my personal confidence.

While you're here though, I do have a question for you: what did you learn from your gambit pretending you were lynched earlier today?

~Drixx