Micro 662: ArcAngel's Twin Trap Mafia (Ended)

[milkshake]

in the 1.5 years I've been away

VOTE: Pine

[milkshake]

Question: When we say it takes "4 for no lynch," do we mean if four people vote for no lynch then there will be no lynch? I thought no lynch was not allowed in this setup actually, as per the rules at the beginning of the thread.

[milkshake]

Yes. Yes Arnold. Come with me if you want to lynch scum.

[milkshake]

Sleepless Assassin should agree with this vote. Bandwagons are good for making games come to life!

VOTE: Sleepless Assassin

[milkshake]

Arnold mentioned Pine's comment that the exchange between MisaTange and Sleepless Assassin was "not town vs. town." I might as well note that I also didn't like Pine's comment. But I don't have any solid reads at this point.

I think the best stance at this point in the game is pro-lynching-anyone. The numbers back this up too. I think this strategy will serve the town well:

1. Bring someone to L-1
2. Listen to what they have to say
3. Someone hammers or someone doesn't. If the latter, repeat these steps.

[milkshake]

Lil Uzi Vert, I agree with your assessment that there is not enough content right now to deduce anything substantial. BUT, the stance you have taken because of the lack of information is exactly what I advise against. You say you don't feel like voting anybody. Specifically you don't want to vote Sleepless Assassin, MisaTange, and Pine. Sleepless Assassin is the most relevant of these three because he has the most votes right now.

There is not enough content, yes. So, anyone has a 2 out of 9 chance to be scum. If you run the numbers, you will find a 2 out of 9 chance is good enough for the town at this point. If you feel apathetic, just join the bandwagon. Then the content will come.

[milkshake]

Pine, let me offer some evidence to refute your claim that random bandwagons during the beginning of the game are not a town strategy. We currently have 7 town players and 2 scum. A random choice of a player will of course have a 2/9 chance of being scum. As previously stated, a lynch with a 2/9 chance of success is good enough for the town. A town player has no reason to reject a random bandwagon.

A scum player, however, should reject a random bandwagon on his scum partner IF the town allows players the option of abstaining from any bandwagon for whatever reason- most commonly "reads." Even better, if he can, a scum player should start his own bandwagon on a player he or she knows to be town. For this reason, town players should reject bandwagons dictated by other players and hop on the most random bandwagon possible. A bandwagon target dictated by a player has a 2/9 chance of being dictated by scum.

MisaTange's vote on Sleepless Assassin was retaliatory. A scum player being accused by town might respond in that way. A town player being accused by a player of unknown alignment might respond in that way. Finally, a scum player involved in bussing might (as you have suggested) also respond in that way. Therefore, I propose that the bandwagon on Sleepless Assassin was decided by random enough impetus to serve as the town's bandwagon.

[milkshake]

Pine, I think I almost have successfully communicated my analysis to you. Just one detail is missing, and you have basically provided it yourself in your post. You said that when scum is the driving force for a wagon, it isn't random. This is correct, and this is why the town needs a random source for the wagon. It is also why I chose the Sleepless Assassin wagon which MisaTange started. It was the only wagon to have accumulated more than one vote at the time (it still is), and it was started for a sufficiently random reason.

[milkshake]

For the reasons outlined in my posts, I recommend everyone hop aboard the Sleepless Assassin wagon! Sleepless Assassin is OK with it. He told me himself.

[milkshake]

"Reads" on day one are less accurate than random chance.

In addition to Sleepless Assassin, I would also be happy lynching someone who hasn't participated yet. That fits my criteria well, too.

[milkshake]

Not just _I_ would be happy with it. Everyone should get on board. If we allow people to sit around because they don't like participating in bandwagons, that's exactly what scum will do when there is a bandwagon on their partner. And they will do so with impunity.

[milkshake]

Three points for Space_Ade:

1. I agree that a wagon on Kop or ThinkBig would be even better than the one on Sleepless Assassin. However, those players had no votes at the time, whereas Sleepless Assassin had 2. Now, yours is the only vote on Kop or ThinkBig, and Sleepless Assassin is at L-2. So it's a practical matter.

2. The risk of bringing a town power role to L-1 is just one we have to take. The alternative is stagnation.

3. As for "pro-lynching" not being the best stance, I really don't see how it could not be unless you are advocating a no-lynch? A no-lynch is something I would consider entertaining if you presented me with a numerical argument.

[milkshake]

(Of course if we did no lynch we would have to do two no lynches! One no lynch is factually horrible. The wiki demonstrates why: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... rs,_Part_1 )

[milkshake]

I can see that you feel very strongly about Mafia not being a numbers game, Pine. Correct me if I'm wrong, I think you place great value on the idea that we can detect by looking at someone's posts what is in their role PM, even on day 1. I think we maybe should continue this discussion after the game is over, so that it doesn't derail our game thread. Should be an interesting chat!!

[milkshake]

Come on, Pine. Don't say personal things about me. I came from The Grey Labyrinth, anyway! And I do like it there, but I like it here too!

There is nothing to be gained by talking aimlessly. Voting, there is something to be gained from. Votes on people who already have votes, especially, have an actual effect on the game. Therefore scum has a true motivation to play different from town- specifically, to not participate in bandwagons on their partner. As for just posting words, players can all do that equally well, regardless of what's in their role PM.

[milkshake]

By the way if anyone is interested in town's winning percentage with purely random lynches, with 2 scum and 7 town it's 94/315 (~29.84%). Interesting, yeah? It would be even more interesting to look at the results of games, look at the accuracy of lynches on day 1, day 2, etc. and compare reality with random chance for different days, different setups, etc.

[milkshake]

I'm going to say my point more passionately this time. Then maybe I'll let it rest. Or maybe not!

Most of the "scum hunting" going on in this thread is based on this idea: scum look at their role PM, have some sort of deep emotional shift, and can never again play the game correctly, instead making posts with all sorts of strange emotional motivations deeply affected by their desire to "fit in" and "look town."

This is a silly idea! Ignoring what is in your role PM and posting your true thoughts anyway is not hard at all! Under the one scenario when there is a possibility of your scum partner getting lynched, THEN you have to go through contortions, because you are the only one with motivation not to vote him. Town players have no information about him, and are as happy to participate as anyone else. Of course, if town players frequently refuse to participate based on "reads," then scum can just say they have a "read," and we have lost any hope of

true

scum hunting.

For my part, at this day 1 juncture, I'm willing to participate in any bandwagon that gains steam. And all town players should be. If they aren't, we reach stagnation, which has sort of already happened, and as demonstrated in the previous paragraph we lose the most reliable source of information. Only when someone is near being lynched will we be able to make any sort of legitimate inferences about alignment.

[milkshake]

Yup. So anyway I don't think Kop is necessarily scum. But I'd be happy to policy lynch him if he continues to refuse to vote.

Right now the player with the most votes is Sleepless Assassin with three, and the second is me with two. So, everyone should vote Sleepless Assassin. Or me if Sleepless Assassin is your scum buddy. (That last part being partially facetious... partially!)

[milkshake]

I feel you are assuming multiple things.

1. That all players are experienced in the role of a scum and know how to ignore their PM designation. Isn't it possible there are players who could scumslip under the pressure of quality questioning?

2.You are assuming the partner goes through contortions on voting or not. If the players are as exp as you claim to be, then they won't think twice in bussing their partner. In fact their primary motivation would be to provide as many facts that could support the lynch.

3. "Town players are happy to participate". Why should they be happy to participate when there is a possibility of a townie being lynched. If you take a townie to L-1 and he/she claims a PR role, won't mafia just kill that player at night? Again am not suggesting 'Not lynch', as you previously assumed. But it is better to take a person om whom we have genuine reads to L-1.

4. Also discussions that happen on day1 always supports day2 proceedings.

5. Something else that I realised. In this format, the person with the highest vote gets lynched, whether or not they are hammered. Suppose a person is at L-2. The mafia just needs to be quiet and wait for the deadline. So it's imp that we apply pressure on players who appear to be lurking.

Thank you for these points! Let me offer my comments.

1. It's true that I'm assuming all players have a basic level of ability. However, try as I might I can't think of an instance where a player could really scumslip. In real life, maybe yes, but this is a forum and you can take as much time as you like to compose a post. I can't think of a situation in which a player would submit something that reveals they are scum solely because someone was prodding them.

2. This is correct and it points to the two strategies scum can use when there is a wagon on their partner: 1) don't participate, offer some excuse, and hope nobody clues in to what's going on; 2) participate and increase the chance that their partner gets lynched. 2) is what you suggest, and it does prevent 1) from happening, BUT it has its own drawback. Their partner is more likely to be lynched, which if it happens is a huge blow to scum's winning chances.

3. There is a very big possibility of a townie being lynched on day 1, and there is nothing the town can do about that except no lynch! Same goes for risking wagons on PRs. There is nothing that can be done about that (except no lynch, for which I believe a completely reasonable argument could be made.)

4. Agreed that discussions on day 1 might be useful on day 2 IF those discussions include votes, especially votes with real possibilities of becoming lynches. Discussions with no votes I believe have limited usefulness.

5. No comment, I totally agree!

[milkshake]

Spade_Ace, yours is the only vote on Vedith. I think you should change your vote to me or Sleepless Assassin or Kop. Personally I think Sleepless Assassin over Kop.

[milkshake]

Ok, I will join the Kop wagon.

VOTE: Kop

This will help things happen I think.

My heart wants Pine to be scum, because his play is based on such incorrect understanding of the game from my viewpoint, but I think that just because he disagrees with me doesn't make him scum. However he does seem to think I am scum, ha. I do think there's a chance he's scum, but anyway there's no votes on Pine. So it's a moot point.

[milkshake]

That's L-1

[milkshake]

I don't think anyone here cares about strong words so I'm just going to phrase this strongly.

It's funny how twisted around themselves some of the players here are. Your idea of how to play the game is based on such fallacious nonsense that when I actually try to use reason, I drive people wild, make them post reaction pics, and get myself to L-1.

Yes, I will join any bandwagon that was NOT started for the reason "Based on his posts and nothing else, no game related information, I think this one specific player is scum." Because that reason can be used by anyone. Especially scum. True, in the current state of the game, town players use that reason too. But I can't differentiate between town using that reason and scum using it. And you can't either. After we join some bandwagons, THEN we might have something to work off of.

Possibly if I flip, someone will actually come forward with something based on reason. If I don't get hammered, I will continue trying to post sense. As to how things have gotten this way now, it's possible that this is because the current town just lacks the ability to recognize logic, so scum are just telling them bologna and they think "oh yes, that's smart mafia stuff." Or it may be people really believe this garbage. Like I've somehow betrayed my inner feelings through my forum posts, and it's now so clear that I'm scum.

If I'm not hammered, it's also possible that someone on my wagon is going to turn around now and say "oh, based on milkshake's reaction, he's town. My plan worked guys." I really don't know how to feel about that. If that's the case and you're town, then you've thrown up a whole facade and discarded it all for no reason. I could make this post just as well if I was scum as I can now as town. If, even worse, the person who said that then becomes "lynch immune," then I know that nonsense has prevailed again.

I don't hold it against the site and I still think this game is pretty fun. Just kind of outraged at what's happened so far this game!

Anyway, I'm a vanilla townie. Based on this claim, I should be hammered now, right? That's exactly what the numbers say SHOULD happen on Day 1: a vanilla townie gets lynched. So maybe I shouldn't complain. It's a completely probable outcome excepting the 2-no-lynches strategy (which I do think might be OK). Except that nothing posted has acknowledged the reality of the situation. Instead, what I see is "I'm 100% sure milkshake is scum" which due to its obvious lack of any basis in fact is getting the town nowhere.

[milkshake]

Minimum word count requirement reached. Player is town.

[milkshake]

I don't know what to think about anything.

Must kill kop.

[milkshake]

We could also lynch lil uzi vert (save the mod some work) or do a no lynch.

[milkshake]

The dogmatic rejection of no lynch is another failure to use your head, but to tell you the truth at this juncture my fight-for-reason fuel has been mostly used up.

Kop lynch works too, I suppose.

[milkshake]

VOTE: Arnold Schwarzenegger

Honestly, this vote is based on a "read."

No idea why I'm suddenly voting based on a read when I have been arguing the whole time how stupid Day 1 reads with no information are.

^^^
I was about to make this post and then Misa made it so it didn't even matter any more. Well. We'll see what happens. Probably I just made myself look really stupid.

[milkshake]

Misa, I only still made the post after I saw yours because I knew the day was already over.

[milkshake]

I kind of feel like maybe I shouldn't have. Also to be honest I wasn't 100% thinking about it being the lynch, I was mentally considering Misa's vote to be equivalent to a lynch since there was 1 hour remaining in the day. I kind of feel like I may have made a stupid mistake, especially since it goes against what I was saying before. I guess we'll see.

[milkshake]

Then again, it is the middle of the night in the U.S. and there's a very low chance that Arnold is going to log on between now and 50 minutes from now. So probably my initial assumption that it didn't matter was right. Again, we'll see. Sorry for the triple post. (I don't like triple posting.)

[milkshake]

Timer has expired now.

[milkshake]

Kop is scum and the reason we lynched Arnold was because Kop and his buddy didn't want to lynch Kop. I doubted myself at the end of day 1 foolishly. Kop is a member of the mafia!

VOTE: Kop

[milkshake]

It was stupid. I thought Arnold wasn't interested in posting that much, because was scum. Whereas Kop seemed more passionate because posts were the only way for him to win. Fortunately it probably didn't affect anything. (Probably).

Anyway, Kop is definitely scum. Why are we still scum hunting based on non-reasons. It's highly possible that Kop's wagon petered out because of the influence of scum. Our best play is to vote Kop.

[milkshake]

Lynching Kop is the best play here I feel fairly certain about it now. I will eat something inedible such as a hat if I'm wrong.

[milkshake]

Agreed with Pine.

[milkshake]

I guess I have the hammer on Pine. Claim? Or?

Honestly I still think Kop/KainTepes is scum.

[milkshake]

No CC (obviously), 100% on board with Kain lynch.

[milkshake]

This is not ideal. Kop/Kain escapes yet another lynch thanks to his scum buddy.

Alisae/Kain scum team.

[milkshake]

So, KainTepes wasn't on SpadeAce... this just adds further evidence to KainTepes being scum.

Day 1, we almost lynch Kop, lynch town instead (due in part to SpadeAce not voting Kop). Day 2, we lynch Spade_Ace, and Kop/KainTepes is one of the few not voting him. (Yes, this includes me- obviously I was wrong about SpadeAce being town.)

VOTE: KainTepes

Don't ignore the obvious, people.

[milkshake]

Alisae, the voting pattern heavily indicates KainTepes is scum. On day one, partially due to (scum) Spade_Ace's vote switch, we did not lynch KainTepes (Kop). On day two, we lynched (scum) Spade_Ace and KainTepes was one of the few people not voting Spade_Ace.

[milkshake]

I find it really hard to believe that scum would lynch their own partner on Day 2 in this setup and this situation. Which leaves me and KainTepes as the possible remaining scum. If you look at Day 1, you can tell it's KainTepes not me.

[milkshake]

This is getting back to stuff I was harping on day 1, but he could have waxed poetic and written a heartfelt pop tune about Spade was scum, it wouldn't mean he was town unless he put his vote behind it. Heart felt pop tunes can be faked (just ask Billy Joel).

[milkshake]

Why?? Don't ignore an actual game-based reason for Kain to be scum because you think you can tell his role from some detail of the wording of his posts that tugged on your heart strings.

[milkshake]

I should have said "heart felt pop tunes are easy to fake."

[milkshake]

I gave you actual reasons which are better than "reads." KainTepes is the obvious best choice in this situation. If you want some much worse choices, TTTT or BTD6_maker because at least they weren't the hammer or the impetus on the Spade wagon. But it's still KainTepes.

[milkshake]

I don't want to lurker lynch on Day 3 :S

Is there anything else on BTD?

[milkshake]

I can't open the doc but I assume that you're thinking Kain is town because he voted scum? But that vote did not lead to a lynch, and was in fact removed (suspiciously) before the lynch. So are you really sure that should be evidence for Kain town?

[milkshake]

I'm sorry for flaking. I went to a different city for training and forgot about this site.